2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Ben Tate (credits below)
Start ‘Em 

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills, Week 17: @ New England Patriots)

The Patriots have given up at least 14 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko.  Enough said, moving on...

 Mark Sanchez (New York Jets, Week 17: @ Miami Dolphins)

The Dolphins have allowed the 7th most passing yards and the second fewest rushing yards, so the way to beat them is obviously to air it out.  Sanchez probably won’t throw it 50+ times as he did last week, but 40+ is a definite possibility.

 Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 17: Tennessee Titans)

This little factoid has been mentioned in this space several times this year, but it’s worth noting again that Tate has double digit fantasy points in each of the games where he has received twelve or more carries.  With Houston locked into the three seed, you can expect Arian Foster to be on the bench for most if not all of this one, which should allow Tate to get well over twelve carries and at least ten fantasy points.

 Darren Sproles (New Orleans Saints, Week 17: Carolina Panthers)

Sproles is solid as Sears.  He has nine games with double digit fantasy points and only one game with less than five fantasy points.  With a matchup against the second worst run defense in football, it is unclear why ESPN’s Karabell and Harris have him outside their top 20 and why the Expert Consensus Ranking on him on FantasyPros.com is only #20.

Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 17: Washington Redskins)

Maclin’s reception and yardage totals have increased each of the last two weeks, so it looks like he’s working his way back into the offense nicely.  With no real reason for Philly to sit starters, Maclin should be a nice play this week.

 Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 17: @ St. Louis Rams)

With Braylon Edwards released and Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn unlikely to play, Crabtree and Brett Swain are the only San Francisco receivers healthy for a game they need to win.  As will be discussed below, Vernon Davis may struggle to be productive in this matchup, so Crabtree is easily the best option for Alex Smith this week.  Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter should see a lot of work, but what San Fran gets through the air figures to go through Crabtree.

 Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 17: @ Green Bay Packers)

Green Bay sucks against tight ends to begin with, and if they rest any defensive starters (likely), it makes sense that they would suck even more against tight ends.

 Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans, Week 17: @ Houston Texans)

Cook has 17 catches for 272 yards the last two weeks, and he’s available in 88% of leagues.

 Detroit Lions D/ST (Week 17: @ Green Bay Packers)

Speaking of Green Bay sitting starters, there is a huge difference between Rodgers/Nelson/Finley and Flynn/Jones/Crabtree.

Sit ‘Em 

Atlanta Falcons (Week 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Assuming Detroit beats Green Bay during the 1:00 games, Atlanta would be locked into the #6 seed before their 4:15 game.  Even though coach Mike Smith has suggested he’ll play his starters no matter what, there’s no way you could trust Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Turner/Gonzalez to play much if at all.

 Cedric Benson (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 17: Baltimore Ravens)

Benson did score two touchdowns against Baltimore in week 11, but he only managed 41 yards in 15 carries in that game.  Benson has only managed 80+ yards in four games this year, but if he can get 84 on Sunday, Cincinnati would owe him an additional $250,000 for reaching 1,100 yards.  As a result, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bernard Scott saw an extra series or two.

 Shonn Greene (New York Jets, Week 17: @ Miami Dolphins) See: Mark Sanchez 
Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers, Week 17: @ Oakland)

Don’t be fooled by Jackson’s participation in practice late this week.  San Diego has been eliminated from the playoffs, and it’s just too risky to put Jackson in your lineup when he could be held out of the game or pulled from it at the slightest sign of trouble.

 Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 17: @ St. Louis Rams)

The Rams have allowed the fewest yards, touchdowns, receptions, and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  They held Davis to 3 catches for 32 yards in week 13.  There’s no way you can trust Davis in a fantasy final.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who will see you as soon as baseball mock draft lobbies get going.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 12, 2011 - Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America)
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Rex Grossman (credits below)
Start ‘Em

Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 16: Minnesota Vikings)

If it’s a good matchup, Grossman has shown he can take advantage of it.  And Minnesota is about as good as matchups get for quarterbacks.  The Vikings have allowed at least two touchdown passes in all but one week since week five and 25 total touchdown passes over that nine game span.

LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 16: @ Carolina Panthers)

The key to Blount having a good fantasy day is simply having his team stay in the game.  Blount’s four worst games of the season have been those where Tampa lost by two touchdowns or more with Blount getting about ten carries.  Any time his carry totals have gotten deeper into the double digits, he’s been just fine. 

Although Carolina blew Tampa out the last time they played, Carolina’s defense is bad enough that the Bucs should be able to put up points with Josh Freeman at QB as opposed to Josh Johnson.  And if Raheem Morris is smart (debatable), he’ll try to slow the game down and keep Cam Newton off the field by handing the ball off to Blount frequently.  If Blount does get the requisite touches, he’ll have a good day, especially against a terrible Carolina run D.

Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles)

The Eagles absolutely stifle opposing receivers that line up out wide on the left side of the formation.  Fortunately, for Robinson, Dez Bryant is the Cowboys wideout who works primarily from that side of the field.  Robinson worked out of two-wide sets (and even a one-wide set at least once), so he should see enough snaps from a favorable spot (whether it be in the slot or wide right) to have a good fantasy day.

Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 16: New York Giants)

As mentioned in this space before, when selecting a tight end outside of the top six or seven guys you’re essentially just throwing darts at the proverbial touchdown dart board.  Keller is sixth among tight ends in red zone targets and the Giants are tied for the third most touchdowns allowed to tight ends.  Hopefully one plus one actually equals two in that logic equation this week.

