 Ben Tate (credits below) RB Start: Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay)
In the five games where Tate has 12 or more carries, he has averaged 12.6 fantasy points and hasn’t had fewer than eight points in any of those games. Against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and who is without DT Gerald McCoy, the Texans figure to run the ball a lot. Tate should get at least 12 carries and should record double digit fantasy points.
RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati)
Cincinnati appears to have an excellent pass defense. But, as I pointed out in my MarketWatch article this week, it only appears that way because they have yet to face a quarterback who ranks top 12 in passing yards. This week they face Big Ben Roethlisberger who is 3rd in passing yards this season. This is the week the Bengals pass D is exposed for the middle-of-the-pack unit that it really is.
On the other hand, the Bengals run D has allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards despite facing backs like Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and a healthy Peyton Hillis. This is the true strength of the Bengals defense.
Mendenhall has single digit fantasy points in five games this season and has topped 70 rushing yards in only one game. Pittsburgh is a throw-first team at this point, and that pass-happy approach figures to be more successful against this particular defense.
WR Start: Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, Week 10: @ San Diego)
Just kidding.
WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati)
We’ve already covered the fact that Cincy’s pass defense is overrated. Brown is 7th in the league in targets, the most targeted receiver on his team, and he has three straight weeks of double digit fantasy points. So why wouldn’t he be an automatic start against an overrated pass defense?
WR Sit: Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 10: Minnesota)
Nelson has five touchdowns but only 29 receptions. That’s basically one TD catch every six receptions. It’s certainly possible that he keeps that rate up, but such low usage plus a lot of scores just screams regression. This is a great matchup for Green Bay’s epic pass machine, so maybe this isn’t the week regression kicks in for Jordy. But, to be honest, I don’t know who else to tell you to sit at this position.
QB Start: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 10: @ Kansas City)
A few points here, a few points there, and before you know it Tebow has 20+ fantasy points on the day. He averages just over that 20 point number in the 3.5 halves where he has been the starter. Unless the matchup is just brutal, Tebow is a must start. Kansas City is only 17th best against the QB, and they’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing QBs. They’re not nearly good enough to warrant leaving Tebow on the bench.
QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay)
Schaub is a “QB Sit” regular at this point.
He’s currently 9th among QBs in fantasy points, but he’s the only one of the top ten to have three games with single digit fantasy points. The suckitude of Tampa’s run defense has already been discussed, so we can expect Houston to run, run, and run some more. The Texans will likely lead most of this game, so they can run even more still. Andre Johnson is still out as well, and how can you feel good about starting a QB whose best receiver is Kevin Walter?
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 10: @ Chicago)
(insert TE facing Chicago here)
From ESPN’s blurb on Pettigrew this week: (The Bears) have allowed the most targets (80), catches (54), touchdowns (6) and ESPN standard fantasy points (86) to (tight ends).
TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 10: New York Giants)
Vernon Davis has fewer targets than Fred Davis has catches. 33 tight ends have more red zone targets than Vernon. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t seem to be a big part of San Fran’s offense. The Giants have allowed five or fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends six times. Admittedly, they’ve faced some pretty weak tight ends, but at this point Vernon Davis isn’t a strong TE option. Expect the Giants to continue shutting down tight ends they should shut down.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes there was a real life equivalent of “Suck for Luck.” You can tell him that sounded gay and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(October 22, 2011 - Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images North America)
 Roy Helu (credits below) Once upon a time a fantasy player could gain an edge with just a little extra research. But with the proliferation of the internet and fantasy sites galore, everyone has the same access to all the information. And there’s a lot of it. As an obligatory reference to the running title of this article, the stock market experiences the same phenomena as every piece of information is available to every person, and it’s all figured in to the price of a stock.
There really is no such thing as a sleeper anymore, and nothing is a secret. Well, almost nothing. In the blogosphere era, you can still gain an edge with a little extra research, but you have to dig deeper.
Everyone in your league can click on the ‘points against’ tab on the ESPN fantasy page and find out which teams give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. But what you won’t find is some sort of strength of schedule number telling you the quality of opposing position players that a team has faced. It may seem like certain teams shut down opposing QBs while others give up fantasy points in bunches. But things are not always as they seem. For example...
Three of the five teams that have allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs are among the group of six teams that has faced a significantly inferior group of opposing quarterbacks (and I’ll leave out the description of how they were determined so I don’t have to use the words "standard deviation" in an article).
The Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Houston Texans have allowed the 3rd, 4th, and 5th fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs, respectively. However, they have also had the 3th, 4th, and 5th easiest schedules of opposing quarterbacks.
Check out the murderer’s row Cincinnati has faced: McCoy, Orton, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Gabbert, Painter, Tavaris, and Hasselbeck. Not one of those guys ranks among the top 12 in passing yards this year.
Cleveland’s lineup is just as bad. Aside from facing Matt Schaub this week and Matt Hasselbeck in week 4, the Browns haven’t faced a quarterback who ranks among the top 20 in passing yards in any of their other six games.
This information doesn’t mean these pass defenses are bad. Cleveland held Schaub to eight points this week, Cincinnati held Fitzpatrick to seven points in week 4, and Houston held Roethlisberger to seven points in week 4 as well. But the only time one of these teams faced a top six fantasy scoring QB, Drew Brees lit up Houston for 26 points.
What this information does mean is that these three passing defenses are no reason to bench an otherwise start-worthy QB.
On the flip side, six teams have faced a significantly superior group of quarterbacks. For the Miami Dolphins, this means that things aren’t as bad as they seem. And they seem pretty bad considering the Fins allow the second most fantasy points on average to opposing QBs.
It also means that the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, and Atlanta Falcons are probably in the middle of the pack against QBs as opposed to among the bottom third against them.
But the most important discovery to come out of this little experiment is how good the Jacksonville Jaguars are against QBs. Jacksonville is currently 11th best against the QB despite having the third toughest slate of opposing QBs. Those QBs are:
Hasselbeck, Sanchez, Newton, Brees, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Schaub.
Every single one of those QBs averages at least 12 fantasy points per game. Brees and Newton are 1-2 in passing yards. Newton leads all QBs in total yardage.
Imagine what they’ll do in their final 8 games. Borderline start-worthy quarterbacks like Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck, and Matt Ryan all face Jacksonville down the stretch. All three should probably be left on your bench in those weeks. Even top ten guys like Rivers and Schaub may have to be on your bench when they face the Jags.
To recap: Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Houston are nothing to be scared of. Miami isn’t quite the choice matchup it seems to be. And you should let Conrad Murray administer anesthesia to you before you start a middling quarterback against the Jaguars.
Next week, we’ll take a look at how teams really fare against opposing running backs.
The Free Market
Quickly, a few guys owned in less than 40% of ESPN leagues who need to be added.
