2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Every year there’s that one guy who spends half the season bragging about the late-round steal he picked up in your live draft. Last year, he was parading his “wizardry” with the likes of Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, and maybe even Jerome Harrison. Or in my case last season, Cedric Benson. We all hate that guy for two reasons: 1. He never shuts up. 2. You wish it was you who picked up Matt Schaub in the waning moments of your draft. You spent hours and hours forecasting performances, predicting the next fantasy savior, and T.J. Whosyourmamma guy hit the jackpot with Jamaal Charles. Who will be the player that earns you bragging rights all season? Here are a few suggestions. But, before you Joan-of-Arc me at the stake, remember; the following three backs are meant to be selected in the sixth to ninth rounds, after you’ve picked a top QB, RB, WR, and TE:  1. Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s 5’8” firecracker is ready to make an impact. Last year his carries were spotty until week ten, when Seattle’s brass had more confidence in the Cal grad. After week ten (and the final decline of backfield bust Julius Jones) Forsett touched the ball at least ten times every game except one: 22, 16, 22, 8, 13, 11, 15, 12. In week 13, he only had eight touches, but he scored a touchdown. Forsett’s main value lies in his ability to break the big play on the ground and in the air. In the four games he ran the ball at least ten times, Forsett scampered for runs of 16, 24, 24, 26, and 35 yards. In two of the games in which he didn’t get ten carries, he had catches or 45 and 47 yards. My suggestion? Forget the handcuff rumors about Leon Washington. Justin Forsett is the beast that will strike fear in your opponents hearts, like the sound of French’s M-80’s going off outside the apartment in The Departed.  2. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears Sure, the geniuses who drafted Forte in the first or second round last year probably spent their Sunday nights lamenting over a double of scotch next to the hapless chap who drafted LT in the first round. No matter how much those lonely, boozy nights cost your liver or your wallet, consider offering an olive basket, Turk Malloy style, to Mr. Forte. Why? My old fantasy football maxim: a player who has a record season probably wont’ perform up to the same level next season (Chris Johnson owners beware), and a player who had an absolutely dismal season probably won’t perform down to the same level again (thank you 2005-2006 Clinton Portis… more on that later). Forte will never be a high YPC guy; he’s only averaged 3.9 yards and 3.6 yards in his two years in the league. However, his ability to catch the ball works to his favor in Mike Martz’s wide open offense. Sure, Martz loves a pass-heavy offense, but don’t forget that Marshall Faulk thrived under Martz’s system. Forte is no Faulk, that’s for sure, but expect him to up his rushing totals, receiving totals, and touchdown totals this year. He won’t be a points titan, but he’ll be a more-than-adequate 2nd RB.  3. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins Is Clinton Portis an old man? Yes. Is he coming off an injury season? Yes. Are there other running backs ready to fill in for Bro Sweets? Yes. Is he 30-years old yet? No. Ok, so one “No” answer out of three. Not too promising. But then again, we’re talking a sixth- to tenth-round pick here. Portis played half a season last year because of a concussion he got after getting clubbed in the head by two Atlanta Falcons defenders. His legs will be fresh, and he’s capable of producing 1400+ total yards and seven or eight touchdowns. Owners forget that the former Miami Hurricane was a top-ten back in 2008, amassing nearly 1700 total yards and nine touchdowns. In fact, Portis has been a top-five to top-ten back in every season but two. Concussions are a tricky thing, just ask fantasy Superman Brian Westbrook. However, a wager on Portis in the late rounds is well worth the upside. Your liver just might thank you. Written by James Duren, exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Got any more Forgotten Firepower picks? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Clinton Portis, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Julius Jones, Brian Westbrook, Mike Martz 2 Comments Can an improved air attack, and a return to health on the ground power the Dolphins to the AFC East crown, and you to a fantasy title? To find out, I’m taking my talent to South Beach… A lot of big name players changed teams in the AFC East this off-season, but none brings a bigger impact to his new team than the Dolphins acquisition of Brandon Marshall. With a young quarterback on the cusp of stardom, two running backs capable of being a number one back on almost any other team, and now an electric number one leading a deep list of talented wide receivers, its not a stretch to imagine the Dolphins as the sleeper source for fantasy football.  QUARTERBACK Last year, Chad Henne took over at QB for the Dolphins after Chad Pennington went down with an injury. This year, firmly entrenched as the starter, Dolphins fans and fantasy football owners alike are expecting Henne to soar. Two things are going to make this happen. One is a shift from a run first offense (only two teams ran the ball more than the Dolphins last year), to a more balanced attack, likely with the all but complete elimination of the Wildcat from the playbook. The second thing is Brandon Marshall. Henne threw for nearly 3,000 yards in only 14 games last year, without a bonafide number one target (remember, Ted Ginn Jr, the number one big play threat for a good part of the season, was tied for fourth in football in passes dropped) and the expectation this year is for more, more, more. Now he has a target with three straight years of 100 catches and 1,000 yards. So what can we expect? Projections Last year Henne completed 60.8% of his passes. Expect that number to rise up to around 63%. His yards should see the biggest increase, going from 2,878 yards in 14 games, to likely 3,400 yards. His TD numbers should see a nice bump and I expect around 20 TDs, while his INT numbers from last year, sound about right to me at 14. So what is Chad Henne from a fantasy outlook? He’s on the cusp of being an every week starter, and will probably reach that expectation this year, but this is your last year you can grab him as a backup and watch first as he becomes a match up starter, then around week 11, he becomes your go to guy at the QB spot.  RUNNING BACK As I mentioned earlier, only the Jets and Panthers ran the ball more than the Dolphins, and no one scored more on the ground than Miami. This should mean that the RB situation is prime for a first round pick, right? Wrong. First of all, the changing of the offense will affect the running game (though I still expect to see Miami be a top 12 team in rushing attempts), but the days of relying on it as the everything for the team appears to be gone. Secondly, the question mark over which running back you want on your team is an important one. Ronnie Brown is coming off his second season ending surgery in three years. His career high for yards in a season is 1,008 way back in 2006. But, his nose for the end zone (31 TDs in 60 games), the explosion of the Wild Cat offense, the highlights that followed with Brown at QB, and the fact that both times he got hurt he was on his way to a very good season, has made Brown a fixture in the public mind. On the other hand, also lining up in the Miami backfield is Ricky Williams. Williams is a young 33 for a running back. Having missed what amounts to two years of football, and playing as a split time back in the last two, have kept the mileage down on a hard nose runner. Last year Williams’ yards per carry was phenomenal (he had 27 carries of more than 10 yards) and it was arguably his best since 2002. While injuries are the risk for Ronnie Brown, there is a risk for Ricky Williams too… his hands. He’s gotten better the past couple of years holding onto the ball as a part time player, but does have a tendency to put the ball on the ground. In leagues that penalize for fumbles, this could be crippling, because with a healthy Ronnie Brown, Williams will be fighting for carries. If he starts fumbling, those carries will disappear. