 We are nearly a month into the regular season and we've seen some of the studs struggle and some late round picks flourish. So I figured this was a good time for some fun with small sample sizes in the form of Blind Resumes. But first, some news.
Quick News
In case you missed it, Joe Nathan was replaced Sunday in the Twins' closer role by Matt Capps who was acquired last season from the Nationals. Capps is more than capable as a closer, and last year had a 2.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 16 saves for the Twins. For the year, Capps had 42 total saves for Washington and Minnesota which put him 5th amongst all pitchers in saves.
As far as Nathan goes, the Twins may just be giving him some time to get his confidence back in relief before giving him a chance at closing games again. However, with Nathan at age 36, Minnesota may be giving a long look at the 28-year old Capps to see if he could be their closer for years to come. Capps should be added in all leagues, and Nathan can be dropped except for deep mixed and AL-only leagues where saves are at a premium.
Mitchell Boggs has emerged from the implosion of Ryan Franklin to get the first chance at closing games for the Cardinals and was successful Wednesday night against the Nationals, allowing only one hit in the 9th while striking out one batter. Boggs currently has a 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP and has been the best reliever in the St. Louis bullpen.
I believe Boggs will be the guy until he fails, but the fact is Tony LaRussa is not like any other manager, and his decisions can sometimes be unconventional (to put it nicely). Boggs should still be owned in every league, and Franklin can be dropped in most mixed leagues, where saves are usually plentiful on the waiver wire.
Blind Resumes
Pair 1
Player A - 9.2 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 5 K, 5 Saves, 1 Blown, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Player B - 10.0 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 2.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Player A was drafted as the 5th closer taken on average, and Player B was taken behind names such as Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano, and Ryan Madson. Those two clues should tell you that Player A is Joakim Soria, and Player B is Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates, and Hanrahan as of now has clearly been better.
Both the Pirates and the Royals are in similar situations in that they will not be blowing out many teams, therefore the opportunities for them to win will also likely be save opportunities. Soria will surely lower his ERA and WHIP in his time with the Royals, while Hanrahan may be a crapshoot, having never spent a full season closing in the majors. If you're not totally sold on Hanrahan, now is the time to sell high and get back as much as you can.
Pair 2
Player A - 9.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 3 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Player B - 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Player A is a 23-year old fireballer with a high K/9 ratio. and the other, believe it or not, is Craig Kimbrel. If you guessed Player A was Jordan Walden, you would be correct.
Both young men are sure to be dynasty league studs for years to come, and each give you something different with their strikeouts and saves. Walden is one of the few relievers to still have an ERA of 0 while Kimbrel has a K/9 rate of almost 15. Both guys have a little competition in Fernando Rodney and Jonny Venters respectively, but will hang on to the job as long as they are successful.
Pair 3
Player A - 8.2 IP, 4 H, 8 BB, 7 K, 2 Saves, 1 Blown, 2.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Player B - 6.1 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown, 8.53 ERA, 2.21 WHIP
By the numbers, neither one of these pitchers has been very good for their respective teams, yet only one of them continues in the closer job and that's Player B, John Axford of the Brewers. Player A is none other than Fernando Rodney, whose one blown save cost him his job and allowed young Jordan Walden to take over.
Axford has had the benefit of very little competition, with the only real competition being Kameron Loe, Zach Braddock, and LaTroy Hawkins who comes off the DL Friday. With such lack of competition to his job, Axford should continue in his closer role until he suffers an epic fail or a major injury. Rodney will get an occasional save when Walden is not available, but is not worth rostering except in AL-only leagues.
Pair 4
Player A - 8.1 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.13 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Both of these closers are projected for 45+ saves this year, but Player B was drafted 80 picks after Player A on average. Player A, better known as Neftali Feliz of the Rangers, has had a very good start after a controversial Spring Training, but Player B, Mr. J.J. Putz, is so far the better value based on draft position.