Washington Redskins D/ST (Week 16: Minnesota Vikings)

Over their last six games, the Vikings have allowed an average of just over 13 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.  That’s a lot.  Washington has an underrated defense due to a tough schedule and some bad luck in that they’ve forced the sixth most fumbles and have recovered the eighth fewest.

Sit ‘Em

Eli Manning (New York Giants, Week 16: @ New York Jets)

Combine last week’s monstrosity and this week’s tough matchup, and how could you have the confidence to start Manning in the finals of your league?  All the other top ten type QBs have at least decent matchups, and a few of the lesser guys have great matchups (like Grossman and Mark Sanchez), so there’s no reason to start Eli this week.

Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams, Week 16: @ Pittsburgh Steelers)

Somehow Jackson has managed 32 fantasy points in the last two weeks against above average run defenses (Seattle, Cincinnati).  But with no threat of a passing game, it’s hard to bet on Jackson continuing to defy the odds, especially against a Steelers run D that’s better than Seattle and Cincy’s.

Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants, Week 16: @ New York Jets)

If Eli is in your “Sit ‘Em” section and one of his receivers is likely to be covered by Darrelle Revis most of the time, then that receiver also has to be in the “Sit ‘Em” section.

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles)

As mentioned above, the Eagles almost completely shut down receivers who line up on the left side.  Bryant lines up on the left around 60% of the time.  This is another case where one plus one should equal two.

Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 16: San Diego Chargers)

The Chargers have the third lowest total of yards allowed to tight ends, and opposing tight ends have been targeted less against the Chargers than any other team.  While they have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends (tied for third most), touchdowns can be affected by circumstance and aren’t the best measure of a team’s ability to stop a certain position.  That’s a really long way of saying that the Chargers are pretty good against tight ends, so Pettigrew may not be a great play this week as a result.

Chicago Bears D/ST (Week 16: @ Green Bay Packers)

All of ESPN’s big four rankers have Chicago’s defense ranked 11th or higher, and Karabell has them as high as sixth.  This seems insane to me as no defense facing the Packers has scored more than five fantasy points.  Green Bay still has to win a game to lock up home field throughout the playoffs, so their starters are playing this entire game.  You’d be crazy to start any defense against them.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas wishing you a merry Christmas, ya filthy animal.  You can wish him a Happy New Year and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(December 17, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)
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Dez Bryant (credits below)
Start ‘Em

Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 15: New York Jets)

The matchup is not as scary as it looks.

In six games against Romo, Tebow, Brady, and Fitzpatrick, the Jets have given up an average of 17.5 fantasy points to QBs.  Their success in the “QB fantasy points against” category has been bolstered by the complete throttling of lesser competition.  But the only top ten QB they’ve really handled has been...

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 15: Baltimore Ravens)

If you haven’t noticed, his struggles appear to be over.  He’s averaging almost 18 fantasy points per game over his last six, and he hasn’t thrown a pick since week 11 (inevitable positive regression).  And his matchup is not as scary as it looks either.  Sure, the Ravens have given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs, but they’ve only faced one QB in the top ten of passing yards (Roethlisberger).  They’re good, but they’re probably not the best.

Ryan Grant (Green Bay Packers, Week 15: @ Kansas City Chiefs)

Admittedly, I no longer thought Grant was capable of being a relevant fantasy football player.  But his 85 yards and two touchdowns against the pathetic Oakland defense proved he can still take advantage of a good matchup.  He gets another good matchup to exploit this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fifth most points to opposing RBs and who has been especially porous in the last five weeks allowing 781 rushing yards and five rushing TDs.

Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 15: Carolina Panthers)

In the six games where Tate has received at least 12 carries, he has averaged 12.5 fantasy points and never had fewer than eight.  While he hasn’t had 12+ carries in any of Houston’s last three games, he should see at least that many against Carolina, one of the two decidedly worst run defenses in the league, and should get double digit fantasy points as a result.

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 15: Green Bay Packers)

Kyle Orton lost his job in Denver because of the Mile High Messiah, but now Orton is the savior for Dwayne Bowe owners.  Ever since Tyler Palko took over for the injured Matt Cassel, you couldn’t risk having Bowe in your lineup.  With Orton under center, Bowe may finally be useable again.  Especially against a Green Bay secondary that hemorrhages fantasy points to wide receivers.

Santana Moss (Washington Redskins, Week 15: New York Giants)

Moss saw 11 targets and recorded 14 fantasy points last week against the defense that allows the most fantasy points to receivers.  This week he faces the defense that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.  He’s an absolute must start.

Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 15: Dallas Cowboys)

Williams had a run of consecutive solid performances halted at three games last week by a Jacksonville team that has only allowed more than one pass TD in a game once since week 5 and who has allowed less than 200 yards through the air in 9 of 13 games.  This week Williams will face a Cowboys secondary that is not nearly as good as Jacksonville’s. 

Terence Newman looks so little like his former self that my dad has taken to calling him Clarence.  My dad is doing that mainly because he’s old (not unlike Terence/Clarence), but his old and tired mind may just be subconsciously pointing out Newman’s rapidly declining skills.

Jake Ballard (New York Giants, Week 15: Washington Redskins)

Outside of the top four guys, you’re probably not getting enough yardage out of your tight end to make him an automatic start.  It’s all about who can find their way into the end zone at that position.  Ballard has been targeted in the end zone twelve times this season (four TDs) and faces the Redskins who are second worst against the tight end.  That combination of factors gives Ballard a better shot of scoring this week than most other tight ends.