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs will battle for the third running back position. Projections Ronnie Brown will be the starter but remains an injury risk. You should expect 13 games, 900 yards rushing with seven TDs. You can also hope for 24 receptions for 200 yards and another two TDs in the air. The ground to air game makes him a viable number two back in most formats. I don’t see reason to forecast Williams missing anytime to injury, so I think 16 games, 800 yards rushing and ten TDs – also making him a viable number two running back. Remember any week though, one of these two may be made irrelevant by the other. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs should only be drafted in the deepest of leagues, or if an injury strikes before your draft.  WIDE RECEIVER As I touched in the Chad Henne piece, Brandon Marshall is the most important piece to the Dolphin receiving core. The last time a Dolphin had over 1,000 yards was Chris Chambers way back in 2005. On top of that, they’ve never had a player with 100 receptions in their history. So to say that he brings a dynamic that the Dolphins haven’t seen in a while is a bit of an understatement. Complementing Marshall are Devone Bess and Brian Hartline. While neither is a household name, both hold value for different reasons. In Bess, the Dolphins have a WR with solid hands, who can move the chains and act as a possession man next to the elite Marshall. Consider him a poor man’s Wes Welker, and draft according, moving him up accordingly in PPR leagues, since he seems to be Henne’s security blanket. Brian Hartline is the projected starter opposite Marshall at this time, and on paper has the tools to be right there with Marshall. At 6’2’’ and possessing home run speed, Brian is able to stretch the field well, making use of Henne’s great arm strength. Hands can be a bit of a question for him, and I think he will suffer from Marshall’s presence and the rapport Henne has with Bess. Projections Brandon Marshall is a clear cut number one fantasy WR. He’s got a young QB who will get him the ball and a running game that will force the safeties to cheat in a bit. I’m going to err on the side of history and won’t give him 100 receptions, but I think 94 catches for 1,200 yards with nine TDs is a strong possibility. He’s a number one WR and will be a top ten receiver at the end of the year. I said it earlier; I think Bess is the number two man at the end of the year. Fair projection has him with 66 catches, for 600 yards but only two scores. Hartline finishes number three on the Dolphins list, with 40 catches for 525 yards and five scores. Both Bess and Hartline are better suited to be number three or flex options, but if you need one as a number two, favor Bess as I think his numbers will come across more consistently.  TIGHT END Anthony Fasano is not a star TE. He’s not the guy who scored seven TDs two years ago, but he is a better receiving option than he showed last year. Quite frankly even though the Dolphins don’t have a better option… you should. If you’re stuck in a bye week then you could do worse. Projection Fasano is one of those dime a dozen TEs who figures to have one big week at some point, leading to people thinking he’s better than he is. You shouldn’t do that. Expect 28 catches for 260 yards and 4 TDs.  DEFENSE The Dolphins are not primed to be a big defense yet. They are a 3-4 defense that lacks a prototype nose tackle, and elite pass rushers from the edge. Karlos Dansby is a fine player and a fine addition to any NFL defense, but for fantasy purposes, doesn’t do anything for your categories. The Dolphins also play some very talented passing attacks with Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh (which will have Roethlisberger back), and New England twice. They also play some great rushing teams including Baltimore, Tennessee, Cincinnatti, and the Jets twice. Look somewhere else for a starting defense. If you find yourself hard up for a matchup based defense, they do see Buffalo twice, Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit, and Chicago. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “Now as long as you hurt the other kid as bad or worse than he hurts you, you will have done your job. And I'll be proud of you.” – Dennis Reynolds Gonna swim with the Dolphins in 2010? Think they can help your fantasy squad? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Projections, 2010, NFL, Miami Dolphins, AFC East, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Brandon Marshall, Ted Ginn Jr., Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Patrick Cobbs, Lex Hilliard, Chris Chambers, Devone Bess, Brian Hartline, Wes Welker, Anthony Fasano, Karlos Dansby  The Dallas Cowboys are in the midst of running back woes, averaging around 13 rushing touchdowns each of the last three seasons. They have yet to find the perfect combination of running backs to prove Dallas is among the elite running threats. However, whether or not it is the absolute best situation in 2010-2011, I feel Marion Barber will emerge as the Cowboy’s leading fantasy running back this year. Excluding his rookie year, Barber has recorded his most touchdowns (rushing) during the two years with the least attempts (135 attempts for 14 TD in 06-07, and 204 attempts for 10 TD in 07-08). Also, his two best years came at the time when Julius Jones was still a Cowboy. Before you get ahead of yourself by saying Barber needs Good Ole’ Julius back, that is not my point. My point is, the Cowboys need to use Barber the way he should be used, a third down, red zone, and goal line back, which means he should not be starting the game. It seemed like Dallas’ experiment to have Barber as the starting back failed, because the last two years have been his worse. His two best seasons though, (2006-2008), were the years Barber started only once in 32 games played (In 08-09 he started 13 of 15, and in 09-10 he started in all 15 of his games). Dallas’ current running back situation reminds me of the Julius Jones era, which is a good thing. Barber is in line to get third down carries while Felix Jones is healthy and ready to start in the backfield. The addition of Dez Bryant and emergence of top wide-out Miles Austin will also help the Dallas running backs spread the field, giving more room for Barber to gain extra yards and pound the ball in. I actually tend to believe the production of Felix Jones and Marion Barber has a direct correlation. When Felix’s rushing goes up, so does Barber’s. While Jones may rush for more yards and see more carries, that may mean Barber gets more at the goal line and less on routine 1st and 2nd down plays. Currently, Barber is being drafted as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, but I think he should produce high-end RB2 numbers. He has the potential to reach high-teen touchdowns and near the 1,000-yard mark. I like Barber more than Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Beanie Wells, and LeSean McCoy this year, (I know, call me bold… but it’s true), all of whom are being drafted ahead of Barber. However, I’m an upside and experience type of guy, both of which Barber has. So when it comes to snagging my second running in the draft, I’ll gladly wait a few rounds, sip my soda, and announce my selection to the room… Marion Barber. 