2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Asdrubal Cabrera (credits below) Which 5 Shortstop should you stay away from in 2012? I have said it time and time again; the most scarce fantasy baseball position is shortstop. With only 5, maybe 6, top tier players at the position, the drop off between that 6th and 7th guy is so much that it could cost your team the season. Being on top of the best available players as you creep through the draft is imperative to a winning season. The wrong shortstop could literally cripple your offensive output and put you into a major bind. The following group of players isn’t necessarily players I wouldn’t draft, but players I wouldn’t take as my starting option. Top 5 Shortstop to stay away from in 2012: For the first player on my do not draft list, 2011 was incredibly generous to him. So generous, that he SHATTERED career numbers. Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, CLE) posted 25 homers, nearly twice as many as he had in his career up to that point. He also drove in 92, scored 87, and stole 17 bases - all career high numbers. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s break out year reminds me way too much of another middle infielder that had similar career lows only to break out in one insane offensive year, Aaron Hill (2B, ARI). After Hill’s career year (2009) he began to slip back to his old self, and I am afraid that Cabrera will do the same thing. Keep Cabrera off your rosters, unless you need to fill a middle infield or utility spot...he isn’t worth your starting SS spot. As of late, Rafael Furcal (SS, STL) has come into some major issues with staying healthy. Furcal has completed 100 games just once over the last three seasons, and with the emergence of Dee Gordon (SS, LA) Furcal was shipped out to St. Louis to play with the now Pujols-less Cardinals. Furcal is 34 this year, and with age comes slower speed, quicker break downs, and decrease in ability. He shouldn’t be considered for anyone’s opening day fantasy rosters. Don't forget to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. It's our best yet, with ranks, auction values, and insights from some of the best names in the game!  The Shortstop merry-go-round continues in Boston as they ship off once touted prospect Jed Lowrie (SS, HOU) to Houston in a deal that netted the Sox former hyped Yankee prospect Mark Melancon (RP, BOS). In four MLB seasons however Lowrie was never able to truly get things going. Lowrie only has 808 career at bats at the Major league level, but with only 19 home runs, 117 RBI and a .252 career average. He will certainly be in a bit of a friendlier hitting park but not by much. Don’t draft Lowrie unless desperate, as he will only disappoint. Our next participant will definitely help you in the steals category, but will do absolutely nothing else for your fantasy squad. Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) was thought to be the next Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) – a combination of average, minimal pop and 20+ stolen bases. Well, he got the steals down pat, but he hasn’t been able to put together anything else. In nearly 1200 Major League at bats Escobar has a .252 average and a .294 on base percentage, only 9 homers and 98 runs batted in and with minimal offense behind him runs scored will be limited as well. Our final shortstop to stay away from comes from the confines of San Diego. Jason Bartlett (SS, SD) has had a pretty nice career for himself, despite being bounced around to now three different teams. Last year’s .245 average may be a bit of an abnormality however, I just can’t take that chance. Bartlett has decent speed and has eclipsed the 20 SB mark on several occasions, and normally his average is much better than a year ago. But he has absolutely no power, which only gets hurt more by the very spacious ball park he calls home, and with a pretty anemic offense either in front of him or behind him, don’t expect him to drive in many, or score many on his own. If Bartlett can get his average back to respectability he is worth a late round UTIL pick up, but nothing more than that. The shortstop position is growing with the youngsters Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX), Dee Gordon (SS, LA) and Starlin Castro (SS, CHC) among others, which is great for you as you prepare for your drafts. But it isn’t there yet, and you need to be cautious when drafting. Jump quick and early and get yourself a stud at the position, or you could be looking from the outside in come playoff time. (September 16, 2011 - Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images North America) Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for The Fantasy Fix. You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix Add Comment  Troy Tulowitzski (credits below) Trying to sift through the shortstop position is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. If you thought the second base position