This article is long.  Eff the intro.  I’ll make euphemisms about the pitching rubber and condoms next week.  For now, here is the extra-long first edition of The Rubber 2012.

1. Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Philles, ADP among SP: 1)
2. Cliff Lee (Philadelphia Phillies, ADP: 4)
3. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers, ADP: 3)
4. Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers, ADP: 2)
5. Zack Greinke (Milwaukee Brewers, ADP: 11)

By a couple measures, Greinke was the best pitcher in baseball last year as he led the league in both xFIP and K/9.  He also had an excellent walk rate with a 2.36 BB/9 (4.47 K/BB) and a nice groundball rate of 47.3%.  Unfortunately, his ERA (3.83) didn’t match up with his 2.56 xFIP.  But the reasons for that were out of his control.  His BABIP was on the unlucky side at .318, his strand rate was a touch below league average at 69.8%, and his HR/FB rate was an inflated 13.6% (league average is about 10%).  There is no reason to expect the bad luck to continue, and a luck-neutral Greinke is capable of being a top 5 pitcher.
 
6. Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies, ADP: 10)
7. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays, ADP: 12)

Price’s xFIP from 2009-2011: 4.46, 3.85, 3.27
Price’s K/9 from 2009-2011: 7.15, 8.11, 8.75
Price’s BB/9 from 2009-2011: 3.79, 3.41, 2.53

Price’s improvement is not as noticeable when looking at more traditional numbers like ERA.  But looking at those peripheral numbers you should see a very good pitcher on the edge of becoming a great pitcher.  Price is ready to enter elite territory as he enters his prime.
 
8. CC Sabathia (New York Yankees, ADP: 8)
9. Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners, ADP: 5)
10. Dan Haren (Los Angeles Angels, ADP: 9)
11. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants, ADP: 6)
12. James Shields (Tampa Bay Rays, ADP: 16)
13. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels, ADP: 7)

Weaver’s career BABIP is .276.  He’s capable of sustaining that lower-than-normal number because he’s a flyball pitcher with the ability to miss bats.  But last year’s BABIP of .250 is probably not repeatable.  It’s just more likely that the number will return to his mean.  Kind of like his K/9 did last year (7.56) after a big uptick in 2010 (9.35).  In the same way, expect his strand rate (82.6%) to return to something close to what it was the two years prior (76%).  Returning to all those numbers doesn’t mean Weaver will be a bad pitcher, but it does mean he won’t be the pitcher he was last year.
 
14. C.J. Wilson (Los Angeles Angels, ADP: 17)
15. Ian Kennedy (Arizona Diamondback, ADP: 19) 
16. Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants, ADP: 21)
17. Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants, ADP: 14)
18. Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox, ADP: 13)
19. Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers, ADP: 15)

Like Price, Gallardo is entering his age 26 season and has seen improvement in key areas over the last few years.  His xFIP has dropped three straight years and though his K/9 has dropped in each of the last two years his BB/9 has declined along with it.  All that sounds like things I’d say about a guy I had ranked higher than his ADP, but if you’ve ever owned Gallardo, you know he’s not the most consistent pitcher.  His first start of the season is a fine example of that (3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 5 BB, 4 HR, 3 K).  In the end, all that really matters is his totals, but as a H2H player, I’d rather not have Gallardo blow up my ERA and WHIP a few weeks each year.

20. Mat Latos (Cincinnati Reds, ADP: 25)
21. Matt Garza (Chicago Cubs, ADP: 30)
22. Anibal Sanchez (Florida Marlins. ADP: 41)

I guess this is becoming a theme of this article, but Anibal is another pitcher who has been improving over the last few years.  His xFIP has gone from 4.58 to 4.04 to 3.25, his BB/9 was 4.81 in 2009 but dipped under 3.00 last year, and his K/9 jumped over 9.00 as well.  The strikeout jump may not be completely for real, but the other numbers probably are.  His roto numbers lagged behind his peripherals because of a little bad luck, but if the bad luck doesn’t happen again, then Anibal is going to provide a ton of value for those who drafted him.

23. Jordan Zimmermann (Washington Nationals, ADP: 34)
24. Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox, ADP: 27)
25. Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays, ADP: 20)
26. Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals, ADP: 23)
27. Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins, ADP: 28)
28. Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals. ADP: 18)

The starting point for analyzing Strasburg is also the limiting factor.  Strasburg just isn’t going to pitch more than about 160 innings this year.  So the sub-3.00 ERA, stellar WHIP, and strikeout-plus per inning are desirable, but they’d be more desirable if they came with 200 innings.  And when you throw in the risk that Strasburg misses time due to injury as he has done previously, that inning total is potentially even more limited.  And thus so is Strasburg’s value.

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29. Yu Darvish (Texas Rangers, ADP: 33)
30. Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks, ADP: 24)
31. Brandon Beachy (Atlanta Braves. ADP: 35)
32. Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves, ADP: 31)
33. Michael Pineda (Seattle Mariners, ADP: 32)
34. Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee Brewers. ADP: 37)
35. Ubaldo Jimenez (Cleveland Indians, ADP: 29)
36. Jaime Garcia (St. Louis Cardinals. ADP: 44)
37. Ricky Romero (Toronto Blue Jays, ADP: 22)

Romero has seen marginal gains in walk rate and SIERA, but, for the most part, his numbers have been fairly constant over the last three years.  What hasn’t been constant is his luck.  His BABIP and strand rate were well outside normal ranges last year which allowed his ERA to get under 3.00 and his WHIP to be an excellent 1.14.  But the peripheral numbers pretty clearly peg Romero as a guy with a 3.70-is ERA, 1.25-ish WHIP, and a K/9 a little over 7.00.  That’s good, but it isn’t great.

38. Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins, ADP: 77)

Normally you’d see Nolasco’s 3.55 xFIP and 4.67 ERA from last year and assume he was due for some positive regression.  But if you raise your gaze an eighth of an inch while looking at his Fangraphs page, you’d see these xFIP/ERA combos from 2009 and 2010: 3.23/5.06 and 3.37/4.51.

There comes a point where you have to stop assuming a player will regress to the mean in one direction or the other and assume the difference between their peripheral and roto numbers is status quo.  So are we at that point with Nolasco?

Given that I have him ranked 38th as opposed to his ADP of 77, it should be obvious that I don’t think so.  But let me explain why.  Nolasco’s two biggest problems have been a high strand rate and a high BABIP.  The strand rate has partially been Nolasco’s fault as he had trouble keeping balls in the park in 2009/2010.  He was easily above average in that department last year (0.87 HR/9), but a lower-than-normal strikeout rate kept his strand rate below the mean.  It’s safe to say Nolasco’s BABIP probably isn’t going to be below .300 at any point (.309 career), but it was high even by Nolasco standards at .331.

