 Carlos Beltran (credits below) With the first quarter of baseball coming to a close shortly, there has never been a better time for the Peckin’ Order to get back into the swing of things, no pun intended. Teams are approaching their 40th game of the season and as much as we have had some player surprises, teams have done a little shocking of their own.
Who would’ve thought the Baltimore Orioles would be leading the AL East after 36 games? Not I. The Orioles have come out throwing punches and drop kicking just about every opponent they have faced so far compiling a 22 – 14 record, more than 25% of the wins they have had in each of the last 7 seasons. Meanwhile, the Red Sox who are on a 4 game winning streak are still 3 games under .500 at 16 – 19, a record no one thought would happen with Bobby V at the helm.
In the National League, the Washington Nationals currently lead the Eastern division with a 22 – 13 record while the former NL East Champion Phillies sit below .500 after 36 games.
When it comes to players, I must say I told you so. Albert Pujols (1B, ANA) currently has.510 OPS with only 1 homer in his first 142 at bats, while Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) ranks in the top 10 of 1B in OPS with .957. And that’s not all I was correct about, See: Mike Morse (1B, WSH), Gordon Beckham (2B, CHW) and Ryan Roberts (3B, ARI).
With that said, let’s check out the players at each position that are climbing up the charts.
Catcher:
Carlos Ruiz (C, PHI) is one of the only true bright spots in the Phillies offense so far. He currently leads all catchers with at least 100 at bats in OPS at .965 he has driven in 23 smacked 6 dingers and scored 16 runs. Just below him is Matt Weiters (C, BAL) who is second among catchers with at least 100 at bats in OPS with a .902. Weiters has knocked 8 pitches over the outfield fence driven in 20 runs, and scored 21 to help lead the Orioles to their first place position.
First Base:
Bryan LaHair (1B, CHC) is tearing the cover off the ball. LaHair has a 1.154 On base + Slugging percentage hitting 9 big flies with 20 runs batted in and 16 runs scored. He currently leads the league in OPS for first baseman and ranks 3rd among them in homers. Another shocking revelation is that of Adam Dunn (1B, CHW). This South Sider is currently first in homers for a first baseman, second in runs scored, runs batted in, and his OPS of 1.003 ranks fourth among first baseman.
Second Base:
After hitting at least .290 in each of the three previous seasons prior to 2011 Omar Infante (3B, MIA) saw a bit of a decline last year. He is showing so far that it was an abnormality with a .304 average so far, Infante has the highest OPS of any second baseman with at least 100 at bats and has 6 round trippers while stealing 2 bags. Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) has been a nice fantasy addition for some teams with OPS over .830 Altuve has stolen 6 bags and scored 20 runs. He isn’t a power hitter so the power numbers won’t be there, but he can get on base and steal bags two things everyone can use a little more of.
Shortstop:
Cody Ransom (SS, ARI) hasn’t gotten the At Bars so far, with only 45 on the year. However in his limited time he is making fantasy owners demand more playing time. He has a .289 average with 4 homers 12 runs batted in and has compiled an OPS of .982 tops among all shortstops with at least 45 at bats. As much as I like to rub it in when I am right, I’ll be the first to step up and say it when I am wrong. And I was flat out wrong about Rafael Furcall (SS, STL). Obviously there is still a lot of time left and he can get injured at any time, however, thus far he is on fire. Furcal is currently hitting .370 with 7 stolen bases and 25 runs scored. He only has 2 homers thus far but has 16 runs batted in to show for it.
Third Base:
Another player I was wrong about was David Wright (3B, NYM). Before the season started I wrote that he was someone you wanted to stay away from. However after 118 at bats Wright has four homers, and leads the league in OPS among 3B with 1.083. Wright has scored 25 times and driven in 21 runs while stealing 3 bases. Un-owned in more than 40% of leagues Will Middlebrooks (3B, BOS) is ripping the cover off the ball in his limited playing time. Middlebrooks will most likely be sent back down to the minors when Kevin Youkilis (3B, BOS) comes back from the DL but his 4 homers and above 1.000 OPS is going to make it hard for Bobby V to pull that trigger.
Outfielders:
It isn’t a surprise that Carlos Beltran (OF, STL) is playing good, but that he is playing THIS good. Beltran has been on a steady decline in power output since his 41 homer 2006 season. So far in 2011 he already has 13, and we are only just about to reach the quarter mark. If he continues on this pace, he will shatter those 2006 numbers. Jay Bruce (OF, CIN) has always been known for his power potential but he has yet to be able to get the average up to match. This year seems to be a bit different as in his first 126 at bats he is hitting .302 with 10 homers and 26 runs batted in. He has also swiped 3 bags which isn’t normally his strong suit.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Peavy (SP, CHW) has been an injury waiting to happen for several years now, and much like with Rafael Furcal there is plenty of time for him to get injured. However, in the first quarter of the year, Peavy is tied in quality starts with 7 and currently boasts a 1.89 ERA with 44 strike outs in just over 52 innings pitched. Brandon McCarthy (SP, OAK) started his career with Texas and couldn’t seem to get things going. But since being moved to Oakland he may have found the right home. McCarthy has 6 quality starts in 2012 with an ERA under 2.60 and 36 strike outs in 52 innings pitched.