was slim pickings then you haven’t seen anything yet. At shortstop there may be about seven players that you should sincerely go out and target... you can get away with guys like Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) and Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI) but it wouldn’t be ideal. Getting a solid shortstop can be key for any team. It is imperative that you grab yourself a strong middle infield, but if you have to live with a lesser talented second basemen it won’t destroy you. However, getting a bad shortstop could cripple your season, as the production out of the position is extremely short. Top 5 Shortstops to draft in 2012: Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) is not just the best shortstop in the league but arguably can be one of the best players in all of baseball. I wouldn’t necessarily draft him first overall, but I can see where a case can be made that he deserves the spot. In the last two seasons Tulo has been an All Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner at shortstop and has been in the top 10 of MVP voting in each of the last three seasons. Tulo has averaged nearly 30 home runs, and 100 RBI over the last 3 seasons and has compiled a .293 career batting average. To go along with his amazing offensive prowess is his respectable – not great, but decent – speed numbers. Troy, has had double-digit stolen bases in 2 of the last three seasons and missed that mark by 1 last year. When Jose Reyes (SS, MIA) is healthy he might possibly be one of the most deadly players in Major League Baseball. Jose has at least 30 stolen bases in the six seasons where he played at least 125 games, and in the other three seasons with a combined 158 games played, he has more than 40 stolen bases. But that’s not the most impressive part of the Dominican born All-Star, as he also has great ability to put a charge in the ball, and hit for average which is not something often seen from a speedster of Jose’ caliber. Jose has 4 seasons of double-digit home runs, and a career average of .292, including a .337 season in 2011. And for those of you in more of a sabrmetrics league that takes into account slugging percentage his 99 career triples will certainly help in that department. Unlike Reyes, this next speedster shortstop doesn’t hit for much power, but his speed allows him to steal bases at a premium and score runs with the best. Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX) is only 23, and in three seasons in the majors has 102 career stolen bases. A concern for now is his high caught stealing rate, however he seems to be getting better as he gets older. Along with his rising stolen base numbers is his rising batting average. Andrus, increased his average by .014 points in 2011 to .279, and with that came more doubles and a rising slugging percentage. Andrus is still very young, and getting better with every game played. For years, Hanley Ramirez (SS, MIA) was known as the premier player at the shortstop position then came 2011. Hanley’s season was cut short due to injury and for most fantasy owners it couldn’t have come later. Before going down with the injury Hanley hit .243 with 10 homers, and only 45 runs batted in, numbers that were significantly lower than his career averages. What keeps Hanley in the eyes of almost every fantasy owner was his bounce back July before going down for the season. Ramirez hit .293 with a .391 OBP 5 of his 10 homers and 21 of his 45 RBIs all came in this month. What will eventually give him some added value will be his position eligibility, with Reyes now in Miami as Hanley’s teammate a new position is in the horizon. Ramirez is only 28, he will be around for a while and if he can get back to his All-Star status he will definitely be one of the top players to grab in 2012. Much like Andrus, this next young shortstop has pretty decent speed. Starlin Castro (SS, CHI) completed his second season in the majors with 22 stolen bases, 10 home runs, 66 runs batted in, and an average of .307 all of which were greater than in 2010. Castro is only 22 this year and with those kinds of numbers he is only going to get better. The old regime is out in the north side of Chicago so this is now Castro’s team for years to come. Notable SS you can get away with: Derek Jeter, and Jimmy Rollins are both getting older, and much slower, but they have the veteran status that the others on this list don’t yet have. Rollins was able to blast 16 big flies, score 87 runs and steal 30 bases, which are great numbers if he can keep it up. Jeter got better as the season went along, probably because he reached 3,000 hits for his career and so the pressure was off for the most part. Jeter compiled 16 stolen bases in 2011 the 16th straight season with double-digit swipes, and in the second half of the year he hit .327 to finish with a .297 average. JJ Hardy (SS, BAL) showed that the power we saw earlier in his career is back with 30 dingers in 