Roy Helu (Washington Redskins, 16% owned) Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 2.2% owned)
Helu touched the ball 24 times on Sunday, 22 more times than any other Washington back. Robinson managed to have some success as Dallas’ WR3 but will now serve as their WR2 until Miles Austin returns from injury. They’ll be the hot new pickups this week. Just remember Helu still has crazy Mike Shanahan as his coach, and Robinson’s value is tied to Austin staying off the field.
Though this pair will likely be the most added RB/WR players this week, the most added player should be...
ANTONIO BROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Pittsburgh Steelers, only 31.1% owned!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Seriously, what are people waiting for? He leads Pittsburgh receivers in targets (by 10), and he’s 7th in the league in targets. He also leads the team in redzone targets and has double digit fantasy points in three straight games. He faces the previously discussed not-so-great-after-all pass defense of Cleveland and Cincinnati a total of four times over his last seven games. What are you waiting for? Grab him NOW!
Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 33.8% owned)
If someone in your league bailed on Hardesty and you’re thin at RB, he’s probably worth adding. For whatever reason, whether it is injury, Madden Curse or personal differences between Peyton Hillis and the Browns, it’s no guarantee that we see much of Hillis on the field for the remainder of the season. Chris Ogbonnaya clearly sucks (13 for 28 with a lost fumble last week), so Hardesty is probably going to be the guy when he gets healthy.
Steve Breaston (Kansas City Chiefs, 39.1% owned)Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.8% owned)
Breaston is averaging 8.6 fantasy points over his last six games while Breaston is averaging 8.2 over his last four. If they can keep that kind of production up, they’ll be top 20 receivers the rest of the way. It’s not likely they’ll continue to produce at quite that level, but it’s certainly within reason that these two are top 30 receivers from here on out.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who really misses using double entendres like he did in his weekly baseball article, The Rubber. So how about this for a fantasy football name? Schaub on my Kolb. You can tell him someone else already came up with that and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(October 1, 2011 - Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)
 Phillip Rivers (credits below) Normally my articles start off with some sort of introduction that includes a haphazard analogy or anecdote in an attempt to link fantasy sports with a line of thinking from the real world. But I spent a lot of time this week researching trade targets based on the strength of fantasy playoff schedules and either positive or negative regression that can be expected in the touchdown category. As a result, I’ve compiled a fair amount of information, so let’s get straight to the names and numbers.
All discussions of playoff schedules assume a Week 14 start to the fantasy playoffs. If your playoffs start a week earlier, see the attached spreadsheet to check the strength of Week 13 matchups.
Quarterbacks
Buy
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)
Rivers is the most obvious candidate among QBs for positive regression in the second half of the season. Aside from non-fantasy options Sam Bradford and Matt Moore, Rivers has the highest yards per touchdown thrown number (298 yards for each TD pass). To say it another way, Rivers is 9th in passing yards but only 23rd in TDs. What this means is that Rivers is producing yardage like a top ten quarterback but has had bad luck in the TD department. Yardage is something more within the control of the player, so as long as Rivers keeps putting up yardage, the TDs will come.
Rivers has also been unlucky in another category that is largely out of the quarterback’s hands, interception rate. His 4.2% rate is the fourth highest in the league. The league average this year is 2.7% and Rivers’ rate will certainly regress toward that mean. Rivers is still a top ten quarterback. He’s just been very unlucky.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)
Fitzy may be due for a minor amount of touchdown regression, but ultimately it’s nothing to be concerned about. On the other hand, his matchups during the fantasy playoffs are drool-worthy. After a tough matchup in week 14 against San Diego, Buffalo finishes the season with games against the three teams that have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s in Denver, Miami, and New England.
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Last year, Freeman finished 7th among quarterbacks. This year, he currently sits 14th. Last year, Freeman was the beneficiary of an ultra-lucky 1.3% interception rate. This year, his fortune has turned as his INT% is currently 3.7%. Freeman is 15th in passing yards and averages three fantasy points on the ground per game. If his luck is simply neutral going forward, he has the skill set to be a top ten QB in the second half.
Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)
Like Rivers and Freeman, Cassel has been unlucky with the interceptions. And like Fitzpatrick, he has a very easy schedule in weeks 15-17. He shouldn’t cost much if you’re looking for a reliable backup.
Sell
Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)
It’s understandable if you don’t think you’d be able to pull the trigger on dealing Stafford. After all, he is 4th among QBs in fantasy points ahead of guys like Tom Brady and Michael Vick. But there are reasons to at least consider moving Stafford. He has the lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and has an unsustainably low interception rate of 1.33%. His fantasy playoff schedule is rather favorable, and he’ll still be a top ten QB from here on out, but he’s not likely to continue as a top five QB, and you should part ways with him if you can get top five value back.
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
If you thought it would be crazy to trade away Stafford, I can imagine how crazy you must think it would be to deal Rodgers, but hear me out. He has the 2nd lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and his interception rate is even lower than Stafford’s (1.25%). His playoff schedule isn’t tough, but it’s also not one of the most favorable. Moreover, three of his last five games are in Green Bay, and his two road games are in cities that could also exhibit poor weather conditions (New York, Kansas City).
If you can afford to lose Rodgers because you drafted a viable backup like Stafford, Cam Newton, or even Eli Manning or Fitzpatrick, think seriously about trading Rodgers because of the ransom you could get in return. No matter how good he is, he will experience some level of regression, and his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.
Running Backs
Buy
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Shonn Greene (New York Jets)
Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos)
There’s no point in discussing each back individually because the analysis is the same for all three. Each back should see an increase in TD totals in the second half because they have high carry per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers. All that means is that these guys are getting the ball a lot and doing something productive when they get it. As long as that continues, they’ll eventually start finding the end zone more frequently.
MJD and Greene also have the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules of any backs that aren’t a part of a backfield committee. McGahee’s schedule isn’t quite as favorable, but he will see middling run defenses in three of the four fantasy playoff weeks.
Sell
LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)
BenJarvis Green-Ellis (New England Patriots)
Mike Tolbert (San Diego Chargers)
As you might have guessed given the previous analysis, each of the backs is due for regression in their touchdown totals. They all have low carries per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers, which means their touchdown totals are likely to be lower in the second half.
They also have rough schedules during the fantasy playoffs. McCoy and Tolbert will only see one defense in the last four weeks of the season that ranks among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. And Green-Ellis will only face one defense that is currently below average in that category.
Wide Receivers
Buy
Brandon Marshall (Miami Dolphins)
Marshall is 12th in receiving yards, 9th in receptions, and 7th in targets yet he only has one touchdown. That can’t last. With that amount of work, the touchdowns will come. In the fantasy playoffs, he will face a soft Buffalo secondary in Week 15 and an even softer New England secondary in Week 16. However, he has to face Philly’s corners in Week 14 and will visit Revis Island in the final week of the season.
