 Rafael Dolis (credits below) I'll be analyzing two different players of the same position who are available in at least 50 percent of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. If you're torn between who to add, this column should offer some insight into each players' strengths, weaknesses and prospects going forward. The following duel is between two interim closers - one with lesser skills and more job security, and the other with a closer-worthy profile who is stuck in a committee. Rafael Dolis ChC-RP | 34% ESPN and 33% Yahoo) The most pressing question here - who is Rafael Dolis (pronounced "Doe-leese") and why should I trust him? A limited Wikipedia entry asks me to believe he's a 24 year-old homegrown talent who began his pitching career back in 2006. He recorded 17 saves in 72 IP in Double-A in 2011, with a 3.22 ERA and 48 Ks. He skipped Triple-A entirely, and outside of a 1 1/3 inning audition in 2011, has zero major league experience. However, the Cubs turned to him once Carlos Marmol did his implosion thing, and he's managed to record three saves despite an apparent timeshare with James Russell and a very uncloser-like profile (5 K/8 BB in 19 IP). Similar to shaky predecessors such as Chris Perez or Fernando Rodney, Dolis is what you might call a "dormant volcano." He's someone you should continue to ride so long as you have a backup plan ready just in case he erupts - be it a handcuff in Russell, a proven vet like Kerry Wood or a longshot sleeper like Michael Bowdoin - don't tempt fate (or your ERA) by riding him solo. That said, he's already earned himself a bit of pull on his leash, having allowed just one earned run with two saves and a win since April 30. Not to go analogy-crazy, but one might compare Dolis to a lukewarm Bud Light when you're really craving a Stella Artois in a challis - the quality might be lacking, but it still gets the job done. As always, saves are saves. Make sure to join the Fantasy Fix's $250 FREEROLL on DailyJoust.com today! It's a $1 million dollar roster and it's FREE so... Click to enter.Steve Cishek Mia-RP | 31% ESPN and 37% Yahoo) In contrast, Cishek is the anti-Dolis, a high-strikeout pitcher (16 Ks in 15 IP) who hasn't yet been handed the keys to the ninth. He uses a hard sinker to induce ground balls more than 50 percent of the time, which in-turn lowers his propensity to give up the long ball (an absurd 0% HR/FB so far) - a quality you typically look for when trying to protect a lead. He's also a God-fearing man, as his Twitter profile can attest, and it's always a plus to have the Good Lord on your site (just ask Mr. Tebow). Unfortunately for Cishek, the Marlins bullpen is currently a muddled mess, as team brass may find it hard to swallow their pride and remove their newly-minted $27 million dollar man Heath Bell from the closer role for good. But he's been awful (7 K/10 BB, 10.24 ERA in 9.2 IP) and despite what manager Ozzie Guillen tells the media, he does not make the team better when he's on the mound. Edward Mujica, who 's recorded two saves since May 3, is also in the mix, and may be viewed as the more stable option (just four walks in 14 1/3 IP). In most situations, skills eventually win out, and if Cishek were in most situations he'd probably be owned in more than one-third of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. However, the Marlins' bullpen drama makes him a question mark for the time being. Verdict: This dilemma isn't a problem for deep-leaguers, where saves are at a premium. But if both Cishek and Dolis are available in your league, and you happen to be, say, a Mariano Rivera owner, take the sure thing for now and ride Mt. Dolis until he erupts. I would think Cishek's fate is more likely to be tied to management's desire to get its money's worth from Bell, but he remains one to monitor closely nonetheless. (May 8, 2012 - Source: David Banks/Getty Images North America)
Written by Matt Gelfand exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Matt's fantasy baseball adventures on Twitter: @GelfBHQ.
 Make sure to join the Fantasy Fix's $250 FREEROLL on DailyJoust.com today! It's a $1 million dollar roster and it's FREE so... Click to enter.This is why you shouldn't worry about an innings cap on Stephen Strasburg. In six innings against the Pirates on Thursday, the Nationals ace struck out 13 (including seven straight), allowed one run, and picked up a victory while throwing 103 pitches. It's proof that even if the Nats limit him to around 175 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, he will produce more in those innings than 90 percent of other starters will in 225 innings. So don't buy into the fear that you should trade Strasburg before he gets shut down before the end of the season. Hang onto him, don't expect him to go eight or nine innings in a game, and hope the Nationals stay in the pennant race so they are pressured into keeping him on the mound late in the year. Don't trade Josh Hamilton either. You probably knew that though. He followed up his four-homer night with just one bomb against the Orioles, his 15th of the year. Two nights after Hamilton hit four homers in one game, Baltimore had five players hit one homer in a game. Ryan Flaherty, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Wilson Betemit all went deep off Colby Lewis, who became the first pitcher in nearly 100 years to give up five homers and strikeout 12. In seven innings, he did not allow a single, double, or triple, just five homers. Some other highlights from the night: - Yunel Escobar went 4-for-4 to raise his average from .242 to .265 while Henderson Alvarez continued to look good on the mound for the Blue Jays, allowing one earned run in seven innings. - Josh Beckett came back from injury, but the Red Sox and his fantasy owners wish he had waited a bit longer. Beckett gave up seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. Michael Brantley had four hits for Cleveland. - C.C. Sabathia threw eight innings with no earned runs against Tampa Bay and when it came to the ninth inning, it was Rafael Soriano, not David Robertson, getting the save. Robertson had pitched two night in a row and gave up four runs in the previous game, so he may have been getting a mental and physical break. For now, assume both Robertson and Soriano will get saves for the Yankees. - Andy Dirks and Miguel Cabrera both had four hits for the Tigers
 David Robertson (credits below) First off, make sure to join the Fantasy Fix's $250 FREEROLL on DailyJoust.com this Friday. Click to enter.Wednesday was another wild day in a season littered with blown saves, injuries, lost jobs and general zaniness from the closer position. The closer carousel is still spinning and in fact is probably picking up steam as it goes round and round. It's a good year to be a “don't pay for saves” acolyte and a great year to pick up saves from the waiver wire. Make sure to stay active and attentive and read on for more details.