Relievers:
Jim Johnson (CL, BAL) was named the closer this year, and in just 15 appearances already has 11 saves more than any other previous year’s total. Not only is he closing games (13 Game Finishes of his 15 appearances) his ERA is under 0.60 second lowest among closers with at least 10 saves. The closer with the lowest ERA in that group is Fernando Rodney (CL, TB) who has a 0.54 ERA with 10 saves. While Rodney is currently giving up more hits than Johnson is his strike outs and walks are better than Johnsons to go along with his 16.2 innings pitched so far.
It is within good reason that some of these players won’t be available to you when you look through the waiver wire. But if they are, these guys are immediate pickups. They are all playing great baseball and with larger sample sizes the majority of them should keep it going throughout the long haul.
(May 8, 2012 - Source: Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
 Adam Wainwright (credits below) Starting Pitching isn’t too difficult to find in fantasy sports. All thirty teams in Major League Baseball comprise their rotations of at least five players. Even though there are so many starting pitchers available you have to choose carefully when selecting the guys you’ll have on your fantasy roster.
This next group of players isn’t just ones I would draft but a group of guys who can easily be had on the cheap in most drafts.
Five Pitchers I would be willing to draft in 2012
As a bonus this first pitcher will be grouped in with another. Injuries are always a part of the game and a lot of pitchers go through them. The violent movements and the heavy rotations they place on their elbow, and shoulders are tolling and sometimes cause break downs. Adam Wainwright (STL) and Stephen Strasburg (WSH) know this all too well.
Wainwright has been the talk of the town in St. Louis for many years, Wainwright burst onto the scene in 2006 and is known for putting away the Tigers in the World Series as a closer. Wainwright was named a starter the following season and had an 8+ win/loss margin in every year besides his first as a starter. Prior to the injury Wainwright was getting into his comfort zone striking out batters at will with 212 Ks in 2009 and 213 in 2010 before missing all of last year because of the surgery.
Strasburg has been talked about ever since he was drafted first overall by the Nationals a few short seasons ago. He made a quick appearance in the Majors and was blowing people away, striking out 12.2 batters per 9 innings. He was never truly able to turn his massive strike out numbers into victories with only 6 total wins in 17 starts but that was more of a product of the players around him. In 2012, the team seems like they are getting better acquiring the right players to fit the right roles and that will easily help his draft stock. Wainwright is falling under the radar a bit while Strasburg is garnering a 4th round draft pick or higher. But both players will get you the wins, the strikeouts and keep their ERA’s low.
A lot of people hate on the Michael Pineda (NYY) experience that is going on in NY. Pineda is only 23, was striking out 9 batters per 9 innings while keeping his ERA under 4 in 2011. Granted his ERA prior to the all-star break was much better than after it, but his strikeout numbers remained and that is a promising feature to hold onto.
Pineda is coming to a much smaller ball park in terms of the corners however, except for right-center field which has the same 385ft dimensions; Yankee Stadium is actually bigger than Safeco Field and that will actually help his numbers. Although his ERA numbers won’t be astonishing to say the least, his win total will increase and if he can continue to stay on the path of striking out a batter per inning he will be great for the Yankees and even better for your fantasy team.
I have sat for years watching Anibal Sanchez (MIA), waiting for him to break out, but to no avail. And due to the sluggish beginning of his career, Sanchez went undrafted by most fantasy players in 2011. I can promise you, he won’t be a sleeper in 2012.
Sanchez didn’t produce the wins (that’s more of a telling story for the offense behind him), but his ERA was under 4 for the third straight year and he increased his strikeout numbers nearly 60 higher than he did the year prior.
This season the Marlins are a much better looking team with the acquisitions of Jose Reyes to help with run support, and Heath Bell to help with closing of games, his win totals should spike. With a new stadium in Miami that sees fences pushed up to 420 feet away, his home run totals should drop and with that so will his earned run average. If he can continue to put up the strikeout numbers he did a year ago, he will be a great player to have this season.
The Atlanta Braves seem to never be short an amazing pitching staff and recently they have been building it again to match those of the 90s. And while they may never get to be that good, the quality of young arms coming up is worth noting.
Another strike out monster, Brandon Beachy (ATL) saw nearly 30 more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2011 and should continue to produce those numbers again. A bit troubling is his 5.2 IP per star mark which isn’t very good as it tends to show that the violent nature in which he throws will either cut his games short, or cut his season short if injuries begin to be an issue. Beachy did go 7 – 3 which is good as he is producing more wins than losses, and did have an ERA under 3.70 and a WHIP under 1.21 is great.
The Braves will be in contention up until the end of the year and it will be because of guys like Beachy. Brandon’s ADP is around the 115 mark in or around the 10th round of a 12 team league which is great value for a player striking out as many batters as he is.
Another member of the Nationals rotation is fire baller Gio Gonzalez (WSH). Gonzalez was acquired from the Athletics in the off season in a trade and was the best move of the off season for the Nationals. Gonzalez comes into an already young rotation with Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman (WSH) and others and is a little different than the aforementioned pitchers with only an 8.8 strike out per 9 ratio but who’s counting? Not only did Gonzalez throw 197 strike outs in 202 innings pitched but he had an ERA of 3.12 and recorded 16 wins. Now he is playing for a much better offense, one that will actually put up runs, and with that we could see a 22 game winner in the mix shortly.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
Keep your eyes peeled for the new YouTube channel launching soon for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Season
(October 6, 2011 - Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images North America)
Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to download a preview.
