2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
  Marshawn Lynch (credits below) Alright, folks, be honest. You’re here because you have a Seahawk or Ram player deciding your fantasy football playoff matchup, and not because you actually care about the game, right? That’s what I thought… With 49ers/Steelers and Saints/Falcons on the horizon, this is our last week of lackluster Monday Night Football matchups so stick with me! Both of tonight’s teams have a better chance at a top 10 pick than they do a playoff spot, but there’s still plenty of interest in tonight’s game for all of us fantasy nerds. Before we get to that, however, let’s do a quick Week 14 reset and take a look at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today (take these with a grain of salt since some are based on tiebreakers): AFC First-Round Byes: Houston and Baltimore Wild Card Matchups: Pittsburgh at Denver, New York Jets at New England NFC First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco Wild Card Matchups: Atlanta at New York Giants, Detroit at New Orleans Before we get to tonight’s NFC show-stopper, let’s take our weekly trip around the league to see what happened yesterday (Since it was five days ago, I’ll save you the details from Thursday other than to say that no one should be starting any Cleveland Browns but pretty much everyone should be starting Antonio Brown): Early-game action had T.J. Yates carrying the Texans over the Bengals, Chris Johnson reverting back to CJ0K form as the Titans lost to the Saints, the Lions squeaking by over the Vikings (there’s an ABP out for Calvin Johnon’s hot-streak), and the Eagles starting their season way too late in beating Miami. Elsewhere, the Jets cost Todd Hailey his job in a romp over the Chiefs, Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a close one over the Panthers, Indianapolis fell to 0-13 in losing to the Ravens, and Maurice Jones-Drew went absolutely hog-wild in the Jaguars’ 41-14 win over Tampa Bay. There’s an elephant in the room when it comes to the late-games, but first: the 49ers started to lose their grasp on a 1st-round bye with a loss to the lowly Cardinals, the Packers made the Raiders wish there was a Mercy Rule, the Chargers kept their playoff hopes on life-support in beating the Bills, and the Giants took control over the NFC East in beating the Cowboys on the strength of yet another Dan Bailey icing (this time not by his own coach’s doing). And lastly…this is starting to feel like Groundhog’s Day writing this every week, but Tebow did it AGAIN! With Belichick and Brady coming to town…is this the week that the magic pixie dust runs out? As I mentioned above, neither of the teams in tonight’s game have any type of playoff ramifications to worry about, and if you look at each team’s quarterback situation, it’s not hard to see why. Former #1 pick, Sam Bradford, has all the talent in the world but has had trouble staying upright (though it looks like he’ll play tonight) while the Seahawks seem intent on running their ship aground with either Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst at the helm. I think the Rams owe Bradford another season with some actual receiving weapons at his disposal, but a top-10 pick might do wonders for this Seahawks squad. Both teams come into tonight’s game in the bottom-half of the league in the major offensive and defensive categories (outside of rushing yards allowed for Seattle and passing yards allowed for St. Louis). In looking at those numbers, it’s not very hard to see why both of these teams are pretty darn close to a barren wasteland for fantasy owners. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd have been staples for fantasy owners this year, but both have been struggling as of late (Jackson hasn’t had double-digit points for four weeks) and are no longer the safe plays they were earlier in the season. On the Seattle side of the ball, the aforementioned Tavaris Jackson has pretty much sapped any fantasy value from his banged-up receiving corps and Marshawn Lynch is really the only Seahawk worth owning right now (outside of their defense for tonight’s matchup). Fantasy-wise, I could definitely see Steven Jackson struggling against Seattle’s 11th-ranked run defense – especially if Seattle goes up early. I was a little down on Brandon Lloyd all week with rumors that Kellen Clemens or Tom Brandstater would be throwing him the ball, but I think his owners can breathe a little easier with Bradford likely to play. For Seattle, I think anyone relying on Doug Baldwin or Golden Tate might be in for a bit of a letdown against the Rams’ 8th-ranked pass defense (not to mention the fact that Tavaris Jackson is the one delivering them the ball). On the bright side for the Seahawks…their defense has a great matchup and should deliver double-digit returns for those that took a risk on them. And of course, Marshawn Lynch has a juicy matchup against St. Louis 32-ranked run defense and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t continue each and every one of these streaks: 14+ fantasy points in his last five games, 100+ yards in four of his last five games, six touchdowns in his last six games. And finally, looking into my crystal ball for tonight…I’m going to predict a Seahawks victory to the tune of 24-13. As always, let’s end this week with some of top fantasy-related news from Sunday: - Greg Jennings left the Packers-Raiders game with what is being reported as an MCL injury. His timetable is still unknown, but James Jones and maybe even Donald Driver look like the ones to own if Jennings misses any time. - DeMarco Murray suffered a season-ended ankle fracture in the Cowboy’s loss Sunday Night. It was nice while it lasted, but it’s time we all drop Murray and go crying back to Felix Jones. - Matt Hasselbeck left the Titan’s game with a calf injury and was very ably replaced by rookie, Jake Locker. Locker is a VERY risky start for the fantasy playoffs, but he does have a nice matchup against the Colts next week and I think he’s worth using over about a 1/3 of QB’s in the NFL right now. - I think I might’ve mistakenly been sent back to 2008 somehow, but I seem to remember seeing Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant both rack up two rushing touchdowns yesterday. Not sure I’d bank on either going forward, but hopefully some of you benefitted from those resurgences. - I hate to over-think things and play matchups for the fantasy football playoffs, but I think it’s time to start looking at each and every QB/WR that goes up against the Patriots for the next three weeks. As such, make sure you keep tabs on Demaryius Thomas - who now has three touchdowns in his last three games, and has a VERY nice home matchup coming up against New England. Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411 (November 30, 2011 - Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America) Add Comment  Michael Crabtree QB Start: Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 14: New England) This is purely a matchup call. New England has given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko. That includes Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Mark Sanchez (twice), Vince Young, and the great Dan Orlovsky. QB Sit: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 14: Chicago Bears) Although squarely in the pro-Tebow camp for reasons unknown to even myself, I can’t help but shying away from playing Tebow this week. First of all, his interception rate is basically half of one percent. League average is just under three percent, and there’s just no way he can avoid throwing picks forever. Also, this game figures to be a tight, low scoring affair. Lots of it should be played in between the 20’s with lots of handoffs keeping the clock rolling. The number of plays each team runs will likely be well below their season average. Forgive me Father; I know not what I do. RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 14: @ Tennessee) Pierre Thomas is pretty good at football. You wouldn’t know it from the usage pattern of Sean Payton’s backfield, but he is. He averages just under five yards per carry for his career, and he’s averaging right at five yards per carry in 82 attempts this year. With Mark Ingram out, Thomas should pick up a few more carries. Although Chris Ivory might get 15 carries like he did in week 9 when Ingram was out. But, like I said, Thomas is a good football player who also has a chance to prove it this week. RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 14: @Jacksonville) How can you start Blount this week after he mustered just 19 yards on 11 carries last week in the choicest of choice matchups against Carolina? He’ll face the Jags on Sunday whose run D has had great games (held Houston to under 100 yards rushing) and awful games (gave up 115 yards to Chris Ogbonnaya). There’s just too much risk associated with Blount to be using him in the fantasy playoffs. BONUS FLEX PLAY: Brandon Saine (Green Bay Packers, Week 14: Oakland) With James Starks out, there’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to take advantage of a nice matchup against the Raiders. Ryan Grant has done nothing to show he’s any good, so why not Brandon Saine getting a little play this week? Per ProFootballFocus.com, he got 11 looks on just 21 snaps last week, and he’s been targeted seven times in the last two games. Saine is probably more interesting as a flex in a PPR league, but if you’re desperate, there’s upside here. WR Start: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 14: @ Arizona) Prior to last week, Crabtree and Antonio Brown were the only receivers with over 500 yards, 70 targets, and 40 receptions and just one touchdown. Both had big weeks and Crabtree cashed in on some of that inevitable positive regression with a touchdown while adding another 96 yards. Now, Crabtree, Brown, and Reggie Wayne are the only three receivers with 600+ yards, 45+ receptions and 75+ targets that don’t have at least three touchdowns. So there’s more positive regression in store for Crabtree, and he faces the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers. WR Sit: Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys, Week 14: New York Giants) Like Blount, there’s simply too much risk associated with starting Austin in the fantasy playoffs. Who knows how healthy he really is and if he’ll be able to play a full complement of snaps. And with Laurent Robinson having filled in more-than-adequately, who knows how targets will be distributed with Austin, Robinson, and Dez Bryant all in the lineup. If you’re in a two week playoff matchup or looking for an upside play, Austin might not be a bad play, but, for me, there’s just too much risk in playing him. TE Start: Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 14: Kansas City) From my favorite fantasy football Twitter account to follow, @PFF_MikeClay: Tight Ends are enjoying a 14.1 YPR and 17% TD rate against the Chiefs this year. Most generous to TEs in both categories. That’s a good enough reason to start a borderline top ten TE if you ask me. TE Sit: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 14: Houston Texans) Gresham will probably get his usual four or five catches, but, against a Texans team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not likely to result in a lot of yardage or a touchdown. BONUS D/ST PLAY: Arizona Cardinals D/ST (Week 14: San Francisco 49ers) Arizona’s D has been playing well lately as they’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points in their last six games. They face a San Francisco team whose strength isn’t exactly offense and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, is due for some serious regression in the interception department (1.5% INT%). They’re available in over 95% of leagues. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned. It has been almost a year since I last exhibited disbelief in Tim Tebow.” You can recommend he do five Hail Marys and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. Week 14 Fantasy Football Previews & Predictions: Vick Back In Time To Fight Some Dolphins 12/08/2011
  Michael Vick (credits below) Welcome to Week 14 of fantasy football, hopefully you are still alive and in the playoffs. The playoffs began in many leagues last week and others begin the postseason this week. So you could be way ahead, way behind, or stuck in a tight battle in a league with two-week playoff rounds or just getting your postseason started. Either way, line-up decisions are getting more important to make, and more difficult as well. Injuries, particularly trying to figure out which players need to play through injury and which can afford a week or two of rest depending on their team's position, are ramped up this week and we are also seeing teams giving some younger guys a chance to play at the expense of a veteran that you may be counting on. Either way, we'll try to get you advancing on to Week 15. Cleveland at Pittsburgh: When Cleveland is on offense, the Pittsburgh defense is the only one you want on your roster. Ben Roethlisberger should put on a prime-time performance with Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace proving last week there is enough balls to go around to keep both of them fantasy starters. Rashard Mendenhall is a good play too. Kansas City at New York Jets: Kansas City is another team you want no part of except for the opponents' defense, so play the Jets D if you can. You don't love many of your Jets either, although the match-up with the Chiefs is tempting to play Shonn Greene and Dustin Keller in standard leagues and Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes in deeper leagues. Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: I see a defensive struggle here with both defenses a safe pick-up if you are in need. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only offensive player I want in my lineup for the playoffs. New England at Washington: Tom Brady will air it out and Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski are obvious picks, but there could be enough touchdowns to make Aaron Hernandez a reliable tight end as well. I love the Patriots defense as the Redskins are another team with nobody I want in my playoff lineup. Atlanta at Carolina: This will be a shootout and you can count on another big day from Cam Newton and Steve Smith. Matt Ryan should get near 20 fantasy points too and those who have been disappointed by taking Roddy White early in the draft should get their reward in time for the playoffs. Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Baltimore defense is your top unit this week while Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Anquan Boldin should be among the best at their position. Philadelphia at Miami: Mike Vick back just in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I have a hard time trusting him in his return. If I've got another QB playing well in recent week or with a favorable matchup, I might think about keeping Vick on the bench and going with my other alternative. I've given up (finally!!) on DeSean Jackson, so Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy are the only Eagles I like. Matt Moore is a nice deeper league play while Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall are flex calls in standard leagues. Minnesota at Detroit: Love the Lions to bounce back here with a big offensive day from Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Maurice Morris and their defense is a safe play as well. You hope to get Adrian Peterson back for the playoffs, but if not, Toby Gerhart should be a capable fill-in and I also like Percy Harvin to make more big plays. New Orleans at Tennessee: I see a slight setback for the Saints passing game, so while Brees will still be good, Marques Colston and Jimmie Graham are the only receivers I feel real good about. Mark Ingram could continue to see a bigger workload and get into double digits for fantasy points. Chris Johnson is the only Titan you want. Houston at Cincinnati: Andy Dalton is one of those lower-rated quarterbacks I might consider over Michael Vick this week because I think he will get 18-20 points and Jermaine Gresham and AJ Green are solid starts along with Cedric Benson. The Bengals defense is also a good play against an injury-plagued Texans team. I want no part of Houston's passing game, but Arian Foster is obvious and Ben Tate should be fine in deeper leagues. Chicago at Denver: The Bears are a mess on offense and suddenly have no must-starts. I am buying Marion Barber as an RB2 who can get you yards and touchdowns, but I trust nobody in Chicago's passing game. Tim Tebow gets you his usual 18 points and Willis McGahee is good here is healthy. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are too risky for me. San Francisco at Arizona: Frank Gore has disappointed lately, but should bounce back here and get over 100 yards and a score. Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree in deeper leagues only. Love the Niners defense here. Tough match-up for Beanie Wells, so I wouldn't trust him, making Larry Fitzgerald the only must-start Cardinal. Buffalo at San Diego: I think this is high-scoring so Ryan Fitzpatrick could be back to his Week 12 level and Stevie Johnson should be good. C.J. Spiller is a decent flex too. Love the Chargers here with Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, and Ryan Matthews all worth the risk in standard leagues. Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders are beaten up, so check the inactives list, but it is hard to think anyone other than Michael Bush is a good play for them. Meanwhile, play all the Packers you usually play. New York Giants at Dallas: Another shootout, so get your studs in the game. Eli Manning will throw the ball a lot so Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are both must starts and I think Jake Ballard will be a reliable tight end. Dallas is another team to keep an eye on inactives, so play Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant, and if healthy, Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson. St. Louis at Seattle: Love the Seahawks defense here and Marshawn Lynch, but that is about it for Seattle. Not much to like on the Rams other than Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd. Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (October 29, 2011 - Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images North America)   Dez Bryant (credits below) Highlight: You’ve made it. The playoffs are finally here and you have survived. But now you’ll need to keep surviving if you want to get to the other side of the rainbow. And then there were 4, 6, or 8. In most standard leagues (12 team to be exact) only 4 to 6 players enter in the final playoff rounds. Some leagues have some crazy settings, like 2 weeks per round and bye weeks for the top two players in your league. But in the end there is only one goal that everyone in the playoffs looks to achieve. You’ll still need to stay on top of all the happenings even if you have a bye, or not in the playoffs and you are going to want to gear up for next season. With a few more major injuries to top-flight guys like Andre Johnson and Matt Forte some teams championship hopes may be dwindling before they began. So who do you play in their place? These players on the rise might surprise you more so then not. For those of you who failed to reach the playoffs this is the perfect time begin the evaluation of your teams going forward. Continuing to look at next years draft, or who you are going to keep if in a keeper or dynasty league can be just as important as having to make the right lineup decisions for the playoff matchups. Rise: Brent Celek (PHI, 19) has really picked it up over the last few weeks. Sure his week 13 performance wasn’t that great, the Eagles were down nearly the entire game, and with the clock quickly diminishing the ball needed to be aired out deeper down the field. Despite only having four targets in week 13, Celek has collected at least 4 receptions in each of his last 6 games. Of those six games only two of them did he bring in less than 60 yards receiving, and he also reached the end zone twice during that span. As Tight Ends go, Celek is getting the looks, with Vick back this week, and Fred Davis (WSH, 5) being suspended for the rest of the season take a look at Celek for the playoff push. Philly has the 9th easiest schedule for tight ends still to come, including games against the Dolphins, Jets, and Cowboys, three teams who give up more than 8 points per game to opposing tight ends. Dez Bryant (DAL, 15) has been inconsistent at best so far in his sophomore season in the NFL. Tony Romo (DAL, 7) has several weapons at his disposal including Laurent Robinson (DAL, 19) who I mentioned a few weeks ago, who has been his go to guy since Miles Austin (DAL, 49) went down with his second hamstring injury this season. Although the season has been a bit of a disappointment so far for owners of Bryant, he has scored a touchdown in three of the last 4 weeks, while also securing at least 60 yards receiving in that same span. Going forward Dez Bryant and the rest of the Cowboys wide receiver core face the 5th easiest schedule for wide outs in football. The three remaining opponents the Cowboys face are all giving up more than 20 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the Cowboys face the Giants twice. Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 11) started the season off with a bang producing two 300-yard games, and 4 multiple touchdown performances in the first 5 weeks of the season. Since then he has slightly slowed down, only breaking the 300-yard mark once since week three and only two multiple touchdown performances since week 5. However, over the last 4 weeks Sanchez has recorded double-digit fantasy points in 3 of those games, and threw for 4 touchdowns in week 12. Going forward Sanchez has a pretty favorable slate of matchups with games against the Giants, Eagles, Dolphins, and Chiefs good for the 10th easiest remaining schedule for quarterbacks in the National Football League. Sanchez is playing like a high end QB2, but with injuries to QB1’s like Matt Schaub (HOU, 15), Matt Cassel (KC, 27), Josh Freeman (TB, 19), and Jay Cutler (CHI, 22), Sanchez can step in for the playoffs nicely. Percy Harvin (MIN, 11) loves the absence of Adrian Peterson (MIN, 5). Since All day Adrian Peterson went down with a high ankle sprain, Harvin has reeled in a total of 16 passes for nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. In that span, Harvin is also getting the ball on the ground, and while he isn’t doing much with his opportunities to carry the ball (10 carries for 30 yards) he at least is getting the touches. If Harvin can continue to break the double-digit touches category for the Vikings his explosive numbers should continue. Harvin doesn’t have the most favorable set of games left in 2011 with the 11th toughest schedule for wide receivers, but as long as Peterson is out, Harvin will be the beneficiary as the main playmaker still left on the field. Fall: Matt Forte (CHI, 7) went down this past week with a sprain to the MCL, and we may get to see him again just before the regular season in the NFL comes to an end. In the interim current backup to Forte, Marion Barber (CHI, 40) will take over the starting duties for the ball club. Starting in week 4 Barber began a stretch of 5 rushing touchdowns in the next seven games, although he failed to pass the 50-yard mark during that same span. Barber may be the one getting the ball, but he has been proven not to be able to handle the full workload. Insteps Kahlil Bell (CHI, 105) who following Forte’s injury ran the ball four times for 34 yards, 10 yards shy of what Barber did with 10 more carries. The remaining schedule for the Bears isn’t very favorable for running backs as they have the 10th toughest schedule for that position. Knowing the Bears also have the 3rd easiest schedule for quarterbacks and 2nd easiest for wide outs, the Bears will probably look more to the air than the ground, which will hurt the value of any Bear in the backfield, including Forte when he returns. Beanie Wells (ARI, 10) saw a spike in fantasy production two weeks ago when he ran for more than 200-yards vs. the Rams in week 12. He followed up with a 67-yard performance in week 13 against the Cowboys a significantly tougher opponent against the run. Surprisingly Wells has been able to put together two consecutive games of 20 or more carries something he hasn’t done since weeks 4 and 5 earlier this season. Wells major downfall is his ability to stay on the field and to be healthy. His second major downfall is his schedule, with games still to come against the 49ers who have yet to give up a rushing touchdown or more than 100 yards on the ground in a single game so far this year, Cleveland, Seattle, and Cincinnati round out the rest of his 2011 schedule, the 7th toughest schedule for running backs. Not only will his health be in question but also his production. Hakeem Nicks (NYG, 11) found the end zone in week 13 twice and for only the 2nd time since week 5. Victor Cruz (NYG, 3) has stepped in as Eli Manning’s (NYG, 6) favorite target which has significantly downgraded Nicks value. Although he has failed to reach the end zone regularly, in most weeks he has been PPR gold bringing in at least 6 passes five times this season. Nicks is on my list of players falling because of the inconsistency we are getting from the former North Carolina receiver, and his remaining schedule. There are only two teams with a tougher schedule for wide receivers in the NFL, which will not help Nicks or any other Giant pass catcher the rest of the way. With the playoffs starting this week, I would absolutely begin to play the matchups with Nicks who could hurt your chances of winning if played in the wrong situation. Andre Johnson (HOU, 54) hurt himself again, this time his left hamstring. When will enough be enough though? Andre missed more than 5 games the first time he hurt himself, and while reports are much more optimistic this time around his value will continue to drop with T.J. Yates (HOU, 46) at the helm. Johnson did pull in nearly 100 yards receiving before going down with the injury which looked promising going forward but with yet another injury to his lower half that will hamper his ability to break away and cut from the defender his value will significantly drop. This is now the second season in a row where Johnson has missed time due to injuries, and the fourth time in his career where he wasn’t able to play in a full season. With the 15th toughest schedule for wide receivers and his history of missing time due to injury I strictly advice you to give up on Johnson who is turning out to be the Beanie Wells of wide receivers. Greg Olsen (CAR, 12) has been slipping down the list fast. In week 8, Olsen was able to record 13 fantasy points, since then only 8 including 4 straight 2 fantasy point outings in a row. Olsen isn’t getting the looks that he once was, and Cam Netwon (CAR, 2) seems to be doing it all by himself. The toughest part of it all is that Olsen is getting the targets, just isn’t doing anything with the ball once he does. So far in 2011, Olsen has failed to bring in at least 3 receptions only three times and prior to the bye week was able to record at least 40 yards receiving 5 times, since the bye, only once. Carolina has the third toughest schedule for tight ends still to come, which isn’t going to help Olsen’s value going forward. This is it folks, win and move on, lose, and the season is over. You need to keep up on the waivers, the injuries, and the match ups. Like I’ve said before, I’ll never tell you to bench a first or second round draft pick, but outside of those two rounds, match up play needs to be looked at with a fine toothed comb. Good luck to everyone hopefully you all reach the finals. You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix I will be on twitter answering any questions you may have from 10am – 12pm every Sunday. All stats are based on NON-PPR leagues unless otherwise stated, and are as of the end of week 13 games. (November 19, 2011 - Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)   Matt Hasselbeck (credits below) So what exactly is The Fantasy Spread? The Fix takes a look at fantasy projections and tries to determine whether ESPN got it right. So enjoy and let's hear your thoughts... QB- Matt Hasselbeck vs. NO (257 pass yds, 2 rush yds, 2tds, 18 Fantasy Pts) Glancing over the QB projections this week, I see the usual suspects atop the board, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Newton, Brees, Hasselbeck.. Wait, Matt Hasselbeck?? Thats right folks, ESPN has Matt Hasselbeck rated as the 6th best QB this week. To me, its hard to believe considering Hasselbecks last 3 games COMBINED (3, 6, 9 fantasy pts respectively) exactly equal his projection of 18 pts this week. Also, in those 3 games, he has thrown for less then 150 yds twice. I believe ESPN is under the assumption that the Titans go down big early causing Hasselbeck to throw most of the game. While that might be true, I dont see much happening there. Its also worth noting, Hasselbeck's season high in pts is 18, which he has done 3 times. I am taking the under. RB- Ray Rice vs. IND (101 rush yds, 22 rec yds, 2 tds, 24 fantasy pts) Coming in this week atop the RB projections list was none other then Ray Rice who is coming off his monster 204 rush yd, 10 rec yds, and 1td game (good for 27 fantasy pts) vs. the Browns last week. Rice also listed with ESPN's top scoring projection this week with 24 fantasy pts. Going against a weak Colts D that ranks 30th against the run, this is definately a juicy matchup for Rice. Rice has eclipsed the 24pt mark 4 times this year and is destined for a big game. This game could get out of hand quickly, and the Ravens might choose to give Rice