2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Last time around I discussed how much FAAB I was going to use to bid on phenom outfielder Bryce Harper, preaching how typically spending a large chunk on one player is not the most efficient way to use your FAAB budget (I know that is redundant but it sounds better). 

But, spending $65 on a player like Bryce Harper this early in the season may really pay off – yes that was the top bid in our league – but only time will tell. 

Some owners take the strategy in an “only” league to hold onto their FAAB to spend it on a big name that will jump from one league to the other at the deadline.  The most recent notable name to do so, that went for big money in our league, was Matt Holliday in 2010.  By doing this you essentially are regulating yourself to picking up very low end guys to replace your injured players, or passing on guys that could contribute close to 400 at-bats to your team versus the 200 or so at-bats a deadline bat would add to your lineup.

Recently Allen Craig came off of the disabled list, making him eligible to be bid on in our league.  I saw this as a great opportunity to upgrade the weaknesses at my corner infield spot, and even though he does not have guaranteed at-bats when Lance Berkman becomes healthy, if he is producing at the plate he will easily get 350-plus at-bats the rest of the way.  I confidently bid $27 on him, but lost out to another league member in a similar situation - who also is a Cardinal fan – who bid $33.  If we used a soft bid system I probably would have gone much higher, and I would have been willing to pay $34 if I knew that was the magic number, but I thought $27 would be enough.

Bobby Abreu became eligible this past weekend after the trade from the Angels to the Dodgers, and was able to be bid on Sunday night.  With Willie Bloomquist occupying an outfield slot I saw this as an opportunity again to upgrade.
Considering Abreu can swing the bat from the left side, and Juan Rivera not being the most consistently healthy right handed bat, I figured he would get enough at-bats to make him part of the roster.  I put the modest bid of $5 on him and won.  I am sure if Rivera hit the DL before bidding happened he would have gone for more – and I would have bid more as well, but Monday morning I got a text from a league member asking why I overpaid for Abreu. 

Well, it is simple, I’d rather have 350 at-bats from him instead of 350 at-bats from Bloomquist here on out, so I bid accordingly, not being afraid of not having enough FAAB in the middle of July for the sexy name that makes the jump to the National League.

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Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield
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The Franchise has run into the first real dilemma of the season.   Aubrey Huff’s trip to the disabled list has left my team without a first base eligible player, and since first base is a desolate hole this year in the NL my best waiver wire options are Lyle Overbay, Travis Ishikawa, and one of the “other”  Nationals prospects that was called up this weekend, Tyler Moore.

It is obvious that none of these guys are long term options, so they are not getting more than a buck a piece of my FAAB budget.  I like Overbay the best because the struggling Paul Goldschmidt could find himself back in triple-A if he doesn’t turn things around – or they will at least protect him against some better pitching giving Overbay some at-bats. 

Tyler Moore probably has the most upside out of the trio, but with Adam LaRoche being red hot right now he won’t be finding at-bats at first base, and some kid named Bryce Harper made a pretty strong debut, so it is doubtful he steals at-bats from him.  Best case scenario for Moore to get at-bats is when the Nats face left handed pitching, forcing Davey Johnson to sit Rick Ankiel, move Jayson Werth or Harper to center, in turn freeing up a corner spot for him.  Next week the Nationals will see two lefties in Joe Saunders and Cole Hamels, so adding in possible pinch-hit opportunities, Moore’s at-bat total probably has a ceiling of 10.

I am working on a trade to acquire a first base eligible player while giving up an arm and/or outfielder, but again since there aren’t many quality first base options the asking price in trade talks is still high from league members.

Now to the Bryce Harper conundrum.  Our league does not allow you to draft players if they are not on the major league roster when the auction happens.  Bryce was of course sent to the minor league camp before the auction, so now that he has been called up he is eligible to be bid on.  Here is a quick history of the highest priced free agents since the FAAB system was established by our league. 

2011 – Edwin Jackson $23 when traded from the AL
2010 – Stephen Strasburg $57 when called up
2009 – Matt Holliday $80 when traded from the AL
2008 – CC Sabathia and Rich Harden both $59 when traded from the AL

I am a firm believer in spending your FAAB early and often, and in large amounts if necessary, when a player will fill a need.  That being said, Harper will help my offense, and I see myself as a player in the $40 range, but don’t know if I can go much higher than that given my injury risks.  I also don’t think $40 will get it done, and he should go for at least $65 - so it looks like I will be waiting for Anthony Rizzo to get the call to spend my FAAB on that big call-up.