2009- Dallas was ranked 7th in rushing with 14 TD’s (436 attempts) 2008- Dallas was ranked 21st in rushing with 12 TD’s (401 attempts) 2007- Dallas was ranked 17th in rushing with 14 TD’s (419 attempts) 2006- Dallas was ranked 13th in rushing with 21 TD’s (472 attempts) Marion Barber: 2009- 214 at, 932 yd, 7 td (Felix Jones: 116-685-3, Tashard Choice: 64-349-3) 2008- 238 at, 885 yd, 7 td (Felix Jones: 30-266-3, Tashard Choice: 92-472-2) 2007- 204 at, 975 yd, 10 td (Julius Jones: 164-588-2) 2006- 135 at, 654 yd, 14 td (Julius Jones: 267-1084-4) Pure rushing FP for MB3 (without fumbles): 2009- 135.2 2008- 130.5 2007- 157.5 2006- 149.4 Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy What do you think about Barber this year? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Marian Barber, Dallas Cowboys, Julius Jones, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Felix Jones  There has been much written and said about the changes in the NFL. A rushing league has morphed into a passing league; and with it a dramatic shift in fantasy draft strategy. Five years ago, anything besides a running back/running back strategy would be blasphemy. Today we've flipped the script and a WR/WR strategy might be your best bet. The reality today is that you need to take a WR within the first 3 rounds; and you can't blow one of those early picks if you hope to remain afloat (unless you luck out with sleeper hits like last year’s Jamal Charles or Miles Austin). When picking your No.1 receiver, you want someone consistent with a small downside; avoid drafting Tara Reid and Britney Spears. This year, the clear cut No.1 WR is Andre Johnson. In three of the last four seasons Andre has played every game and during those three seasons he’s averaged: 106 REC, 1,430 YDS and seven TD. His age, consistent production and QB situation make him the ideal first receiver off the board (especially in a PPR league). So the real competition is for that second WR off the board – let’s examine the contenders: Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Wayne. First we want someone that has consistently produced. Remember, your top WR is probably coming within the first 30 picks; you screw those picks up and face fantasy death. Personally, Miles Austin, helped me win a league last year, but the Cowboys have lots of mouths to feed and defenses will key on Austin this year. Plus, I worry about the fact that no other team spotted his talent; I worry about a one-year wonder scenario. DeSean Jackson is another extremely exciting player, but he relies on hard to replicate big plays and receives very few targets in the red zone; nine targets and two TD’s (that’s less targets and TD’s than Laveranues Coles; compare his stats to Fitzgerald’s 23 targets and 10 TD's or Moss’ 21 targets and eight TD's). To top it off, DeSean is a loose cannon, who could forget his fantasy killing-spike on the one-yard line? If you’re like me and can’t handle that type of excitement, let someone else grab him. Finally, we have Calvin Johnson aka “Megatron,” unfortunately he hasn’t proven to be as indestructible as his Alien namesake, so I’m not ready to give him the number two slot quite yet. In the consistent producer category we have Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall. The test amongst these consistent producing wide receivers is whether they can continue their productivity. Marshall fails this test. He's got the skills, but the fantasy landscape is littered with QB’s who had a nice run and subsequently murdered their owners the following years (um, Derek Anderson). Needles to say, I’m not ready to buy into the Henne era. I know Marshall has produced with various QB’s, but throw in the fact that he’s moving to a running team and I don’t want that potential headache if I can avoid it. Larry Fitzgerald deserves a category unto himself. He might be the most talented WR in the league, over the last three years he’s averaged 97 receptions, 1,310 yards and just shy of 12 TD’s per year. BUT, he enters the season with a bad MCL and a completely restructured team. He’ll no longer have God’s favorite player throwing him the ball and he’s lost his running mate, Anquan Boldin. While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet might prove to be adequate replacements, there is no replacement for Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart’s most famous completion since college was taking down a three-foot beer bong. Derek Anderson is still dining out on a nice ten game stretch from 2007. Talent might shine through for Fitzgerald and it’s tough to call a guy with his credentials a gamble, but we’ve seen what happens when a great receiver is stuck with a mediocre QB (see Randy Moss/Raiders Quarterbacks vs. Randy Moss/Brady/Culpepper). Unless Warner decides to lace them up one more time, Fitzgerald isn’t the #2 wide receiver. So we are left with a couple of “old-timers” Randy Moss (three year averages: 83 rec. 1255 yds 15 TD’s) and Reggie Wayne (three year averages: 95 rec. 1306 yds, 8+ TD’s). There are questions with these two — they’ve both played a lot of games and in the case of Wayne, looked like they were slowing down (he really faded over the last nine games of last season, scoring eight or LESS points in seven of those games). Randy Moss is undoubtedly the man in New England, although there are some age concerns with him and there may or may not be a Wes Welker in the slot to take the pressure off (note: Julian Edelman is arguably a Welker Clone). Still, both have Hall of fame QB’s throwing them the ball with solid offenses that will provide them plenty of chances to score. Wayne’s slowdown is worrisome because of the plethora of receivers on the Colts. Remember the subtle shift from Harrison to Wayne… didn’t last year feel like a replay with a shift from Wayne to Garcon? The Patriots will enter this season motivated; they’ve watched the Jets on “Hard Knocks,” fumed over an epic beat down by the Ravens and they have a disrespected Brady looking for a new contract. With all that, the Patriots have something to prove and Moss will be a major beneficiary. Couple that with Randy Moss’s Jerry Rice like consistency and longevity, and he’s a better fantasy bet than Fitzgerald and Wayne. Take Moss as the #2 wide receiver and, as he would say, you are “straight cash hommie.” Written exclusively by Chris Summers for www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an attorney, who lives and breathes sports in sunny California. Look for more of his great insight weekly. Think Randy Moss deserves to be the number two Wide Receiver taken off the board? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Wide Receivers, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Jamaal Charles, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Laveranues Coles, Anquan Boldin, Jerry Rice, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it's the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns... something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Last week, we looked at a few of the wide receivers who are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). In this exciting conclusion of our series, we'll consider a few tight ends whose ADP doesn't quite match their value. (Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn't mean I don't think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn't mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.) Once upon a time there was a world of difference between your elite tight ends and the rest of the field. A small handful of owners would opt to take Tony Gonzalez or Shannon Sharpe in the middle rounds, and the rest of the field would wait until the end of the draft and consider anything they got from their TE as a bonus. Unless you landed one of the elite TEs, that roster spot was about as helpful as your kicker. As the position evolved, developing a larger role in the receiving game, the TE slot that changed from an afterthought to a luxury for a few teams is now a crucial player, expected to contribute on a weekly basis. In 2010, with more teams using big, athletic tight ends to find mismatches against the defense, the position is flush with fantasy talent. More people to love, more people to hate.  OVERRATED Owen Daniels (ADP 91, TE8) It seems that Daniels' explosion into the top tier of tight ends has been the talk of the offseason since his rookie campaign when he turned only 34 receptions into five touchdowns. While his yardage and receptions continued to climb the following seasons, the touchdowns weren't as easy to come by. Last season, he started the season on a tear with five TDs and almost 500 yards in only seven games before tearing his ACL in Buffalo. With the talent at TE this year, I am just not willing to use a pick this high on someone who still has not gotten back on the field. Passing up a potential sleeper like Justin Forsett (ADP 97) for someone only ten months removed from ACL surgery doesn't add up when there are other options available.  Jeremy Shockey (ADP 242, TE17) My problem here is not where he's being drafted but that he is being drafted at all. In almost half of all leagues (45.8%) he is clogging up valuable roster space. Aside from the fact that drafting a backup TE is unforgivable, the bottom of the draft is for high-upside players flying under the radar – Shockey is cashing checks based solely on brand name recognition. In two seasons with New Orleans he has never caught more than 50 passes in a season and has three total touchdowns. The Saints' system is designed to spread the ball around, so don't expect to see those numbers change much this season. Shockey's best football is behind him and he is a bye week replacement at best.  UNDERRATED Zach Miller (ADP 93, TE9) I'll admit this one is pretty obvious; Miller has been something of a darling for fantasy writers all offseason. His catches, yards and YAC have increased each season since he entered the league in 2007. However, trapped in an offense with Jamarcus Russell, his red zone opportunities were limited and he has scored only seven touchdowns in three years. Enter: Jason Campbell, the modest but consistent quarterback acquired by the Raiders during this year's draft who has spent the last few seasons checking down to his tight end in Washington. The WR corps in Oakland resembles the Redskins in that there is no proven, reliable target. Expect Campbell to lean heavily on Miller whose catches and yards will continue to increase and should finally get some red zone opportunities.  Chris Cooley (ADP 107, TE11) Brent Celek vaulted from a waiver pickup in 2009 to the sixth TE off the board this year (ADP 69) on the strength of a 971 yard, eight TD season. But Donovan McNabb, the man who threw seven of those touchdowns has moved on from Philadelphia and has a new tight end to target. His name is Chris Cooley and has logged less than six touchdowns in only one of the five seasons in which he played 16 games. In that one season of pay dirt drought he posted career highs with 83 receptions for 849 yards. When healthy, there has not been a more consistent tight end over the past six years (outside of the big three – Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark), and he enters 2010 with a more talented quarterback than he has ever played with. A dearth of reliable receivers in Washington will only help Cooley as his quarterback looks to him early and often. Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these tight ends are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Owen Daniels, Houston Texans, Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints, Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders, Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins, Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles, Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, Tony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, Jamarcus Russel, Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks, Shannon Sharpe PPR leagues (point-per-reception) are similar to fantasy baseball leagues with extra categories like on-base percentage or strikeouts per-nine innings because a few people in the league will always place too much weight on the extra category. When this happens, talented players may slide down the draft board because the extra category is not necessarily their strong suit. So, if you decide to try out a PPR league this year, take receptions into consideration, but remember that touchdowns and yards still get you points just like they always have. The following is a list of my running back rankings for a non-keeper, PPR league.  TIER 1 1. Chris Johnson | Tennessee Titans | 2,509 total yds, 16 total TD, 50 REC 2. Ray Rice | Baltimore Ravens | 2,041 total yds, 8 total TD, 73 REC 3. Adrian Peterson | Minnesota Vikings | 1,825, 18 total TD, 43 REC 4. Maurice Jones-Drew | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1,765 yds, 16 TD, 53 REC Few would argue against Chris Johnson being number one in a PPR format (if not all formats), but some might argue Peterson should be ranked higher than Rice. After all, Peterson narrowly outscored Rice in PPR leagues in 2009, and Chester Taylor (44 REC in 2009) has left the Vikings for the Bears, which may give Peterson more snaps on third down. However, it seems unlikely that Willis McGahee will score 14 total touchdowns again this season, so Rice should see an increase in touchdown production to go along with his high reception totals (Rice’s 78 REC in 2009 led all running backs by 15).  TIER 2 5. Frank Gore | San Francisco 49ers | 1,526 total yds, 13 total TD, 52 REC 6. Steven Jackson | St. Louis Rams | 1,738 total yds, 4 total TD, 51 REC 7. Jamaal Charles | Kansas City Chiefs | 1,417 total yds, 8 total TD, 40 REC 8. Michael Turner | Atlanta Falcons | 906 total yds, 10 total TD, 5 REC Gore missed three games last year and still finished fifth in PPR scoring with 52 catches. Like Rice, Jackson had a great year in 2009, but he only found the end zone four times. If he is healthy, Jackson is likely to see the touchdowns increase and could be an elite PPR running back. Charles also has the chance to be an elite PPR running back. Charles caught forty passes in 15 games during 2009 (only eight starts), and he might have the talent to be a top three back if Thomas Jones was not in the way. As for Turner, he has the potential for a big bounce back year on the ground, and even though he is not much of a pass catcher, the word out of Atlanta is that they are going to try to get him more involved in the passing game.  