All in all, you have to take the good with the bad with Marshall. Positive regression is on its way, but it may be mitigated somewhat by Matt Moore throwing him the ball. A couple matchups are awesome, but a couple matchups are brutal. Considering that it wouldn’t cost a ton to get Marshall right now, the good probably outweighs the bad.
Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Before his first career touchdown last week, Brown had the highest number of receiving yards without recording a touchdown catch. Even though he finally got in the end zone, there’s more regression to come in the way of touchdowns.
There’s more to like about Brown. He leads Pittsburgh in targets this season (yes, including Mike Wallace). And the playoff schedule isn’t as bad for Brown as it will be for Wallace. Both should feast on St. Louis’ secondary in Week 16, but they play Cleveland twice in the final four weeks. Fortunately for Brown, Joe Haden can only cover one man. He’ll undoubtedly focus on Wallace leaving Brown with second-tier coverage.
Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Steve Johnson (Buffalo Bills)
Because Freeman and Fitzpatrick are listed as in the QB “buy” section, it’s reasonable to assume that Williams and Johnson would be guys to target as well. Johnson isn’t in line for a bump in his touchdown total, but he’s not in line for a decline in that category either. His schedule during the playoffs is good just like Fitzpatrick’s, obviously, so he’s worth considering as a trade target.
Williams is a potential bargain both because Freeman’s play should improve and because, aside from Reggie Wayne, he is the most targeted receiver in the league (63) with only one touchdown or less. It’s just not feasible that he will continue to get that many looks and not get in the end zone.
Sell
A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)
Green is 18th in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and 14th in targets. There is nothing wrong with those numbers, but they aren’t exactly numbers you would expect to go along with receiver with the sixth highest fantasy point total. Driving Green’s borderline top five fantasy receiver success is his touchdown total (tied for 3rd among WRs). He should see a dip in touchdowns going forward and should slip outside the top ten among receivers by season’s end.
Victor Cruz (New York Giants)
Cruz is catching a touchdown pass once out of every seven of his receptions. Mario Manningham is catching a touchdown pass once out of every 24 of his receptions. That distribution of touchdowns is going to even out making Manningham the New York receiver you want to own behind Hakeem Nicks. And you might not want to own either of them during the playoffs as the Giants won’t face a single defense that is below average in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers in weeks 14-17.
Tight Ends
Buy
Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Winslow is the only tight end with at least 30 receptions who doesn’t have more than one touchdown catch. He also has two really sweet matchups to start the fantasy playoffs. He’ll face Jacksonville and Dallas who allow the 2nd and 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)
During the playoffs, Gonzalez won’t face a single defense that is currently in the top half of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Carolina (16th), Jacksonville (4th), New Orleans (12th), and Tampa Bay (5th) is about the best set of matchups you could hope for.
Add
Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, 8.6% owned)
Jake Ballard (New York Giants, 12.1% owned)
Both of these tight ends have been pretty damn good recently. Ballard is averaging almost nine points per game over his last four, and Celek has double digit points in consecutive weeks. Moreover, they have playoff schedules that are just about as good as Winslow’s and Gonzalez’s. If you’re someone who doesn’t own one of the 5-6 safe tight ends, you should be able to add these two off your wire, and they should pay dividends in the last few weeks of the year.
Sell
Jermichael Finley
Because Finley has been somewhat of a disappointment, he may be a tough player to sell at this point. However, there might be someone in your league who just looks at his point total and doesn’t realize he has recorded single digit points in six of seven games. What’s worse is that it’s not like he has been unlucky. In fact, he’s lucky that he has four touchdowns when he only has 25 receptions.
There are just too many options in Green Bay with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. Moreover, we’ve already discussed concerns that Rodgers’ production dips a little, and it should also be mentioned that James Starks’ touchdown total is not commensurate with his yardage production and the number of carries he has received. Without a killer schedule in the playoffs, there really isn’t a single factor pointing to a turnaround for Finley.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who actually feels like he provided some legitimately useful information this week. You can thank him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(October 18, 2009 - Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images North America)Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 9
 Pierre Thomas (credits below) QB Start: Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 8: @ Kansas City)
It seems ridiculous to recommend starting Rivers when he was generally the fifth quarterback taken, a high second/low third round pick, and someone who went for around $30 in auctions. But a lot of rankers have Rivers right around the cutoff point of tenth for those in standard ten-team leagues. It’s entirely possible that you have Rivers and added Tim Tebow a few weeks back. Or you might have Joe Flacco or Tim Hasselbeck backing up Rivers, both of whom have favorable matchups this week.
Tebow would be the most tempting to start over Rivers, but he has a tough matchup this week (Detroit), and despite ending up with 20+ fantasy points last week, he accumulated single digit fantasy points in the first 55 minutes of that game. Flacco and Hasselbeck are less tempting simply because of seemingly limited upside.
Don’t give up on the “elite” quarterback you drafted just yet. He’s been a bit unlucky as his interception rate is a little high at 4.1%, and his upside each week is still huge. We’re not yet at the point where Rivers isn’t an automatic start.
QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 8: Jacksonville)
Please welcome Mr. Schaub to the “QB Sit” section of this article for the third straight week. In week 6 he proved he belonged in this space, and in week 7 he turned in a top ten fantasy QB performance. Week 8 has the potential to be more like week 6 for Schaub as he faces a surprisingly tough Jacksonville defense. He’ll also be without Andre Johnson again this week, and he’ll have to compete for yardage with a healthy backfield duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 8: @ St. Louis)
It seems like ages ago, but Thomas has a 1,000+ total yard season with eight touchdowns under his belt. More recently he has had success as he racked up over 100 total yards last week. However, competition in the New Orleans backfield has kept Thomas’ fantasy value in check. But with Mark Ingram out this week, Thomas should see his fair share of touches.
Darren Sproles is likely to be the New Orleans back that touches the ball the most, but with a matchup that couldn’t be sweeter for running backs in the St. Louis Rams, both backs will have the opportunity to rack up fantasy points. Last week, DeMarco Murray torched St. Louis for 31 fantasy points, and backup Phillip Tanner got nine. The distribution should be a little more even between Sproles and Thomas, so each could easily have double digit fantasy points this week.
RB Sit: Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, Week 8: @ San Francisco)
It looks like Peyton Hillis will be out again this week, so Hardesty is in line to get his second straight start. The reasoning behind sitting Hardesty is pretty simple. San Francisco has allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to opposing RB’s by a fairly large margin. Moreover, Hardesty couldn’t get to 100 yards last week with 33 carries. This one’s a no-brainer, right?
WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8: New England)
After Mike Wallace, the exact order of Pittsburgh’s receivers on the depth chart has seemed a bit hazy. Hines Ward, Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders could be confused for a WR2 by committee. However, the young guys, Brown and Sanders, led both Wallace and Ward in targets last week.
