2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
The Fix's 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Week 13: Brett & Corey Tab The First Half All-Stars 06/28/2011
 Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com tab the Fantasy Baseball All-Stars as well as the All-Value Team for the first half of 2011. They also answer some "mailbag" questions from Twitter or the "Quick Fix" this week. If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Podcast, Brett Talley, Corey Herron, All-Star, Buy-Low, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Jose Reyes, Matt Kemp Add Comment  Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com bless the world with their tenth, yes TENTH podcast for week 8. In episode ten: -Brett & Corey talk Buster Posey's fibula and fantasy baseball replacements -Brett discusses the trials and tribulations of moving home and Corey loses a toe. -Josh Johnson, Jorge de la Rosa and Matt Garza -Nick Swisher, Seth Smith & Other players to eye with your OFs on the DL. -Play a little "Are You Buying", featuring Jair Jurrjens, Josh Tomlin & Erik Bedard -And they don't answer any "mailbag" questions from Twitter or the "Quick Fix" this week because Alan got stuck in traffic and couldn't send them over. Press play below and be thirty-six minutes closer to winning your fantasy baseball league! If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Ben Zobrist, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Podcast Brett Talley, Corey Herron, Buster Posey Injury, Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, Geovany Soto, J.P. Arencibia, Nick Swisher, Seth Smith, Shane Victorino, Jose Tabata, Michael Morse, Jair Jurrjens, Josh Tomlin, Erik Bedard The Fix's 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Week 7: David Wright's Broken Back & Closers On The DL 05/20/2011
 Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com bless the world with their ninth podcast for the end of week seven. In episode nine: -Brett & Corey talk David Wright, Mike Napoli and Danny Valencia -Corey gives Brett a new nickname and introduces "Frank" -The fellas display their man-hate for Clay Buchholz and man-crush on Matt Garza -Answer a bunch of "mailbag" questions from Twitter and the "Quick Fix" Press play below and be forty-two minutes closer to winning your fantasy baseball league! If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Ben Zobrist, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Podcast Brett Talley, Corey Herron, Eric Hosmer, David Wright, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz, Mike Napoli, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Vincente Padilla, Rafael Furcal  Today I would like to talk about going on hiatus. First of all, let me apologize to TheFantasyFix.com world for not writing a new Finding the Mean article in a month. I received a new assignment at work that is a huge upgrade in the actual amount of real work I must do. To put it in baseball terms, it is the equivalent of pitching every game in Petco and then moving to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. As Matt Harrison can tell you, the latter can be brutal. In my defense, however, I am not the only person who took the month of April off. Many fantasy studs seem to have decided to go on strike this season. Some have done so through lack of production such as Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn. Others have done so through injuries such as Evan Longoria, Josh Hamilton, and Ryan Zimmerman. I guess my lack of writing can only be attributed to the lack of production as opposed to injury. The only injury I received in the month of April would be the occasional (ok maybe not so occasional) hangover. But I digress. Let my finish this ramble of a preamble by saying that my goal is to do one of these every week. I will not make promises other than it will not be a whole month before you read me again. Sorry once more, and let’s get to baseball. Normally, each week I give you a hitter and a pitcher who are underperforming and will eventually right the ship. This week I thought I would talk about some guys who I believe are over-performing and will eventually trend back to the fantasy muck from whence they came. Just remember, everyone regresses to the mean eventually. The first hitter is currently the second most added player in ESPN leagues, Justin Smoak. I think it is safe to say that his season thus far has been “Smoak and Mirrors.” Totally terrible joke I know, but seriously, this guy will not hit anywhere close to the .296 that he is currently. Right now his BABIP is a bloated .339. For his career, albeit short, that number is .271. I realize that he is only 24 years old, but I do not see a turnaround coming anytime soon. Perhaps I am a bit too biased against the guy because of my Rangers fandom. When we sent him to Seattle for Cliff Lee I could not have been happier. I have always felt like he was vastly overrated. He definitely has some power potential but not anything special (his career high in HR is 22 split between AAA and the Majors). Also, playing in Safeco does not help that potential. Last season Safeco was the second worst hitter’s park in all of baseball, both in runs scored and in home runs. In 2008 and 2009 it was bottom 10 in both categories as well. The offense around him does not help his cause either. Currently the Mariners are sixth worst in runs scored in the Major Leagues. That team is composed of Ichiro and basically nothing else offensively. I would sell Smoak in a heartbeat right now if I could. My Prediction for 2011 Justin Smoak: .240, 20 