All these numbers led to more numbers one of the weirdest seasons in baseball history.  Nolasco was just the 13th pitcher in the last 75 years to have a BB/9 under 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.40 or higher in the same season.  And only one of those 12 other pitchers had a strikeout rate anywhere close to Nolasco’s 6.47 K/9 from last year (John Burkett in 1997).

Nolasco’s underperforming roto numbers were his fault in 2009/2010.  But last year he really was unlucky.  So if he can maintain the level of performance from last year, particularly limiting the long ball, and the BABIP luck swings in his direction a little bit, his roto numbers might finally look as good as his peripherals.

39. Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay Rays, ADP: 26)

The inexperienced fantasy player will see Hellickson’s 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and assume Hellickson is a top 25 pitcher.  But the more experienced player will notice that he had the biggest gap between ERA and xFIP of any pitcher last year, the lowest BABIP in the league, a very high strand rate, and an unimpressive 1.63 BB/9 and assume Hellickson isn’t even a top 50 pitcher.  But if you look even closer, you’ll see that he should probably fall somewhere in between.

Hellickson had excellent strikeout numbers in the minors, and it is safe to assume that those K’s will translate better to the majors as he gets more acclimated.  And some of those K’s were traded last season for weak contact.  Probably the best measure we have for a pitcher’s ability to induce weak contact is infield fly ball rate.  Last year, Hellickson had the highest infield fly ball rate in the league (16.2%).  And pitching to contact is a good idea when you have the best defense in the league behind you, which Hellickson does.  So while there is cause for concern with the young righty, I’d bet the inexperienced player’s first impression is closer to being right in this particular instance.
 
40. Hiroki Kuroda (New York Yankees, ADP: 43)
41. Cory Luebke (San Diego Padres, ADP: 39)
42. Brandon Morrow (Toronto Blue Jays, ADP: 49)
43. Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers, ADP: 38)
44. Brandon McCarthy (Oakland Athletics, ADP: 54)
45. Bud Norris (Houston Astros, ADP: 64)

Bud’s biggest strength is his ability to miss bats.  His K/9 dipped below a 9.00 last year, but it came with a significant dip in his walk rate as well (3.39).  If the walk rate continues to trend towards 3.00, then watch out.  Wins will always be hard to come by in Houston, but if the walks come down, Norris could see his ERA get below 3.50 and his WHIP get below 1.30.  Those rate stats combined with excellent strikeout numbers would be an excellent combination.

46. Derek Holland (Texas Rangers, ADP: 61)
47. Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros, ADP: 53)
48. John Danks (Chicago White Sox, ADP: 74)

A little bad luck last year kept Danks from being the pitcher we’ve come to expect him to be, which is a guy with an ERA in the high 3.00’s, a WHIP under 1.30, and a decent K rate.  In fact, his K/9 went up and his BB/9 went down.  Given that improvement in areas he can control, there’s no reason not to expect Danks to be the pitcher we’ve come to expect him to be if not a little bit better.
 
49. Scott Baker (Minnesota Twins, ADP: 50)
50. Jake Peavy (Chicago White Sox, ADP: 72)
51. Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox, ADP: 60)
52. Ryan Dempster (Chicago Cubs, ADP: 62)
53. Juan Nicasio (Colorado Rockies, ADP: 110)
 
Compare the numbers of these two pitchers last year...

Player A: 3.43 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.22 K/BB
Player B: 3.95 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 1.72 K/BB

Player A is Nicasio who was drafted in 1% of ESPN ten team leagues.  Player B is Jhoulys Chacin who was drafted in 51% of leagues.  I know Nicasio is coming back from a scary injury after being struck by a come-backer, but he’s healthy.  He came back strong with this line against the Astros in his first start: 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K.  He should be owned in WAY more leagues and in at least as many as Chacin.

54. Justin Masterson (Cleveland Indians, ADP: 48)
55. Gio Gonzalez (Washington Nationals, ADP: 36)

The deep fences and ample foul-territory of Oakland Coliseum are no longer a factor for Gonzalez, but the control issues are still present.  Until Gio can get the walks well under four per nine, he’s a potential WHIP killer who should be avoided.

56. Ted Lilly (Los Angeles Dodgers, ADP: 52)
57. Ervin Santana (Los Angeles Angels, ADP: 46)

Once upon a time, Santana exhibited excellent control (1.93 BB/9 in 2008).  But more recently he’s been about a 3.00 BB/9 type of pitcher.  Absent BABIP luck, his WHIP will sit around or above 1.30.  He got some of that BABIP luck last year and rode it to a 1.22 WHIP and 3.38 ERA.  However, his xFIP and SIERA show his ERA should have been near four if he had been luck-neutral.  Without more luck, expect Santana to post an ERA just under four, a WHIP around 1.30, and slightly above average K numbers.  Solid, but not worthy of a top 150 pick.

58. Jhoulys Chacin (Colorado Rockies, ADP: 79)
59. Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers, ADP: 51)
60. Jonathon Niese (New York Mets, ADP: 76)

Niese’s xFIP has dropped the last three years.  His strikeout rate has improved the last two years.  His walk rate dropped below 3.00 for the first time last year, all the way down to 2.52.  And his groundball rate jumped into well-above-average territory (north of 50%).  But the problem is that Niese’s BABIP and strand rate have consistently been on the unlucky side of things.  If luck is at all on his side, or even if it’s just not against him, Niese cold have a big, big breakout.

61. Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox, ADP: 56)
62. Vance Worley (Philadelphia Phillies, ADP: 66)
63. Tim Stauffer (San Diego Padres, ADP: 56)
64. Chad Billingsley (Los Angeles Dodgers, ADP: 75)
65. Philip Humber (Chicago White Sox, ADP: 127)

Humber had a strange 2011.  In the first half, he was extremely fortunate.  And in the second half, his luck took a turn significantly for the worse.  But aside from a rough August, Humber pitched pretty consistently like a mid-3.00 ERA pitcher with a K/BB around 2.50.  So don’t be scared off by his 5.02 ERA from July on.  He pitched just as well in the second half, if not better, than he did in the first half.

66. Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, ADP: 57)
67. Chris Capuano (Los Angeles Dodgers, ADP: 98)

Capuanohas some legitimate potential to be a surprising spot-start option.  His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from last year aren’t appealing, but his peripheral numbers were excellent.  He posted a 3.60 SIERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 3.00.  Only 29 other pitchers who threw at least 120 innings managed a SIERA of 3.60 or less combined with a strikeout-to-walk over 3.00 last year.  Not that Capuano is going to be a top 30 pitcher this year, but he should certainly be owned in more than 2.4% of leagues.

68. Trevor Cahill (Arizona Diamondbacks, ADP: 71)
69. Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers, ADP: 54)
70. Alexi Ogando (Texas Rangers, ADP: 87)

Texas has a lot of solid arms at its disposal.  And that is great for them, but not so great for fantasy owners because it’s hard to be certain that players will have consistent roles throughout the year.  If I had to bet, I’d guess Ogando and Feliz end up with similar inning totals.  The slight edge goes to Feliz because he could pick up a few saves along the way, but he was over-drafted and Ogando was undervalued during draft season.

71. Erik Bedard (Pittsburgh Pirates, ADP: 83)
72. Johan Santana (New York Mets, ADP: 58)
73. Francisco Liriano (Minnesota Twins, ADP: 67)
74. Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds, ADP: 93)
75. Henderson Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays, ADP: 95)

All ADP’s from ESPN.com.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who spent his Sunday night writing this 2,500 word article that nowhere close to 2,500 people will read.  You can tell him to cry 2,500 rivers and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(April 4, 2012 - Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America) 

The only possible explanation for Matt Garza not being owned in 1.4% of leagues is that 1.4% of leagues are inactive at this point in the season.  When you consider that and the relative lack of big ownership increases lately, it becomes clear that fantasy baseball is beginning to wind down.

A lot of leagues are formalities at this point with one team running away with the roto points.  Other leagues have the playoff teams all but decided and are waiting for the fantasy playoffs to start.  And some leagues don’t allow add/drops once the playoffs start.

Not to mention the fact that tons of people have shifted into full blown fantasy football mode.

So this will be the last ‘The Rubber’ of the season.  The last normal one that is.  Next week I’ll post my top 50 keeper list with some commentary attached.

But for this last regular edition of ‘The Rubber,’ I’ve selected four guys that are owned in less than 20% of leagues who could be useful down the stretch based on the matchups they will draw.

Matchups assume the pitcher starts every fifth game. 

Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, 19.8% owned) Matchups: @NYM, LAD, @STL, FLA, @FLA, PHI

It’s not all gravy for Minor as probable starts at St. Louis and home to Philly aren’t ideal.  However, Philly is likely to have the division all wrapped up by the last series of the season, so it’s possible that Minor might see a diluted Phillies lineup.

A lot of Minor’s value may depend on whether Tommy Hanson can make it back, but after a recent setback for Hanson, Minor’s chances of sticking in the majors the rest of the season look much better.

In four August starts, Minor has posted a 2.65 xFIP, 26 K’s in 22.1 IP and has issued only 4 walks.  His 1.38 WHIP over that span is driven by a BABIP over .400.  With more favorable starts than questionable starts coming up, Minor should be able to keep this little roll going.


Doug Fister (Detroit Tigers, 7.4% owned) Matchups: @TB, KC, CWS, MIN, @OAK, @KC, CLE 

Now there is a truly appetizing list of probable starts.  There isn’t a single team on that list in the top 10 in runs or home runs this season.  Fister also happens to be a pretty good pitcher.  He isn’t going to strike anybody out, but he’s a pretty reliable sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP type of guy.  Someone who can help with ratios this late in the season is a difficult thing to find.

There is some concern that Fister won’t be the same without the help of Safeco in Seattle, but Detroit’s Comerica Park isn’t exactly a hitter’s park either.  In fact, Fister has had his two best outings as a Tiger there.  He held Cleveland and Texas to one and two runs respectively over seven innings in each start.  He had a little trouble with Baltimore, but that was on the road.  And his other start was cut short due to rain.

Fister easily has the most cake schedule of the four guys listed here.  Grab him.


Chris Capuano (New York Mets, 2.7% owned) Matchups: ATL, FLA, @FLA, CHC, @ATL, @STL, CIN 

Capuano’s ERA by month: 6.04, 3.99, 3.25, 5.23, 5.70

Capuano’s xFIP by month: 4.22, 3.79, 3.48, 4.08, 3.78

From a skills standpoint, Capuano has been pretty consistent.  But the luck (namely his strand rate) has varied.  All in all, Capuano has been pretty good.  He’s striking guys out at an acceptable clip (7.62 K/9), showing decent control (2.72 BB/9), and has a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00.

Admittedly, the matchups against the Cardinals and Reds at the end of month are a bit scary, but the next five starts aren’t that intimidating at all.  Capuano is available in almost every shallow league and likely widely available in deeper formats.  Take advantage of his low ownership percentage, decent skill set, and favorable schedule.

Wade LeBlanc (San Diego Padres, 0,2% owned) Matchups: @ARI, @LAD, SF, @ARI, ARI, LAD, CHC 

We’re going deep with this one.  I’m talking NL-only fantasy baseball(s) deep.  And to be honest, LeBlanc’s matchups aren’t spectacular.  Especially considering that he has to face a decent (and contending) Arizona team three times.  But it’s not the worst list of matchups ever, and he does get four more starts at Petco.

For most, LeBlanc isn’t someone that any attention need be paid to.  But for those of you in NL-only leagues, LeBlanc is probably one of the only options left, if not the only option left, on a waiver wire that is likely picked clean at this point.

He was decent in over a 100 AAA innings this season with a 3.27 FIP and K/BB over 3.00.  That doesn’t mean he’s going to be a ton of help, but he might marginally contribute for those of you struggling to meet the start limit in deeper leagues.



Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.


The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11

I’ll be honest, I have no idea why it took me so long to have Greinke in the top 5 or even the top 10 for that matter.  Check out his numbers:

2.36 SIERA, 10.90 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 5.17 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 64.3% LOB%

6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  8
8. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  12
12. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  13
13. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.6% owned | Last week:  15

Still can’t get over my boyfriend not being 100% owned.

14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5

Depending on what we hear on Hamels’ injury, he could be back in top 10 or out of the top 50 by next week.  Hopefully, his recovery doesn’t go the way Tommy Hanson’s did.

16. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  17
17. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |65.2% owned |Last week: 18
18. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 99.2% owned | Last week: 19
19. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 25
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 96.8% owned | Last week: 20
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  21
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week:  22
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  23
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  24
25. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 97.9% owned | Last week:  16
26. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  31
27. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  30
28. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 27
29. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 73.5% owned | Last week: 42
30. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
31. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  28
32. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 37
33. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 96.0% owned | Last week:  26
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  32
35. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 33
36. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 38
37. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 41.3% owned | Last week: 48

To look up the remaining six or seven starts for each guy in the top 50 would have taken me hours.  This isn’t my full-time job,[1] so I didn’t devote the hours to that task.  However, I did come across a pretty sweet schedule for Lilly.

Matchups: COL, SD, @WAS, @SF, PIT, SF, @ARI 

I’m sure there are other guys in the top 50 who should be moved up or down based on who they face the rest of the way, but Lilly is the only one I happened to come across while looking for guys to highlight in the intro.

38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 83.7% owned | Last week:  38
39. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 98.0% owned | Last week: 40
40. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 91.3% owned | Last week:  43
41. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.8% owned | Last week: 34
42. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  36
43. Erik Bedard | Boston Red Sox | 55.6% owned | Last week: NR
44. Jeff Niemann | Tampa Bay Rays | 90.7% owned | Last week: NR

Welcome to ‘The Rubber,’ Mr. Niemann and Mr. Bedard.  I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Bedard’s arm while on the rubber.  And I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Niemann that would.....well, keep him from turning back into Jeff Niemann.  But for now both guys are pitching well.

45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 51.4% owned | Last week: 45
46. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 55.9% owned | Last week: 49
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 67.6% owned | Last week: 50
48. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.5% owned | Last week:  47
49. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 31.7% owned | Last week: 44
50. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |70.1% owned | Last week:  46

Out this week: Jonathon Niese, Tommy Hanson

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is balls deep in Matt Garza in any type of league.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL

[1] My actual full-time job is really 3 hours of sitting in class four days a week and then drinking, playing video games, and watching TV the rest of the time.

(August 22, 2011 - Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)

There are three pitchers currently owned in 100% of ESPN.com leagues that have not appeared in The Rubber’s top 50 at any point this season and are not included in this week’s rankings.  As a result, I feel like I ought to explain myself.

I covered Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants) last week, but I haven’t touched on Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds) and Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay Rays) much, if at all, this season.

If Cueto had the innings to qualify, he would lead all of major league baseball in ERA with the only sub-2.00 ERA.  Throw in the 1.02 WHIP and there is little doubt that Cueto has provided a huge return for those who made the negligible investment of picking him up off the waiver wire.

The problem is that it’s all smoke and mirrors.  We’re talking smoldering and funhouse-like reflections.

Let’s start with the .227 BABIP.  Even if we cut Cueto some slack and say his career .281 BABIP is a fair regression point instead of the usual .300, that still puts him over 50 points below where he should be in that category.  That shows that the 1.02 WHIP has less to do with the good-not-great walk rate (which Cueto can control) and more to do with batted balls not falling for hits (which Cueto can’t control).

The low BABIP also contributes to the artificially low ERA.  The best ERA estimators (xFIP and SIERA) say Cueto’s ERA should be almost 4.00 based on how he has pitched this season.  Some pitchers (like Matt Cain and possibly Jair Jurrjens) have shown some ability to consistently outperform their peripherals, but Cueto’s 100 or so innings this season is far from a large enough sample size to include him in that class. 

Also helping with the deceptively low ERA are the HR/FB rate (5.3%, which is about half Cueto’s career rate) and the suddenly above average groundball rate (52.6%).  The HR/FB rate has to come up at some point and will contribute to the impending regression, but the groundball rate is potentially a mitigating factor.  However, Cueto was pretty consistently a 40% groundball pitcher over his first 500 innings, so it’s more likely than not that the sudden improvement is an aberration.

The only additional number of Cueto’s to look at is strikeout rate.  Depending on how high it is, it could make regression less pronounced.  However, Cueto’s K/9 is under 6.00.  As a result, there is little doubt in my mind that this little run of Johnny’s will end sooner rather than later.  You’d be wise to address a need and fill that hole for the stretch run by dealing Cueto.

As for Hellickson, you may not know it yet, but he has taken a huge step back in his first full major league season.  The 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP might be hiding that fact from some, but Hellickson has not been the same pitcher that he was during his brief call up last season.

Like Cueto, Hellickson is benefitting from a low BABIP.  His current .234 mark is unsustainable.  Moreover, his 79.3% strand rate is high enough that regression is likely in that category as well.

And where have the strikeouts gone?  Not to mention the control.  His K/9 is down to 6.03 while his BB/9 is up to 3.35.  Those two numbers look far too much like Clay Buchholz’s for my liking.

The ERA estimators see right through Hellickson.  SIERA and xFIP have him pegged as a 4.50-sh ERA pitcher this season.  It’s certainly possible that Hellickson is just going through some growing pains and adjusting to major league hitting, but someone in your league may not realize that.  Deal Hellickson if you can and let someone else’s roto numbers feel the effects of Hellickson’s regression.

Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.


The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  7
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  8
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11
12. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  13
13. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  14
14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  15
15. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.0% owned | Last week:  17
16. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  18
17. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  19
18. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |61.2% owned |Last week: 16

I could spend a few paragraphs detailing how Anibal has been baseball’s unluckiest pitcher the last couple of months, or I could just link to this article and let Peter Christensen explain.

19. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 97.2% owned | Last week: 21
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 99.6% owned | Last week: 22
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  23
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week:  26
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  24
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  27
25. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 30
26. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week:  20
27. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 25
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  28
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
30. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  31
31. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  32
32. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  34
33. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 43
34. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 35.2% owned | Last week: 38
35. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  12

With so little time left in the season, missing two or three starts will really hurt Hanson’s value.  But as soon as he returns Hanson becomes a top 15 play again.

36. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  40
37. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 98.7% owned | Last week: 42
38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 90.9% owned | Last week:  33
39. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 37
40. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.0% owned | Last week: 35
41. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 22.7% owned | Last week: 36
42. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 52.0% owned | Last week: NR

Luebke is the only new addition to this week’s top 50, and I must admit that I’ve overlooked him for a couple of weeks now because he doesn’t have the innings pitched necessary to qualify for the ERA title.

However, Luebke absolutely deserves a top 50 ranking.  In fact, I’m not sure I have him ranked high enough.  His current ERA of 3.00 is backed up by SIERA and xFIP, both of which have Luebke as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  Any luck he has received hasn’t been too drastic.  His BABIP is only .262, he’s actually been a touch unlucky in the strand rate department, and his low-ish HR/FB rate shouldn’t regress too much thanks to the home run suppressing Petco Park.

And how about the K/BB rate close to 4.00 thanks to a 9.55 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9?  Those are some stellar numbers. 

