2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Brett Talley is joined by the owner of FB365.com, Charlie Saponara, to break down the info coming out of mock drafts to help you start prepping for you 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.  

Brett and Charlie discuss what positions are deep and what positions are shallow, when you should target your first starter and first reliever, and who might be a candidate to bounce back. Lots of names are brought up and a lot of good info is disseminated.

Listen below by pressing play, or search "The Fantasy Fix" on iTunes and download the podcast to listen on your iPhone or iPod.

Be sure to follow Brett on Twitter @theRealTal, and also TheFantasyFix.com on Twitter @TheFantasyFix for all your fantasy football needs.
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Corey Luebke (credits below)
Petco Park is a magical place for pitchers.  In maybe its greatest illusion it made a 39 year old Woody Williams look like a competent pitcher in 2006.  Williams’ career xFIP was 4.64 and he hadn’t posted an xFIP under 4.00 since 2002.  And despite his 5.09 xFIP and 4.46 K/9, Petco helped make Williams a 3.65 ERA pitcher in 2006.  The worst part about it for me is that my favorite team (Astros) was fooled by this illusion.  They signed Williams for the following season where he had a 5.27 ERA over an inexplicable 188 innings.

More recently Petco threw Aaron Harang in a time machine back to a period of his career where he didn’t suck.  2007 was the best year of his career as he had 16 wins, a 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.47 K/9.  But from 2008-2010 he never had a WHIP below 1.38, and his ERA was an ugly 4.72.  Some of his poor performance during that span was a result of bad luck, but Petco cured those ills.  His 3.64 ERA with the Padres last year was well below his xFIP even though his K/9 and BB/9 were almost identical to his 2010 numbers.

The Dodgers were duped by Harang’s Petco performance, and Mat Latos was traded to Cincinnati, but there will still be fantasy relevant pitchers in San Diego as long as Petco is the ballpark they play in.

Corey Luebke is actually a good pitcher in any ballpark.  In almost 140 innings last year he had a 3.02 xFIP, 1.07 BABIP (aided by low BABIP), and a 9.92 K/9.  And he was better away from Petco.  His ERA was about a run and a half lower on the road and his xFIP was about 70 points lower.  Given his minor league numbers, the exceptional strikeout rate probably isn’t sustainable.  But a respectable, safely above average K/9 isn’t an unreasonable expectation.  He’s currently being drafted 40th among SP on MockDraftCentral.com and is 39th on my SP list.

Tim Stauffer would also be a decent pitcher without the Petco safety net.  With the safety net, he’s a safe bet for an ERA in the mid three’s with a WHIP that won’t kill you (think 1.25-ish) and an average K/9.  Once again MDC.com’s ADP of him is just about right as he is #66 on that list as well as mine.

But after those two Petco is going to have to chip in.

Edinson Volquez was decent once upon a time.  If his strand rate wasn’t below average, you could get an ERA in the mid three’s out of him.  If his BABIP wasn’t too high, his WHIP would only be bothersome as opposed to unmanageable thanks to his high walk rate.  But his BB/9 has been over 5.00 in each of the last three seasons.  Three seasons, by the way, in which Volquez has missed a lot of time due to injury. 

So Volquez has to help himself before Petco can help him.  The mock drafters over at MDC.com seem to believe Volquez is capable of staying on the mound and getting the ball over the plate as he is being drafted 68th among SP.  But 68th is borderline fantasy starter territory in ten-team leagues, and there is way too much risk attached to Volquez for me to consider using him as even a spot starter.  My rank of 109th among SP for Volquez means he’s an upside pick later in an NL-only draft and nothing more.

Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley round out San Diego’s rotation, and they’re likely beyond Petco’s saving.  Richard is a 28 year old with 500 innings of 4.23 xFIP and a K/9 that fell from respectable to an unacceptable 4.79 last year.  No thanks.  Moseley was no doubt aided by Petco last year as his ERA was a full run below his xFIP/SIERA.  But a large portion of the luck that aided that disparity occurred on the road.  There’s no strikeout upside to be found and so there is little reason to draft Moseley.

The Pads have some nice arms in the minors that they acquired via trade from Boston and Texas in Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin, and Joe Wieland.  Erlin and Wieland may see call-ups this year, but neither is so dynamic that they should be stashed in anything other than dynasty leagues or NL-only leagues with deep benches.  Kelly has some legitimate upside, but may be slated for a 2013 major league debut.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who has refreshed the ESPN fantasy baseball page so many times that he might be investigated for cyber stalking.  You can tell him he’s a creeper and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(September 24, 2011 - Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images North America) 

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Clayton Kershaw (credits below)
There is no question that Clayton Kershaw is very good.  The only question is where among the top ten starting pitchers he should be drafted.  The answer to that question comes in the form of another question:  Do you buy the drop from 4.79 walks per nine in 2009 to 3.57 per nine in 2010 all the way down to 2.08 per nine last year?

After Kershaw, the Dodgers have several guys who are options to be drafted in ten-team mixed leagues but none who will be drafted in almost all leagues (assuming 60 starters are drafted in those leagues).