some rest if this happens. I believe Rice has a huge day for fantasy owners, but Im not going to say he quite gets 24. Going with the under.. (But not by much) WR- Wes Welker @ WAS (91 rec. yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts) The Wes Welker of earlier this season has made a comeback the last 2 weeks with back to back 100+yd games and 2 total tds. He's coming off a 110rec yd effort although he wasnt able to get into the end zone. Welker has gone over the 100+yd mark 7 times this season and is a good bet to make it 8 this week against the Redskins. I expect Brady to find Welker often in this game and get him into the end zone. I'm taking the over. TE- Benjamin Watson @ PIT (26 rec.yds, 1td, 8 fantasy pts) Benjamin Watson scoring 8 fantasy pts vs. Pittsburghs D @ Heinz Field? Really? ESPN is basically counting on a TD from Watson this week to fulfill his projection. Yes, Watson had 155 rec. yds and a td in 2 meetings with Pittsburgh last year but I wouldnt expect him to have success this year. Watson hasn't seen the end zone since week 4 and his highest pt. total since then was in week 8 when he scored 6. Pittsburgh's pass defense ranks 2nd in the league, and the Browns have given up 30 sacks this year to opponents. Add those to playing in hostile Heinz Field..I'm taking the under. RB- Shonn Greene vs. KC (88 rush yds, 10rec yds, 1 td, 15 fantasy pts) Greene is coming off of his best game of the year in which he ran for 88 rush yds while scoring 3 tds (28 fantasy pts). The 88 yds rushing were his 2nd highest of the season behind a 112 yd. effort vs. SD and his 3 tds were more then the 2 he had for the entire season. At first glance I was going to go with the under, but coming off a 3td performance and with the Jets still playing for a playoff birth at home vs. the Chiefs who sport the 25th ranked rush defense, I'm going to go with the over. *Projections are those as predicted by ESPN standard scoring leagues Written by Michael P. exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter @prospect_101 Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (December 3, 2011 - Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images North America)   Rob Gronkowski (Credits Below) 1) ROB GRONKOWSKI ( @WASH)- One more receiving TD and Mr. Gronkowski has the all time record for tight ends with 14. He should get that this week against the Redskins. 2) JIMMY GRAHAM ( @TENN)- Graham has been running neck and neck with Gronkowski this year as the league's top fantasy TE. Last week he had seven receptions and another TD against the Lions. 3) ANTONIO GATES ( BUFF)- Gates continues to be solid for the Chargers although he only has four touchdowns on the season. The Chargers look ready to make their late season playoff push which should bode well for everyone in the San Diego offense. Antonio should have an excellent game Sunday versus the Bills. 4) JERMICHAEL FINLEY (OAK)- Finley had six catches for 81 yards and a TD last week against the Giants. He was targeted 11 times though and dropped several passes. This week he draws the Raiders who game up 30+ points to Miami last week. I expect another solid outing for Finley Sunday. 5) JASON WITTEN (NYG)- Witten hasn't done much the last two weeks but I expect a turn around this week as he faces the porous New York Giant defense. There should be a ton of points to go around in this game. 6) TONY GONZALEZ ( @CAR)- Tony went for 7 catches and 100 yards last week as he continues to be a focal point in the Falcon offense. Gonzo draws a match up with a Panther secondary that held him in check the first time the two met in Atlanta. 7) VERNON DAVIS ( @ARIZ)- Davis draws a 7 ranking this week based solely on the history of his games versus Arizona. In 11 games he has six TD's including a score earlier this year against the Cardinal defense. The Cardinals have struggled this year against the pass. Davis is a TE1 this week. 8) AARON HERNANDEZ ( @WASH)- Hernandez faces a Redskin defense that has not been too solid lately stopping the opposing team's TE's. Aaron received nine targets in last week's game but unfortunately his TD production has gone down since his mid season injury. His targets are still there making him a low lever TE1 this week. 9) KELLEN WINSLOW ( @JAX)- Winslow draws a top 10 ranking his week based on the fact that Jacksonville has struggled all year to stop the tight end position especially near the red zone. If Josh Freeman plays I like Winslow even more this week to have a great game. 10) HEATH MILLER ( CLEVE)- Again match ups rule this week's rankings as Miller has owned the Browns in the past. Cleveland does a great job also against opposing team's wideouts making Heath an even more attractive play this week. He is a low end TE1 this week. 11) BRANDON PETTIGREW (MINN)- Pettigrew torched the Vikes last time out for 11 receptions and 100+ yards receiving. After watching the Vikings secondary last week against Tim Tebow I am sure Pettigrew will be in for another great line this week. 12) JERMAINE GRESHAM (HOU)- Gresh who had a touchdown called back last week on a bad call still managed seven targets in the game versus Pittsburgh. He still remains a vital part of the Cincinnati offense and is a high end TE2 this week at home versus Houston. 13) DUSTIN KELLER 14) JAKE BALLARD 15) ED DICKSON 16) KEVIN BOSS 17) GREG OLSEN 18) JEREMY SHOCKEY 19) BRENT CELEK 20) ANTHONY FASANO 21) VISANTHE SHIANCOE 22) BEN WATSON 23) MERCEDES LEWIS 24) OWEN DANIELS Written by John Marino exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (December 3, 2011 - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)   Darrelle Revis (credits below) 1. New York Jets (KC) – Getting Palko at home is a great matchup for the Jets. In his 3 starts he has turned the ball over 7 times, while the Chiefs have only managed to score 22 points combined in those 3 games. Jets here how a very high ceiling if they can turn a turnover into a DTD, and their floor is also high as I can’t imagine a scenario where the Chiefs do a lot of damage. 2. Baltimore Ravens (IND) – Dan Orlovsky was able to put some points on the board for the Colts late in a game that had already been decided against the Patriots. I don’t think he’ll be able to do the same against the Ravens who have been really getting after it defensively the past few weeks. 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (CLE) – Colt McCoy will face a tough test in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. Peyton Hillis hasn’t lived up to his Madden cover, and McCoy’s receivers haven’t been helping him out (leading the league in drops). Pittsburgh’s offense has yet to shine on the big stage of a nationally televised game this year, but their defense seems to be a constant. 4. San Francisco 49ers (@ARI) – San Francisco completely shut down the Rams last week at home. The rams managed only 157 total yards, and were unable to put any points on the scoreboard while turning the ball over twice and giving up 4 sacks. This looks like another very good matchup against a Cardinals offense that has yet to find an offensive groove. The reason I have this premier defense behind the other 3 is merely because they’re on the road. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Niners ended up a top 3 defense this week. 5. Seattle Seahawks (STL) – Things likely won’t be getting any easier for the woeful Rams as they head up to Seattle to play on Monday Night. A normally raucous crowd, should be borderline insane as they get to be behind their team who just played exceptionally well while limiting the Eagles to 14 points. The Seahawks last week were also able to pick off Vince Young 4 times, and managed to return one back for a TD. 6. Cincinnati Bengals (HOU) – TJ Yates did a good job in his first start for Houston. He wasn’t asked to do a whole lot as the Texans got out to an early lead and he was just asked to protect it. He was 12/25 for 188 yards with 1 TD. They again relied on a heavy dose of Foster and Tate who carried the ball a combined 42 times. Cincy’s defense has been far better against the run this yer than the pass, so it will be interesting to see if Houston will have to rely on Yates to win them the game. If so, he’ll most likely be without Andre Johnson who hauled in 97 of those 188 passing yards. If the Cincy run defense holds up, which I expect, it could be an ugly day for Yates. 7. Miami Dolphins (PHI) – The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Who would have believed that 5 weeks ago when the Dolphins were 0-7. I had a good feeling about them last week, but was hesitant to have them in my top 12 until they “prove” themselves. Completely stuffing Michael Bush last week has them in my top 12 for the first time. They were 8 minutes away from shutting the Raiders out, until they gave up a couple of meaningless touchdowns. I think the Eagles could pose some problems with Vick back at the helm, but at this point of the season it’s the Eagles that have to prove to me they’re even trying anymore. What a strange season it’s been. 8. Chicago Bears (@DEN) – Tim Tebow was able to shred the Minnesota defense on Sunday. I’ve never seen a guy constantly get behind the coverage as easily as Demaryius Thomas was able to in that game. I think this matchup against the Bears will be a much harder one. The Bears know that their offense has been decimated, and the defense is prepared to carry the burden. While they lost last week to Kansas City, none of the blame could be put on the defense. They gave up only 10 points, and 7 of those were on a hail mary to end the first half. 9. Houston Texans (@CIN) – The Houston defense again led their team to a victory against the Falcons. The unit as a whole has really stepped up following the injuries to Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, and Matt Schaub. When everyone was healthy they were playing good defense, but now they’re playing great. I expect this matchup in Cincy to a defensive struggle, as two rookie quarterbacks would very well be forced to win this game with their arms. 10. Denver Broncos (CHI) – The Denver defense gave up a lot of points to Minnesota last week, but this week they get to return home to face a Bears team that is missing Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. I haven’t done the math, but I’d guess that’s like 200% of their offense. I’m only slightly exaggerating. I would take advantage of this matchup if you’re in dire need of a defense this week. 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@JAX) – I really don’t like Tampa Bay’s defense. They’re not intimidating anymore. They haven’t had any fantasy value all year. As bad as I think they are, the Jacksonville offense is just that much worse. They’re last in total offense (254.7 yds/g) and second to the last in points per game (12.7). Even Tampa Bay makes a startable fantasy option against the Jags. 12. Green Bay Packers (OAK) – The Packers’ quest for perfection came very close to coming to an unceremonious end in the Meadowlands. This week they’ll get to face an Oakland team that is still without McFadden, and most likely 2 of their most explosive wideouts in Moore and Ford. Green Bay is going to put points on the board as they always do, and I don’t expect Carson Palmer to do a whole lot in Lambeau. 13. Detroit Lions (MIN) 14. New England Patriots (@WAS) 15. New York Giants (@DAL) 16. New Orleans Saints (@TEN) 17. Atlanta Falcons (@CAR) 18. Philadelphia Eagles (@MIA) 19. Dallas Cowboys (NYG) 20. San Diego Chargers (BUF) 21. Arizona Cardinals (SF) 22. St. Louis Rams (@SEA) 23. Buffalo Bills (@SD) 24. Jacksonville Jaguars (TB) 25. Kansas City Chiefs (@NYJ) 26. Cleveland Browns (@PIT) 27. Carolina Panthers (ATL) 28. Indianapolis Colts (@BAL) 29. Minnesota Vikings (@DET) 30. Washington Redskins (NE) 31. Tennessee Titans (NO) 32. Oakland Raiders (@GB) Written by Ilyn Yeh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (October 22, 2011 - Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images North America) Week 14 Fantasy Football MarketWatch: Matt Forte Out, Marion Barber Leads The Waiver Wire 12/06/2011
  Marion Barber (credits below) If you’re reading this, it’s safe to assume you made your fantasy football playoffs. Congratulations. Since you’re in the playoffs, you probably have a pretty solid team. But if you’ve been spot starting QBs and TEs all year, or if you’re looking for a flex play or a sneaky defense, here are the best waiver wire options. The Free Market Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, 8.5% owned) Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, 7.9% owned) Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, 5.5% owned) Both Moore and Ponder have been entirely adequate over their last six games. Each guy has recorded double digit fantasy points in five of those six games, and Moore is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game while Ponder is averaging 12.3. Unfortunately, neither draws a particularly favorable matchup this week as Miami faces Philadelphia and Minnesota travels to Detroit. But Grossman has the enviable New England matchup. Since reclaiming the starting job from John Beck four games ago, Grossman has two games of four fantasy points, and he averaged twenty fantasy points between the other two. So hit or miss seems to be an accurate description of what you can expect to get from Grossman. With this matchup, “hit” is more likely than “miss.” New England is going to throw four touchdowns to Gronkowski, so you know Washington will being playing catch up against a secondary that allowed Dan Orlovsky to score 20 fantasy points last week. Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, 17.3% owned) Barber is pretty obviously the #1 pickup this week with Matt Forte injured. And although you probably shouldn’t expect too much out of Barber, he’s a no-brainer pickup if you’re looking for a flex play this week. Since the majority of your league mates are out of the running now, a #7 waiver claim or later might be enough to get you Barber. Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 10.2% owned) Brad Smith (Buffalo Bills, 0.2% owned) Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks, 0.2% owned) First of all, Williams is clearly the best widely available receiver for your flex spot this week. He’s been good over his last six games, averaging almost eight fantasy points per game, and he has a great matchup against the Saints this week. If you need a receiver/flex option and Williams is available, he’s your man. But if he’s already owned, Smith and Tate might be nice plays this week. Smith has 70+ yards in each of the last two weeks, and he led the Bills with ten targets last week. Buffalo faces an average pass defense in San Diego this week. Tate has been in on more of Seattle’s snaps recently, and he has a touchdown in each of the last two games. If you need to play Tate, you’re either desperate or in a deep league, but he could cash in again versus St. Louis this week. Demaryius Thomas (1.8% owned) and Andre Roberts (1.3% owned) had big games last week, but Thomas has a tough matchup against the Bears, and you’ll have to forgive me for not buying in on Andre Roberts. If you’re reaching this far down, Smith and Tate are more worth your flier attention. Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins, 2.2% owned) Tony Scheffler (Detroit Lions, 2.1% owned) Assuming the Ballards, Chandlers, Greshams and Celeks of the world are all owned in your league (all owned between 20-30%), then there’s not much left in the way of waiver wire tight end plays. But unless you own one of the four or five studs at the position, you’re basically just hoping to hit a touchdown in your TE slot each week. Fasano and Scheffler both play teams that are middle-of-the-pack against TEs, so maybe one of them gets in the end zone and gets you eight or nine fantasy points. Fasano is probably the preferred choice since he’s the only TE Miami has and Scheffler has to compete with Brandon Pettigrew. Seattle Seahawks D/ST (16% owned) Denver Broncos D/ST (11.5% owned) Arizona Cardinals D/ST (4.5% owned) Seattle is a great pickup this week for your D/ST spot. On the year, they’re 11th among defenses in fantasy points. They’re also coming off a 17 point week 13 performance. In week 11 they also scored 17 fantasy points when they faced the St. Louis Rams. As scheduling would have it, Seattle faces that same Rams team this week, the Rams team who allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Since week 9, Denver has averaged just over 10 fantasy points per game. This week they face the Caleb-Hanie led Bears and could very well come up with another ten fantasy points. And in the event Denver and Seattle are both owned (highly unlikely), you could feel comfortable rolling with Arizona’s defensive unit. They’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points per game over their last six, and this week they face a San Francisco team who is really good but whose strength isn’t necessarily its offense. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes comprehension of income tax material was as easy as identifying good defensive spot starts. You can tell him to quit bitching and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.   Maurice Jones-Drew (credits below) After last week’s Saints-Giants fantasy bonanza, I think we’re in for a little bit of a letdown with the Chargers and Jaguars on-tap for tonight. As I was saying last week, we need to get through tonight’s game (and then next week’s Seahawks/Rams contest) before we finish with two exciting Monday Night Football matchups: Steelers/49ers and Saints/Falcons. That being said, any game can be interesting fantasy-wise and I promise I’ll work extra hard to keep you awake this week as we preview a matchup featuring 3-8 and 4-7 teams. With three-quarters of the season in the books, it’s definitely not too early to take a look at the playoffs. If the season ended today, here’s what we’d be looking at (take these with a grain of salt since some are based on tiebreakers): AFC First-Round Byes: New England and Baltimore Wild Card Matchups: Cincinnati at Houston, Pittsburgh at Denver NFC First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco Wild Card Matchups: Chicago at Dallas, Atlanta at New Orleans Before we get to tonight’s “blockbuster”, let’s take our usual look at what else happened around the league (I won’t get into Thursday’s game too much other than to say that Marshawn Lynch needs to be in your lineup except for Week 16 vs. San Francisco, and that DeSean Jackson shouldn’t be in your starting lineup if you want any shot at winning your league): Let’s just get this out of the way now…Tim Tebow did it AGAIN! Ok, now that I’ve got the obligatory Tebow reference in here…other early-game action saw the Chris Johnson-led Titans surprisingly staying in playoff position by beating the slumping Bills, the Dolphins dismantling the Raiders (who gave up first in the AFC West to Denver), the Steelers asserting their AFC North dominance over the Bengals, and Cam Newton going hog-wild over the Josh Freeman-less Buccaneers. The Jets took advantage of 3 Shonn Greene TDs to take down the Redskins, Arian Foster led the Texans to a win over the Falcons, and the Tyler Palko led the Chiefs over Caleb Hanie and the Bears in a battle for crappy QB supremacy. In the late games on Sunday…the Packers sweated-out a close one over the Giants to keep their undefeated season alive, the Ravens beat the Browns on the strength of 206 Ray Rice rushing yards, the Cardinals benefitted from Jason Garrett brain-fart to beat the Cowboys, and the 49ers barely had to break a sweat in shutting-out the Rams. And in the Sunday Night game, the Saints marched on and handed Detroit its fifth loss in its last seven games. Despite the Chargers still being in the playoff hunt (mathematically, at least), tonight’s MNF is much better-suited to fantasy owners than it is to casual NFL fans. The Jaguars are 3-8 and just fired their coach, while the Chargers are 4-7 and will likely find themselves looking for a new coach at the end of the season, as well. The Chargers have made a living off of starting slow and finishing strong but after starting 4-1 this year, San Diego is now looking to avoid their seventh straight loss. A large reason for that (as his owners can attest to) is that Philip Rivers has more interceptions (17) than he does touchdown passes (16) this year. It also doesn’t help when your best offensive players are either wildly inconsistent (Vincent Jackson) or can’t stay healthy (Ryan Mathews, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd)… San Diego boasts the league’s 6th-best pass offense and 7th-best pass defense, but they also have the league’s 18th-ranked rushing offense and 26th-ranked rushing defense. While that might mean great things for Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates…it also means great things for someone who I was shocked to see is second in the NFL in rushing yards. Know who it is? I think we can all agree (including my wife) that I spend WAY too much time watching football, so I’m not sure how I missed this, but Maurice Jones-Drew is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,040! Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s only taken five carries to the house this year but as you saw above…the Chargers defense is ripe for the picking when it comes to giving up rushing yards. It’s a good thing for Jaguar’s fans, too, because Blaine Gabbert amazingly only has 331 more passing yards than Jones-Drew does rushing yards (in case you’re wondering…that’s NOT good). After looking at those statistics, it’s not surprising that the Jaguars have ridden Jones-Drew in becoming the 12th-ranked rushing offense in the league but have the 32nd-ranked passing attack. Outside of MJD, the Jaguars’ defense is really the focal-point of this team and should present a formidable challenge to the Chargers. The Jags come into this game ranked 3rd against the pass and 14th against the run. If they have any chance of pulling another Ravens-style upset…they’re going to have to rely on Jones-Drew to eat-up a lot of clock while their defense tries to hold Rivers and Co. at bay. Looking at this one fantasy-wise, I could see Jones-Drew having a big game tonight but other than him…there’s really no reason to own anyone else on the Jaguars unless you’re in a keeper league and trying to pull the equivalent of a “Suck for