Brown is probably in line ahead of Sanders as Sanders only saw his workload increase after Ward left with an injury. The good folks at ProFootballFocus.com tell us that Brown was targeted on 40% of his pass routes and averaged an impressive 3 yards per pass pattern. So Brown looks to solidly be the WR2 in Pittsburgh and for good reason. Opportunity + talent = success. Throw in a favorable matchup against a New England team who allows the most fantasy points on average to opposing WR’s and Brown looks to be a legitimate fantasy WR2 in week 8.
WR Sit: Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis Colts, Week 8: @ Tennessee)
Tennessee’s defense has been more than a little shaky lately, but, then again, so has Garcon. He had only three catches in a game where Indy was playing from behind from the outset. And despite Tennessee’s less-than-stellar showings the last two weeks, they still rank in the top five for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. The Titans seem to be much more vulnerable to the run and tight ends through the air. It’s hard to recommend starting any Colt these days, but maybe Delone Carter and Dallas Clark are the best fantasy options coming from the Colts against Tennessee.
TE Start: Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings, Week 8: @ Carolina)
Unfortunately, the Bears are on bye this week, so I can’t automatically put their opposing tight end in to this slot for once.
In Christian Ponder’s first start he targeted Shiancoe eight times and Visanthe got in the end zone. Minnesota’s week 8 opponent is a Carolina team that has been below average against the tight end. There’s a decent chance the Ponder-Shiancoe connection could thrive again in that matchup.
TE Sit: Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 8: Minnesota)
You’d think people would be off the Olsen bandwagon after two uninspiring performances in a row, but a lot of rankers still have him as a top ten option this week. It’s more a product of there being a stark lack of alternatives at the position than anything else, but you’d still think people would be willing to admit that Olsen sucks when Olsen has sucked right before their eyes for two consecutive weeks.
Jeremy Shockey out-targeted Olsen last week by a count of four to one. However, neither guy is a great option this week against the Vikings who allow less than 6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. When in doubt, assume Greg Olsen sucks, and leave him on the bench.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** Rangers. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(October 22, 2011 - Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 8, Week eight, Sit Start
 Jamaal Charles (credits below) When your dad offers to take you to Game 5 of the World Series on a Monday night, you forego your normal routine of, and loose obligation to, write your weekly MarketWatch article. As a result, MarketWatch is coming out on Thursday instead of Tuesday which means there’s really no point in discussing free agent pickups as almost every league’s waiver process is complete. Instead, let’s use this relative midpoint of most fantasy league regular seasons to examine whether certain draft day strategies have been successful so far in 2011.
Stars and Scrubs
In case you’re not familiar with the strategy that is “Stars and Scrubs,” the basic idea is that you spend a substantial portion of your auction budget on elite players, spend very little on mid-level players, and fill out your roster with a bunch of guys for a buck or two. It’s hard to say exactly where the cut off for elite “stars” was this year, but the top 30 in average draft position seems reasonable. So, if someone spent 75%+ on four, maybe five, top 30 players, how does their team look heading into Week 8?
The answer for that isn’t really an answer is: it depends on which elite players they got. Jamaal Charles is out for the year. Arian Foster scored three points in the first three weeks as he dealt with a hamstring issue. Andre Johnson, Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, Miles Austin, and Antonio Gates have all missed time due to injury. Even though they’ve been on the field, some “stars” have severely disappointed. Chris Johnson may still be holding out. Rashard Mendenhall has single digit fantasy points in five of seven weeks. Philip Rivers is 17th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. DeAngelo Williams looks finished.
If someone navigated the minefield and ended up with something like Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, and Hakeem Nicks (might’ve cost something around $160), then they’re probably sitting pretty. But avoiding the mines is difficult and often out of the fantasy owner’s control. “Stars and Scrubs” might be better termed “Boom or Bust.”
The other thing to consider is how much more devastating injuries and poor performance will be during the bye weeks and how difficult it may be to field a solid lineup without any depth during the bye weeks. In the end, “Stars and Scrubs” is far too risky a strategy. The chance that your fantasy season could effectively be over in the first few weeks isn’t a chance worth taking.
Wait on Kickers and Defense
Is there any reason to take a defense or a kicker before the last two rounds (rounds 15 and 16)?
To recap, four defenses drafted as top ten defenses are currently top ten fantasy defenses, and only five of the current top ten fantasy defenses were drafted as such. There is a lot of volatility at the position from year to year, and it’s somewhat unpredictable.
Moreover, the week to week success of a defense is more dependent on opponent than any offensive position. Because only 10-12 defenses are usually drafted in standard leagues, owners have the opportunity to take advantage of favorable matchups each week. Theoretically, and likely practically, fantasy owners can piece together a point total from the D/ST slot that equals that of a top five defense by taking a defense in the last two rounds and using the options on the wire.
Because you can get respectable production out of your defense with one of your last two picks, there is no need to waste a late mid-round pick that could potentially land you a position player like AJ Green, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham, Willis McGahee, Cam Newton, Darren Sproles, or Aaron Hernandez. Those lottery tickets are far more valuable than making sure you get the Eagles defense.
As for kickers, only 17 fantasy points separate the #1 kicker from the #10 kicker. By comparison, 72 points separate the #1 running back from the #25 running back (I’m assuming 5 RB’s are used in the flex spot), and 76 points separate the #1 wide receiver from the #25 wide receiver. In other words, kickers are all relatively the same. No point in using anything other than your last pick on one.
Almost everyone already knows there is no point in taking kickers and defenses before the last two rounds, but the evidence 2011 has presented reinforces that notion.
Wait on QB/TE or get an elite QB/TE?
There are two rationales for waiting on QB’s and TE’s.
The first is the perception that, like kickers, there is not a significant gap between the #1 and #10 at those positions. However, that perception is just plain false. 70 points separate Aaron Rodgers from Mark Sanchez and 50 points separate Jimmy Graham from Brandon Pettigrew. There is a clear delineation between the elite and everyone else at these two positions.
The second is the idea that if you lose your starting QB or TE to injury or have to bench them because of poor performance, you will have had to the chance to draft a respectable backup in the later rounds, or there will be options on the wire with which to replace them. This rationale holds up better than the first. Cam Newton (12th round), Mark Sanchez (13th round), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (14th round) range from a must-start quarterback to a surprisingly decent fantasy quarterback to a completely respectable quarterback. Moreover, Tim Tebow went undrafted and should be owned, and probably started, in every ten-team league.
As for tight ends, these current top ten tight ends were not among the first ten tight ends drafted: Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis, and Dustin Keller. Not to mention Aaron Hernandez, who might be a top five TE option going forward, was drafted behind almost all of those guys just listed.