The most draft-worthy of the LA pitchers not named Kershaw is Ted Lilly.  Once you get past the top 25 or so starters, the WHIPs start to get ugly.  Once you get past that 60th pitcher threshold, it’s hard to find a pitcher who isn’t a complete WHIP killer.  Only 13 pitchers with at least 120 innings who finished outside the top 60 in xFIP last year had a WHIP of 1.25 or less.  One of whom was Lilly (1.16).

He’s currently going 84th among starters on MockDraftCentral.com which is just insane.  It’s almost impossible to find a sub-1.20 WHIP past the midway point in a draft.  Lilly will get you that along with an ERA with only marginal risk of being above 4.00 and a K/9 likely above 7.00.  Lilly should be going closer to 48th than 84th.

On the complete opposite end of the WHIP spectrum is Chad Billingsley.  He posted an ugly 1.45 WHIP last year thanks to a BB/9 just over 4.00.  But there’s upside with Billingsley.  He’s young (26) and posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.03 K/9 in 2010.  He’s currently going 88th among pitchers on MDC, so he’d be a fine sleeper/spot starter selection in the last three rounds of your draft.

And then come a couple of deeper sleeper options currently going outside the top 100 starters on MDC.  Aaron Harang is the option with more name value and a higher level of prior success.  And he benefitted from a year in pitcher-friendly PETCO last year (3.64 ERA).  But his velocity has declined the last couple of years, and he isn’t pitching in PETCO this year.  So Harang is a sleeper option but probably not a sleeper.

On the other hand, Chris Capuano has some legitimate potential to be a surprising spot-start option.  His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from last year aren’t appealing, but his peripheral numbers were excellent.  He posted a 3.60 SIERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 3.00.  Only 29 other pitchers who threw at least 120 innings managed a SIERA of 3.60 or less combined with a strikeout-to-walk over 3.00 last year.  Not that Capuano is going to be a top 30 pitcher this year, but he is certainly worth a late round pick.

The Dodgers don’t exactly have any prospects knocking on the door of the rotation.  With Rubby de la Rosa undergoing Tommy John surgery last August, Nate Eovaldi is probably first in line to get a crack at the rotation if one of the current five hits the DL.  But Eovaldi hasn’t pitched an inning at AAA, and I’m always wary of young pitchers who haven’t spent any time at that level.  Their #6 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus is Chris Withrow.  Withrow is from my hometown of Odessa, Texas, so I’d love to see him make it to the big leagues.  But he too hasn’t seen AAA yet, and he has to work out some serious control issues before he’s ready for the show.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who can tell you firsthand that Chris Withrow’s wife is sneaky hot and was Withrow’s high school sweetheart.  You can tell him he’s sneaky ugly and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(September 3, 2011 - Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images North America) 
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Jorge de la Rosa (credits below)
This is part 2 of our 30 part series previewing every starting rotation in the league.  

Now up: the Colorado Rockies. 

Jorge de la Rosa has pitched more than 130 innings in a major league season exactly once (185 IP in 2009).  The only season in which he recorded an ERA under 4.00 was his 3.51 mark in just 59 innings before injury last year.  The small sample size season that was 2011 for de la Rosa was also the only time he has ever finished a season with a WHIP lower than 1.30 (1.19).

Coming off a mediocre 2010 performance in which he only tossed 120 or so innings, de la Rosa was going at the tail end of drafts heading into last year (ADP: 225).  And so, coming off a second consecutive injury shortened season, it’s likely the lack-of-control-lefty will go undrafted in many leagues.

But because Day-lah has a K/9 of 8.82 in almost 500 innings as a Rockie, he is absolutely worthy of a draft pick, even in ten-team standard leagues.  As a late or even last round flier, you get a lot of upside with Jorge.  If (big IF) he can stay healthy, you could be getting 180+ strikeouts from one of your last picks. 

And while the K’s won’t come along with an ERA in the low threes, it will likely come with an ERA no higher than four because his SIERA’s the last four seasons have all fallen between 3.80 and 4.00.  The big worry is that he’ll kill your WHIP, and his career 4.46 BB/9 justifies that concern.  But he did manage a 3.36 BB/9 last season.  If he can keep it at or around 3.50, he won’t go all Chad Billingsley on your WHIP.

Speaking of lots of walks, let’s talk about Jhoulys Chacin.  While it’s true that it’s easier to avoid walking people in the minors than in the big leagues, Chacin didn’t issue many free passes in the minors (2.48 BB/9 in 373 IP) and has completely lost that ability in the majors (4.18 BB/9 in 342 IP). 

The lack of control becomes even more disconcerting when you consider the fact that Chacin was lucky with balls in play last year (.261 BABIP) and still couldn’t post a sub-1.30 WHIP.  If that luck doesn’t hold, Chacin may be the WHIP killer you feared de la Rosa would be. 

As always, a player’s value all depends on where they’re being drafted.  Chacin has been going 194th on MockDraftCentral.com which isn’t wildly unreasonable, but there are better options going behind him (for example, Ricky Nolasco who was wildly unlucky last year).

The rest of the Colorado rotation will be filled out by some combination of the worthless trio of Jason Hammel, Josh Outman, and Guillermo Moscoso or the prospect duo of Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.

