2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Daniel Hudson (credits below) This is part 1 of our 30 part series previewing every starting rotation in the league. First up: the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona made one of the more interesting moves this offseason when they dealt top prospect Jarrod Parker to Oakland for Trevor Cahill. Along with Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson, Cahill will be a part of an exciting young trio of starters that I think gives Arizona the best chance to win the NL West. But from a fantasy perspective, I’m leery of all three. Kennedy’s sub-3.00 ERA (2.88) put him in a group with just 15 other players who were able to get under that arbitrary 3.00 mark. He also won 21 games, struck out over eight batters per nine innings, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 3.50. That’s just an insane season, and ESPN’s player rater said Kennedy was the 7th best starter in 2011. Coming off that kind of season, Kennedy is sure to be drafted fairly high. It’s hard to say what the market will be for him exactly without the help of average draft position from mock drafts, but if I had to guess, I imagine he’ll be around the 15th pitcher taken and no lower than the 20th pitcher taken. Based on his roto numbers from last year you’d think that was appropriate if not a bit of a steal, but when you look at the other numbers, you see that Kennedy shouldn’t be drafted as a top 20 starter. First of all, the best ERA predictors (xFIP and SIERA) say Kennedy’s ERA should have been at least half a run higher last year (around 3.50). A lot of the gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA is a result of his luck on balls in play (.270 BABIP) and his luck stranding runners (79.2% LOB%). To be fair, both of those numbers were aided by a defense that ranked tenth in defensive efficiency last year. However, those numbers were far enough from the mean (especially the LOB%) that some regression should be expected despite the fact that Arizona will field basically the same defense. Because Kennedy is such a young pitcher, it’s absolutely possible that he continues to improve and that his advanced skills could mitigate some of the regression. His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates all improved last year. If that trend continues, the regression won’t hit as hard. However, with some level of regression highly likely and the near certainty fact that Kennedy won’t win 21 games again, I’ll probably pass on Kennedy unless he slips outside the top 20 pitchers to about the 9th round. Hudson is a bit of a different case. His ERA was lower than his xFIP and SIERA, but the difference wasn’t substantial, and he was fairly luck neutral in the BABIP and LOB% categories. Essentially, Hudson pitched in 2011 much like he did in his 100 innings with Arizona in 2010 with the main difference being his incredible luck in 2010 that carried him to a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The thing that concerns me about Hudson is that he seems to have traded some power for some control in 2011. His K/9 dropped a full point, but his walk rate also fell from 2.55 to 2.03. I’m sure his manager and pitching coach love this improved control, but as a fantasy owner, I want the K’s. The key to Hudson’s value this season will be his ability to regain some of the ability to miss bats that he exhibited in the minors and during his first stretch in the majors. Hudson is likely to be drafted in an appropriate spot, and he should be a solid pick as a 3rd or 4th starter because there’s some upside and not a ton of downside. Finally, we turn to Cahill. Your initial reaction might be to think that the move from the Oakland Coliseum to Chase Field would be a downgrade for Cahill. While the expansive foul territory in Oakland will be missed, Chase Field is deeper than the Coliseum in almost every part of the park. And the move will be good for him in other respects. First of all, Cahill is a heavy groundball pitcher. His groundball rate was 56% the last two seasons, and Arizona’s top ten defense should really help him turn more of those balls into outs. Second, Arizona also has an offense that is significantly better than the poo-poo platter Oakland sent to the plate last year. He should see a few more wins as a result. The move could also have a positive impact on his strikeout rate. I’ve written before that facing pitchers could lead to an increase of about 15-20 strikeouts for a high strikeout pitcher. Cahill is not a high strikeout pitcher as his best K/9 was his 6.37 mark last year. However, Cahill struck out almost ten batters per nine innings in the minors. Moreover, his K/9 has gone from 4.53 to 5.40 to 6.37 in the majors. If his progression in that department continues and he gets 5-10 extra K’s thanks to the NL, then Cahill could potentially hit 7.50 K/9. Cahill didn’t have the best control in the minors and regressed in that department last year (2.88 to 3.55). So he may be a WHIP killer. But the 4.16 ERA and 1.43 WHIP from last year may scare a lot of people off meaning Cahill could potentially be a nice bargain. Personally, I think some of the upside will be realized but not all of it. There’s a moderate bargain to be had. I should probably warn you mixed-leaguers off Josh Collmenter before I wrap this up. Don’t be fooled by his 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from last year. His xFIP was 4.14, he was lucky on balls in play (.255 BABIP), and his K/9 was below 6.00. He’s still young and did post good numbers in the minors, so he’s a definite NL-only option and by no means certain not to ever be relevant again in mixed leagues. But he’s not right now. Oh, and Joe Saunders sucks. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad to be back, baby! You can tell him you wish he would go away again and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (September 3, 2011 - Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America) Add Comment  Ryan Howard (credits below) Knowing the players NOT to draft can be just as important as knowing the ones TO draft. There are two main components to everyone’s success when it comes to playing fantasy sports. The first and probably most important is the draft. Knowing the right players to draft, and the right players to stay away from could make or break your ENTIRE season; the second is the waiver wire. Just because you had a great or not so great draft doesn’t mean that it’s all over for you. You can’t win on draft day and you can’t lose either. If you put the right amount of time and research into the players throughout the year you can easily make up for a subpar draft. One way to be able to decrease your chances of having to hit the waiver wire often is to know what you are doing on draft day. Creating the perfect line up for your specific league on draft day can really get you headed in the right direction. A couple of strategies I like to use when drafting my teams are based on scoring. If your league is a rotisserie league where you get points based on the ranking your team is in a specific category (10 points for the most HR, 1 point for the least amount of steals etc.) you can draft players to dominate a certain grouping of categories. Case in point if your league has a 5 category set up of HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP for hitters you can draft high run, high steal, high OBP players, let them create a substantial lead in the rankings then look to trade for more power oriented players. You may lose a spot or two in steals, runs scored and OBP. However, come the end of the season you’ll gain points in HR and RBI, which will even itself out. In head to head leagues, a lot of players like the super star / super upside model. They will draft 4 or 5 stud players, then a bunch of role players, then a few upside guys who may or may not break out. This may work if you draft the right set of guys, but some times it isn’t that easy. Build a team of depth, get a lot of very similar players on your roster. Get a lot of 20 HR runs, as opposed to some 30 HR guys and some 8 HR guys in the end the consistency of your team will show and it will get you major points. Sticking with the tradition of this article, here are the top 5 players you may want to skip when looking at the 1B position. Top 5 Players NOT to Draft in 2012: Michael Morse (1B, WSH) exploded onto the scene in 2011 belting 31 home runs 95 runs batted in and an on base percentage above .360, only the second season in his major league career reaching double-digit HR figures and the first time in his career driving in more than 50 runs. Granted, the sample sizes were extremely small for the year’s prior but Morse had been in the majors since 2005 and for some reason he couldn’t keep himself on the field, and that was with the Mariners who haven’t had a talented 1B for nearly a decade. Morse reminds me a lot of Jorge Cantu who broke out in 2005 with 28 home runs and 117 runs batted in and then again hit 29 homers in 2008. Problem was each year following his production dropped by nearly 50%. Cantu has since played for 3 teams in two seasons and hasn’t been able to find a permanent home. Morse is one of those guys you should shy away from unless you can steal him really late in the draft. The speculation that the Nationals might sign Prince Fielder (1B, FA) certainly doesn’t bode well for Morse either. There is nothing worse then knowing that you failed to extend your teams season with 2 outs in the 9th inning of game 5 in the National League Divisional Series, or is there? Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) found out the hard way unfortunately with a torn Achilles on the final play of the NLDS in 2011 that will end up costing him 5 to 6 months just to recover. The good they came away with from the 1 – 0 loss and the injury is that the season is over, surgery was done and you know that you can get better. I am not totally convinced though, the injury was to his left foot (the push off foot for a big power hitting lefty like Howard) was ripped completely and needed repairs. Howard is turning 33 this year which can often times be the beginning of the down turn for players, but that’s not his biggest worry. Howard is 6’4” tall and 240 pounds, uses all of his lower body to hit home runs and pushes off with his left foot with massive explosion, his body frame and size will not make it easy for him to continue on his torrid home run pace. Reports are floating that he will be good to go by opening day, which is promising, but please be hesitant. Pre-All Star Break Adam Lind (1B, TOR) had what looked to be an absolutely amazing year. I remember a span when he couldn’t stop hitting home runs, of course he was sitting on my bench when he did it and almost simultaneously with me starting him he began slumping. Before the mid summer classic Lind had knocked 16 different pitches out of the park was hitting at a clip of .300 and drove in 52 runs. The second half story was shocking to say the least. Lind finished the season only hitting 10 more homers, driving in only 35 more runs and had an OBP under .234 a number more than 100 points lower than his first half number. Most people were sucked in with his first half numbers after the completely dismal season he had in 2010, I hope you won’t get sucked in again. Aubrey Huff (1B, SF) another player to slump big time from one year to the next, saw a major drop in every offensive statistical category, including HR, 2B, R, and RBI. He also dropped nearly 50 points in average and 80 points in his on base percentage. His home stadium isn’t that friendly to left-handed hitters not named Barry Bonds and it caused him to slack a lot in 2011. You may look at his career numbers and say well he has been able to have one good, one bad over the last 6 seasons but when looking at his home and away splits in 2010 he played significantly better away than at home, and then in 2011 the same thing the only problem being he didn’t play well on the road either. If he continues this trend he is nothing more than a stow away player someone not worth drafting unless absolutely desperate. It is known everywhere that the Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most hitter heavy parks in all of baseball. Most players who have no business mashing the ball have the ability to destroy it far, and deep. Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) was thought to be that guy, he just hasn’t been. Moreland got his time to show his stuff to MLB pitchers in 2010 where he was able to knock 9 big flys in just 145 At Bats over a 47 game span. He got his big break in 2011 and was given the opportunity to start for the majority of the year. In 2011, Moreland increased his at bats by more than 300 but the rest of the numbers didn’t reflect it. Moreland hit for a better average (.004 better), but his on base percentage dropped by nearly .045 points. Obviously given the extra time his HR, Runs scored, and runs batted in were on the up, but by only 7, 40, and 26 from the previous season respectively. Numbers you wouldn’t guess to come from a guy who had 320 more at bats than he did the previous year. Staying away from the right guys can keep you out of the cellar as much as getting the right guys can get you to the top. Baseball is known to be a marathon so take your time and make the right moves and you’ll be great. Try to sprint your way through and you’ll make mistakes and that will never be good in the long run. Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro. As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day. Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march. (October 6, 2011 - Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America)  Miguel Cabrera (credits below) The beginning of the 2012 off-season rankings report for First baseman With the NFL post-season kicking off this past weekend, and just six measly weeks left until pitchers and catchers report, it is only logical that we start getting into some good ole fantasy baseball talk for 2012. For those of you starting out for the first time, fantasy baseball is a much bigger monster than that of football. For starters, the regular season is considerably longer, opening day for most teams will begin the first week of April, and the end of the season can go until the middle of October, a total of 7 months, longest of any of the major sports in existence. What makes it tougher is that, not only is it 7 months long, but it is also a daily game, at least basketball gives you a couple of days between games to recuperate. So where do we begin? Well you have to get your league set up. There are multiple ways to play this game, from how many categories do you want contributed to your score, to whether you want it to be head to head like football or rotisserie where you get points for how you rank among the league for each given statistic. Next you have to figure out if you want the advantage of daily line up changes, or if you want to lock the line ups Monday morning and make it a weekly league like football. While the latter might be more fun it is certainly a disadvantage for when you lose a player on Monday and can’t replacement him for another 7 days as opposed to football where you only lose that players production for one game and can switch them out the next. And finally, you have to figure out how long you want your season to go, and whether or not you want full MLB rosters or one specific league. It may seem like a lot to think about, but in the end these are essential aspects of your game that you’ll need to figure out. Once you have all that down it’s now time to begin ranking your players. But for those of you who don’t want to take the time to do that, you have found the right place. From this point forward you can find my bi-weekly columns of the top 5 players to draft at each given position, and the top 5 players that may be on the decline in 2012. Because, I was a first basemen for 18 years of my life that’s where we will begin, and with the amount of new faces at the position and some old faces in new places at the position this shall be a great place to start. Top 5 First baseman to draft in 2012: Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) has been one of the most consistent 1B in baseball since he broke into the game back in 2003. Miguel has taken residency in two of the biggest parks in baseball during his tenure in the league, so his numbers are slightly mind-boggling. However, his production has been nothing but stellar including his last four seasons in Detroit where he has been able to blast an average of 40 HR and 115 RBI per year. What makes him even better, is his ability to get on base. Just last season Cabrera was second in all of baseball in walks with 108 good for an On Base Percentage (OBP) of .448 nearly 30 points higher than the second highest OBP for first baseman. Because most leagues include Hits (H), Runs (R), Runs Batted In (RBI), Home Run (HR), Stolen Base (SB), and OBP as the six offensive categories Cabrera reaches the top of all first baseman. He isn’t going to steal, but when you have a guy who is top 5 at his position in the other 5 categories it’s very difficult to pass on him come draft day. Adrian Gonzalez (1B, BOS) was an absolute MONSTER in 2011. His numbers were slightly inflated due to him playing in a much smaller park from 2010 to 2011 (making the switch from San Diego to Boston), so it may be a little difficult to predict similar numbers out of this lefty first baseman. The fact of the matter is, he plays in Fenway, as a lefty with that short porch in right field he should do just fine. In 2011, Gonzalez recorded the most hits of any first baseman in baseball, was 2nd in Runs batted in (RBI) and Runs Scored, and top 5 in OBP. Like most 1B, Gonzalez isn’t going to blaze the base paths, but he will certainly garner you excellent production for the other five categories. Joey Votto (1B, CIN) had what most people would say to be a “down” year in 2011. He stroked just under 30 HR, but drove in 103 runs, scored another 106 on his own and walked nearly 20 times more than he did in 2010. However, his average, homers (by 8), RBI (by 10), and Runs Scored (by 5) were all down in 2011 causing him to have a “down” year. While the numbers suggest him to have slumped his overall production was good to be a top 5 first baseman last season. Votto plays in one of the most hitter friendly parks and that isn’t changing any time soon. The Reds young players around him are only getting better with Jay Bruce, and others, which will eventually allow Votto to see better pitches as teams will be forced to get him out more frequently, this is when Votto will be able to use his amazing eye to select the right pitches for him to take advantage of. Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) used to be known for his amazing ability to put the ball into the stands. From 2004 – 2006 Konerko averaged 38 home runs per season, however besides a .313 average in 2006 just couldn’t get his average to be consistent. The following three seasons weren’t so kind to Konerko, never scored more than 75 runs, never more than 31 HR, couldn’t drive in more than 90 runs, and never hit higher than .277 average. So why would he be one of the top 5 players to draft? Well, since then, Konerko is back to his HR mashing ways averaging 35 HR per season, driving in more than 100 runs per year, but where the real jump goes to is his average has jumped back up and over the .300 mark to a two year average of .306 per year. Konerko isn’t really walking enough for a first baseman but his OBP of .388 and .393 over the last two years is nice. If the rest of the White Sox line up can drive him in he could be even more valuable at the first base position. Just because of his name I think you have to talk about Albert Pujols (1B, ANA). However, I am a bit hesitant to draft Pujols in 2012. Pujols has never been hampered by his ball park as he has done what he has in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball, so knowing that Anaheim’s isn’t that much better isn’t a true worry for me. What has me hesitant is his jump from the National League to the American League. He plays in a league that holds the best starting pitchers in the baseball like Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA), Justin Verlander (SP, DET), CC Sabathia (SP, NYY), Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and others around the league. The argument could be made that he also faced big time starting pitchers in the National League, with Roy Halladay (SP, PHI), Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) and others, but overall the amount of talent can’t be compared to that of the American League. He doesn’t know these pitchers, for the most part he has never faced them, or if he has it’s only been for a few at bats, and the pitchers in the American League will use this to their advantage. Notable 1B To Draft in 2012 Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) and Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) were the heart of the rookie 1B class of 2011. Averaging 20 homers between the two of them, they were both able to drive in nearly 80 runs, steal multiple bases and batted over .280 higher than star 1B like Ryan Howard (1B, PHI), Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) and Adam Lind (1B, TOR). Prince Fielder (1B, FA) still doesn’t have a team, news around the league state that the Nationals are going hard for him, which may hurt Mike Morse (1B, WSH) value. But will also help Fielders. For now, we have to wait to see what team he lands on, but keep an eye on this situation because it could determine whether he is a draftable 1B or not. The first base position is known for its power output. 12 first basemen in 2011 hit more than 25 homers and 13 first basemen drove in more than 80 runs. If you are one of the lucky ones to go out and grab the guy who not only hits for power but also hits for average then you’re in a perfect position. Because other positions like Catcher, Short Stop, and some Out Fielders don’t put up the power numbers that a first basemen can it is nearly imperative to get one of these top sluggers on draft day. Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro. As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day. Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march. (October 2, 2011 - Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)  Albert Pujols (Credits below) Albert Pujols leaves St. Louis for LA; CJ Wilson leaves Texas for LA Despite a somewhat shocking change of scenery for Pujols, the new digs don’t figure to change Albert’s production all that much. Albert will still be Albert. The real fantasy impact will be felt by the guys that hit in front of him. The problem is that it’s tough to figure out who those guys will be. Bobby Abreu and his OBP skills could make him interesting if he’s hitting in the two hole, but who knows if it will be Abreu, Aybar, Kendrick, Trout, or Bourjos in those two slots ahead of the power hitters. Same league, same division, better ballpark. Like Pujols, the production from Wilson is unlikely to change much in his new location. The ballpark could help some, but CJ has always been pretty good about keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. It’s not as if the new ballpark is going to cover up a weakness of his. And the ballpark help may just simply come in the form of offsetting some regression as CJ’s ERA has been quite a bit lower than his xFIP in two years as a starter. All in all, it’s probably status quo for CJ this year. Marlins sign Jose Reyes Had the Marlins signed Pujols as well, you could have forecasted a pretty decent uptick in runs for Reyes. Albert went to the Angels though, and the analysis on Reyes is pretty much as it would have been had he stayed in New York. He’ll still be in a lineup with one stud hitting behind him (now