Seahawks D/ST (Week 15: @Chicago Bears)

In the three games started by Caleb Hanie, the Bears have given up an average of 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.  On the year, only one team (the Rams) has allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses on average.  The Seahawks D also happens to be 9th among defenses in fantasy points scored this year.  So I have absolutely no idea why all of ESPN’s big four rankers have Seattle’s D ranked outside their top ten.

Sit ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 15: @ San Francisco 49ers)

With Ben’s status up in the air because of his ankle injury, there is just no way you can risk waiting until Monday night to see if he is a go.  That is of course unless you’re comfortable starting Alex Smith against the Steelers D or Charlie Batch as your QB in the fantasy playoffs.

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers, Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers)
Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 15: @ San Francisco 49ers)

The matchups are obviously bad for these two RBs whose teams are facing each other this week, but let’s also point that Mendenhall has not been very good this year and Gore has not been very good lately.  Mendenhall has just one game with more than 70 yards rushing, and Gore is averaging less than eight fantasy points per game over his last four games.

Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, Week 15: Seattle Seahawks)

Seattle gives up and average amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs, but they mainly struggle with backs who can do damage in the passing game.  Barber with his five catches this season is not that type of back.  Moreover, it’s entirely possible that Khalil Bell sees a little more work this week after Barber’s two big blunders essentially cost Chicago a win last week.

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 15: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

There are multiple reasons to be wary of Dez this week.  First of all, he’s just inconsistent.  He has had 14 targets and one target in the last two weeks.  With Dez, Miles Austin, and Laurent Robinson all on the field at the same time, there may not be enough to go around each week.  And Robinson and Austin are the guys who get a steady amount of looks each week, while Dez is more of the home run threat.

Second, Tampa Bay’s run D is uglier than Arnold Schwarzenegger’s mistress.  A lot of the Cowboy’s offensive production figures to come from Felix Jones.  There’s just too much risk of getting nothing from Dez for me to feel comfortable enough playing him in the fantasy playoffs.

Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis Rams, Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals)

What the hell happened to Sam Bradford?  Yeah, he’s playing hurt and his offensive line isn’t necessarily healthy either, but he has been downright atrocious this year.  This is less of a knock on Lloyd and more a statement that he’s just too risky of a start with Bradford’s current level of play.

Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots, Week 15: @ Denver Broncos)

Hernandez is a quality tight end, but it’s hard to project him getting into the end zone with Gronkowski hogging all the touchdowns.  Not to mention Denver being pretty stingy against the tight end as they’ve allowed the second fewest amount of yards to tight ends.

Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers)

As you might imagine, Pittsburgh is pretty good at stopping tight ends, so this matchup is not ideal.  But more importantly, Davis just hasn’t been very good this year.  He’s 13th in fantasy points among tight ends, and he has three fantasy points in three straight games.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who wants to be Rob Gronkowski when he grows up. You can see his lack of Gronkowski-like photos with porn stars and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(December 10, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)
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Michael Crabtree
QB Start: Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 14: New England)

This is purely a matchup call.  New England has given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko.  That includes Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Mark Sanchez (twice), Vince Young, and the great Dan Orlovsky.  

QB Sit: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 14: Chicago Bears)

Although squarely in the pro-Tebow camp for reasons unknown to even myself, I can’t help but shying away from playing Tebow this week.  First of all, his interception rate is basically half of one percent.  League average is just under three percent, and there’s just no way he can avoid throwing picks forever.  Also, this game figures to be a tight, low scoring affair.  Lots of it should be played in between the 20’s with lots of handoffs keeping the clock rolling.  The number of plays each team runs will likely be well below their season average.

Forgive me Father; I know not what I do.

RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 14: @ Tennessee)

Pierre Thomas is pretty good at football.  You wouldn’t know it from the usage pattern of Sean Payton’s backfield, but he is.  He averages just under five yards per carry for his career, and he’s averaging right at five yards per carry in 82 attempts this year.  With Mark Ingram out, Thomas should pick up a few more carries.  Although Chris Ivory might get 15 carries like he did in week 9 when Ingram was out.  But, like I said, Thomas is a good football player who also has a chance to prove it this week.

RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 14: @Jacksonville)

How can you start Blount this week after he mustered just 19 yards on 11 carries last week in the choicest of choice matchups against Carolina?  He’ll face the Jags on Sunday whose run D has had great games (held Houston to under 100 yards rushing) and awful games (gave up 115 yards to Chris Ogbonnaya).  There’s just too much risk associated with Blount to be using him in the fantasy playoffs.

BONUS FLEX PLAY: Brandon Saine (Green Bay Packers, Week 14: Oakland)

With James Starks out, there’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to take advantage of a nice matchup against the Raiders.  Ryan Grant has done nothing to show he’s any good, so why not Brandon Saine getting a little play this week?  Per ProFootballFocus.com, he got 11 looks on just 21 snaps last week, and he’s been targeted seven times in the last two games.  Saine is probably more interesting as a flex in a PPR league, but if you’re desperate, there’s upside here.