White and Pomeranz are both quality prospects, but they are not viable fantasy options right out of the gate.  The biggest red flag is that Pomeranz hasn’t thrown a pitch in AAA, and White has only racked up 23 innings at that level.  They don’t need extensive time at AAA, but making the jump to the majors straight from AA can be tough.  Just ask Kyle Drabek.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad to be back, baby!  You can ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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Daniel Hudson (credits below)
This is part 1 of our 30 part series previewing every starting rotation in the league.  First up: the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona made one of the more interesting moves this offseason when they dealt top prospect Jarrod Parker to Oakland for Trevor Cahill.  Along with Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson, Cahill will be a part of an exciting young trio of starters that I think gives Arizona the best chance to win the NL West.

But from a fantasy perspective, I’m leery of all three.

Kennedy’s sub-3.00 ERA (2.88) put him in a group with just 15 other players who were able to get under that arbitrary 3.00 mark.  He also won 21 games, struck out over eight batters per nine innings, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 3.50.  That’s just an insane season, and ESPN’s player rater said Kennedy was the 7th best starter in 2011.

Coming off that kind of season, Kennedy is sure to be drafted fairly high.  It’s hard to say what the market will be for him exactly without the help of average draft position from mock drafts, but if I had to guess, I imagine he’ll be around the 15th pitcher taken and no lower than the 20th pitcher taken.  Based on his roto numbers from last year you’d think that was appropriate if not a bit of a steal, but when you look at the other numbers, you see that Kennedy shouldn’t be drafted as a top 20 starter.

First of all, the best ERA predictors (xFIP and SIERA) say Kennedy’s ERA should have been at least half a run higher last year (around 3.50).  A lot of the gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA is a result of his luck on balls in play (.270 BABIP) and his luck stranding runners (79.2% LOB%).  To be fair, both of those numbers were aided by a defense that ranked tenth in defensive efficiency last year.  However, those numbers were far enough from the mean (especially the LOB%) that some regression should be expected despite the fact that Arizona will field basically the same defense.

Because Kennedy is such a young pitcher, it’s absolutely possible that he continues to improve and that his advanced skills could mitigate some of the regression.  His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates all improved last year.  If that trend continues, the regression won’t hit as hard.  However, with some level of regression highly likely and the near certainty fact that Kennedy won’t win 21 games again, I’ll probably pass on Kennedy unless he slips outside the top 20 pitchers to about the 9th round.

Hudson is a bit of a different case.  His ERA was lower than his xFIP and SIERA, but the difference wasn’t substantial, and he was fairly luck neutral in the BABIP and LOB% categories.  Essentially, Hudson pitched in 2011 much like he did in his 100 innings with Arizona in 2010 with the main difference being his incredible luck in 2010 that carried him to a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

The thing that concerns me about Hudson is that he seems to have traded some power for some control in 2011.  His K/9 dropped a full point, but his walk rate also fell from 2.55 to 2.03.  I’m sure his manager and pitching coach love this improved control, but as a fantasy owner, I want the K’s.  The key to Hudson’s value this season will be his ability to regain some of the ability to miss bats that he exhibited in the minors and during his first stretch in the majors.

Hudson is likely to be drafted in an appropriate spot, and he should be a solid pick as a 3rd or 4th starter because there’s some upside and not a ton of downside.

Finally, we turn to Cahill.  Your initial reaction might be to think that the move from the Oakland Coliseum to Chase Field would be a downgrade for Cahill.  While the expansive foul territory in Oakland will be missed, Chase Field is deeper than the Coliseum in almost every part of the park. 

And the move will be good for him in other respects.  First of all, Cahill is a heavy groundball pitcher.  His groundball rate was 56% the last two seasons, and Arizona’s top ten defense should really help him turn more of those balls into outs.  Second, Arizona also has an offense that is significantly better than the poo-poo platter Oakland sent to the plate last year.  He should see a few more wins as a result.

The move could also have a positive impact on his strikeout rate.  I’ve written before that facing pitchers could lead to an increase of about 15-20 strikeouts for a high strikeout pitcher.  Cahill is not a high strikeout pitcher as his best K/9 was his 6.37 mark last year.  However, Cahill struck out almost ten batters per nine innings in the minors.  Moreover, his K/9 has gone from 4.53 to 5.40 to 6.37 in the majors.  If his progression in that department continues and he gets 5-10 extra K’s thanks to the NL, then Cahill could potentially hit 7.50 K/9. 

Cahill didn’t have the best control in the minors and regressed in that department last year (2.88 to 3.55).  So he may be a WHIP killer.  But the 4.16 ERA and 1.43 WHIP from last year may scare a lot of people off meaning Cahill could potentially be a nice bargain.  Personally, I think some of the upside will be realized but not all of it.  There’s a moderate bargain to be had.

I should probably warn you mixed-leaguers off Josh Collmenter before I wrap this up.  Don’t be fooled by his 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from last year. His xFIP was 4.14, he was lucky on balls in play (.255 BABIP), and his K/9 was below 6.00.  He’s still young and did post good numbers in the minors, so he’s a definite NL-only option and by no means certain not to ever be relevant again in mixed leagues.  But he’s not right now.