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Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield
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Henry Rodriguez
Since our league has been together for quite a while, most of the owners know which players each other like, and what strategies each of us try to employ.  And after every draft, some of us mill around and talk about how awesome our team is and how we put it together exactly how we wanted to.  Some of us are telling the truth, and others of course are not - and really how can you blame the owners that aren’t telling the truth.

This year, just to keep us all a little more honest in our post draft conversations, I asked a few owners to participate in a so-called “exercise” with me.  Since we drafted in the evening the plan was to write our draft strategies/target players down before the draft, seal them in an envelope, and then after the draft visit a local watering hole for a beverage and the opening of envelopes.  It was a lot of fun actually, because not only did you get an idea of who had successfully followed their strategies, but also just how much thought and prep went into each owner’s strategy.

If you are playing in a similar league this may be something that you may want to do, just to increase camaraderie among league members.  

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As far as the progress of the team after the first full week of baseball – it has bounced all over the place.  My team is currently sitting in the middle of that pack with 58.5 points - bottom half of most offensive categories and my pitching is sitting in the top three of all categories.  I did put a low bid on Henry Rodriguez last week just because a month or two of saves from a part time closer can make a difference, but he went for much more FAAB than what I was willing to pay.

This week I may look to upgrade David Ross and Jason Bartlett.  Ross was the best back-up catcher left at the end of the draft and I put a dollar on him.  At-bats , which equals offensive opportunities, is what is most important out of those cheap slots, and right now Steve Clevenger (backup catcher for the Cubs) is getting quite a few pinch hit opportunities late in games since he is the team’s best left handed threat off the bench.  I may try to swap out Ross for him.

Bartlett is now in my utility spot, and the reason I liked him for a dollar was because of his stolen base potential – which I still think is there because the Padres like to run.  The only two names that intrigue me sitting on the waiver wire are Willie Bloomquist and Roger Bernadina.  Bloomquist got off to a hot start last year, and is doing something similar so far this year.  I have no problem taking advantage of that knowing that I will need to cut bait when production starts to fall off.  Bernadina is a more intriguing long term option considering the recent news of Michael Morse’s injury.  Both are out producing Bartlett at the time being and it is doubtful Bartlett will be scooped up by another owner if I would cut him.

The main thing for all fantasy owners in the early goings, don’t over react to the point total, player production or where you fall in the rankings.  Sample sizes are way too small and most players are either over or under performing where they will be at in October.  Watch as much baseball as possible and enjoy it now that games are counting.
Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield, and follow us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
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Madison Bumgarner
My last article highlighted the offense of my NL-Only team, and this article is devoted to my pitching staff. 

Like my hitting, I had a strategy and a budget for my pitching staff heading into the auction.  We roster five starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and two pitchers for a total of 10 arms, so one more pitcher than a normal NFBC roster with a few more restrictions.  Having kept Madison Bumgarner and Brandon Beachy, I felt my staff was strong, but lacked an ace, but I was okay with that.

My plan was to draft two more upper tier, but not elite, starting pitchers for a total of $40, spend $25 dollars on two closers – a secure 9th inning guy and a suspect one – and have $6 to spend on the final four pitching spots, but you know what they say about best laid plans…

Earlier in the draft Roy Halladay went for $32 and Cliff Lee went for $28.  At this time I was thinking this is great, I should be able to get two of the next tier guys for about $20 a piece just as I wanted but that ended up not happening.  Pitchers I was targeting in that tier went for only three or four dollars less than Halladay – and some went for more.  I ended up with Matt Garza at $26, and he was the only pitcher from that tier that I successfully brought aboard on draft night – here are the rest.
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I am happy with Garza, but I would have been much happier with Cliff Lee at $28.  My strategy got off track when I picked up Shaun Marcum for $9.  Bidding stalled at $6, and I remember thinking that I can’t let him go that cheap.  Seven turned into nine, hoping the other guy would go ten, but he didn’t.  