We'll start where the spotlight is brightest, as David Robertson soldiers on with one of the more thankless jobs in baseball, taking over as Yankees closer from Mariano Rivera. Robertson had a 1.08 ERA and 100 strike outs in 66.2 innings in 2011. He started 2012 with 0 ER and 21K in 12 IP. Then Rivera went down and suddenly he had to fill the shoes of the greatest closer of all time. Robertson picked up the save Tuesday night, after giving up 2 hits and a walk. Wednesday night he entered in the 9th with a 1-0 Yankees lead and proceeded to blow the save, give up 4 ER on 3 hits, 1 BB and a HR from Matt Joyce. Best not to travel to Manhattan this weekend, it could descend into madness as Yankees fans try to come to terms with life post Mariano.
Is it the pressure getting to Robertson, or does he just need to tilt that brim a bit? His Tampa Bay counterpart, Fernando Rodney ended up with a 2 inning 4-1 win thanks to the meltdown.
In Milwaukee, both teams decided to join in Closergate 2012, starting with John Axford, who gave up 2 runs in the top of the 9th, spoiling Zack Grienke's 8 IP, 0 ER, 11 K gem. The Reds Sean Marshall came in for the save, but gave up a solo HR to Ryan Braun, followed by 2 more hits, before being pulled. Dusty Baker went to Logan Ondrusek who gave up a walk just to add to the excitement, before getting the final out and recording his first career save.
Miami's new closer, Steve Cishek who just took the job from Heath Bell and his 10.24 ERA, blew a save by giving up an RBI single to Brian Bogusevic spoiling a 1 run lead in the 9th. Miami did eventually win 5-3 in the 12th inning, thanks to a rejuvenated Omar Infante's 2 run single. Josh Johnson pulled that super annoying move where he pitched so badly you had to bench him, then he turns around and goes 7 IP with 2 ER and 6K. Thanks for that Josh.
Toronto manager John Farrell, fed up with his closer Francisco Cordero after watching him blow his third save on Tuesday night, named Casey Janssen his new closer. The move paid immediate dividends as Janssen pitched a clean 9th on Wednesday to record his first save. Brandon Morrow continued with his breakout year, pitching 6 innings with 1 ER and 10 K. Toronto beat Oakland 5-2 thanks to home runs from Adam Lind (his 3rd) JP Arencibia (3rd) and Edwin Encarnacion (10th).
Another newly minted closer, the Cubs Rafael Dolis, picked up his 3rd save since taking the job from Carlos Marmol. Dolis worked a clean 9th to seal a 1-0 Cubs win over Atlanta. The matchup of Tim Hudson versus Paul Malholm in Wrigley ended up being a nice pitchers duel. Hudson only needed 73 pitches to go 7 IP with 1 ER and a K. Malholm also went 7 IP with 0 ER and 3 K. The game's one run came courtesy of the red hot Bryan LaHair.
No closer issues in Kansas City, as Jonathan Broxton picked up his 7th save off the floundering Red Sox. Jon Lester gave up 4 ER in 5 IP with 3 K. Another horrible loss was overshadowed by news that Josh Beckett may have – GASP - played golf last Thursday, even though he missed his Saturday start due to stiffness in his lat muscle. No word on whether or not there was fried chicken involved. Further reports said readers would rather gouge out their own eyeballs than hear anything more about this. Seriously, anyone that can stomach hearing more boring off field crap about Josh Beckett, should be both admired and feared.
Speaking of teams with high expectations that just might be terrible, the Phillies lost to the Mets 10-6. Cliff Lee made first start coming back from injury going 6 IP on 84 pitches, with 2 ER and 6 K. The Phillies bullpen then took a blowtorch to the game giving up 8 runs in 3 innings. Ike Davis flashed some signs of life for the Mets, going 2 for 4 with a HR, 2 runs and 3 RBI.