It would appear, at least this year, that waiting on QB’s and TE’s could easily have paid huge dividends assuming you wisely used the early picks you saved for RB’s and WR’s.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would like to be reminded to update this article so that he can post it again during draft season next year. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(September 17, 2011 - Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 8
 Tim Tebow (Credits Below) QB Start: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 7: @ Miami) Tebow has been the starting quarterback for seven halves in his young career. In those seven halves he has averaged over 12 fantasy points per half. If you haven’t already done the math, that’s 24 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t shown the ability to be effective through the air (career 48.9% CMP%) which forces him to use his fantasy friendly ability to use his legs. Tebow has a rushing touchdown in all four games where he has been the starter, so starting Tebow is essentially like using a running back in your QB slot with the added bonus of a few passing points. Tebow might not be the answer at QB for the Broncos, but he is a must start for fantasy owners. QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 7: @ Tennessee) Schaub has had three good games which came against three defenses that all rank in the top five of most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. In two of those three games, Schaub had Andre Johnson to throw to. This week Schaub faces a defense that has allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Andre Johnson isn’t available (hamstring). Two “wrongs” don’t make a “right.” RB Start: Mike Tolbert (San Diego Chargers, Week 7: @ New York Jets) The J-E-T-S are N-O-T good against the run. They’ve allowed the second most rushing yards in the league and are tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed. Ryan Mathews is sure to benefit from the matchup as well, but the two San Diego backs have shared success in the same game before as they each scored double digit fantasy points in weeks 1 and 4. Tolbert is reportedly healthy and still the goal line back as well as an option in the passing game. He’ll find some yardage either on the ground or through the air and will get a chance to punch it into the end zone. RB Sit: Handcuffs starting this week Montario Hardesty, DeMarco Murray, and Maurice Morris are all getting the start this week as the lead backs in front of them are out with various injuries. However, it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the trio. Murray will be running behind a bad offensive line and alongside some competition in Tashard Choice. Wait and see how the carries are distributed among the two Dallas backs and whether either of them is able to be effective behind that line before starting them. Morris just may not be any good. Wait and see to make sure he doesn’t suck before using him. Of the three, Hardesty has the best chance to be a viable RB2 going forward. However, this week he faces a Seahawks defense that has actually been pretty good against the run. Use him if you must, and you may have to with six top 20 running backs on bye this week, but temper your expectations. WR Start: Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans, Week 7: Houston) Washington has been extremely consistent this year as he’s recorded at least 60+ receiving yards in every game. If and when he gets in the end zone, Washington will easily get into the double digits in fantasy points. During the bye weeks, you could do much worse than a safe six points with a pretty decent chance of cracking ten or even fifteen fantasy points. WR Sit: Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis Rams, Week 7: @ Dallas) Lloyd will be good in St. Louis, and he’ll likely be good sooner rather than later as he’s already familiar with Josh McDaniel’s offensive scheme. But it seems a little much to expect much from him after six days as a St. Louis Ram. Not to mention Sam Bradford is out and A.J. Feely will be throwing Lloyd the ball. Give Lloyd a week or two to get acclimated and Bradford a week or two to get healthy before reinserting Lloyd in your starting lineup. TE Start: Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 7: Chicago, game in London) The Bears D finally held an opposing tight end in check last week, but they only managed to do so against Visanthe Shiancoe with McNabb and Ponder throwing him the ball. And even after shutting down Shiancoe the Bears still allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Winslow leads the Bucs in receptions this year, but has yet to find the end zone. With such a good matchup, expect Josh Freeman to continue to heavily target Winslow and for Winslow to finally find pay dirt. TE Sit: Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 7: @ San Diego) Let’s be clear, if Gates is healthy, he could go off. Even though it’s not the most favorable matchup, Gates is on a level where matchups don’t matter too much when he’s 100%. But is he 100%? He seems likely to go on Sunday, but the Chargers chose not to let Gates practice three days in a row this week. Will he be able to play in three straight series’ on Sunday? It’s just that Gates’ questionable tag raises a lot more questions than one might normally have for a guy listed as questionable. Because there are so many questions and because the matchup isn’t ideal, it might be smart to leave Gates on your bench until he proves he can make it on to, and stay on, the field. If you are a Gates owner, you have likely found a decent backup option by now. If that’s the case, roll with your plan B for one more week. If you’ve been piecing together your TE starters with waiver wire slop, you can understandably roll the dice with Gates. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who really “went out on a limb” with that Brandon Lloyd call. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.Photo Credit: (October 8, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 7, Week seven, Sit Start, Time Tebow, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow, Nate Washington, Matt Schaub, Mike Tolbert, Brandon Lloyd
 Mario Manningham (credits below) Unless you watch every play of a football game, you won’t see how every player impacted the game. Even when you do watch every play, it’s impossible to watch all 22 guys. The impact of a nickel back bumping a receiver off his route and disrupting the play or the impact of a second-level block by the left guard inevitably go unnoticed all too frequently. And because football box scores are limited to things like yardage, reception and carries, and tackles, the impact of these things is never recorded and essentially ignored and/or forgotten.
Because that is the nature of the football beast, you might have missed just how close Mario Manningham (New York Giants) came to having a monster day. The box score shows Manningham finished the day with five catches for 56 yards on eight targets. But what the box score doesn’t tell you is that Manningham had two touchdown receptions overturned by replay and another pass thrown his way that likely would have been a touchdown catch had pass interference not been called on his defender.
One thing the box score does show us is that Manningham led the Giants in targets and doubled up his competition for the #2 receiver spot, Victor Cruz, in that category. Manningham’s 900+ yards and nine touchdowns in 2010 are evidence that he is a better receiver than Cruz. As a result, Manningham should continue to see more opportunity than Cruz. With the opportunity and skill all Manningham needs is some good luck. Hell, all he may need is the absence of bad luck. Unless you’re a fan of the Cubs, Clippers or any Cleveland team, bad luck never lasts. Manningham should see some positive regression in the luck category sometime soon and is an excellent buy-low candidate.
The Free MarketQB Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, 40.5% owned)
Maybe it’s because Denver had a bye last week, but Tebow only saw his ownership percentage increase by 38% in the week after he replaced Kyle Orton in the 2nd half of Denver’s game against San Diego. That was a second half in which Tebow managed to accumulate 16 fantasy points. Sixteen! In one half! If Tebow wasn’t added in your league, don’t let him slip through your fingers again this week. Denver faces Miami in Week 7 and the Dolphins are terrible against the QB. Tebow should have a big game and could very well be owned in virtually all leagues this time next week.
RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 15.4% owned)
Thanks to injuries to Jerome Harrison and James Davis, Peyton Hillis grabbed the lead back role in Cleveland early in the 2010 season. With Hillis’ health in question, Hardesty could potentially pull a ‘Hillis’ on Hillis himself.
Hillis is a better back than Harrison and Davis were, so whenever it is that he’s back on the field he’s likely to put a significant hit on any fantasy value Hardesty may obtain. But for the time being Hardesty is a guy getting all the carries. That alone has value, but this isn’t a situation where the new #1 back is someone we know to be inadequate or washed up. Hardesty is a second year back but essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with an injury. Who knows? Maybe Hardesty is a legitimate NFL runner. You should add him and hope that he is while hoping that Hillis stays off the field.
RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys, 3.3% owned)
Murray is in a situation similar to Hardesty as Felix Jones is out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Also like Hardesty, Murray is a young player. However, Murray’s immediate future doesn’t look quite as bright as Murray will have some competition with Tashard Choice for carries and will have to deal with a bad offensive line. If you’re desperate for RB help or just have a bench spot to play with on your roster, Murray is worth speculatively adding.
WR Jerome Simpson (Cincinnati Bengals, 36.2% owned)
Simpson has topped 100 yards receiving yards twice this season, both times against defenses that rank in the top 5 of most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (Denver and Indianapolis). So Simpson is a mainly a matchup play. Unfortunately, the Bengals have two games remaining against Baltimore and two games remaining against Pittsburgh as well as two other unfavorable matchups against Tennessee and Cleveland. However, there are a few good matchups left on Cincinnati’s slate, one of which comes two weeks from now when they come off their bye to face Seattle.
Simpson has yet to score a touchdown so some positive regression in that category is to be expected at some point. For those of you that will be without Roddy White, Greg Jennings or Santonio Holmes in week 8, maybe you should grab Simpson heading into his bye this week and use him as a fill in next week.
WR Jabar Gaffney (Washington Redskins, 7.6% owned)
How about this for consistency? Gaffney has between 54 and 62 yards receiving in each of his five games. He has been good for 5-6 fantasy points per week and recorded 11 fantasy points when he caught a touchdown pass in week 1. During the bye weeks you could do much worse than a guy who is almost certain to give you 5-6 points and potentially double digits if he gets in the end zone.
TE Fred Davis (Washington Redskins, 47.3% owned)
Although you can’t catch every detail when watching a football game, that doesn’t mean things can’t stand out. And Fred Davis stood out on Sunday. Although Philadelphia isn’t the greatest against opposing tight ends, Davis did what a good tight end should do against a team like that. He had six catches for an impressive 95 yards. He also led the team in targets with 11 (Gaffney was 2nd with 10). His ownership percentage should be, and will be, much higher than the 50% mark.
TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, 6.6% owned)
After almost 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in 2009, Celek was poised to be an excellent young tight end for years to come. But then Michael Vick came along and the results were never the same for Celek. However, he did show signs of life late in 2010. Aside from two games against the Cowboys where he failed to record a catch, Celek had a decent last six weeks of the season with games of 11, 5, 13, and 9 fantasy points. That success did not really carry over to this season as he had only five fantasy points in the first five games, but he had 42 yards and a touchdown catch this week for a ten fantasy point day. There’s a good chance Sunday was an aberration, but Celek is at least worth monitoring after Philly’s bye this week.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes his friends sometimes had bye weekends from their wives. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (September 18, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 7
 Mark Ingram (credits below) QB Start: Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6: New Orleans)
With only one touchdown and four picks thrown in the last three weeks (and a particularly brutal performance at San Francisco last week), it is understandable if your faith in Freeman is a bit shaken.
But he can’t be this bad, right? Right.
At first glance, the fact that Freeman has already equaled his interception total from last season is alarming, but Freeman’s INT% was an unsustainably low 1.3% last year. The spike in INT’s was inevitable. Chase Stuart from FootballGuys.com has done some excellent work that shows QB interception totals are extremely random, so predicting further interception problems for Freeman going forward based on the first five games would be ridiculous.
And has he really been that bad? Aside from last week’s stinker, Freeman averaged just over 15 fantasy points per game over the first four week’s which almost equaled his 2010 average when he was the 7th highest scoring fantasy quarterback. Freeman’s ability to grab a couple extra points with rushing yards and to occasionally take the ball into the end zone himself help him accumulate points even when he doesn’t have his best day through the air. And let’s not forget that it hasn’t been all bad through the air as Freeman has improved his completion percentage from 61.4% last year to 64.0% this year.
This week Freeman faces a New Orleans team that generally forces teams to throw from behind and is better at stopping the run than they are the pass (10th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RB’s; 8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s). So this is a good matchup for a good quarterback. Sounds like a start to me.
QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 6: @ Baltimore)
This call is a layup. So much so that I almost feel like it’s pointless to put him here. But Schaub was selected among the top 40-50 players and was the sixth or seventh QB taken, so some might hesitate to leave a fairly high pick like that on the bench.
Schaub faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QB’s, is one of only six teams to have allowed less than 1,000 passing yards, and is tied for the fewest amount of passing touchdowns allowed. Moreover, that Ravens D is at home and coming off a bye. Throw in the absence of Andre Johnson and Schaub is a big stay away this week. If you backed him up with someone like Eli, Flacco, Fitzpatrick, or even Freeman, this is a week to make use of the backup.
RB Start: Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints, Week 6: @ Tampa Bay)
Ken Daube wrote an article for ESPN.com this week detailing Ingram’s failure to meet expectations. Daube cites Ingram’s low touchdown success ratio on carries inside an opponent’s ten (10%) as well as his low percentage of rushes that go for ten or more yards. One way of looking at that info, and how Daube sees it, is that those who believed in Ingram were wrong to take him in the 7th-8th round.
The other way of looking at it is that Ingram is due. Saying he’s due may not sound like solid reasoning, but all I mean is that there may be some regression to the mean in order. Touchdown percentage is a category where regression to the mean is bound to happen at some point. Unless Ingram stops getting carries in close, and there’s no indication of that happening, the touchdowns will come.
As for the criticism regarding Ingram’s failure to have runs longer than ten yards, Mike Clay pointed out on Twitter (@PFF_MikeClay) that Ingram has the same median run as Sproles and Thomas. Just because Ingram hasn’t busted one yet doesn’t mean he never will. He’s only played five games, so the sample size is pretty small. Whenever Ingram does bust one, his yards per carry will look like it should.
Against a Tampa run defense that has turned in varying results, I say this is the week Ingram gets what’s coming to him. I say he breaks one which helps him have his first 75-80+ yard rushing day, and I say he makes good on one of those carries in close.
RB Sit: Jahvid Best (Detroit Lions, Week 6: San Francisco 49ers)
Until further notice, it’s probably a good idea to sit all but the elite backs when they face the 49ers. This run defense is stout. They’re one of four teams that have yet to allow 300 rushing yards this season, one of two teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a running back, and the only team that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown at all.
Best is a back that can make hay as a member of the passing game, but San Fran has had success shutting down similar backs like LeSean McCoy and Felix Jones. Despite Best’s big play ability, he’s likely to get shut down this week.
WR Start: Mario Manningham (New York Giants, Week 6: Buffalo Bills)
Because Buffalo puts up a lot of points (3rd in points per game) and doesn’t have the best defense (3rd most yards per game allowed), this game has the potential to be a bit of a shoot out. The Bills D also allows 25 fantasy points per game to opposing WR’s, so there should be plenty to go around for New York receivers.
