2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
As desperation grows in the tightest of fantasy leagues fewer options for a boost to your team remain. The slightest of adjustments can raise or drop you in the current standings. Players like Yadier Molina and Ryan Raburn offer great available help this week. Sitting players like Garrett Jones and even the talented Michael Young in favor of other stronger starters could prove to be the winning push your team needs.  Sit Em Garrett Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates | 82.1 percent Jones has been on a steady decline in the last half of the season (.211 average since the break). This week he faces both the Cardinals and the Astros. Two of his opposing pitchers are left-handed. This is extremely important due to his poor performance against lefties (.216 average against). This year the Cardinals and the Astros have held Jones to a combined .190 average in 84 at-bats. His current shoulder ailments also warrant some second-guessing on starting him. Michael Young | Texas Rangers | 100 percent This is the “guts” pick of the week. The Ballpark in Arlington has had a Coors Field effect on Michael Young. Good for him, except all of his games this week are on the road where he experiences a huge power drop-off (his OPS drops from .893 to .682). His two opponents this week, Oakland and LA Angels, have held Young to a .264 average in 110 at-bats this year, which is sub-par for him. Start Em Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals | 71.1 percent Yadier has been picking up steam lately, hitting .476 through his last seven games. All of his games will come on the road this week where he hits 50 points higher. He fairs well in his previous matchups against both opponents (Cubs, Pirates). Against the Pirates this year Yadier is hitting .438 with a 1.017 OPS through 32 at-bats. Against the Cubs this year he is hitting .303 through 30 at-bats. Ryan Raburn | Detroit Tigers | 85.7 percent If your league is close and your team is shallow on hitters, then Raburn should be your waiver wire acquisition in mind. So far in September he’s scorching opposing pitching at a .404 clip with an OPS of 1.167. He owns the KC pitching staff with a career .315 average and four home runs in only 54 at-bats against.  Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid Phil Hughes | New York Yankees | 85 percent Hughes will be facing a battery of hitters this week against the Rays and Red Sox. Unfortunately for him, both of his starts this week come at Yankee Stadium where his ERA balloons nearly a point and a half to 4.88. Since the All-Star Break, Hughes has been spiraling down while his ERA climbs higher (from 3.65 to 5.37). In previous outings this year Hughes was hit by the Rays, leaving him with a 4.97 ERA against. Also, against the Red sox this year, Hughes has 4.50 ERA through three starts. Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 47.5 percent Pitching on the road spells trouble for Pelfrey this week. On the road this year, Pelfrey’s ERA climbs from a superb 2.87 to a horrendous 5.30…what a difference a field makes. Both of his starts this week will come on the road, first against the Marlins, and then against the Phillies. Earlier this year Pelfrey was racked, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings against the Marlins. Historically, the Phillies line-up has a .277 average and a .341 OBP against Pelfrey. Two-Start Pitchers To Use Gavin Floyd | Chicago White Sox | 66.2 percent Through a couple outings this year and historically, Floyd has held this week’s opponents in check. Against the A’s, Floyd held them to one run in 7.1 innings earlier this year. The collective A’s lineup hits a meager .150 through 80 at-bats against him. Earlier this year Floyd was also able to keep the Angels limited to one run in 7.1 innings. Much like Oakland, Floyd has limited the Angels lineup to a weak .244 average against through 123 career at-bats. J.A. Happ | Houston Astros | 65.8 percent Happ runs into two weak offensive teams this week in Washington and Houston. Happ has faired poorly away from home this year, posting a 4.97 ERA. However, look for him to build on his dominance against both of these scrawny lineups this week. In previous action this year Happ has held the Nationals to three hits in five innings and has also kept the Pirates to only two runs in six innings, limiting both teams to a combined .176 average. All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports. Follow James on Twitter @BoltLife4Me Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Two-Start Pitchers, Sit Em, Start Em, MLB, James Bryce, Garrett Jones, Michael Young, Yadier Molina, Ryan Raburn, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Gavin Floyd, J.A. Happ, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros Add Comment  As your fantasy baseball marathons come down to the wire look to these players to help your team or keep them from hindering your team. Rookies’ Starlin Castro and Ike Davis should have stellar weeks for your team. Start ‘Em Starlin Castro |Chicago Cubs| 81 percent This 20-year old phenom has been a work in progress with his glove but clearly has been on offensive asset. This week Castro faces the Cardinals and Marlins. In 36 at-bats this year against, Castro has hit .361 and .359 since the All-Star break. This should be a strong