Feliz will be a great guy to have in dynasty leagues for years to come, but Putz is the type of player you get late in drafts that helps you win leagues. If you have a Putz owner willing to give him up, he is worth trading for as he should stay solid all year.
Pair 5
Player A - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 4 Saves, 0 Blown, 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Player B - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 5 Saves, 0 Blown, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
There was quite a gap between these two players at the beginning of the season. In my preseason rankings Player A was #2, while Player B was not even mentioned, yet the two have been very similar these first few weeks. Player A is San Diego's Heath Bell, while Player B is Jose Contreras, who only gained his job through an injury to Brad Lidge.
Contreras's fill-in role was only supposed to be a few weeks until the news that Lidge's injury will keep him out until the All-Star Break, and Contreras has showed he is up for the job. He is the only pitcher with 4+ saves that has not allowed an earned run, a stat that should give him a long leash. Bell's leash is as long as it gets, and the job will be his until he suffers an injury or is traded.
The point in all of this is simple: don't panic if someone is struggling, and don't rush to trade someone unless you truly don't believe. These are perfect examples of small sample sizes that cause fantasy owners to freak out and irrationally drop or add players they shouldn't. Hold strong with the guys that currently have the job, and only drop those that clearly have no value in your style of league.
Blown Save of the Week
Mariano Rivera, the Major League Leader in saves, gets this week's Blown Save Award, mainly because it may be his only one all year. He blew a chance at his 8th save against the Blue Jays, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits to let the Jays tie up the ballgame. Those two earned runs would raise Rivera's ERA from 0.00 to 1.93, which may be a high water mark for him all season. Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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(April 18, 2011 - Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Closer Report, Closer Carousel, Jim Dingeman, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Closers
 This week in The Closer Report, we're going to take a look at some 20-something closers that are well-entrenched in their jobs despite varying degrees of success, and a tag-team effort wins the Blown Save of the Week. But first, some quick news.
Quick News
Huston Street is the most used closer this far into the season with more innings pitched (10.1) and more appearances (9) than any other closer. He has gone 6 for 7 in save opportunities, only failing to close an opportunity last night against the Mets. Matt Lindstrom came in with 1 out after Street struggled and Lindstrom closed the door for his 2nd save of the year. Lindstrom is clearly the next guy in line, and Street owners should be ready to pick him up in case of injury.
Aroldis Chapman was a trendy young pitcher in the preseason as a replacement to closer Francisco Cordero if Cordero were to struggle, but now Chapman is suffering from velocity issues. In his latest outing, which was his 4th in 5 days, his fastball was down to as low as 92 mph, and in a meeting Wednesday with Dr. Timothy Kremchek, he was diagnosed with inflammation of his pitching arm. He'll definitely take a few days off, and if it doesn't get better, he may get put on the 15-day DL to get a lengthy rest.
What can I say about Matt Thornton, Chris Sale, and the rest of that White Sox bullpen? Manager Ozzie Guillen was angry in Wednesday's postgame press conference, stating his team "has no closer," which is just a roundabout way of saying it'll be a committee for a while. I believe Thornton will still get the next save chance despite his performances thus far. The man that maybe should get a chance is Sergio Santos, who has not allowed an earned run in 7.2 innings pitched and has struck out 9 guys in those innings. Until one guy steps up and get the job done, the committee will likely be a mix of Thornton, Sale, Santos, and Jesse Crain. Unless you are desperate, there is no one White Sox closer that needs to be owned until the situation sorts itself out.
Young Guns
After winning the closer job in Atlanta over Jonny Venters, 22-year-old Craig Kimbrel has been nothing but solid in the 9th inning. He has allowed no earned runs on 2 hits in 5.1 innings pitched, while striking out 10 batters and walking just 1. His K/9 rate has been exactly what owners expected from him and he is owned 100% of leagues. If you have a skeptical owner in your league, he is absolutely worth trying to trade for, as there is no sign of him slowing down.
