2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
It's just past the All-Star Break and the Awards just can't wait til seasons end. The Fantasy Fix and some of the top fantasy experts out there have made their choices. Take a look to see the first half MVP, Cy Young, Surprises, Busts and more!  American League MVP: Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays Usually, the fantasy MVP and the real-life MVP are the same. In the American League this year, however, I don't think they are at all. The Red Sox' Adrian Gonzalez is undoubtedly the AL MVP. He leads the Major Leagues in batting average, hits, doubles, and RBIs, and is tied for 2nd in OPS. He has kept the Sox afloat through myriad injuries to its rotation (Lackey, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, and Matsuzaka have all missed time) and offense (Crawford has been out for a month, Youkilis has been banged up, and Scutaro and Lowrie have been a revolving door at shortstop), yet entered the All Star break a game up on the Yankees for first place in the AL East. A-Gon has been the constant, and deserves the MVP. HOWEVER, Adrian Gonzalez was a first round fantasy pick. He is expected to perform this way, and his owners have been rewarded for using a high pick on him. Therefore, the first half fantasy MVP goes to Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays. Joey Bats was not a first round pick, and was probably the cheapest keeper imaginable in keeper leagues (since he wasn't worth much at the beginning of last year). But he leads the majors in home runs, walks, on base percentage and slugging percentage (by a ridiculous 99 points), and is 2nd in runs, and 3rd in average. For a first round pick, he'd be well worth it. But for a lower round guy - even a 4th rounder - he's an absolute steal. Written exclusively by Jesse Mendelson for www.thefantasyfix.com. Find and friend Jesse on Facebook. (July 10, 2011 - Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)  American League CY Young: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit TIgers The AL CY Young is arguably the closest race. A case could be made for CC Sabathia, but good pitching is more than just the total number of wins, as was evident by Felix Hernandez winning the award last season with only 13 wins. James Shields is a contender for the CY Young with a league leading seven complete games; three of which were shutouts. The Rays’ starter does not have as many quality starts and has a slightly higher ERA than other contenders though. Jered Weaver, who owns the league low 1.86 ERA, has put together a CY Young like season, but does not meet the standards of Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander. Verlander leads the AL in strike outs (147), quality starts (19 out of the 20 games), and WHIP (0.87). Unlike Shields and Weaver, Verlander had to pitch more of his early games in colder, non-dome environments that led to shaky starts early in the season. The weather warmed up and so did Verlander as he threw a no-hitter this season and flirted with a second. The 28-year-old has not allowed more than one run in his last seven starts to close out the first half of the season. Verlander edges out the competition to be the 2011 Mid-Season AL CY Young winner. Michael Pichan twitter: @FantasyNomad Host of the Fantasy Baseball with RotoInfo.com podcast (June 29, 2011 - Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)  AL first half surprise: James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays 2010 was not a good year for James Shields. He ended the season with a 5.18 ERA while allowing a career high 34 home runs. However, his K/BB numbers actually looked rock solid, which made him a nice sleeper pick on draft day. But even as a sleeper pick, no one could have imagined him putting up the numbers he has so far in 2011. Shields has made a huge adjustment in command, keeping the ball down in the zone more often and lowering his HR/9 from 1.5 last season to 0.8 this season. He has done that while maintaining almost identical K/9 and BB/9 numbers from a year ago. 2010: 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 2011: 8.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 And talk about an adjustment in luck! Last season Shields fell victim to a .341 BABIP and lower than average 68-percent strand rate. This season, Shields has been helped by a very low .257 BABIP and abnormally high 81-percent strand rate. A second half regression may be forthcoming, but there is little doubt that those who took a chance on Shields on draft day are tremendously surprised and satisfied with his ace-like numbers so far. Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of Fantasy Baseball 365. He also contributes to Fire Brand of the AL, Project Prospect,ESPN's Sweet Spot, The Outside Corner and more. Follow on Twitter. (July 15, 2011 - Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)  American League Rookie of the Year: Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners Pineda gets my vote for the first half American League Rookie of the Year. The 22 year old flame thrower is averaging a strike out per inning, has an ERA just over 3.00 and has eight wins pitching for an offensively challenged team. In 113 innings he has only given up 81 hits and 36 BB's. His stat lines are much more impressive than the much heralded, Drabek's, Britton's and Hellickson's of the world. My only concern is a innings limit and if Seattle falls way out of contention, he will be shut down. National League Rookie of the Year: Danny Espinosa, 2b, Washington Nationals I gave Craig Kimbrel a higher grade in this week's Rookie Report but based on pure overall numbers I am going with Epsinosa as my Rookie of the Year candidate. Espinosa is on pace for a 30 home run , 90 RBI, 20+ SB season. He also leads all rookies in eight different offensive categories. One other plus is that he has played in all 92 games for the Nationals this year. Written by John Marino of TheFantasyFix.com. You can read John's "Rookie Report" every Tuesday at The Fix, or follow him on twitter @JMarBing (July 8, 2011 - Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America)  American League Bust: Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox The AL bust is the easiest call of the year - Big Donkey Adam Dunn. He was drafted on average in the 3rd round, and has rewarded his owners with a .160 average, a sub-.600 OPS, and a measly 9 homers. He has a measly 82 total bases, good for 208th in the majors this year, and fewer than Danny Valencia, Yuniesky Betancourt, Lyle Overbay, Jamey Caroll, Mark Ellis (who was DFA'd by the hapless A's offense), Brendan Ryan, and - believe it or not - Ronny Cedeno! He has 2 hits off left-handed pitchers all year, and he has shown absolutely no signs of coming out of it. For a guy who has hit at least 26 home runs every year since 2002, the depths of his suckiness knows no bounds, it seems.... Written exclusively by Jesse Mendelson for www.thefantasyfix.com. Find and friend Jesse on Facebook.  