sign that his numbers will keep pace for these games. Ike Davis |New York Mets| 35.4 percent Ike faces two opponents this week that really haven’t given a problem all year and on top of that they are at home where he’s hitting a solid .294. This is over a 50 point jump from his away splits. Pittsburgh is up first where Ike is hitting .500 in 10 at-bats. Ike’s next opponent has been more of a challenge. This year against Atlanta Ike has only hit .233. However, his OBP is .421 and his isolated power is fairly strong at .189. Look for him to buck that average trend and hit for some power against the Braves. Sit ‘Em Adam Jones |Baltimore Orioles| 84.5 percent Jones faces a tough road ahead this week with the Blue Jays and then the Yankees. Against the Blue Jays this year, Jones is hitting a weak .217 through 46 at-bats. His next opponent, the Yankees, have held him to a .216 average through 51 at-bats. Making matters worse for Jones, he will be facing three left-handed pitchers, against which he is only hitting .261, with a .293 OBP. Mike Napoli |Los Angeles Angels| 87 percent Napoli will be playing on the road for both series this week. His first stop is in Cleveland, at Progressive Field. His next stop is in St. Petersburg at Tropicana Field. Collectively at both stadiums, Napoli has an unimpressive career average of only .170, through 48 at-bats. Worse is the fact that all but one of the starting pitchers that Napoli will face is right-handed. Against righties this year Napoli is hitting .212 with a .279 OBP. All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports. Follow James on Twitter @BoltLife4Me Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Two-Start Pitchers, MLB, James Bryce, Adam Jones, Mike Napoli, Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Barry Enright, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, Jon Lester As fantasy leagues wind down and head into playoff mode, most owners generally have similar goals in mind at this juncture. Some owners are right smack in the middle of a battle for playoff position while others are looking forward to next season and the opportunity to start over. What you can expect to find in this week’s edition is a smattering of young players trying to impress their club and hopefully cement a spot on next year’s big league team. The three players in this week’s spotlight also happen to be the top three most added free agents in CBS Sportsline leagues. Leading off is Mr. Number Three…  Jhoulys Chacin, SP – Colorado Rockies – Owned in 45 percent of CBS leagues Jhoulys (pronounced Yo-lease) has been up from the minors, pitching primarily in the Rockies’ rotation for most of 2010. The spotlight shines brighter on him now mainly because he has begun to exhibit the skills to be a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher for years to come. In Chacin’s last four starts he is 3-1 and has allowed only four runs in those starts for an ERA of 1.38. He has also recorded 24 strikeouts while walking only eight batters. His ERA now stands at 3.65 on the season. He is showing that he belongs in the rotation for the remainder of the season as well as next season. The 22-year old Venezuelan righty was signed back in 2004 by the Rockies. He has ascended through the organization starting in rookie ball and all the way up. Last season for AA-Tulsa he started 18 games and was 8-6 with an ERA/WHIP of 3.15/1.18. Chacin also had an 86:35 K:BB ratio in those starts. His ownership will rise to 56 percent and with the Rockies holding onto an outside shot of earning a wild card berth, it’s time to strike. The Rockies are riding a nine game winning streak and they will continue to lean on Jhoulys to anchor the back-end of their rotation. You can add him with confidence, especially in keeper leagues as Chacin has proven that he belongs.  Danny Espinosa, 2B – Washington Nationals – Owned in 6 percent of CBS leagues Mr. Number Two in the spotlight this week has exploded onto the scene in Washington after being called up on September 1. Espinosa had a hit in his first game and a HR in the second. His coming out party was against the Mets on Sept. 6 when he went 4-5 with two HR’s, six RBI and 11 total bases. Espinosa is simply crushing NL pitching with an obviously unsustainable .355 average, and if you think that number is gaudy, how about his 1.079 OPS?? Allow me to clarify why these numbers are unsustainable (outside of the common sense factor). Espinosa has less than two full seasons of professional ball under his belt after being drafted in the third round in ’08. In ’09 Espinosa batted .264 and before his call-up he batted .264 this year. The power numbers however are different story because he did hit 18 bombs and drove in 72 runs in ’09 and 22 HR’s this year with 69 RBI. Besides the power, Espinosa adds speed to his repertoire as he showed by swiping 29 bases in ’09 and 25 this year. Washington has an obvious void at second base and will give Espinosa every chance to nail it down with a strong performance in the remaining games. His ownership rate will rise 13 points to 19%. This number is still quite low, especially if you need some pop from the 2B/MI positions. Espinosa is another no-brainer in keeper leagues.  