2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and I also hope you are still in the championship hunt with two games to play. Monday night's Falcons vs. Saints game promises to be explosive, with plenty of fantasy stars on display. With a win, the Falcons take the division and home field advantage, but don't forget about the defending champs who are quietly putting together a very strong defense of last year's Super Bowl victory. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are the fifth and sixth ranked fantasy QB's, respectively. Tonight's game will be a true test for Matt Ryan as he's been nails at home, but the Saints give up the 3rd fewest points to opposing QB's and are ranked first against wide receivers. You are starting a fourth ranked Roddy White at receiver, even if he is a little banged up, but he will be tested throughout the game by that Saints secondary. The best bet for the Falcons is to stick to the ground, with Michael Turner as the Saints are only 19th against the run. Despite the Saints stingy passing defense, the Falcons handled it last time and they are even better when playing at home. In fact, in their first meeting all the Falcons usual suspects had great games; Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez all scored. Plus, Matt Ryan threw a couple of touchdown passes. In the championship week, you don't mess around, so you are playing all these guys and hoping for a repeat performance. The Saints' road to fantasy stats is not as daunting. The Falcons do not have the same defensive chops as the Saints. Drew Brees had a great game the first time around with 365 yards and three touchdowns and you can expect much the same tonight. As for the running game, it is really anyone's guess. Chris Ivory filled in admirably while Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas were nursing injuries, but now he is banged up. There really is no telling how carries will be split if, and I do mean if, everyone is healthy. Considering we don't know the relative health of the three running backs, it's best to stay away. I expect good games from Marques Colston and Lance Moore, as both receive a ton of red zone targets (third and fifth in the league, respectively). This game will serve as a true test of the Falcons. Are they a paper champion or can they close out an excellent team in December? We'll see tonight. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Monday Night Football, Week 16, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Drew Brees 1 Comment  Merry Christmas everyone. As a present, the NFL presents Jon Kitna vs. John Skelton! Who could ask for anything more!? This is definitely the equivalent of coal in the stocking. Thankfully, Christmas Day is normally the "coming out" day for the NBA, so nobody is expecting a top-notch game. Still, Roger Goodell had to be hoping for something better under his tree. For many leagues, we've entered the championship week, and for other leagues, it is the semifinals, so times are tense and there is no room for error. Thankfully, or at least hopefully, you aren't depending too much on the players in this game. Let's start with Arizona...basically nobody is a starter. The revolving door that is the QB situation in Arizona has completely destroyed all value for Larry Fitzgerald (while children around the world go to sleep dreaming about Santa, I'm sure he dreams about the good old days of Kurt Warner, and to a lesser extent, Matt Leinart). Larry Fitzgerald might be the most talented receiver in the league and against a terrible Dallas passing defense, he might be worth a gamble. After a huge Week 14, it looked like Tim Hightower might crack into that semi-starter/flex-player option, but he humiliated himself against a weak Carolina Panthers team, so unless you are desperate, he's out. You can't trust anyone on the Cardinals; if you have Larry Fitzgerald you might feel obligated to start him against the team that gives up the most points to opposing wide receivers. The Cowboys' 31st-ranked defense against QBs brought "Sexy Rexy" Grossman back from the dead, but I'm not sure Skelton has the ability to take advantage of this juicy matchup. This Dallas team is trying to finish strong during a complete train wreck of a season. They started with Super Bowl hopes, and now they are jockeying for draft position and trying out a new coach. The silver lining: the always-smug Jerry Jones doesn't get his "home" Super Bowl game. Jon Kitna has been a revelation this year. Despite a late start to the season, he sits as the 22nd-ranked QB and could finish the season in the top 15. The Cardinals are surprisingly good against opposing QBs as they rank No. 8, but part of that can be attributed to large, early leads built by the opposition, who then turn to the run game. The numbers bear this out, as they are No. 31 