(May 8, 2012 - Source: Nick Laham/Getty Images North America)
 Nolan Arenado/Bryce Harper (credits below) Arrrrre youuuuu readyyyyyy toooooo rummmmmmbbbblllllleeeeee????????? Pshaw, of course you are, that was a rhetorical question, why else would you enter the Prospect Cage Match? This week’s match features a battle of the best third basemen in the minor leagues: Twins prospect Miguel Sano vs Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado (sorry Mike Olt). In case you missed it, I’ve also written up a shortstop cage match on Billy Hamilton vs Manny Machado, and a pitcher cage match on Trevor Bauer vs Taijuan Walker. The Offensive Tools: Sano: The outlook on 19-year-old Miguel Sano is similar to the outlook on Billy Hamilton from a tools perspective despite the two of them being polar opposite types of hitters. That is, both of them derive the majority of their value from one tool. Obviously Hamilton’s value comes from his speed, and Sano’s comes from his incredible light tower power. Last year in the Appalachian League (which is a level below Low A often called ‘Rookie Ball’), Sano proved everything that scouts were saying about his power was true and more, slugging 20 homers in just 66 games while sporting a .637 slugging on his .292 average. However, Sano continued along the traditional power-hitter path last year by struggling with his strikeouts (26.3% K Rate) and not walking enough (7.8% BB Rate) to go along with his absurd power. This season, Sano’s power has hardly been less prodigious despite jumping up a full level to Low A Beloit, as he has slugged a nearly identical .636 with 8 homers in 30 games. The great news for Sano (and, of course, his fantasy owners) is that he appears to be making progress with his plate discipline issues, as he currently sports a 36:20 K/BB ratio. At his peak, Miguel Sano could be a solid average guy (.280 or so) with a little more value in OBP leagues while also the best power hitter in the game. His only issue is his speed, which is well below average, and Sano is only going to get bigger and slower as he ages and grows. Arenado: Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado is a rare player in many ways, but perhaps his most impressive feat is his consistency from level to level. In the last 4 years, from ages 18 to his current 21, Arenado has moved up exactly one level per year, every year from Rookie Ball to Double A. He has spanned between a batting average of .296 to .308 at every level, has averaged an extra base hit in the range of every 7.4 to 13.0 plate appearances at every level, and sported a K rate under 15.5% at every level (this would be much lower, but he’s struck out a relatively large amount in his small sample in double A so far). Nobody questions Arenado’s batting average potential, which should be well above average and give him the ability to hit .300 almost every year. Power-wise, there is a wider range of projections for Arenado. Throughout his career, he’s been a guy who has been more of a long doubles hitter than home run hitter, but that was mitigated in the hitter-friendly California league last year as he launched 20 homers in 134 games, and Coors Field isn’t far behind that environment. I’d say projecting him for 20-25 homers annually with the upside for a little more is well within reason. Like Sano, Arenado can’t run at all; the two of them will both likely be a near-0 in the steals category every year. The Edge: Sano by a solid amount. Who would you rather have, a player with great power and a solid average, or a player with a great average and solid power? I’ll take the power every time, those prospects are rare; cheap average guys are findable (see Michael Young for details). The Position: Sano: Sano is already a former-shortstop, and more likely than not he’ll eventually be a former-third basemen. Miguel Sano’s problem is similar to Mac from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’s Problem: he’s got a keen ability to cultivate mass. Right now, Sano isn’t absolutely atrocious at third, he’s merely bad, but the issue is he’s only 19 years old and has a body that is going to get much, much bigger. His body’s growth will be great for turning on a 97 MPH Justin Verlander fastball and sending it into the right field bleachers, but it likely won’t help when he dives to his left from third base and is 2 feet short on an otherwise routine groundball. There’s a very, very good chance (over 50%) that Sano ends up in the outfield or at first base. Arenado: Arenado transitioned from a player who most scouts thought would have to move off of third base in the big leagues to a defender who scouts believe can provide positive value fielding third base in the bigs. There’s probably a 90% chance at this point that Arenado sticks at third. The Edge: Arenado. Everyone would rather have a third basemen than an outfielder or first basemen. The Team: Sano: The Twins have a questionable future at this point. The team’s once-great core of M&M (Mauer and Morneau) now appears to be a detriment rather than a strength long-term, and, thus far in its existence, Target Field has played as an extreme pitchers park. None of this is good for Sano, although his power is so preposterous that he’ll probably be able to hit 40+ bombs anywhere if he makes it to his peak. Arenado: On nearly the opposite side of the spectrum sits Arenado, who not only gets to beat up on national league pitching with the Rockies, he also gets to do so in Coors Field while sitting next to Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup. There really isn’t a better situation for a hitter in baseball, especially one who has impeccable average skills but is going to need some help in the power department. The Edge: Arenado by a ton. One of the best ball parks in the league while facing NL pitching in a good lineup vs a bad ballpark with a bad lineup in the AL. Seems simple. The Proximity: Sano: Miguel Sano is a 19 year old who is having his first taste of A-ball. Yeah, he’s been absolutely crushing it, but it is important to remember just how far away he is from the big leagues, or even double A. He could get the call at the earliest in mid-2014. Arenado: Arenado could probably do fine in the big leagues right now, and sometime around the All-Star break he’ll likely get his chance to prove that. The Edge: Arenado by a ton. The Verdict: Tie goes to the power hitter Miguel Sano. Take this stat line: .306 AVG, 26 HR, 35 Doubles, 80 Runs, 93 RBI, 1 SB, 6.9% BB Rate, 11.0% K Rate. That sounds almost exactly like what I’m projecting Nolan Arenado to do at the major league level, and it also happens to be Aramis Ramirez’s stat line last season. With that line, Ramirez finished as the 48th best player in fantasy and the 4th best third basemen (in a year with a ton of third base injuries). Arenado I’d say has about a 40% chance to blossom into that player, maybe a 10% chance to well exceed that and a 50% chance to never live up to those stats. Here’s another stat line: .268 AVG, 47 HR, 94 Runs, 136 RBI, 1 SB. That sounds like around what I’d project Sano for if he hits his upside, and it also happens to be what used to be considered a typical Ryan Howard season (2007 to be exact). Placing those stats into last year’s player rater, we’d get a player who finished somewhere in the top 20 (it’s impossible to figure it out exactly where, as no player in the majors had 47 HR or 136 RBI last year). There is probably a 15% chance Sano lives up to stats along those lines, a 5% chance he will exceed them and an 80% chance he disappoints and doesn’t come close to those numbers. Now that leads to the essential question of this entire article: what would you rather have, a 50% chance at an Aramis Ramirez—a good, not great player for your team who is a top 50 guy, or a 20% chance at a Ryan Howard—a difference maker for your fantasy franchise, a guy who can lead major league baseball in more than one category and lead your team to the championship with consistency? The battle of Sano vs Arenado is a very, very close one, and both players are immensely valuable as prospects right now in any keeper or dynasty league. However, as I said last week: I like to swing for the fences with my prospects rather than take safer, high likelihood guys, and that makes Miguel Sano just slightly more valuable to me than Nolan Arenado. Choosing a prospect is a lot like playing the lottery: it’s (mostly) luck-based, trying to pick a winner almost always backfires and you rarely, if ever, win. On those infrequent occasions that you do cash in a jackpot, that everything does go according to plan, and your life feels like it’s stuck in a romantic comedy, what would you prefer: winning a 5 thousand dollar scratch-off, or a 200 million dollar power ball? Sometimes in life, it’s worth it to gamble, and spending your last dollar on a Miguel Sano lottery ticket rather than a Nolan Arenado scratch-off is just one of those times. Even though the majority of the time the scratch-off is going to do better, that mega millions ticket is so much more valuable when it does cash in that I would go back and play it each and every time.
By Moe Koltun, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Read more of Moe's excellent fantasy insight over at RotoAnalysis.com. Have a fantasy related question? You can follow the site on Twitter @RotoAnalysis or Moe on twitter @moeproblems. (July 9, 2011 - Source: Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
 Anibal Sanchez is now 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA (2.85 xFIP) and a 10.26 K/9. Sanchez's early season success moved him into the top ten of Brett Talley's "Top 60" starting pitchers rankings that were released yesterday. Check them out here. Brandon Inge hit a walk-off grand slam off Francisco Cordero last night to power the Oakland Athletics to a 5-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. Believe it or not, that was Inge's seventh career walk-off home run. Despite batting just .233 on the season, Emilio Bonifacio leads the Majors with 15 stolen bases. Bonifacio's 15 stolen bases are more than the Angels, Pirates, Reds, Mets, Nationals, Red Sox, Orioles and Tigers have as a team.Josh Hamilton made history last night, by becoming the 15th player in Major League Baseball history to hit four home runs in one game. Hamiton was 4-for-5 with the aforementioned four long balls and a double for an American League record, 18 total bases.
Happy Birthday to Daniel Schlereth (26), Prince Fielder (28), Chase Headley (28) and Tony Gwynn (52).
On this day in 2006, Delmon Young was suspended for fifty games by the International League for throwing his bat at an umpire after arguing balls and strikes. Video here:
Young is now 2-15 since returning 4 games ago. Justin Verlander wasn't perfect but notched his 3rd win over the M's. Clayton Kershaw gave it his all going 8 strong, but the 2 earned runs against the Giants gave him his first loss of the season. Oakland's rookie Jarrod Parker, threw his 3rd solid game. Definitely worth keeping an eye on this kid, especially in deeper leagues. Yesterday, outfielder Wil Myers of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Double-A, Royals) hit his 11th home run of the season, extended is hit streak to 15 games and his homer streak to four games. David Robertson (1), Jose Valverde (6), Addison Reed (2), Jon Rauch (1), Santoago Casilla (6), Craig Kimbrel (10), Brett Myers (8), Dale Thayer (2) and Jonathan Broxton (6) each earned handshakes last night. Pitching duels I’m looking forward to watching today: Johnny Cueto (CIN) vs. Zack Greinke (Mil), Ross Detwiler (Was) vs. Erik Bedard (Pit) and Dillon Gee (NYM) vs. Cliff Lee (PHI) Written by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
 Anibal Sanchez (credits below) 1. Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies, 100% owned)
2. Cliff Lee (Philadelphia Phillies, 100% owned)
3. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers, 100% owned)
4. Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies, 100% owned)
5. CC Sabathia (New York Yankees, 100% owned)
6. Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers, 100% owned)
7. Zack Greinke (Milwaukee Brewers, 100% owned)
8. Anibal Sanchez (Miami Marlins, 100% owned)
Anibal’s draft position of 41st among pitchers (ESPN.com) was insane. He was coming off a 3.25 xFIP year in which he struck out over a batter per inning and walked fewer than three per nine. The K rate was a big improvement from previous years but was backed up by a big jump in swinging strike rate. So far this year strikeouts are up, walks are down, and groundballs are up. All good signs. A top ten ranking may seem high, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that a sub-3.00 ERA, more than a strikeout per inning, and a respectable WHIP can’t be posted by Anibal this season.
9. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned)
10. Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners, 100% owned)
11. Dan Haren (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
12. James Shields (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned)
13. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
Weaver’s career K/9 is 7.82. It spiked in 2010 to 9.35 with an 11.2% swinging strike rate, but both his K/9 and swinging strike rate fell back to his career norms last year where he also got some significant BABIP (.250) and strand rate (82.6%) luck. This year his K/9 is above 9.00, but his swinging strike rate is currently the lowest of his career (8%). And the BABIP and strand rate luck have continued through roughly 50 innings this year. He might be able to keep some level of “luck” give his skill-set (high fly ball percentage), but not this level. Weaver is a really nice sell high candidate at the moment.
14. Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals, 100% owned)
The 5.61 ERA has made some think Wainwright is having trouble returning from Tommy John surgery. But his other numbers say otherwise. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 4.86 (9.09 K/9, 1.87 BB/9), and he’s been getting a ton of groundballs (55.8%). But luck has not been on his side. His BABIP is elevated (.319), his strand rate is lower than average (67.3%), and his HR/FB rate is unsustainably high (28%). Wainwright has recovered from injury just fine, his roto numbers just don’t show it yet.
15. C.J. Wilson (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
16. Matt Garza (Chicago Cubs, 100% owned)
17. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
The significant drop in fastball velocity and the high walk total are definitely concerns, but a lot of Lincy’s bad start has been bad luck. His BABIP is a bit high (.315), and his strand rate is very, very low (60.6%). He’s still generating swings and misses at an above average rate (albeit below his career average), so he’s probably still capable of being a top 20 pitcher.
18. Jordan Zimmermann (Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
19. Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
20 Ian Kennedy (Arizona Diamondbacks, 100% owned)
21. Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers, 98.7% owned)
22. Mat Latos (Cincinnati Reds, 89.0% owned)
23. Yu Darvish (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
24. Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
25. Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
26. Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves, 100% owned)
27. Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee Brewers, 100% owned)
28. Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, 74.1% owned)
I’m not sure how many times I can say this, but Minor has also been a victim of bad BABIP (.324) and strand rate luck (55.6%). He was really good in the 130 innings he spent at AAA, and some of that success has translated to the majors as he sports a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost three. Whenever the luck turns around, Minor is going to be a beast.
29. Brandon Beachy (Atlanta Braves, 100% owned)
30. Josh Johnson (Miami Marlins, 91.7% owned)
31. Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers, 58.3% owned)
Scherzer has the highest K/9 among qualified starters (backed up by the 5th highest swinging strike rate in the league). Scherzer also has the second highest BABIP in the league. The strikeouts he can control. The BABIP he can’t control. You can probably get a guy who will be among the league leaders in strikeouts at a significant discount while his ERA is north of 6.00.
32. Jonathon Niese (New York Mets, 34.0% owned)
33. Derek Holland (Texas Rangers, 73.7% owned)
34. Bud Norris (Houston Astros, 47.8% owned)
35. Jake Peavy (Chicago White Sox, 100% owned)
Peavy is a really good pitcher. But he isn’t this good. His SIERA is a good run-and-a-half higher than his ERA right now, and his HR/FB rate won’t stay as low as 3%. More importantly, Peavy hasn’t thrown more than 115 innings since 2008. He’s been good when he has been on the mound, but he just hasn’t been able to stay on the mound. Maybe this is the year he gets back to 175+ innings, but the odds are higher that he’ll miss some time due to injury again this season. Sell now while he looks as somewhat invincible.
36. Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox, 100% owned)
37. Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros, 100% owned)
38. Jaime Garcia (St. Louis Cardinals, 99.6% owned)
39. Ricky Romero (Toronto Blue Jays, 100% owned)
40. Brandon Morrow (Toronto Blue Jays, 100% owned)
41. Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox, 72.3% owned)
42. Jeff Samardzija (Chicago Cubs, 34.9% owned)
When making this list Samardzija’s name came up, and I was curious to look at his Fangraphs page to see if his great start (3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) was legit. The short answer to that curious query: LEGIT. If anything, Samardzija has been unlucky. His BABIP is a little high, his strand rate is a little low, and his xFIP and SIERA are both lower than his ERA. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning, and his swinging strike rate is a phenomenal 13%. And the walk rate, which was somewhat of an issue in the minors, is under three batters per nine. The walk rate may spike back up, but Samardzija should continue to succeed as long as his BB/9 doesn’t completely balloon.