2011; so if you need a power bat at the position and the others are off the board jump at Hardy. He isn’t going to get you any stolen bases, and his average and on base percentages are sub-par to say the least, but he will hit for power drive in a decent amount of runs, and score some as well. Before Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) hit the scene in the mid 90s, it was very rare to see power hitters at the shortstop position. But the fly ball era (aka steroid era) came and with it so did the big bats as shortstop. But with as many shortstops that can hit for great power come at least 3 others who don’t have any. Speed is at an exceptional rate from this position and can really grow your fantasy teams numbers if drafted properly. Written by Justin Mandaro, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow him on twitter @PeckinTheFix As always you can ask me any draft, line up, or trade questions on twitter any time of the day. (September 2, 2011 - Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images North America)  Chase Utley (credits below) These 5 second baseman should be forgotten about in 2012... As stated last week, the position of second base is one of the scarcest in the entire game. It isn’t easy to come by once you get past the big named players, and when trying to put together your team it often times becomes a very difficult position to fill. It is very important to grab one of the better players at the position, in order to have some substance to your line up. The following five players however are those who you do not want in your line up regardless of how thin the position gets further in the draft. Top 5 Second Baseman to stay away from: For years Chase Utley (2B, PHI) was the must have second baseman. Utley put up power numbers never seen from a player at the position, but the last two years haven’t been so kind. If you look back though you can see a trend over the last four seasons on the down turn. In 2008, Utley hit 33 home runs, drove in 104, scored 113 and hit for .292. Since 2008, Utley has dropped in each of these categories in every year. The more startling of Utley’s numbers is his inability to play games. In 2010, Utley played in only 115 games, and then in 2011 only 103, those numbers are less than enticing. Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) was a first half monster on his way to one of his best seasons as a pro. Weeks started the 2011 season off with a bang hitting 17 of his 20 homers prior to the all-star break, but only drove in 39 runs, which may have been more of a result of Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) and Prince Fielder (1B, DET) knocking everyone in, but it’s still less than stellar. Weeks no longer has Fielder as he is now in Detroit, and with the vagueness of Braun’s steroid test it’s not going to be easy for Weeks to see the same pitches he may have seen with those two in the line up. Weeks isn’t a player who gets on base much, and won’t steal many bases, and you should be hesitant on this 8 year veteran. Out of the minor leagues, I absolutely would’ve told you to grab Gordon Beckham (2B, CWS). Beckham was drafted 8th overall by the White Sox in the 2008 amateur draft, and immediately made a decent impact in the minors. Beckham was never a power hitter, but man could he hit for average. In 233 minor league at bats Beckham collected 75 hits good for an average over .320, but before he could finish his 2009 stint in the minors he was called up for a major chunk of the season. That season Gordon hit .270 a respectable number for a rookie while blasting 14 home runs. Since then Beckham hasn’t hit better than .252 and only .230 in 2011. Beckham won’t be known for his power with only 9 and 10 homers in his last two seasons respectively, but his runs batted in and runs scored are also sub par giving me the stop sign when looking to acquire the Chicago south sider. Brian Roberts (2B, BAL) should have been dropped from fantasy rosters two seasons ago, but it seems as if some people are continuing to have hope for the 34-year-old second baseman. For years Roberts was known as the speed second baseman, and while Utley was putting up mashing power numbers, Roberts was swiping bags at ease and thus had an extremely high value in fantasy leagues. However, his last two seasons have not only been injury plagued, but production plagued as well. There are still a ton of injury concerns for Roberts, as well as some lingering steroid allegations that may pull him down further and with only 98 games played in his last two seasons combined Roberts is no longer the base stealing threat that he once was. That alone should cause you to pump the brakes on this aging ball player. I think we are too far along into this next player’s career to really be waiting for potential production. In Aaron Hill’s (2B, ARI) first four seasons he hit more homers in one year (17) than he did in the three other years combined. Then came 2009, and a 36 homer, 108 RBI, 103 runs scored season which caught every fantasy player off guard. Hill was able to complete 2010 in similar style with 26 home runs, but only hit .205 drove in a measly 68 runs and only scored 70, not something you want to see from a second baseman. 