against the run. Felix Jones has been surprising consistent since Week 10—receiving enough carries each week to make him a worthy flex option. The problem with the Cowboys though is that Marion Barber and Tashard Choice will also get touches. The Cowboys as a team will probably put up gaudy rushing numbers, but whether or not that will translate into a good fantasy day for any single RB is a pure gamble. Despite huge expectations and lofty draft status, Miles Austin has been more Grinch than Santa, especially after Jon Kitna burst on the scene and decided that Dez Bryant was the better receiver. Well, Dez is gone, and we are waiting for Miles to take advantage as he sits as the 15th-ranked WR. He hasn't had more than nine points in three weeks and hasn't eclipsed four catches in nine of the last 10 weeks—those are not No. 1 receiver stats. Still Miles is tough to sit because he can find the end zone at any time. In a terrible year for tight ends, Jason Witten is a must-start (he's No. 2 in points for TEs for the season) and the Arizona defense is not going to do anything to scare you away. At the end of the day, Dallas has more talent and more fantasy stars, but let's hope you get something nice under the tree, because this game won't be much of a present. Merry Christmas everyone! Written by Chris Summers exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix, or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Chris Summes, Christmas Football, Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals  Sidelined from week 9-13 with a hamstring injury, Torain has returned with a vengeance. With no competition for snaps restraining his productivity, he ran for 172 yards on 24 carries vs. Tampa Bay in week 14, and posted 98 all-purpose yards and a TD last week at Dallas. In six games as the starting running back he's compiled 500 yards rushing (83 per game). Renowned as a downhill, one cut runner, Torain has seven runs of 20+ yards in 126 carries, and is averaging 4.9 yards per rush on the season. While not a huge factor out of the backfield, he does have 15 receptions, six going for first down yardage and two scores. Grossman was quite content in checking down to him last week. I've been fading the dreadful Jacksonville pass defense all season, but they haven't exactly bottled up the run either. The Jags have allowed 116 rush yards per game (4.6 per carry) and 15 touchdowns. They were pierced for 155 yards last week by the Colts anemic ground game. Torain has proven capable of monstrous fantasy weeks, and this is a golden opportunity to tack on another against the Jaguar piñata. Sit him at your own risk. RB Sit: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns The waiver wire hero has developed a true cult following. He's amassed the second most fantasy points of any RB (behind only Arian Foster) and has been a savior for many fantasy squads. Nevertheless, Hillis suffered a rough patch earlier in the year, and his performance is dipping once again at the most inopportune time. He's an absolute beast, but this workload is foreign territory and he takes (and dishes out) a beating week in week out. He averaged 111 rushing yards per game in November, but that figure has dropped to 75 in December. His last three games: 18 carries for 57 yards (seven receptions for 22), 21 carries for 108 yards against the bewildered Buffalo run defense and 14 carries for 59 yards last week. He's been held out of the end zone for three successive weeks, as he, and he alone, has been the focus of the opponents defensive game plan. Hillis has suffered with fumblitis as well, fumbling eight times and losing five. He torched Baltimore in the first meeting for 144 rushing yards (48 yarder, longest given up by Ravens this season) and seven catches. The Ravens have since righted the ship, however, ranking 5th against the run, holding the opposition to 94 yards per game and five touchdowns. They held the Saints to a paltry 27 yards last week. It's not easy to sit a fantasy phenom, but sometimes the situation calls for making difficult decisions.  QB Start: Jon Kitna, Dallas Cowboys At 38 years of age, Kitna is producing like a QB in the prime of his career. In nine starts since Tony Romo's injury he has four 300+ yard games and five multi-touchdown games. Kitna has led the Cowboys rejuvenated offense to 27 or more points in six straight weeks, throwing 11 TD's against four interceptions during that 4-2 stretch. His comfort level with tight end Jason Witten continues to augment each week, and he's spreading the wealth all over the gridiron (eight different receivers in week 14 and seven last week). Kitna's 18.4 fantasy points per week (according to standard Yahoo scoring) eclipse the 17.9 of Matt Ryan and 17.5 of Joe Flacco. There's no reason to believe he won't at the very least match that figure against an