WR Start: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 14: @ Arizona)

Prior to last week, Crabtree and Antonio Brown were the only receivers with over 500 yards, 70 targets, and 40 receptions and just one touchdown.  Both had big weeks and Crabtree cashed in on some of that inevitable positive regression with a touchdown while adding another 96 yards.  Now, Crabtree, Brown, and Reggie Wayne are the only three receivers with 600+ yards, 45+ receptions and 75+ targets that don’t have at least three touchdowns.  So there’s more positive regression in store for Crabtree, and he faces the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

WR Sit: Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys, Week 14: New York Giants)

Like Blount, there’s simply too much risk associated with starting Austin in the fantasy playoffs.  Who knows how healthy he really is and if he’ll be able to play a full complement of snaps.  And with Laurent Robinson having filled in more-than-adequately, who knows how targets will be distributed with Austin, Robinson, and Dez Bryant all in the lineup.  If you’re in a two week playoff matchup or looking for an upside play, Austin might not be a bad play, but, for me, there’s just too much risk in playing him.

TE Start: Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 14: Kansas City)

From my favorite fantasy football Twitter account to follow, @PFF_MikeClay: Tight Ends are enjoying a 14.1 YPR and 17% TD rate against the Chiefs this year. Most generous to TEs in both categories.

That’s a good enough reason to start a borderline top ten TE if you ask me.

TE Sit: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 14: Houston Texans)

Gresham will probably get his usual four or five catches, but, against a Texans team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not likely to result in a lot of yardage or a touchdown.

BONUS D/ST PLAY: Arizona Cardinals D/ST (Week 14: San Francisco 49ers)

Arizona’s D has been playing well lately as they’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points in their last six games.  They face a San Francisco team whose strength isn’t exactly offense and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, is due for some serious regression in the interception department (1.5% INT%).  They’re available in over 95% of leagues.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned.  It has been almost a year since I last exhibited disbelief in Tim Tebow.”  You can recommend he do five Hail Marys and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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Marion Barber (credits below)
If you’re reading this, it’s safe to assume you made your fantasy football playoffs.  Congratulations.  Since you’re in the playoffs, you probably have a pretty solid team.  But if you’ve been spot starting QBs and TEs all year, or if you’re looking for a flex play or a sneaky defense, here are the best waiver wire options.

The Free Market

Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, 8.5% owned)
Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, 7.9% owned)
Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, 5.5% owned)

Both Moore and Ponder have been entirely adequate over their last six games.  Each guy has recorded double digit fantasy points in five of those six games, and Moore is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game while Ponder is averaging 12.3.  Unfortunately, neither draws a particularly favorable matchup this week as Miami faces Philadelphia and Minnesota travels to Detroit.

But Grossman has the enviable New England matchup.  Since reclaiming the starting job from John Beck four games ago, Grossman has two games of four fantasy points, and he averaged twenty fantasy points between the other two.  So hit or miss seems to be an accurate description of what you can expect to get from Grossman.  With this matchup, “hit” is more likely than “miss.”  New England is going to throw four touchdowns to Gronkowski, so you know Washington will being playing catch up against a secondary that allowed Dan Orlovsky to score 20 fantasy points last week.

Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, 17.3% owned)

Barber is pretty obviously the #1 pickup this week with Matt Forte injured.  And although you probably shouldn’t expect too much out of Barber, he’s a no-brainer pickup if you’re looking for a flex play this week.  Since the majority of your league mates are out of the running now, a #7 waiver claim or later might be enough to get you Barber.

Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 10.2% owned)
Brad Smith (Buffalo Bills, 0.2% owned)
Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks, 0.2% owned)

First of all, Williams is clearly the best widely available receiver for your flex spot this week.  He’s been good over his last six games, averaging almost eight fantasy points per game, and he has a great matchup against the Saints this week.  If you need a receiver/flex option and Williams is available, he’s your man.

But if he’s already owned, Smith and Tate might be nice plays this week.  Smith has 70+ yards in each of the last two weeks, and he led the Bills with ten targets last week.  Buffalo faces an average pass defense in San Diego this week.  Tate has been in on more of Seattle’s snaps recently, and he has a touchdown in each of the last two games.  If you need to play Tate, you’re either desperate or in a deep league, but he could cash in again versus St. Louis this week.

Demaryius Thomas (1.8% owned) and Andre Roberts (1.3% owned) had big games last week, but Thomas has a tough matchup against the Bears, and you’ll have to forgive me for not buying in on Andre Roberts.  If you’re reaching this far down, Smith and Tate are more worth your flier attention.

Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins, 2.2% owned)
Tony Scheffler (Detroit Lions, 2.1% owned)

Assuming the Ballards, Chandlers, Greshams and Celeks of the world are all owned in your league (all owned between 20-30%), then there’s not much left in the way of waiver wire tight end plays.  But unless you own one of the four or five studs at the position, you’re basically just hoping to hit a touchdown in your TE slot each week.  Fasano and Scheffler both play teams that are middle-of-the-pack against TEs, so maybe one of them gets in the end zone and gets you eight or nine fantasy points.  Fasano is probably the preferred choice since he’s the only TE Miami has and Scheffler has to compete with Brandon Pettigrew.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST (16% owned)
Denver Broncos D/ST (11.5% owned)
Arizona Cardinals D/ST (4.5% owned)

Seattle is a great pickup this week for your D/ST spot.  On the year, they’re 11th among defenses in fantasy points.  They’re also coming off a 17 point week 13 performance.  In week 11 they also scored 17 fantasy points when they faced the St. Louis Rams.  As scheduling would have it, Seattle faces that same Rams team this week, the Rams team who allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Since week 9, Denver has averaged just over 10 fantasy points per game.  This week they face the Caleb-Hanie led Bears and could very well come up with another ten fantasy points.  And in the event Denver and Seattle are both owned (highly unlikely), you could feel comfortable rolling with Arizona’s defensive unit.  They’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points per game over their last six, and this week they face a San Francisco team who is really good but whose strength isn’t necessarily its offense.