TIER 3 9. Ryan Grant | Green Bay Packers | 1,450 total yds, 11 total TD, 25 REC 10. DeAngelo Williams | Carolina Panthers | 1,369 total yds, 7 total TD, 29 REC 11. Shonn Greene | New York Jets | 540 total yds, 2 total TD, 0 REC 12. Joseph Addai | Indianapolis Colts | 1,164 total yds, 13 total TD, 51 REC 13. Rashard Mendenhall | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1,369 total yds, 8 total TD, 25 REC Grant, Williams, and Mendenhall are all fairly consistent backs (when healthy in DeAngelo’s case) who do not catch a lot of passes, but catch enough to not hurt their value too much in PPR leagues. On the other hand, Greene’s PPR value is suspect heading into 2010. In his rookie year, Greene caught zero passes and was only targeted four times. However, the upside on his rushing totals is through the roof. Addai may be the back whose value increases the most in a PPR format. Addai was one of eight backs to have at least fifty receptions last season and was 6th among backs in PPR scoring.  TIER 4 14. Pierre Thomas | New Orleans Saints | 1,095 total yds, 8 total TD, 39 REC 15. Matt Forte | Chicago Bears | 1,400 total yds, 4 total TD, 57 REC 16. Ryan Mathews | San Diego Chargers | ROOKIE 17. Jonathan Stewart | Carolina Panthers | 1,272 total yds, 11 total TD, 18 REC 18. Cedric Benson | Cincinnati Bengals | 1,362 total yds, 6 total TD, 17 REC Over the last three seasons, Thomas has seen his reception totals go from 17 to 31 to 39. If the pattern holds and Thomas gets in on some of the touchdown opportunities available due to Mike Bell’s departure, he could be a nice value pick in the 4th/5th round. Forte has averaged 60 receptions over his first two seasons and could easily increase his touchdown total from last season (four). The only concern is the addition of Chester Taylor, who could take over some of the third down and pass catching responsibilities.  TIER 5 19. Ronnie Brown | Miami Dolphins | 746 total yds, 8 total TD, 14 REC 20. Beanie Wells | Arizona Cardinals | 936 total yds, 7 total TD, 12 REC 21. Tim Hightower | Arizona Cardinals | 1,026 total yds, 8 total TD, 63 REC 22. Ricky Williams | Miami Dolphins | 1,385 total yds, 13 total TD, 35 REC 23. LeSean McCoy | Philadelphia Eagles | 945 total yds, 4 total TD, 40 REC Both Brown and Williams were productive in the Miami backfield in 2009, but if Brown is healthy all season, he figures to be the more productive back because of his rushing production (despite Williams’ 35 receptions last year). Different names, same story in Arizona. Hightower caught 63 passes last year, but Wells should be the more productive back if he cuts into Hightower’s rushing opportunities significantly. In Philly, McCoy is a nice pass catcher (40 receptions in 2009), but he may continue to have a hard time finding the end zone with Mike Bell, Michael Vick and Brent Celek being viable options around the goal line.  TIER 6 24. Knowshon Moreno | Denver Broncos | 1,160 total yds, 9 total TD, 28 REC 25. Justin Forsett | Seattle Seahawks | 969 total yds, 5 total TD, 41 REC 26. Fred Jackson | Buffalo Bills | 1,433 total yds, 4 total TD, 46 REC 27. Thomas Jones | Kansas City Chiefs | 1,460 total yds, 14 total TD, 10 REC Jackson and Jones may lose playing time to younger backs this season, but they can still be productive. Jackson was the 13th highest scoring PPR back last year thanks to 46 receptions despite only four touchdowns. Jones is not a pass catcher, and he surely will not repeat his rushing totals from last year, but Kansas City currently has him listed at the top of their depth chart. Even if Charles sees the majority of the carries, Jones may still see his share of goal line carries.  TIER 7 28. Darren Sproles | San Diego Chargers | 840 total yds, 7 total TD, 45 REC 29. Jerome Harrison | Cleveland Browns | 1,082 total yds, 7 total TD, 34 REC 30. Reggie Bush | New Orleans Saints | 725 total yds, 8 total TD, 47 REC 31. Arian Foster | Houston Texans | 350 total yds, 3 total TD, 8 REC 32. Michael Bush | Oakland Raiders | 694 total yds, 3 total TD, 17 REC Sproles should see the same amount of work in the passing game this season (45 receptions in 2009), and he could be more involved in the ground games as well after LaDanian Tomlinson’s departure. Reggie Bush has always been known as a pass catching back, but his reception totals have declined each year from 88 to 73 to 52 to 47. Foster and Michael Bush are two breakout candidates to round out the list. Foster averaged 18+ fantasy points (non-PPR) in three starts last season, and Bush could potentially reap the benefits of the Raiders realizing that Darren McFadden is not any good. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who has yet to take notes during the fall semester because he has been too busy doing mock drafts. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL. Agree or Disagree with the Rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, PPR, Points-Per-Reception, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Michael Turner, Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, Joseph Addai, Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas, Matt Forte, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, Ricky Williams, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson, Thomas Jones, Darren Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Reggie Bush, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders  The Case: Matt Moore versus Jimmy Clausen Matt Moore was handed the reins to Carolina’s offense after Jake Delhomme’s long, downward spiral finally came to an end last season. It became very evident to everyone around the NFL, including the Panthers’ brass that it was time to get a glimpse of the future, which comes in the form of Matt Moore. He led the Panthers to a 4-1 record in the final five games of the season and looked surprisingly poised while running the offense. Moore wound up with a very solid QB rating of 98.5, eight touchdowns to two interceptions and a completion percentage of 61.6. While it is true that this is a rather small sample size, Moore still managed to end up with a higher QB rating than few big-name QB’s you may have heard of (Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb). When draft day rolled around and Jimmy Clausen was passed over by every team (some twice), Carolina could not resist. The Panthers snagged him in the second round with the 16th pick. His selection seemed to signal the eventual end of the Moore era in Carolina without even as much as a full season to prove himself. Clausen comes to Carolina as a polished player who had experience in a pro-style offensive scheme under Coach Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. In almost three full seasons as a starter, Clausen threw for 8,148 yards and 60 TD (3,722 yards, 28 TD and 161.43 rating in ’09). He was the third rated passer in D-1 football behind Tim Tebow and Kellen Moore. The Verdict: It appears as though Carolina will get Clausen as much playing time as possible in the preseason. In the first preseason game, Claussen went 8-15 for 80 yards with an INT while Moore was in for only three possessions. Both Claussen and Moore had problems with protection and penalties by the offensive line so it was tough to gauge either QB’s performance. While they are not in a huge rush to get him under center for the regular season, it’s become apparent that Clausen is the QB of the future in Carolina. Moore is viewed more as a stopgap player who will keep the starting QB spot warm for Clausen, who has a higher ceiling than Moore. Once Moore starts to stumble or Carolina falls out of playoff contention, Clausen is sure to get the call later this season and should be ready to fly for 2011. Written by Rosti Satanovsky exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter@TheSportsFariah How long do you think Matt Moore will hold the job for? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Roto, QB Matchup, Carolina Panthers, Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen, Charlie Weis, Notre Dame, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb Every season, we under or overvalue players in the offseason; it’s the nature of the beast. Whether it is personnel changes around them, scheme changes, or injury concerns… something jumps out and makes us either love or hate a player before the season even begins. Last week, we looked at a few of the running backs who are undervalued and overvalued, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP). Today, we’ll consider some wide receivers whose ADP doesn’t quite match their value. (Note that just because I think someone is overrated, doesn’t mean I don’t think they will perform this season. I just think the cost of drafting them is too high. Likewise, if someone is underrated, it doesn’t mean they will be the top fantasy scorer at their position, just that they will outperform their draft position.)  OVERRATED Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 12, WR2) By general consensus, he is no worse than the second best receiver in the NFL. Unfortunately, the man responsible for getting him the ball this year is no longer a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback – he may not even be a starting-caliber quarterback. With Matt Leinart taking over for the retired Kurt Warner, the degree of difficulty has increased exponentially. The coaching staff has no misconceptions about the change at quarterback, and is responding by shifting from a pass-heavy system to a more balanced offense. The end result of all this is that Fitz will see fewer targets this season, and they will be coming from a less talented quarterback. If any receiver in the NFL can make the best of this situation it is Fitzgerald, but history shows that his best isn’t good enough to make him the second WR drafted. The last time someone other than Warner led the Arizona offense was in 2005, when Leinart started 11 games. Fitzgerald finished the season with 946 yards and six TDs, logging 100+ yards only twice in 13 contests. He finished the season as the 24th WR in fantasy.  DeSean Jackson (ADP 28, WR9) After an impressive rookie season in which he set a handful of franchise records, Jackson showed no signs of slowing down last season, racking up 1167 receiving yards for nine TDs. Those numbers – both top 10 throughout the league – combined with his explosive ability in the return game, should make Jackson a solid WR1. While the return game ability isn’t going anywhere, let’s take a closer look at the receiving numbers. Jackson caught only one more pass in 2009 than he did in his rookie season, relying more on the long ball to boost his stats. Of his ten offensive TDs last season (one rushing), eight of them went for 50+ yards. For any player, this should raise a few red flags. In Philadelphia this season, with a noodle-armed first time starter Kevin Kolb under center, there are more red flags than a communist parade. Jackson has a tremendous ability to get yards after the catch, but shouldn’t see as many deep balls as he has in the past. While his yardage may dip a bit, a drop in touchdowns will be the main source of frustration for fantasy owners. Expect a similar season to the one Greg Jennings had in 2009 when his TDs went from nine to four, knocking him from fourth to 21st at his position.  Mike Sims-Walker (ADP 53, WR18) The Jaguars have not produced a 1,000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith, who averaged 1,117 yards per season in Jacksonville, and retired after the 2005 season. If Mike Sims-Walker hopes to break that streak, and become a fantasy celebrity, he’ll need to be a lot more consistent in 2010. Just glancing at his totals from 2009, Sims-Walker appears to be a star on the rise, but managers who owned him last season can attest that he often left you pulling your hair out as he regularly disappeared from games. Including a Week 5 benching in Seattle, Sims-Walker recorded less than five fantasy points in eight games last season. If you think you can do without your WR2 for half the season, feel free to drop an early-mid round pick on Sims-Walker.  Hakeem Nicks (ADP 54, WR19) The axiom that fantasy football, like its real life counterpart, is about this season – not last season – is absolutely true. Every season, former studs become duds and previously unknowns explode into fantasy stardom. Uncovering these gems before they become household names is every fantasy manager’s dream. Hakeem Nicks is not one of those players. The 28th WR in fantasy last year is priced at a premium in 2010 drafts on speculation, going ahead of players like Percy Harvin (ADP 58) who caught more balls than Nicks in 2009 while also contributing in the return game, and Pierre Garcon (ADP 61) who is starting for arguably the most consistent offense in NFL history. Like DeSean* Jackson, Nicks’ production is heavily dependent on the big play, with three of his six TDs coming on 50+ yard receptions. Nicks could eventually develop into a great deep threat and fill the void left by Plaxico Burress, but speculative owners are driving his price too high for the likely return.  UNDERRATED Greg Jennings (ADP 29, WR10) After turning in the third best campaign for any wide receiver in 2008 and playing for the offensive juggernaut that was the 2009 Green Bay Packers, Jennings’ numbers from last year were a huge disappointment. Drafted as a top-five WR, he ended the season outside of the top-20. But Jennings’ drop off in production should not be taken as a sign of his decline; he is 26-years old and entering the prime of his career with a top-tier quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, throwing him the ball. The Packers’ plethora of weapons, with the emergence of TE Jermichael Finley and WR James Jones alongside veteran Donald Driver, will prevent defenses from focusing too much attention on Jennings. In a year with plenty of middling talent at WR, Jennings will be taken as a low WR1 who could carry your team.  Mike Wallace (ADP 73, WR26) It may seem a bit incongruous of me, after all my long-ball bashing, to tout a receiver whose short career has been built on streaks and who owns a ridiculous 6.5:1 TD: catch ratio (compare that to Andre Johnson’s 11.2:1 and Reggie Wayne’s 10:1 in 2009). But, unlike DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace has yet to assume a starting role. W ith Santonio Holmes shipped off to the Jets, Wallace will start opposite Hines Ward. Despite this promotion, the 27th WR in fantasy last season is the 26th this year. Playing in a system in which offensive coordinator Bruce Arians hopes to produce a 4,000 yard passer, Wallace has more upside than Hakeem Nicks, but is going 20 spots lower. While the big plays may not come as frequently as they did in 2009, his targets will skyrocket.  Wes Welker (ADP 77, WR29) The surprisingly quick recovery that Wes Welker has made from a torn ACL and MCL in Week 17 of last season has turned heads around both the NFL and fantasy circles. A low WR1 in standard leagues and a goldmine in PPR leagues, Welker’s recovery is being treated with skepticism by fantasy owners weary to roll the dice on a player whose game is heavily reliant on quick cuts. And for all the praise coming out of Foxborough, don’t expect the Patriots to rush Welker back prematurely. With budding star Julian Edelman waiting in the wings, delaying Welker’s return to the starting lineup may be the best thing for the team and fantasy owners. Slowly easing him into the starting lineup would allow him to get back to full strength and prevent further injury. In the middle rounds when most owners are scratching their heads deciding which ho-hum WR is least distasteful, I won’t hesitate to snag Welker and leave him on my bench until he’s back midseason. Note: This strategy is an absolute steal in keeper leagues, but you may have to grab him a round earlier.  