26-year-old Jonathan Broxton struggled last year for the Dodgers in just his 2nd year in the closer role, and even briefly lost the job to Hong-Chih Kuo. This year, however, he is 5 for 5 in save attempts despite giving up at least one walk or one hit in 4 of his 5 appearances. He's always been a high ERA and WHIP guy but in 2009, his best year as a closer, he had 114 strikeouts in just 76 innings pitched, giving him a K/9 of 13.5. If you can take the hit at ERA and WHIP, his strikeouts and wins will be a major asset. If not, this may be a good time to sell high on Broxton.
John Axford has stuggled a bit this year in what was supposed to be his first full year closing for the Brewers, rocking a 8.44 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in just 5.1 innings pitched. However, the 28-year-old has successfully closed his last 3 opportunities and looks to be turning it around. The Brewers bullpen isn't exactly filled with proven guys to take his place in case of failure, so Axford's leash seems to be long. If he were to blow a couple in a row though, they could give a couple save chances to 23-year-old lefty Zach Braddock. Axford owners should keep close attention to the situation there.
Finally, Florida seems pretty happy with what they've got in 27-year-old Leo Nunez as their closer, making him the man for the 3rd year in a row. He has delivered so far in this season with 4 saves and no blown saves, while only giving up 2 earned runs in 7 innings pitched. Nunez was a guy you could have gotten at the end of your draft and could have top 10 closer upside. If he can keep closing games and keep his ERA and WHIP down, he may be one of the top values in every fantasy draft.
Blown Save of the Week
This week's anti-award goes to a pair of Minnesota relievers just last night as both Joe Nathan and Matt Capps blow save opportunities in a 10 inning 4-3 loss to the Rays. Nathan came into the game with a 2 run lead, and gives up 2 earned runs on 2 hits and 1 walk to tie the game. Cesar Ramos started the top of the 10th for the Rays and Kyle Farnsworth returns the favor by giving up an RBI single to Danny Valencia, giving the Twins a 3-2 lead. Matt Capps enters the game, allows Sam Fuld to get on base with 1 out, and giving up a walkoff home run to blow his own save attempt. 2 blown saves in spectactular fashion earn Nathan and Capps the Blown Saves of the Week.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.comFollow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!(September 25, 2010 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Closer Report, Closer Carousel, Jim Dingeman, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Closers
 Sean Burnett We are a full week into the season and most teams are completing their second series. We've seen the first closer change of the year already and seen many blown saves, the most of which have come from the NL Central and the AL West. This week we're going to take a look at some of the committees whose roles have been better defined in this first week and unveil my blown save of the week. But first, lets take a look at some of the news.
Quick News
Jordan Walden takes over as the closer of the Angels after Fernando Rodney blew a save against the Royals Sunday afternoon. In 5 appearances, he has been very good, most notably with 7 strikeouts in just 4.1 innings pitched. Walden is owned in just 52.3% of ESPN leagues so he is likely available in your league and is definitely worth a pickup, especially if you previously owned Rodney. I like Walden to hang on to the job the rest of the year barring any injury, and is worth even more in keeper and dynasty leagues.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel came out Thursday stating Brad Lidge will likely be out until the All-Star break instead of the original target time of 3-6 weeks. Jose Contreras will stay the closer at least until Lidge comes back and is doing well in what action he's seen. In 2 appearances thus far, he's gone 2 innings, struck out 3 batters and not allowed an earned run. If he stays healthy and in the closer role, you can expect 15-20 saves before Lidge returns in July. He should be owned in every league and every format.
Andrew Bailey will get a chance to throw from the mound at some point in the next couple series, but there is no set timetable for his return yet. If he is slow to get back, he may see a second stint on the 15-day DL. In the meantime, the closer role will be split between Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour. Fuentes will likely get the majority after Balfour blew a save in spectacular fashion against Toronto, recording no outs while allowing 2 earned runs on 2 hits.
Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates has been a pleasant surprise and is the only closer in the majors with 4 saves. In 4.1 innings pitched, he has 5 strikeouts to just 1 walk, and has only allowed 1 earned run. The Pirates are not likely to blow out many teams so Hanrahan will probably get the chance to close out every Pirates lead this season. If he can stay healthy, he could be the best buy in your draft or auction with the possibility of 30+ saves.
Closer Committees
Atlanta Braves
Top Dog: Craig Kimbrel - 2 appearances, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 Saves
Second In Line: Jonny Venters - 4 appearances, 4.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 Holds
Kimbrel and Venters began spring training as a perceived 50-50 split at the closer spot, but now that the season has started manager Fredi Gonzalez came out and said he will use Kimbrel as the primary closer ahead of Venters and use Venters more in a setup role. Venters is clearly the second guy in line and has pitched very well in the innings he has gotten. Kimbrel is a high strikeout guy with a career K/9 of 17.87 and is even more valuable in keeper leagues. In leagues
that count holds, Venters is very valuable as he will contribute a high amount of holds as well as an occasional save.
Washington Nationals
Top Dog: Sean Burnett - 4 appearances, 4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 Saves
Second In Line: Drew Storen - 4 appearances, 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Hold, 1 Loss
Hanging Around: Tyler Clippard - 4 appearances, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 Hold, 2 Blown Saves
Sean Burnett currently holds the closer role and will continue to close as long as he is successful. Thus far he has not given up an earned run and is 2 for 2 in save attempts. Burnett has never closed before except in spot duty and has an iffy career WHIP of 1.36. The 28 year old will continue to get chances as long as he is available, and when he is not, those chances will likely go to young fireballer Drew Storen. The Nationals had hoped Storen would be their closer this year after having a good year last year in setup and closing duties. However, Storen struggled in spring training and there have been whispers if he continues to struggle he may be sent down to the minors to get straightened out. Tyler Clippard is the other guy in play in Washington after having a great 2010 pitching in relief, racking up 11 wins and 23 holds in relief. He could easily get chances if something were to happen to Burnett or Storen.
Tampa Bay Rays Top Dog: Jake McGee - 4 appearances, 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Second In Line: Kyle Farnsworth - 2 appearances, 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Hanging Around: Joel Peralta - 3 appearances, 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
This committee is a bit more tricky to figure out considering the Rays are 0-6 and have not encountered a save situation yet this season. The Rays came out and said they want Kyle Farnsworth to be their closer but will start the season with a committee of these 3 guys. I am not buying into the Farnsworth hype this year for the Rays, having seen him groomed to be the Cubs "closer of the future" many years ago and watching him fall on his face. Peralta is a nice pitcher but being 34 years old and having never closed before are not qualities that are in his favor. He may get some chances early in the year but I don't see him keeping the job. I believe at the end of the year Jake McGee will be the best pitcher in that bullpen and is the only one I'd take a flier on. The 24 year old lefty is the one with the future with the Rays and if he can prove himself to be worthy of the job, he could be the Rays closer well into the future.
Blown Save of the Week
The first Blown Save of the Week goes to Fernando Rodney in what maybe his last save opportunity in a while barring a trade. In 0.1 inning pitched, he gave up 2 earned runs due to 3 walks and a hit, which tied up a game which the Royals eventually won in 13 innings. Rodney's blown save is the only one this far in the season to cause a role change, although it likely won't be the last. Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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(February 24, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Closer Report, Closer Carousel, Jim Dingeman, Jordan Walden, Ferndo Rodney, Jose Contreras, Brad Lidge, Craig Kimbrel, Sean Burnett, Joel Hanrahan, Brian Fuentes, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Closers
 The weather is getting nicer outside, and Opening Day came and went with 6 games that each had interesting endings. We had studs like Mariano Rivera and Heath Bell shutting the door on their opponents, and John Axford and Ryan Franklin looking just a bit shaky. Let's take a look at the news we missed in the preseason edition and then dive into Opening Day.