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI Our pitcher this week who is vastly playing over his head is Josh Tomlin. Currently outperforming Tim Lincecum on the ESPN Player Rater, Tomlin has nowhere to go but down. As it stands right now, Tomlin boasts a 2.43 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. Sounds pretty good right? Only when you look closer at the numbers can you see that it’s all Smoak and mirrors. Yeah, I went there twice. First of all, he does not strike anyone out. His K/9 ratio is just over 5. What makes matters worse are all of his “luck” stats. His BABIP stands at a tiny .157, his LOB% is a huge 90.9%, and his tERA is 5.38. Those numbers should tell you everything you need to know. He will regress. Drastically. Whenever the fall from grace starts to happen it will be ugly. My Prediction for 2011 Josh Tomlin 170 IP, 10-13, 100 K, 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP (May 4, 2011 - Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images North America) Written exclusively for the Fantasy Fix by Corey Herron. Corey is an Oil & Gas Landman who is hoping desperately that Eric Hosmer will not put up Smoak and mirrors numbers. You can find him on Twitter @coherron. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Finding the Mean, Corey Herron, Justin Smoak, Josh Tomlin The Fix's 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Week 5: The Third TIme's A Charm & Osama Ben Zobrist 05/03/2011
 Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com give you the sixth episode of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast. In episode seven: -Brett & Corey talk "buy-low, sell-high" targets -Trading Tips -Answer a bunch of "mailbag" questions from Twitter and the "Quick Fix" Press Play Below, and please pardon the quality this week! We experienced some technical difficulties! If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Ben Zobrist, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Podcast Brett Talley, Corey Herron The Fix's 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer & Replacements At Catcher 04/20/2011
 Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com give you the sixth episode of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast. In episode six: -Brett & Corey talk injured catchers Victor Martinez & Joe Mauer & replacements -Aaron Hill, Jerry Sands, Ian Stewart & more! -Answer a bunch of "mailbag" questions from Twitter and the "Quick Fix" Press Play Below! If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: The Fix, Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Aaron Hill, Jerry Sands, Brett Talley, Corey Herron, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice  Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com give you the fifth episode of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast. In episode five: -Brett & Corey Corey "pat themselves on the back" -Rafael Furcal & Josh Hamilton Injuries & Fantasy Baseball replacements -Buying or Selling on players like Asdrubal Cabrera, Sam Fuld, Russell Martin? -Check in on the closers Go ahead, press play below and listen to their latest podcast as you read the rest of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball articles on the page! Don't forget to check back next week when the Fix fellas discuss the third week of the 2011 MLB season. If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Josh Hamilton, Rafael Furcal, Sam Fuld, Russell Martin, Rajai Davis, Willie Bloomquist, Brett Talley, Corey Herron  Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com give you their fourth episode of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast. In episode four: -Brett & Corey discuss Corey's "man crush" on the Texas Rangers -Evan Longoria & Matt Holliday's trip to the DL & fantasy replacements -Introduce a few new weekly segments -Mailbag Go ahead, press play below and listen to their latest podcast as you read the rest of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball articles on the page! Don't forget to check back next week when the Fix fellas discuss the second week of the 2011 MLB season. If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Podcast, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Brett Talley, Corey Herron, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Texas Rangers, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday TheFantasyFix.com's 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Podcast: Episode 3 - Target Pitching 03/28/2011
 Jered Weaver Brett Talley & Corey Herron of TheFantasyFix.com bless you with their third episode of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Podcast. Brett & Corey help you to understand your league settings, discuss which pitchers to target and when you should be drafting them and provide a nice list of pitching sleepers for your mixed leagues. Go ahead, press play below and listen to their latest podcast as you read the rest of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball articles on the page! Once you're finished, head over and pick up our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, and be ready to dominate your league! Don't forget to check back next week when the Fix fellas discuss the first week of the 2011 MLB season. If you have a question that you would like Brett or Corey to address on next week's podcast, leave a comment in the comments section below or shoot them an email: Brett@TheFantasyFix.com External Resources: 2011 Guide to Middle Reliever Methodology  Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Podcast, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Brett