2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
In our newest installment of the Draft Day Debate, we look at two of the top first basemen, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. 

Votto is coming off an MVP year while Gonzalez seems set for his best year yet in the Red Sox offensive powerhouse. While undoubtedly fantasy owners will choose Albert Pujols first off the board and first for 1B, who will be the better pick as the second 1B to go? You decide...
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The Case for Joey Votto by Tyler Becker

If you haven’t participated in your draft already, you will eventually notice the incredible depth at first base this year. There are about seven first basemen ranked in the top 20 overall players, so taking one of these guys means spending your first or second round pick.

With this investment, you better be getting what you paid for in fantasy baseball terms. That means runs, power, average, and maybe even some steals thrown in. One of this season’s first basemen, who will give you each of the previously mentioned, is Joey Votto, Cincinnati’s 27-year old star first basemen.

Votto had a breakout year in 2010, hitting .324 with 37 home runs, knocking in 113, scoring 106 runs, and swiping 16 bags. He was also one of only nine players in all of baseball to score 100 runs and record 100 RBI last year.

In addition to his stellar 2010 season, Votto has had a steady progression in almost every statistic since 2008. Below are Votto’s lines from his 2008, 2009, and 2010 season.

2008 (151 GP): 69 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB, .297 AVG, .874 OPS

2009 (131 GP): 82 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG, .981 OPS

2010 (150 GP): 106 R, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 16 SB, .324 AVG, 1.024 OPS

Votto will certainly not continue at this pace, but he can definitely stay around his 2010 numbers. Most of the Reds’ last year supporting cast will be in the lineup in 2011, and with the emergence of Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce as offensive threats in the outfield, Votto could potentially see an increase in runs and RBI this year.

To go along with his steadiness, Votto is a reliable fantasy stud year-round. His pre and post All-Star break numbers are chillingly consistent as you can see below:

Career Pre-All Star: 819 AB, 131 R, 46 HR, 142 RBI, 13 SB, .310 AVG, .942 OPS

Career Post-All Star: 807 AB, 137 R, 44 HR, 156 RBI, 15 SB, .318 AVG, .974 OPS

Votto exemplifies the top tier first baseman that is ideal for your fantasy lineup. Especially with the extra speed you get with him, Votto gives you consistency, confidence, and elite status with a first or second round selection.

Looking at Adrian Gonzalez, his move to Boston and Fenway Park is a great change. Basically, just getting out Petco Park is a plus for him. However, I like Votto significantly more than Adrian this year. Gonzalez is going within the first two rounds of drafts this year, but is less of an all-around player than Votto. Adrian has only reached the .300 AVG mark once in his career, and the .400 OBP mark once as well (Votto’s OBP in 2009 and 2010 were .414 and .424 respectively).

Gonzalez has also had minor shoulder discomfort coming off surgery. It is unlikely to impact him during the regular season, but a late start to spring training could mean a couple of more weeks than expected to settle into Boston’s lineup and get comfortable with his new surroundings and transition to the American league.

Votto has proved himself as a top three first baseman, and a sure thing top-10 player overall. Even if you see no increase in production from Votto this year, he is undoubtedly capable of putting up his 2010 numbers once again.

I’m on “Team Votto” in 2011.

(February 23, 2010 - Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images North America)
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The Case for Adrian Gonzalez by Nick Polak

The Red Sox are a team that every opposing pitcher is going to look at and fear this year, there’s simply no denying it (besides those select Yankee fans that still think their lineup is better).

The fact is, the Red Sox will be putting out a lineup that will presumably look something like the following…

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury
LF- Carl Crawford
2B- Dustin Pedroia
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
3B- Kevin Youkilis
DH- David Ortiz
RF- J.D. Drew
SS- Marco Scutaro
C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (One of my favorite names in sports)

This lineup just SCREAMS playoff (and possibly further) potential. The Sox undoubtedly made the biggest waves this offseason when they brought in Crawford and Gonzalez to anchor this frighteningly powerful lineup. In doing so, they not only made themselves a far better team, but they helped to put Adrian Gonzalez near the top of the list of “America’s Next Top First Basemen” (ABC, NBC, and FOX are all currently considering it for primetime).

This season will be entering uncharted territory for A-Gon, as he has never had any offensive support more notable than Kevin Kouzmanoff in his career (debatably). Not to mention that he played half of his games at the famously, spacious Petco Park.

Yet despite all of these excuses for Gonzalez to be nothing more than an average baseball player, he has consistently been a monster. He’s been averaging around 35 home runs, 105 RBI and around a .285 average over the past four seasons.

Consider those things when you now factor in the idea that he will be playing in a hitter-friendly park (especially for lefties), along with the fact that several elite offensive players from all different angles will now surround him. Not to mention, he’s only 28 years old.

Even with A-Gon nursing an injury this spring, he’s going to be fine for opening day, and don’t be surprised to see a stat line that reads something like .290 AVG, with 35+ HR and 110+ RBI.

Now, don’t get me wrong, Joey Votto is another potent offensive talent that is not to be taken lightly. You really can’t go wrong with drafting either of these phenomenal first basemen, so don’t be too distraught if you miss out on A-Gon, because taking Votto is a wonderful consolation prize.

However, if presented with the choice, fantasy owners should be heading down the A-Gon path this season. His new upside potential is simply too massive to ignore.