Arizona pass defense that ranks 23rd allowing 228 yards per game, rarely putting opposing quarterback's under pressure (26 sacks). They also haven't faced a dynamic passing offense since New Orleans in week five. Kitna and co. should move the rock at will. QB Sit: Matt Casell, Kansas City Chiefs Cassel appeared reasonably healthy last week just 11 days removed from an appendectomy. His health, albeit, has no impact on this sit recommendation. Cassel's 24:5 TD:INT rate is extremely impressive, but he amassed huge touchdown weeks against questionable, at best, secondaries in SF, HOU, DEN, SEA (14 of his 24 scores to be exact). Outside of his ability to connect in the end zone, he's provided limited fantasy appeal (10th rated QB). He's averaging 206 yards per contest with seven games below 200 yards, and has cracked the 300-yard plateau just once (469 on 53 attempts). The Chiefs are a running, ball control style offense, with a high frequency of conservative passes–then taking an occasional deep shot with Dwayne Bowe. Tennessee's secondary won't be bated into a big play, as they keep everything in front of them and rely on making a quick tackle. The Titans allow 65 percent completions, but only 6.8 yards per attempt. Over the course of the game yards can be accumulated, but a strict regimen of pass is required. That is not Kansas City's style. They'd prefer to grind it out on the ground. If you have another viable option for championship week, utilize it.  WR Start: Santonio Holmes, New York Jets Against elite level defenses you need to pass to establish the run. Hopefully the Jets came to grips with this phenomenon last week. They still played the game relatively close to the vest, but gave quarterback Mark Sanchez more opportunities to leave his imprint on the outcome. The same approach will be necessary this week at Chicago, which is excellent news for Holmes owners. He proved last week that he's capable of taking on the role of "security blanket" (six catches for 40 yards) and has been targeted 84 times in ten games. But make no mistake; his true value lies in his acclaimed game-breaking ability. Holmes has nine receptions of 20 or more yards in the last seven weeks (including four over 35 yards). While Sanchez doesn't always throw the ball accurately in the intermediate routes, he throws an aesthetically pleasing deep ball. If the Jets can run successfully early on, that will open shots down the field to Holmes (and Braylon Edwards). The Bears secondary allows easy completions (62 percent) and yardage (221 per game), but stiffen up on the goal line allowing only 12 air scores. *Monitor turf toe as game day approaches. WR Sit: Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans The media/fantasy hype surrounding Britt is spiraling out of control. 353 of his 601 receiving yards and three of his seven touchdowns came in a two-week period. Outside of those two explosive efforts, he's missed four and a half weeks with a hamstring injury and was held below 41 yards in five games. He did crack the goal line in five successive weeks between three-seven, but his high-reception game was five, and high-yardage output was 86. He's only seeing six targets per week (54 total), albeit was targeted nine times last week against Houston's invisible coverage. Tennessee is still a predominantly rushing offense unless they fall behind early. Their passing attack will never be classified as efficient, with Collins averaging 195 yards in five games started. The reward is high (18 yards per catch) but the risk of a no-show is very real. In three games against the AFC West (left the San Diego game with injury) he has three total receptions. The Kansas City pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, but that standing is on the upturn behind talented young corners. They allow only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Don't let the talking heads alter your decision. Britt is NOT a must-start.  TE Start: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars Lewis has broken through in his fifth NFL season, and it would be apropos for him to finish his masterpiece in style. He's eighth amongst tight ends in receptions with 51, sixth in yardage with 637, second in touchdowns with nine and third in total fantasy points. He's yet to surpass the 70-yard mark in any game this year, but has seven games above 50 yards. He has been the definition of consistent, always finding a way to reward his fantasy owners. He's the made the most of his 75 targets, with at least one 15-yard reception in 13 of 14 weeks and eight 20+ yard plays. The Redskins pass defense is tied for 30th allowing 263 yards per contest. Kellen Winslow hauled in a 41-yard TD pass against them in week 14, and Jason Witten cut them to ribbons last week for ten catches, 140 yards and a score. Start Lewis with comfort. TE