Luck” campaign. On the Chargers’ side of the ball…I envision Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert having a rough go of it tonight, while Rivers and his receiving targets put up some good numbers (and I’m not just saying that because my wife’s fantasy team needs Rivers and Gates to have a big night). One thing to note: Vincent Jackson only had three targets in the Chargers’ last game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a disappointing game tonight. All in all, I just don’t see how the Jaguars are able to keep up with the Chargers, and I’m predicting a score of 27-17, Chargers. As usual, let’s wrap it up with some of top fantasy-related news from Sunday: - Matt Forte left the Bears game with what’s being reported as an MCL sprain. Sources have him missing 2-4 games, and if that’s the case, his owners are going to have to make other plans for their playoff matchups. - Speaking of other plans, Marion Barber is pretty much assured of being this week’s top waiver-wire add. - Andre Johnson had a nice game (finally!), but had to spoil things by re-aggravating the same hamstring that made him miss all that time. The Texans are hoping this isn’t anything serious, but I think it’s time we all make arrangements for being without Johnson for our fantasy football playoffs. - James Starks sprained his ankle in Green Bay’s victory and was replaced by an ineffective Ryan Grant. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Brandon Saine is going to end up being more valuable than either of those guys. Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411 (November 26, 2011 - Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America)   Matt Moore (credits below) QB Start: Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, Week 13: Oakland) ESPN’s current player blurb on Moore claims that the Raiders are underrated against the pass. Really? How? Oakland allows the fifth most fantasy points to opposing QBs, has given up the 11th most passing yards, and has allowed the 4th highest total of passing touchdowns. And they’ve done it against inferior competition. They’ve only faced two QBs who rank among the top ten in fantasy points at that position, and they haven’t seen one of those quarterbacks since Week 5. Then there’s this from one of my favorite people on Twitter, @PFF_MikeClay: Raiders Defense has allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in 9 of their last 10 games (only exception: 0 vs. KC Wk7). Hey, Matt Moore! The list of quarterbacks that have thrown for 2+ TDs against the Raiders includes such names as: Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, and Caleb Hanie. I see absolutely see no reason why Matt Moore can’t be on that list by Sunday night. QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 13: @ Houston) Houston may be suffering in its ability to get production from its quarterback position, but they’re having no problem suppressing the production of opposing quarterbacks. Admittedly, they haven’t faced the strongest opposition, but they’ve handled weak quarterbacks as they should. They’ve allowed double digit fantasy points to quarterbacks just four times and 15+ points just once. Ryan is in the 8-12 range almost every week in the QB rankings and when he faces a strong opponent like this, he shouldn’t be above the start line. RB Start: Carolina RBs (Week 13: @ Tampa Bay) The only team worse against the run than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the team that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams play for. So this is as good as a matchup can get for the Carolina duo. God only knows which one of them will have the better day, but one or both of them should have a big day. If you just own one of the two, start him and hope it’s his day. If you own both of them, who knows? You could start them both if you’re weak at flex, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with Stewart. RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati) The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati in week 10 Mendenhall was listed in this very same space. The strength of Cincy’s run D and the fact that Mendenhall has only one game with more than 70 yards rushing (still true) were cited as reasons to leave him on your bench. Mendy racked up a whopping 44 yards on 16 carries (2.75 ypc). Unfortunately, he got in the end zone....twice. Both scores came from inside the 10, so the circumstances of the game resulted in that sit call being wrong. But it’s about process, not results, and the thinking is the same this time around. Mendenhall has sucked, Cincy’s run D hasn’t, so he shouldn’t be a top 20 RB this week. WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati) Brown is going to be listed in this spot every week until either he’s recognized as the top 20 receiver that he is or he stops playing like a top 20 receiver. He has at least eight points in his last five games (Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz are the only other receivers who can make that claim). And he’s doing it almost exclusively with yardage as he has only one TD catch. Brown is the only receiver with 700+ receiving yards and less than three touchdowns. He and Greg Little are the only receivers with 45+ receptions and 85+ plus targets with only 1 TD. Those numbers absolutely scream regression. REGRESSION! Brown is absolutely going to catch some TDs down the stretch, and after you combine that with the 90 yards he’s averaging over his last five games, he’s going to have some very big days. BONUS FLEX PLAY: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis) Speaking of regression alerts, Crabtree is only slightly less of a positive regression candidate than Brown is. Crab has over 500 yards, 74 targets, and 44 receptions, but only one touchdown. He has 13 catches the last two weeks and faces a Rams team that allows the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers. WR Sit: Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills, Week 13: Tennessee) Before his antics and performance garnered him some attention last week, Stevie had been nowhere to be found since week 3, the last time he reached double digit fantasy points prior to his 13 against the Jets. As he goes up against a Titans team that is 6th best against WRs and has a pretty decent shutdown corner in Cortland Finnegan, expect him to slip back into the obscurity of mediocrity. TE Start: Jake Ballard (New York Giants, Week 13: Green Bay) TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis) Unless you own Graham, Gronkowski, Gates, Witten, or Gonzalez, you’re just trying to guess which tight end will get in the end zone that particular week. Green Bay is really bad against tight ends, so Ballard has a shot to get you double digit points from your TE slot if he can get in the end zone. If he doesn’t, he should be safe for five points or so. As for Davis, more from @PFF_MikeClay: Vernon Davis owners -- No unit of tight ends has eclipsed 52 receiving yards in a single game vs. the Rams this season. They've allowed 1TD. Enough said. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who took a two-hour break from studying to write this. He apologizes if the words ‘statute’ or ‘doctrine’ were inadvertently typed into this article. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (November 19, 2011 - Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images North America) | CategoriesAll  |
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