Fantasy Sports Advice, Analysis and Projections | The Fantasy Fix
 

Whether you’re in a H2H league or Rotisserie, it has reached that point of the season where you can really take a step back and take stock of what you have.  In most cases it will be obvious where you are excelling and where your weaknesses lie.  If you are not sure, look on the hosting site of your league for a records section.  It will have your season’s standings, and your cumulative yearly statistics.  This is where you can compare your squad against your competitors, and gauge the areas in which you need to improve.

 Wherever your team ranks against the rest of the league, keep in mind the fantasy regular season is only half over (74 games to be exact).  By using the information you have in front of you, it is easy to make small yet winning improvements.  It can sometimes feel like you want to trade or cut your entire team, but that is a failing strategy.  Similar to flying a plane, small corrections are necessary to reaching your goals, and championship destination.

 What I’ve done is compiled a list of players that have gone unnoticed, but can and will, improve individual statistical categories.

 Strike Outs

Jorge De La Rosa, COL, SP:  Ranked 18th in MLB in K’s.  In 81.1 IP 87 K’s and 4 Wins.

 THE FIX:  You can’t ignore the Strike Outs.  His ERA is a little high, but an extra ER or 2 a week is worth the risk for getting this many K’s.  Plus, with how the Rockies have been playing you can expect his Wins to go up considerably.  

Joe Blanton, PHI, SP: Ranked 31st in MLB in K’s. In 83.2 IP 77K’s and 4 Wins.

 THE FIX:  He has 1 K less then CC Sabathia in 25.1 less IP.  Pitching for the World Champs has its rewards.  Throwing in front of that star studded lineup will only help pile up the Wins, even though his run support has been limited thus far.

Stolen Bases

 Nyjer Morgan, PIT, OF:  Ranked 7th in MLB in SB’s.  Included are a respectable .270 BA, and 39 Runs.

THE FIX:  The departure of Nate McClouth has increased his importance to the team.  Unfortunately, he is batting behind super rookie Andrew McCutchen, so it does limit his SBs a bit.  Keep your eyes and ears open for a potential trade.  Teams looking to get him want his speed at the top of their lineups.  This will really boost his value further.

Runs

Emilio Bonifacio, FLA, 3B: Ranked 29th in the NL in Runs.  His 40 Runs + 15 SBs have put him back on the radar.

THE FIX:  One of the hottest players picked up in early April looks to be heating up again.  My prediction is he won’t fizzle out like he did the last time. Young players tend to go through droughts, but if they are finally able match their skills, to experience, and confidence, stars are born.  Florida loves to run, so expect him to be in scoring position a lot for their big bats (Cantu, Ramirez, & Uggla)

RBIs

 Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD, 3B: Ranked 64th in MLB in RBI’s.  40 RBI’s (1 more than Wright, Sizemore, Holliday, and tied with Beltran, Kemp & Bruce)

THE FIX:  Kouz won’t really help or hurt too many categories, but he can drive in runs.  For a quick pick me up, plug him into your UTL role for a few weeks, and the results will surprise you.

Home Runs Cody Ross, FLA, OF:  Ranked 42nd in MLB in HR’s. 13 HR’s have him 1 behind Either, VicMart, Mauer, and J Upton.  Not bad company there. THE FIX: Cody is on pace for 30 Home Runs. Really?  If you need some pop he’s your guy.

OTHER NOTABLES:

Jack Cust, OAK, DH: Ranked 42nd(TIE) in MLB in HR’s. 13 HRs.

Zach Duke, PIT, SP: Ranked 10th(TIE) in MLB in Wins. 8 Wins + 3.09 ERA.

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Dan Pollak, Fantasy Baseball, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Athletics, Songle Category Studs

 
The Injury Fix 06/24/2009
 
When you look at your roster, and see that red DL do you ask yourself:  “WHEN IS HE COMING BACK?”

We all have the resources to find out this information, but what are some solutions?  To start we need to evaluate a few criteria:
 
  • Current Roster Space (Open Bench Spots)
  • Remaining Healthy Talent
  • Position Strength
  • Free Agents
  • Type and Determined Length of Injuries
In most of my leagues there is a cap on how many pickups I can make.  Therefore, I tend to leave a roster spot or two open in my deeper leagues if I’m not impressed with the available talent.  This helps when I run out of DL spots.  Having players on your roster just for the sake of taking up space or storage is not a winning strategy. 