Closer costs were ridiculous this year compared to past years.  There were only two “lock” closers that went for less than $20 – Carlos Marmol at $15 and Huston Street at $17, both are injury risks in my opinion.  It all started with a $24 Jonathan Papelbon and then everyone suddenly wanted to pay for saves.  I am happy with my two guys, Javy Guerra and Sean Marshall, and truly think that Marshall could end up a top three closer in the National League at the end of 2012.  I will be aggressive on the waiver wire to add saves because Guerra will definitely not be a top three closer at season’s end.

The rest of my guys I am perfectly fine with considering I didn’t have to have a load of strikeouts from them because my three best starting pitchers should all contribute 180-plus a piece, and they all came at a minimal investment.  I mentioned R.A. Dickey in a previous article as a guy I’d go an extra buck on, and I did.  Andrew Cashner is an injured Huston Street away from being a closer, and should add his fair share of strikeouts.  Juan Nicasio may be my “Brandon Beachy” of 2012 – cheap, tremendous upside, and knows how to strike guys out.  Chris Volstad rounds out the staff, and I also mentioned him in my extra buck article. 

Our league’s first transaction period is this Sunday and I don’t plan on making any moves, pending injuries, at this time.  But don’t worry, I won’t leave you in the dark for too long.  Some league mates and I took part in a little exercise after the draft that I think will turn into a tradition for us, and next time I will shed some light on that, and another tradition, that you and your league mates may want to consider in the future.

Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.


Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield, and follow us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
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Starlin Castro (credits below)
The last 10 days was the busiest stretch of my “fantasy season”, drafting several different leagues throughout the week and finishing up Saturday night with my NL-Only auction.  It was my last draft of 2012 and what a great way to finish things before the real games start.

I went into the auction with a fairly simple strategy, while setting salary limits so that I could make sure I didn’t neglect anything.

The simple strategy was not to spend more than $16 between my two catchers, first base, third base and corner infielder.  All of those positions were thinned out by top tier players being kept and I did not want to overpay for who was left.  There really wasn’t a lot of a performance basement between what ended up being a $20 first baseman and a $3 first baseman, which confirmed my pre-draft thoughts.

I strategized that the depth of elite players at the middle infield and outfield spots would keep the prices reasonable, so that is where I wanted to spend a bulk of my money.  Early in the draft prices there were very reasonable, first time around the table Brandon Phillips went for $23 – I wish I would have gone a buck more – and Justin Upton went for $40.  I have never rostered two $40 players before, but Upton in my mind was clearly the best player available in the draft and I was very surprised and happy when the bidding stalled after I said forty.

Below is the rest of my offense:
I like the upside potential in Mesoraco, Huff, Alvarez , and Pacheco.  All four cost me a combined $9, and the return could easily be close to $20 – at the same time Pacheco and Alvarez could in triple-A  by June, with Mesoraco and Huff on the bench .  I overpaid for Castro, but entering the draft I knew I would overpay for at least one player (it happens) but I am glad I did it on a player that could earn $32 with a high batting average, developing power, and he is a Cub.  Pierre, an end game buck guy, and Neil Walker at $12 I think will end up being my best values when it is all said and done.  The only guy I really don’t like is Bogusevic, but he was the very last name thrown and only outfielder left with fairly guaranteed at-bats.

I really like my core, and with my cheaper guys being very cheap I will have no problem moving onto someone else that is performing better.  I project myself as a top four finisher in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases which is a great start considering how everything came together.  But of course being projected in the top 4 in those categories means nothing after draft day, what matters is where everyone ranks in October.

Later in the week check out what my pitching staff looks like, and if you have some questions about the format search for the past articles on my NL-Only team, “The Franchise”.

Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield, and follow us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

(March 27, 2012 - Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America) 

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
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Mike Minor
The aspect I think is great about the auction draft is being able to own exactly who you want, as long as you are willing to pay the price.  Essentially you can pencil in at least four guys onto your team’s roster before you even throw out the first player for bid – of course buying four $40-plus players could cripple the rest of your auction, but it is possible to do.

When approaching an auction draft you should have the players you are interested in owning “listed” in one of three categories; Targets, Willing-To-Go-An-Extra-Buck, and End Gamers.  

Targets would be those guys that you are going to get as long as the price is not too outrageous.  Defining outrageous is of course up to you, but I have found that you are going to probably have to overpay for a player or two throughout the auction, you might as well make it one that you like and want to own.  