 Ryan Roberts (credits below) If you wait to draft a third basemen you could be stuck with these guys and it won’t be pretty.
I just expressed my feelings towards the top eligible players at third base. I mentioned that guys like Hanley Ramirez (3B, MIA) and Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) were changing positions as most of you already know. They will obviously be the first choices at the position; however, they won’t have eligibility until they get a few games under their belts. In the meantime if you are able to grab either of these guys for the “future” and are looking to pick up a starting 3B for the time being here is a list of players you do not want to draft.
The Third Basemen you don’t want to draft in 2012:
There is a lot of talk about how the New York Mets are bringing in the fences in order to spruce up the offensive numbers for their ball club. This will obviously help players like Jason Bay (OF, NYM) and David Wright (3B, NYM) but don’t hold your breath for season changing numbers. After the 2010 season there was a lot of promise for Wright to get back to his normal self, but then an injury slammed season in 2011 and a poor showing when he was healthy enough to take the field, has me believing he isn’t back yet. If healthy, Wright should give you a good number of stolen bases, and a decent amount of homers, but he could hit 10 – 15 homers as easily as he can hit 30. Wright no longer has Carlos Beltran (OF, STL) or Jose Reyes (SS, MIA) in the lineup to protect him or his numbers, keep that in mind when looking for runs scored and runs batted in categories.
Ryan Roberts (3B, ARI) has done next to nothing in his career up until last season. With only one other Major League season playing in more than 50 games, Roberts 19 homers and 86 runs scored were slightly inflated. Roberts was only able to drive in 65 while hitting .249 which isn’t very good at all with the playing time he saw. If a drop comes, and I am willing to bet that one will come, it will only make him and your fantasy team worse. Pass on Roberts in 2012.
Chase Headley (3B, SD) has always been a favorite of mine, until the last couple of seasons were played. He only played in 113 games last year but with nearly 400 at bats Headley was only able to hit four homers and 44 runs batted in. His average and on base percentage are promising numbers, but in a ball park that sucks up more fly balls than tornados suck up houses, Headley isn’t worth a draft pick let alone a starting position on your roster. Don’t expect to see many if any at all power numbers, the ball park won’t allow it, and the players around him won’t either.
Pedro Alvarez ((3B, PIT) may have been asked to make the trip to the big leagues a bit too early. In 2009, a combination of A+ and AA ball Pedro ripped the cover off the ball hitting 27 homers and 95 runs batted in with a .288 AVG. This was his only full season in the minors before being called up during the 2010 season. Alvarez hasn’t been given the opportunity to start on a full time basis yet so that may be a major reason for why the numbers have been so small, however, it doesn’t look like he was given enough time to develop in the minors and hasn’t been able to keep up with major league hitting. In 2011, Pedro Alvarez only hit 4 home runs in 235 at bats, driving in 19 and hitting below .200. If those numbers keep going he won’t be worth anything. I still think he has plenty of ability to turn it around, but I won’t be wasting a roster spot, or draft pick on him to find out, and neither should you.
Normally you wouldn’t downgrade a player who just hit .320 with a .362 on base percentage. But in the world of fantasy baseball, when it takes more than just one category to win your league, the following player isn’t worth a draft pick. Daniel Murphy (3B, NYM) is eligible at several positions which gives him value but don’t expect major outputs from him at any of the available positions he plays at. Murphy hits for minimal power (career high is 12 home runs,) and doesn’t drive in or score many runs. If he hits over .300 like he has done twice so far in his career he is a nice addition to your bench, but be hesitant about him being able to keep that going. If you aren’t going to let him pass on draft day, make sure you have a very reliable player as your starter.
Make sure you are able to see the Beware of Dog signs up on these players on draft day. All five of these players are ranked in the top 20 of available third basemen and they can easily be interesting to look at as you begin to rise in the draft rounds. Keep moving on, and make sure to grab the players that are actually going to help you win.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for The Fantasy Fix.You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFixKeep your ears open for the upcoming FantasyFix radio show coming soon. (October 6, 2011 - Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)
 Evan Longoria (credits below) The Hot Corner is filled with amazing talent, but which players should you draft in 2012?
In past years, the third base position has been pretty consistent, the same players producing the same amount year in and year out. However, this season we have some new faces at the position, and not since Alex Rodriguez made the switch from shortstop to third base have we seen the type of talent become 3B eligible.
It will be easy for me to tell you to draft Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) and Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) as they are probably the best players at their current positions and are making the switch across the diamond. It would be easy for me to tell you to draft Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) as he also holds eligibility at the hot corner, but I am not going to do that. It’s a given that these players are the best at their real position so it’s safe to say they will be among the best at third as well.
The Top Third Basemen to draft in 2012 are: Evan Longoria (3B, TB) has been one of the most consistent players at the position since breaking into the Majors back in 2008. Last season a “down year” for Evan still saw 31 HR, 99 RBI and 78 Runs Scored, his .244 AVG was less than stellar, but a BAbip of .239 normally means Longoria was extremely unlucky. In Evan's 4 seasons in the majors he is averaging 34 HR with 115 RBI and a .274 AVG. If Longoria can turn his unluckiness around, his numbers are going to sky rocket, and you’re going to want him on your roster.