Quick NewsShortly after the preseason edition of this column went live, it was announced that Neftali Feliz will be the closer for the Texas Rangers to begin the season. The certainty that he is the closer for this team moves him into my top five closers, and if you're drafting this weekend, he's absolutely worth taking at the right value. The consensus is that he will be set up by Mark Lowe pitching the 8th and in deep leagues that count holds, he might be worth a look.
The Phillies shut down Brad Lidge with shoulder pain during the final few days of spring training and they expect him to be out 3-6 weeks. Jose Contreras has been named the fill-in over younger Ryan Madson while Lidge is out. If Lidge is on your team, hopefully you have gone out and gotten Contreras to fill that hole while Lidge is on the DL.
Previously there was just speculation about Andrew Bailey and Brian Wilson but now it is confirmed that both California closers will start this season on the 15-day DL. Wilson is eligible to come of the DL April 5th and will likely take over as soon as he gets back to full health; until then Sergio Romo will likely fill in at the closer role. Bailey will also be available on the April 5th but the Athletics may take a little extra time bringing back their young closer, especially with an experienced veteran like Brian Fuentes in the bullpen able to close games. If you need quick saves for a week I like Romo more than Fuentes while their counterparts are out.
Finally, Frank Francisco will start the season on the DL for the Blue Jays and Jon Rauch will be the closer to start the year. Rauch is the best option in the bullpen while Francisco is gone and could regain the job if Francisco struggles in his comeback.
Opening Day GamesIn the first game of the day, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander both went six innings and neither got a decision, leaving the ballgame to their respective bullpens. Joba Chamberlain pitched a clean top of the 7th, and Phil Coke could not do the same in the bottom of the inning, giving the win to Chamberlain. The Yankees used Rafael Soriano in the eighth and earned a hold and will be a great guy in holds leagues. Mariano Rivera came in and shut the door like he does so well and got his first save of the season. None of these sentences are particularly surprising and this will likely be consistent for the Yankees barring any injuries.
Craig Kimbrel got the first shot in the committee in Atlanta and finished the job in a 2-0 win over the Nationals, striking out two in the process. Jonny Venters pitched the eighth and earned a hold, keeping the Nationals hitless. If you were to draft this weekend and you wanted a Braves closer, I'm leaning harder toward Kimbrel being the better guy for the year but I still believe its a committee. If the Braves go a couple weeks and Kimbrel pitches every time he's available, then the job is his and Venters owners can go ahead and release him.
The first blown save of the year belongs to John Axford and his awful mustache of the Brewers as the Reds scored four runs in bottom of the ninth to beat the Brewers 7-6. Takashi Saito pitched an ugly but scoreless eighth inning and would likely get the first save chance in the bullpen if Axford were to struggle. I believe Axford has a bit of leash but as a young guy, if he were to blow three in a row, maybe Saito gets the next chance.
Fernando Rodney closed a two run game against the Royals in the afternoon game, despite giving up a hit and a walk. I have a hard time believing in Rodney coming into the year and the Angels are high on Jordan Walden but want to ease him into a setup role behind Rodney. I believe Walden will settle into the eighth inning role and possibly a chance at saves when Rodney is not available.
We got bonus baseball and a second blown save in the win by the Padres over the Cardinals, 5-3. The Padres were helped by a blown save by Ryan Franklin and a poorly timed error by Ryan Theriot. I'm not worried about Franklin for now but Jason Motte is the guy in the shadows in case Franklin really struggles. Heath Bell closed the door in the 11th for his first save of the year.
And finally, as much as I was hoping to get a look at Sergio Romo, the Dodgers beat the Giants 2-1 and Jonathan Broxton got the ugly save. Broxton gave up a home run to Pat Burrell but gave up no other hits and walked none. Broxton looked slimmed down in appearance in comparison to last year which may help his stamina. Hong-Chih Kuo got a hold and may be the king of the holds this year just like he was last year.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Closer Report, Jim Dingeman, Opening Day, Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, John Axford, Jonathan Broxton, Fernando Rodney, Craig Kimbrel, Heath Bell, Fernando Rodney, Andrew Bailey, Brad Lidge
 "Don't pay for saves."
