2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Welcome to The Fantasy Fix's 2011 Stock Market Watch for Fantasy Baseball. Each week Tyler Becker will pick four players on the rise and four on the decline. Hopefully this list will make you stinking filthy rich! On the Rise Casey Blake - This week, Blake has stepped up his game and improved his batting average from .269 on April 16th to .333 today. In these seven days, Blake has 9 R/2 HR/7 RBI/.400 AVG, with his two homeruns coming in the past three days. Blake has typically been a decent utility option for deeper leagues during his career. Especially for a guy who could become eligible at several positions down the road (1B, 3B, OF), Blake is a solid option in leagues that do not use FAAB or allow several pick-ups per week. (5% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Mitch Moreland - Since game three of the season, Moreland has kept his batting average above .280, and now bats .315 with his latest hitting surge upon him. This past week, Moreland has hit two homeruns with six runs batted in, while scoring four times. His hot streak is possibly credited to Hamilton’s absence, and with (1B, OF) eligibility, Moreland is a waiver wire stud suitable for any team. (23% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Brandon McCarthy - One of the four remarkable starters for the A’s thus far has been 6-foot-7 Brandon McCarthy, who is proving his stuff each and every game. Despite going 0-1 in his last two starts, McCarthy has allowed one earned run (a solo homerun) in 14.2 innings pitched. Even more enticing is his 6.67 K/BB rate, ranked 5th in all of baseball. If McCarthy is available in your league, and you can be comfortable dropping someone in exchange, definitely go out there and get this strikeout honcho for your staff. (15% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Mitchell Boggs - The Cards apparently new closer position has seemed to be filled by Boggs. He has successfully closed two games since the firing of Ryan Franklin from his job as the St. Louis finisher too. For the beginning of the year, when Boggs was used as a setup guy, he had 12 K’s in just eight innings of work. However, he has only struck out one batter since being pegged the closer. Basically, you want saves out of your closer, and any extra strikeouts are a great bonus. For Boggs, as long as he gets batters out and closes games for big-man Tony La Russa, he should be added to your team. Hope to see his nice K/9 rate return as a closer too… unless you didn’t pick him and are facing him next week. (49% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Free Fallin’ Alex Rios - If you thought you were safe drafting a 90 R/20 HR/90 RBI/30 SB/.280 AVG hitter, think again. Rios has struggled the entire year, and is currently going through his worst week to date. This past week, Rios has gone hitless in 20 at bats, with six strikeouts and just two walks. On the year, he is batting .160 with no homeruns and has not batted a teammate in since April 8th. Rios owners should absolutely be concerned at this point. If you own him: sell for any talented guy with some security in him. Non-owners: stay away. (90% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Jimmy Rollins - Signs were looking good for J-Roll this year. He started the season off swiping some bags and getting on base regularly. Things have changed a bit over the past week or so for the Philly shortstop. Rollins’ batting average has fallen to .253 from .320 since April 14th. Also, he has only stole once in his past 13 games. His best skill is dwindling down, just like the number of Rollins owners. Some may look at his potential and start of 2011 as positive signs, but I see a waning fantasy shortstop unable to provide quality numbers. (98% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Mark Reynolds - Potential 2011 sleeper Mark Reynolds seems to be taking his title quite literally. He might as well be asleep at the plate, hitting well below the Mendoza Line and failing to reach base even. In his career, Reynolds was a guy that could get on base, even with his fatal batting averages. In 2011, though, Reynolds has a .268 OBP, and is already on pace for another year of disappointing owners. Before this season, Reynolds was decent at reaching base, maintaining at least a .320 OBP throughout his career. This season’s abysmal rate is just another sign for an unproductive Reynolds with his new club in Baltimore. (83% owned in Yahoo! leagues) Francisco Liriano - Coming off his 201 K year last season, Liriano was highly sought after by some fantasy enthusiasts. Lucky for their friends who avoided Mr. Liriano, he has been a complete disaster in four starts this season. Posting a 1-3 record and 7.40 ERA, Liriano has had control difficulties (14 BB in 20.2 IP) and an inability to go deep into the game (longest outing was a 6.1 inning victory against the Orioles). Liriano owners may remain optimistic, but even in his Baltimore outing Liriano walked five batters and only struck out two. It will be tough for Liriano to regain control and become a fantasy stud this year, so buyers should proceed with caution, and owners may want to begin to skim over your league’s trading block. (92% owned in Yahoo! leagues) (April 9, 2011 - Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images North America) Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com Follow Tyler on Twitter @fantasyprodigy for his fantasy baseball news and notes. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Stock Market Watch, Tyler Becker, Brandon McCarthy, Casey Blake, Mitch Moreland, Mitchell Boggs, Alex Rios, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Reynolds, Francisco Liriano Add Comment  Welcome to The Fantasy Fix's 2011 Stock Market Watch for Fantasy Baseball. Each week Tyler Becker will pick four players on the rise and four on the decline. Hopefully this list will make you stinking filthy rich! On the Rise Zach Britton (Baltimore Orioles, SP) 25.7% owned In first place in the American League East, the Orioles are feeling all warm and fuzzy with their new, young team. 23-year old Zach Britton has really shown everyone his best stuff after he was called up to start for the injured Brian Matusz. Britton has made two starts for the O’s this year, and now boasts a 2-0 record with a 0.66 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Yes, it is not just early in the year to predict the season he will have, but also early in his career. If Britton is available in your league, and your pitching staff is rather shallow, Britton could be a key guy to pick up some wins and give you quality innings pitched. Ben Francisco (Philadelphia Phillies, RF) 54.3% owned The 6-2 Phillies have had an impressive 2011 offense thus far. The team’s 7.0 R/G (runs per game) average is first in all of baseball, and leading the pack is right fielder Ben Francsico. In eight games this year, Francisco has seven runs, two home runs, seven runs batted in, and a .333 average in 33 at bats. His strong finish in 2010 was a nice indicator as well, hitting five home runs in 40 Post-All Star break games (a pace of about 20 HR in 160 games). If your team could use a solid outfielder, go and grab Francisco from the waiver wire. With the rest of the Phillies’ potent offense, Francisco could continue his success for the remainder of the season. Ike Davis (New York Mets, 1B) 98.3% owned While the Mets’ off-field issues still loom, The Amazins’ first baseman, Ike Davis, has had no problems hitting the ball. Davis is leading the Mets in RBI’s with nine so far, and is batting .345 in 29 at bats. Don’t expect his average to stay in the mid-.300 range, but you can expect his RBI total and high on base percentage to stay with him the entire year. Matt Harrison (Texas Rangers, SP) 28% owned For the beginning of the 2011 season, the Texas Rangers have been nearly perfect, going 7-1 while scoring the third most runs per game (6.88) and recording the third best team ERA (2.79) in all of baseball. Matt Harrison is emerging as an absolute ace for the Rangers starting rotation. The lines for his first two starts are below, and quite impressive to say the least. April 3 vs. Boston: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K April 9 at Baltimore: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K On the Decline Casey McGehee (Milwaukee Brewers, 3B) 100% owned McGehee is off to a slow start, looking like anything but his 2010 self that hit 23 home runs and knocked in 104 runs. Currently, he is hovering the Mendoza line and has yet to clear the fences. Also, his sole run scored this year is basically a clear sign of another year with a low run total, mirroring his 58 runs in 2009 and 70 runs in 2010. McGehee is failing to get on base, get runners to score, and hit the long ball, and it could be a matter of time before he is deemed irrelevant in the 2011 fantasy season. Ben Zobrist (Tampa Bay Rays, 2B/OF) 100% owned Disaster has struck in Tampa Bay as the Rays’ offense is in dead last, only scoring an average of 2.38 runs per game. Ben Zobrist, the Rays’ second baseman and utility man, is dealing with his own hitting problems as well. Hitting .167 with one home run and two RBI, Zobrist is continuing his year-to-year downward trend in 2011. His Post-All Star numbers could possibly have been a predictor for this season’s poor start, as he hit .177 with only five steals in 67 games. Coming into 2011, Zobrist was a top-10 second baseman, now, he is slowly becoming a burnt out fantasy option for all leagues. Matt Garza (Chicago Cubs, SP) 100% owned The good news, Garza has the most strikeouts in baseball. The bad news, he has yet to record a win and has a bloated ERA (5.68) and WHIP (1.82). The Cubby newcomer is struggling in his starts. Optimists look at his 6.67 K/BB ratio (20 K and 3 BB) and see a dominant arm on the mound, but realists can’t seem to ignore the fact that Garza has let up eight runs in just under 13 IP. If you are a Garza owner, ask yourself which side you fall on: the optimists, or the realists? Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers, SP) 100% owned If you look at Scherzer’s record, you’ll see two wins in two starts. Take a closer look and you can see his 5.73 ERA and nine strikeouts. Similarly to Garza, Scherzer has only walked four batters, so control issues are not the immediate problem. He entered the year, however, with many fantasy owners eyeing him on draft day. As of now, these Scherzer-enthusiasts are not too pleased. Along with his next start against the red-hot Texas Rangers, Scherzer might have a difficult time rebounding after an unsuccessful start in 2011. Percentages obtained from ESPN.com Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com Follow Tyler on Twitter @fantasyprodigy for his fantasy baseball news and notes. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (March 6, 2011 - Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Stock Market Watch, Tyler Becker, Zach Britton, Ben Francisco, Ike Davis, Matt Harrison, Casey McGehee, Ben Zobrist, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer In our newest installment of the Draft Day Debate, we look at two of the top first basemen, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. Votto is coming off an MVP year while Gonzalez seems set for his best year yet in the Red Sox offensive powerhouse. While undoubtedly fantasy owners will choose Albert Pujols first off the board and first for 1B, who will be the better pick as the second 1B to go? You decide...  The Case for Joey Votto by Tyler Becker If you haven’t participated in your draft already, you will eventually notice the incredible depth at first base this year. There are about seven first basemen ranked in the top 20 overall players, so taking one of these guys means spending your first or second round pick. With this investment, you better be getting what you paid for in fantasy baseball terms. That means runs, power, average, and maybe even some steals thrown in. One of this season’s first basemen, who will give you each of the previously mentioned, is Joey Votto, Cincinnati’s 27-year old star first basemen. Votto had a breakout year in 2010, hitting .324 with 37 home runs, knocking in 113, scoring 106 runs, and swiping 16 bags. He was also one of only nine players in all of baseball to score 100 runs and record 100 RBI last year. In addition to his stellar 2010 season, Votto has had a steady progression in almost every statistic since 2008. Below are Votto’s lines from his 2008, 2009, and 2010 season. 