The next two players on this list had injury riddled 2011 campaigns, but should continue to find starting roster spots in 2012. Ryan Zimmerman (3B, WSH) barely reached the 100 games played mark in twenty eleven and had an off year in the games he did play. With only 12 homers and 49 RBI in 395 at bats his numbers were much smaller than his career averages. With signings to the pitching rotation the Nationals are looking like a real squad, and Zimmerman will no longer be the reason why they win. Hopefully this will allow him to take a more relaxed and have a patient approach to the plate boosting his offensive production. Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) is starting to show his age, or the effects of his steroid use as his body begins to break down. Only 99 games played for A-Rod in 2011, and he still hit 16 HR with 62 runs batted in and 67 runs scored. His batting average and on base percentage were both up from the previous year allowing me to believe that although he may be getting older his bat, power, and talent aren’t going anywhere. Alex will fall further down the list, but can be a great addition to any fantasy baseball team. Remember to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, with Ranks, Auction Values, Expert Mock Draft and tons of articles. Click here to learn more or purchase.
The youngest of the players to draft this year, is Brett Lawrie (3B, TOR). I was a bit critical of Lawrie last year. He was kept in the minors a bit too long for someone of his talent and there was a lot of talk that something internally wasn’t right. Then he went down with an injury and just couldn’t find the field. When he was finally called up he slowed down all of his critics including myself, with 9 homers 25 runs batted in, scored 26, and stole 7 bags, while hitting .293 with a .373 on base percentage. Those numbers over a full season eclipse the 30 / 90 / 90 / 25 mark. Patience like his isn’t seen often at such a young age, but he is getting on base and doing a great job at it. His ability to run, hit for power, and make contact with the ball is going to make him a great pick in this year’s fantasy draft.
Aramis Ramirez (3B. MIL) is another player who has been pretty consistent over the years. In 2011, Ramirez hit .306 with 26 big fly’s, 93 runs batted in, and 80 runs scored. He had a bit of an off year in 2010, but he showed that was more of an abnormality than anything else and it shouldn’t worry you one bit. Ramirez will be joining the Brew Crew this year, and while he won’t have Prince Fielder (1B, DET) hitting around him, he will have Ryan Braun (OF, MIL), Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL), and Corey Hart (OF, MIL) in the lineup. Miller Park is an upgrade for Ramirez who should find it easier to hit homers and with the players around him drive in plenty of runs.
The Panda is back. 2010 wasn’t as kind to Pablo Sandoval (3B, SF) as he would’ve liked with a decline in every single fantasy category from the previous year. 2011 was a bounce back year for Pablo, as he nearly doubled his HR output, and with a .315 average nearly .050 points higher than his 2010 average. If Pablo can stay fit and healthy he can certainly put a charge on the ball. Buster Posey (C, SF) will be back from injury as well which will certainly help Sandoval in the batting order. I’d like to see more runs batted in, and runs scored but I think that is more to do with the anemic offense around him and less to do with the Panda alone.
Notable Third Basemen I’d be willing to start on my team:
Emilio Bonafacio (3B, MIA) will have a new position in 2012, with Hanley Ramirez rumored to make the move to the position. Emilio will continue to have 3B eligibility for the season and with his speed ability (40+ stolen bases) and a .296 AVG he will be a great player to have. He won’t hit for much power, but will get on base, steal bags, and score runs which will definitely help your fantasy teams.
David Freese (3B, STL) is coming off one of the best playoff performances of all time. His 2011 regular season wasn’t that much different. Freese hit .297 with 10 homers and 55 RBI in 97 games played. With the loss of Albert Pujols (1B, ANA) and the need for offense in St. Louis, Freese should get more playing time in 2012. With the extra playing time Freese should see a major increase in all power numbers, while maintaining his .300ish average.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for The Fantasy Fix.
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
Keep your ears open for the upcoming FantasyFix radio show coming soon.
(September 30, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)
 Troy Tulowitzski (credits below) Trying to sift through the shortstop position is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
If you thought the second base position was slim pickings then you haven’t seen anything yet. At shortstop there may be about seven players that you should sincerely go out and target... you can get away with guys like Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) and Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI) but it wouldn’t be ideal.
Getting a solid shortstop can be key for any team. It is imperative that you grab yourself a strong middle infield, but if you have to live with a lesser talented second basemen it won’t destroy you. However, getting a bad shortstop could cripple your season, as the production out of the position is extremely short.
Top 5 Shortstops to draft in 2012: Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) is not just the best shortstop in the league but arguably can be one of the best players in all of baseball. I wouldn’t necessarily draft him first overall, but I can see where a case can be made that he deserves the spot. In the last two seasons Tulo has been an All Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner at shortstop and has been in the top 10 of MVP voting in each of the last three seasons. Tulo has averaged nearly 30 home runs, and 100 RBI over the last 3 seasons and has compiled a .293 career batting average. To go along with his amazing offensive prowess is his respectable – not great, but decent – speed numbers. Troy, has had double-digit stolen bases in 2 of the last three seasons and missed that mark by 1 last year.
