2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Why to go with Uggla
It’s difficult to find a player at any position who has been more consistent in the power department from year to year than Dan Uggla.  In five full seasons, Uggla has averaged nearly 31 HR and 93 RBI.  He put up these numbers playing half of his games in front of fans dressed as empty seats and hitting in a lineup with little to no protection.  In fact, Uggla was the protection for the Marlins’ star player Hanley Ramirez. 

In addition to his impressive power numbers, Uggla managed to post career-highs in batting average (.287), on-base percentage (.369) and OPS (.877).  This was all accomplished while playing in 159 games last season.  In fact, he’s only missed a total of 34 games in five full seasons, proving to be quite durable. 

As for Pedroia, he missed 87 games last year and another 36 in his three previous full seasons.   His highest power output was in ’08 when he hit 17 HR’s with 83 RBI.  Furthermore, Pedroia’s averages for the previous four seasons are 13 HR and 61 RBI. 

Pedroia does hold an edge over Uggla in the stolen bases category.  Of course, at 5’ 11’ and 207 lbs., Uggla certainly is no threat on the base paths, posting a high of six stolen bases back in ’06.  But then again, neither are most power hitters who bat in the middle of the lineup.  In addition, Pedroia’s career batting average sits at .305 versus Uggla’s .263.  However, last season they hit .288 and .287, respectively.  Uggla’s increasing walk rate and OBP over the past few seasons suggest that he should be able to maintain a higher batting average.

Also, the move to Turner Field, where Uggla owns a career .354 BA and a ridiculous OPS of 1.051 can only benefit him.  As will hitting in a lineup with some “real” protection (McCann, Jones, Prado, Heyward and Freeman).

In summary, among all major league 2B, Uggla was the leader in home runs, was 2nd to only Robinson Cano (by 4) in RBI, was 6th in BA, 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG % as well as OPS.  This performance, on top of his impressive career track record, his durability, and upside potential with the move to Turner Field, makes him the clear choice over Dustin Pedroia. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by Rosti Satanovsky

Why to go with Pedroia
Thirty picks into your draft you'll come to a cross roads.  At this point in the draft you've probably locked up two batters that are going to contribute in home runs and runs batted in.  With so many great players still on the board, it is easy to think you can't go wrong with your pick.  But don't be fooled, this is a great opportunity to fine tune your team with some balance that is tough to find.  You need to add someone to your lineup that is going to lead the league in runs, hit for average, and steal bases. 

Say hello to Dustin Pedroia.

Pedroia sits right outside the top ten in total runs scored over the last three seasons, yet he missed more than half of 2010 with a broken foot.  Packing a career .305 average with 20+ SB potential, he offers the balance that your lineup needs.  Then take into account that we've only discussed his previous production without evaluating his potential production in a new look lineup, the case to take Pedroia starts to make more sense.

The signing of Carl Crawford plus the trade for Adrian Gonzalez mean nothing but good things for Dustin Pedroia's fantasy value.  

There are arguments for Pedroia to hit first, second, and even fifth in the new look Red Sox batting order. This new lineup flexiability could have Pedroia hitting in spots with more runners on than before, if for example Pedroia hits second with Ellsbury hitting ninth and Crawford first.  

However, it is most likely that with a career OBP of .369, Pedroia should see a significant time hitting lead-off.  Then combine Pedroia's teammates ability to drive in runs ability to get on base with his teammates ability to drive in runs....  Everything is lining up for Pedroia to score a ton of runs this year.


Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by James Weston
Tags: The Fantasy Fix Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, 2011 Rankings, First Base, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Rosti Satanovsky, James Weston, Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox, Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves
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Don't be fooled, Sabermetrics can be simple too!  SABR has provided us with some complex statistics to interpret Baseball production, but sometimes we need to take a step back and look at some simple stats to uncover telling information.  In part three of our Sabermetric Series, we're looking at K/9 and how to use it for Fantasy pwnage.

There is no better counting statistic to measure the dominance of a pitcher than the Strikeout.  The Strikeout is one of the few statistics which the Pitcher has the ability to allow his skill to show as compared to statistics where defense is a factor.  It's no coincidence that the league leaders in Strikeouts make up a list of the who's who in our Fantasy game.  But to look simply at the number of strikeouts a pitcher tallies would devalue pitchers who have thrown in a limited number of innings.... Say hello to K/9, Strikeouts per nine Innings

The formula for K/9 is:

K/9 = Strikeouts / (Innings Pitched / 9)

A simple percentage of Strikeouts to batters faced is a telling statistic, but K/9 presents the Strikeouts against the base of one full baseball game.  The baseline allows for interpretation in meaning full baseball terms, as compared to a percentage.  For example, Bud Norris strikes out 23.4% of the batters he faces and Norris tallies 9.20 Strikeouts per nine innings. The strike out percentage doesn't indicate how well he'll tally Strikeouts while K/9 does.

When evaluating K/9, any pitcher approaching a Strikeout per Inning has pitched very well.  Anything above that is very special for starting pitcher, but for a reliever it could be skewed by appearances where the pitcher is in a favorable situation.

The only starting pitchers to produce a K/9 of nine or more in at least 100 IP this year according to Fan Graphs are:

Brandon Morrow - 10.95
Yovanni Gallardo - 9.99
Jered Weaver - 9.89
Clayton Kershaw - 9.75
Francisco Liriano - 9.69
Jon Lester - 9.51
Tim Lincecum - 9.47
Jhoulys Chacin - 9.39
Jonathan Sanchez - 9.27
Mat Latos - 9.25
Bud Norris - 9.20
Manny Parra - 9.13
Cole Hamels - 9.10


One name that may stand out in that list could be Manny Parra, but as an owner of his I can attest that many of his poor outings have been full of Strikeouts.  I've owned him in a points league where his Strikeout tallies have helped me fade the negative points he racked up in his worst appearances.  This probably goes a long way to explaining the persistence of the Brewers as they keep sending him out there every fifth game.

With that said, you don't want to own Parra.  Let him and the Brewers figure things out and keep an eye on the situation, but for the rest of this year, hes a very risky start.

Instead, take a look at Norris as the playoffs start this summer, at only 12% owned in Y! leagues, Bud Norris could be available in your league.  Jhoulys Chacin is another great option and is only owned in 11% of Y! leagues, but there is a risk that the Rockies will move Chacin between MLB and AAA.

As I said earlier, anything above nine K/9 is special.  But a pitcher who finds his K/9 above seven is still doing a lot of the right things.  Like Gio Gonzalez for example, who has put up a 7.49 K/9 and is only owned in 52% of leagues.  Or how about the 23% owned Travis Wood and his 7.19 K/9 and his 10% owned teammate Homer Bailey, with a 7.17 K/9.

It doesn't matter what your format is, Strikeouts matter in your league.  Anyone of the guys listed above is going to help you increase your strikeout numbers.  On the other end of the spectrum, there are guys that "pitch to contact" or just haven't been pitching well.  Nick Blackburn at 3.52 and John Lannan at 3.73 have put up the lowest K/9 with at least 100 IP.  It should be no surprise that both of these pitchers have high ERA's, WHIPs, and have been disappointing pitchers in 2010.

Written by James Weston for theFantasyFix.com. When James isn't spittin' statistics down on paper he's hacking away at Fantasy apps at http://valuetownfantasy.com  You can also find him on Twitter @TheRealJamesA

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, K/9, Sabermetrics, SABR, Fangraphs, Brandon Morrow, Yovanni Gallardo, Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum, Jhoulys Chacin, Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos, Bud Norris, Manny Parra, Cole Hamels
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