Admittedly, Luebke didn’t display this kind of strikeout ability in the minors, so strikeout levels this high could be a flash in the pan.  But, for now, Luebke looks like a legit option that should be owned in far more leagues than he currently is.

43. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 86.8% owned | Last week:  39
44. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 34.6% owned | Last week: 41
45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 47.7% owned | Last week: 44
46. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |81.6% owned | Last week:  45
47. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.2% owned | Last week:  46
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 40.1% owned | Last week: 48
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 60.5% owned | Last week: 49
50. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 66.0% owned | Last week: 47

Out this week: Edwin Jackson

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who [insert witty/self-deprecating comment here].  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(August 10, 2011 - Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America)

Regression.

It’s a word that has been used at some point in the last eight versions of The Rubber.  It’s been used a total of 29 times in those eight weeks. 

Yet, for as frequently as I use the term, I still don’t completely understand how regression works.  For example, if a pitcher has an ERA of 2.00, but the ERA estimators (i.e. xFIP and SIERA) say his ERA should be 3.00, what does that mean exactly?

Does that mean we should expect his ERA to regress all the way back to 3.00?  Or does that mean we should expect that pitcher’s ERA from that point forward to be around 3.00?

The query makes me think of probability lessons in high school math class.  Probability says that if you roll a die and see a ‘six,’ you are no less likely to see another ‘six’ the next time you roll the die.  However, a pitcher doesn’t throw any two pitches where all the variables are exactly the same, as they are when you roll a die.  Moreover, given a large enough number of rolls, you’re likely to see a pretty even distribution of the numbers that come up on that die.

I understand that the end of the season is a completely arbitrary endpoint, but for the purposes of fantasy baseball, I thought it might be useful to know if pitchers are seeing their ERA’s fall all the way back to their ERA estimators within the same season.

In an attempt to answer this question, I’ve decided to take a look at some guys I’ve identified as candidates for regression throughout the year despite the small sample sizes, arbitrary endpoints and limited number of players to observe.  Maybe some sort of pattern will emerge.

Alexi Ogando (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
After a complete game shutout of the White Sox on May 23, Ogando’s ERA reached its low point of 1.81.  All season long, the ERA estimators have said Ogando’s ERA should have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.60-3.70.  So, since the shutout of the Sox, has Ogando been a 3.70 ERA guy or worse?

Since that day, Ogando’s ERA has been 4.36 over 14 starts.  However, that only brings his season ERA up to 2.88, which is a run higher than it was at its lowest but still almost a run lower than what the ERA estimators indicate it should be.

Ogando’s defenders will argue that his regression is a result of his large innings increase as he has already thrown about 60 more innings than he did last season.  And it’s a legitimate defense of Ogando. Either way, I expect Ogando’s ERA to be closer to 3.60 than 2.90 by season’s end.

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves, 98.9% owned)
Heading into the All-Star break, Jurrjens had an ERA under 2.00.  However, the ERA estimators said it should be closer to 4.00.  In the four starts after the Break, Jurrjens hit a rough patch and saw his ERA rise almost a full run up to 2.63. 

Once again, Jurrjens defenders have an excuse for the regression.  Jurrjens was placed on the DL on August 2 with a strained knee and one could argue it was the cause of his recent struggles. 

As far as I’m concerned, the DL stint is just a two week interruption in helping to answer my question.  When Jurrjens gets back, I’ll be interested to see if his ERA the rest of the way looks more like the 6.00+ number he put up post All-Star break or the 4.00 number of which SIERA says he’s capable.

Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians, 53.8% owned)
At the end of May, Tomlin owned a 2.74 ERA.  The ERA estimators said it should have been around 4.00.  Just over two months later, Tomlin’s 4.08 ERA is almost identical to his 4.07 SIERA.  We can count Tomlin as a guy who regressed all the way to the mean rather than just a guy who began pitching like the mean said he should have been pitching all along.

Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)

For the most part, Vogelsong has avoided the regression monster (although his five earned allowed to the Pirates on Monday could be the beginning of the end). 

However, the thing that jumps out at me when looking at Vogelsong’s numbers is his strikeout rate.  His 7.05 K/9 resembles Ogando’s 6.85 mark and is markedly better that Jurrjens’ 5.72 or Tomlin’s 4.81.  Could it be that a pitcher’s ability to rack up K’s could determine whether he will crash back to the mean or simply begin to pitch as he should have all along?

Someone much smarter and with access to more sortable information would have to examine the question further in order to find a definitive answer.  But it does seem to make some amount of sense to me that pitchers who can get more outs via something they can control (the strikeout) would be more likely to avoid a full regression to the mean and rather simply be all that SIERA says they can be.

Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.

The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  8
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  11
12. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  12
13. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  13
14. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  15
16. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |81.4% owned |Last week: 17
17. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.9% owned | Last week:  18
18. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  16
19. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  19
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week:  20
21. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 92.0% owned | Last week: 26
22. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 95.5% owned | Last week: 28
23. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  27
24. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  22
25. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 23
26. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 98.6% owned | Last week:  30
27. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  31
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  24
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  32
30. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 99.7% owned | Last week: 40
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  33
32. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  29
33. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 95.0% owned | Last week:  35
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  25
35. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.9% owned | Last week: 36
36. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 19.8% owned | Last week: 39
37. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 46
38. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.0% owned | Last week: 34
39. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 85.1% owned | Last week:  37
40. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  44
41. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 56.4% owned | Last week: 42
42. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 95.6% owned | Last week: NR
43. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 47
44. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 42.7% owned | Last week: NR
45. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |74.3% owned | Last week:  41
46. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.9% owned | Last week:  38
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 40.5% owned | Last week: 48
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.5 % owned | Last week: NR
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 65.7% owned | Last week: NR
50. Edwin Jackson | St. Louis Cardinals | 39.9% owned| Last week: 45

Out this week:  Juan Nicasio, Scott Baker, Chris Narveson, Jhoulys Chacin

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is a terrible Rangers fan because he gets all giddy when Alexi Ogando has a bad start.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.


(August 8, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)

Just a fair warning, this intro has absolutely nothing to do with pitching this week.  Feel free to skip it and get straight to the top 50 rankings.

The significance of batting order is something that has been debated frequently by baseball nerds. At this point in the discussion, it is pretty much agreed upon that The Book’s method for setting the batting order is the best. The Book says the three best hitters should hit first, second and fourth (with slugging tending toward fourth and on-base tending toward first), the next two best hitters should hit third and fifth, and the rest should be slotted in the final four spots.