End Gamers are those $1-$3 players that everyone throws around to just fill rosters.  These guys should either have high upside, a secure role on their team, or at least a definitive basement so you know what you are getting.  A great end-gamer if you are looking for speed this year in an NL-Only is Tony Campana.  He won’t hurt you too much in the average department because his at-bats will be limited, but any time the Cubs need a pinch runner he will be the first off the bench, giving him an advantage in the runs and stolen base categories.  Freddy Galvis of the Phillies would not be a solid end gamer.  He has never played well above double-A, he is very young, and his role will change throughout the year depending on the health of Chase Utley and the performance of Ty Wigginton.

 The “Willing-To-Go-An-Extra-Buck” category are the guys that can make or break your team.  Now you may be okay with going an extra buck, or two, or three depending what your situation when these players are bid on.  Essentially going the extra buck on the right guys can win you your league, and here are some highlights from my Willing-To-Go-An-Extra-Buck list and why:


Batters


Alex Presley (OF, PIT) - A clear path to playing time with plus speed and did not appear overmatched in his 2011 cup of coffee.


Lucas Duda (1B/OF, NYM) – Good contact skills, nice pop and owns 1B eligibility - a position with limited draft day options.


Zack Cozart (SS, CIN) – He won’t light the world on fire, but there is more upside with him than other shortstops in the same price range.


Jordan Schafer (OF, HOU) – He is not the “sexy” pick for fantasy outfielder in Houston - has blazing speed that will come with the price of a low batting average.


Marco Scutaro (2B/SS, COL) – Could be argued as an empty batting average, but he will score plenty of runs; and what is wrong with owning 600 at-bats of a .290-plus batting average.

Pitchers

Mike Minor (SP, ATL) – Will be the work horse of the Braves rotation with a strong K/9.

R.A. Dickey (SP, NYM) – Dismissed by most because he throws a knuckleball, but has done it well two years in a row and can probably do it again this year.


Vance Worley (SP, PHI) – Surprised everyone last year, added a Roy Halladay coached change-up to his arsenal this season and has had a great spring.

Chris Volstad (SP, CHC) – Probably more of an end gamer option, but look for Volstad to put it all together this year, extending his flashes of good into periods of good.

Homer Bailey (SP, CIN) – I have no real reason for Bailey except that I can’t quite Homer Bailey.

Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield, and follow us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

(September 27, 2011 - Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America)

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.

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Stephen Strasburg (credits below)
The Nationals do not necessarily have a “sleeper” of a fantasy rotation, but it definitely can be sneaky good by the time the calendar hits October.  Who will occupy the fifth rotation spot is still being determined, but one-through-four in the rotation all have value when drafted properly.

Starting at the top, Stephen Strasburg will have the opportunity this year to pitch in the major leagues in the month of April.  After missing most of the 2011 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the San Diego State standout (say that five times fast) has looked very sharp in his first few spring training outings.  The one aspect of owning Strasburg that should worry fantasy owners is his innings limit.  If you have a reliable starter like Strasburg , then lose him for the stretch run while in a close race, it will be impossible to replace his production without giving up a great amount of talent in a trade.  The best possible strategy for a Strasburg owner could perhaps be trading him at the All-Star Break after banking a majority of his season in your stat column.

The most costly acquisition for the Nationals this offseason was lefty Gio Gonzalez.  Coming from the spacious park in Oakland, in an overall weak offensive AL West, it will be interesting how the southpaw performs in his first year in the senior circuit.  The 26 year-old starter is coming off of back-to-back 200-plus inning seasons, with an ERA in the low 3.00’s, and a K/9 rate average around 8.00.  The two concerns with Gio repeating those numbers are his high strand rates (78.1% in 2010 and 77.1% in 2011) as well as his walk rate that has been 4.0 or better his entire career.  If the strand rate normalizes while the walk rate doesn’t improve, his low 3.00 ERA could end up closer to 4.00 by season’s end.

Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson, the next two pitchers in the Nats rotation, are both great fantasy options if appropriate performance expectations are in place. 

Zimmermann has yet to eclipse 161 innings in a season, and it should not be too much of a concern because he is 25 years-old, but it is information to consider.  Also, in his return last year his K/9 sat at 6.92, well below the 9.07 mark he enjoyed in almost 100 pre-surgery innings in 2009.  Still there is a lot of upside, and with a healthy arm he could rebound to his very nice 2009 numbers.