When Jose Reyes (SS, MIA) is healthy he might possibly be one of the most deadly players in Major League Baseball. Jose has at least 30 stolen bases in the six seasons where he played at least 125 games, and in the other three seasons with a combined 158 games played, he has more than 40 stolen bases. But that’s not the most impressive part of the Dominican born All-Star, as he also has great ability to put a charge in the ball, and hit for average which is not something often seen from a speedster of Jose’ caliber. Jose has 4 seasons of double-digit home runs, and a career average of .292, including a .337 season in 2011. And for those of you in more of a sabrmetrics league that takes into account slugging percentage his 99 career triples will certainly help in that department.
Unlike Reyes, this next speedster shortstop doesn’t hit for much power, but his speed allows him to steal bases at a premium and score runs with the best. Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX) is only 23, and in three seasons in the majors has 102 career stolen bases. A concern for now is his high caught stealing rate, however he seems to be getting better as he gets older. Along with his rising stolen base numbers is his rising batting average. Andrus, increased his average by .014 points in 2011 to .279, and with that came more doubles and a rising slugging percentage. Andrus is still very young, and getting better with every game played.
For years, Hanley Ramirez (SS, MIA) was known as the premier player at the shortstop position then came 2011. Hanley’s season was cut short due to injury and for most fantasy owners it couldn’t have come later. Before going down with the injury Hanley hit .243 with 10 homers, and only 45 runs batted in, numbers that were significantly lower than his career averages. What keeps Hanley in the eyes of almost every fantasy owner was his bounce back July before going down for the season. Ramirez hit .293 with a .391 OBP 5 of his 10 homers and 21 of his 45 RBIs all came in this month. What will eventually give him some added value will be his position eligibility, with Reyes now in Miami as Hanley’s teammate a new position is in the horizon. Ramirez is only 28, he will be around for a while and if he can get back to his All-Star status he will definitely be one of the top players to grab in 2012.
Much like Andrus, this next young shortstop has pretty decent speed. Starlin Castro (SS, CHI) completed his second season in the majors with 22 stolen bases, 10 home runs, 66 runs batted in, and an average of .307 all of which were greater than in 2010. Castro is only 22 this year and with those kinds of numbers he is only going to get better. The old regime is out in the north side of Chicago so this is now Castro’s team for years to come.
Notable SS you can get away with:
Derek Jeter, and Jimmy Rollins are both getting older, and much slower, but they have the veteran status that the others on this list don’t yet have. Rollins was able to blast 16 big flies, score 87 runs and steal 30 bases, which are great numbers if he can keep it up. Jeter got better as the season went along, probably because he reached 3,000 hits for his career and so the pressure was off for the most part. Jeter compiled 16 stolen bases in 2011 the 16th straight season with double-digit swipes, and in the second half of the year he hit .327 to finish with a .297 average.
JJ Hardy (SS, BAL) showed that the power we saw earlier in his career is back with 30 dingers in 2011; so if you need a power bat at the position and the others are off the board jump at Hardy. He isn’t going to get you any stolen bases, and his average and on base percentages are sub-par to say the least, but he will hit for power drive in a decent amount of runs, and score some as well.
Before Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) hit the scene in the mid 90s, it was very rare to see power hitters at the shortstop position. But the fly ball era (aka steroid era) came and with it so did the big bats as shortstop. But with as many shortstops that can hit for great power come at least 3 others who don’t have any. Speed is at an exceptional rate from this position and can really grow your fantasy teams numbers if drafted properly. Written by Justin Mandaro, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com
Follow him on twitter @PeckinTheFix
As always you can ask me any draft, line up, or trade questions on twitter any time of the day. (September 2, 2011 - Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images North America)
 Ian Kinsler (Credits Below) Should there be a high emphasis on position scarcity?
There is absolutely nothing more important then paying attention to depth in fantasy sports. Getting the right players for the right positions at the right time is key to success in fantasy sports, specifically in baseball. One of the most depthless positions over time has been the second basemen. For years, the number of elite second baseman has been hard to come by, causing problems for many players.
This year is slightly different, new players entering the league, and some older vets continuing on their prowess, the second base position is getting to be a bit deeper. Although not nearly as deep as 1B or OF it is passing both the Catcher and Shortstop position in depth, which will allow you to grab other positions first, but tread carefully.
Top 5 Second Baseman to Draft in 2012
It was hard to choose the order of these top 5. Each of these players has the ability to do amazing things at the position. In the end, it comes down speed. A lot of players can put up power from different positions, but not a lot of players have the ability to steal bases and that’s why Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) is atop my 2B rankings. For Kinsler his .255 average wasn’t new territory but it wasn’t his norm either as his career average is .020 points higher, what boosts Kinsler’s value here was the rest of his numbers. For the second time in his career Kinsler surpassed 30 stolen bases and 30 Home runs (both times he did it in the same year). For the first time in his career Kinsler scored more than 102 runs, and he had his second highest runs batted in total of his career. What was really nice to see was his increase in walks with 89 nearly 30 more than his previous career high. A power, and speed combination can often times be hard to come by but Kinsler has it and if he can continue to get on base with walks his value can only grow.
Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) had a bit of a career year in 2011 and a lot of that had to do with Jacoby Ellsbury’s (OF, BOS) and Adrian Gonzalez’ (1B, BOS) amazing seasons. The former AL MVP hit .307 only the third time in his career over .300, and had career numbers in runs batted in (91), stolen bases (26) and home runs (21). Pedroia also scored 102 times in 2011, the third time he was able to hit the century mark in his career. Most Yankee fans may hate me for placing him above Robinson Cano (2B, NYY) (as a Yankee fan myself, I kind of hate myself just for writing this) but his ability to steal, while also going deep catapults Dustin slightly ahead of Robinson. Ellsbury and Gonzalez are still there and as will Pedroia’s production.