the 22 year old masher, Mike Stanton), and his production is all tied to his ability to stay on the field. He hasn’t played more than 133 games since 2008, so it’s up to you whether you want to take on the risk or not. Phillies sign Jonathan Papelbon, Marlins sign Heath Bell Yawn. It’s dumb to spend early picks on closers. As far as I concerned, it would not have mattered where these two signed. They’ll be going too early to ever deserve warranting your attention on draft day. Rangers sign Joe Nathan, Frankie Francisco and Jon Rauch to the Mets, Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos Now these are the types of closer transactions fantasy owners should give a damn about. Because it’s not too difficult to find a closer who can get you 30+ saves late in drafts (*), these are the names you should be scrutinizing in your effort to find cheap saves. (*) Eight guys drafted in 18th round or later recorded 30+ saves last season. Despite recording just 14 saves last year, Nathan may go a little higher in drafts than this 18th round or later target range of mine simply because he still has some name value. Santos is likely to be out of that range as well because he was one of the value closers who got 30 saves last season. Amusingly, Francisco and Rauch, who competed for saves in Toronto’s bullpen last season, both signed with the Mets. Early indications are that Francisco will get the first shot at closing. And he should get the first shot because he’s simply a better pitcher than Rauch. Compare their number from last year:  The presence of Rauch isn’t ideal, but if Francisco pitches like he’s capable of pitching, he should hold on to that role and provide some really cheap saves from the 20th round or so. Just as important as the teams these closers have signed with are the teams they have left behind. Santos has filled the Francisco/Rauch hole in Toronto, and the Twins re-signed the abysmal Matt Capps (who I wouldn’t draft with my worst enemy’s team). That leaves the White Sox and their closer role. With Chris Sale slotted to try out the rotation, Matt Thornton has to be the man, doesn’t he? For one thing, they’ll be paying him 5.5MM. For another, he’s a good pitcher. He lost the role after a rough start last year, but from May 1 on he was pretty damn good. Check out his numbers from that point on:  Uh, nothing wrong with that, right? Assuming Thornton is the guy (and Ozzie Guillen leaving shouldn’t hurt his cause), he’ll likely be way undervalued. He could potentially be one of the bigger steals at the closer position in 2012 drafts. Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez to Kansas City for Melky Cabrera From a pure baseball perspective, this trade made a lot of sense for both teams. But from a fantasy perspective, neither player is likely to benefit from this deal. Sanchez moves to the tougher league and, as a pitcher whose value is based on strikeouts, will take a decent hit in his K totals by not being in the NL anymore (**). (**) For a high volume strikeout guy, the difference between AL and NL is worth between 15-20 K’s simply because of whether or not you’re facing pitchers. As for Melky, he was likely to come down off his 2011 high as it were (***), and the move to San Francisco’s ballpark isn’t going to help mitigate the regression. Because of his stellar 2011, Melky will most certainly be overvalued and is a stay away for smart fantasy owners. (***) .305/.339/.470 with 18 HR, 20 SB, 102 R and 87 RBI...from Melky Cabrera. GEEZUS! Dodgers sign Chris Capuano Believe it or not, this may be my favorite signing so far this offseason. Capuano was sneakily good last year. His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP might not look too appealing, but they’re not at all indicative of how he really pitched. Of the things Capuano can control, he was actually quite good. His 8.13 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, and 3.17 K:BB are all excellent numbers that helped him post a SIERA and xFIP in the 3.60 range. He had bad luck with balls in play as his .312 BABIP was the 18th highest among starting pitchers. If his luck turns around and his recent K numbers are for real, Capuano could easily post a sub-4.00 ERA. If that happens, he has the potential to provide immense value to fantasy owners. LA also signed Aaron Harang, but he was much better at home (3.05 ERA) than he was on the road (4.70 ERA) last year, so I’m not touching him outside of Petco. Diamondbacks resign Aaron Hill Aaron Hill is a good baseball player. That belief has bit me in the ass (twice), but I stand by that belief. Upon receiving his first full complement of at-bats in the bigs in 2006 and 2007, he posted consecutive .291 batting averages at ages 24 and 25 while developing some power (17 HR) in his age 25 season. After missing all but 55 games due to injury in 2008, Hill broke out in a big way in 2009 with a .286 average, 36 HR, and 100+ RBI. Then disaster struck. In 2010, the BABIP gods forsook him and he ended up with an impossibly low BABIP of .196 that year. He failed to turn things around in 2011, so Toronto shipped him to Arizona in late August. And then things started to get a little better. In 33 games with the D’Backs he posted a well-above-respectable slash line of .315/.386/.492. You could credit the turn around to a change of scenery, a nice hitter’s park, or the move to the NL, but I choose to credit the turn around to the fact that it was inevitable. And unless Hill slept with a daughter of one of the BABIP gods, I’m going to assume the last 33 games of 2011 weren’t some sick, cruel oasis but rather a sign of better days to come. So I’m hopping right back on the Aaron Hill train because Aaron Hill is a good baseball player. Angels deal Jeff Mathis As a Rangers fan, I’d like to take this opportunity to say SUCK IT, MIKE SCIOSCIA!!! Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who was just informed that it’s 2011, no one hops* on trains anymore. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (December 9, 2011 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)  Evan Longoria (credits below) Newton’s law of motion states that a body remains in motion unless acted upon by an external force. In the case of Evan Longoria, not even the external force of a first round playoff exit can derail his torrid finish; a pace he will look to carry into 2012. Longoria (.289 AVG, 7 HR, 22 RBI in 90 September at bats), however isn’t alone among the handful of players who flourished down the final stretch. Whether it’s a crafty lefty dominating down the stretch or a scrappy middle infielder piecing together a late season hitting streak, the successes of baseball’s final weeks should be noted as we close 2011 and look forward to 2012. Here’s a list of whose red-hot finishes may be enough to carry into next spring. Nolan Reimold: Baltimore -OF The third year outfielder used September to springboard himself into a potential starting role with the Orioles come April by launching five home runs and 17 RBI during the season’s final month. The emerging Reimold demonstrated more than just a lofty power stroke and added a patient eye at the plate with a .395 OPB during the final 22 games of 2010. A full season might just allow the powerful 28-year-old to eclipse the 30 home run plateau while amassing a healthy hit total in 2011. Mike Moustakas: Kansas City -3B Moustakas’ arrival didn’t sneak up on anyone as the former 2nd overall pick from 2007 was highly anticipated at the commencement of spring training and by mid-June the youngster was an everyday name in the Kansas City lineup card. Growing pains were expected, (a .160 July average) but by August the youngster showed off his ability with a .283 average and then turned it up another notch in September with a .352 rate. The third base job is his going forward and Kansas City has made it clear that the recipe of Eric Hosmer at first and Moustakas at third will be the corner combination of the future. Allen Craig: St. Louis -Utility Craig’s work in the postseason will all but guarantee him playing time in 2012 for Tony LaRussa and company. The Cardinals’ utility man caught fire when called up in May and parlayed his playing time into a .350 average (.420 OBP) combined with a pair of home runs and a handful of clutch RBIs. Summer slowed Craig’s bat but a strong September (.327, 5, 12 RBI) gave the Cardinals the added push they needed to make a run for the NL wildcard. Regardless of how Craig finishes the final stretch of the 2011 postseason, this up and comer will be a sure thing to see an added role next spring. Robert Andino: Baltimore -SS/2B At 27, Andino has outgrown his status as a prospect and finally broken through the precipice of the starting lineup. A former 2nd round pick of the Marlins in 2002, Andino has long been targeted as a combination of power and speed who can supplement his offense with sure-handed glove work. Given playing time, the middle infielder showed what he can do with a full month of work to the tune of an impressive September (.275, 3, 15, 4 SB). In his final full season as a minor leaguer in 2007, Andino showed what he can do given 600+ at bats: .278 AVG, 13 HRS, 50 RBI, and 21 SBs. Brian Roberts injury history will be a question mark once again for the Orioles but Andino’s accession may make Roberts expendable. Salvador Perez: Kansas City – Catcher The young Kansas City backstop will be the catcher-of-the-future for the Royals considering Perez is only 21 and has already made it clear that he’s one of the top offensive catchers in the American league. Perez has proven he can hit at the minor league level (2010: .290, 7 HR, 53 RBI; 2011: .290, 10 HR, 53 RBI). Pitchers love throwing to him and hitters love hitting in front of him, a combination that makes the future bright for the 6’3’’ prospect. We may not see a full season of Perez in 2012 as the Royals may elect that another season at AAA may be beneficial, but certainly Perez will make his mark as an everyday player sooner than later in Kansas City. J.A. Happ: Houston- SP The Astros will attempt to turn things around behind the talented left arm of Happ who has shown in the past that he can be at times effective and even dominant. The months of April, June, and July were forgettable to say the least as Happ surrendered an ERA of over 7.00+ during his 15 starts through those months. Fortunately September was a welcome sight to Astros fans as they witnessed a more apropos performance by their pitching anchor (3.38 ERA in 24 September innings with 26 K’s). Houston will spend at least one more season in the National League and their success in the NL central will hinge on the hopes of their capricious star lefty. Jason Vargas: Seattle – SP Behind every dismal season there are bright spots. Behind the Mariners 67-95 disappointment of 2011 was the steady rise of Jason Vargas. Vargas, who will be 29 by the beginning of spring training, appears ready to fill in as the number two behind Felix Hernandez. The former Long Beach star owes some of his effectiveness to his ability to contrast Hernandez, a hard throwing power arm while Vargas, a precision crafty lefthander navigates American league lineups like a seasoned veteran. Look for Vargas to take the next step and push the Mariners up the standings in 2012 following an impressive September stretch (2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9). With a full 200+ innings under his belt and a respectable WHIP of 1.31, Vargas will springboard off of a solid 2011 as an upper echelon lefty in the American league. Wade LeBlanc: San Diego – SP LeBlanc looked to be a long shot to compete for a starting role in 2012 but a dominant stretch run as the season closed helped to give LeBlanc a fighting chance. The lefty’s 1.04 WHIP over his final 30 innings is argument enough for a long look in March but .234 OPP AVG was the lowest of his career over a one-month span. Baseball has undergone a pitching renaissance over recent years but there will always be a shortage