We are nearly a month into the regular season and we've seen some of the studs struggle and some late round picks flourish. So I figured this was a good time for some fun with small sample sizes in the form of Blind Resumes. But first, some news.
Quick News
In case you missed it, Joe Nathan was replaced Sunday in the Twins' closer role by Matt Capps who was acquired last season from the Nationals. Capps is more than capable as a closer, and last year had a 2.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 16 saves for the Twins. For the year, Capps had 42 total saves for Washington and Minnesota which put him 5th amongst all pitchers in saves.
As far as Nathan goes, the Twins may just be giving him some time to get his confidence back in relief before giving him a chance at closing games again. However, with Nathan at age 36, Minnesota may be giving a long look at the 28-year old Capps to see if he could be their closer for years to come. Capps should be added in all leagues, and Nathan can be dropped except for deep mixed and AL-only leagues where saves are at a premium.
Mitchell Boggs has emerged from the implosion of Ryan Franklin to get the first chance at closing games for the Cardinals and was successful Wednesday night against the Nationals, allowing only one hit in the 9th while striking out one batter. Boggs currently has a 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP and has been the best reliever in the St. Louis bullpen.
I believe Boggs will be the guy until he fails, but the fact is Tony LaRussa is not like any other manager, and his decisions can sometimes be unconventional (to put it nicely). Boggs should still be owned in every league, and Franklin can be dropped in most mixed leagues, where saves are usually plentiful on the waiver wire.
Blind Resumes
Pair 1
Player A - 9.2 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 5 K, 5 Saves, 1 Blown, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Player B - 10.0 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 2.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Player A was drafted as the 5th closer taken on average, and Player B was taken behind names such as Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano, and Ryan Madson. Those two clues should tell you that Player A is Joakim Soria, and Player B is Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates, and Hanrahan as of now has clearly been better.
Both the Pirates and the Royals are in similar situations in that they will not be blowing out many teams, therefore the opportunities for them to win will also likely be save opportunities. Soria will surely lower his ERA and WHIP in his time with the Royals, while Hanrahan may be a crapshoot, having never spent a full season closing in the majors. If you're not totally sold on Hanrahan, now is the time to sell high and get back as much as you can.
Pair 2
Player A - 9.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 3 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Player B - 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Player A is a 23-year old fireballer with a high K/9 ratio. and the other, believe it or not, is Craig Kimbrel. If you guessed Player A was Jordan Walden, you would be correct.
Both young men are sure to be dynasty league studs for years to come, and each give you something different with their strikeouts and saves. Walden is one of the few relievers to still have an ERA of 0 while Kimbrel has a K/9 rate of almost 15. Both guys have a little competition in Fernando Rodney and Jonny Venters respectively, but will hang on to the job as long as they are successful.
Pair 3
Player A - 8.2 IP, 4 H, 8 BB, 7 K, 2 Saves, 1 Blown, 2.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Player B - 6.1 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown, 8.53 ERA, 2.21 WHIP
By the numbers, neither one of these pitchers has been very good for their respective teams, yet only one of them continues in the closer job and that's Player B, John Axford of the Brewers. Player A is none other than Fernando Rodney, whose one blown save cost him his job and allowed young Jordan Walden to take over.
Axford has had the benefit of very little competition, with the only real competition being Kameron Loe, Zach Braddock, and LaTroy Hawkins who comes off the DL Friday. With such lack of competition to his job, Axford should continue in his closer role until he suffers an epic fail or a major injury. Rodney will get an occasional save when Walden is not available, but is not worth rostering except in AL-only leagues.
Pair 4
Player A - 8.1 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.13 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Both of these closers are projected for 45+ saves this year, but Player B was drafted 80 picks after Player A on average. Player A, better known as Neftali Feliz of the Rangers, has had a very good start after a controversial Spring Training, but Player B, Mr. J.J. Putz, is so far the better value based on draft position.
Feliz will be a great guy to have in dynasty leagues for years to come, but Putz is the type of player you get late in drafts that helps you win leagues. If you have a Putz owner willing to give him up, he is worth trading for as he should stay solid all year.
Pair 5
Player A - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
There was quite a gap between these two players at the beginning of the season. In my preseason rankings Player A was #2, while Player B was not even mentioned, yet the two have been very similar these first few weeks. Player A is San Diego's Heath Bell, while Player B is Jose Contreras, who only gained his job through an injury to Brad Lidge.
Contreras's fill-in role was only supposed to be a few weeks until the news that Lidge's injury will keep him out until the All-Star Break, and Contreras has showed he is up for the job. He is the only pitcher with 4+ saves that has not allowed an earned run, a stat that should give him a long leash. Bell's leash is as long as it gets, and the job will be his until he suffers an injury or is traded.
The point in all of this is simple: don't panic if someone is struggling, and don't rush to trade someone unless you truly don't believe. These are perfect examples of small sample sizes that cause fantasy owners to freak out and irrationally drop or add players they shouldn't. Hold strong with the guys that currently have the job, and only drop those that clearly have no value in your style of league.