43. Gio Gonzalez (Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
44. Ricky Nolasco (Miami Marlins, 77.6% owned)
45. Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox, 100% owned)
46. R.A. Dickey (New York Mets, 20.5% owned)
47. Jason Hammel (Baltimore Orioles, 85.0% owned)
Coming into this season Hammel had over 700 innings of 4.00-plus ERA and xFIP. Over that span his strikeout ability was average at times but below average on the whole, and his control was spotty at best. But through almost 40 innings away from Coors (but in the tough AL East), Hammel has been insanely good. His xFIP is an impressive 2.76, his K/BB is an excellent 3.45, and he’s inducing a ridiculous amount of groundballs (61%). Those numbers (especially the GB%) seem to be backed up by a significant increase in the usage of his two-seam fastball (up from 13% last year to 40% this year). I’m inclined to put more stock in the 700+ inning track record Hammel had before this season, but his hot start (and the reasons for it) can’t be ignored.
48. Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays, 98.2% owned)
49. Edwin Jackson (Washington Nationals, 58.8% owned)
50. Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
51. Ryan Dempster (Chicago Cubs, 97.5% owned)
52. Hiroki Kuroda (New York Yankees, 85.0% owned)
53. Brandon McCarthy (Oakland Athletics, 74.5% owned)
54. Chad Billingsley (Los Angeles Dodgers, 95.5% owned)
55. Chris Capuano (Los Angeles Dodgers, 69.7% owned)
56. Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals, 100% owned)
57. Daniel Bard (Boston Red Sox, 54.5% owned)
58. Joe Blanton (Philadelphia Phillies, 5.9% owned)
59. Juan Nicasio (Colorado Rockies, 1.0% owned)
60. Matt Harrison (Texas Rangers, 36.1% owned)
I’m sure some of you will notice the absence of Johnny Cueto on this list. But take a look at this set of numbers and tell me one of these pitchers has been significantly better than the other since the beginning of last year.
As my Twitter friend @BChad50 pointed out to me, we may be at the point where we just have to accept Cueto as one of these pitchers whose ERA consistently outperforms their xFIP. But Cueto has only done that to a significant degree in his last 200-ish innings. Matt Cain is probably the ultimate “xFIP lower than ERA guy,” but he’s been doing that for over 1000 innings. Cueto has only done it for roughly one full season’s worth of innings. At this point it seems more likely to me that the BABIP, LOB%, and strand rate normalize and Cueto is exposed as the average pitcher he is.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who won’t be able to say that next week because he graduates on Saturday. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(May 2, 2012 - Source: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)
 Addison Reed (credits below) This week we take a look at another two rookies out in Oakland and the reason why in Boston they are starting to ask the question: Kevin who ?
RP- ADDISON REED (CHI SOX)- Reed has been lights out in Chicago this year in his 9 innings of work. Reed has struck out 12 batters, has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Manager Robin Ventura removed one rookie from the closer role in Hector Santiago, now he has another rookie Chris Sale in the role. It is just a matter of time before Reed, the team's true closer gets his shot. I recommend keeping an eye on the situation and being ready to grab Reed at any time.
RP- RYAN COOK (OAKLAND)- Cook like Reed above has been lights out in the Oakland bullpen with a stat line consisting of 14 games, 14 2/3 Inn, 0.00 ERA, 14 K's and 8 holds. Even more impressive is he has only given up three hits in those 14+ innings. As Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes continue to be inconsistent the door is opening for Cook to slide into the closer role. Keep a wait and see approach on this situation.Got the itch for daily fantasy baseball? Check out these highly recommended sites!
SS- TYLER PASTORNICKY (ATLANTA)- Tyler who beat out Braves prospect Andrelton Simmons for the starting gig has been pretty much mediocre so far as he owns a .271 BA , 1 HR and just 8 RBI's in 85 AB's. The key to his game is his speed though where he averaged 36 steals per season in the minor leagues but for some reason he has not even attempted a stolen base yet in the majors. For now he should only be owned in N.L. leagues only.
3B- WILL MIDDLEBROOKS- (BOSTON)- Middlebrooks who was called up to play third base when the Red Sox placed Kevin Youklis on the DL is off to a flying start for the Bosox as he owns a .381 BA, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 1.361 OPS and a stolen base in just 21 AB's. While no one expects him to continue at this torid pace, he does own impressive power numbers in the minor leagues and may be just what is needed in Boston to jump start the hapless Redsox offense. If Will continues to hit like this, the Red Sox will have no choice but to keep him in the lineup even when Youklis returns from the DL. Pick him up ASAP if you are willing to take the chance.
OF- MICHAEL TAYLOR (OAKLAND)- The A's called up one of their top prospects in Taylor to replace starter Coco Crisp who was placed on the 15 day DL. Taylor a Stanford product is 6"5" and has all the tools to succeed at the major league level. He has just 8 AB's this year and owns a .250 BA. He is worth a flier if you need help in the OF especially flying under the radar with phenoms Bryce Harper and Mike Trout already called up.(September 3, 2011 - Source: Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)
 Will Middlebrooks (credits below) Will Middlebrooks made a serious splash for the Red Sox, as he sent two out of the ballpark and racked up five RBI's going 3 for 5 from the plate in Boston's 11-5 win over the Royals.