The optimal lineup supposedly produces five to fifteen runs per season more than a typical lineup. Ten runs is generally accepted as being worth about one win to a team, so on average an optimized lineup would give a team an extra win over the course of a season.

The debate then becomes whether this one win is significant. Fangraphs’ Matt Klaassen recently argued it is because, as the market continues to get smarter, market inefficiencies are becoming increasingly difficult to find. When added to a win or two gained by proper bullpen usage and platooning, the win added by using a proper lineup seems more significant.

It all adds up.

It’s kind of like how my parents never let me order a Coke growing up when we went out to eat. I couldn’t understand why $1.50 was a big deal, but over the course of 18 years, God knows how much money my parents saved because of that.

In the interest of adding another metaphorical $1.50 to the marginal wins calculation, I would like to propose a tweak to The Book’s batting order method.

On-base percentage is a factor to consider when picking a lead-off man, but OBP only calculates a player’s ability to get on base, regardless of which base they get to. However, when picking a leadoff man, it might be useful to know how often a player can get himself into scoring position. Let’s call this Scoring Position Percentage (SP%).

The only two ways to get into scoring position on your own are to hit a double or triple or to hit a single or draw a walk and then steal a bag. Wild pitches, advancing on another player’s hit, sacrifices, fielder’s choices, etc. do not count because the player is dependent on some variable out of their control to get them into scoring position.

My logic is that the guys hitting third and fourth tend to take more bases, so the runners on base should be able to take more bases. In other words, a runner on first is more likely to score if the batter gets an extra base hit, especially a home run (thank you, Captain Obvious).  On the other hand, a runner on first is less likely to come around to score if the batter is an OBP guy hitting singles and drawing walks.

Therefore, when the guy with the highest SP% leads off, the team has a better chance of scoring a run before the sluggers come to the plate.  If the OBP guy were to lead off and the SP% guy to hit second, you would be more likely to end up with two guys on base rather than one run already in by the time the sluggers hit.

With this order you would still have your OBP guy hitting in front of your sluggers, but you would also provide yourself with the best chance to drive in a run before you get to your sluggers.

I honestly have no way to test this theory, but in my mind it makes sense. Please feel free to leave a comment below if you have any thoughts on the matter or see any flaws in my thought process.

Alright, I realize none of that had anything to do with pitching, so let’s get to the rankings. Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point. The Top 50

1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 5

Saying Verlander is a workhouse is probably unnecessary as he has topped 200 innings in the previous four seasons (including his league leading 240 innings in 2009).  But this year he’s on pace to join an elite class of innings eaters.  In the last decade only four guys threw more than 250 innings in a regular season.  Those four are Roy Halladay (twice), Curt Schilling (twice), Randy Johnson, and Livan Hernandez (WTF?!?!).

Considering Verlander doesn’t have anything close to a 4.00 xFIP or sub-7.00 K/9 like Hernandez did in his grandiose innings eating performance, I think it’s safe to say that Verlander’s career arc should look more like the first three guys on that list.

5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  4
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  8
8. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 10
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  11
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  12
12. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  14
13. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  9
14. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  17
15. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  13
16. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  15
17. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |86.6% owned |Last week: 19

Anibal is coming off a horrible July where he posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.  So why move him up a couple of spots this week? 

Some other numbers from Anibal’s July:  10.13 K/9, 3.16 xFIP, .394 BABIP, 66.5 LOB%.

The skills were still there, but some bad luck made for a rough month.  I’d expect everything to back to normal for Sanchez soon.  And according to his season numbers, normal is something like a 2.99 SIERA and 9.00+ K/9.

18. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 94.2% owned | Last week:  22
19. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  18
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week:  20
21. Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | 88.4% owned | Last week: 32
22. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  16
23. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 24
24. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  23
25. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  21
26. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 84.9% owned | Last week: 30
27. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  28
28. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 92.3% owned | Last week: 25
29. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  26
30. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 96.4% owned | Last week:  27
31. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  29
32. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  34
33. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  31
34. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 47.2% owned | Last week: 33
35. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  39
36. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 89.5% owned | Last week: 46

Morrow is currently the 46th most owned starter in ESPN leagues, and I would love to see him be the 46th starter off the board on draft day next year.

The strikeout numbers are insane (10.69 K/9) and his walk rate has dropped over half a walk per nine to 3.46.  If the walk rate continues to improve, there is little doubt his ERA (4.58) will start looking more like his SIERA (3.01) and xFIP (3.16).

After two years where the roto numbers have not matched his peripheral numbers, maybe Morrow can be next year’s James Shields.

37. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 89.0% owned | Last week:  35
38. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.5% owned | Last week:  36
39. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 25.6% owned | Last week: 38
40. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 89.0% owned | Last week: 48
41. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |77.5% owned | Last week:  37
42. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 45.6% owned | Last week: 40
43. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 94.5% owned | Last week:  41
44. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  42
45. Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 39.9% owned| Last week: 47
46. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.2% owned | Last week: 49
47. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 50
48. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 38.4% owned | Last week: 44
49. Chris Narveson | Milwaukee Brewers | 11.5% owned | Last week: NR
50. Juan Nicasio | Colorado Rockies | 3% owned | Last week: NR

3.44 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.26 K/9, 3.17 K/BB.  With a normal BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB rate, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to be concerned about regression.  A 3% ownership percentage is way too low for that set of numbers.

Out this week:  Jair Jurrjens, Michael Pineda

I haven't thought Jurrjens was a top 50 caliber pitcher at any point this season.  Had I kept him in the top 50 this week he would have been the only pitcher on the list with a SIERA over 4.00.  He also would have been the only pitcher with a K/9 under 6.00.  I guess I just felt obligated to include a guy who was in the discussion to start the All-Star game somewhere on my list until he began to falter.  Well the faltering has begun.  Over his last four starts he has a 6.26 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 3.91 BB/9.  In addition to a lot of luck, Jurrjens early season success was due to good control.  Some regression was bound to happen anyway, but if it turns out the control was a mirage as well, Jurrjens could be in for a rough couple of months.

As for Pineda, he's off the list simply because there's a good chance we don't see much (if any) of him in September.  He's currently at 130 innings, which is nine shy of his innings total last year.  He's on pace for 195 innings which easily eclipses his 140-ish mark from last year.  In fact, the innings limiting process has already begun as Pineda (who last pitched Saturday) will essentially have his next start skipped and he'll go again either Monday or Tuesday of next week.  Pineda is a monster and he'll easily be included in the first edition of 'The Rubber, 2012,' but his value is diminished for the rest of this season.