2011 was a shock to everyone when after two straight seasons of at least 25 home runs he could only knock 8 balls over the wall. The runs scored and runs batted in totals were very similar to 2010, and while his average was better .246 on the year it was a tale of two tapes. Hill started the year in Toronto and hit .225, at the deadline he was traded to the Diamondbacks and first year head coach Kirk Gibson seemed to be able to change him around to the tune of a .315 average. He also had an OBP of .386 while in Arizona nearly 40 points higher than any other season he has had in the big leagues which may have been a result of not knowing the pitchers so he waited for his pitch to come. Hill’s only bright spot was his 21 stolen bases in 2011, a number only two fewer than his career total up to that point. Position scarcity is extremely important in fantasy sports, and drafting the right player can make or break your season. Because of how thin the league is at the position reaching and grabbing you one of the top flight second baseman is almost imperative. If you can’t, pray that you are able to get great value from the other positions on your roster. Written by Justin Mandaro, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow him on twitter @PeckinTheFix As always you can ask me any draft, line up, or trade questions on twitter any time of the day. (October 4, 2011 - Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America)  Ian Kinsler (Credits Below) Should there be a high emphasis on position scarcity? There is absolutely nothing more important then paying attention to depth in fantasy sports. Getting the right players for the right positions at the right time is key to success in fantasy sports, specifically in baseball. One of the most depthless positions over time has been the second basemen. For years, the number of elite second baseman has been hard to come by, causing problems for many players. This year is slightly different, new players entering the league, and some older vets continuing on their prowess, the second base position is getting to be a bit deeper. Although not nearly as deep as 1B or OF it is passing both the Catcher and Shortstop position in depth, which will allow you to grab other positions first, but tread carefully. Top 5 Second Baseman to Draft in 2012 It was hard to choose the order of these top 5. Each of these players has the ability to do amazing things at the position. In the end, it comes down speed. A lot of players can put up power from different positions, but not a lot of players have the ability to steal bases and that’s why Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) is atop my 2B rankings. For Kinsler his .255 average wasn’t new territory but it wasn’t his norm either as his career average is .020 points higher, what boosts Kinsler’s value here was the rest of his numbers. For the second time in his career Kinsler surpassed 30 stolen bases and 30 Home runs (both times he did it in the same year). For the first time in his career Kinsler scored more than 102 runs, and he had his second highest runs batted in total of his career. What was really nice to see was his increase in walks with 89 nearly 30 more than his previous career high. A power, and speed combination can often times be hard to come by but Kinsler has it and if he can continue to get on base with walks his value can only grow. Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) had a bit of a career year in 2011 and a lot of that had to do with Jacoby Ellsbury’s (OF, BOS) and Adrian Gonzalez’ (1B, BOS) amazing seasons. The former AL MVP hit .307 only the third time in his career over .300, and had career numbers in runs batted in (91), stolen bases (26) and home runs (21). Pedroia also scored 102 times in 2011, the third time he was able to hit the century mark in his career. Most Yankee fans may hate me for placing him above Robinson Cano (2B, NYY) (as a Yankee fan myself, I kind of hate myself just for writing this) but his ability to steal, while also going deep catapults Dustin slightly ahead of Robinson. Ellsbury and Gonzalez are still there and as will Pedroia’s production. Robinson Cano has just about every offensive category that any fantasy baseball owner would want except for stolen bases which is what distinguishes him from the two above. Cano has always had a knack for putting the ball in play, just not necessarily getting on base, which hurts his value a bit more than his speed does. Just imagine if Cano got on base more, his 100+ runs could easily break 150 with the offense that hits behind him in that line up. Despite not being known for his speed, Cano had a career year in stolen bases with 8, which helps but not enough to put him at the top of this list. Dan Uggla (2B, ATL) had one of the most unimpressive first halves of baseball you could imagine. The one constant however was his ability to put the ball over the wall. Uggla hit a shocking .185 in the first half of the 2011 season but was able to hit 15 big flies, drive in 34 runs and score another 43 in 340 at bats. The second half was a completely different story. Uggla put up higher numbers in runs, home runs, rbi’s, and was able to decrease his strike out totals, all in fewer at bats (260). The most shocking of his second half numbers was the near .300 average Uggla mashed for showing that his first half was more of an aberration than an every year thing. 