Malcom Floyd (ADP 101, WR36) If Vincent Jackson makes good on his threat to holdout through the entire 2010 season – and all reports are that he will – how does his replacement fall this far in drafts? Last year, as a fourth option behind Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, Floyd posted modest but consistent numbers. Working as the WR1 all offseason, Floyd should be in for a vastly increased workload in an offense that will rely on the arm of Philip Rivers to setup the run for rookie Ryan Mathews. If Jackson returns, Floyd’s value takes a bit of a dive, but even then Floyd’s status as WR1 will be safe for a time as Jackson serves his three game suspension. Drafted immediately before Antonio Bryant (buried in a surprising talented depth chart in Cincinnati) and Lee Evans (buried in a disastrous Buffalo offense), the risk is well worth the potential reward for Floyd. *Average Draft Picks taken from mockdraftcentral.com Written by Chris Sheehan exclusively for the www.thefantasyfix.com. Chris is an avid football fan and has been playing fantasy football for over ten years. Check back for more great articles from him weekly. Do you agree/disagree that these wide receivers are over or underrated? Which other players do you feel fit into this category? Leave us a comment or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, ADP, Draft, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Greg Jennings, Mike Sims-Walker, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Pierre Garcon, Plaxico Burress, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Donald Driver, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Wes Welker, Malcom Floyd, Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ryan Mathews, Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Chargers For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the New York Jets are a contender to win their first Superbowl. Last year, they were one half away from going to the big show. They have one of the strongest offensive lines in the league, added a Superbowl MVP at WR (Santonio Holmes) to a unit that already had a very talented possession receiver (Jerricho Cotchery) and a big play (and big drop) WR (Braylon Edwards). They also have a defense that was ranked number one last year, and added former pro bowlers Jason Taylor and Antonio Cromartie. As if that’s not enough, they move into a brand new, state of the art stadium that no longer has another team’s name on it. All that may seem well and good, but let’s face it, you’re here to ask what does it mean from a fantasy perspective, and unfortunately to Jets’ fans the answers aren’t as rosy. The Jets’ offense is its biggest question mark coming into this season. The offense starts with the running game, which was the NFL’s number one rated ground game last season.  Running Backs The Jets made a huge change to their running attack when they released incumbent starter Thomas Jones and his 1400 yards with 14 TD last year. TJ, who had in his three years with the Jets carried 931 times, was on the wrong side of 30, and the Jets decided that the slowdown Jones showed in the postseason, was enough to send him on his way. In his place steps Shonn Greene who certainly looked like the real deal in the playoffs last year, when he rushed 54 times for 304 yards, averaging a robust 5.6 yards per carry, before being hurt against the Colts in the AFC title game. The Jets are certainly banking on a full season repeat of those games. That’s high hopes, for a rookie who only had 108 total carries last year, but with the offensive line intact except for Left Guard, its certainly possible. The other big changes to the running game were in the area of third down back, where shifty runner and pass catcher Leon Washington was traded during the draft. Leon’s main place on the job was using his potentially game-breaking speed in open space, creating long gains. When a broken leg ended his season with the Jets, after he had threatened a holdout, it wasn’t a surprise the Jets looked to change-up. The change though, was the unexpected addition of former MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. Clearly LT isn’t the same player he was setting all those rushing records with the Chargers, and some would argue he’s never been as classy as he’s been portrayed. What he can do though, is act a great mentor to Greene, and serve as the best pass catching RB the Jets have ever had. The number three running back figures to be fourth round pick Joe McKnight. Barring injury or blowout, its unlikely McKnight sees more than five carries per game. Projections - Shonn Greene projects to be a borderline number one RB, but best fits the bill as a number two RB with tremendous upside. A safe projection for Shonn is 1150 yards, with 12 TD. Tomlinson should see close to 600 all purpose yards, and with his nose for the endzone, could end up vulturing maybe 8 TD. McKnight doesn’t warrant drafting at this time.  Quarterback Mark Sanchez started 15 games last year for the Jets, and had what has to be called a disappointing rookie season. His TD/INT Ratio was 12:20, and threw at least one pick in eight games and four with multiple interceptions. His completion percentage was a middling 53.8% and topped 60% in only three games. Despite this, the Jets are pleased with Sanchez, and feel that he could break out in a big way this year. The reason can be traced to the playoffs, and more specifically the AFC Title game, where Sanchez led his team to within one-half of the Superbowl, highlighted by an 80-yard hook up with Braylon Edwards in the second quarter. For the game, Sanchez completed just over 56 percent of his passes, but the leadership he showed, was impressive to most. In the playoffs overall, he was 41 for 68, a 60.3 completion percentage with a 4:2 TD/INT ratio. Looking ahead, Sanchez will have Cotchery and Edwards for a full season, as well as Santonio Holmes for 12 games. Plus, the Jets will likely make more of an effort to incorporate talented pass catcher Dustin Keller into the game, and LaDainian Tomlinson out of the backfield on 3rd downs. All in all, they stand to be a far superior passing targets to last year. Mark Brunell was signed to be the back-up to mentor Sanchez, and should not cut into the playing time of Sanchez at all. Erik Ainge and Kellen Clemens are competing for the number three QB spot. Projections - Mark Sanchez doesn’t project to be a starter in fantasy this year, but with the weapons he has available to him, and the fact that there isn’t going to be anyone gunning for snaps against him, Sanchez fits in nicely as a solid number 2 QB with the weapons to be a number one. If the team decides to open up the offense for him, then 3,000 yards / 16 TD / 10 INT is a fair projection.  