National League MVP: Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals No player was laughed at and called "done," and "finished," more than Lance Berkman this offseason. But at the mid-way point, if Berkman was to just stop playing now, he'd still have had a better season than last year, and close to as good of a season as 2009. With an ADP around 300, odds are Berkman went undrafted in most leagues. But he's been a top-20 player to this point of the season, and has been the best player (even per game!) on a team that features both Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Written by Eric Yeomans of TheFantasyFix.com and StruckOilers.com. You can follow him on Twitter @EricYeomans. (July 8, 2011 - Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)  National League CY Young: Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies If baseball handed out a midseason Cy Young Award, it is virtually impossible to argue that it should be given to anyone other than Roy Halladay. The Phillies ace (and that’s saying something considering their staff) has lived up to the expectations that come with being the first pitcher drafted in most leagues. He has accumulated the highest WAR total among all MLB pitchers to date and has accumulated a full win more than the next best NL pitcher, teammate Cole Hamels. Not to mention the fact that his FIP currently sits almost four-tenths of a point lower than his ERA. It couldn’t be safer to say that we should expect Halladay to give us more of the same in the second half. With Halladay being such a definitive answer to the first half NL Cy Young question, it would be more interesting to pick an NL pitcher who has provided fantasy owners with the most value based on his average draft position and his production to date. Brandon Beachy and Bud Norris are good candidates given their numbers and the fact that they went undrafted in most ten-team mixed leagues. However, Jair Jurrjens was the 70th starter taken according to ESPN’s average draft position, and he is currently the 10th best pitcher according to ESPN’s player rater. That’s essentially the definition of value. Despite his excellent first half (12-3, 1.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Jurrjens likely has little chance of being considered a Cy Young candidate as season’s end due to the probability of regression in the second half. Jurrjens currently has a negative ERA-FIP deferential of 1.23, a K/9 of only 5.29, and a BABIP (.256) and strand rate (84.1%) that are far enough away from the mean that some regression in those categories is presumable. Thanks to a favorable ballpark and above average defense behind him, Jurrjens may not come absolutely crashing back to earth, but it still may be a pretty hard fall. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (July 7, 2011 - Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America)  NL First Half Surprise: Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals At this point in time last season, Lance Berkman was almost insignificant in most fantasy circles, carrying a .255 average with 12 home runs and 43 RBI. When he became a part-time player, after being traded to the New York Yankees at the 2010 trade deadline, the long time Houston Astro could be found on waiver wires everywhere. Entering the 2011 season, most owners balked at the idea of the 35-year-old Berkman being able to be an every day outfielder again for the St. Louis Cardinals. The lack of production in 2010, plus the increase risk in injury as an outfielder, made him an after thought on draft day for most mixed-league owners - even in deep leagues. Berkman’s resurgence at the plate this season is almost unexplainable. Hitting in a lineup that features Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols has surely helped him, and out of the three sluggers, no one thought Berkman would be leading the team in batting average (.290), home runs (24), and RBI (63) at the all-star break. He was a difference maker for the Redbirds when Pujols was struggling and Holliday had to miss time at the beginning of the season. “Big Puma” has been a difference maker on most fantasy teams as well, providing top-20 production for a much, much cheaper price. Written by Nate of BaseballPress.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NateSpringfield (June 30, 2011 - Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)  National League Bust: Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves There were a lot of candidates for this (dis)honor, with the likes of Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez failing to provide top-pick production. But I don't know of an NL player who has been more frustrating to own than Dan Uggla. He's hit enough bombs to not be a bust there, but one look at his batting average leads you to believe that the only hits he's got were homeruns. Lots of that has been bad luck, with a BABIP almost 100 points less than his career. But with his walk rate down 3% from last year, it looks like he's really starting to press to get out of this funk He's also on pace to finish with 25 less runs and 40 less RBI than last year. Even if he turns it around in the second half, there's no way he makes up those numbers. Written by Eric Yeomans of TheFantasyFix.com and StruckOilers.com. You can follow him on Twitter @EricYeomans (July 6, 2011 - Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)  Prospect currently not in MLB that will make biggest impact in 2nd half: Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants It is difficult to predict impact prospects because a lot is based on opportunity meaning there to be an injury or trade. I tinkered with Julio Teheran or Paul Goldschmidt, but I think Brandon Belt sees time before them and gets more of an opportunity. Belt went from an unknown in 2010 to a Top 25 prospect coming into the 2011 baseball season. He made the club out of spring training and then proceeded to struggle earning a demotion. Belt overachieved to get there and should have been left to work out of his slump, but at the end of May he got hit on the left wrist and suffered a hairline fracture which sidelined him until now. Belt has put up solid numbers in Triple-A to warrant a strong projection upon his next promotion with a .316 batting average, 5 HR, 23 RBI, and a 33/30 K/BB showing a strong batting eye. He also has three SB which could be an added bonus. Belt’s 28% K rate is offset by his 20% BB rate and his statline of .450/.504/.955 all point to an impact bat in the 2nd half of the season. Michael Rathburn covers minor league prospects in his weekly column "Farmer's Market" for RotoExperts Exclusive Edge Package. You can reach him at @RotoExpertMRath and mrathburn@rotoexperts.com. (April 16, 2011 - Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Daily News, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Advice, The Daily Fix, All-Star, First Half Awards Add Comment The FantasyFix.com is proud to present you with the first celebrity roundtable event of the 2011 fantasy baseball season. We've trolled the internet to find some of the most interesting, knowledgeable and reliable figures in fantasy baseball today, and asked them to share their knowledge and expertise on the following topic: Based on historical trends or statistics, identify one fantasy baseball hitter OR pitcher that you consider an excellent target to "Buy" (or "Buy Low" as some say) via trade as we approach June. This is what they said...  