Oh, and Joe Saunders sucks.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad to be back, baby!  You can tell him you wish he would go away again and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(September 3, 2011 - Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)

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Albert Pujols (Credits below)
Albert Pujols leaves St. Louis for LA; 
CJ Wilson leaves Texas for LA

Despite a somewhat shocking change of scenery for Pujols, the new digs don’t figure to change Albert’s production all that much.  Albert will still be Albert.  The real fantasy impact will be felt by the guys that hit in front of him.  The problem is that it’s tough to figure out who those guys will be.  Bobby Abreu and his OBP skills could make him interesting if he’s hitting in the two hole, but who knows if it will be Abreu, Aybar, Kendrick, Trout, or Bourjos in those two slots ahead of the power hitters.

Same league, same division, better ballpark.  Like Pujols, the production from Wilson is unlikely to change much in his new location.  The ballpark could help some, but CJ has always been pretty good about keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.  It’s not as if the new ballpark is going to cover up a weakness of his.  And the ballpark help may just simply come in the form of offsetting some regression as CJ’s ERA has been quite a bit lower than his xFIP in two years as a starter.  All in all, it’s probably status quo for CJ this year.

Marlins sign Jose Reyes

Had the Marlins signed Pujols as well, you could have forecasted a pretty decent uptick in runs for Reyes.  Albert went to  the Angels though, and the analysis on Reyes is pretty much as it would have been had he stayed in New York.  He’ll still be in a lineup with one stud hitting behind him (now the 22 year old masher, Mike Stanton), and his production is all tied to his ability to stay on the field.  He hasn’t played more than 133 games since 2008, so it’s up to you whether you want to take on the risk or not.

Phillies sign Jonathan Papelbon, Marlins sign Heath Bell

Yawn.  It’s dumb to spend early picks on closers.  As far as I concerned, it would not have mattered where these two signed.  They’ll be going too early to ever deserve warranting your attention on draft day.

Rangers sign Joe Nathan, Frankie Francisco and Jon Rauch to the Mets, Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos

Now these are the types of closer transactions fantasy owners should give a damn about.  Because it’s not too difficult to find a closer who can get you 30+ saves late in drafts (*), these are the names you should be scrutinizing in your effort to find cheap saves.

(*) Eight guys drafted in 18th round or later recorded 30+ saves last season.

Despite recording just 14 saves last year, Nathan may go a little higher in drafts than this 18th round or later target range of mine simply because he still has some name value.  Santos is likely to be out of that range as well because he was one of the value closers who got 30 saves last season.

Amusingly, Francisco and Rauch, who competed for saves in Toronto’s bullpen last season, both signed with the Mets.  Early indications are that Francisco will get the first shot at closing.  And he should get the first shot because he’s simply a better pitcher than Rauch.  Compare their number from last year:

The presence of Rauch isn’t ideal, but if Francisco pitches like he’s capable of pitching, he should hold on to that role and provide some really cheap saves from the 20th round or so.

Just as important as the teams these closers have signed with are the teams they have left behind.  Santos has filled the Francisco/Rauch hole in Toronto, and the Twins re-signed the abysmal Matt Capps (who I wouldn’t draft with my worst enemy’s team).  That leaves the White Sox and their closer role.

With Chris Sale slotted to try out the rotation, Matt Thornton has to be the man, doesn’t he?  For one thing, they’ll be paying him 5.5MM.  For another, he’s a good pitcher.  He lost the role after a rough start last year, but from May 1 on he was pretty damn good.  Check out his numbers from that point on:

Uh, nothing wrong with that, right?  Assuming Thornton is the guy (and Ozzie Guillen leaving shouldn’t hurt his cause), he’ll likely be way undervalued.  He could potentially be one of the bigger steals at the closer position in 2012 drafts.

Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez to Kansas City for Melky Cabrera

From a pure baseball perspective, this trade made a lot of sense for both teams.  But from a fantasy perspective, neither player is likely to benefit from this deal.  Sanchez moves to the tougher league and, as a pitcher whose value is based on strikeouts, will take a decent hit in his K totals by not being in the NL anymore (**).

(**) For a high volume strikeout guy, the difference between AL and NL is worth between 15-20 K’s simply because of whether or not you’re facing pitchers.

As for Melky, he was likely to come down off his 2011 high as it were (***), and the move to San Francisco’s ballpark isn’t going to help mitigate the regression.  Because of his stellar 2011, Melky will most certainly be overvalued and is a stay away for smart fantasy owners.

(***) .305/.339/.470 with 18 HR, 20 SB, 102 R and 87 RBI...from Melky Cabrera.  GEEZUS!

Dodgers sign Chris Capuano

Believe it or not, this may be my favorite signing so far this offseason. 

Capuano was sneakily good last year.  His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP might not look too appealing, but they’re not at all indicative of how he really pitched.  Of the things Capuano can control, he was actually quite good.  His 8.13 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, and 3.17 K:BB are all excellent numbers that helped him post a SIERA and xFIP in the 3.60 range.  He had bad luck with balls in play as his .312 BABIP was the 18th highest among starting pitchers. 

If his luck turns around and his recent K numbers are for real, Capuano could easily post a sub-4.00 ERA.  If that happens, he has the potential to provide immense value to fantasy owners.

LA also signed Aaron Harang, but he was much better at home (3.05 ERA) than he was on the road (4.70 ERA) last year, so I’m not touching him outside of Petco.