Talley, Corey Herron, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Jered Weaver, Mat Latos injury, Pitching, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers  Deadlines. We all have them. I am no exception. In fact, I have a very important assignment for work that is due in approximately 15 hours. No matter what else is going on around me though, I always find myself thinking about fantasy baseball. It truly is an addiction. If Rachel Uchitel had to go on Celebrity Rehab for being addicted to love, then surely Dr. Drew would have something to tell me as well. But they always say addiction can only be cured if the user really wants to be cured. I do not. As of this writing, Opening Day is in 7 days, 17 hours, and 18 minutes. Thus, you are on a deadline as well. You have one week left to complete your drafts for the 2011 season. (Yes, I know some people draft after the season begins, but I’m choosing to believe that these people do not exist). It’s a long 162 game season, but your draft is obviously the most important aspect. The old adage is that you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can definitely lose it. Truer words have never been spoken. To help make draft day a little easier, I am once again here to give you a hitter and a pitcher whose underlying numbers predict future success in the 2011 season. Just remember, everyone regresses to the mean eventually. Don't forget to check out The Fantasy Fix 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! Our hitter this week is Matt Kemp. Wow Corey, you’re really going out on a limb talking about someone being drafted in the top 30? I’m choosing to highlight Kemp because there are some places (cough-CBS-cough) that are in no way giving Kemp the respect he deserves. His average draft position on cbs.com right now is 64. Just let that number sink in for a second. They are basically saying there are 63 better players in fantasy than a guy who had 28 homers and 19 steals in a down year. If any of you out there are in an upcoming CBS draft (and why you would be using CBS is beyond me) make sure you draft Kemp before the fourth round. His ADP on ESPN right now is 27 and I even think he is top 20. This is a guy who is absolutely capable of going 30-30. Although he has never accomplished this feat as of yet, he has had a season of 26-34. When you look at last year, the first thing you notice is his ugly .249 average. his is what we call an outlier. Generally, in every case of analysis on just about any topic, there are variables that completely stick out. It’s called “noise.” Find the mean here: .342 .290 .297 .249. Those are his last 3.5 seasons of batting averages (the .342 was in half a season.) When you average those together you get close to a .288 hitter. That is what Matt Kemp is, a .285-.290 hitter with great power and speed. Oh, and he’s only 26. So why did he suffer so badly last year in the batting average department? He was unlucky. Compare the above numbers to these: .411 .361 .345 .295. Do you see a pattern? These, of course, are his BABIPs over the same 3.5 seasons. Higher BABIPs = higher averages and vice-versa. My Prediction for 2011 Matt Kemp:.290, 30 HR, 25 SB, 85 R, 100 RBI _________________________________________________________ This week’s pitcher is another Matt, however this Matt only has one T in his name, Mat Latos. In this case, it is somewhat hard to find the mean in Latos’ numbers since he is only 23 and the sample size is so small. So instead, let us focus on how truly dominant Mat Latos was last season. The following is where Latos ranked last season amongst starting pitchers: ERA: 13th WHIP: 8th Ks: 19th FIP: 6th xFIP: 9th K/BB: 8th BA Against: 6th This week I am going to introduce you to a new Sabermetric number, tERA. From Fangraphs: “True Runs Allowed (tERA) is a defense-independent metric built by Graham MacAree from StatCorner that is meant to improve upon FIP and xFIP. The most common complaint about FIP and xFIP is that they completely ignore performance on balls in play, while batted balls can still tell us something about a pitcher’s skill level. Groundballs are good (since they normally result in outs), flyballs have a higher probability of resulting in extra basehits, pop-ups are almost guaranteed outs, and line drives are the most likely type to end up as a hit. tERA includes all of these variables and is based on the same scale as ERA, FIP, and xFIP.” Mat Latos had the best tERA in baseball last season, 2.53. If there is one downside to Latos this season, it is the possibility of injury due to innings increases. He threw 56 innings in 2008, 123 in 2009, and 184 last year. That is quite a workload increase for such a young guy. However, if he stays healthy, Mat Latos will be a truly dominant pitcher in an extreme pitcher’s park. My Prediction for 2011 Mat Latos:15-12, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 200 Ks ***Editor’s Note: The day after this writing, news broke that Latos will probably start the season on the DL. Adjust drafts accordingly. Corey Herron is an Oil & Gas Landman who probably won’t make his deadline because of this. You can find him on Twitter @coherron. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (March 3, 2011 - Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)  Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Auction Values, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Corey Herron, Matt Kemp, Mat Latos, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres | 
CategoriesAll NJ SEO Company
 ArchivesFebruary 2012 |
RSS Feed