Chris Narveson, SP – Milwaukee Brewers – Owned in 9 percent of CBS leagues Number one this week’s list, as well as CBS’s list, is the 28-year-old journeyman pitcher for Milwaukee. While his overall numbers may not blow you away (11-7 and a 5.20 ERA), his recent stretch has been quite impressive. He has not lost since July 28th. In his last seven outings, Narveson is 3-0 and has allowed a stingy 15 runs over 40 innings while posting a 3.38 ERA. Since the all-star break, he has posted a 3.95 ERA with 44 K’s and only 14 walks issued. Impressed yet? If not, consider this, opposing batters are hitting .237 against him in that span. I am not about to try to blow you away with impressive minor league stats. I will only mention that Narveson has posted an ERA as low as 1.98 and as high as 5.77 in nine minor league seasons. The range on his WHIP will not give you any better of an insight into his skills as those numbers ranged from 0.860 to 1.602. So you will have to go by this year’s stats and the fact that he has never had as much of an opportunity as he has this season. Narveson has logged 143 innings and started 24 games for the Brew Crew. With little pressure on him for the remainder of the season and with teams constantly searching for pitching help, Narveson‘s ownership will surge to 28 percent. He may not be a strong keeper candidate, but he can help fantasy teams in the final weeks. Honorable Mention: Mike Morse – 1B/OF – Washington Nationals – Owned in 9 percent of CBS leagues Snuck into the OF picture for the Nat’s. Batting .484 in his last eight games. As long as he’s getting regular AB’s, you can take a flyer on Morse. Dillon Gee – SP – New York Mets – Currently owned in 0 percent of CBS leagues Gee had an admirable first outing for the Mets – 7 IP, 2H, 1 ER, 4 K’s – and earned the win against Washington. He lines up to be a two-start pitcher if the Mets don’t limit his innings (168 innings total in ’10) Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who are your NL waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, Fantasy Baseball, NL Only, Waiver Wire, National League, Jhoulys Chacin, Danny Espinosa, Chris Narveson, Mike Morse, Dillon Gee, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, Milawaukee Brewers, New York Mets The NL-Central boasts a few great pickups this week and one real surprise Sit ‘Em candidate. While there is great outfield help abound, a couple could use some rest on your bench. Low-percentage owned pitchers rounds out the help in this week’s fantasy baseball forecast. Congratulations to those of you who followed last week’s advice in starting Neil Walker and sitting Dexter Fowler.  Start ‘Em Jonny Gomes | Cincinnati Reds | 36.1 percent He hasn’t been as hot as he was before the All-Star break, but Gomes might be able to find a spark this week against some weak pitching and playing in hitter-friendly parks. His lifetime stats at Coors field include a .409 average and three home runs in 22 at-bats. Against the four starters for Colorado, Gomes is hitting .474 with five home runs in 19 at-bats for his career. He’s also hitting .310 with two home runs through 29 career at-bats against the Pittsburgh starters. Colby Rasmus | St. Louis Cardinals | 78.7 percent Look for the newly disgruntled Cardinal to have a great week. Against Atlanta this year Colby is hitting .600 in ten at-bats with one home run. His bigger strength though, is hitting against the Brewers. This year against the Brewers Colby is hitting .393 with a .514 OBP and three home runs in 28 at-bats. Also, all of Colby’s games are away games this week, in which he’s hitting .305 (79 points higher than at home).  Sit ‘ Em Luke Scott | Baltimore Orioles | 96.7 percent One of the streakier players in baseball, Scott is headed for a cold-snap this week. All six of his games are away from Camden Yards. On the road Scott is hitting .222 with a .294 OBP (128 points lower than his home split!). You’d think that Scott was playing for Colorado with those splits. In 137 career at-bats against the Yankees, Scott has a .204 average and slugs a weak .365. Jayson Werth | Philadelphia Phillies | 100 percent This is the “do you or don’t you have the stones” call of the week. The Phillies start their week off against the Marlins in which Werth is hitting .189 in 37 at-bats against them. Against the three Marlins starters that Werth will face, he has a career line of 1-23 (.043). While their second opponent, the Mets, Jayson has great numbers against overall. However, when you isolate his Citi Field stats they lose all value. At Citi Field this year, Worth is hitting .190 in 21 at-bats. You should also keep in mind Werth’s stats with runners in scoring position (.150 113 at-bats this year)  Two-Start Pitchers To Use Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 16.5 percent Bumgarner's season has been nothing impressive so far, unless you look at his away game stats (2.62 ERA, 5-2 record), where both of his starts will take place. Against both Arizona and San Diego, Bumgarner has a 2.57 ERA and two wins this year. Pitching away at PETCO Park should give him a boost too. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 39.2 percent You may hesitate starting him this week because of his recent stint on the DL, but Slowey has posted great stats against the Royals and Indians. Against Cleveland he is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Against the Royals he is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA. Also in Slowey's favor is his one start at home this week, in the best park for keeping the long-ball contained, Target Field.  Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 48.5 percent This week poses a tough challenge for the Mets' Mike Pelfrey. He might not be facing the most formidable lineup in the Nationals, but they have proven a difficult challenge for him this season (4.63 ERA in 12 innings). Historically against the Phillies, Pelfrey has allowed a horrendous ten home runs in only 70 innings pitched. That doesn't exactly make for winning ball games. His numbers against the heart of the Phillies order is horrible too (.330 BAA in 88 at-bats). Tommy Hunter | Texas Rangers | 47.8 percent This week Hunter faces a murderer’s row of offensive opponents against the Blue Jays and Yankees. Combined against the two teams during his career, Hunter has given up 15 runs in 16.1 innings of work. During this week he’ll be pitching in the fourth and seventh best ballparks for home runs. Since the All-Star break Hunter has been crushed by giving up home runs. Before the break he gave up three in 42 innings. Since the break he’s given up 14 in 56 innings. That’s a jump from 0.64HR/9 innings to 2.25HR/9 innings, almost a 400% increase in HR/9. All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports. Follow James on Twitter @BoltLife4Me Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Two-Start Pitchers, MLB, James Bryce, Jonny Gomes, Colby Rasmus, Luke Scott, Jayson Werth, Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Slowey, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Hunter, Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets Fantasy Baseball NL-Only Waiver Wire 09/04/2010
My team recently lost the services of Manny Ramirez, who Ihad to replace with Jeff Keppinger (came off DL)…talk about desperation. So if you still have something to play for, check out the players in this week’s edition. You never know who you might uncover…  Cory Leubke Cory Leubke | SP | San Diego Padres | Owned in zero percent of CBS leagues You may be wondering (out loud or to yourself) how in the world could anyone recommend picking up a pitcher who is owned by NO ONE in all of CBS leagues?? Well, the simple explanation is that the Padres are in desperate need of a fresh arm in their rotation, and Leubke was tearing through the minors. The issue with the Pads’ rotation start with the inning ceiling for their young pitchers. The 22-year-old phenom Matt Latos has already logged almost 150 innings on the season. Clayton Richard is at his career high of 167 innings. Throw in Wade LeBlanc, also at a career high of 143 innings, and has had a horrific August posting a 3-3 record with an abysmal 6.47 ERA. Lastly, let’s not forget to mention Kevin Correia, who managed to one-up LeBlanc by also going 3-3 in the month of August, but with an ERA of 7.20. Oh, there’s one more arm in the Pads’ rotation. How could I overlook Jon “The Savior” Garland? With 13 wins (good for 8th in the NL) and a sleek 3.29 ERA, Garland has provided the Padres a solid 164 innings of pitching. He seems to be the only one not wearing down. [Queue the Superman music]… and flying in to save the rotation, Mr. Leubke. He has the distinct honor of being drafted three times (18th round in ’04 – PIT; 22nd round in ’06 – TEX; 1st round in ’07 – SD). He also threw a near perfect game against Team Canada while pitching for Team USA in the ’09 Baseball World Cup. Leubke has only logged a combined 114 innings on the season through two levels of the minor leagues. He’s posted an impressive 10-1 record in 17 starts with a 2.68 ERA/.982 WHIP. While not a dominating strike-out pitcher, Leubke managed to post a very solid 3:1 K:BB ratio. There is enough upside here to take a chance, especially since SD couldn’t be more in the thick of the playoff race.  Carlos Zambrano Carlos Zambrano | SP | Chicago Cubs | Owned in 61 percent of CBS leagues I would venture to guess that everyone pretty much knows what they need to know about Big Z at this stage of the game. To say he’s had some ups and downs this season would be tremendously under-stating what’s happened thus far. So let’s take a step back and concentrate on the present. Since being reinserted into the starting rotation, Z is 3-0. For the month of August he has posted a 2.23 ERA, which includes two relief appearances in 32.1 total innings. In addition, he has 25 K’s (the bright side), but also has 23 BB’s. Granted, these are numbers that do not make fantasy owners very comfortable, but at this point, we’ll take the wins and strike-outs. By next week, Zambrano’s ownership will rise to 71 percent in CBS leagues so owners are definitely taking notice. If he happens to be available in your league, and you have a spot open on your roster, you can ride Big Z to the finish line. The hard-luck Cubbies have very little left to play for, so hopefully he will thrive in friendly confines.  