Diamondbacks resign Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill is a good baseball player. 

That belief has bit me in the ass (twice), but I stand by that belief.  Upon receiving his first full complement of at-bats in the bigs in 2006 and 2007, he posted consecutive .291 batting averages at ages 24 and 25 while developing some power (17 HR) in his age 25 season.  After missing all but 55 games due to injury in 2008, Hill broke out in a big way in 2009 with a .286 average, 36 HR, and 100+ RBI.  Then disaster struck.  In 2010, the BABIP gods forsook him and he ended up with an impossibly low BABIP of .196 that year.  He failed to turn things around in 2011, so Toronto shipped him to Arizona in late August.

And then things started to get a little better.  In 33 games with the D’Backs he posted a well-above-respectable slash line of .315/.386/.492.  You could credit the turn around to a change of scenery, a nice hitter’s park, or the move to the NL, but I choose to credit the turn around to the fact that it was inevitable.  And unless Hill slept with a daughter of one of the BABIP gods, I’m going to assume the last 33 games of 2011 weren’t some sick, cruel oasis but rather a sign of better days to come.

So I’m hopping right back on the Aaron Hill train because Aaron Hill is a good baseball player.

Angels deal Jeff Mathis

As a Rangers fan, I’d like to take this opportunity to say SUCK IT, MIKE SCIOSCIA!!!

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who was just informed that it’s 2011, no one hops* on trains anymore.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(December 9, 2011 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)
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You gotta spend money to make money.  That’s the saying, right?  Well this graph shows that, in baseball, spending money only leads to success if you have the ability to spend even more money when you’ve previously spent in the wrong places.  The top two teams in payroll made the playoffs, but the rest of the top ten highest spending teams missed the postseason.  

The key seems to be to spending money in player development while leaving your team the flexibility to address your needs midseason.  Four of this year’s playoff teams fit that description.  Texas, Detroit, St. Louis, and Milwaukee all sit in the 10-20 range of payroll, and all made moves either in the offseason or around the trading deadline to address weaknesses.  The acquisitions of Mike Adams, Doug Fister, Edwin Jackson and Zack Greinke were great additions that filled in holes around teams built primarily with homegrown talent.

Tampa Bay got there purely on their unmatched ability to acquire talent via the draft, and Arizona got there by making two very smart deals that landed them young, team controlled aces in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy.  So yeah, you can spend money to be successful, but you better have a whole lot to spend or know exactly where and how to spend it.
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Click graphic to enlarge.

Infographic provided by David Fung. For more great infographs, follow him on Twitter @cobradave, and be sure to head over to his blog: http://FUNGraphs.tumblr.com

Commentary provided by Brett Talley (@TheRealTal) of TheFantasyFix.com.
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Mike Minor (credits below)
The only possible explanation for Matt Garza not being owned in 1.4% of leagues is that 1.4% of leagues are inactive at this point in the season.  When you consider that and the relative lack of big ownership increases lately, it becomes clear that fantasy baseball is beginning to wind down.

A lot of leagues are formalities at this point with one team running away with the roto points.  Other leagues have the playoff teams all but decided and are waiting for the fantasy playoffs to start.  And some leagues don’t allow add/drops once the playoffs start.

Not to mention the fact that tons of people have shifted into full blown fantasy football mode.

So this will be the last ‘The Rubber’ of the season.  The last normal one that is.  Next week I’ll post my top 50 keeper list with some commentary attached.

But for this last regular edition of ‘The Rubber,’ I’ve selected four guys that are owned in less than 20% of leagues who could be useful down the stretch based on the matchups they will draw.

Matchups assume the pitcher starts every fifth game. 

Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, 19.8% owned) Matchups: @NYM, LAD, @STL, FLA, @FLA, PHI

It’s not all gravy for Minor as probable starts at St. Louis and home to Philly aren’t ideal.  However, Philly is likely to have the division all wrapped up by the last series of the season, so it’s possible that Minor might see a diluted Phillies lineup.

A lot of Minor’s value may depend on whether Tommy Hanson can make it back, but after a recent setback for Hanson, Minor’s chances of sticking in the majors the rest of the season look much better.

In four August starts, Minor has posted a 2.65 xFIP, 26 K’s in 22.1 IP and has issued only 4 walks.  His 1.38 WHIP over that span is driven by a BABIP over .400.  With more favorable starts than questionable starts coming up, Minor should be able to keep this little roll going.


Doug Fister (Detroit Tigers, 7.4% owned) Matchups: @TB, KC, CWS, MIN, @OAK, @KC, CLE 

Now there is a truly appetizing list of probable starts.  There isn’t a single team on that list in the top 10 in runs or home runs this season.  Fister also happens to be a pretty good pitcher.  He isn’t going to strike anybody out, but he’s a pretty reliable sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP type of guy.  Someone who can help with ratios this late in the season is a difficult thing to find.

There is some concern that Fister won’t be the same without the help of Safeco in Seattle, but Detroit’s Comerica Park isn’t exactly a hitter’s park either.  In fact, Fister has had his two best outings as a Tiger there.  He held Cleveland and Texas to one and two runs respectively over seven innings in each start.  He had a little trouble with Baltimore, but that was on the road.  And his other start was cut short due to rain.