I'm sure that's a mantra that most, if not all, fantasy baseball players have heard when it comes to drafting closers. The standard logic behind that belief is solid. The early rounds are always used for building the foundation of your offense and choosing stud starting pitchers to help you in wins and strikeouts. Closers are good for bolstering ERA and WHIP in small doses as well as being your only source of saves. So many saves come into the league onto the waiver wire due to injuries and failed attempts, its usually not smart taking closers in the first 8-9 rounds in drafts.
The problem with that logic is that it doesn't take into account closers that are available a round or two after average. If Mariano Rivera, who typically goes in the late 8th round, is available into the 9th and 10th rounds, he is much more valuable than normal and is worth taking because of the added value. This concept applies even better with auction drafts where closers are one of the last positions drafted, leaving less money available to spend on them. If Jonathan Papelbon is typically worth $10, he is much more valuable if he can be acquired for $7 late in the auction. The extra $3 is money that can be used to pick up a player like Craig Kimbrel or Brad Lidge. The money you save by pouncing on undervalued closers has a compounding effect on the rest of your team, allowing you to pick up better players than normal later in the draft.
Let's go ahead and move on to my preseason rankings. For the preseason edition, I've included Average Draft Position (ADP) and Average Auction Value (AAV) next to each player. These values come from ESPN.com's Live Draft Results page from Friday, March 25.Don't forget to check out The Fantasy Fix 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit!
Rock Solid1) Mariano Rivera (76.0, $12.0)
2) Heath Bell (77.0, $11.6)
3) Joakim Soria (85.5, $10.8)
4) Brian Wilson (65.7, $13.9)
Above is the consensus top four on most websites (they are also my top four for the year, although I've got them in a slightly different order). I put Rivera as the no. 1 closer starting the year as a result of his amazing consistency over the years and the 1.80 ERA/0.83 WHIP combo he put up throughout last year. Bell's ADP and AAV are basically identical to Rivera's and he could easily be considered no. 1A to Rivera's no. 1. Bell's 1.20 WHIP last year led me to give the very slight edge to Rivera. As good of a closer Soria is, I worry about the Royal's offense and their ability to get leads for him to close out. The lesser number of opportunities put him at no. 3. Wilson would be ahead of all of them for me, if not for the news that he may miss time at the beginning of the year with a mild oblique strain. Sergio Romo will likely be the guy if Wilson does miss time, and may be worth a late round pick if you
choose to take Wilson.
5) Carlos Marmol (94.2, $9.8)
6) Jonathan Papelbon (98.8, $9.4)
7) Francisco Rodriguez (111.1, $8.0)
All three of these guys are well established as closers and have plenty of leash in case of early struggles by them. They also put up sub-1.20 WHIP numbers last year and are projected for sub-3.25 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP this year. I put Marmol at the top of this tier because of his crazy high K/9 rate the last couple years. Papelbon then goes ahead of Rodriguez because of the quality of defense behind Papelbon and the advantage of having the Red Sox offense giving him more opportunities.
A Little Shaky
8) Joe Nathan (120.3, $5.5)
9) Neftali Feliz (94.9, $10.8)
10) J.J. Putz (137.7, $6.1)
11) Huston Street (147.8, $5.0)
12) Chris Perez (151.0, $4.9)
As we go further down this list, the rankings are more about values and less about who is the better pitcher, leading me to place Joe Nathan at the top of this group. Nathan is coming off an injury that had him sit out the vast majority of last year, leaving his previous owners gunshy on drafting him again this year. Going in the 13th round or for about $5, he's the best value of all the closers in this group and could easily be a top five closer this year. I moved Neftali Feliz down to nine after all the talk of him entering the starting rotation making him a high risk pitcher, either as a starter or a closer. I will be staying away from him until his role is figured out. Putz is returning to the closer role in his first year with the Diamondbacks, a role that he was successful in with Seattle in 2006 and 2007. Those two years he had 76 saves in 150 innings pitched with 186 strikeouts, a 1.80 ERA, and 0.80 WHIP. If he's even close to those numbers this year, he will clearly be a top ten closer and be a very nice pickup in the 14th round or for $6. Huston Street has a long leash in Colorado and will get you a good number of saves as well as decent ERA and WHIP
numbers. His ERA was a little high last year at 3.61, but if he can come in anywhere below there, he won't hurt your team ERA. Chris Perez gave up just two earned runs in 32 innings pitched over the final three months of the season and has the full year to close. It's hard to imagine him keeping up that torrid pace, but anything close will still be a very successful year.