(February 19, 2011 - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)

Comment and cast your vote on which player will be better this year, or who won the Gonzalez vs. Votto debate. One person will be randomly selected to win a free Fantasy Fix Draft Guide (valued at $0.99).

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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, Draft Day Debate, Tyler Becker, Nick Polak, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox
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There won't be many drafts where Roy Halladay is not be the first overall starting pitcher chosen. We know that he can blank any opponent and even on his off-days, still has a shot for a win backed by an offensive Philadelphia roster.

The real question though is, who do you take as the 2nd starting pitcher off the board? 

Although there are many excellent choices, only two young guns really deserve consideration… Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez. 

This Draft Day Debate just may not have a clear cut answer. You decide.

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The Case for Tim Lincecum by Tyler Becker

Ranked #2 Starting Pitcher in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
  
Do you look for 210+ innings of work from a starting pitcher? How about more than 15 wins in a season? What does a reliable ERA mean to you? And wouldn’t you like to have more than 230 strikeouts from the ace of your staff?

Well, Tim Lincecum fantasy owners can always say yes to these questions. Not just for last season, but for each of his three full-length years in the pros.

Lincecum has been an elite starter for the past three years. He consistently provides solid and above-average fantasy production, as he is entering his prime years. Even with Lincecum’s “down” year last season (212.1 IP, 16-10, 231 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), he was baseball’s third best in strikeouts, and finished two spots outside the top 20 fantasy starters in standard leagues.

Looking ahead in 2011, I expect Lincecum to get back to his top-10 fantasy pitcher numbers. Especially with a strong finish to the 2010 season, he is in line to have a nice start for next year. In September, he went 5-1 in six starts, striking out 52 in 41.1 innings, while posting a 1.94 ERA and only allowing eight walks. He just seemed to turn on the gas and regain form at the end. His turnaround was pretty amazing after going 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA in August.

With San Francisco’s effective hitting providing support for Lincecum, his record will not be a concern for fantasy owners, making him an even better option in leagues with wins and losses as categories. What’s even more appealing is his consistent strikeout production.

Despite being edged by one strike out last year, Lincecum is practically a sure thing for 230-260 K’s. Hernandez, on the other hand, has been a little sporadic with his punch-outs. In his first full three seasons, King Felix failed to reach 200 K’s.

Also, given Seattle’s lackluster offense, wins will once again come sparingly for Hernandez this season. Not to mention Felix’s desire to be the most successful pitcher in baseball, there could be heated pressure on all of Seattle this year (the best means you gotta win some games… not just have a stellar ERA).

If you take either of these guys this year, you’re getting an elite pitcher no matter what. It just comes down to security when you spend an early pick on one of them. I’d like to know I am getting a high strikeout, high win, low ERA guy with such an early pick. And I don’t think Hernandez can satisfy all three of those requirements, as long as he’s playing in that rainy, coffee infested city they call Seattle.

(February 23, 2009 - Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America)
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The Case for Felix Hernandez by Nick Polak

Ranked #3 Starting Pitcher in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Doesn’t everyone deserve a second chance? And shouldn’t this rule also apply to say...an entire baseball team? More specifically, to one of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball history? 

If you are one of those good and just people that believe this, then you agree that the putrid Seattle Mariners 2010 offense deserves a second chance. And if you agree with that, then you are going to put yourself in great position to give yourself one of the top pitching staffs in your fantasy league this year, thanks to the dominance of “The King” Felix Hernandez.

Felix Hernandez has been trending up (and down in certain stats) over the last three years in nearly every meaningful pitching stat that you will obsess about for these glorious five months or so. One can’t argue with the following trends…

2008 – 3.45 ERA / 1.39 WHIP / 175 SO / 200.2 IP

2009 – 2.49 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 217 SO / 238.2 IP

2010 – 2.27 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 232 SO / 249.2 IP

As you probably noticed however, I have left The King’s Wins off of this list. Well those have gone 9, 19, 13 from 2008-2010 respectively.

Weird huh? Well as one would expect, The King’s win totals have been very dependent on his team (most specifically his offense). 

When you take a look back at the last three years for the Mariners as a team, their win totals have gone from 61 in 2008, to 85 in 2009, back to 61 in 2010. It’s hard to win games as a pitcher when your offense refuses to score any runs for you. 

In ten of Felix’s losses last year, the Mariners only scored him ten total runs in those games. There were also more than a few games in which he left the game when the game was either tied, or he had a lead, only to see the bullpen blow his effort into the air. But then, even amongst the lack of support he received, he was able to put up 13 wins, including a 3-0 record against the Yankees with a 0.35 ERA in those starts.

More encouraging news for Felix is that the Mariners offense is bound to improve (because they just can’t be any worse), they managed to improve their defense yet again (with the addition of Brendan Ryan at 2B or SS, Jack Wilson returning to health, and Michael Saunders in LF spelling the cancerous Milton Bradley), and they still play in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, with the spacious Safeco Field.

Now obviously, having Tim Lincecum is nobody’s worst nightmare. Getting either him or Felix on your team would be simply phenomenal and will help your fantasy efforts. Lincecum will surely give you 15+ wins, 215+ SO, and a nice ERA. That being said, I think Felix presents the more upside due to the fact that all it will take to add wins to his list of elite stats, is the offense only marginally improving.
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, Draft Day Debate, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernanadez, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, AL East, NL West, Tyler Becker, Nick Polak
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