 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes comprehension of income tax material was as easy as identifying good defensive spot starts.  You can tell him to quit bitching and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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Matt Moore (credits below)
QB Start: Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, Week 13: Oakland)

ESPN’s current player blurb on Moore claims that the Raiders are underrated against the pass.  Really?  How?  Oakland allows the fifth most fantasy points to opposing QBs, has given up the 11th most passing yards, and has allowed the 4th highest total of passing touchdowns.  And they’ve done it against inferior competition.  They’ve only faced two QBs who rank among the top ten in fantasy points at that position, and they haven’t seen one of those quarterbacks since Week 5.

Then there’s this from one of my favorite people on Twitter, @PFF_MikeClay: Raiders Defense has allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in 9 of their last 10 games (only exception: 0 vs. KC Wk7). Hey, Matt Moore!

The list of quarterbacks that have thrown for 2+ TDs against the Raiders includes such names as: Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, and Caleb Hanie.  I see absolutely see no reason why Matt Moore can’t be on that list by Sunday night.

QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 13: @ Houston)

Houston may be suffering in its ability to get production from its quarterback position, but they’re having no problem suppressing the production of opposing quarterbacks.  Admittedly, they haven’t faced the strongest opposition, but they’ve handled weak quarterbacks as they should.  They’ve allowed double digit fantasy points to quarterbacks just four times and 15+ points just once.

Ryan is in the 8-12 range almost every week in the QB rankings and when he faces a strong opponent like this, he shouldn’t be above the start line.

RB Start: Carolina RBs (Week 13: @ Tampa Bay)

The only team worse against the run than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the team that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams play for.  So this is as good as a matchup can get for the Carolina duo.  God only knows which one of them will have the better day, but one or both of them should have a big day.  If you just own one of the two, start him and hope it’s his day.  If you own both of them, who knows?  You could start them both if you’re weak at flex, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with Stewart.

RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati)

The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati in week 10 Mendenhall was listed in this very same space.  The strength of Cincy’s run D and the fact that Mendenhall has only one game with more than 70 yards rushing (still true) were cited as reasons to leave him on your bench.  Mendy racked up a whopping 44 yards on 16 carries (2.75 ypc).  Unfortunately, he got in the end zone....twice.  Both scores came from inside the 10, so the circumstances of the game resulted in that sit call being wrong.  But it’s about process, not results, and the thinking is the same this time around.  Mendenhall has sucked, Cincy’s run D hasn’t, so he shouldn’t be a top 20 RB this week.

WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati)

Brown is going to be listed in this spot every week until either he’s recognized as the top 20 receiver that he is or he stops playing like a top 20 receiver.  He has at least eight points in his last five games (Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz are the only other receivers who can make that claim).  And he’s doing it almost exclusively with yardage as he has only one TD catch.

Brown is the only receiver with 700+ receiving yards and less than three touchdowns. He and Greg Little are the only receivers with 45+ receptions and 85+ plus targets with only 1 TD.  Those numbers absolutely scream regression.  REGRESSION!  Brown is absolutely going to catch some TDs down the stretch, and after you combine that with the 90 yards he’s averaging over his last five games, he’s going to have some very big days.

BONUS FLEX PLAY: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis)

Speaking of regression alerts, Crabtree is only slightly less of a positive regression candidate than Brown is.  Crab has over 500 yards, 74 targets, and 44 receptions, but only one touchdown.  He has 13 catches the last two weeks and faces a Rams team that allows the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

WR Sit: Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills, Week 13: Tennessee)

Before his antics and performance garnered him some attention last week, Stevie had been nowhere to be found since week 3, the last time he reached double digit fantasy points prior to his 13 against the Jets.  As he goes up against a Titans team that is 6th best against WRs and has a pretty decent shutdown corner in Cortland Finnegan, expect him to slip back into the obscurity of mediocrity.

TE Start: Jake Ballard (New York Giants, Week 13: Green Bay)
TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis)

Unless you own Graham, Gronkowski, Gates, Witten, or Gonzalez, you’re just trying to guess which tight end will get in the end zone that particular week.  Green Bay is really bad against tight ends, so Ballard has a shot to get you double digit points from your TE slot if he can get in the end zone.  If he doesn’t, he should be safe for five points or so.

As for Davis, more from @PFF_MikeClay: Vernon Davis owners -- No unit of tight ends has eclipsed 52 receiving yards in a single game vs. the Rams this season. They've allowed 1TD.

Enough said.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who took a two-hour break from studying to write this.  He apologizes if the words ‘statute’ or ‘doctrine’ were inadvertently typed into this article.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 19, 2011 - Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images North America)

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Victor Cruz (credits below)
Three things that made me go “WTF?” while looking over stats Monday night.

1. Mark Sanchez has been a top ten fantasy quarterback through 12 weeks.

WTF?  That’s right.  The 20th QB off the board in ESPN leagues this year has been outscored in fantasy points by only nine other quarterbacks.  When you look at all of the Sanchize’s numbers you notice that his completion percentage and quarterback rating have improved in each of the last two seasons, and his 2010/2011 interception rate has been a very acceptable and regression-proof 2.7%

Admittedly, a lot of his success is the result of a pretty easy schedule.  In the last seven weeks he has gone up against a team that currently ranks in the top ten of most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.  But assuming his accuracy continues to improve and his turnover woes don’t trend back in the direction of his rookie season, Sanchez could keep this up. 