Fister easily has the most cake schedule of the four guys listed here.  Grab him.


Chris Capuano (New York Mets, 2.7% owned) Matchups: ATL, FLA, @FLA, CHC, @ATL, @STL, CIN 

Capuano’s ERA by month: 6.04, 3.99, 3.25, 5.23, 5.70

Capuano’s xFIP by month: 4.22, 3.79, 3.48, 4.08, 3.78

From a skills standpoint, Capuano has been pretty consistent.  But the luck (namely his strand rate) has varied.  All in all, Capuano has been pretty good.  He’s striking guys out at an acceptable clip (7.62 K/9), showing decent control (2.72 BB/9), and has a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00.

Admittedly, the matchups against the Cardinals and Reds at the end of month are a bit scary, but the next five starts aren’t that intimidating at all.  Capuano is available in almost every shallow league and likely widely available in deeper formats.  Take advantage of his low ownership percentage, decent skill set, and favorable schedule.

Wade LeBlanc (San Diego Padres, 0,2% owned) Matchups: @ARI, @LAD, SF, @ARI, ARI, LAD, CHC 

We’re going deep with this one.  I’m talking NL-only fantasy baseball(s) deep.  And to be honest, LeBlanc’s matchups aren’t spectacular.  Especially considering that he has to face a decent (and contending) Arizona team three times.  But it’s not the worst list of matchups ever, and he does get four more starts at Petco.

For most, LeBlanc isn’t someone that any attention need be paid to.  But for those of you in NL-only leagues, LeBlanc is probably one of the only options left, if not the only option left, on a waiver wire that is likely picked clean at this point.

He was decent in over a 100 AAA innings this season with a 3.27 FIP and K/BB over 3.00.  That doesn’t mean he’s going to be a ton of help, but he might marginally contribute for those of you struggling to meet the start limit in deeper leagues.



Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.


The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11

I’ll be honest, I have no idea why it took me so long to have Greinke in the top 5 or even the top 10 for that matter.  Check out his numbers:

2.36 SIERA, 10.90 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 5.17 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 64.3% LOB%

6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  8
8. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  12
12. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  13
13. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.6% owned | Last week:  15

Still can’t get over my boyfriend not being 100% owned.

14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5

Depending on what we hear on Hamels’ injury, he could be back in top 10 or out of the top 50 by next week.  Hopefully, his recovery doesn’t go the way Tommy Hanson’s did.

16. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  17
17. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |65.2% owned |Last week: 18
18. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 99.2% owned | Last week: 19
19. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 25
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 96.8% owned | Last week: 20
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  21
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week:  22
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  23
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  24
25. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 97.9% owned | Last week:  16
26. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  31
27. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  30
28. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 27
29. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 73.5% owned | Last week: 42
30. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
31. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  28
32. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 37
33. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 96.0% owned | Last week:  26
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  32
35. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 33
36. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 38
37. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 41.3% owned | Last week: 48

To look up the remaining six or seven starts for each guy in the top 50 would have taken me hours.  This isn’t my full-time job,[1] so I didn’t devote the hours to that task.  However, I did come across a pretty sweet schedule for Lilly.

Matchups: COL, SD, @WAS, @SF, PIT, SF, @ARI 

I’m sure there are other guys in the top 50 who should be moved up or down based on who they face the rest of the way, but Lilly is the only one I happened to come across while looking for guys to highlight in the intro.

38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 83.7% owned | Last week:  38
39. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 98.0% owned | Last week: 40
40. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 91.3% owned | Last week:  43
41. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.8% owned | Last week: 34
42. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  36
43. Erik Bedard | Boston Red Sox | 55.6% owned | Last week: NR
44. Jeff Niemann | Tampa Bay Rays | 90.7% owned | Last week: NR

Welcome to ‘The Rubber,’ Mr. Niemann and Mr. Bedard.  I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Bedard’s arm while on the rubber.  And I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Niemann that would.....well, keep him from turning back into Jeff Niemann.  But for now both guys are pitching well.

45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 51.4% owned | Last week: 45
46. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 55.9% owned | Last week: 49
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 67.6% owned | Last week: 50
48. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.5% owned | Last week:  47
49. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 31.7% owned | Last week: 44
50. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |70.1% owned | Last week:  46

Out this week: Jonathon Niese, Tommy Hanson

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is balls deep in Matt Garza in any type of league.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL

[1] My actual full-time job is really 3 hours of sitting in class four days a week and then drinking, playing video games, and watching TV the rest of the time.

(August 22, 2011 - Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix,  2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, The Rubber
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Johnny Cueto (credits below)
There are three pitchers currently owned in 100% of ESPN.com leagues that have not appeared in The Rubber’s top 50 at any point this season and are not included in this week’s rankings.  As a result, I feel like I ought to explain myself.

I covered Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants) last week, but I haven’t touched on Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds) and Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay Rays) much, if at all, this season.

If Cueto had the innings to qualify, he would lead all of major league baseball in ERA with the only sub-2.00 ERA.  Throw in the 1.02 WHIP and there is little doubt that Cueto has provided a huge return for those who made the negligible investment of picking him up off the waiver wire.