Freddy Sanchez Freddy Sanchez | 2B | San Francisco Giants | Owned in 18 percent of CBS leagues Here’s another example of a wily veteran who is coming on strong towards the end of the season. He’s flown under the radar most of the season, starting ’10 on the DL and not joining the Giants until May 19. Sanchez started off on the right foot, hitting .317 after his return in May. He followed that up by hitting .280 in June with 12 RBI. However, things took a turn for the worse and the wheels completely came off in July. Sanchez hit .231 with only 28 total bases in 108 AB’s. Of course just when owners began to write him off, Sanchez put together a very solid month of August. He hit .356 along with a very impressive OPS of .902. He also had 45 total bases in the same number of games – 28, as he played in the previous month. Sanchez does not provide a lot of home runs or RBIs, hitting out of the number two slot in the lineup, but can certainly help with your average and runs scored. He’s number five on the Most Added list for next week with his ownership jumping to 27 percent. Honorable Mention: Xavier Nady | 1B/OF | Chicago Cubs | Owned in 7 percent of CBS leagues After Lee was traded to the ATL, Nady has become an everyday player. He hit .320 in August and had an OPS of .853. He could put up decent stats flying under the radar in Chicago. Scott Podsednik | OF | |Los Angeles Dodgers | Owned in 65 percent of CBS leagues The Manny-wood production is shutdown in La-La land and Podsednik will benefit the most. He hit .304 in August after hitting .346 in July. He will get on base, score runs and steal some bases. Logan Morrison | 1B | FLorida Marlins | Owned in 27 percent of CBS leagues Morrison’s ownership has been slow to rise. He doesn’t hit for a lot of power for a first baseman but has been hitting for a good average - .303 in August, and managed a .864 OPS. He will continue to get regular AB’s and is worthy of a roster spot in NL leagues. Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah Who are your NL waiver wire gems of the week? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, Fantasy Baseball, NL Only, Waiver Wire, National League, Logan Morrison, Scott Podsednik, Xavier Nady, Freddy Sanchez, Carlos Zambrano, Cory Leubke  Don't be fooled, Sabermetrics can be simple too! SABR has provided us with some complex statistics to interpret Baseball production, but sometimes we need to take a step back and look at some simple stats to uncover telling information. In part three of our Sabermetric Series, we're looking at K/9 and how to use it for Fantasy pwnage. There is no better counting statistic to measure the dominance of a pitcher than the Strikeout. The Strikeout is one of the few statistics which the Pitcher has the ability to allow his skill to show as compared to statistics where defense is a factor. It's no coincidence that the league leaders in Strikeouts make up a list of the who's who in our Fantasy game. But to look simply at the number of strikeouts a pitcher tallies would devalue pitchers who have thrown in a limited number of innings.... Say hello to K/9, Strikeouts per nine Innings The formula for K/9 is: K/9 = Strikeouts / (Innings Pitched / 9) A simple percentage of Strikeouts to batters faced is a telling statistic, but K/9 presents the Strikeouts against the base of one full baseball game. The baseline allows for interpretation in meaning full baseball terms, as compared to a percentage. For example, Bud Norris strikes out 23.4% of the batters he faces and Norris tallies 9.20 Strikeouts per nine innings. The strike out percentage doesn't indicate how well he'll tally Strikeouts while K/9 does. When evaluating K/9, any pitcher approaching a Strikeout per Inning has pitched very well. Anything above that is very special for starting pitcher, but for a reliever it could be skewed by appearances where the pitcher is in a favorable situation. The only starting pitchers to produce a K/9 of nine or more in at least 100 IP this year according to Fan Graphs are: Brandon Morrow - 10.95 Yovanni Gallardo - 9.99 Jered Weaver - 9.89 Clayton Kershaw - 9.75 Francisco Liriano - 9.69 Jon Lester - 9.51 Tim Lincecum - 9.47 Jhoulys Chacin - 9.39 Jonathan Sanchez - 9.27 Mat Latos - 9.25 Bud Norris - 9.20 Manny Parra - 9.13 Cole Hamels - 9.10 One name that may stand out in that list could be Manny Parra, but as an owner of his I can attest that many of his poor outings have been full of Strikeouts. I've owned him in a points league where his Strikeout tallies have helped me fade the negative points he racked up in his worst appearances. This probably goes a long way to explaining the persistence of the Brewers as they keep sending him out there every fifth game. With that said, you don't want to own Parra. Let him and the Brewers figure things out and keep an eye on the situation, but for the rest of this year, hes a very risky start. Instead, take a look at Norris as the playoffs start this summer, at only 12% owned in Y! leagues, Bud Norris could be available in your league. Jhoulys Chacin is another great option and is only owned in 11% of Y! leagues, but there is a risk that the Rockies will move Chacin between MLB and AAA. As I said earlier, anything above nine K/9 is special. But a pitcher who finds his K/9 above seven is still doing a lot of the right things. Like Gio Gonzalez for example, who has put up a 7.49 K/9 and is only owned in 52% of leagues. Or how about the 23% owned Travis Wood and his 7.19 K/9 and his 10% owned teammate Homer Bailey, with a 7.17 K/9. It doesn't matter what your format is, Strikeouts matter in your league. Anyone of the guys listed above is going to help you increase your strikeout numbers. On the other end of the spectrum, there are guys that "pitch to contact" or just haven't been pitching well. Nick Blackburn at 3.52 and John Lannan at 3.73 have put up the lowest K/9 with at least 100 IP. It should be no surprise that both of these pitchers have high ERA's, WHIPs, and have been disappointing pitchers in 2010. Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, K/9, Sabermetrics, SABR, Fangraphs, Brandon Morrow, Yovanni Gallardo, Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum, Jhoulys Chacin, Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos, Bud Norris, Manny Parra, Cole Hamels The FantasyFix.com is proud to present part two of our final fantasy baseball roundtable of the 2010 Major League Baseball season. We asked five prominent voices in the fantasy sports industry the following question: As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, identify one pitcher that you are keeping close tabs on, in anticipation of the 2011 season. Briefly describe their 2010, why you are keeping tabs, and what you expect from them in the 2011 season.  Bud Norris Bud Norris | RHP | Houston Astros One of the best ways to find value on draft day is late round pitching. Mat Latos and Clay Buchholz are prime examples for this season. With that in mind, the player I am going to be keeping a keen eye on in September is Astros’ starter Bud Norris. As a prospect, Norris had been highly touted due to a plus-fastball and power breaking ball. However, the lack of a true third pitch (his changeup) and concerns over the combination of his size and high-effort delivery had caused many prospect gurus to foresee a late inning role in the bullpen. Norris, at least for now, has silenced any of those concerns. ERA aside, which we’ll get into later, Norris has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball since July 1st. Now with over 100 innings under his belt this season, Norris has compiled a 9.27 K/9, good for eighth best among major league starters. That K/9 ranks him above Jon Lester, Mat Latos, Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez to name a few. His command was poor to start the season, but in July Norris posted a respectable 3.45 BB/9 and this month he has shown tremendous improvement in his BB/9 rate, lowering it to 2.48. Stuff wise, Norris can miss bats with the best of em. His 24.6 percent whiff rate puts him among names like Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. About that five-plus ERA…Norris has been a victim of his environment this season. His BABIP against is probably a bit high (.331), but his strand rate (runners left on base) is quite low. Norris’ strand rate is at 63.8 percent, which is well below the league average of 72 percent. Both his BABIP against and strand rate have been products of one of the worst defenses in baseball and both rates should improve next season. These are two factors that Norris can’t control on his own and two big reasons that his xFIP is at 3.91, over a full run lower than his ERA. The best part about targeting Norris in the late rounds of 2011 drafts is that he is all upside with just about no risk. Sure, the Astros are not going to give him a lot of run support and the defense may not improve much, but you know that Norris is going to rack up the strikeouts when he’s out there. If he continues to show the strikeout potential and improved control/command in September, Bud Norris is going to be a player I target in every league on draft day 2011.  Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of FantasyBaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com. Twitter @FB365. You can also read his work at Fire Brand of the American League and Project Prospect.  Madison Bumgarner Madison Bumgarner | LHP | San Francisco Giants On a San Francisco Giants team that is loaded with terrific starting pitching, Madison Bumgarner is currently a gem tucked away at the back end of the rotation. The former number ten pick overall of the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft has provided the Giants with a reliable option this season behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez. Bumgarner, 21, is a 6'4'', 215 pound left-handed youngster who demonstrates good strike zone control with all of his pitches. Prior to the 2010 season, Bumgarner was praised for having a mid-90's fastball with an above-average slider and change-up and was ranked as the number fourteen overall best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Madison was making a name for himself and was easily the favorite to land the number five spot in the rotation when Spring Training ended. Then something happened; Bumgarner lost velocity on his fastball. His fastball was sitting in the high-80's to low-90's, allowing hitters to tee-off against him near the end of March. Bumgarner would open the season in Triple-A Fresno where the Giants could work on his mechanics, hoping to reestablish his fastball to a respectable level. After compiling a 7-1 record with a 3.16 ERA over 14 starts in the Pacific Coast League, which included a 59/22 K/BB ratio over 82 2/3 innings, Bumgarner was finally ready to join the Giants during the month of June. Since his callup, Bumgarner hasn't been Stephen Strasburg dominant, but he's been consistently good during every outing (minus his last start against the Cincinnati Reds - yikes). During his first full month at the Big League level, he held a 4-2 record over six starts with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and posted a 7.0 K/9 ratio and three home runs over 39 2/3 innings. While AT&T Park is known as a "pitcher's park", Madison has struggled while pitching at home this season, as he's posted an 0-2 record over five starts with a 6.