Adam Dunn Adam Dunn has always been an all-or-nothing type of player. With a career strikeout rate well over 30% and at least 38 home runs in each of the last seven seasons, Dunn is the king of the all-or-nothing club, even over renowned members of the club like Mark Reynolds (38.3% career K%, 104 HR 2008-2010) and Carlos Pena (31.3% career K%, 144 HR 2007-2010). True to form, Dunn is striking out frequently this year. In fact, he is striking out at the highest rate of his career, 38.8% of the time. As a result, his batting average is a predictably low .216. The bigger problem is that the home runs have not been there so far. Were Dunn to continue on his current pace, he would end 2011 with around 20 home runs. But Dunn’s HR/FB rate is roughly half that of his career rate at this point, and that should come around because Dunn is still hitting the ball in the air (50% FB%) and hitting it hard (20.8% LD%). In other words, it seems that Dunn’s power outage is more a result of bad fortune rather than a declining skill set. In the preseason many pointed out that the move to the White Sox and the hitter-friendly U.S Cellular would be beneficial, or, at the very least, not detrimental to Dunn’s power numbers. It may not seem like that has been the case so far, but sooner or later (probably sooner) Dunn is going to start proving that logic right. So if you are searching for power, Dunn is a good trade target. You might be able to get him for less than full value and acquire 25-30 homers from here on out. Written by TheFantasyFix.com's senior fantasy baseball analyst, Brett Talley. Check out Brett's column, The Rubber, where he breaks down the top 50 pitchers on a weekly basis. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL  Ian Kinsler After a disappointing 2010 season, Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler is off to a slow start once again. So what's wrong? The knock on Kinsler has been his durability, but that's not an issue so far; he's played in 37 of the Rangers' 38 games. It's not his contact rate. In fact, Kinsler is striking out at a career-low 10.7% of his at-bats. It's not his pitch selection. His 12.7% walk rate is a career-high. And despite hitting just .229, Kinsler does have five home runs and an isolated slugging percentage of .200 -- which is more in line with his best seasons (2007-09) than his injury-plagued 2010. Perhaps the biggest reason to expect a rebound from Kinsler is a .223 average on balls in play that's 66 points below his career norm. As a result, his expected average (according to BaseballHQ.com) is a more palatable .291. Many owners see Kinsler's paltry RBI total (15) and chalk that up to not getting many opportunities at the top of the order. Despite hitting in the leadoff spot, he's had runners on base in 40% of his at-bats. Yet he's hitting just .179 with runners on and .161 with them in scoring position. Just average luck on balls he puts in play will boost his average, help him to drive in more runs and allow his ability to hit for power to shine through. In addition, the one bright spot for Kinsler owners this season -- seven stolen bases -- could turn into an even bigger advantage once he starts getting on base more frequently. With solid skills contradicting many of his surface stats, Kinsler makes a nice buy-low opportunity for savvy fantasy owners. Written by Steve Gardner of USA Today. Check out Steve Gardner's Fantasy Windup blog online at fantasywindup.usatoday.com and follow him on Twitter@sgardnerUSAT. (March 10, 2011 - Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)  Andrew McCutchen Coming into 2011, I probably had higher expectations than most that Andrew McCutchen would become a $25 fantasy player which is only 15-20 hitters a year. At 24 years old, with 1150 at bats under his belt; McCutchen showed marked improvement from 2009 to 2010. His K rate went from 19% to 15% and his BB rate was already solid around 10-11%. Throw in a better lineup around him, moving down in the order to 3rd meant the power would also increase. I projected McCutchen at .290-100 R-25 HR-80 RBI-30 SB. The only concern I had was - How would the change from leadoff to the 3 hole effect his approach at the plate? McCutchen’s 2010 value was $18 in a standard 12 tm mixed and I pegged him at $25-$28 for 2011. He is only at $13 so far this year but if he was hitting .290 he would be right at $18 again. In April, he was dealing with some family issues plus a BABIP of .243, where his career BABIP is around .310-.320. All of McCutchen’s other metrics are inline including an increase in FB% to 50%. The only exception is his K% and it’s over 20%, but he has already adjusted and it’s down to 15% in May. I contribute the K% increase to the lineup change, and now that McCutchen is back in the leadoff spot his K% is 15% albeit a small sample size. Grady Sizemore was a Fantasy stud hitting .265/30 HR/100 RBI/30 SB and McCutchen can be that type of player with a higher batting average and a little less power. Michael Rathburn is the resident Dynasty league guru at RotoExperts.com with two weekly columns – Farmer’s Market (Minor league baseball) and Burn Notice (Dynasty league football). You can email him at mrathburn@rotoexperts.com or follow him on Twitter @RotoExpertMRath (April 28, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)  Nick Swisher Nick Swisher hit .288 last year. It was the highest single season AVG of his career, well above his career average of .251. Known for being an extremely patient hitter in the past, Swisher became more aggressive last year, swinging at pitches over 68 percent of the time. That was over a ten percent jump from the year before. A .335 BABIP helped as well, but the home runs, runs and RBI that came along with being a part of the stellar Yankee lineup were all part of the equation. This season, Swisher is off to a horrible start, hitting only .221/.338/.311 with a mere two home runs in 148 plate appearances. However, Swisher's numbers suggest that an improvement is coming. His current .263 BABIP is extremely low considering his line-drive rate of almost 25 percent. While it's no lock that Swisher will hit much more than .265 the rest of the way, his power numbers should start to spike before long. In both 2009 and 2010, Swisher hit 29 home runs and held a HR/FB rate above 15 percent. His current HR/FB rate is only five percent. The lowest HR/FB rate of his career as a full time regular was 11.6 percent back in 2007. There's just no way that Swisher's power doesn't show up again. Given his complete lack of production so far in 2011, you can probably get Swisher for 10 cents on the dollar. He may have even been cut in some leagues. Now might be the best time to buy low and reap the rewards of the rest of his season. Written by Charlie Saponara Owner/Author Fantasy Baseball 365 Columnist, Fire Brand of the AL (Affiliate of ESPN's Sweet Spot Network) Columnist, Sons of Roto Contributor, Project Prospect Twitter.com/CharlieSaponara (May 12, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)  John Danks I actually think it is really hard to buy-low on anybody these days, especially someone of merit whose statistical track record would be significant enough to support a bounce back (i.e. Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, etc…). I did a two part series on the matter over at paulsporer.com, where I suggest that at the top tiers of underperformers, you can’t really buy low, but instead you buy at fair market value even it is 1:1. With that said, I would recommend buying in on John Danks. The 0-6 W-L record makes him look much worse than he has been, but he is someone I would target without fear. He has given up six in five and five in six in two of his last three starts. And in the other start, he didn’t strike anyone out, so with that three start run his owner may be souring so it is time to swoop in. He is being punished by an abnormal BABIP (.327 as opposed to .267 and .274 marks the last two years), but there is no discernible skill change to explain the difference meaning there is reason to believe it will regress back to his norm. He has also become one of the most reliable workhorses in the games, too (195, 200 and 213 IP the last three years) meaning you can just about guarantee another 24-25 starts of mid-3.00s ERA and mid-1.20s WHIP or better. Meanwhile, three year bests in his strikeout and walk rates also suggest positive things for Danks in the near future. Buy. Written by Paul Sporer of paulsporer.com. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer (May 9, 2011 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)  Ryan Dempster Ryan Dempster: Did you listen to me when I told you to buy low on Dempster or to hold on if you were infuriated with his slow start? After finishing April 1-3 with a 9.58 ERA and 1.87 WHIP, Dempster was dropped as often as Lindsey Lohan has failed rehab, which translates to an awful lot. So what has happened in three starts in May? All Dempster has done is produced three quality starts thanks to a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He's also posted a K per inning and has only walked three batters. On the year that leaves Dempster with a 6.71 ERA that should be half that – literally. His xFIP, which records what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that are in his control (it also normalized homer rates) says his mark should be 3.30. I don't doubt that he can get his ERA back into the 3's this year. Written by Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com. Follow Ray on Twitter @baseballguys. Ray is also the host of The Fantasy Drive on Monday-Friday from 5-8 PM EDT on XM 87, Sirius 210. Well there you have it. The experts suggest buying Adam Dunn, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Dempster, Nick Swisher and Ian Kinsler. Do you agree or disagree with these five choices? Why or why not? Who are you buying on? Leave us a comment, or tell us on twitter @TheFantasyFix! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Roundtable, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Buy Low, Trade Targets, Ian Kinsler, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Dempster, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, Ray Flowers, Steve Gardner, Brett Talley, Charlie Saponara, Michael Rathburn  The FantasyFix.com is proud to present part two of our final fantasy baseball roundtable of the 2010 Major League Baseball season. We asked five prominent voices in the fantasy sports industry the following question: As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, identify one pitcher that you are keeping close tabs on, in anticipation of the 2011 season. Briefly describe their 2010, why you are keeping tabs, and what you expect from them in the 2011 season.  Bud Norris Bud Norris | RHP | Houston Astros One of the best ways to find value on draft day is late round pitching. Mat Latos and Clay Buchholz are prime examples for this season. With that in mind, the player I am going to be keeping a keen eye on in September is Astros’ starter Bud Norris. As a prospect, Norris had been highly touted due to a plus-fastball and power breaking ball. However, the lack of a true third pitch (his changeup) and concerns over the combination of his size and high-effort delivery had caused many prospect gurus to foresee a late inning role in the bullpen. Norris, at least for now, has silenced any of those concerns. ERA aside, which we’ll get into later, Norris has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball since July 1st. Now with over 100 innings under his belt this season, Norris has compiled a 9.27 K/9, good for eighth best among major league starters. That K/9 ranks him above Jon Lester, Mat Latos, Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez to name a few. His command was poor to start the season, but in July Norris posted a respectable 3.45 BB/9 and this month he has shown tremendous improvement in his BB/9 rate, lowering it to 2.48. Stuff wise, Norris can miss bats with the best of em. His 24.6 percent whiff rate puts him among names like Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. About that five-plus ERA…Norris has been a victim of his environment this season. His BABIP against is probably a bit high (.331), but his strand rate (runners left on base) is quite low. Norris’ strand rate is at 63.8 percent, which is well below the league average of 72 percent. Both his BABIP against and strand rate have been products of one of the worst defenses in baseball and both rates should improve next season. These are two factors that Norris can’t control on his own and two big reasons that his xFIP is at 3.91, over a full run lower than his ERA. The best part about targeting Norris in the late rounds of 2011 drafts is that he is all upside with just about no risk. Sure, the Astros are not going to give him a lot of run support and the defense may not improve much, but you know that Norris is going to rack up the strikeouts when he’s out there. If he continues to show the strikeout potential and improved control/command in September, Bud Norris is going to be a player I target in every league on draft day 2011.  Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of FantasyBaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com. Twitter @FB365. You can also read his work at Fire Brand of the American League and Project Prospect.  Madison Bumgarner Madison Bumgarner | LHP | San Francisco Giants On a San Francisco Giants team that is loaded with terrific starting pitching, Madison Bumgarner is currently a gem tucked away at the back end of the rotation. The former number ten pick overall of the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft has provided the Giants with a reliable option this season behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez. Bumgarner, 21, is a 6'4'', 215 pound left-handed youngster who demonstrates good strike zone control with all of his pitches. Prior to the 2010 season, Bumgarner was praised for having a mid-90's fastball with an above-average slider and change-up and was ranked as the number fourteen overall best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Madison was making a name for himself and was easily the favorite to land the number five spot in the rotation when Spring Training ended. Then something happened; Bumgarner lost velocity on his fastball. His fastball was sitting in the high-80's to low-90's, allowing hitters to tee-off against him near the end of March. Bumgarner would open the season in Triple-A Fresno where the Giants could work on his mechanics, hoping to reestablish his fastball to a respectable level. After compiling a 7-1 record with a 3.16 ERA over 14 starts in the Pacific Coast League, which included a 59/22 K/BB ratio over 82 2/3 innings, Bumgarner was finally ready to join the Giants during the month of June. Since his callup, Bumgarner hasn't been Stephen Strasburg dominant, but he's been consistently good during every outing (minus his last start against the Cincinnati Reds - yikes). During his first full month at the Big League level, he held a 4-2 record over six starts with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and posted a 7.0 K/9 ratio and three home runs over 39 2/3 innings. While AT&T Park is known as a "pitcher's park", Madison has struggled while pitching at home this season, as he's posted an 0-2 record over five starts with a 6.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and has allowed five home runs. On the road, Madison has posted a 5-2 record with a 2.62 ERA over seven starts. So what does Madison need to do so that he can be successful for the rest of 2010 and 2011? First thing is first, Madison will need to do a better job against right-handed hitters. RHH are hitting .299/.340/.473 against him with seven home runs. As expected, he's held lefties to hitting just .239/.311/.418 with just three home runs. To this point of the season, Bumgarner has also received some help from hitters, as according to FanGraphs, batters have swung at 30% of his pitches that were outside of the strike zone, which can be attributed to Bumgarner's ability to remain around the strike zone as the game moves along. As far as pitch types, Bumgarner will need to steer clear of throwing his low-90's fastball over and over to the hitter during one at-bat. I've noticed that he will pump 4-5 fastballs in a row to the hitter, instead of mixing in his change-up or slider when he falls behind. For fantasy purposes, Madison Bumgarner should be targeted on your keeper teams and NL-Only teams for next season. Depending on how the Giants decide to handle his innings the rest of the way (He's already surpassed his 2009 total of 141 innings between the minors and bigs) - he becomes a late-round number five or six starter for your fantasy team. Remember, Bumgarner will be 21-years old for a good chunk of the 2011 season and while he hasn't been the dominant lefty we all thought he would be, Bumgarner still has the talent to become a number two or three starter for the Giants down the road. Along with Bumgarner pitching in "pitcher friendly" AT&T Park, he also plays in the weak NL West, which is up for grabs every season. For the 2011 season, Bumgarner will certainly be back in the Giants' rotation as a number three or four starter. Fantasy owners should expect more development from Bumgarner's off-speed pitches, which will surely help his low-90's fastball against right-handed hitters. With Madison get a full workload in 2011, he's capable of posting a ~4.00 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and just over six strikeouts per nine innings.  Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for BaseballPress.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow Reggie on Twitter @sacksjacked.  Chris Tillman Chris Tillman | RHP | Baltimore Orioles My love for Orioles pitchers runs pretty deep, for whatever reason. I mean there’s nothing better than a starting pitcher on a losing team in the worst division for pitchers in the league. Yet there I’ve been, on guys like Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Hayden Penn, Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Loewen, and even Sidney Ponson to name a few recent ones. I can pretty much count on one finger how many of those guys have been successful. Enter Chris Tillman. After putting up high strikeout totals to go along with high walk totals over his first three years in the minors, it looked like we had another Daniel Cabrera on our hands: lots of missed bats, just as many missed strike zones. But last year it finally started to come together after he put together a nifty 9.22 K/9 to go along with a 2.42 BB/9 in the minors. But as soon as he entered the majors, balls stopped missing bats and started getting planted into the outfield bleachers. Still, a 5.40 ERA from a rookie pitcher in the AL East is probably what should be expected. Heck, even everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher two years ago, David Price, put up a 4.42 ERA in his first year starting. Then came 2010. Again, Tillman was pretty much a train wreck in the majors, while finding success in the minors. In fact, Tillman has seemed to regress since last season. He’s basically mixed good start with awful start this year, while seeing his K/9 decrease and BB/9 increase since last year. His ERA is inflated due to an absurd 54.8% strand rate, but it still sits well above 5 when all is accounted for. However, when he has had some success, it has been against some pretty solid offenses: Toronto, the Yankees, and Texas in Texas, in the middle of summer. So when he puts it together, he can be pretty solid. Tillman’s working on adding a two-seamer to his repertoire, which could help some. Even more, not getting jerked around by the organization, getting bounced up and down from the big league club could help just as much. Either way, I’ll be watching his September call-up closely, and even more so his offseason. He’s still young at 22 years old, and is super talented, so it’s just too soon to write him off just yet. If he shows any encouraging signs of improvement, I wouldn’t be afraid to grab him with one of my last picks next year. Might as well take the plunge on a guy with big strikeout upside.  