Many leagues tend to have 10-12 starting offensive players, and 5-7 starting pitchers / relievers.  Playing in the popular H2H format, and having one of your starting players on the DL isn’t the end world. You’re only losing out on average21-23 at bats, or one pitching start.  In a good week you may lose out on 9-10 hits, but on average it’s probably only 6-7.  True…you miss out on some Runs RBIs and SB, but if your other players are firing on all cylinders it’s usually not substantial enough to matter.  Very rarely do I lose my hitting categories by 1 Run or 1 RBI.  Over the course of a 22-24 week season it is worth the risk to conservatively manage your moves.  Think about it, if a guy steals 30 bases in a season that’s an average of 1.5 a week, if he has 100 Runs or RBIs that’s a hair more than 4 per week.   My suggestion:   do not to make rash pickups, and save your moves for when you really need them.

 If the player who went down plays a position that is easily replaceable, then it’s worth considering replacing them altogether.  Baseball injuries tend to be reoccurring, and nag the player throughout the season.    This affects their efficiency, and makes them a long-term liability.  I tend to take this approach with 3 & 4th tier players, not yearly tier 1 & 2 type talent.   Players enjoying career years who have never made a splash like this before should also be considered a liability. Never be fooled by shallow past results, winning fantasy baseball is about calculating future predictability, not name recognition and short term performance.   This year second base, catcher and shortstop are very top heavy with talent, and depth has been difficult to find. 

Sometimes I feel like I’m in med school when I learn one of my players went on the DL with a new injury. It always drove me crazy when an injury like turf toe kept my starter out for 6 weeks.  The most important thing I’ve learned is to always take the latter of the expected return dates.  I believe doctors give 2 dates, one the player wants to hear, and one the team needs to prepare for.  I’d rather plan for the worst, so if the dr. says 6-8 weeks go with the 8 weeks.  Plus, the heart of today’s athlete just isn’t what it used to be.

 
Filling the Gaps 06/15/2009
 

This morning I logged into my leagues, and did a little research of all the top teams.  There were some surprising similarities, excluding the obvious of having the top producing players.  All of them have players starting who have produced little to none all season, while the free agent pool was full of hot players.  This creates opportunities for everyone depending on how you approach it.  Whether you’re fighting your way out of the cellar, or staring down at the rest of the league from the penthouse you should always be looking to improve your team.  Teams on top who get complacent with their players will eventually start to slow because of injuries and slumps.  

Moral of the story:  Teams in first should never be done improving, and filling the gaps.  If you aren’t in first, the teams ahead of you probably aren’t doing enough to stay there, so stay the course while grabbing the hot bats & arms.  Over the course of the season Fantasy Baseball has of way of creating its own parody.

Here are some potentially available players that are excellent position fillers:

Picture

Monitor this call up: Sean Rodriguez (2B-LAA)

Picture
 
 

Its official BIG PAPI has found his swing.  3 HRs this week makes him a must own in all formats.  Expect this type of production from here on out.  Papi is a proven star, and is only 33 years old.  Don’t Delay.

Cory Hart has disappointed many fantasy owners this year as well as his own team.  With the depth in the Brewers farm system he had no room for error to start.  He came into tonight hitting .239, and that’s just not good enough for an everyday player.  Try to trade him now or just cut him.  I wouldn’t expect much the rest of the season.

TRADE HIGH:  If you own Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Raul Ibanez, or Carlos Pena now is the time to cash in on their monster first halves.   Suitors will mortgage their teams to get them.

·         Gonzalez’s first half last year dwarfed his second half and with his current start expect the same.  Last year he started with 22 HRs, but only finished with 36.  Expecting him to stay at this pace is unreasonable.

·         Miguel Tejada is 35 years old and a lifetime .289 hitter.  There is a 0% chance that he finishes hitting his current .355 unless he gets hurt.

·         Carlos Beltran is similar to Tejada.  Not in age (32) but in lifetime batting average at .283, and with his current average at .342 expect the law of baseball averages correct that.

·         Raul Ibanez is putting up Ruthian type statistics (48-20-55.325).  Playing in Philly has certainly helped, and he may very well finish with career numbers, but at 37 his pace should slow.  Cashing in now would reap huge returns.

·         Carlos Pena is 2nd in the AL with 18 HRs, but his BA is a killer at .227.  Lots of fantasy owners are grumbling because of low power numbers around the league.  There are plenty of 1B who can hit, so moving Pena at a good price shouldn’t hurt.

 
OUT MAN 06/11/2009
 

A name only the baseball gods could come up with OUTMAN.  If you haven’t heard of him yet let me introduce you to the Oakland A’s new pitching sensation Josh Outman.   After a less than impressive April where he never made it out of the 5th inning, and actually lost his starting role, he has really come on of late.   In his last 8 starts he only failed to make it through the 6th once.    With a 4-0 record, and a 49 strikeouts in 59 innings Josh can’t be ignored in any longer.    It also helps half of his games are played in that pitcher’s park over there in Oakland.   Check the FA pool immediately because Outman is only owned in 68%-CBS Sportsline, 10%-ESPN, and 63%-Yahoo. 

Picture