No one will argue that Nelson Cruz is having a Fantasy All-Star first half. With a combination of power and speed, he has all of the tools to be a Top-10 Outfielder. BUT???
Yes, there is a but. You can argue that he is 29 (actually his birthday is 7/1) and in the prime of his career. Also, that he plays in that hitter’s park in hot and humid Arlington, TX. Plus, Nelson gets a lot of protection in that big time Rangers lineup. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be enough.
When Josh Hamilton returns it creates a log jam in the Texas OF. Everyone will suffer from shared At Bats, and without the consistency of defined roles Cruz’s numbers will fall. His batting average has already dropped below .260, and OBP in June is also under .260. Nelson knows that he is competing with Dave Murphy, Marlon Byrd, Andrew Jones, and Josh Hamilton (he is a fixture in CF, no real competition). The DH position is occupied by Hank Blaylock, but even if he is slumping they will still occasionally give him the start.
So, what to do? This is the best time you will ever have to trade him. His statistics are very appealing in comparison to other sluggers. In addition, having 12 stolen bases makes him look like a speed threat when in actuality he has only done a good job at picking and choosing his spots. In Cruz’s 557 ABs dating back 4 seasons to 2006, he has totaled 6 stolen bases. Don’t count his minor league swipes because his numbers were overinflated due to poor defensive catchers.
Whether you’re in a H2H league or Rotisserie, it has reached that point of the season where you can really take a step back and take stock of what you have. In most cases it will be obvious where you are excelling and where your weaknesses lie. If you are not sure, look on the hosting site of your league for a records section. It will have your season’s standings, and your cumulative yearly statistics. This is where you can compare your squad against your competitors, and gauge the areas in which you need to improve.
Wherever your team ranks against the rest of the league, keep in mind the fantasy regular season is only half over (74 games to be exact). By using the information you have in front of you, it is easy to make small yet winning improvements. It can sometimes feel like you want to trade or cut your entire team, but that is a failing strategy. Similar to flying a plane, small corrections are necessary to reaching your goals, and championship destination.
What I’ve done is compiled a list of players that have gone unnoticed, but can and will, improve individual statistical categories.
Strike Outs
Jorge De La Rosa, COL, SP: Ranked 18th in MLB in K’s. In 81.1 IP 87 K’s and 4 Wins.
THE FIX: You can’t ignore the Strike Outs. His ERA is a little high, but an extra ER or 2 a week is worth the risk for getting this many K’s. Plus, with how the Rockies have been playing you can expect his Wins to go up considerably.
Joe Blanton, PHI, SP: Ranked 31st in MLB in K’s. In 83.2 IP 77K’s and 4 Wins.
THE FIX: He has 1 K less then CC Sabathia in 25.1 less IP. Pitching for the World Champs has its rewards. Throwing in front of that star studded lineup will only help pile up the Wins, even though his run support has been limited thus far.
Stolen Bases
Nyjer Morgan, PIT, OF: Ranked 7th in MLB in SB’s. Included are a respectable .270 BA, and 39 Runs.
THE FIX: The departure of Nate McClouth has increased his importance to the team. Unfortunately, he is batting behind super rookie Andrew McCutchen, so it does limit his SBs a bit. Keep your eyes and ears open for a potential trade. Teams looking to get him want his speed at the top of their lineups. This will really boost his value further.
Runs
Emilio Bonifacio, FLA, 3B: Ranked 29th in the NL in Runs. His 40 Runs + 15 SBs have put him back on the radar.
THE FIX:One of the hottest players picked up in early April looks to be heating up again.My prediction is he won’t fizzle out like he did the last time. Young players tend to go through droughts, but if they are finally able match their skills, to experience, and confidence, stars are born.Florida loves to run, so expect him to be in scoring position a lot for their big bats (Cantu, Ramirez, & Uggla)
RBIs
Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD, 3B: Ranked 64th in MLB in RBI’s. 40 RBI’s (1 more than Wright, Sizemore, Holliday, and tied with Beltran, Kemp & Bruce)
THE FIX: Kouz won’t really help or hurt too many categories, but he can drive in runs. For a quick pick me up, plug him into your UTL role for a few weeks, and the results will surprise you.
Home RunsCody Ross, FLA, OF:Ranked 42nd in MLB in HR’s. 13 HR’s have him 1 behind Either, VicMart, Mauer, and J Upton.Not bad company there.THE FIX: Cody is on pace for 30 Home Runs. Really? If you need some pop he’s your guy.
OTHER NOTABLES:
Jack Cust, OAK, DH: Ranked 42nd(TIE) in MLB in HR’s. 13 HRs.