Edwin Jackson has pitched for 7 major league teams before he throws his first official pitch for the Washington Nationals, but he is still only 28 years-old, and he didn’t start pitching until after the Dodgers drafted him in the sixth round of the 2001 draft.  Over the last three seasons he has been a workhorse, throwing 214, 209.1, and 199.2 innings from 2009-2011 respectively.  Jackson is renowned for high pitch counts, high walk rates, with an ERA in the 4.00 range.  Because of his age and minimal years of pitching experience, there is potential for improvement in the right situation. Even if there is no improvement, you can count on a lot of innings with a little risk to your ERA but a substantial negative effect to most fantasy staff’s WHIP.

The competition for the fifth spot in the rotation is currently between John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, and Chien-Ming Wang.  It is rumored that the Nationals are pursuing trade options for one of these pitchers, and it appears Lannan is currently drawing the most interest from teams.  Lannan is a lesser version of Edwin Jackson, without the upside, strikeout rate, or dependability of close to 200 innings.  Ross Detwiler has the most upside out of the three pitchers, posting a respectable ERA and WHIP over 60-plus innings last season and has been impressive so far this spring, striking out nine in his first 7.2 innings of work, while allowing only one home run.  The last option, once hyped Yankees signing, is Chein-Ming Wang.  Wang pitched 62.1 innings in 2011 after missing time recovering from shoulder surgery.  When he was healthy, his value was limited because of his low strike out rate, but was an effective ground ball pitcher.  Whichever pitcher is named the fifth starter should be looked at as an NL-Only end of the staff filler until their in-season performance warrants otherwise.


Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield

(September 27, 2011 - Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America)

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
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When looking at the average draft positions (ADP) at Mock Draft Central, a time consuming hobby of mine during the month of March, it is obvious that the National League is full of quality starting pitchers.  Four of the top five starting pitchers drafted, and 14 of the top 25 starting pitchers drafted, all hurl in the senior circuit.  I have heard quite a few people allude that since there is so much depth in starting pitching that you can definitely invest less in that area and still do well.  Perhaps, but “Doing well” is all relative to the other teams in the league.

In the past three years, the league as a whole has averaged spending $600 of their $2,700 draft day salary on starting pitchers - $600 exactly in 2011.  There are of course keeper prices factored into that $600 that change from year to year, but the philosophy of most of the owners seems to say pretty similar.  Out of the $600 spent last season $294 was spent on the “top ten” guys.  With the surplus of quality pitching this season I can see the auction swing one of two ways:  Top guys like Halladay, Lee, Lincecum and Hamels salaries will be depressed because owners will wait for “cheaper” options like Latos, Greinke, Gallardo and Cain later in the draft, which in turn will drive second-tier salaries closer to the elite top tier pitcher salaries, or the elite guys fetch salaries in the upper $30 range actually making the next tier of pitchers cheaper.

The first few starting pitching options that are bid on are really going to dictate my approach to buying starting pitching at the auction.  Entering the year already owning a $12 Madison Bumgarner and a $1 Brandon Beachy as keepers, I feel that one more elite or two more second-tier guys are really going to secure my rotation until the end game.  If I can pick up a Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels for a price close to $30, sign me up.  If they are pushing $35-plus then that means there will be value still in the next level of pitchers.

The reason I don’t buy into the argument of waiting on starting pitching in an NL-Only this year is not because there isn’t the depth, it is because there is such a drop off in production and/or reliability between the tiers.  Once you get past the first five there is an obvious drop in production and reliability.  I dare you to find one owner that would rather have Yovani Gallardo instead of Cole Hamels outside of the Milwaukee metro area.  Same is true when you get into the late teen picks.  Matt Garza currently has an ADP of the 16th starting pitcher taken in NL-only leagues, following him is Gio Gonzalez, Josh Johnson and Adam Wainwright.  All three of those guys are very capable of putting up the same, if not better numbers than Garza, but there is a clear line between a “basement value” in Garza and those three considering health and history.

Someone who waits and picks up a whole staff of pitchers from the Bud Norris, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Jonathan Niese tier of pitchers (all guys I really like this year by the way), could catch lightning in a bottle with all of them and have very good numbers, but they won’t compare to someone that makes a slightly higher, yet reasonable, investment like myself at the auction.