Carlos Zambrano pitched an absolute gem in the Marlins win over the Astors, going nine innings, striking out nine batters and giving up just three hits on the night. Zambrano has looked solid of late.
Jered Weaver continued his dominance of the Twins last night, pushing his record to 5-0, going six innings and striking out two with only one earned run.
Meanwhile fellow No Hit pitcher Phillip Humber looked pretty mediocre again. He got absolutely destroyed by the Indians, giving up eight earned runs over just 2.1 innings and striking out just one.
Brandon Snyder of the Rangers knocked in a whopping six runs as he went 3 for 5 from the plate and sent out of the park in the Rangers 14-3 clobbering of the Orioles.
Both Jay Bruce and Ryan Braun added their ninth home runs of the season last night as the Reds and Brewers squared off.
Bryan LaHair continued his insane run to start the season, mashing his eighth home run of the season in a 5-1 Cubs win over the Braves.
In Arizona the Cardinals bats simply went off. They were boosted to the win over the D-Backs with homers by Matt Holliday (6), Carlos Beltran (8), Rafael Furcal (2), David Freese (7) and Allen Craig 2).
Last night was one of the utmost random handshakes, which went to; Dale Thayer (1), Jason Motte (5), Vincente Padilla (1) Tony Sipp (1), Frank Francisco (8), Nick Hagadone (1).
The pitching match ups I'm looking forward to the most tonight are few and far between as the slate is pretty ugly but we've got a couple of lookers; Ricky Romero (TOR) Vs. Brandon McCarthy (OAK) and James Shields (TB) Vs. Ivan Nova (NYY).
(May 6, 2012 - Source: Ed Zurga/Getty Images North America)
 Jayson Werth (credits below) Finally, Albert Pujols owners can exhale. It took 110 at-bats, but the new Angel hit his first home run for his new club on Sunday. Hopefully that monkey is off his back now. Carry on.Don’t look now, but B.J. Upton is batting .333 with seven runs scored, two long balls, 11 RBIs and two stolen bases. It’s hard to forget what he’s put owners through in the recent past, but I think we will see the 2007 B.J. Upton resurface in 2012. Two words: contract year.Jayson Werth broke his left wrist while sliding to make a catch last night in an 8-3 loss to his former team, the Phillies. Initial reports indicate that Werth could miss “at least” six weeks.
Here are some quick outfield options to consider if you’re a Jayson Werth owner:- Bryan LaHair (ChC-1B/OF | 79% Y!) There are still too many LaHaters out there claiming he’s not worth owning due to his ridiculous BABIP. Well, heck with all that BABIP talk, you better run him out there -- or sell high on him -- until that luck runs out. LaHair has been on base every games he’s started, and he’s sporting the league’s second best batting average (.390), on-base percentage (.478) and slugging percentage (.779).
- Jordan Schafer (Hou-OF | 58% Y!) We previously discussed Schafer in an edition of the waiver wire, but I still feel the same today. He will be a decent source of runs and stolen bases, if you can afford to take the hit in batting average.
- Jon Jay (Stl-OF | 43% Y!) Although Jon Jay is hitting way over his head (.405 BA) right now due to the luck department (.424 BABIP versus career .352), he is a safe outfielder to target if you’re in the market for one. Jay is a solid source of batting average (career .308), and will toss in 10-15 home runs and stolen bases over the course of the season.
- Josh Reddick (Oak-OF | 16% Y!) In the last two weeks, Reddick has clubbed three home runs, drove in eight, scored nine runs and stole a base. He’s not going to be kind to your batting average, but contributions across the other four traditional categories will be helpful.
- Tony Campana (Chc-OF | 11% Y!) Two categories: batting average and stolen bases. If you need a .300 hitter who will steal about thirty bases this season, Campana is your guy.
Also on Sunday Night Baseball, Cole Hamels welcomed young Bryce Harper into the league by purposely plunking him the back with a fastball. Harper happily trotted to first, advanced to third base on a Jayson Werth single, then stole home when Cole Hamels threw over to first to check on Werth. See the video here:
Those of you who invested wisely in Jesus Montero, can now reap the benefits of the newly earned catcher eligibility in most formats. If you're in need of some corner or middle infield help from the waiver wire, check out my suggestions for week six here. The Angels newest closer, Scott Downs, was removed from the ninth inning with a leg injury after dodging a J.P Arencibia single up the middle. LaTroy Hawkins would come in for Downs to earn the save when he caught a line drive off Omar Vizquel’s bat that resulted in a game-ending double play. However, while catching the line drive, Hawkins fractured his pinky finger. Relievers are literally dropping like flies. Looks like Jordan Walden may be back closing sooner than we thought.  Chris Davis vs. Adrian Gonzalez (courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net) Will Middlebrooks of the Red Sox hit his first career home run tonight, a grand slam, in the fifth inning of a losing effort to the Baltimore Orioles.
