Fantasy Sports Advice, Analysis and Projections | The Fantasy Fix
 
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Carlos Pena
One of the mistakes I see lots of fantasy owners make it falling in love with a player’s current statistics.  Many will look at their teams coming up to on the All Star break, and mentally double their numbers in the anticipation of a duplicate second half.  This will cause you to make 3 mistakes:  1) holding on to a player beyond productivity 2) continuing to start a cold player without a history of consistency 3) unwillingness to trade a current statistical league leader.

 No doubt the first statistic the average fantasy owner looks at first is Homeruns.  It’s the most exciting, and in many cases if you hit Homeruns, the Runs Batted In & Runs scored are close to follow.  Yet this year I look at the Top 5 in ALL of baseball for HRs and the list is as follows:

 1. Jose BautistaTOR     14

 2. Paul Konerko CHW   14

 3. Ty Wiggington BAL     13

 4. Kelly Johnson ARI     12

 5. Dan Uggla FLA           12

 In most years there is a certain level of predictability with who will club the most HRs.  Where are they this year (Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, or Alex Rodriguez), not even 1 is in the Top 5 (actually the highest is ranked 39th with only 8 long balls).   We have seen the beginnings of a power swing over the past couple of years with everyone being watched for supplements, but this may be the year were we see this come to a head.  Players are starting to hit HRs the old fashion way with mechanics, practice, and a more controlled approach at the plate.

 If HRs are going to be tougher to come by then as fantasy owners we will have to make similar changes.  We need to start focusing on the finer details:  Stadiums Friendly to Power, Health, Lineup Protection, Pitching Matchups for the Week, Home/ Away Schedules,  New Hitting Coach?,  Team’s Standing (are they in a Playoff Race/ Potential Trade)?  These are just some reminders of things that you can look at for determining future predictability.  All of them can be easily researched, and will give you a greater edge on the waiver wire, and in the trade market.

 True Homerun hitters get streaky; keep an eye on some of the historically better HR hitters due for a streak.
  1. Adam Dunn
  2. Carlos Lee
  3. Carlos Pena

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, The Fantasy Fix, Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds, Carlos Lee, Houston Astros, Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays, Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
 
 
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Jose Lopez
Beginning Week 8 (5.24-5.30) we sit here and ask ourselves a few questions.

When is he going to finally catch up to his typical career numbers?
Can he keep up this pace all season?
Why is there nobody on the waiver wire?  

Here are a few answers to those questions.  The waiver wire 2 months in is not about picking up an everyday All Star to plug into a starting roll. It’s simply about making calculated moves, and grabbing the player currently in or about to go on a hot streak.   What your probably seeing available are players who are underachieving starters, young unproven prospects,  bench, and platoon players.  None of which would be considered must starts. 

Next, you’ll find that “out of nowhere” player who has been mediocre his whole career, but for whatever reason (change of team, contract year, consistent playing time) is EXPLODING! This type of player must be ridden into the ground like a 1990 Civic.  When the well runs dry (slumping for a period of 2 weeks), then you unload them, but NOT until then.  They will still carry intrinsic value at that point, but not for much longer.

Finally, pace is a matter of guessing.  My predictions tend to be usually pretty accurate, but at the end of the day I’m using very educated guessing from years of watching and studying statistics. 

Below I’ve include my research as to who are excellent buying opportunities, and who you should considering moving because the flame is about to go out.

Buy Low  (Runs-Homers-RBI-SB-AVG.) 

Jason Bay (25-1-16-5-.281) – All that’s missing are HRs, and they will come.  
Pablo Sandoval  (20-3-14-2-.283) – Pablo is a .324 career hitter (that’s no accident) 
Nick Markakis  (20-2-14-1-.304) – Nick is a potential (100-20-100) guy every year.
Yunel Escobar (10-0-8-3-.200) – He’s 27, prime for a break out, and is on a better team than their record. 
Jose Lopez (9-1-15-3-.217) – eligible at 1st, 2nd, & 3rd, and hit cleanup all last season. 

Sell High  (Runs-Homers-RBI-SB-AVG.) 

Marlon Byrd (26 -7-25-3-.325) – Then end of these numbers may be near. 
Paul Konerko (21-14-30-0-.262) – Great first 2 months,  NOT typical for most 34 year olds (Raul Ibanez? ) 
BJ Upton (27-5-19-13-.224) – Of All Rays the 1 I expect to crash first (still strikes out too much) 
Alfonso Soriano (24-7-23-2-.323) – Another Cubby to fall.  No more speed, 34y/o, Cubs,  heart?  
Jose Guillen (25-9-28-1-.259) – The Royals provide no protection. Another 34y/o here…162 games makes for a long season.  

Who are some other buy low and sell high candidates?
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Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Mechanic, Jason Bay, New York Mets, Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners, Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays, Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, Jose Guillen Kansas City Royals, Marlon Byrd, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants, Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles, Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves


 
 
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Tom Gorzelanny
If you are struggling for pitching you MUST pick up Tom Gorzelanny.  He has been viewed as a potential breakout player for the past 4 years.  In 2007 he threw 200 innings with 14 wins and 135 K’s as a 24 year old. Don’t be misled by his numbers the past 2 years he was battling injuries. Young pitchers typically aren’t experienced enough to battle through injuries and still be effective. Now in 2010 he has regained his health and command. In his past 4 starts he has thrown 25 innings, and struck out 29...RIDICULOUS! Pick him up NOW!

On a side note:  Brett Myers has in 7 starts this year not thrown less than 6 innings, owns a 3.52, and sat down 32 batters in 46 innings. A nice compliment to the Gorzelanny move, adding the veteran will provide you some consistency and reliability.

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs, Brett Myers, Houston Astros, The Fantasy Mexhanic