Hakeem Nicks is sure to get his and Victor Cruz has 54 fantasy points in the last three weeks, but I’m going with a gut call and saying Manningham gets in on the action this week. It’s hard to believe that a receiver with 900 yards and 9 TD’s last year will permanently disappear, and this matchup lends itself to Manningham finally showing up.
WR Sit: Santana Moss (Washington Redskins, Week 6: Philadelphia)
The blueprint to attacking the Eagles defense is a steady dose of hand offs, getting the ball to your backs in the passing game, and utilizing your tight end if you have one. The best plan of attack does not involve the heavy usage of your wide receivers. The Eagles have allowed the fifth fewest receptions to receivers but have given up the most rushing yards in the league and have been burned by the two respectable tight ends they have faced.
Whether it’s Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, or some practice squad running back you’ve never heard of, a Redskins running back is going to have a big day. And Fred Davis and Chris Cooley could have big days and are likely to be targeted in the red zone. Moss is usually a safe play (at least seven fantasy points each week), but this just isn’t a good matchup for him.
TE Start: Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings, Week 6: @Chicago) To be fair to the Chicago defense, they have faced an excellent group of tight ends in Gonzalez, Graham, Finley, Olsen, and Pettigrew. But they have shown no indication that they are capable of stopping the tight end. As a result, I’m recommending the opposing tight end of the Bears every week until Urlacher and company give me a reason to do otherwise.
TE Sit: Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 6: @ Atlanta)
Call me crazy, but I’m going to bet on Greg Olsen not scoring a touchdown four weeks in a row. Even if Atlanta wasn’t one of the better teams against the tight end, and even if Jeremy Shockey wasn’t around to potentially steal Olsen’s thunder, I’d still be willing to take my chances on Olsen not getting in the end zone for a fourth consecutive week. But as it turns out, Atlanta is one of the better teams against the tight end, and Jeremy Shockey is a factor. So I’ll definitely take my chances.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who just wrote Ingram is going to bust a big one. That’s what she said. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(September 17, 2011 - Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 6, Week Six
 Tim Tebow (credits below) TINSTAAFL. That is the only thing I remember from my high school economics class. Mr. Warner, my extremely nice and extremely bald teacher, had that all caps acronym written on the dry erase board the first day of class. It stands for “There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.”
Seeing as how this phrase could be considered as much common sense as it could an economic lesson, one could argue that I learned absolutely nothing in Mr. Warner’s class. However, Mr. Warner was the commissioner of the first fantasy league I ever played in, and I consider the role he played in developing my fantasy sports addiction to be far more beneficial than anything he could have taught me about the invisible hand and whatnot.
Today I’m going to be your economics teacher. Or at least I’m going to analogize fantasy football to an economic theory in order to teach you something about fantasy football. I hope, but don’t necessarily expect, to be more successful than ole’ Mr. Warner was.
Sell High
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) states the idea that financial markets are “informationally efficient”. In other words, the market knows everything that you do, so it’s impossible to consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns.
There are three different forms of the EMH. The relevant form to the analogy that I promise I’ll make soon is weak-form efficiency. In weak-form efficiency, future prices cannot be predicted by analyzing prices from the past. Excess returns cannot be earned in the long run by using investment strategies based on historical share prices or other historical data.
In fantasy football, touchdowns are the equivalent of historical share prices and historical data. Using touchdowns already scored as a prediction of future success is a mistake. Touchdowns are too variable. Getting in the end zone is too dependent on factors out of the player’s control like situation and play calling to name a few. Not to mention that scoring plays make up a very small sample size. The better approach is to look at how frequently a player is used and how consistently they are able to put up yardage.
By that logic, LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) is a prime sell high candidate. McCoy’s seven total touchdowns account for 45% of his fantasy production this year. That’s one of the highest percentages of any RB/WR along with guys like Calvin Johnson (who I recommended selling high on in last week’s article) Beanie Wells, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert. It’s virtually impossible that McCoy will be able to maintain this TD rate. As a result, McCoy’s value is as high as it will be. If you can swap him for a legitimate top ten player, pull the trigger. Or deal him for a package of players in order to add depth or address any weaknesses your team may have.
The Free Market
I’m not exactly sure how it took me six weeks to realize that I should do a waiver wire pick up section called The Free Market. Seems kind of obvious. Oh well, better late than never. Here are some waiver wire guys to target as we head toward week 6.
Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, 2.6% owned)
Whether Tebow is the QB that gives the Broncos the best chance to win is a discussion for other forums. And I’m sure the national media will discuss it ad nauseam. The relevant discussion for this forum is whether Tebow is a QB who gives your fantasy team the chance to win.
The answer to that inquiry is unequivocally yes. In the final three games of the 2010 season, Tebow racked up game totals of 22, 22, and 27 points as Denver’s starting QB. His ability to make plays with his legs enables him to rack up the fantasy points. If you don’t own one of the elite seven QB’s (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo, Stafford), then you should be using your #1 waiver priority to get Tebow.
Jackie Battle (Kansas City Chiefs, 0.7% owned)
Matt Cassel handed the ball off to a running back 33 times last week, and 19 of those handoffs were to Battle. What’s more is that Battle did something with his touches. He racked up 119 yards on the ground for an average of over six yards per carry, and he added a couple of receptions for 21 yards. All the scoring was done by Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston, but if Battle continues to get the ball at that rate, he’ll find the end zone soon enough. Maybe Battle is just the flavor of the week, but the opportunity is there for him to be a consistent producer. He’s definitely worth adding in ten-team leagues.
Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.1% owned)
Dwyer is a much more speculative add than Battle, but for those of you in deeper leagues or those desperate for help at the running back position, Dwyer is worth a look. He topped 100 yards rushing with only 11 carries this week, and if Mendenhall misses anymore time, Dwyer might be the guy you want to own over Isaac Redman.
Jacoby Jones (Houston Texans, 15.4% owned)
Jones was a popular pickup last week after Andre Johnson went down with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, he was unable to capitalize on his increased role in the offense as he hauled in just one pass for nine yards. However, Jones was targeted a team high eleven times. According to ProFootballFocus.com, Jones entered the game against Oakland with 70% career catch rate on balls thrown his way. So the 9% catch rate this week was out of character for Jones and an aberration.
Houston faces Baltimore and Tennessee the next two weeks which aren’t ideal matchups, but if Johnson misses more time, Jones will continue to be targeted fairly heavily. Odds are he won’t lay such a complete egg again.
Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 0.0% owned)
Since Kenny Britt went down for the season, the pecking order of Tennessee’s receiving corp has been muddled to say the least. It’s pretty much been Nate Washington and everyone else. But week 5 brought some clarity to the situation.
Again, according to ProFootballFocus.com, Williams played 62 snaps on Sunday, more than any other Tennessee receiver, including Washington. Williams also led the team in targets with eleven and hauled in six of them for 66 yards and a score. It’s possible that Williams isn’t just the next best option past Washington but the best option himself.