of effective left handed arms which makes LeBlanc a strong candidate to gain another shot at pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park in 2012. Written by Conor Gereg exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 27, 2011 - Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, 2012 Fantasy Baseball, Conor Gereg You gotta spend money to make money. That’s the saying, right? Well this graph shows that, in baseball, spending money only leads to success if you have the ability to spend even more money when you’ve previously spent in the wrong places. The top two teams in payroll made the playoffs, but the rest of the top ten highest spending teams missed the postseason. The key seems to be to spending money in player development while leaving your team the flexibility to address your needs midseason. Four of this year’s playoff teams fit that description. Texas, Detroit, St. Louis, and Milwaukee all sit in the 10-20 range of payroll, and all made moves either in the offseason or around the trading deadline to address weaknesses. The acquisitions of Mike Adams, Doug Fister, Edwin Jackson and Zack Greinke were great additions that filled in holes around teams built primarily with homegrown talent. Tampa Bay got there purely on their unmatched ability to acquire talent via the draft, and Arizona got there by making two very smart deals that landed them young, team controlled aces in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. So yeah, you can spend money to be successful, but you better have a whole lot to spend or know exactly where and how to spend it.  Click graphic to enlarge. Infographic provided by David Fung. For more great infographs, follow him on Twitter @cobradave, and be sure to head over to his blog: http://FUNGraphs.tumblr.com Commentary provided by Brett Talley (@TheRealTal) of TheFantasyFix.com.  Clayton Kershaw (credits below) We'll keep it simple today as the season is winding down: If the Red Sox ultimately miss the playoffs, the question will be asked, who had a swifter, larger fall from grace, the Red Sox or Charlie Sheen? The Red Sox wake up Sunday with 1.5 game lead and a doubleheader with the Yankees, if the Rays win on Sunday it will be all tied up. Top pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Derek Holland, Ivan Nova. The hottest of that group is Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 0.99 ERA, over the last 3 weeks) as he makes his push for his well deserved NL CY Young. Interestingly, one of the coldest pitchers in the league, John Lackey (0-2, 10.76 ERA, over the last 3 weeks) will be pitching in a must win game against the Yankees. Midway through the season, people always like to bash the existence of the wild card, without the wild card there would be no excitement heading into the last week of the season. The Braves and Cardinals are engaged in their own wild card drama. The Braves have not played well, but they are playing far better than the Red Sox. Unfortunately for the Braves, the Cardinals are just playing that well as they have won 13 of their last 17. The only other drama, is whether or not Matt Kemp will win the triple crown and if he does, will he win the MVP? He is certainly making a strong push for both with a .560, 4, 8 batting line over the last week. On this day in 1961, the real single season home run king, Roger Maris, tied Babe Ruth's single season home run record. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 8, 2011 - Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Daily News, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Advice, The Daily Fix, Injury Updates  Yovani Gallardo I am not going to lie, I am completely bored by the end of the baseball season, sure I am waiting for a collapse, but in my crystal ball I see all the same players. The Phillies and their dream team collected from the Blues Jays, Astros and Rangers, finally clinched their long expected playoff spot. Ultimately, tonight will be nothing without a world series title. The Brewers finally decided they wanted to start winning again, Yovani Gallardo was the one to lead the charge with thirteen strikeouts. By the way, if you are not a natural fan of one of the team heading to the playoffs how are you not rooting for the Brewers? Small market, beer drinking, baseball town that went all in this year. Please ignore The Prince and K-Rod and enjoy the ride with the Hebrew Hammer. It is always fun to follow the completely irrational style of most baseball writers. Two nights ago the Red Sox were dead if they were swept by the Rays, after a single win Armageddon was called off. Interestingly, after another win the Rays are only three games out if they can close with one more win that leaves them two wins out. If you are the Yankees, do you throw a couple of games just to stick it to the Red Sox? Yes, I am trying to imagine scenarios because there is nothing else going on. By the way, better development this weekend Scarlett Johanson's side boob or the Red Sox, freak out? If tyou have not seen ScarJo in all her glory, honestly, sadly, you are not missing much. I'm just saying, if you are a celebrity why would you ever have nude pictures on your phone? Why not wait for air brushing? Scarlett, your butt is nice, but I can go out on any Saturday night in the gaslamp and see equal value. The Orioles have serve as a fantastic spoiler over the last few weeks. After severely damaging the chances of the Rays, the mighty Orioles have taken vengeance on Red Sox. To this point they have taken two of three. After the Red Sox managed a win everyone took a deep breathe and said it was over, But another loss and where are we? After a lot of preseason buzz the Royals once again fell short, but watch them next year. After of decade of top picks, they have a group of young prospects that could shock the world. A glorious pitches Sunday awaits: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain and David Price await. David Price is in a must win situation. At a