2008 (151 GP): 69 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB, .297 AVG, .874 OPS 2009 (131 GP): 82 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG, .981 OPS 2010 (150 GP): 106 R, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 16 SB, .324 AVG, 1.024 OPS Votto will certainly not continue at this pace, but he can definitely stay around his 2010 numbers. Most of the Reds’ last year supporting cast will be in the lineup in 2011, and with the emergence of Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce as offensive threats in the outfield, Votto could potentially see an increase in runs and RBI this year. To go along with his steadiness, Votto is a reliable fantasy stud year-round. His pre and post All-Star break numbers are chillingly consistent as you can see below: Career Pre-All Star: 819 AB, 131 R, 46 HR, 142 RBI, 13 SB, .310 AVG, .942 OPS Career Post-All Star: 807 AB, 137 R, 44 HR, 156 RBI, 15 SB, .318 AVG, .974 OPS Votto exemplifies the top tier first baseman that is ideal for your fantasy lineup. Especially with the extra speed you get with him, Votto gives you consistency, confidence, and elite status with a first or second round selection. Looking at Adrian Gonzalez, his move to Boston and Fenway Park is a great change. Basically, just getting out Petco Park is a plus for him. However, I like Votto significantly more than Adrian this year. Gonzalez is going within the first two rounds of drafts this year, but is less of an all-around player than Votto. Adrian has only reached the .300 AVG mark once in his career, and the .400 OBP mark once as well (Votto’s OBP in 2009 and 2010 were .414 and .424 respectively). Gonzalez has also had minor shoulder discomfort coming off surgery. It is unlikely to impact him during the regular season, but a late start to spring training could mean a couple of more weeks than expected to settle into Boston’s lineup and get comfortable with his new surroundings and transition to the American league. Votto has proved himself as a top three first baseman, and a sure thing top-10 player overall. Even if you see no increase in production from Votto this year, he is undoubtedly capable of putting up his 2010 numbers once again. I’m on “Team Votto” in 2011. (February 23, 2010 - Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images North America)  The Case for Adrian Gonzalez by Nick Polak The Red Sox are a team that every opposing pitcher is going to look at and fear this year, there’s simply no denying it (besides those select Yankee fans that still think their lineup is better). The fact is, the Red Sox will be putting out a lineup that will presumably look something like the following… CF- Jacoby Ellsbury LF- Carl Crawford 2B- Dustin Pedroia 1B- Adrian Gonzalez 3B- Kevin Youkilis DH- David Ortiz RF- J.D. Drew SS- Marco Scutaro C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (One of my favorite names in sports) This lineup just SCREAMS playoff (and possibly further) potential. The Sox undoubtedly made the biggest waves this offseason when they brought in Crawford and Gonzalez to anchor this frighteningly powerful lineup. In doing so, they not only made themselves a far better team, but they helped to put Adrian Gonzalez near the top of the list of “America’s Next Top First Basemen” (ABC, NBC, and FOX are all currently considering it for primetime). This season will be entering uncharted territory for A-Gon, as he has never had any offensive support more notable than Kevin Kouzmanoff in his career (debatably). Not to mention that he played half of his games at the famously, spacious Petco Park. Yet despite all of these excuses for Gonzalez to be nothing more than an average baseball player, he has consistently been a monster. He’s been averaging around 35 home runs, 105 RBI and around a .285 average over the past four seasons. Consider those things when you now factor in the idea that he will be playing in a hitter-friendly park (especially for lefties), along with the fact that several elite offensive players from all different angles will now surround him. Not to mention, he’s only 28 years old. Even with A-Gon nursing an injury this spring, he’s going to be fine for opening day, and don’t be surprised to see a stat line that reads something like .290 AVG, with 35+ HR and 110+ RBI. Now, don’t get me wrong, Joey Votto is another potent offensive talent that is not to be taken lightly. You really can’t go wrong with drafting either of these phenomenal first basemen, so don’t be too distraught if you miss out on A-Gon, because taking Votto is a wonderful consolation prize. However, if presented with the choice, fantasy owners should be heading down the A-Gon path this season. His new upside potential is simply too massive to ignore. (February 19, 2011 - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America) Comment and cast your vote on which player will be better this year, or who won the Gonzalez vs. Votto debate. One person will be randomly selected to win a free Fantasy Fix Draft Guide (valued at $0.99).  Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, Draft Day Debate, Tyler Becker, Nick Polak, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox There won't be many drafts where Roy Halladay is not be the first overall starting pitcher chosen. We know that he can blank any opponent and even on his off-days, still has a shot for a win backed by an offensive Philadelphia roster. The real question though is, who do you take as the 2nd starting pitcher off the board? Although there are many excellent choices, only two young guns really deserve consideration… Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez. This Draft Day Debate just may not have a clear cut answer. You decide.  