Blown Save of the Week
Mariano Rivera, the Major League Leader in saves, gets this week's Blown Save Award, mainly because it may be his only one all year. He blew a chance at his 8th save against the Blue Jays, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits to let the Jays tie up the ballgame. Those two earned runs would raise Rivera's ERA from 0.00 to 1.93, which may be a high water mark for him all season.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
(April 18, 2011 - Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)
Quick News
In case you missed it, Joe Nathan was replaced Sunday in the Twins' closer role by Matt Capps who was acquired last season from the Nationals. Capps is more than capable as a closer, and last year had a 2.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 16 saves for the Twins. For the year, Capps had 42 total saves for Washington and Minnesota which put him 5th amongst all pitchers in saves.
As far as Nathan goes, the Twins may just be giving him some time to get his confidence back in relief before giving him a chance at closing games again. However, with Nathan at age 36, Minnesota may be giving a long look at the 28-year old Capps to see if he could be their closer for years to come. Capps should be added in all leagues, and Nathan can be dropped except for deep mixed and AL-only leagues where saves are at a premium.
Mitchell Boggs has emerged from the implosion of Ryan Franklin to get the first chance at closing games for the Cardinals and was successful Wednesday night against the Nationals, allowing only one hit in the 9th while striking out one batter. Boggs currently has a 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP and has been the best reliever in the St. Louis bullpen.
I believe Boggs will be the guy until he fails, but the fact is Tony LaRussa is not like any other manager, and his decisions can sometimes be unconventional (to put it nicely). Boggs should still be owned in every league, and Franklin can be dropped in most mixed leagues, where saves are usually plentiful on the waiver wire.
Blind Resumes
Pair 1
Player A - 9.2 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 5 K, 5 Saves, 1 Blown, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Player B - 10.0 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 2.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Player A was drafted as the 5th closer taken on average, and Player B was taken behind names such as Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano, and Ryan Madson. Those two clues should tell you that Player A is Joakim Soria, and Player B is Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates, and Hanrahan as of now has clearly been better.
Both the Pirates and the Royals are in similar situations in that they will not be blowing out many teams, therefore the opportunities for them to win will also likely be save opportunities. Soria will surely lower his ERA and WHIP in his time with the Royals, while Hanrahan may be a crapshoot, having never spent a full season closing in the majors. If you're not totally sold on Hanrahan, now is the time to sell high and get back as much as you can.
Pair 2
Player A - 9.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 3 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Player B - 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Player A is a 23-year old fireballer with a high K/9 ratio. and the other, believe it or not, is Craig Kimbrel. If you guessed Player A was Jordan Walden, you would be correct.
Both young men are sure to be dynasty league studs for years to come, and each give you something different with their strikeouts and saves. Walden is one of the few relievers to still have an ERA of 0 while Kimbrel has a K/9 rate of almost 15. Both guys have a little competition in Fernando Rodney and Jonny Venters respectively, but will hang on to the job as long as they are successful.
Pair 3
Player A - 8.2 IP, 4 H, 8 BB, 7 K, 2 Saves, 1 Blown, 2.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Player B - 6.1 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown, 8.53 ERA, 2.21 WHIP
By the numbers, neither one of these pitchers has been very good for their respective teams, yet only one of them continues in the closer job and that's Player B, John Axford of the Brewers. Player A is none other than Fernando Rodney, whose one blown save cost him his job and allowed young Jordan Walden to take over.
Axford has had the benefit of very little competition, with the only real competition being Kameron Loe, Zach Braddock, and LaTroy Hawkins who comes off the DL Friday. With such lack of competition to his job, Axford should continue in his closer role until he suffers an epic fail or a major injury. Rodney will get an occasional save when Walden is not available, but is not worth rostering except in AL-only leagues.
Pair 4
Player A - 8.1 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.13 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Both of these closers are projected for 45+ saves this year, but Player B was drafted 80 picks after Player A on average. Player A, better known as Neftali Feliz of the Rangers, has had a very good start after a controversial Spring Training, but Player B, Mr. J.J. Putz, is so far the better value based on draft position.
Feliz will be a great guy to have in dynasty leagues for years to come, but Putz is the type of player you get late in drafts that helps you win leagues. If you have a Putz owner willing to give him up, he is worth trading for as he should stay solid all year.
Pair 5
Player A - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
There was quite a gap between these two players at the beginning of the season. In my preseason rankings Player A was #2, while Player B was not even mentioned, yet the two have been very similar these first few weeks. Player A is San Diego's Heath Bell, while Player B is Jose Contreras, who only gained his job through an injury to Brad Lidge.
Contreras's fill-in role was only supposed to be a few weeks until the news that Lidge's injury will keep him out until the All-Star Break, and Contreras has showed he is up for the job. He is the only pitcher with 4+ saves that has not allowed an earned run, a stat that should give him a long leash. Bell's leash is as long as it gets, and the job will be his until he suffers an injury or is traded.
The point in all of this is simple: don't panic if someone is struggling, and don't rush to trade someone unless you truly don't believe. These are perfect examples of small sample sizes that cause fantasy owners to freak out and irrationally drop or add players they shouldn't. Hold strong with the guys that currently have the job, and only drop those that clearly have no value in your style of league.
Blown Save of the Week
Mariano Rivera, the Major League Leader in saves, gets this week's Blown Save Award, mainly because it may be his only one all year. He blew a chance at his 8th save against the Blue Jays, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits to let the Jays tie up the ballgame. Those two earned runs would raise Rivera's ERA from 0.00 to 1.93, which may be a high water mark for him all season.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
(April 18, 2011 - Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Closer Report, Closer Carousel, Jim Dingeman, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Closers
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