Robinson Cano has just about every offensive category that any fantasy baseball owner would want except for stolen bases which is what distinguishes him from the two above. Cano has always had a knack for putting the ball in play, just not necessarily getting on base, which hurts his value a bit more than his speed does. Just imagine if Cano got on base more, his 100+ runs could easily break 150 with the offense that hits behind him in that line up. Despite not being known for his speed, Cano had a career year in stolen bases with 8, which helps but not enough to put him at the top of this list.
Dan Uggla (2B, ATL) had one of the most unimpressive first halves of baseball you could imagine. The one constant however was his ability to put the ball over the wall. Uggla hit a shocking .185 in the first half of the 2011 season but was able to hit 15 big flies, drive in 34 runs and score another 43 in 340 at bats. The second half was a completely different story. Uggla put up higher numbers in runs, home runs, rbi’s, and was able to decrease his strike out totals, all in fewer at bats (260). The most shocking of his second half numbers was the near .300 average Uggla mashed for showing that his first half was more of an aberration than an every year thing. 2011 marked the 5th straight year of at least 31 home runs, 80 RBI’s, and 80 Runs scored. Uggla seems to be in prime position to do it again in 2012.
Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) had one of his best seasons in 2011. Posting a .300 avg for the first time in his career, Phillips also mashed 18 HRs, the 5th time he has had at least that many in a season. Phillips was also able to drive in 82 runs and score another 94 on his own while posting an .810 OPS second highest of his career. A bit more troubling has been the reduction of stolen bases over the last two seasons, over that span Phillips swiped 30 bags, his career high in a season is 32. Brandon has the wheels and the pop to be known as one of the top second basemen in fantasy baseball and should make strong considerations for your team on draft day.
Notable Second Baseman to consider:
Other second basemen I would consider drafting would include, Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE), Howie Kendrick (2B, ANA) and even Eduardo Nunez (2B, NYY).
Kipnis got the call to the show mid way through the year, and showed that with an entire season he could be problem. With 5 stolen bases, and 7 homers in 36 games played in 2011, he could seriously be considered for a 20/20 candidate in 2012.
Nunez stole 22 bags last season in just 112 games played, most of which were spent pinch running. The Yankees infielders are getting older and with that come injuries, with injuries comes more opportunity for Nunez to play. Nunez can see 30+ thefts in 2012 with an increased role on the team.
Kendrick had career highs in runs scored, home runs, and stolen bases. He hit a respectable .285, the 5th time in his career to do that. But, he struck out 119 times nearly 30 times more than his previous high, which is a concern. Albert Pujols (1B, ANA) will absolutely help Kendrick see better pitches which will help him put up better numbers resulting in a pretty decent second base draft pick.
Written by Justin Mandaro, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com
Follow him on twitter @PeckinTheFix
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(October 26, 20112011-10-26 16:00:00 - Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America)
 Ryan Howard (credits below) Knowing the players NOT to draft can be just as important as knowing the ones TO draft.
There are two main components to everyone’s success when it comes to playing fantasy sports. The first and probably most important is the draft. Knowing the right players to draft, and the right players to stay away from could make or break your ENTIRE season; the second is the waiver wire. Just because you had a great or not so great draft doesn’t mean that it’s all over for you. You can’t win on draft day and you can’t lose either. If you put the right amount of time and research into the players throughout the year you can easily make up for a subpar draft.
One way to be able to decrease your chances of having to hit the waiver wire often is to know what you are doing on draft day. Creating the perfect line up for your specific league on draft day can really get you headed in the right direction.
A couple of strategies I like to use when drafting my teams are based on scoring. If your league is a rotisserie league where you get points based on the ranking your team is in a specific category (10 points for the most HR, 1 point for the least amount of steals etc.) you can draft players to dominate a certain grouping of categories. Case in point if your league has a 5 category set up of HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP for hitters you can draft high run, high steal, high OBP players, let them create a substantial lead in the rankings then look to trade for more power oriented players. You may lose a spot or two in steals, runs scored and OBP. However, come the end of the season you’ll gain points in HR and RBI, which will even itself out.
In head to head leagues, a lot of players like the super star / super upside model. They will draft 4 or 5 stud players, then a bunch of role players, then a few upside guys who may or may not break out. This may work if you draft the right set of guys, but some times it isn’t that easy. Build a team of depth, get a lot of very similar players on your roster. Get a lot of 20 HR runs, as opposed to some 30 HR guys and some 8 HR guys in the end the consistency of your team will show and it will get you major points.
Sticking with the tradition of this article, here are the top 5 players you may want to skip when looking at the 1B position.
Top 5 Players NOT to Draft in 2012:
Michael Morse (1B, WSH) exploded onto the scene in 2011 belting 31 home runs 95 runs batted in and an on base percentage above .360, only the second season in his major league career reaching double-digit HR figures and the first time in his career driving in more than 50 runs. Granted, the sample sizes were extremely small for the year’s prior but Morse had been in the majors since 2005 and for some reason he couldn’t keep himself on the field, and that was with the Mariners who haven’t had a talented 1B for nearly a decade. Morse reminds me a lot of Jorge Cantu who broke out in 2005 with 28 home runs and 117 runs batted in and then again hit 29 homers in 2008. Problem was each year following his production dropped by nearly 50%. Cantu has since played for 3 teams in two seasons and hasn’t been able to find a permanent home. Morse is one of those guys you should shy away from unless you can steal him really late in the draft. The speculation that the Nationals might sign Prince Fielder (1B, FA) certainly doesn’t bode well for Morse either.