Instead of being an afterthought again, next year Sanchez should be drafted in that 8th/9th round range where people who elect not to get an elite QB grab a couple of guys to rotate in and out of their lineup based on the matchup.  I can already imagine how much fun I’ll have choosing between Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez each week.

2. From Week 7 on Michael Bush is second among RBs in fantasy points per game.

WTF?  Since Darren McFadden went down we’ve watched Bush fill his shoes more than adequately.  But did you know only Arian Foster has been better than Bush in that time frame?

I considered the idea that Bush’s career path might play out a lot like Michael Turner’s when he leaves Oakland as free agent to be the starter elsewhere next season.  But Bush will be two years older and will have roughly 400 more carries (aka at least a full season’s load) under his belt than when Turner became the lead back in Atlanta.  Bush could certainly have some short-term success with his new team, but it’s probably not reasonable to expect him to become a top 30 pick for the next three to four years.

3. Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, and Laurent Robinson have been the league’s best WRs since week 8.

WTF?  On a per game basis, those three have scored more fantasy points than anyone other receivers.  What do they all have in common?  They are all on teams with a strong quarterback and a big, physical, deep threat WR1 lined up opposite them.  Moreover, they’ve all outscored their respective WR1’s for the season. 

Another guy who fits this description is Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown.  He’s been mentioned in this space extensively so I won’t go on too much about him, but he should be owned in every league.

Young guys like Vincent Brown, Brandon LaFell, and Titus Young are all worth watching as they play on teams with that combo of a strong quarterback and a deep threat WR1.  All three are on my 2012 sleeper radar.

By the way, Miles Austin is questionable at best this week, and Robinson is still available in over 40% of ESPN standard leagues.  If for some reason he’s still out there in your league and you’re playing for a playoff spot, he’s a must add and a must start.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who thinks the Miami D is a strong play for those looking for a D to help them get in the playoffs.  For a team that struggles against the pass and shuts down the run, Carson Palmer and Michael Bush is something they can handle.  You can tell him how dumb that call is and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 27, 2011 - Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images North America)
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Laurent Robinson (credits below)
QB Start: Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver) 
QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 12: Minnesota)

This is less of a statement that you should sit Ryan and more of a statement that it seems odd that most have Ryan ranked above Rivers this week when the matchup is equal (they face the two most fantasy-friendly-to QB defenses in the league this week).  Rivers is capable of being a top five QB, and Ryan is squarely in the tier just below the elite quarterbacks and the tier just above risky plays like Flacco, Schaub, and Eli.

The only reason Ryan is in the same sentence as Rivers this year is because Rivers has had bad luck with the turnovers.  Interception rate is hardly a constant for QBs and not as within their control as you might think.  Rivers’ 4.4% INT% is well above the average of 3% or so.  He’ll start regressing to the mean at some point.

There seem to be 11 start-worthy QBs this week (Rodgers, Newton, Stafford, Brees, Romo, Eli, Brady, Tebow, Roethlisberger), and Rivers/Ryan round out that list.  No issue with starting Ryan.  Just saying that if the choice came down to Rivers and Ryan, Rivers is still my guy.

RB Start: Wills McGahee (Denver Broncos, Week 12: @ San Diego)
RB Sit: Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver

Since Mathews racked up 125 yards against Denver’s run D in week 5, the Broncos haven’t allowed over 100 yards rushing to any group of running backs they have faced.  For the year, Denver’s run D has only given up one rushing touchdown to a running back.  So despite Mathews having some success last time out against them, the Broncos run D is pretty stout.  More importantly, since his 12 fantasy point day against Denver, Mathews has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in any game and averaged only five fantasy points per game in the four games in which he appeared.

Meanwhile, McGahee has accumulated a grand total of zero fantasy points in the last two weeks but was hampered by a hamstring injury in both games.  Having a full ten days to rest since his last game, McGahee is reportedly healthy and good-to-go.  He’ll go against the Chargers run D that gave up 125 yards on 16 carries to him in that week 5 matchup.  Fortunately for McGahee owners, the Chargers run D hasn’t had as much success as Denver’s run D has had when the two teams aren’t playing each other.

WR Start: Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, Week 12: Miami) 
WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 12: @Kansas City)

ESPN has both of these guys ranked outside the top 20 (albeit close at 21 and 22), and I’m not sure what I’m missing here.  Robinson has four straight weeks with no fewer than nine fantasy points and is facing a Miami team whose strength is stopping the run, not the pass.  As long as Miles Austin is out, Robinson is start-worthy receiver in all formats.

As for Brown, it’s like he finally got the recognition he deserved prior to his bye week and came out of it being undervalued again.  He’s averaging ten fantasy points per game over his last four and has clearly assumed the #2 receiver role in Pittsburgh.  A WR2 with talent that has a capable QB throwing him the ball deserves a start unless the matchup dictates otherwise.  Kansas City has been average against opposing WRs but not so good as to warrant sitting Brown.