The Case for Tim Lincecum by Tyler Becker Ranked #2 Starting Pitcher in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit Do you look for 210+ innings of work from a starting pitcher? How about more than 15 wins in a season? What does a reliable ERA mean to you? And wouldn’t you like to have more than 230 strikeouts from the ace of your staff? Well, Tim Lincecum fantasy owners can always say yes to these questions. Not just for last season, but for each of his three full-length years in the pros. Lincecum has been an elite starter for the past three years. He consistently provides solid and above-average fantasy production, as he is entering his prime years. Even with Lincecum’s “down” year last season (212.1 IP, 16-10, 231 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), he was baseball’s third best in strikeouts, and finished two spots outside the top 20 fantasy starters in standard leagues. Looking ahead in 2011, I expect Lincecum to get back to his top-10 fantasy pitcher numbers. Especially with a strong finish to the 2010 season, he is in line to have a nice start for next year. In September, he went 5-1 in six starts, striking out 52 in 41.1 innings, while posting a 1.94 ERA and only allowing eight walks. He just seemed to turn on the gas and regain form at the end. His turnaround was pretty amazing after going 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA in August. With San Francisco’s effective hitting providing support for Lincecum, his record will not be a concern for fantasy owners, making him an even better option in leagues with wins and losses as categories. What’s even more appealing is his consistent strikeout production. Despite being edged by one strike out last year, Lincecum is practically a sure thing for 230-260 K’s. Hernandez, on the other hand, has been a little sporadic with his punch-outs. In his first full three seasons, King Felix failed to reach 200 K’s. Also, given Seattle’s lackluster offense, wins will once again come sparingly for Hernandez this season. Not to mention Felix’s desire to be the most successful pitcher in baseball, there could be heated pressure on all of Seattle this year (the best means you gotta win some games… not just have a stellar ERA). If you take either of these guys this year, you’re getting an elite pitcher no matter what. It just comes down to security when you spend an early pick on one of them. I’d like to know I am getting a high strikeout, high win, low ERA guy with such an early pick. And I don’t think Hernandez can satisfy all three of those requirements, as long as he’s playing in that rainy, coffee infested city they call Seattle. (February 23, 2009 - Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America)  The Case for Felix Hernandez by Nick Polak Ranked #3 Starting Pitcher in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit Doesn’t everyone deserve a second chance? And shouldn’t this rule also apply to say...an entire baseball team? More specifically, to one of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball history? If you are one of those good and just people that believe this, then you agree that the putrid Seattle Mariners 2010 offense deserves a second chance. And if you agree with that, then you are going to put yourself in great position to give yourself one of the top pitching staffs in your fantasy league this year, thanks to the dominance of “The King” Felix Hernandez. Felix Hernandez has been trending up (and down in certain stats) over the last three years in nearly every meaningful pitching stat that you will obsess about for these glorious five months or so. One can’t argue with the following trends… 2008 – 3.45 ERA / 1.39 WHIP / 175 SO / 200.2 IP 2009 – 2.49 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 217 SO / 238.2 IP 2010 – 2.27 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 232 SO / 249.2 IP As you probably noticed however, I have left The King’s Wins off of this list. Well those have gone 9, 19, 13 from 2008-2010 respectively. Weird huh? Well as one would expect, The King’s win totals have been very dependent on his team (most specifically his offense). When you take a look back at the last three years for the Mariners as a team, their win totals have gone from 61 in 2008, to 85 in 2009, back to 61 in 2010. It’s hard to win games as a pitcher when your offense refuses to score any runs for you. In ten of Felix’s losses last year, the Mariners only scored him ten total runs in those games. There were also more than a few games in which he left the game when the game was either tied, or he had a lead, only to see the bullpen blow his effort into the air. But then, even amongst the lack of support he received, he was able to put up 13 wins, including a 3-0 record against the Yankees with a 0.35 ERA in those starts. More encouraging news for Felix is that the Mariners offense is bound to improve (because they just can’t be any worse), they managed to improve their defense yet again (with the addition of Brendan Ryan at 2B or SS, Jack Wilson returning to health, and Michael Saunders in LF spelling the cancerous Milton Bradley), and they still play in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, with the spacious Safeco Field. Now obviously, having Tim Lincecum is nobody’s worst nightmare. Getting either him or Felix on your team would be simply phenomenal and will help your fantasy efforts. Lincecum will surely give you 15+ wins, 215+ SO, and a nice ERA. That being said, I think Felix presents the more upside due to the fact that all it will take to add wins to his list of elite stats, is the offense only marginally improving.  Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tips, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, Draft Day Debate, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernanadez, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, AL East, NL West, Tyler Becker, Nick Polak  Our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit is finally here and although it's dirt cheap, 99 cents, we felt our fans would want a sneak peak at some of the great content that the guide boasts. Not only did our writers rank players at every position, the guide also contains a mock draft with round by round & team analysis, sleepers, busts, closer report and more! Here's a sneak at the 2011 Closer Report from our fantasy prodigy, Tyler Becker... Closers are always a concern for all sorts of drafts. Some people wait for the last rounds to grab their save guys, and others like to start the trend and get the elite ones. I’m more of a late round person. Usually, there is still talent on the board and potential closers left. For 2011, I won’t be taking a closer until my offensive starting roster slots are filled, and my main two starting pitchers are secured. Closers are the same this year: the elite, the average, the guys in line, and the guys about to lose their job. This piece is for those closers who are making strides towards 9th inning work, as well as the closers whose numbers are weakening. On the rise, in our eyes: John Axford (Milwaukee Brewers) Besides his kick-ass mustache, his fantasy production was terrific last season. Axford recorded 24 saves last season, while going 8-2 with 76 strikeouts in 56 IP. Keep in mind the save-superstar, Trevor Hoffman, was with Milwaukee last season, and took away about 20 save opportunities from Axford. In the second half of 2010, he pitched 32 innings with a 1.97 ERA and 44 strikeouts. Even though Takashi Saito is in the picture, Axford is the clear-cut closer and could see 35+ saves this year plus come close to 100 K’s. Chris Perez (Cleveland Indians) Friend of The Fix (read the interview), Chris Perez, is on the rise for 2011. His Post-All Star stats were ridiculous, going 28.2 innings strong, with a 0.