Who knows if this latest status quo will be maintained going forward, but it’s not often that you see a potential #1 receiver that is literally not owned in any leagues.
Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans, 7.9% owned)
Speaking of Tennessee pass catchers, Cook followed up his 93 yards and a score in week 4 with four more catches and 59 yards in week 5. He trailed only Williams in targets and recorded his highest snap total of the season with 57.
Cook seems to be starting to display some of that talent everyone was talking about during the preseason. The combination of that skill and all the opportunity he has been getting lately could potentially make Cook a top ten tight end option at some point this season.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who took most of that economic jargon off Wikipedia. Thanks Wikipedia. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(October 8, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 6
 Ryan Fitzpatrick (credits below) QB Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills (Week 5: Philadelphia)
Fitzpatrick has had three good games and one bad game. The good games all came against teams that rank in the top ten of most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. The bad game came against a team that ranks in the top ten for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. This week Fitzy faces a Philly team whose secondary has been of the middle-of-the-road variety so far, but everyone expects that secondary is capable of performing, and will perform, at a higher level.
The criticisms of Fitzpatrick’s actually physical ability to play QB are that he’s not accurate enough and doesn’t have a big arm. Last year he was 27th in the NFL in completion percentage, and, though he’s improved, he’s still not among the elite in that category at 13th so far this season. As far as arm strength is concerned, he ranked outside the top 20 in yards per completion last season and is only 18th so far this season.
Everyone seems to have bought in completely on Fitzpatrick, but it’s not overtly clear why that is. Sure, there have been some big games, but there have been some bad ones, too. With questions about his physical tools, a spotty track record, and a potentially difficult opposing secondary, Fitzpatrick isn’t an automatic start, even during the bye weeks.
QB Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Not that this is breaking news or anything, but Ryan puts up better numbers at home. Specifically, his completion percentage is over six points higher in the dome, his yards per attempt mark is full yard higher, and he’s got the same amount of TD’s and ten less INT’s than he does on the road in four fewer games played.
This week he faces a Green Bay team that forces their opponents to throw from behind in excess and isn’t very good at stopping their opponent from doing so successfully. They allow an average of 21.8 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s and have allowed the second most passing yards so far.
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers(Week 5: @ San Francisco)
I love LeGarrette Blount. So much so that I overpaid for him in more than one draft, and I might even be willing to let him sucker punch me. But his matchup against the Niners this week has to make you think about leaving him on your bench. With six teams on bye, it’s entirely possible (if not likely) that you don’t have the option of not using Blount this week. However, if Blount is your RB2 and you drafted some other guys late (i.e. Tolbert, Ingram, Starks, Addai, McGahee, or even Isaac Redman), this might be the week to put them to use.
San Francisco’s run D has been absolutely stifling to this point. They’ve allowed only 27 total fantasy points to opposing RB’s(*), and they haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown. And it isn’t like they haven’t played a team with a decent back. They shut down McCoy on the ground (although the Eagles didn’t elect to run much) as well as Benson, Jones (Felix), and Lynch. Throw in the short week after 25 carries on Monday night, and Blount may not be able to get much done on the West Coast.
For comparison’s sake, the Eagles have allowed at least 26 fantasy points to opposing RB’s in every single week.RB Start: New Orleans running backs (Week 5: @ Carolina)
For starters, Carolina’s run defense is atrocious. They got torched by Forte last week, gave up 100+ yards to MJD before that, and allowed 100 yards and a score to teams with marginal backs like Beanie Wells and James Starks.
Darren Sproles is the best of the bunch as he has double digit fantasy points in each of the first four weeks. He’s getting it done on the ground and through the air and is basically playing like Reggie Bush will always wish he could. Mark Ingram is also an RB2 in ten-team leagues for the week as far as I’m concerned. Carolina should be able to somewhat keep pace with the Saints, allowing for New Orleans to continue running the ball for the entirety of the game. There is a pretty decent chance Ingram finds the end zone as a result. Pierre Thomas is also an option in deeper leagues or possibly as a flex play in shallower leagues for those who are missing RB’s because of the byes. There’s more than a non-existent chance that Thomas gets a TD this week.
WR Sit: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints(Week 5: @ Carolina)
As mentioned above, Carolina is particularly vulnerable on the ground making it likely New Orleans scores via the ground game this week. Moreover, the Saints now have Jimmy Graham as a very reliable red zone option. There’s also the general frustrating boom-or-bust nature of owning Saints receivers. Even when Colston has been on the field week in and week out, you have never known when other receivers would get all the looks and Colston would put up a stinker. But with Colston in just his second game since returning from a broken collarbone, there’s an added element of uncertainty with him this week. You probably need to see him play a full game of snaps and produce on some level before reinserting him into your starting lineup.
WR Start: Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (Week 5: @ New York Giants)
When doing these start/sit articles, you kind of go through a checklist of things with each player. For example, this is the list I used to determine whether Rice was the receiver with which I wanted to put myself out there:
Has he performed well to this point: Check. Double digit performance in both starts.
Is he facing a non-threatening secondary: Check. Giants are injury depleted in the secondary and have allowed an average of over 20 points per game to opposing WR’s.
Will his team be throwing throughout the game: Check. Rice’s Seahawks are playing a superior opponent and should have to throw the ball from behind.
TE Sit: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Here is what I wrote about Gonzalez when I recommended you sit him in last week’s start/sit article:
**Gonzalez had his lowest reception total since 2002 last season and his lowest yardage total since he became a starter in 1998. He has also managed only six touchdown catches in each of the last two seasons. Two of his touchdowns this season came against an Eagles team that has a tough time defending tight ends. With all that in mind, it’s easy to see that Gonzalez will not be able to sustain his current touchdown rate. And his value is tied to those touchdowns as the points accumulated via his three touchdown catches account for more than half of his fantasy points this season (24 of 45). When the touchdown faucet gets turned off, Gonzalez’s value will be minimal.**
I’m sticking to my guns on this one, even if it means I shoot myself in the foot.
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (Week 5: @ Detroit)
Since I went with Gonzalez as my TE “sit” for the second consecutive week, I’m going to recommend starting Pettigrew for the second consecutive week as well. In fact, since I’m lazy, here’s what I wrote about Pettigrew last week:
**It seems that I can’t write a single fantasy football article without making at least one reference to ProFootballFocus.com, and this article is no different. They guys at PFF have developed a set of criteria in order to determine which TE’s will put up consistent numbers going forward. With Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates out, only seven TE’s meet the criteria, and Pettigrew is one of them (along with Gronkowski, Graham, Keller, Witten, Finley, and Davis).**
Pettigrew also has a nice matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far. They’ve allowed at least five receptions and at least 70 yards to opposing tight ends in each week this season.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would probably list Tony Gonzalez as a “sit” for the remainder of the season if he was the regular author of the start/sit article. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(September 24, 2011 - Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 5, Week Five
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