Written by Eric Yeomans. If you’re tired of the same old number-crunching fantasy sites, and can’t fill your fix of fantasy shenanigans over at my friend’s www.milliondollarsleeper.com, then swing by my blog at http://mister52pickup.wordpress.com/. Here you’ll find daily coverage on basically whatever comes to mind on any of the big four fantasy sports, and even the occasional sports story that has no fantasy relevance. But if numbers are your thing, then check out http://www.profootballfocus.com/, where there is an absolutely insane amount of statistical analysis that goes on there that is completely unmatched by the rest. There, you can check out my weekly IDP columns The Monday Morning Cornerback, where I take a look at the week that was, and The Pick-Six, where I take a look at some solid buys for the week to come. Also, feel free to follow me on twitter @PFF_Yoms.  Jeremy Hellickson Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay Rays Originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 Major League Baseball Draft, Jeremy Hellickson entered 2010 rated as the 18th best prospect by Baseball America. Prior to getting the call, Hellickson appeared in 109 games in six Minor League Baseball seasons, earning a 49-16 record while posting a 2.71 ERA. More impressively, "J-Hell" racked up 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and achieved a 4.63 strikeout to walk ratio through 588+ innings pitched. Since getting the call to the big show for his 8/2 debut, J-Hell is 3-0 in four starts with a 2.05 ERA and has recorded 8.54 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents have been hitting a measly .177 against Jeremy, and of those who reached base, 82.4% have been left stranded. The Rays sent him back to A+ after his 8/20 start versus Oakland as a technicality. While Hellickson is slated to get called back up when rosters expand, Jeremy is likely headed to the bullpen. His fantasy baseball value will be minimal, although he may be worth the stream if he earns a spot start versus the right opponent. Although many of the statistics used in this article are taken from the small sample of MLB appearances, I'm confident Hellickson's success in MiLB was not a fluke. I expect Hellickson to be a solid #3/4 starter for fantasy baseball owners in 2011. His excellent command leads us to believe he will provide owners with miniscule ratios and a plethora of strikeouts. Written by Fonzy for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow the Fonz on Twitter @TheFantasyFix  Jordan Zimmermann Jordan Zimmermann | RHP | Washington Nationals One of the most highly touted prospects in the minor leagues heading into the 2009 season, Jordan Zimmermann should be on your radar for 2011. Let's look at his minor league career averages prior to his callup in 2009 (2010 was rehab-focused on a pitch count, so not representative of his talent): 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 195.2 IP 9.9 K/9 3.1 BB/9 0.7 HR/9 Clearly, Zimmermann is a guy who gets a good number of Ks, doesn't walk too many batters, and keeps the in the park. It should come as no surprise that he had elite-caliber ratios on the way up. Looking at his 2009 numbers, we find a pitcher who had a little bit of bad luck (.339 BABIP, 67.5 LOB%, 12.2% HR/FB) behind his disappointing 4.63 ERA. By normalizing those numbers to league averages, though, his ERA should have been closer to 3.50 than 4.60 (FIP of 3.59). I chalk up some of his struggles, particularly in July of 2009, to the budding elbow injury that eventually shut him down until last week. During June, Zimmermann appeared to be turning the corner (8.9 K/9, 1.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), and I believe that is a glimpse of what he can offer us in 2011. The problem is that he had the surgery, returned about a year afterward as expected, and was promptly shelled for 5 ER by the Cardinals. Now, St. Louis can do that to nearly anyone, so you can't really draw much of a conclusion from that game. Regardless of the sample size, his luck was worse than ever in that game (.452 BABIP, 52.6 LOB%, and one shiny dinger from Sir Albert Pujols himself). The rest of 2010 will tell us a lot about Zimmermann. Can he keep the ball in the park like he did in the minors? His 43% GB rate suggests he will, although there are examples of GB pitchers who can't (Jorge De La Rosa, I'm talking to you). Can he continue to mow down batters post-surgery? Will his control hold up on a rebuilt elbow? These questions are important. Stephen Strasburg is following his path, pitching well for a large part of his rookie campaign, only to go down with a UCL injury that will result in Tommy John surgery as well. In other words, their "new" franchise pitcher is out for a year, while their previous franchise candidate will be more than 18 months removed from the surgery by opening day. This is Jordan Zimmerman's chance to take the rotation anchor role and run with it. I'll be watching you Jordan. And I expect you will be up to the task. Tommy Landry (http://twitter.com/tommy_landry), co-founder of RotoExperts.com and long time veteran of the fantasy sports industry, is the Fantasy Basketball Examiner for Examiner.com and is also a respected social media and marketing blogger on http://ReturnOnNow/. He was a finalist for the 2008 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Series of the Year. What pitchers will you be targeting in 2011? Let us know by leaving a comment or replying to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, 2011, Pitchers, Roundtable, Prospects, Madison Bumgarner, Jeremy Hellickson, Bud Norris, Chris Tillman, Jordan Zimmermann The FantasyFix.com is proud to present our final fantasy baseball roundtable of the 2010 Major League Baseball season. We asked eight prominent voices in the fantasy sports industry the following question: As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, identify one batter that you are keeping close tabs on, in anticipation of the 2011 season. Briefly describe their 2010, why you are keeping tabs, and what you expect from them in the 2011 season.  