Zach Duke, PIT, SP: Ranked 10th(TIE) in MLB in Wins. 8 Wins + 3.09 ERA.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Dan Pollak, Fantasy Baseball, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Athletics, Songle Category Studs
When you look at your roster, and see that red DL do you ask yourself: “WHEN IS HE COMING BACK?”
We all have the resources to find out this information, but what are some solutions? To start we need to evaluate a few criteria:
Current Roster Space (Open Bench Spots)
Remaining Healthy Talent
Position Strength
Free Agents
Type and Determined Length of Injuries
In most of my leagues there is a cap on how many pickups I can make. Therefore, I tend to leave a roster spot or two open in my deeper leagues if I’m not impressed with the available talent. This helps when I run out of DL spots. Having players on your roster just for the sake of taking up space or storage is not a winning strategy.
Many leagues tend to have 10-12 starting offensive players, and 5-7 starting pitchers / relievers. Playing in the popular H2H format, and having one of your starting players on the DL isn’t the end world. You’re only losing out on average21-23 at bats, or one pitching start. In a good week you may lose out on 9-10 hits, but on average it’s probably only 6-7. True…you miss out on some Runs RBIs and SB, but if your other players are firing on all cylinders it’s usually not substantial enough to matter. Very rarely do I lose my hitting categories by 1 Run or 1 RBI. Over the course of a 22-24 week season it is worth the risk to conservatively manage your moves. Think about it, if a guy steals 30 bases in a season that’s an average of 1.5 a week, if he has 100 Runs or RBIs that’s a hair more than 4 per week. My suggestion: do not to make rash pickups, and save your moves for when you really need them.
If the player who went down plays a position that is easily replaceable, then it’s worth considering replacing them altogether. Baseball injuries tend to be reoccurring, and nag the player throughout the season. This affects their efficiency, and makes them a long-term liability. I tend to take this approach with 3 & 4th tier players, not yearly tier 1 & 2 type talent. Players enjoying career years who have never made a splash like this before should also be considered a liability. Never be fooled by shallow past results, winning fantasy baseball is about calculating future predictability, not name recognition and short term performance. This year second base, catcher and shortstop are very top heavy with talent, and depth has been difficult to find.
Sometimes I feel like I’m in med school when I learn one of my players went on the DL with a new injury. It always drove me crazy when an injury like turf toe kept my starter out for 6 weeks. The most important thing I’ve learned is to always take the latter of the expected return dates. I believe doctors give 2 dates, one the player wants to hear, and one the team needs to prepare for. I’d rather plan for the worst, so if the dr. says 6-8 weeks go with the 8 weeks. Plus, the heart of today’s athlete just isn’t what it used to be.
A name only the baseball gods could come up with OUTMAN.If you haven’t heard of him yet let me introduce you to the Oakland A’s new pitching sensation Josh Outman.After a less than impressive April where he never made it out of the 5th inning, and actually lost his starting role, he has really come on of late.In his last 8 starts he only failed to make it through the 6th once. With a 4-0 record, and a 49 strikeouts in 59 innings Josh can’t be ignored in any longer.It also helps half of his games are played in that pitcher’s park over there in Oakland.Check the FA pool immediately because Outman is only owned in 68%-CBS Sportsline, 10%-ESPN, and 63%-Yahoo.
How many times have you said to yourself “I should have picked him up”?
What made you not pull the trigger?
Not having enough confidence in your decision making can and will hold you back from winning.Those who believe in only luck are equally as likely to fail.I’d be lying if I told you luck had no influence on your success, but you can create your own luck.There are calculated methods I use in my leagues that have proven reliable time and time again. Now the complexity of predictability cannot be explained simply, so I will address them over the season.
First, depending on the scoring system of the league, I evaluate my needs. Unless you’re using Roto scoring with 10-12 teams and you’re up over 20 points or in a H2H league in first by 20 categories then you have needs.
Typically, the first players I look too are the top players in deep slumps.They are the ones most likely to break out.Next, and the less obvious answer, are the streaky players who have shown flashes stardom in the past, but have yet to put it together.Look for starting players that were just given a few mental days off to regroup.Surprisingly, more often than not it helps.Keep your eyes on:
In some leagues these players may be sitting right in the free agent pool.If they are not you can definitely get them for peanuts in a trade.
These are just a few players that I scouted.Keeping your eyes open for players that fall into this category is easy, and another weapon for you to use.
L.A. Times reported this morning Manny Ramirez of the LA Dodgers tested positive for Performance Enhancing Drugs.Today begins the first game of his 50 game suspension.The earliest he can return is:JULY 3rd.