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 16 saves. On the year, his K/9 ratio was 8.7, giving you a nice strikeout source at the closer spot. Without Kerry Wood taking (blowing) saves for the Indians, Perez looks like he has a nice year coming up. If the Indians can get a lead in some games, and give Perez the chance to close them out, we could expect a top-10 closer fantasy year. Drew Storen (Washington Nationals) The Nats’ 2009 first rounder didn’t see much action last season, but expect that to change with Matt Capps out of Washington and Storen looking like the opening day closer. The Nationals are anxious for him to make an impact on the team, meaning Tyler Clippard should remain a middle reliever, taking less pressure off Storen and his fantasy owners. As a reliever last season, he pitched 55.1 innings with 52 K’s and a 3.58 ERA. He should also be able to re-take the closer role comfortably. With only two blown saves last year (one was a walk-off home run to Jayson Werth, now his teammate), Storen will get his real first shot at becoming an elite closer in 2011. Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!  Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Sleepers, Busts, Closers, John Axford, Chris Perez, Drew Storen  With the 26th ranked ERA in the majors last year, the Brew Crew went to work this off-season to improve their rotation. Sought-after pitcher Zack Greinke is coming off a disappointing 2010, but was last year truly a fluke? Or will the Newer Brewer Shaun Marcum outpitch Greinke this season? It sure is getting exciting in Milwaukee this year. Baseball’s 2009 AL Cy Young winner is heading to the National League. Greinke will take his 2008 and 2009 stellar years with him to Milwaukee to take on the rest of the NL Central. Greinke owners were annoyed all year by his shoddy numbers and lack of production. He went 10-14 in 220 IP with a 4.17 ERA and 181 strikeouts. What we can take away from last season was his strikeouts, low home run total, and consistent walk rate. Greinke was able to strikeout more that 180 batters last season, and also allowed less than 20 home runs despite his 4.17 ERA. Along with his 55 walks (56 in 2008 and 51 in 2009), it looks like Greinke can definitely rebound and have a successful 2011 season. I think Greinke will be a top-20 pitcher this year, and can possibly see 17 or 18 wins if Milwaukee’s offense can come alive. Milwaukee’s second ace of the rotation is Yovani Gallardo. The 25-year-old stud is entering 2011 with two consecutive great seasons under his belt. Gallardo’s 2009 and 2010 were very similar in terms of numbers, but the best part is his health. The injury bug has plagued him for a few seasons in his career, but Gallardo seems to be healthier than ever and ready to go. He has serious potential to be a top-20 starter in 2011. One concern is his poor performance after the All Star break last season. Even though he went 6-3, Gallardo’s ERA was 5.77 after the break. I think we can expect another solid year from him though. He should be able to get 14 wins, 200 strikeouts, a 3.70 ERA, and 185 IP once again. One of the Brewers’ newest arrivals is starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. He missed all of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. This sure didn’t stop him last season. Marcum had his best season of his career in 2010 going 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. Marcum was a solid fantasy pitcher throughout the season, and in his career against the National League, he has a 3.36 ERA. I think Marcum will be able to easily adjust into the NL Central and be a strong fantasy play in 2011. I see him ranked in the top-40 for mixed leagues, and a solid number two starter in NL-only leagues. Randy Wolf will return for another year with Milwaukee, and for fantasy owners, that’s another year of staying away from this veteran pitcher. Wolf is a guy that will give you a bloated ERA and minimal strikeouts. Last season was his worst K/9 year with only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings (career K/9 average of 7.3). Wolf also gave up 29 home runs and 87 walks last season, both the highest of his 13-year career. Even though Wolf might win double-digit games again, he’s just fantasy garbage from now on. If you are in an NL-only league, there’s a chance you find use out of him in the last few rounds. But I am extremely down on Wolf this year and will not be drafting him in any of my leagues. Likely serving as Milwaukee’s fifth starter, Chris Narveson will look to build off his impressive 2010 second half. After the All Star break, Narveson went 5-3 in 81 IP with a 3.89 ERA. It will be a stretch for him to be a top-100 pitcher this season, but with those numbers for a full season you can argue Narveson as a potential mixed-league starter. Although Manny Parra has seen multiple starts for the Brewers recently, I think Narveson will win that fifth spot and hold onto it. Manny Parra seems to be headed to the bullpen where he belongs. In the 16 games Parra started, only three of them were quality starts, while his average amount of innings per start was 5.3 IP. I really don’t see Parra becoming a starter again anytime soon, especially with the surprising success he had as a reliever. He didn’t allow a single run in his last nine games of the season (13.2 IP, 19 K, 7 BB). He looks like a lock to be in the Brewers’ bullpen for 2011, giving an even greater edge to the possibility of Narveson’s as the team’s fifth starter. Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings?Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy Want to read Tyler's other National League Central previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Cincinatti Reds! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Milwaukee Brewers, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo  This upcoming season for Astros pitchers will be an interesting one for fantasy owners. With Brett Myers’ 2010 success, a strong second half from Wandy Rodriguez, and J.A. Happ’s potential, Houston has a chance to showcase three top-100 starters this year. In his first season with Houston, Brett Myers had one of the best years of his career. He successfully took over the role as ace of the rotation, especially with Oswalt’s move to Philly. Myers (2010: 14-8, 223.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 180 K) was able to stay healthy and even went 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home. Last season may be considered a fluke to some, but I am a Myers believer. Entering 2011 he should be ranked in the mid to high twenties. His ERA may go up a little, but the strikeouts, wins, and fantastic home field benefit will be there as long as he can remain healthy. I’d like to find out how many fantasy owners dropped Wandy Rodriguez half way through the 2010 season. As a Rodriguez owner myself, there were a few times of yelling at my computer while glaring up and cursing Wandy to the heavens above… but I digress. Wandy was able to turn his season around. After the All Star break, he went 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 93.2 innings pitched. The second half of last season was the Rodriguez we are all used to seeing. Rodriguez’s post-All Star stats to continue into 2011, and he can be your team’s solid third starter. Expect him to get around 14 wins while posting a mid-3.00 ERA. Houston’s third starter, J.A. Happ, made 16 starts in 2010 and seemed to fit nicely in his new role with the Astros. His 2010 totals (Philadelphia and Houston) include a 5-4 record with a 3.40 ERA. Looking forward to 2011, Happ needs to pitch further into games to be a solid fantasy play. Only going seven innings or more in two of his 16 starts proved to be detrimental to his fantasy value. Happ does has the Minute Maid home field advantage, going 4-1 with 38 strikeouts in 44.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA, so fantasy owners can use this to their benefit. Expect Happ to be a fourth or fifth starter in most mixed leagues, and possibly see 13 wins, a 7.0 K/9 ratio, and an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50. Bud Norris is pretty much locked in as the Astros fourth starting pitcher. I wouldn’t say because of his skills, but rather the lack of other options Houston has at pitching. Norris is an NL-only starter this year. With the depth at starting pitcher this year, mixed leagues have much more options, and one shouldn’t waste a mix league pitcher on Norris. In his two season career, he averages more than four walks a game and just under five runs per game. Along with Houston’s weak offense and low run support, the pieces just don’t seem to fit for a productive 2011. Besides NL-only leagues, I can only see Norris effective in one other situation. If it’s the end of the week, you’ve already conceded ERA and WHIP, but have a shot at winning strikeouts, and Norris happens to be pitching on a Saturday or Sunday, he’s a guy that could get you five or more strikeouts even in a loss. The chances are reasonably low that these circumstances fall into place, but it may be something to consider at desperate times. (If you play in a rotisserie league, I would just stay away from Norris all together) Houston… We Have a Problem (Outside Pitchers Looking In) Nelson Figueroa: Found success with Houston last year going 5-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 7.8 K/9. He will enter spring training with a definite chance of taking over the fifth spot in the rotation. This is a guy with years of experience, recent success in the National League, and the ability to consistently get to the sixth, seventh, or later innings of a game. Concerns exist with his age (36) and high walk rate, but he has a great chance of becoming Houston’s fifth starter. Ryan Rowland-Smith: Has a shot of winning the job, but lack of NL experience and last season’s numbers are a definite drawback. Rowland-Smith’s 2009 was successful (5-4, 96.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) so winning games as a starter isn’t unfamiliar to him. He is a different pitcher than the other Astros (Rowland-Smith not a strikeout pitcher), but this could be appealing to Houston to round out the rotation. I think it might be a stretch for him to get the fifth spot, but it is certainly not out of the question. Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy Want to read Tyler's other National League Central previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Chicago Cubs, Cincinatti Reds! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Houston Astros, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris  Johnny Cueto Last season Cincinnati was able to make the playoffs after 15 years of missing the post-season. Led by 17 game winner Bronson Arroyo, the Reds’ pitchers were a big part to the team’s success. Once again made up of some young guns, the 2011 Reds will look to get into the post-season for two straight seasons. Reds’ Veteran Bronson Arroyo has been a successful starter in four of his five seasons with Cincinnati. In the last two seasons, Arroyo’s strikeouts have decreased by about 30-40. However, while his punch-outs have declined, his ERA has also gone down in 2009 and 2010, posting ERA’s in the high-3.00 range (in 2007 and 2008, his ERA was 4.23 and 4.77 respectively). In 2011, we can most likely expect the recent Arroyo, the one with around 16 wins, 125 K’s, a 3.85 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 60 BB. Cincinnati’s second starter, Johnny Cueto, had a terrific start to 2010. Going 8-2 with 79 strike outs and a 3.42 ERA, Cueto looked to be in line for a stellar year. In the final two months of the season, though, he went 4-5 with a similar K/9, ERA, and WHIP. Cueto continues to be a productive fantasy starter, averaging a 12-12 record, 196 IP, 4.27 ERA, 158 K, and 1.35 WHIP in three full seasons with the Reds. His 12 no-decisions was among the most in the majors (leaders had 13), so the chance of Cueto winning 15+ games is a definite possibility in the near future. It’s hard to say Cueto will gain elite status, especially with the extreme depth of pitchers this year, but Cueto can certainly play a role on your team’s roster, and serve as a solid number four or five guy.  