WR Sit: Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers)

Boldin has been somewhat inconsistent this year with six games of single digit fantasy points and has struggled to post yardage at times as he has five games with less than 50 receiving yards.  Given that Torrey Smith has seen his usage increase (nine receptions the last two weeks compared to Boldin’s three), Bolding doesn’t seem to be headed in the right direction.  San Francisco may force Baltimore to throw quite a bit because the 49ers are so good against the run, but this should be a low scoring game and touchdowns may be hard to come by.  For that reason, stay away from Boldin this week

TE Start: Owen Daniels (Houston Texans, Week 12: Jacksonville)

You could make the argument that Matt Schaub being out will hurt Daniels, but you could just as easily make the argument that Matt Leinart is likely to be conservative and might frequently use his TE underneath.  Daniels has been on a bit of a cold spell, but a lot of that has been because he hasn’t found the end zone in awhile.  He’s still a talented tight end who is facing a Jaguars team that isn’t so good at stopping talented tight ends, so this seems like a decent time for him to rebound.

TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 12: @Baltimore Ravens)

Yardage has not been Davis’ strength this year.  He’s managed more than 50 yards in a game just twice.  His week-to-week success has depended on him getting in the end zone (admittedly, this could be said about almost all tight ends).  Unfortunately for Davis, the Ravens have yet to give up a TD to an opposing tight end.  Not sure that streak gets broken this week.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who hates pumpkin pie and whose mother doesn’t make good dressing.  Happy Thanksgiving indeed.  You can tell him to quit complaining about his #firstworldpains and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 12, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)
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Toby Gerhart (credits below)
If it was up to me, we wouldn’t play fantasy football with team defenses in our lineups. 

There is too much luck involved with the game as it is, and defenses only compound that problem.  It’s almost impossible to predict who the top defenses will be from year to year.  For example, the three defenses that separated themselves from the pack last year are 10th (Packers), 16th (Steelers), and 22nd (Patriots) in fantasy points so far this year. 

It just seems dumb to have everyone throwing a proverbial dart at the wall with their late round defense pick.

Despite all that, an overwhelming majority of leagues play with defenses.  As a result, you have to hope your 15th/16th round pick hits a bullseye or else you’re playing the waiver wire for the rest of the year. 

If you are stuck choosing defenses week to week and fighting for a playoff spot, here are a couple defenses available in most leagues that could be useful in the last two weeks of the fantasy regular season.

Washington Redskins D/ST (20.4% owned)

In the last two installments of this article, we examined the strength of schedule of opposing quarterbacks and running games that teams have faced.  In both cases, the Redskins were among the group found to have faced a significantly superior group of opponents.  Despite having faced a strong set of QBs and RBs, the Redskins are right in the middle of the pack at 17th among defenses in fantasy points.

Aside from a rough schedule, they’ve had some other bad luck.  The ‘Skins have forced 21 fumbles (2nd most in the league) but have recovered only six.  Coaches will often say their team has “a nose for the ball” or some crap like that, but which team ends up recovering a fumble is basically a 50-50 proposition.  Teams can’t consistently recover fumbles at a rate much higher or lower than 50%.  Needless to say, don’t expect the ‘Skins 28% recovery rate to keep up.  If they keep forcing the other team to put the ball on the ground, they’ll start picking them up.

Like a good Cab with a nice steak, a good defense needs to be paired with a nice matchup in order to have a perfect combination.  The Redskins happen to get a great matchup in each of the final two weeks of the regular season in the Seahawks and the Jets who allow the third and fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses, respectively.  With those matchups, Washington should be a top ten fantasy defense for the next two weeks.

Miami Dolphins D/ST (3.6% owned)

Like Washington, Miami has been severely unlucky when it comes to recovering forced fumbles.  Miami hasn’t forced quite as many (13), but their recovery rate is the lowest in the league at 15%.  They’re bound to recover some fumbles in the final six weeks.  And after coming up with only two interceptions in their first eight games, the Dolphins have four picks in the last two weeks. 

Those interceptions have helped Miami put together an excellent three weeks on defense.  They’ve allowed less than ten points in each of the last three weeks and have averaged about 13 fantasy points per game over that span.

The problem with Miami is that they’re not very good against the pass as they allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  However, they’re excellent against the run as they allow the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  Therefore, Miami is a matchup play. 

The Thanksgiving Day matchup against Dallas isn’t a favorable one, but the Oakland matchup in the final week of the fantasy regular season plays right into Miami’s strength.  They can handle Oakland’s formidable running game, and Carson Palmer is the type of QB Miami can deal with.

The Free Market

As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.

Greg Little (Cleveland Browns, 10.4% owned)
Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 9.5% owned)
Jabar Gaffney (Washington Redskins, 25.5% owned)

Although Torrey Smith (43.7% owned) and Jerome Simpson (33% owned) will be hot pickups this week, this trio of receivers is also worth a look. 

Little is the only receiver with at least 60 targets who has yet to catch a touchdown.  That simply can’t keep up, and Little will find the end zone soon if he keeps getting that many looks. 

Speaking of looks, Williams got eleven targets on Sunday but only caught one pass.  Williams’ catch rate for the year of 44% isn’t necessarily high, but we can expect him to bring in more than one ball the next time he gets double digit targets.

And finally, Gaffney is a much more useful fantasy receiver with Rex Grossman at QB for the Redskins.  Gaffney has put up yardage pretty consistently, so he won’t kill you in weeks where he doesn’t find the end zone

Kevin Smith (Detroit Lions, 0.7% owned)
Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts, 6.8% owned)

As you can tell from his ownership percentage, not a lot of people thought Kevin Smith was capable of going off for 38 FANTASY POINTS (!!!!) this week.  There is no doubt he will be the most added player this week, but you ought to be careful about how much FAAB money you spend on him.  Who knows if he can consistently produce, especially considering his epic game came against the Panthers who allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs by a healthy margin.