There is nothing worse then knowing that you failed to extend your teams season with 2 outs in the 9th inning of game 5 in the National League Divisional Series, or is there? Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) found out the hard way unfortunately with a torn Achilles on the final play of the NLDS in 2011 that will end up costing him 5 to 6 months just to recover. The good they came away with from the 1 – 0 loss and the injury is that the season is over, surgery was done and you know that you can get better. I am not totally convinced though, the injury was to his left foot (the push off foot for a big power hitting lefty like Howard) was ripped completely and needed repairs. Howard is turning 33 this year which can often times be the beginning of the down turn for players, but that’s not his biggest worry. Howard is 6’4” tall and 240 pounds, uses all of his lower body to hit home runs and pushes off with his left foot with massive explosion, his body frame and size will not make it easy for him to continue on his torrid home run pace. Reports are floating that he will be good to go by opening day, which is promising, but please be hesitant.
Pre-All Star Break Adam Lind (1B, TOR) had what looked to be an absolutely amazing year. I remember a span when he couldn’t stop hitting home runs, of course he was sitting on my bench when he did it and almost simultaneously with me starting him he began slumping. Before the mid summer classic Lind had knocked 16 different pitches out of the park was hitting at a clip of .300 and drove in 52 runs. The second half story was shocking to say the least. Lind finished the season only hitting 10 more homers, driving in only 35 more runs and had an OBP under .234 a number more than 100 points lower than his first half number. Most people were sucked in with his first half numbers after the completely dismal season he had in 2010, I hope you won’t get sucked in again.
Aubrey Huff (1B, SF) another player to slump big time from one year to the next, saw a major drop in every offensive statistical category, including HR, 2B, R, and RBI. He also dropped nearly 50 points in average and 80 points in his on base percentage. His home stadium isn’t that friendly to left-handed hitters not named Barry Bonds and it caused him to slack a lot in 2011. You may look at his career numbers and say well he has been able to have one good, one bad over the last 6 seasons but when looking at his home and away splits in 2010 he played significantly better away than at home, and then in 2011 the same thing the only problem being he didn’t play well on the road either. If he continues this trend he is nothing more than a stow away player someone not worth drafting unless absolutely desperate.
It is known everywhere that the Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most hitter heavy parks in all of baseball. Most players who have no business mashing the ball have the ability to destroy it far, and deep. Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) was thought to be that guy, he just hasn’t been. Moreland got his time to show his stuff to MLB pitchers in 2010 where he was able to knock 9 big flys in just 145 At Bats over a 47 game span. He got his big break in 2011 and was given the opportunity to start for the majority of the year. In 2011, Moreland increased his at bats by more than 300 but the rest of the numbers didn’t reflect it. Moreland hit for a better average (.004 better), but his on base percentage dropped by nearly .045 points. Obviously given the extra time his HR, Runs scored, and runs batted in were on the up, but by only 7, 40, and 26 from the previous season respectively. Numbers you wouldn’t guess to come from a guy who had 320 more at bats than he did the previous year.
Staying away from the right guys can keep you out of the cellar as much as getting the right guys can get you to the top. Baseball is known to be a marathon so take your time and make the right moves and you’ll be great. Try to sprint your way through and you’ll make mistakes and that will never be good in the long run.
Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro.
As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day.
Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march.
(October 6, 2011 - Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America)
 Miguel Cabrera (credits below) The beginning of the 2012 off-season rankings report for First baseman
With the NFL post-season kicking off this past weekend, and just six measly weeks left until pitchers and catchers report, it is only logical that we start getting into some good ole fantasy baseball talk for 2012. For those of you starting out for the first time, fantasy baseball is a much bigger monster than that of football. For starters, the regular season is considerably longer, opening day for most teams will begin the first week of April, and the end of the season can go until the middle of October, a total of 7 months, longest of any of the major sports in existence. What makes it tougher is that, not only is it 7 months long, but it is also a daily game, at least basketball gives you a couple of days between games to recuperate.
So where do we begin? Well you have to get your league set up. There are multiple ways to play this game, from how many categories do you want contributed to your score, to whether you want it to be head to head like football or rotisserie where you get points for how you rank among the league for each given statistic. Next you have to figure out if you want the advantage of daily line up changes, or if you want to lock the line ups Monday morning and make it a weekly league like football. While the latter might be more fun it is certainly a disadvantage for when you lose a player on Monday and can’t replacement him for another 7 days as opposed to football where you only lose that players production for one game and can switch them out the next. And finally, you have to figure out how long you want your season to go, and whether or not you want full MLB rosters or one specific league.
It may seem like a lot to think about, but in the end these are essential aspects of your game that you’ll need to figure out. Once you have all that down it’s now time to begin ranking your players. But for those of you who don’t want to take the time to do that, you have found the right place. From this point forward you can find my bi-weekly columns of the top 5 players to draft at each given position, and the top 5 players that may be on the decline in 2012.