dinner party this weekend, the following question/statement was posed, "Verlander is closing in on 25 wins, which is a lot, what is the all-time record?" If you know the answer, never read this again, because it is wasting your time. Answer to come. Interestingly the answer to this will be a variation on the name of me first son. I would saw first child, but that would be too cruel Finally, as apathetic as I have been toward the regular season, I think the post season will be fantastic because I see not dominant team; everyone has a fatal flaw. The Phillies lack in offense, the Brewers peaked early, the D-backs are too you and the Braves are suspect all the way around. In the American league, the Yankees have nobody beyond CC, same for the Tigers and Verlander, the Red Sox might not make the playoffs, the D-Rays were sleep waling most of the year and might back their way in, finally the Rangers are struggling to win the American league west. That is like want to be porn star struggling to lose her virginity at comic con. With the final weeks upon us, be careful in county in those individuals that got you to this point, this is not the NFL, things are decided and you need to plan accordingly. If things were close this would be different. But they are not, so, adjust your lineups accordingly. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!  Adrian Gonzalez (credits below) It continues to crash down around the Red Sox, oh the humanity, they lose again, Gonzo is day-to-day, you would think it is 2003 all over again. Nothing makes me smile more than Red Sox fans swirling around in the toilet bowl of their own neurosis. FYI, they still lead the wild card by four with fourteen games left to play. That being said, they have Tampa coming into town for four HUGE games. At least they have Jacoby Ellsbury (.500, 3, 9, 1.498 OPS), who could win the MVP even if the '11 Red Sox turn out to be the '04 Yankees. Now for a team that DOES deserve some sympathy...the Pittsburgh Pirates. They continue their record streak with their 19th straight losing season, a record, for American sports teams. Especially sad because they held a share of first place as late as July 25th...they were the feel good story of the first half. Unfortunately, the story ends exactly the same way it has ended the previous 18. The hottest pitchers over the last three weeks going tomorrow: Cliff Lee (2-0, .36 ERA); Randy Wells (3-0; 1.26 ERA); and, Dana Eveland (2-0, 0.60 ERA). Francisco Rodriguez is unhappy with his role as a setup man despite the fact both he, and the closer John Axford are thriving. Rodriguez has gone 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 25 appearances with Milwaukee, while Axford has a 0.99 ERA with 19 saves since Rodriguez joined the team. Francisco is getting paid $11.5 million to be on a team with a legit shot at the World Series, he is a free agent next year, he should keep his mouth shut, enjoy the ride, and sign to be a closer next year. Instead, the selfish prima donna's words threaten to tear apart a team on the cusp of the playoffs, well played. You know you are not a very good team when your season high win streak is four games, and you hit it with two weeks left in the season. YOUR 2011 ROYALS! Written by Chris Summers exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (August 25, 2011 - Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Daily News, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Advice, The Daily Fix, Injury Updates  Drew Pomeranz (credits below) SP- DREW POMERANZ (COLORADO) - Drew, the key piece in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade made his first major league start for the Rockies holding the Red's scoreless for five innings. Pomeranz had a 4-3 record and a remarkable 1.78 ERA in 20 starts in the minors. He should get 2-3 more starts and could be useful down the stretch for your fantasy team. SP/RP- MATT MOORE (TAMPA BAY) - Matt was recalled from Durham Sunday night by the Rays who are making a late push for the wildcard spot in the A.L. East. In 27 minor league starts he held a 12-3 with a 1.92 ERA. As for now he is expected to pitch in middle relief but may be called on to start due to a late scratch of a Ray's starter. Moore should be grabbed in all dynasty type formats and can be useful on a roto team as a middle reliever. C- WILIN ROSARIO (COLORADO) - Wilin will receive the majority of the late season starts at catcher according to manager Jim Tracy. Rosario, considered a top prospect hit 21 home runs at AA Tulsa this year. Any Rockies player is always worth a look although they only have six of their remianing 16 games at home. If you need help at catcher why not take a chance? C- SALVADOR PEREZ (KANSAS CITY) - The 21 year old Perez who is expected to be the starter next year for the Royals is hitting .295 in just under 100 AB's for the Royal's. Perez looks to be getting most of the playing time in September for the Royals and can be useful to help your team in the batting average category down the stretch. 2B- JEMILE WEEKS (OAKLAND) - Weeks is absolutely lighting it up for the A's since his call up in June. In 350 AB's this season Week's is hitting .302 with 21 stolen bases and 44 runs scored. Weeks continues to shine although fellow rookie second sacker's Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley still garner the headlines. Worth a look down the stretch if needed. 3B- BRENT MOREL (CHICAGO WHITE SOX) - Morel had the first multi home run game last week against the Indians. He is (7 for 14) is his last six games and has started to look much more comfortable at the plate. Brent has had a rather pedestrian season hitting only .255 with seven home runs in 355 AB's. He is still an A.L. only option at this time. Written by John Marino exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 10, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, The Rookie Report, John Marino | CategoriesAll NJ SEO Company
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