In the same game, Chris Davis went 0-for-8 at the plate, with five strikeouts. However, the former college closer came on to pitch in relief in the 16th inning and subsequently earned his first major league win as a pitcher.
Just for fun, and courtesy of our friends at BrooksBaseball.net, I added the strike zone plot to the left so we can see the location of the three consecutive changeups that Adrian Gonzalez got from Chris Davis. His changeup maxed out at 84.6
but had excellent location and I can't stop laughing while typing this. The third changeup, labeled "3", was a swing-and-miss for the strikeout. Now we really have a closer dilemma in Charm City, don't we? Frank Francisco (7), LaTroy Hawkins (1), Chris Perez (11), Cristhian Martinez (1), Jose Valverde (5) and Edward Mujica (2) earned handshakes on Sunday.
Pitching duels I’m looking forward to on Monday: Jon Niese (NYM) vs. Roy Halladay (PHI), Tommy Hanson (Atl) vs. Jeff Samardzija (ChC) and Barry Zito (SFG) vs. Ted Lilly (LAD)
Written by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Feel free to come ask his fantasy baseball advice on Twitter @TheFantasyFix, then proceed to tell him he's wrong.
 Pedro Alvarez (credits below) Welcome to week six's edition of the waiver wire. Sorry for the tardy/brief writeup this week, as I'm dealing with a sick wife and son at home. Pedro Alvarez (Pit-3B | 46% Y! and 68% ESPN) Many scouting outlets salivated over Alvarez’s “70” power and suggested he could display a .300/400/.500 triple slash year-in and year-out. However, lack of success in 2010 and 2011 turned the former first round pick by the Pirates’ into a post-hype sleeper.
Thus far in 2012, Alvarez has exceeded his home run output of 2011 in just one-third of the at-bats. His HR/FB rate of 31% is clearly unsustainable, so one would expect for the rate at which Alvarez puts the ball into the stands to decline. Even when his HR/FB rate comes back to earth, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alvarez blasted 25-30 homers and knocked in 75-80 RBIs on the season. The lack of depth at third base, and injuries to players like Evan Longoria and Kevin Youkilis make Pedro Alvarez a must-own player, especially while he’s swinging a hot bat.
Jed Lowrie (Hou-3B/SS | 42% Y! and 71% ESPN!) Another week, another Astro makes my waiver wire list. The first thing I love about Jed Lowrie is his position eligibility, who can make starts at SS/3B/CI or MI depending on your league’s format. His .338/.433/.545 slash line may be inflated due to his .373 average on balls in play --which is 73 points higher than his career average -- but he is making solid contact (22% LD%) and getting on base for the moment, so take advantage.
Additionally, Lowrie has been key to the Astros’ run production in 2012, strutting an impressive wRC+ of 175, which ranks him just outside the league’s top ten and ahead of players like Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Carlos Beltran. Lowrie has never exceeded nine homers or knocked in more than 50 runs at any level, so you’re not adding him if you’re looking for power. Add him with confidence if batting average is a weakness, and benefit from the position flexibility.
Gordon Beckham (CWS-2B | 7% Y! and 6% ESPN) Another post-hype sleeper starting to hit after a horrid March/April. He started the season batting .153 with just three extra base hits in 19 games. In five games in May, Beckham is batting .471 with two home runs and five runs batted in. The former first rounder should be monitored in case he is can continue his hot start to May.
Carlos Ruiz (Phi-C | 47% Y! and 47% ESPN) Carlos Ruiz is currently out-performing the likes of Mike Napoli, Brian McCann, Carlos Santana and Alex Avila while owned in less than half the leagues. The Phillies’ backstop is rockin’ a .325/.352/.588 triple slash with six doubles, five home runs and 19 runs batted in. Ruiz’s spike in homers is likely due to his excellent 19.2% HR/FB versus his career 6.8%, so don’t be surprised if the home run output doesn’t continue at it’s current pace. Add Ruiz for his steady batting average and pat yourself on the back for whatever else you get out of it.
Jose Tabata (Pit-OF | 27% Y! and 7% ESPN) Tabata has started to show some signs of life in the past two weeks, going 14-for-46 (.326 BA) with one homer, five runs batted in, two stolen bases and nine runs scored. Updated ZIPS projections have Tabata finishing the season with 25 stolen bases, 75 runs scored and a .267 average. While those aren’t stellar numbers, they’re definitely serviceable for those who start four or more outfielders.
Don’t forget about:
Carlos Quentin (SD-RP | 32% Y! and 22% ESPN) Quentin has been on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Tuscon of the Pacific Coast League for a few games. He has four hits in four games (11 PAs), with one home run and four runs batted in. He will get immediate playing time upon his return from the DL and should provide steady power numbers for those in need. Don’t expect 30 homers considering he will be playing his home games at Petco Park, but 20 moon shots and 50 runs batted in isn’t out of the question from here on out.
Written by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com, who is sincerely apologetic for the brief (and late) waiver wire article for week six. Feel free to take shots at him, or ask him your waiver wire questions on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.(May 2, 2012 - Source: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)
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