Speaking of those RB-friendly Panthers, Brown will face them this week.  Considering that the Panthers have been torn up by such mediocre backs as Smith, Beanie Wells, James Starks, and, I hate to say it, Chris Johnson, it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that a Colts back can put up some fantasy points against them.  I say Brown is that back, but I put in the call on Maurice Morris last week instead of Smith, so you can expect Delone Carter or worse, Joseph Addai, to kill it on Sunday.

Toby Gerhart (Minnesota Vikings, 1.7% owned)

Atlanta is a tough matchup for running backs, so Gerhart probably isn’t more than a flex play if Peterson is out this week.  And if Peterson misses a few weeks, Denver and Detroit aren’t easy to run on either.  Any guy getting a lot of work is worth a pickup, but temper expectations on Gerhart.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who asks you to help control the pet population by having your pets spayed and neutered and to control the team defense population by choosing not to use them if you are a league manager.  You can tell him don't want a piece of him... you want the whole thing and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 6, 2010 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)
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Ndamukong Suh (credits below)
The San Francisco 49ers run defense:

· Has not allowed a rushing touchdown;
· Gives up the fewest yards per game on the ground;
· Is one of two teams to have given up only one 20+ yard run; and
· Allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs by a healthy margin.

So the Niners have the best run defense in football, right? 

(channeling my inner Corso)

Not so fast, my friend!  Teams that San Fran has faced this year average 105.2 rushing yards per game.  That’s the lowest number in the league which means the “best” run defense has also faced the easiest schedule.  The teams that have given up the second (Baltimore) and third (Houston) fewest points to running backs have also faced a significantly inferior group of runners.

So, if the Niners aren’t the best run D in the league, which team is?

How about the Detroit Lions?  The Lions have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs despite having the fifth toughest schedule.  Despite having faced guys like Peterson, Forte, Gore, and Turner, the Lions have only allowed three touchdowns to running backs this season.  The Lions will see a lot of running back committees the rest of the way like Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego.  Those backs splitting time should be left on your bench when facing this strong Lions run defense.

It’s interesting to note that the Green Bay Packers have faced the toughest slate of opposing backs but have managed to give up the 12th fewest fantasy points to them.  This seems to back up the idea that backs will lose carries when playing Green Bay as their teams throw in excess while playing from behind.  As further proof, teams facing Green Bay only attempt about 22 runs per game when facing the Packers.  That’s the third lowest mark in the league.  Good backs on bad teams will struggle against Green Bay.  For example, LeGarrette Blount is a big time stay away this week when Green Bay travels to Tampa.

Teams whose runs defenses may not be as bad as they look are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City.  Those teams have allowed the fourth, fifth, and sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs but also have faced the fourth, fifth, and sixth toughest RB schedules.  On the other hand, teams with run defenses that are just as bad as they look include St. Louis, Carolina, and Indianapolis.  Carolina and Indy allow the most fantasy points to RBs and figure to continue to do so.  Maurice Morris could be a sneaky play against the Panthers this week.

The Free Market

As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, 31.5% owned)
Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 13% owned)

This pair of receivers will be hot pickups this week as Moore recorded 24 fantasy points and Robinson put up an almost equally excellent 19 in week 9.  The problem with both of these guys is that playing time is no guarantee.  If and when Miles Austin returns, Robinson’s role will decrease.  And God only knows what the Oakland WR depth chart will look like week to week. 

Robinson is probably the better add because he should retain some value when Austin comes back, but either of these next two receivers might be better adds.

Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.6% owned)
Earl Bennett (Chicago Bears, 10.1% owned)

As was pointed out in this space last week, Doucet has been on a little roll of completely respectable “averageness.”  He extended his streak of games with between seven and nine fantasy points to five weeks with eight points against the Eagles this week.  Said it before and will say it again, Doucet could be a top 30 WR the rest of the way.  John Skelton and all. 

Meanwhile, Bennett has amassed 23 fantasy points in the two weeks since he returned from injury and has been the Bears leading receiver in yardage and receptions both weeks.

Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders, 25.8% owned)
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals, 24.6% owned)

Are you a Matt Schaub owner?  If so, one of these two gingery quarterbacks is likely your best bet.  Which one to pick up largely depends on what you need.  If you need a QB to help you get into the playoffs, Palmer is your guy as he faces Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami in the final weeks of fantasy football’s regular season.  All three of these teams rank among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.  If you’ve got a playoff spot pretty well in hand, Dalton is your man.  He gets St. Louis and Arizona, both of whom also rank among the top ten in most points allowed to quarter backs, in weeks 15 and 16.

Maurice Morris (Detroit Lions, 12.4% owned)
Donald Brown (Indianapolis colts, 11% owned)

Morris was mentioned above as a sneaky play against the terrible Carolina run defense this week.  He’s still widely available, so add him if you’re looking for help with guys like Foster, Sproles, and Mendenhall on bye.

Also on bye this week is Brown.  However, when Indy returns from the bye, they’ll face that same terrible Carolina run defense.  Because he’s on bye, Brown’s ownership percentage may not jump too much this week.  Go ahead and grab him now while he’s off everyone’s radar.

Kendall Hunter (San Francisco 49ers, 5.4% owned)

Keep an eye on Gore’s injury situation as Hunter is one of the more potentially explosive handcuffs in the league.  If Gore can’t go, Hunter would be a nice play.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad Lee Corso is the only former college football coach he channels.  You can tell him it’s too soon and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(October 22, 2011 - Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)
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