Wide Receiver Jerricho Cotchery continues to be one of the leagues most consistent, yet underrated wide receivers. Consider that Jerricho has caught at least 57 passes each year since 2006 and has yet to produce under 800 yards, while routinely being considered the number two WR. His underwhelming TD production may speak more to the Jets decision to run the ball down in the trenches. Lining up opposite Cotchery figures to be Santonio Holmes once he serves his 4 game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Holmes, a former Superbowl MVP, finished last year tied for number two (Miles Austin) in plays of over 20 yards with 21. Holmes recorded eight games with at least 80 yards receiving, and in any game in which he recorded at least three catches, he finished with 70 plus yards. It’s also worth paying attention to the fact that Holmes is playing in the last year of his contract, and would love to audition for the Jets or any other team that is willing to pay for him. Also in a contract year is last year’s midseason acquisition, Braylon Edwards. Edwards was expected to break games wide open for the Jets last year, however Sanchez’s struggles combined with Edwards struggles to hold onto the ball, led some of the wonder to fizzle out. Even with the struggles, Braylon recorded four TD and 541 yards on just 35 catches, good for a 15.5 Y/R. Edwards is the type of WR that drives you crazy, because his talent is obvious when you watch him, but his inconsistencies make you think he lacks the determination to perform at the elite level for more than spurts. Now with Holmes on board, Edwards is expected to be the slot receiver, meaning he will draw the nickel back or safety more times than not. Considering that at 6’3” with great downfield speed, Edwards has the physical tools to dominate number one defensive backs. Going up against a team’s number three should make for numbers akin to what he had in his Pro Bowl season of 07. At this time, Brad Smith and Laveranues Coles will likely round at the four and five WR spots. Projections – Jerricho Cotchery should continue his steady numbers, and expecting 67 catches for 850 yards and three TD seems a fair placement for him. Consider him a number three WR for fantasy purposes, as his lack of scoring will prevent him from being a star. Santonio Holmes will only play in 12 games this year, but should still remain in the neighborhood of 58 catches for 855 yards with five TD, making him a number two WR. Braylon Edwards in my mind, is the WR to watch on this team. Playing in the slot with two other exceptional possession wide-outs surrounding him, look for somewhere to the tune of 58 catches, 880 yards, and five TD. Brad Smith, who operates the Jets hybrid Wild Cat formation has little fantasy value. Coles has less at this time.  Tight End Dustin Keller should be a very good TE in fantasy football. He’s a decent route runner with good hands, who is not often called upon to block. Dustin’s game hasn’t matched up to his expectations, despite some individual flashes. I bring this up because good pass catching tight ends are supposed to be a target down in the red zone, but five TD in 30 games, just isn’t going to cut it for anyone’s number two fantasy TE, let alone a guy some predicted could be a number one. Yet, like most Jets I’ve talked about, the playoffs last year served as something of a coming out party as Keller caught 12 balls for 181 yards and three TD. Except Keller to be a bigger part of this offense, but draft him as a number two TE.  Defense The defensive unit as a whole was among the best in fantasy last year, and this year, things should be the same. Jason Taylor was brought in to assist in getting after the QB, and throughout his career, few have been better. I see Taylor playing mainly in passing downs, and should contribute five or six sacks. Kris Jenkins being healthy makes the leagues top run defense even better, and with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the passing unit should be top five. Obviously that takes into account that Revis is signed and ready to play on opening day. If he isn’t, I don’t think his being on the team really impacts the defense from a fantasy standpoint all that much, unless you are in a league that awards points on yardage allowed. The biggest impact at corner back will come from Antonio Cromartie. The Jets brought him in to lock down the side opposite Revis, and as his ten INT in 2007 prove, Cromartie is good. He isn’t Revis good, but in fantasy, that’s better, because the ball is more likely to come his way. And the more the ball is thrown in Cromartie’s direction, the more likely he is to come away with an INT. Revis locked down other teams’ number one wide out, but he did his job so well, they just didn’t throw in his direction as much. This should be the first defense off the board. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class. Especially since I rule” – Randal Graves Believe in the Green in 2010? Think they can help your fantasy squad? Leave a comment at the top right of the post or hit us up on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, 2010, NFL, New York Jets, AFC, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Antonio Cromartie, Jason Taylor, Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Leon Washington, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joe McKnight, Mark Sanchez, Mark Brunell, Erik Ainge, Kellen Clemens, Miles Austin, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, Laveranues Coles, Dustin Keller  If you’re drafting in the late first or second round of your fantasy draft, don’t worry about your Quarterback (QB) situation. Most likely three to four QB’s will have been taken already. I’m talking about Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and/or Tom Brady. That may be your blessing in disguise because Tony Romo and Philip Rivers will be the best fantasy QB’s this year. Philip Rivers has one of the best starts to a football season anyone could ask for. In the first nine weeks of the season, he does not play a top 13 ranked defense (rankings by NFL.com) at all. In fact, Rivers plays five of the worst seven ranked defenses during that stretch. Now that Ladainian Tomlinson is not on the team, Philip is now the unquestioned leader of the Chargers prolific offensive attack. Look for Rivers to post career numbers that surpass last year's stats. The only trouble Rivers may see will be in Cincinnati the day after Christmas. Cincinnati has a good defense and a talented young secondary that could put a vice grip on Rivers' fantasy numbers, which happens to be the Championship Week (Week 16) for most leagues. If you’re planning on drafting Rivers, look for a QB with a better match-up in week 16 for plan B in case of bad weather. Don’t get caught sticking your tongue on a frozen pole. Now on the other hand, if you like blonds and barbecued ribs, then Tony Romo is your man. Although Romo does not have the favorable match-ups that Philip Rivers has during the course of the year, he does have the best fantasy match-ups during Championship Weeks (14,15 and 16). He is the only QB of the top six (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers) that is playing two home games and an away game that is indoors. The Cowboys play the Cardinals in week 16 in Arizona. The Cowboys-Cardinals game in Arizona is traditionally another home game for the Cowboys due to the large following and fan base for the Cowboys in Arizona. Romo has played the Cardinals in Arizona twice in his career and each time he has put up 300+ passing yards and at least 2 touchdowns. Selecting Romo will hopefully mean that you have already chosen a top tier running back or receiver, because he will not post better season numbers than the other five top QB’s. That being said, he will have the best week 14, 15 and 16 stats out of everyone. Get in your fantasy playoffs and let Tony be the tiger on your team. Written by Mike Rodriguez exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can email him: Mike(at)TheFantasyFix(dot)com or Follow him on the Twitter account he doesn't use: @FantasyFix_Mike Who are you going with? Romo or Rivers? Someone else? Let us know. Leave a comment at the top right of the post or hit us up on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, 2010, NFL, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ladainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots | CategoriesAll  |
RSS Feed