Edinson Volquez For a guy who’s only played one full season in his six-year professional career, there is certainly a lot of hype with Edinson Volquez. And to tell you the truth, I’m buying into that hype. In 2008, his first year with Cincinnati after being traded by the Rangers, Volquez went 17-6 in 196 IP, posting a 3.21 ERA and striking out 206 batters. Recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2009, Volquez hasn’t had the right timing with his pitching. Also, a 50 game suspension last season sure could have contributed to his lack of production. This year Volquez seems to be healthy, ready, and out of trouble. It would be tough for Volquez to have the same or better numbers than 2008, but he definitely has potential to be a top 30 starter. If Volquez stays healthy, I could see a solid line of 15-10, 190 IP, 3.50 ERA, and 190 K. Cincinnati’s final two spots will be battled for among the Reds’ three other young arms. Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake will enter spring training unsure of their role. While a six man rotation is unorthodox nowadays, the talent each guy brings to the team is perhaps too valuable to waste in the bullpen or back in the minors. With no word yet from the Reds, here’s my take on the rest of Cincinnati’s rotation. Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s 2009 first round pick, quickly came to the majors, and even found success in the first half of the 2010 year. Leake went 6-1 with 79 strikeouts and a 3.53 ERA in 109.2 IP. But after the All Star break, the 22-year old threw a few stink bombs and ended up pitching in relief out of the bullpen during late August. He’ll certainly have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation this spring training, but at a young age and just having been drafted, there is definitely room for concern. If I had to predict how the Reds’ rotation would pan out, my eggs will not be found be in the Mike Leake basket. That leaves Homer Bailey and Travis Wood as the fourth and fifth starter. In his 19 starts, Bailey showed us his strikeout potential, striking out 100 batters in 109 innings. His post-All Star break numbers were strong (10 GS, 3-1, 58.1 IP, 59 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) despite missing all of June and July. Bailey’s difficulty to stay healthy and in the Reds’ rotation will determine his fantasy value. If he can make the rotation to start the season, he’ll be on a very short leash. An injury, string of bad starts, or just getting out played by a teammate could easily send Bailey back to the minors or the bullpen. Travis Wood didn’t spend much time in the majors last season, but entering 2011 he will be competing for the Reds’ fifth spot, and in my eyes, I see him getting it. Last year, Wood allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 17 starts. We can expect decent production from Wood. He may only be an NL-only player this year, but especially in keeper leagues he could be a nice late round pick. Looking at Wood’s 2009 and 2010 seasons in AAA Louisville, he went 9-8 in 24 starts and averaged a 3.09 ERA. He also averaged 7.9 K/9 while maintaining a low WHIP. Pitching in the majors will most likely show similar numbers to his seasons in AAA and last years Cincinnati Reds’ stats, but like his teammates, he’ll have to stay strong to earn his spot in the rotation. Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy Want to read Tyler's other National League East previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Chicago Cubs! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Cincinnati Reds, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey  Matt Garza Rise bleacher bums. Rise Ricketts family. Rise all you North siders. This is your time. This is Cubs baseball time! Sure, it’s been a little while since the Cubbies have won an NL Pennant, but I’m telling you, this is the year! The pieces are starting to come together, and it’s all happening with the pitching rotation. It will be pitching staple Ryan Dempster’s fourth season as a Cubs starter. Dempster has been a consistent and reliable pitcher in most fantasy leagues, and there are no signs of this changing. His 208 strikeouts was 12th in the majors, and 15 wins was among the national league’s best. However, Dempster has had control problems, and in 2010 he walked 86 batters, seventh most in all of baseball. The 2011 Cubbies should see more production with their offense, and starting pitchers will benefit. Dempster especially, who had the sixth most “tough losses” (losses in quality starts) with six games lost. Dempster will have similar numbers in 2011. I think the arrival of Garza takes some pressure off of him too. I see 16-8, 200 IP, 3.40 ERA, and 190 K for Dempster this season. Matt Garza has packed his bags and will join the Cubs for his first season in the National League. While I do think Garza will find success in Chicago, I don’t know for sure if he will throw his best stuff in 2011. He has little experience pitching against national league teams, and his career 4.63 ERA against the NL isn’t anything special. Also, he’ll have to get used to a couple of new things like playing outdoors in an actual baseball stadium. In his three years as a Rays starter, Garza’s ERA stayed in the high-3.00 range each year, and he steadily posted a WHIP around 1.25. With the Cubs this season, I think Garza will go 13-12, with 200 IP, a 4.20 ERA, and 170 strikeouts. Like I said, I’m not thinking too highly of him for this year.  Carlos Zambrano Would you believe me if I told you Carlos Zambrano had one of the best post-All Star break seasons in the majors. Well, believe it. Big Z went 8-0 in 11 starts, 74.0 IP, 64 K, 1.58 ERA, 44 BB (don’t worry, he didn’t forget how to walk people). With anger issues and occasional stretches of throwing in relief in the bullpen, Zambrano was able to turn around his season. To give you an idea of his 2010, here is Zambrano’s ERA month-by-month. 