Because, I was a first basemen for 18 years of my life that’s where we will begin, and with the amount of new faces at the position and some old faces in new places at the position this shall be a great place to start.
Top 5 First baseman to draft in 2012:
Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) has been one of the most consistent 1B in baseball since he broke into the game back in 2003. Miguel has taken residency in two of the biggest parks in baseball during his tenure in the league, so his numbers are slightly mind-boggling. However, his production has been nothing but stellar including his last four seasons in Detroit where he has been able to blast an average of 40 HR and 115 RBI per year. What makes him even better, is his ability to get on base. Just last season Cabrera was second in all of baseball in walks with 108 good for an On Base Percentage (OBP) of .448 nearly 30 points higher than the second highest OBP for first baseman. Because most leagues include Hits (H), Runs (R), Runs Batted In (RBI), Home Run (HR), Stolen Base (SB), and OBP as the six offensive categories Cabrera reaches the top of all first baseman. He isn’t going to steal, but when you have a guy who is top 5 at his position in the other 5 categories it’s very difficult to pass on him come draft day.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B, BOS) was an absolute MONSTER in 2011. His numbers were slightly inflated due to him playing in a much smaller park from 2010 to 2011 (making the switch from San Diego to Boston), so it may be a little difficult to predict similar numbers out of this lefty first baseman. The fact of the matter is, he plays in Fenway, as a lefty with that short porch in right field he should do just fine. In 2011, Gonzalez recorded the most hits of any first baseman in baseball, was 2nd in Runs batted in (RBI) and Runs Scored, and top 5 in OBP. Like most 1B, Gonzalez isn’t going to blaze the base paths, but he will certainly garner you excellent production for the other five categories.
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) had what most people would say to be a “down” year in 2011. He stroked just under 30 HR, but drove in 103 runs, scored another 106 on his own and walked nearly 20 times more than he did in 2010. However, his average, homers (by 8), RBI (by 10), and Runs Scored (by 5) were all down in 2011 causing him to have a “down” year. While the numbers suggest him to have slumped his overall production was good to be a top 5 first baseman last season. Votto plays in one of the most hitter friendly parks and that isn’t changing any time soon. The Reds young players around him are only getting better with Jay Bruce, and others, which will eventually allow Votto to see better pitches as teams will be forced to get him out more frequently, this is when Votto will be able to use his amazing eye to select the right pitches for him to take advantage of.
Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) used to be known for his amazing ability to put the ball into the stands. From 2004 – 2006 Konerko averaged 38 home runs per season, however besides a .313 average in 2006 just couldn’t get his average to be consistent. The following three seasons weren’t so kind to Konerko, never scored more than 75 runs, never more than 31 HR, couldn’t drive in more than 90 runs, and never hit higher than .277 average. So why would he be one of the top 5 players to draft? Well, since then, Konerko is back to his HR mashing ways averaging 35 HR per season, driving in more than 100 runs per year, but where the real jump goes to is his average has jumped back up and over the .300 mark to a two year average of .306 per year. Konerko isn’t really walking enough for a first baseman but his OBP of .388 and .393 over the last two years is nice. If the rest of the White Sox line up can drive him in he could be even more valuable at the first base position.
Just because of his name I think you have to talk about Albert Pujols (1B, ANA). However, I am a bit hesitant to draft Pujols in 2012. Pujols has never been hampered by his ball park as he has done what he has in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball, so knowing that Anaheim’s isn’t that much better isn’t a true worry for me. What has me hesitant is his jump from the National League to the American League. He plays in a league that holds the best starting pitchers in the baseball like Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA), Justin Verlander (SP, DET), CC Sabathia (SP, NYY), Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and others around the league. The argument could be made that he also faced big time starting pitchers in the National League, with Roy Halladay (SP, PHI), Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) and others, but overall the amount of talent can’t be compared to that of the American League. He doesn’t know these pitchers, for the most part he has never faced them, or if he has it’s only been for a few at bats, and the pitchers in the American League will use this to their advantage.
Notable 1B To Draft in 2012
Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) and Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) were the heart of the rookie 1B class of 2011. Averaging 20 homers between the two of them, they were both able to drive in nearly 80 runs, steal multiple bases and batted over .280 higher than star 1B like Ryan Howard (1B, PHI), Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) and Adam Lind (1B, TOR).
Prince Fielder (1B, FA) still doesn’t have a team, news around the league state that the Nationals are going hard for him, which may hurt Mike Morse (1B, WSH) value. But will also help Fielders. For now, we have to wait to see what team he lands on, but keep an eye on this situation because it could determine whether he is a draftable 1B or not.
The first base position is known for its power output. 12 first basemen in 2011 hit more than 25 homers and 13 first basemen drove in more than 80 runs. If you are one of the lucky ones to go out and grab the guy who not only hits for power but also hits for average then you’re in a perfect position. Because other positions like Catcher, Short Stop, and some Out Fielders don’t put up the power numbers that a first basemen can it is nearly imperative to get one of these top sluggers on draft day.
Written exclusively for The Fantasy Fix by Justin Mandaro.
As always you can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
I am available to answer any draft and keeper related questions any time of the day.
Every week I will have two articles offering the top 5 players to draft at each position, and the top 5 players to let slip down your board culminating with my top 200 rankings for 2012 in mid march.
(October 2, 2011 - Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)
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