The problem is that it’s all smoke and mirrors.  We’re talking smoldering and funhouse-like reflections.

Let’s start with the .227 BABIP.  Even if we cut Cueto some slack and say his career .281 BABIP is a fair regression point instead of the usual .300, that still puts him over 50 points below where he should be in that category.  That shows that the 1.02 WHIP has less to do with the good-not-great walk rate (which Cueto can control) and more to do with batted balls not falling for hits (which Cueto can’t control).

The low BABIP also contributes to the artificially low ERA.  The best ERA estimators (xFIP and SIERA) say Cueto’s ERA should be almost 4.00 based on how he has pitched this season.  Some pitchers (like Matt Cain and possibly Jair Jurrjens) have shown some ability to consistently outperform their peripherals, but Cueto’s 100 or so innings this season is far from a large enough sample size to include him in that class. 

Also helping with the deceptively low ERA are the HR/FB rate (5.3%, which is about half Cueto’s career rate) and the suddenly above average groundball rate (52.6%).  The HR/FB rate has to come up at some point and will contribute to the impending regression, but the groundball rate is potentially a mitigating factor.  However, Cueto was pretty consistently a 40% groundball pitcher over his first 500 innings, so it’s more likely than not that the sudden improvement is an aberration.

The only additional number of Cueto’s to look at is strikeout rate.  Depending on how high it is, it could make regression less pronounced.  However, Cueto’s K/9 is under 6.00.  As a result, there is little doubt in my mind that this little run of Johnny’s will end sooner rather than later.  You’d be wise to address a need and fill that hole for the stretch run by dealing Cueto.

As for Hellickson, you may not know it yet, but he has taken a huge step back in his first full major league season.  The 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP might be hiding that fact from some, but Hellickson has not been the same pitcher that he was during his brief call up last season.

Like Cueto, Hellickson is benefitting from a low BABIP.  His current .234 mark is unsustainable.  Moreover, his 79.3% strand rate is high enough that regression is likely in that category as well.

And where have the strikeouts gone?  Not to mention the control.  His K/9 is down to 6.03 while his BB/9 is up to 3.35.  Those two numbers look far too much like Clay Buchholz’s for my liking.

The ERA estimators see right through Hellickson.  SIERA and xFIP have him pegged as a 4.50-sh ERA pitcher this season.  It’s certainly possible that Hellickson is just going through some growing pains and adjusting to major league hitting, but someone in your league may not realize that.  Deal Hellickson if you can and let someone else’s roto numbers feel the effects of Hellickson’s regression.

Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.


The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  7
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  8
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11
12. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  13
13. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  14
14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  15
15. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.0% owned | Last week:  17
16. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  18
17. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  19
18. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |61.2% owned |Last week: 16

I could spend a few paragraphs detailing how Anibal has been baseball’s unluckiest pitcher the last couple of months, or I could just link to this article and let Peter Christensen explain.

19. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 97.2% owned | Last week: 21
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 99.6% owned | Last week: 22
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  23
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week:  26
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  24
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  27
25. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 30
26. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week:  20
27. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 25
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  28
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
30. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  31
31. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  32
32. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  34
33. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 43
34. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 35.2% owned | Last week: 38
35. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  12

With so little time left in the season, missing two or three starts will really hurt Hanson’s value.  But as soon as he returns Hanson becomes a top 15 play again.

36. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  40
37. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 98.7% owned | Last week: 42
38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 90.9% owned | Last week:  33
39. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 37
40. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.0% owned | Last week: 35
41. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 22.7% owned | Last week: 36
42. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 52.0% owned | Last week: NR

Luebke is the only new addition to this week’s top 50, and I must admit that I’ve overlooked him for a couple of weeks now because he doesn’t have the innings pitched necessary to qualify for the ERA title.

However, Luebke absolutely deserves a top 50 ranking.  In fact, I’m not sure I have him ranked high enough.  His current ERA of 3.00 is backed up by SIERA and xFIP, both of which have Luebke as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  Any luck he has received hasn’t been too drastic.  His BABIP is only .262, he’s actually been a touch unlucky in the strand rate department, and his low-ish HR/FB rate shouldn’t regress too much thanks to the home run suppressing Petco Park.

And how about the K/BB rate close to 4.00 thanks to a 9.55 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9?  Those are some stellar numbers. 

Admittedly, Luebke didn’t display this kind of strikeout ability in the minors, so strikeout levels this high could be a flash in the pan.  But, for now, Luebke looks like a legit option that should be owned in far more leagues than he currently is.

43. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 86.8% owned | Last week:  39
44. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 34.6% owned | Last week: 41
45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 47.7% owned | Last week: 44
46. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |81.6% owned | Last week:  45
47. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.2% owned | Last week:  46
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 40.1% owned | Last week: 48
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 60.5% owned | Last week: 49
50. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 66.0% owned | Last week: 47

Out this week: Edwin Jackson

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who [insert witty/self-deprecating comment here].  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(August 10, 2011 - Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix,  2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, The Rubber
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Alexi Ogando (see credits below)
Regression.

It’s a word that has been used at some point in the last eight versions of The Rubber.  It’s been used a total of 29 times in those eight weeks. 