25 JJ, 27 Billingsly, 38 Lee, 36 Kershaw, 28 cain, 28 Greinke, 43 Halladay, 40 Lincecum, Hamels 29, hanson 27

Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
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Roy Halladay (credits below)
It is no secret the three headed monster of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels that top the Phillies rotation are a fantasy force in any format outside of the American League only format.  All three are capable of being the anchor of a fantasy rotation, but if you want any of them to do so an early round investment will need to be made.

Current average draft positions for each at Mock Draft Central are Halladay at 15, Lee at 21, and Hamels at 30.  Out of the three, the best value may end up being Cliff Lee, but you certainly cannot go wrong with any of them in your fantasy rotation.

Once you get past the sure things a combination of Vance Worley, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick will fill the final two rotation spots throughout the season.

The biggest surprise of the 2011 season for the Phillies was the emergence of Vance Worley.  Being bumped into the rotation because of injuries, he made 21 starts before finishing the season in the bullpen.  In his 125 innings as a starter he recorded a 3.02 ERA while striking out 111 batters and walking only 41.  This offseason he added a change-up to his pitch arsenal, which will give batters one more thing to think about when facing him this season.  Worley is definitely worth a look to fill out a mixed league rotation, and should be considered a solid number 3 in any NL-only league rotation.

Blanton’s health seems to be the only question keeping him from securing a rotation, considering the elbow problems that plagued him in 2011 as well as lingering injury issues since the 2009 season.  Even though he was pitching through injury last season, his peripherals were stronger than in previous seasons, posting a 7.62 K/9 and a 1.96 BB/9.  His 5.01 ERA was driven more by a .362 BABIP against and a 13.9% HR/FB rate.  His 3.63 FIP may be more representative of what to expect out of a healthy Blanton in 2012.

Philadelphia’s insurance policy, when it comes to the rotation, is Kyle Kendrick.  He spent 2011 between the bullpen and rotation, and probably will do the same in 2012.  He has value in NL-Only and deeper mixed league formats when he is in the rotation, but his mediocre strikeout numbers (3.69 K/9 as a reliever and 4.99 K/9 as a starter) make him just worth monitoring when pitching out of the pen.

Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield

(February 29, 2012 - Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)

Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
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Ryan Braun (credits below)
The news of Ryan Braun’s suspension being negated was huge for me considering that I was a Braun owner last year at the price of $44.  The initial sticker shock make some think (even a few fellow league members) that I am crazy for considering him as a keeper, but there are many factors to consider when evaluating any elite bat in the National League this year, first of which is the context of the league and knowing the other owners.

Historically in this league there is at least one, if not two, $50-plus players and a good handful of $40-plus players by the time the auction concludes.  In fact, last year the top eleven salaries were as follows:  Albert Pujols $56, Hanley Ramirez $52, Prince Fielder $45, Ryan Braun $44, Joey Votto $44, Matt Holliday $43, Ryan Howard $43, Roy Halladay $43, Ryan Zimmerman $41, Troy Tulowitzki $40, and Tim Lincecum $40.  Obviously some of those players went too high, but in an auction it comes down to supply-and-demand and the remaining budgets the bidding teams have.

Out of those 11 players I estimate that only five at best would get a $40 bid this year, (Braun, Votto, Holliday (St. Louis Midwest bias), Halladay, and Tulowitzki) and only three of which (Braun, Votto, and Tulowitzki) I would be willing to go that high on.  The departure of Pujols and Fielder, along with the varying concerns surrounding the other players, really depletes the number of National League upper tier bats, but because of “tradition” or stupidity there will still be a fair share of $40-plus players.

The second factor is the players that will be available at auction when considering the other owner’s keepers.  By talking to a few owners I know Votto, Matt Kemp ($36), Michael Bourn ($19), Jay Bruce ($18), Michael Morse ($3), and Jose Reyes ($28) are all currently being strongly considered as keepers.  That is a pretty good chunk of offensive talent that has just been eliminated from the player pool – that as I already mentioned is depleted.

If I want to own Braun, or any of the other remaining highly revered bat, I am going to have to overpay, and probably would at a greater “difference” in value than what I am currently paying for Braun.  Essentially I’d rather pay $44 for Braun, than end up paying $40-plus dollars for David Wright, which I envision the future David Wright owner doing.

Next time my pitching keepers will be the center of attention, and how I am navigating through the value of starting pitching, compared to the high supply of pitching options this season in the National League.


Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012.

Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield

(February 25, 2012 - Photo by Rich Pilling/Getty Images North America)


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