6.56 ERA after April, 6.12 ERA after May, 5.66 ERA after June, (only pitched one inning in July), 4.36 ERA after August, and finally finished the year with a solid 3.33 ERA. There are trade rumors with Z’s name in them, but if he stays in Chicago, I expect 14 wins, 180 IP, 3.70 ERA, and 160 K this year. The 2009 version (12-10, 3.05 ERA, 104 K) of Randy Wells looked like a stud going into the 2010 season. Seems like it didn’t turn out like the Cubs had planned. Wells went 8-14 with a 4.26 ERA last year, but did manage to show better signs in the second half. Wells’ ERA went from 4.61 pre-All Star to 3.84 post-All Star. I don’t think Wells is draftable in standard leagues, but in NL-only leagues I can see him as a late round pick. It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, its… Carlos… Silva? Not saying he’s superman or anything, but since when does Carlos Silva start the year 8-0? I’ll tell you when, last year, his first year in Chicago too. I know he went 2-6 after that great start, but he had one of his better years of his career, (1.27 WHIP, .273 BAA, 6.4 K/9). I can see Silva being drafted in NL-only leagues, but his 2011 should show more of a modest stat line. Silva will get in a decent workload of around 150 IP. Maybe he can get another double-digit win season under his belt too. I see Silva going 11-13 with a 4.50 ERA and 90 K. Out of the Cubbies’ Cave (Outside Pitchers Looking In):James Russell- The Cubs might be a little LHP heavy in the bullpen this year, and one of new manager Mike Quade’s ideas might be to convert Russell (LHP) into a starter. In 49 innings last year, Russell had 42 strikeouts and only 11 walks. It would be interesting to see what he can do as a starter, but he needs to be careful of the long ball, he gave up 11 home runs in those short 49 innings. Andrew Cashner- Another potential starter is Andrew Cashner. Last year, this reliever was in his rookie season, and despite losing six games, he held 16 of them for the Cubs last season. He struck out 50 guys in 54.1 innings, but walked 30 of them too. If Cashner can get control of his pitches during spring training, there’s a slight chance he’ll emerge as a starter. Chances are he’ll start the year in his old role as a one or two inning relief pitcher. Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Chicago Cubs, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Randy Wells, James Russell, Andrew Cashner  The Missing Strasburg Coming to fans everywhere, the latest installment of Washington D.C baseball… National Treasures: The Missing Strasburg. Starring the D-list celebrities of the fantasy baseball world, Livan “National League Harlot” Hernandez, Jordan “Not That Zimmerman” Zimmermann, and featuring Jason Marquis and John Lannan as trusty sidekicks. Looking back at last year’s chapter of National Treasures, it seems like not many will buy into the 2011 version. There might be fantasy relevance with the Nationals’ pitching this season with Tom Gorzelanny doing his best President Obama impression. Coming to Washington D.C. from Chicago, Gorzelanny is a strikeout pitcher with two sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt. It’s likely he’ll be towards the beginning of the Nationals rotation, but the question remains if Gorzelanny will be used primarily in relief like in Chicago each of the last two years. I think he is meant to stay in your league’s free agency this year, but in super deep or NL-only leagues, there is some potential. From Florida to San Francisco to Washington to Arizona to Colorado to New York and now back to Washington, Livan Hernandez certainly gets around the National League. Usually bringing his ghastly ERA and bloated WHIP, Hernandez will have another crack at it with the Nationals this year. He actually had one of the better seasons of his career last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 22 quality starts. However, he only managed to win ten games in 2010, and had one of his lowest K/9 ratios (4.8). I can’t see Livan in many 2011 lineups, especially with age not helping, as he enters his 20th season in the majors.  Jordan Zimmermann Jordan Zimmermann has got that K/9 statistic wrapped up. Only problem is he can’t stay healthy or keep himself in the rotation. Despite his impressive career 8.8 K/9 ratio, his career 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP is nothing great. It will be interesting to see if he can emerge as a fantasy pitcher worth starting in the next year or so, but chances are he won’t see fantasy daylight anytime soon. Another bad sign of Zimmermann is his inability to go deep into a game. Just twice in his 23 career starts has he pitched seven innings. If you find yourself at the end of the week needing a few strikeouts from someone, and Zimmermann happens to be pitching, then maybe I could see getting value out of him. But it seems like he’s a deep NL-only play for the upcoming season. This will be John Lannan’s fifth year of Nationals baseball. Of the Nationals starters, Lannan may be the only guy worth looking into for all types of leagues. He’s had a healthy career with ERA’s below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009, and positive signs from last year’s second half. In Lannan’s post-All Star break, he went 6-3 in 11 starts, 68.1 innings, 47 K, 3.42 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. I’m not saying he’s a solid starter who should be owned in every league, but he might be worth a last round pick or free agent acquisition. I will say, though, If Lannan has a crummy start to the season, it is probably better to take a chance with someone else than stick with him. Jason Marquis has had mild success in his career. Before 2010, he won 11 or more games in his last six seasons, and has a tolerable career 4.56 ERA in 11 seasons. Last year, Marquis’ stats blew up due to an awful April. While dealing with injuries throughout May, June and July, Marquis started to change around his year with a 4.15 August ERA and a 4.44 September ERA. Marquis may be able to win double-digit games next season, but I expect 170 IP, 11 wins, 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 100 K. * No Washington Nationals ranked in Top 100 starting pitchers Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy Want to read Tyler's other National League East previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins & New York Mets! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Washington Nationals, National League East, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Stephen Strasburg, Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Tom Gorzelanny, Jordan Zimmermann, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker | CategoriesAll NJ SEO Company
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