Yet, for as frequently as I use the term, I still don’t completely understand how regression works.  For example, if a pitcher has an ERA of 2.00, but the ERA estimators (i.e. xFIP and SIERA) say his ERA should be 3.00, what does that mean exactly?

Does that mean we should expect his ERA to regress all the way back to 3.00?  Or does that mean we should expect that pitcher’s ERA from that point forward to be around 3.00?

The query makes me think of probability lessons in high school math class.  Probability says that if you roll a die and see a ‘six,’ you are no less likely to see another ‘six’ the next time you roll the die.  However, a pitcher doesn’t throw any two pitches where all the variables are exactly the same, as they are when you roll a die.  Moreover, given a large enough number of rolls, you’re likely to see a pretty even distribution of the numbers that come up on that die.

I understand that the end of the season is a completely arbitrary endpoint, but for the purposes of fantasy baseball, I thought it might be useful to know if pitchers are seeing their ERA’s fall all the way back to their ERA estimators within the same season.

In an attempt to answer this question, I’ve decided to take a look at some guys I’ve identified as candidates for regression throughout the year despite the small sample sizes, arbitrary endpoints and limited number of players to observe.  Maybe some sort of pattern will emerge.

Alexi Ogando (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
After a complete game shutout of the White Sox on May 23, Ogando’s ERA reached its low point of 1.81.  All season long, the ERA estimators have said Ogando’s ERA should have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.60-3.70.  So, since the shutout of the Sox, has Ogando been a 3.70 ERA guy or worse?

Since that day, Ogando’s ERA has been 4.36 over 14 starts.  However, that only brings his season ERA up to 2.88, which is a run higher than it was at its lowest but still almost a run lower than what the ERA estimators indicate it should be.

Ogando’s defenders will argue that his regression is a result of his large innings increase as he has already thrown about 60 more innings than he did last season.  And it’s a legitimate defense of Ogando. Either way, I expect Ogando’s ERA to be closer to 3.60 than 2.90 by season’s end.

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves, 98.9% owned)
Heading into the All-Star break, Jurrjens had an ERA under 2.00.  However, the ERA estimators said it should be closer to 4.00.  In the four starts after the Break, Jurrjens hit a rough patch and saw his ERA rise almost a full run up to 2.63. 

Once again, Jurrjens defenders have an excuse for the regression.  Jurrjens was placed on the DL on August 2 with a strained knee and one could argue it was the cause of his recent struggles. 

As far as I’m concerned, the DL stint is just a two week interruption in helping to answer my question.  When Jurrjens gets back, I’ll be interested to see if his ERA the rest of the way looks more like the 6.00+ number he put up post All-Star break or the 4.00 number of which SIERA says he’s capable.

Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians, 53.8% owned)
At the end of May, Tomlin owned a 2.74 ERA.  The ERA estimators said it should have been around 4.00.  Just over two months later, Tomlin’s 4.08 ERA is almost identical to his 4.07 SIERA.  We can count Tomlin as a guy who regressed all the way to the mean rather than just a guy who began pitching like the mean said he should have been pitching all along.

Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)

For the most part, Vogelsong has avoided the regression monster (although his five earned allowed to the Pirates on Monday could be the beginning of the end). 

However, the thing that jumps out at me when looking at Vogelsong’s numbers is his strikeout rate.  His 7.05 K/9 resembles Ogando’s 6.85 mark and is markedly better that Jurrjens’ 5.72 or Tomlin’s 4.81.  Could it be that a pitcher’s ability to rack up K’s could determine whether he will crash back to the mean or simply begin to pitch as he should have all along?

Someone much smarter and with access to more sortable information would have to examine the question further in order to find a definitive answer.  But it does seem to make some amount of sense to me that pitchers who can get more outs via something they can control (the strikeout) would be more likely to avoid a full regression to the mean and rather simply be all that SIERA says they can be.

Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.

The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  8
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11
12. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  12
13. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  13
14. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  15
16. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |81.4% owned |Last week: 17
17. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.9% owned | Last week:  18
18. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  16
19. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  19
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week:  20
21. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 92.0% owned | Last week: 26
22. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 95.5% owned | Last week: 28
23. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  27
24. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  22
25. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 23
26. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 98.6% owned | Last week:  30
27. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  31
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  24
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  32
30. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 99.7% owned | Last week: 40
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  33
32. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  29
33. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 95.0% owned | Last week:  35
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  25
35. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.9% owned | Last week: 36
36. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 19.8% owned | Last week: 39
37. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 46
38. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.0% owned | Last week: 34
39. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 85.1% owned | Last week:  37
40. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  44
41. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 56.4% owned | Last week: 42
42. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 95.6% owned | Last week: NR
43. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 47
44. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 42.7% owned | Last week: NR
45. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |74.3% owned | Last week:  41
46. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.9% owned | Last week:  38
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 40.5% owned | Last week: 48
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.5 % owned | Last week: NR
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 65.7% owned | Last week: NR
50. Edwin Jackson | St. Louis Cardinals | 39.9% owned| Last week: 45

Out this week:  Juan Nicasio, Scott Baker, Chris Narveson, Jhoulys Chacin

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is a terrible Rangers fan because he gets all giddy when Alexi Ogando has a bad start.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.


(August 8, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix,  2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, The Rubber
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