13) Jonathan Broxton (120.3, $7.2)
14) John Axford (151.6, $5.0)
15) Andrew Bailey (157.9, $5.7)
16) Ryan Franklin (174.6, $3.0)
Each player in this group has a specific concern that could hinder his success. Broxton last year had high ERA and WHIP numbers (4.04/1.48) and a noticeable decline in strikeouts and saves. If you can get him at $5 or less late in a draft, go ahead and take him; otherwise, he's a stay away for me. This will be John Axford's first full year of closing for the Brewers and his nerves could get the best of him. His 2.48 ERA last year will almost surely rise in full time work at the closer spot. Andrew Bailey's spring has been plagued with news of an oblique injury and may miss opening day. He's not a high strikeout guy, but had great ERA and WHIP numbers last year. If he misses time, Brian Fuentes will likely be the guy and a good source of early cheap saves. Ryan Franklin is the king of the ugly save but he gets the job done. The defense behind him does a lot of the work, but he does a good job keeping hitters off-balance.
17) Matt Thornton (170.9, $3.4)
18) Jose Valverde (156.6, $4.1)
19) Brad Lidge (170.7, $3.5)
Matt Thornton has been named the closer to start the year for the White Sox over Chris Sale. The 34-year-old southpaw has posted sub-2.75 ERAs and sub-1.10 WHIPs the last three years and has great upside this year in his first year as a closer. Jose Valverde had 26 saves in just 29 save opportunities and has shown the skill set to close 40+ games in a season. If the Tigers offense can give him more opportunities, his saves should surely rise from the mid-20s the last two years to the mid-30s or even better. Two years ago, Brad Lidge had an atrocious 7.21 ERA and blew 11 saves, but managed to bounce back last year with a better ERA and WHIP but less saves. The saves should go up quite a bit with the Phillies' stud rotation and hopefully the
ERA and WHIP will stay low.
In Case of Emergency
20) Drew Storen (184.8, $3.3)
21) Francisco Cordero (153.8, $3.9)
22) Leo Nunez (207.4, $2.0)
23) Brandon Lyon (212.0, $1.6)
24) Kevin Gregg (215.2, $1.6)
Drew Storen has the most upside of anyone on this list, but the Nationals say they will go with closer-by-committee to start the year and Storen has not thrown well in Spring Training. Francisco Cordero has Aroldis Chapman waiting in case he were to have a bad stretch and his high ERA and WHIP numbers don't help his cause. Leo Nunez is the closer in Florida due to total lack of opposition in the bullpen; he's fine for a couple bucks at the end of the draft. Brandon Lyon has yet to prove he can close on a consistant basis and put up good numbers. Kevin Gregg saved 37 games last year despite a high 1.39 WHIP and is a career 4.03 ERA pitcher. All of these guys are okay for a couple bucks, but don't be afraid to dump them when someone better emerges elsewhere.
Other Situations To Watch
- Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
- Jake McGee/Kyle Farnsworth
- Brandon League/David Aardsma
- Fernando Rodney/Jordan Walden
- Joel Hanrahan/Evan Meek
- Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch(February 22, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)Written by Jim Dingeman exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Auction Values, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Closers, Jim Dingeman, Mariano Rivera, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Neftali Feliz, Carlos Marmol, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez
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