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and has allowed five home runs. On the road, Madison has posted a 5-2 record with a 2.62 ERA over seven starts. So what does Madison need to do so that he can be successful for the rest of 2010 and 2011? First thing is first, Madison will need to do a better job against right-handed hitters. RHH are hitting .299/.340/.473 against him with seven home runs. As expected, he's held lefties to hitting just .239/.311/.418 with just three home runs. To this point of the season, Bumgarner has also received some help from hitters, as according to FanGraphs, batters have swung at 30% of his pitches that were outside of the strike zone, which can be attributed to Bumgarner's ability to remain around the strike zone as the game moves along. As far as pitch types, Bumgarner will need to steer clear of throwing his low-90's fastball over and over to the hitter during one at-bat. I've noticed that he will pump 4-5 fastballs in a row to the hitter, instead of mixing in his change-up or slider when he falls behind. For fantasy purposes, Madison Bumgarner should be targeted on your keeper teams and NL-Only teams for next season. Depending on how the Giants decide to handle his innings the rest of the way (He's already surpassed his 2009 total of 141 innings between the minors and bigs) - he becomes a late-round number five or six starter for your fantasy team. Remember, Bumgarner will be 21-years old for a good chunk of the 2011 season and while he hasn't been the dominant lefty we all thought he would be, Bumgarner still has the talent to become a number two or three starter for the Giants down the road. Along with Bumgarner pitching in "pitcher friendly" AT&T Park, he also plays in the weak NL West, which is up for grabs every season. For the 2011 season, Bumgarner will certainly be back in the Giants' rotation as a number three or four starter. Fantasy owners should expect more development from Bumgarner's off-speed pitches, which will surely help his low-90's fastball against right-handed hitters. With Madison get a full workload in 2011, he's capable of posting a ~4.00 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and just over six strikeouts per nine innings.  Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for BaseballPress.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow Reggie on Twitter @sacksjacked.  Chris Tillman Chris Tillman | RHP | Baltimore Orioles My love for Orioles pitchers runs pretty deep, for whatever reason. I mean there’s nothing better than a starting pitcher on a losing team in the worst division for pitchers in the league. Yet there I’ve been, on guys like Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Hayden Penn, Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Loewen, and even Sidney Ponson to name a few recent ones. I can pretty much count on one finger how many of those guys have been successful. Enter Chris Tillman. After putting up high strikeout totals to go along with high walk totals over his first three years in the minors, it looked like we had another Daniel Cabrera on our hands: lots of missed bats, just as many missed strike zones. But last year it finally started to come together after he put together a nifty 9.22 K/9 to go along with a 2.42 BB/9 in the minors. But as soon as he entered the majors, balls stopped missing bats and started getting planted into the outfield bleachers. Still, a 5.40 ERA from a rookie pitcher in the AL East is probably what should be expected. Heck, even everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher two years ago, David Price, put up a 4.42 ERA in his first year starting. Then came 2010. Again, Tillman was pretty much a train wreck in the majors, while finding success in the minors. In fact, Tillman has seemed to regress since last season. He’s basically mixed good start with awful start this year, while seeing his K/9 decrease and BB/9 increase since last year. His ERA is inflated due to an absurd 54.8% strand rate, but it still sits well above 5 when all is accounted for. However, when he has had some success, it has been against some pretty solid offenses: Toronto, the Yankees, and Texas in Texas, in the middle of summer. So when he puts it together, he can be pretty solid. Tillman’s working on adding a two-seamer to his repertoire, which could help some. Even more, not getting jerked around by the organization, getting bounced up and down from the big league club could help just as much. Either way, I’ll be watching his September call-up closely, and even more so his offseason. He’s still young at 22 years old, and is super talented, so it’s just too soon to write him off just yet. If he shows any encouraging signs of improvement, I wouldn’t be afraid to grab him with one of my last picks next year. Might as well take the plunge on a guy with big strikeout upside.  