All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who calculated the FIP for his player on Road to the Show this week.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(July 20, 2011 - Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images North America)

If you weren’t aware, there is occasionally a little innuendo involved in ‘The Rubber,’ which is to say that I occasionally like to reference the fact that the thing a pitcher stands on is also the slang term for a condom.

Well, my buddy Corey recently pointed out that no such euphemism has been made in several weeks.  What Corey was really trying to say by pointing that out was, “Quit taking yourself seriously.  Make more dick jokes.”

Ask and ye shall receive.

This week’s profiled pitchers will be compared to different condoms.  Screw euphemisms, this week we’re using metaphors.

Vance Worley (Philadelphia Phillies, 90% owned) is like the half full box of Lifestyles in the bottom drawer of my parent’s bathroom that has been untouched since I discovered it in 1999.  What I mean by that is that I’ve thought about using both that box of Lifestyles and Worley but have decided neither is worth the risk.

SIERA and xFIP[1] say that Worley’s ERA should be about two runs higher than it is.  His 1.19 WHIP must be sustained by an unsustainable .254 BABIP because his 3.75 BB/9 isn’t supporting that WHIP.  And only two of his 65 fly balls allowed have left the yard.  That won’t last.  His strand rate is 80%.  That won’t last either.

I would honestly rather use one of those ancient Lifestyles than put Worley in my lineup for the rest of the year.

AJ Burnett (New York Yankees, 72.6% owned) has a walk total that almost equals the number of condoms that Kramer got from Bob Sacamano.  Well actually his walk total is closer to the half gross of condoms that Kramer offered Elaine, but it’s still high enough to lead the league. 

Someone is going to have to explain to me why the guy who leads the league in walks is owned in almost three-quarters of ESPN leagues.  Especially when his ERA is over 4.00.  If you happen to be contributing to Burnett’s 72.6% ownership percentage, do yourself a favor and go out and add Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster.

Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers, 99.6% owned) is like those condoms with the desensitizing cream in them.  In other words, Lewis will get the job done for you, but his overall numbers may not be entirely pleasurable. 

After an extended rough start, Lewis seems to have righted the ship.  With one earned run less against Oakland on 7/9, Lewis would have seven straight quality starts.  He is 5-0 with a 9.25 K/9 and 0.90 WHIP over that span.  All that good work has essentially brought Lewis back to the mean.

So, going forward all things should be essentially equal for Colbyashi.  That means a 3.80-ish ERA with a decent-ish WHIP somewhere between 1.20 and 1.25 and a K/9 in the mid-eight range.

To get back to the metaphor, the high K/9 equals an orgasm, but the higher-than-average ERA equals the desensitizing cream.

James McDonald (Pittsburgh Pirates, 4.1% owned) is like a Magnum.  That big (strikeout) digit looks impressive, but isn’t much use without control. 

McDonald is striking out over a batter per inning over the last 30 days (28.2 IP).  However, his BB/9 is just over 3.00.  Not that there is anything wrong with that,[2] but his walk rate is likely to move back toward his 4.28 mark for the year.

So, there are certainly things to like about McDonald, but just know he won’t always be as good as his big strikeout total looks.

Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.

The Top 50

1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  6

With a gun to my head, if I had to pick one starter to own for the next ten years, I’d take Kershaw.

3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  2
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
5. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 5
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  11
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  7
9. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  9
10. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  13
12. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  12
13. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  8

I have a thing for Jered Weaver.  Unlike my boyfriend, Matt Garza, or my mistress, Chris Narveson, you might not know about my Weaver-love because there is little point in professing your man-love for a guy who is squarely in the Cy Young discussion.

I stated my belief in him when others doubted his breakout last year.  In my preseason column where I went on record with those that I loved and those I wasn’t touching, I said Weaver would again be a top ten pitcher this year.  And I was right.  But he’s doing it with more luck than he is skill.

That isn’t to say he’s not extremely skilled, but there’s definitely some regression coming.  His ERA-SIERA deferential is a negative is 1.64.  His HR/FB rate is a simply unsustainable 2.5%.  His strand rate is about 6% higher than what we’ve come to expect from Weaver.  His .249 BABIP might not seem so lucky if his K/9 was the same as last year, but it’s down almost two strikeouts per nine, so there’s regression coming there too.

I still love Jered Weaver, but it’s time for things to even out a little.  Sell while you can.

14. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  15
16. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  16
17. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  20
18. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  17
19. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |97.6% owned |Last week: 21
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week:  18
21. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  22
22. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.2% owned | Last week:  19
23. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  23
24. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 25

Even though he’s 100% owned, I still feel like Kennedy has quietly been having an excellent year.  3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, K/BB just over 3.00.  Between Kennedy and Hudson, the D’Backs have an excellent 1-2 punch to build around.

25. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 96.2% owned | Last week: 31
26. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  24
27. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 97.9% owned | Last week:  26
28. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  33
29. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  27
30. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 81.9% owned | Last week: 30
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  32
32. Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | 71.6% owned | Last week: 40
33. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 48.4% owned | Last week: 36
34. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
35. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 85.0% owned | Last week:  34
36. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  28
37. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |85.5% owned | Last week:  35
38. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 14.3% owned | Last week: 47
39. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  38
40. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 66.5% owned | Last week: 39
41. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 95.7% owned | Last week:  44
42. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 99.9% owned | Last week:  46
43. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 45
44. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 42.7% owned | Last week: 43

Dempster is making it more and more difficult to keep him in the top 50.  His peripherals have been saying he’s due for some significant positive regression for some time now, but it’s yet to happen.

I watched him pitch at Milwaukee tonight and was ready to boot him from the top 50 after three earned in the first.  But he recovered with five scoreless after that and ended up with a quality start.

My patience has certainly been tested, but for now I’m sticking with the belief that an xFIP and SIERA over a run and a half lower than his ERA, as well as a .331 BABIP and 67.3% strand rate, will bring good things soon.

45. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 95.7% owned | Last week: 41
46. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 98.7% owned | Last week: 37
47. Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 19.5% owned| Last week: 48
48. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 54.9% owned | Last week: 49
49. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers (for now) | 99.3% owned | Last week: NR
50. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 98.9% owned | Last week: NR

Out this week:  Trevor Cahill, Jordan Zimmermann

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas whose last twelve-pack of Trojan blues (two left) has lasted him almost a year at this point.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

[1] Which Matt Swartz has shown are clearly superior to FIP
[2]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ild8w0rHQU

(July 3, 2011 - Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images North America)

Today Draftstreet has a $500 guaranteed game for only $2 and a $2000 guaranteed game for $11 .  Click on the banner below to sign up for Draftstreet and you can get the 25% bonus by using the code "FIX".