2011 marked the 5th straight year of at least 31 home runs, 80 RBI’s, and 80 Runs scored. Uggla seems to be in prime position to do it again in 2012. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) had one of his best seasons in 2011. Posting a .300 avg for the first time in his career, Phillips also mashed 18 HRs, the 5th time he has had at least that many in a season. Phillips was also able to drive in 82 runs and score another 94 on his own while posting an .810 OPS second highest of his career. A bit more troubling has been the reduction of stolen bases over the last two seasons, over that span Phillips swiped 30 bags, his career high in a season is 32. Brandon has the wheels and the pop to be known as one of the top second basemen in fantasy baseball and should make strong considerations for your team on draft day. Notable Second Baseman to consider: Other second basemen I would consider drafting would include, Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE), Howie Kendrick (2B, ANA) and even Eduardo Nunez (2B, NYY). Kipnis got the call to the show mid way through the year, and showed that with an entire season he could be problem. With 5 stolen bases, and 7 homers in 36 games played in 2011, he could seriously be considered for a 20/20 candidate in 2012. Nunez stole 22 bags last season in just 112 games played, most of which were spent pinch running. The Yankees infielders are getting older and with that come injuries, with injuries comes more opportunity for Nunez to play. Nunez can see 30+ thefts in 2012 with an increased role on the team. Kendrick had career highs in runs scored, home runs, and stolen bases. He hit a respectable .285, the 5th time in his career to do that. But, he struck out 119 times nearly 30 times more than his previous high, which is a concern. Albert Pujols (1B, ANA) will absolutely help Kendrick see better pitches which will help him put up better numbers resulting in a pretty decent second base draft pick. Written by Justin Mandaro, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow him on twitter @PeckinTheFix Look out for TheFantasyFix radio show coming February 2012, and for the launch of my YouTube channel (more details to come) Interested in participating in a reader league versus some of the experts of TheFantasyFix.com shoot me a Twitter message for more details. As always you can ask me any draft, line up, or trade questions on twitter any time of the day. (October 26, 20112011-10-26 16:00:00 - Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America)  Ryan Howard (credits below) Knowing the players NOT to draft can be just as important as knowing the ones TO draft. There are two main components to everyone’s success when it comes to playing fantasy sports. The first and probably most important is the draft. Knowing the right players to draft, and the right players to stay away from could make or break your ENTIRE season; the second is the waiver wire. Just because you had a great or not so great draft doesn’t mean that it’s all over for you. You can’t win on draft day and you can’t lose either. If you put the right amount of time and research into the players throughout the year you can easily make up for a subpar draft. One way to be able to decrease your chances of having to hit the waiver wire often is to know what you are doing on draft day. Creating the perfect line up for your specific league on draft day can really get you headed in the right direction. A couple of strategies I like to use when drafting my teams are based on scoring. If your league is a rotisserie league where you get points based on the ranking your team is in a specific category (10 points for the most HR, 1 point for the least amount of steals etc.) you can draft players to dominate a certain grouping of categories. Case in point if your league has a 5 category set up of HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP for hitters you can draft high run, high steal, high OBP players, let them create a substantial lead in the rankings then look to trade for more power oriented players. You may lose a spot or two in steals, runs scored and OBP. However, come the end of the season you’ll gain points in HR and RBI, which will even itself