Alexi Casilla | 2B/SS | Minnesota Twins Two seasons ago Casilla looked like a budding star at the second base position. He was a switch-hitter with speed, surprising extra base pop and a master manipulator of the strike zone. Not an easy commodity to find. He finished 2008 with a .281 BA, seven HR and 50 RBI before a thumb injury ended his season in July. Attitude concerns buried him deep in the doghouse in 2009, and his performance on the field took a nose- dive. He barely scraped above the Mendoza Line at .202. Most organizations would have cut ties with a troubled 26-year old, but the Twins never gave up on his potential (even when he was out of options). Injuries in the middle infield presented him with another opportunity to showcase his skills, and he ran with it. In 20 starts between July 24th and August 24th he posted very useful stats: .297 (22-74), 13 runs, 11 RBI, six doubles, 2 triples and four stolen bases. He has yet to flash the 50 SB potential he displayed in the minors, but the wheels are there. With Orlando Hudson signed to a one year deal, Casilla could be the Twins starting second baseman and number two hitter in 2011. Likely to be available at a bargain basement price, this risk/reward proposition is quite an attractive one. Adam Ganeles is a senior writer for TheFantasyFix.com. Additionally, Adam contributes to the famed NBADraft.net.Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamGaneles  Pablo Sandoval | 3B | San Francisco Giants Coming into the year, Sandoval was going off the board as a top-30 option in many drafts. At this point, he isn't even a top-30 infield option in the National League. At the same time, I think his down season this year leaves him as a player who will make a great bargain next season. After all, Pablo still owns a 3-year average of about .310-20-85-80 with a .850 OPS per 162 games played, and those numbers will play in any league. So why the struggles this season? His walk rate is slightly down, as is his K-rate, and the resulting 0.59 K/BB mark is virtually identical to his 0.63 mark from last season. Pablo also is sporting a 1.20 GB/FB mark that is right in line with his 1.25 career rate, so the type of ball he has hit hasn't changed much at all. The real issue this season has been an erosion of his line drive rate which has led to a .050 point drop in his BABIP mark. A little bit better luck next season, and a few more line drives, should allow him to once again hit over .300. The biggest issue for the Kung Fu Panda though might be his willingness to take care of his body. Only 24 years old, Sandoval reminds me of a 34 year old Mo Vaughn – and that's not a fattering, I mean flattering, comparison. If Pablo dedicates himself to an offseason regimen to get his body in shape, he'll be primed to be a solid bargain on draft day in 2011.  Ray Flowers is Managing Editor for Fanball.com Owners Edge and RotoTimes.com. You can also hear Ray’s thoughts at the Fanball.com Sirius XM Homepage (Ray is the co-host of a daily radio show on XM 147 and Sirius 211 satellite radio). Follow Ray on Twitter @BaseballGuys  Domonic Brown | OF | Philadelphia Phillies Domonic Brown is that special someone atop my watch list. I often find myself saying, “Sit on my face” in robotic voices when day dreaming about the Phillies Outfielder. Domonic, which I prefer to pronounce as Demonic, may very well be the main character in a J.P. Alex created video game and anyone who doesn’t want a piece of him in 2011 should be labeled as a Grandma’s Boy. The power/speed threat was the Phillies No.1 ranked prospect coming into this season and he should slide into an everyday role when Jayson Werth and his beard hit the free agent market this coming off season. Domonic has all the tools to become a superb fantasy option and the Philadelphia lineup/ballpark is a great environment to find big time production. Brown has power, speed and a good eye at the plate. He also has a track record of producing an above average BABIP, so if his strikeout rate is hovering near 30%, he should still be able to produce a respectable Batting Average. Splitting 93 minor league games between AA and AAA this season, Brown hit 20 HR and stole 17 bases before being promoted to the big leagues. He hit .318 in AA (65 games) and .346 in AAA (28 games). Brown has struggled a bit since his promotion, but he is far too talented to worry about the small sample size. He is getting his feet wet (he only played 28 games in AAA) and the poor numbers (.229 AVG, 2 HR, SB) only helps us get him at a cheaper price in 2011. Listen to my main man Dante, if you don’t draft the Brown Bomber, you may end up shitting your pants.  By Andrew Holm aka Million Dollar Sleeper. Read more of his rants at www.milliondollarsleeper.com and follow him on Twitter@Andrewakamds  Chris Carter | 1B/OF | Oakland Athletics 0-for-19. When Oakland A's prospect Chris Carter tells his grandchildren the story of his major league career, he'll probably look back and chuckle. But living through the worst possible way it could start isn't so easy. After being among the minor league leaders in home runs, Carter was promoted from Class AAA Sacramento to make his big-league debut at age 23 … and in his first six games with the A's, he never collected a single hit. Then Conor Jackson and Travis Buck returned and Carter went back to the minors without so much as a souvenir from his time in The Show. But that horrible start doesn't make Carter any less interesting for 2011. He'll most certainly get another chance with the A's when rosters are expanded on Wednesday. And there's a lot to like about the 6-5, 230-pound slugger. First of all there's the raw power, which is something Oakland needs badly. (The A's are dead last in the majors in home runs.) Carter had 27 homers and 89 RBI when he was called up Aug. 9 -- and since he was sent back to Triple-A he's added four more dingers. His manager at Sacramento, Tony DeFrancesco, told ESPN.com earlier this year that Carter has "the most power I have seen from a young player coming up." That's high praise from someone who's spent 16 years as a minor league skipper. Sure, Carter amassed those gaudy numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but when you put up an ISO of .271 in any league, people will take notice. In six minor league seasons, Carter's already hit 149 homers. In fact, he has been such an intriguing prospect since he was taken out of high school in the 15th round of the 2005 draft that he's been involved in not one, but two high-profile trades. The White Sox dealt him to Arizona in 2007 for Carlos Quentin. Less than two weeks later, he was a key component in the blockbuster deal the Diamondbacks made with Oakland for Dan Haren. What makes Carter even more intriguing for 2011 is that he's become a more versatile player in the field. A first baseman throughout his pro career, Carter was moved to the outfield this season to help facilitate his path to the majors. That transition is still a work in progress, but with 25-year-old Daric Barton establishing himself as the A's everyday first baseman, Carter stands a better chance finding a starting spot in the outfield. Like most young power hitters, Carter does tend to rack up the strikeouts -- 138 of them in 465 minor-league at-bats this season -- so that will be his biggest challenge facing major league pitchers. (He did whiff nine times in those 19 at-bats with the A's.) To make an impression in 2011, Carter will need to improve his plate discipline. That will be one thing worth watching with the A's in September and in the Arizona Fall League. If he can improve in that area, his 0-for-19 start in the majors will be a distant memory.  