Written by Eric Yeomans. If you’re tired of the same old number-crunching fantasy sites, and can’t fill your fix of fantasy shenanigans over at my friend’s www.milliondollarsleeper.com, then swing by my blog at http://mister52pickup.wordpress.com/. Here you’ll find daily coverage on basically whatever comes to mind on any of the big four fantasy sports, and even the occasional sports story that has no fantasy relevance. But if numbers are your thing, then check out http://www.profootballfocus.com/, where there is an absolutely insane amount of statistical analysis that goes on there that is completely unmatched by the rest. There, you can check out my weekly IDP columns The Monday Morning Cornerback, where I take a look at the week that was, and The Pick-Six, where I take a look at some solid buys for the week to come. Also, feel free to follow me on twitter @PFF_Yoms.  Jeremy Hellickson Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay Rays Originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 Major League Baseball Draft, Jeremy Hellickson entered 2010 rated as the 18th best prospect by Baseball America. Prior to getting the call, Hellickson appeared in 109 games in six Minor League Baseball seasons, earning a 49-16 record while posting a 2.71 ERA. More impressively, "J-Hell" racked up 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and achieved a 4.63 strikeout to walk ratio through 588+ innings pitched. Since getting the call to the big show for his 8/2 debut, J-Hell is 3-0 in four starts with a 2.05 ERA and has recorded 8.54 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents have been hitting a measly .177 against Jeremy, and of those who reached base, 82.4% have been left stranded. The Rays sent him back to A+ after his 8/20 start versus Oakland as a technicality. While Hellickson is slated to get called back up when rosters expand, Jeremy is likely headed to the bullpen. His fantasy baseball value will be minimal, although he may be worth the stream if he earns a spot start versus the right opponent. Although many of the statistics used in this article are taken from the small sample of MLB appearances, I'm confident Hellickson's success in MiLB was not a fluke. I expect Hellickson to be a solid #3/4 starter for fantasy baseball owners in 2011. His excellent command leads us to believe he will provide owners with miniscule ratios and a plethora of strikeouts. Written by Fonzy for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow the Fonz on Twitter @TheFantasyFix  Jordan Zimmermann Jordan Zimmermann | RHP | Washington Nationals One of the most highly touted prospects in the minor leagues heading into the 2009 season, Jordan Zimmermann should be on your radar for 2011. Let's look at his minor league career averages prior to his callup in 2009 (2010 was rehab-focused on a pitch count, so not representative of his talent): 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 195.2 IP 9.9 K/9 3.1 BB/9 0.7 HR/9 Clearly, Zimmermann is a guy who gets a good number of Ks, doesn't walk too many batters, and keeps the in the park. It should come as no surprise that he had elite-caliber ratios on the way up. Looking at his 2009 numbers, we find a pitcher who had a little bit of bad luck (.339 BABIP, 67.5 LOB%, 12.2% HR/FB) behind his disappointing 4.63 ERA. By normalizing those numbers to league averages, though, his ERA should have been closer to 3.50 than 4.60 (FIP of 3.59). I chalk up some of his struggles, particularly in July of 2009, to the budding elbow injury that eventually shut him down until last week. During June, Zimmermann appeared to be turning the corner (8.9 K/9, 1.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), and I believe that is a glimpse of what he can offer us in 2011. The problem is that he had the surgery, returned about a year afterward as expected, and was promptly shelled for 5 ER by the Cardinals. Now, St. Louis can do that to nearly anyone, so you can't really draw much of a conclusion from that game. Regardless of the sample size, his luck was worse than ever in that game (.452 BABIP, 52.6 LOB%, and one shiny dinger from Sir Albert Pujols himself). The rest of 2010 will tell us a lot about Zimmermann. Can he keep the ball in the park like he did in the minors? His 43% GB rate suggests he will, although there are examples of GB pitchers who can't (Jorge De La Rosa, I'm talking to you). Can he continue to mow down batters post-surgery? Will his control hold up on a rebuilt elbow? These questions are important. Stephen Strasburg is following his path, pitching well for a large part of his rookie campaign, only to go down with a UCL injury that will result in Tommy John surgery as well. In other words, their "new" franchise pitcher is out for a year, while their previous franchise candidate will be more than 18 months removed from the surgery by opening day. This is Jordan Zimmerman's chance to take the rotation anchor role and run with it. I'll be watching you Jordan. And I expect you will be up to the task. Tommy Landry (http://twitter.com/tommy_landry), co-founder of RotoExperts.com and long time veteran of the fantasy sports industry, is the Fantasy Basketball Examiner for Examiner.com and is also a respected social media and marketing blogger on http://ReturnOnNow/. He was a finalist for the 2008 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Series of the Year. What pitchers will you be targeting in 2011? Let us know by leaving a comment or replying to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, 2011, Pitchers, Roundtable, Prospects, Madison Bumgarner, Jeremy Hellickson, Bud Norris, Chris Tillman, Jordan Zimmermann | CategoriesAll NJ SEO Company
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