out. In head to head leagues, a lot of players like the super star / super upside model. They will draft 4 or 5 stud players, then a bunch of role players, then a few upside guys who may or may not break out. This may work if you draft the right set of guys, but some times it isn’t that easy. Build a team of depth, get a lot of very similar players on your roster. Get a lot of 20 HR runs, as opposed to some 30 HR guys and some 8 HR guys in the end the consistency of your team will show and it will get you major points. Sticking with the tradition of this article, here are the top 5 players you may want to skip when looking at the 1B position. Top 5 Players NOT to Draft in 2012: Michael Morse (1B, WSH) exploded onto the scene in 2011 belting 31 home runs 95 runs batted in and an on base percentage above .360, only the second season in his major league career reaching double-digit HR figures and the first time in his career driving in more than 50 runs. Granted, the sample sizes were extremely small for the year’s prior but Morse had been in the majors since 2005 and for some reason he couldn’t keep himself on the field, and that was with the Mariners who haven’t had a talented 1B for nearly a decade. Morse reminds me a lot of Jorge Cantu who broke out in 2005 with 28 home runs and 117 runs batted in and then again hit 29 homers in 2008. Problem was each year following his production dropped by nearly 50%. Cantu has since played for 3 teams in two seasons and hasn’t been able to find a permanent home. Morse is one of those guys you should shy away from unless you can steal him really late in the draft. The speculation that the Nationals might sign Prince Fielder (1B, FA) certainly doesn’t bode well for Morse either. There is nothing worse then knowing that you failed to extend your teams season with 2 outs in the 9th inning of game 5 in the National League Divisional Series, or is there? Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) found out the hard way unfortunately with a torn Achilles on the final play of the NLDS in 2011 that will end up costing him 5 to 6 months just to recover. The good they came away with from the 1 – 0 loss and the injury is that the season is over, surgery was done and you know that you can get better. I am not totally convinced though, the injury was to his left foot (the push off foot for a big power hitting lefty like Howard) was ripped completely and needed repairs. Howard is turning 33 this year which can often times be the beginning of the down turn for players, but that’s not his biggest worry. Howard is 6’4” tall and 240 pounds, uses all of his lower body to hit home runs and pushes off with his left foot with massive explosion, his body frame and size will not make it easy for him to continue on his torrid home run pace. Reports are floating that he will be good to go by opening day, which is promising, but please be hesitant. Pre-All Star Break Adam Lind (1B, TOR) had what looked to be an absolutely amazing year. I remember a span when he couldn’t stop hitting home runs, of course he was sitting on my bench when he did it and almost simultaneously with me starting him he began slumping. Before the mid summer classic Lind had knocked 16 different pitches out of the park was hitting at a clip of .300 and drove in 52 runs. The second half story was shocking to say the least. Lind finished the season only hitting 10 more homers, driving in only 35 more runs and had an OBP under .234 a number more than 100 points lower than his first half number. Most people were sucked in with his first half numbers after the completely dismal season he had in 2010, I hope you won’t get sucked in again. Aubrey Huff (1B, SF) another player to slump big time from one year to the next, saw a major drop in every offensive statistical category, including HR, 2B, R, and RBI. He also dropped nearly 50 points in average and 80 points in his on base percentage. His home stadium isn’t that friendly to left-handed hitters not named Barry Bonds and it caused him to slack a lot in 2011. You may look at his career numbers and say well he has been able to have one good, one bad over the last 6 seasons but when looking at his home and away splits in 2010 he played significantly better away than at home, and then in 2011 the same thing the only problem being he didn’t play well on the road either. If he continues this trend he is nothing more than a stow away player someone not worth drafting unless absolutely desperate. It is known everywhere that the Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most hitter heavy parks in all of baseball. Most players who have no business mashing the ball have the ability to destroy it far, and deep. Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) was thought to be that guy, he just hasn’t been. Moreland got his time to show his stuff to MLB pitchers in 2010 where he was able to knock 9 big flys in just 145 At Bats over a 47 game span. He got his big break in 2011 and was given the opportunity to start for the majority of the year. In 2011, Moreland increased his at bats by more than 300 but the rest of the numbers didn’t reflect it. Moreland hit for a better average (.004 better), but his on base percentage dropped by nearly .045 points. Obviously given the extra time his HR, Runs scored, and runs batted in were on the up, but by only 7, 40, and 26 from the previous season respectively. Numbers you wouldn’t guess to come from a guy who had 320 more at bats than he did the previous year. Staying away from the right guys can keep you out of the cellar as much as getting the right guys can get you to the top. Baseball is known to be a marathon so take your time and make the right moves and you’ll be great. Try to sprint your way through and you’ll make mistakes and that will never be good in the long run. Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro. As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day. Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march. (October 6, 2011 - Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America)  Miguel Cabrera (credits below) The beginning of the 2012 off-season rankings report for First baseman With the NFL post-season kicking off this past weekend, and just six measly weeks left until pitchers and catchers report, it is only logical that we start getting into some good ole fantasy baseball talk for 2012. For those of you starting out for the first time, fantasy baseball is a much bigger monster than that of football. For starters, the regular season is considerably longer, opening day for most teams will begin the first week of April, and the end of the season can go until the middle of October, a total of 7 months, longest of any of the major sports in existence. What makes it tougher is that, not only is it 7 months long, but it is also a daily game, at least basketball gives you a couple of days between games to recuperate. So where do we begin? Well you have to get your league set up. There are multiple ways to play this game, from how many categories do you want contributed to your score, to whether you want it to be head to head like football or rotisserie where you get points for how you rank among the league for each given statistic. Next you have to figure out if you want the advantage of daily line up changes, or if you want to lock the line ups Monday morning and make it a weekly league like football. While the latter might be more fun it is certainly a disadvantage for when you lose a player on Monday and can’t replacement him for another 7 days as opposed to football where you only lose that players production for one game and can switch them out the next. And finally, you have to figure out how long you want your season to go, and whether or not you want full MLB rosters or one specific league. It may seem like a lot to think about, but in the end these are essential aspects of your game that you’ll need to figure out. Once you have all that down it’s now time to begin ranking your players. But for those of you who don’t want to take the time to do that, you have found the right place. From this point forward you can find my bi-weekly columns of the top 5 players to draft at each given position, and the top 5 players that may be on the decline in 2012. Because, I was a first basemen for 18 years of my life that’s where we will begin, and with the amount of new faces at the position and some old faces in new places at the position this shall be a great place to start. Top 5 First baseman to draft in 2012: Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) has been one of the most consistent 1B in baseball since he broke into the game back in 2003. Miguel has taken residency in two of the biggest parks in baseball during his tenure in the league, so his numbers are slightly mind-boggling. However, his production has been nothing but stellar including his last four seasons in Detroit where he has been able to blast an average of 40 HR and 115 RBI per year. What makes him even better, is his ability to get on base. Just last season Cabrera was second in all of baseball in walks with 108 good for an On Base Percentage (OBP) of .448 nearly 30 points higher than the second highest OBP for first baseman. Because most leagues include Hits (H), Runs (R), Runs Batted In (RBI), Home Run (HR), Stolen Base (SB), and OBP as the six offensive categories Cabrera reaches the top of all first baseman. He isn’t going to steal, but when you have a guy who is top 5 at his position in the other 5 categories it’s very difficult to pass on him come draft day. Adrian Gonzalez (1B, BOS) was an absolute MONSTER in 2011. His numbers were slightly inflated due to him playing in a much smaller park from 2010 to 2011 (making the switch from San Diego to Boston), so it may be a little difficult to predict similar numbers out of this lefty first baseman. The fact of the matter is, he plays in Fenway, as a lefty