Steve Gardner has been with USA TODAY in one form or another since 1993. He started at USATODAY.com in 1996, taking over as the website's baseball editor in 1999. See Steve's Fantasy Windup Here! Follow him on Twitter @SGardnerUSAT  Matt Wieters | C | Baltimore Orioles In 2009, keeper league owners drafted Matt Wieters hoping he would be the next Joe Mauer, or at the very least, a consistent top three fantasy catcher. Thanks to a .356 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), Wieters posted a .288 average in his first 96 games of big league action with nine home runs. To be sure, Wieters’ 2009 campaign did not impress quite like Buster Posey has in 2010, but it was a respectable debut that seemed likely to be improved upon. Unfortunately, Wieters has taken a step back in his sophomore season. His 2010 BABIP is a more reasonable .280, and as a result, his batting average has tumbled all the way down to .244. On the bright side, his home run, runs scored and RBI totals are almost identical to what they were last season, and he is striking out less while walking more. So, is Wieters an elite fantasy catcher just taking a little longer than expected to adjust to the big leagues, or was he an overrated prospect that is destined to be an average major league player? Only time will tell. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Be sure to follow Brett on Twitter @TheRealTal  Gordon Beckham | 2B/3B | Chicago White Sox Beckham burned many a fantasy "expert" this season, including me. His woeful .216 batting average and horrific .581 OPS before the All-star break saw him dropped in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues. The fantasy world expected better of him after his solid major league debut in 2009, during which he put up a respectable .808 OPS with 14 homers and 7 steals in just 103 games. Fantasy owners couldn't help but salivate over a potential .300 hitting, 20/20 middle infielder (with position flexibility at both 2B and 3B). Hindsight is always 20/20, but we shouldn't have been surprised to see Beckham experience growing pains in 2010. He did play college ball at Georgia, but had only played 59 games in the minor leagues before his major league debut in 2009. Entering 2010, Beckham had played just 162 professional games in total. Every young player not named Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria faces adversity in the big leagues at some point, and has to make adjustments as the league adjusts to them. It may have been a lost season, but all hope is not lost. In July, Beckham hit .354 with 3 home runs and a .949 OPS, and had continued success in August. Beckham has yet to turn 24, and has the pedigree (8th overall draft pick in 2008, set the Georgia school record with 59 career homers). He's still a great keeper option, and next year I expect him to put up at least a .280/20/10 season. Maybe that's all he will ever be (and that ain't bad), but he may yet develop into a .300-hitting, 30 HR, middle of the order bat.  Written by Alex Shear. Follow Alex on Twitter @RotoSleeperz.  Mike Moustakas | 3B | Kansas City Royals Looking for an odds on favorite for the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011? Look no further than Kansas City's Mike Moustakas. Finally living up to the potential the Royals saw from him when they took him out of Chatsworth High School with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, Moustakas has had an all world 2010 season. Combined between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha, the Moose is hitting an eye popping .323 with 38 Doubles, 30 Home Runs, and 107 RBI. Most impressive is that he's struck out just 63 times in in 443 at bats this season. Having seen Moustakas in person at both Double-A and Triple-A this season, I would label him as one of the top 5 most advanced young hitters in either the Texas or Pacific Coast League this year. While there may be a bit of an adjustment at the big league level, as there is for most young hitters, it would not surprise me at all to see a .280, 25HR, 80RBI season from Moustakas who should break camp as the Royals opening day third baseman in 2011.  Written by Ben Nicholson of TopProspectAlet.com. TopProsepctAlert.com is the premiere source for updates on Minor League Baseball. Follow Ben on Twitter @MinorLeagueBlog  Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates' Pedro Alvarez has the makings of a star. Sweet-swinging third baseman, college stud, 2nd overall pick in last year's draft, and tons of power. He has shown the ability to hit at every level of the minors, where he hit a combined .284 with 40 home runs and an OPS of .908 in A, AA, and AAA over 192 games (40 homers in a season and a third is pretty darn good), plus 10 more in just over 2 months in the majors. Pedro does, however, have three knocks against him - 1) he strikes out A LOT (197 K's in those 192 games, plus 87 more in his first 65 major league games); 2) he makes way too many errors (36 in the minors, 10 in two months the majors); 3) he's a Pirate, and the Pirates haven't had a top prospect pan out since Aramis Ramirez...and that was many years and a couple shoulder surgeries ago. If you're not in a keeper league, Alvarez isn't worth owning right now but is definitely someone to have on your radar for next year. He could become Ryan Zimmerman...or Alex Gordon. If you're in a keeper league, he should be (and probably already is) owned, but if not - GO GET HIM NOW. He's your classic stud prospect, and needs to at least in the keeper discussion next year. Jesse Mendelson, Partner and Senior Writer for www,fantasybaseball101.com,has been playing fantasy baseball almost as long as Ron Shandler with a long history of both tremendous successes and spectacular flameouts. You can contact him at fantasy_baseball101@yahoo.com, and be sure to follow Jesse's writing on www.fantasybaseball101.com and on Twitter @fb101. Stay tuned for Part II of the roundtable scheduled to be published Wednesday, where pitchers are discussed... Leave a comment and let us know what you think, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Alexi Casilla, Minnesota Twins, Orlando Hudson, NBADraft.net, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants, Ray Flowers, Fanball.com, Sirius XM, Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies, Jayson Werth, Andrew Holm, Million Dollar Sleeper, Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics, Steve Gardner, USA TODAY, Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles, Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox | CategoriesAll NJ SEO Company
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