“Wait on pitching” and “pitching is deep” are phrases frequently used in the preseason.  It may seem odd to bring this up as we are about 60% of the way through the season, but the current state of starting pitching provides an excellent opportunity to drive this point home. 

Twenty-two qualifying pitchers have an ERA under 3.00 at the moment.  Thirty-six have a WHIP of 1.20 or less. Twenty-nine have a K/BB of 3.00 or better. Twenty-two are striking out more than eight batters per nine innings.  Need I go on?  Many, many guys are putting up well above-average numbers.

On top of all that, twenty-one of the top 50 pitchers on ESPN’s player rater were drafted in the 20th round or later.  Thirteen of those twenty-two weren’t drafted at all in ten-team mixed leagues.

The number of starters that are simply criminally under-owned at this point is further evidence of the depth that exists at the starting pitching position.  Here are a few of those guys, all of which could be useful, even if only as spot starters, in anything deeper than a ten-team mixed league.

Danny Duffy (Kansas City Royals, 0.2% owned)

Joe Sheehan tweeted this stat yesterday: Duffy has 29 K’s to just 6 BB’s over his last five starts (28.2 IP).  Duffy is definitely the guy on this list with the most risk, but he has been excellent at every level of the minors and has showed the ability to be moderately successful in the major leagues (4.26 SIERA[1], 7.44 K/9).

Felipe Paulino (Kansas City Royals, 0.4% owned)

His roto numbers don’t make Paulino look under-owned at only 0.4%, but the roto numbers are dead wrong on this one.  His ERA of 4.39 is not at all indicative of how he has pitched.  His SIERA is well over a run lower at an impressive 3.02.  His WHIP of 1.42 is just a result of bad luck as his walk rate is a very respectable 2.58, but his BABIP is a terribly unlucky .362.  Let’s also not forgot Paulino’s 8.66 K/9 and above average groundball rate of 49%.  Paulino has to be the most under-owned pitcher in baseball.

Brandon McCarthy (Oakland Athletics, 1.8% owned)

If you were going to try and poke holes in the “wait on pitching” draft strategy, one of your main arguments would have to be that it can be difficult to find guys that can help with ratios later in the draft.  And at this point in the season, or any point in the season really, the waiver wire isn’t exactly brimming with ratio help.  But Brandon McCarthy, along with his 3.64 ERA (3.58 SIERA) and 1.22 WHIP (1.43 BB/9), is widely available. 

Jeff Niemann (Tampa Bay Rays, 2.2% owned)

Over his last three starts (21.1 IP), Niemann has allowed just two earned runs with 19 strikeouts to six walks.  His next three starts are against Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle.  Do with that what you will.

Rubby de la Rosa (Los Angeles Dodgers, 5.8% owned)

3.83 SIERA, 9.54 K/9, 4.47 BB/9

Those aren’t de la Rosa’s numbers.  Those are Jonathan Sanchez’s numbers from last year.  Compare those numbers to de la Rosa this year.

3.74 SIERA, 8.67 K/9, 4.53 BB/9

I know people love them some Jonathan Sanchez, so why is de la Rosa only owned in 5.8% of leagues?

_________________________________________________________________________________
[1] SIERA is simply an ERA estimator like FIP and xFIP.  If you’re not familiar with ERA estimators, they are tools that attempt to say what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on how he has pitched, not based on things he can’t control.  The further an ERA estimator is below a pitcher’s actual ERA, the more positive regression you can expect from that pitcher and vice-versa.  The guys over at Fangraphs are rolling out a five-part series on SIERA this week, and the first two segments have been borderline revolutionary for me.  Check it out.
_________________________________________________________________________________


Alright, let’s rank ‘em.  Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.

The Top 50

1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  4

I’ve had Lincecum at three all season primarily to avoid having the three Phillies atop my rankings.  But the triumvirate is dominating the pitching regime with three of the top five SIERA’s in the league.  Additionally, each has a K/9 over 8.00 and a BB/9 under 2.00.  How are the Phillies not winning it all with these three?

4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 6
5. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 8
6. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  9
7. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  3
8. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  5
9. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  7
10. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  11
12. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  12
13. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  13
14. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  14
15. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  16
16. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  17
17. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  15
18. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week:  20
19. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 95.3% owned | Last week:  21

Sticking with the theme of under-owned starters, what must my boyfriend Matt Garza do to be owned in every league?  Granted his stellar outing immediately preceding the break was disconcerting (2 IP, 6 ER), but if you throw that start out he has an ERA of 3.00 since returning from the DL. 

20. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  22
21. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins | 99.2% owned |Last week: 23
22. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  18
23. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week:  19
24. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  24
25. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 26
26. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 98.8% owned | Last week:  28
27. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  27
28. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  25
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  29
30. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 99.6% owned | Last week: 38
31. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 92.6% owned | Last week: 36
32. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  30
33. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  34
34. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 86.9% owned | Last week:  42
35. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |96.7% owned | Last week:  35
36. Bud Norris | Houston Astros | 61.8% owned | Last week: 40

Again, criminally under-owned.  What am I missing here?  Norris is striking out more than a batter per inning, has a respectable ERA of 3.59 ERA (3.43 SIERA), and doesn’t look to be subject to regression in BABIP, strand rate or home run rate.  It’s possible the improved control might not be completely for real, but if that’s the only knock on Norris, the 61.8% ownership percentage is not justified.

37. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 95.0% owned | Last week: 41
38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  37
39. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 78.4% owned | Last week: 39
40. Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | 70.2% owned | Last week: 31
41. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 32
42. Jordan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals | 100% owned | Last week: 33
43. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 50.3% owned | Last week: 47
44. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week:  48
45. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 44
46. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 99.9% owned | Last week:  43
47. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 14.3% owned | Last week: 49
48. Trevor Cahill | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  46
49. Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 13.6% owned| Last week: 50
50. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 52.5% owned | Last week: NR

Out this week:  Justin Masterson  

Masterson went 7.2 scoreless last night and lowered his ERA to 2.64.  So why take him out of the top 50 following that performance?  Masterson’s peripheral numbers indicate he’s more of a 3.50 ERA guy than he is a 2.64 guy.  If you projected even less regression that that and expected Masterson to end up as a 3.30 guy, he would have to be a plus-4.00 ERA pitcher from here on out to regress back to that point.

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is criminally under-owned by the single women in his town.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(June 24, 2011 - Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images North America)