with that short porch in right field he should do just fine. In 2011, Gonzalez recorded the most hits of any first baseman in baseball, was 2nd in Runs batted in (RBI) and Runs Scored, and top 5 in OBP. Like most 1B, Gonzalez isn’t going to blaze the base paths, but he will certainly garner you excellent production for the other five categories. Joey Votto (1B, CIN) had what most people would say to be a “down” year in 2011. He stroked just under 30 HR, but drove in 103 runs, scored another 106 on his own and walked nearly 20 times more than he did in 2010. However, his average, homers (by 8), RBI (by 10), and Runs Scored (by 5) were all down in 2011 causing him to have a “down” year. While the numbers suggest him to have slumped his overall production was good to be a top 5 first baseman last season. Votto plays in one of the most hitter friendly parks and that isn’t changing any time soon. The Reds young players around him are only getting better with Jay Bruce, and others, which will eventually allow Votto to see better pitches as teams will be forced to get him out more frequently, this is when Votto will be able to use his amazing eye to select the right pitches for him to take advantage of. Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) used to be known for his amazing ability to put the ball into the stands. From 2004 – 2006 Konerko averaged 38 home runs per season, however besides a .313 average in 2006 just couldn’t get his average to be consistent. The following three seasons weren’t so kind to Konerko, never scored more than 75 runs, never more than 31 HR, couldn’t drive in more than 90 runs, and never hit higher than .277 average. So why would he be one of the top 5 players to draft? Well, since then, Konerko is back to his HR mashing ways averaging 35 HR per season, driving in more than 100 runs per year, but where the real jump goes to is his average has jumped back up and over the .300 mark to a two year average of .306 per year. Konerko isn’t really walking enough for a first baseman but his OBP of .388 and .393 over the last two years is nice. If the rest of the White Sox line up can drive him in he could be even more valuable at the first base position. Just because of his name I think you have to talk about Albert Pujols (1B, ANA). However, I am a bit hesitant to draft Pujols in 2012. Pujols has never been hampered by his ball park as he has done what he has in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball, so knowing that Anaheim’s isn’t that much better isn’t a true worry for me. What has me hesitant is his jump from the National League to the American League. He plays in a league that holds the best starting pitchers in the baseball like Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA), Justin Verlander (SP, DET), CC Sabathia (SP, NYY), Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and others around the league. The argument could be made that he also faced big time starting pitchers in the National League, with Roy Halladay (SP, PHI), Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) and others, but overall the amount of talent can’t be compared to that of the American League. He doesn’t know these pitchers, for the most part he has never faced them, or if he has it’s only been for a few at bats, and the pitchers in the American League will use this to their advantage. Notable 1B To Draft in 2012 Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) and Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) were the heart of the rookie 1B class of 2011. Averaging 20 homers between the two of them, they were both able to drive in nearly 80 runs, steal multiple bases and batted over .280 higher than star 1B like Ryan Howard (1B, PHI), Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) and Adam Lind (1B, TOR). Prince Fielder (1B, FA) still doesn’t have a team, news around the league state that the Nationals are going hard for him, which may hurt Mike Morse (1B, WSH) value. But will also help Fielders. For now, we have to wait to see what team he lands on, but keep an eye on this situation because it could determine whether he is a draftable 1B or not. The first base position is known for its power output. 12 first basemen in 2011 hit more than 25 homers and 13 first basemen drove in more than 80 runs. If you are one of the lucky ones to go out and grab the guy who not only hits for power but also hits for average then you’re in a perfect position. Because other positions like Catcher, Short Stop, and some Out Fielders don’t put up the power numbers that a first basemen can it is nearly imperative to get one of these top sluggers on draft day. Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro. As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day. Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march. (October 2, 2011 - Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America) | 
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