Fantasy Impact:Andre Either - who bats in the cleanup spot behind Manny will not see as many good pitches to hit.No question his numbers will suffer.
Who to pick up:Juan Pierre - If your team is lacking SB this is going to be a great grab for you.He will also contribute to your Batting Average, and Runs.
The real losers are the Manny owners.He was hitting .348 with 22R 6HR 20RBI through the first week in May.In the NL those numbers make him a true Triple Crown threat.
What I would do:TRADE HIM NOW
Who would want him?Look for teams toward the top of your league.No doubt they have been riding really hot players through April, and have lots of depth.They can take Manny and stash him.While you get a viable replacement for the gap he left behind.
This is the most important time of the year after the draft.Focusing on positioning your team for the next 4 months leading into September‘s Home Stretch.Some teams right now are sitting pretty atop their league after their ALL APRIL TEAM Wowed with overachieving stats, and others sitting frustrated in the cellar with that sinking feeling of quicksand.Its time to start bottom feeding.Using the players you currently have that had an amazing April, but probably won’t sustain it for the long run, and trade it for proven consistent talent.Here is my list of Buy Low players that consistently produce, but are off to slow starts.
CGeovany Soto- Numbers have been gross ytd.His full season stats will tell a different tale.
Steal him with:Brandon Inge
1BMark Teixeira- The Top 1B have all pretty much been hitting, but if you buck up you may get him below market value.
Steal him with:Adam Dunn or Aubrey Huff (Both are off to fantastic starts to the season. Statistically superior to Tex's. Don't be afraid to add an OF or SP who are off to hot starts too)
2BAlexei Ramirez - Admitted slow starter.He may be young, but a HUGE talent. Ozzie will light the fire.
Steal him with:Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, or Freddy Sanchez (may be a stretch)
3BAlex Rodriguez – This is obvious, but there are some concerned owners worried about his surgery.
Steal him with:Ryan Zimmerman, or Chris Davis(with Davis sweeten the deal with a overachieving #3 SP)
SSJimmy Rollins – As Simon Cowellwouldsay “April was a forgettable performance”.JRoll is a top 3 SS!!!
Steal him with:Derek Jeter, or Marco Scutaro (Marco may not be enough, throw in another All April Player)
OFMatt Holliday – After leaving Colorado we all expected a drop, but his talent will prove better then this.
OFCory Hart – I’m a HUGE fan of his abilities.5 tool player, in his prime, on a stud team. The total package.
OFBJ Upton – BJ is much riskier than the first 2, if you can grab him really cheap and stash him as a 4th OFit may payoff.
Steal Holliday & Hart with:Kosuke Fukudome, Jay Bruce, Daniel Murphy, Nick Swisher, & Mike Cameron (Holliday will demand more than Hart, so you may have to do a 2-for for Matt. You may be able to steal Cory with a 1 for 1.)
Steal BJ with:Brad Hawpe, Jeff Francour, Jason Kubel, or Ryan Spilsborghs,(BJ is tough to gage because of his talent. Feel out his owners needs and use that to your advantage. You may pay Holliday & Hart type talent)
Starting Pitching and Closers need to be looked at a little differently because they aren’t every day players.You need to be more cautious trading for them because it’s easy to get burned, and the pitching carousel shuffles a lot from top to bottom and year to year.However, here is a list of pitchers you can have confidence in trading for (I’m going to leave out the top 20 SP, they should be obvious), and who I would trade because they are just a flash in the pan.
Pitchers to Get:
Rich Harden – Slow start, but if you can stomach his potential injuries, Harden has the most talent in the bigs.
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Got a sore shoulder from the WBC, but undeniable talent and consistency.
Ubaldo Jimenez – Has only had 2 poor starts both against the Dodgers, but then again everyone has.
Mike Pelfrey – The Mets are heating up and this guy is a horse.Mike is a closet Ace.
Jordan Zimmermann – Think this year’s Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and maybe Jon Lester.
Hiroki Kuroda – Coming off of a little oblique strain mid to late May.If you have a DL spot to hide him do it.
Brad Lidge – Brad’s knee was sore, now he is better.Steal him, he closes for the World Champs.
Pitchers to Trade:
Kevin Millwood – He plays in that Arlington shoebox, and is well past his prime.
Zach Duke – If you have watched him for the past 2 year you already know this.
Scott Richmond – Toronto won’t hold up this pace with so many games to play against the AL East.
Jarrod Washburn – It’s great to see him pitching well again, but on Seattle it is difficult to win.
Brian Fuentes – This guy lost his job for a spell last year with the Rockies, don’t confuse him with KROD.
RSS Feed