Sit: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions In three and 3/4 games with Drew Stanton behind center, Pettigrew has been a non-factor. In week six at the Giants he caught four balls for 46 yards (after Hill went out with injury), and in Stanton's three December starts he has a composite nine receptions for 75 yards. He was targeted nine times in week 13, but has been lost in the shuffle the last two outings. Pettigrew ranks third amongst TE in receptions with 64, but loses much of his luster without Stafford/Hill tossing him the rock. He hasn't crossed the goal line since week nine. Outside of Ben Watson's 10-catch for 100 yards and a TD effort in week 13, the Dolphins have kept opposing tight ends under wraps all season. Seek a more secure option with established QB play. *Latest report is that Shaun Hill (broken finger) took first-team reps on Wednesday. He’ll have to shake off the rust regardless, and does not change this recommendation. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 14, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit, Jon Kitna, Matt Casell, Ryan Torain, Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Kenny Britt, Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Pettigrew, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions  Cutler In The Snow Again? I hope tonight's game means something for you, as my fantasy football season came undone yesterday. I watched in utter horror as benched players outperformed stalwarts like MJD, Peyton Hillis, Reggie Wayne, and others. It all culminated with my worst performances of the season, during the least opportune time. All I'm left to hope for is less than 17 points out of the Chicago defense tonight so that my bride-to-be can advance to the finals, with Joe Webb under center for the Vikings, I'm not optomistic, no offense to Mr. Webb. Tonights game is being played at TCF Stadium on the University of Minnesota campus, players are already complaining about how hard the field is and there is a forecast for snow and 13 degrees. With all that swirling around, this game has a chance at history, not for the actual play, but because of all the outside elements. You have to feel sorry for the Minnesota fans, just think of the roller coaster ride from the last year. They were Moments away from the Super Bowl until they were Favre'd. Then more Favreing over the summer only to have him come back, suck the life out of the team and ultimately leave them with nothing more than Joe Webb. Oh, and their last home game isn't even at home. Really is there any better metaphor for their season than the Metrodome popping like a water balloon? Both teams are fairly stout defensively; the Vikings rank #13 against QB's, #9 against RB's and #20 against WR's in terms of points allowed. While the Bears come in at #3 against QB's, #8 against RB's and #14 against WR's. Add those numbers to the hard, slick field and cold temps and you have a recipe for a 13-10 game. Obviously, if you have him, you are starting Adrian Peterson, with Joe Webb at the helm in poor conditions, expect "All Day" to get the rock as many times as he can handle. I know he's been banged up, but he is the #2 RB for the season and #8 overall in points, you can't sit that. If the Bears were a normal team, you'd expect the same usage for Matt Forte, but Mike Martz likes to throw the ball, so settle in the middle with lots of short passes and screens to Forte and Chester Taylor. Really, aside from Peterson and Forte it is difficult to see any other individual player with much value. Cutler has had his moments this year, but none of his receivers scare you and if you take out his good game against Philly, he's had 12 points or less in 3 of 4 games. In a deep league that allows Joe Webb to count as a QB and WR, maybe you are rolling the dice, but chances are if he is in your lineup your best hope is the consolation bracket championship. Joe Webb's inexperience will trickle down to poor games for Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe. Finally, the only other fantasy worthy option is the Bears defense, sorry Jen, but it is true. We can only hope that the Vikings circle the wagons, decide to protect Joe Webb and rush 60 times. If they go down big early and Webb is chucking it into the snow, she might be joining me in the 3rd place game. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, Monday Night Football, MNF, Week 15, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Metrodome, Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Chris Summers  Ravens vs. Texans Hopefully, this is a meaningful week/game for you. We are in the first week of the playoffs for most leagues and considering the teams in Monday night's games, more than a few first round games will be decided tonight. This is a must win game for both the Texans and Ravens. The Ravens need to win to remain one game back of the Steelers and the Texans have to win to maintain their already slim playoff chances. Both teams are motivated and should provide fantasy goodness for the holiday season. Nobody is kinder to opposing QB's than Houston, no. 29 against WR's, and no. 18 against opposing RB's which isn't TERRIBLE, but take into account that teams can easily throw on them at will... so why run the ball? On the other hand, the Ravens are no. 5 against QB's, no. 6 against RB's and no. 14 against opposing wide receivers. The Texans have an uphill battle facing that defense. This has been an interesting fantasy year for the Texans. Many people thought this would be a breakthrough year for them and after a first week victory over the Colts it looked like that would come to fruition. Unfortunately, they've crumbled since then and their only hope for a title is for Arian Foster to end the year no. 1 in fantasy football. Matt Schaub was taken as a consensus upper-eschelon QB and Andre Johnson was the consensus top receiver – things haven't worked as planned. Matt Schaub is the 12th ranked QB this year, which isn't terrible, but not what you were expecting. Andre Johnson is the 11th ranked WR and doesn't have any multiple touchdowns in any game so far. But all is not lost as Arian Foster is not only the no. 1 fantasy player this year, he is also the no. 1 surprise of the year. Lots of people had Arian as a sleeper, one had to figure the running back of this explosive offense had to be good, but I don't think anyone expected him to be matchup proof; he's had double digit points in every week but one. That being said, you can't bench Andre Johnson and there is no way you are benching Foster, even against a team as good the Ravens. The Ravens are similar to the Texans – they were supposed to be a playoff team (they've lived up to this) and they were supposed to have a number of solid fantasy players. After last year's dominating performance against the Patriots, Ray Rice was a consensus top-five draft pick, but he is the no. 16 ranked RB and clearly a disappointment. Anquan Boldin is another disappointment, everyone thought he'd take the next step after stepping out of Larry Fitzgerald's shadow but that didn't happen. Joe Flacco was picked by most people to make the jump, but he isn't there quite yet as he is the no. 10 QB this year. Luckily for the Ravens, the Texans porous pass defense has proven to be sweet medicine to passing offenses this year, making the perfect chance for Flacco and company to shine. This is the first week of the playoffs, so you are probably starting most of the players mentioned above, but aside from Arian Foster, you aren't feeling great about it. Rest assured though, the Ravens passing attack should be able to live up to the preseason billing tonight. Finally, due to unexpected weather, there is a twin bill of games tonight as the Vikings and Giants will crash the Monday Night Football party. There is still no confirmation about whether or not Brett Favre will play, but Tavaris Jackson looked good last week and seemed to have some good chemistry with Sidney Rice. Here's hoping Adrian Peterson has a lousy game (I'm facing him this week), but I don't really think that will happen. The Giants are also in a must win game after last night's Eagles victory. I have some more bad wishes for Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs, I don't want any injuries but my fantasy team will be much better off if Ahmad Bradshaw is the offensive star. That all being sad, it is tough to call this game because of the weather/travel issues that forced its move. The Giants have far more to play for and the Vikings vaunted "Williams Wall," has been anything but this year. So Giants running game should be strong. The Giants passing attack is anyone's guess. We have no idea what to expect from Steve Smith or Hakeem Nicks as they return from injuries. Throw in the always-iffy-Eli plus some weather issues and it could be a circus. Both games look competitive and have a ton of fantasy players, so hold on tight and hope to see you all in the second round. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Monday Night Football, Week 14, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Eli Manning, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice  WR Start: Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings It didn't take long for Rice to get back in the swing of things. In just his third game back from a serious hip injury, he caught five balls (six targets) for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Even without Harvin by his side, he appeared close to his old "freak of nature" self, beating double-teams with relative ease and overmatching defenders with the ball in the air. Rice saw 14 targets in his first two games with Brett Favre at quarterback, so regardless of who's behind center he'll receive plenty of traffic. The Giants secondary has not looked sharp in recent weeks, frequently looking confused and blowing downfield assignments. The Redskins were unable to make them pay for their transgressions, but the Vikings will. With the rust shaken off, and apparently fully healthy, Rice is set to make a major splash in the final four weeks. WR Sit: Wes Welker, New England Patriots There's no questioning Welker's high level of performance over the past four weeks: 28 receptions for 317 yards and four scores. Nevertheless, don't except a full-blown return to Moss era form. In the three weeks prior he was held under five receptions and below 40 yards in each contest, and he was held out of the end zone between week three and week ten. The Pats don't possess a feared field stretcher (Brandon Tate) to open up the inside for Welker. It hasn't stopped him lately, but makes his job exponentially more difficult. Expect the Chicago pass defense (13th) to get aggressive with him at the line and limit his ability in space, especially in the red zone. The Bears held another excellent slot receiver, Davone Bess, to one reception for nine yards in week 11. Welker is still Tom Brady's number one option (97 targets) but there's a lot of footballs to go around between tight ends and backs in that offense.  QB Start: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears The "gunslinger" has performed brilliantly the last two weeks posting QB ratings of 146.2 and 117.0. While Cutler's pass attempts are on the decline, his decision-making has improved without hindering his calling card playmaking ability. Since the Bears week eight bye he's tossed ten touchdowns against just three interceptions (5:0 last two weeks). Entering week 14 of last season he had already gifted 20 interceptions, double his current total of ten. Wide receiver Earl Bennett has emerged as Cutler's security blanket, a dependable possession receiver to balance out Chicago's deep threats. The efficiency of their running attack has also opened up opportunities in the play action passing game and taken pressure off Cutler. New England's 31st ranked pass defense is tailor made for the Bears style – they don't pressure the quarterback (21 sacks) and allow 67 percent completions. QB Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills His random four-touchdown performances haven't made a believer out of me. Yes, Fitzpatrick has a thrown at least one TD pass in every start this season, but overall production has regressed sharply. Fitzpatrick's thrown an interception in six of his last seven games, including three games of two picks (fumbled three times last week, lost two). His big plays are often the result of scrambling and buying time and not within the Bills' offense. Obviously consistency will never be a strength in this freelance structure. On the season Fitzpatrick averages just 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and his completion percentage of 58.3 ranks 26th in the league. The Browns rank 20th against the pass, but are second in the NFL with 18 interceptions. They bottled up Chad Henne last week forcing a 37.8 QB rating and ballhawking for three picks. There will be no air explosion for "Mr. Harvard" this week.  RB Start: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Concerns over his recent struggles in short yardage and goal line situations have surfaced, but he remains a MUST start in week 14. Since taking over the primary ball carrying duties in week seven, Blount has rushed for 100 yards+ twice, 80 yards+ four times and hit paydirt four times. He's coming off a 20-carry 103 yard outing against Atlanta's eighth ranked defense, and looked like a man amongst boys for much of the game. This week's opponents, the Redskins, were thoroughly gashed by the Giants to the tune of 197 yards and four rushing scores last week. Brandon Jacobs broke runs of 39, 28 and compiled 13 yards per carry. Blount brings a similar power style to the table, only with a lower center of gravity and more speed. If the 'Skins bring the same poor tackling effort on Sunday, they will get run through and run over. RB Sit: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks Lynch scored three touchdowns against Carolina's 27th ranked run defense last week, but don't get too excited. Gashing the Panthers on the ground has become commonplace. Two of his scores came on 1-yard runs, and four of his five touchdowns on the year have now come from a yard out. Between weeks eight and twelve he ran for 147 yards (29 per game) on 40 carries (8 per game) with a single TD. In eight games since joining Seattle he's received under ten carries on three occasions, and been held under 50 yards six times. Explosive runs have been few and far between, with a measly three runs above 20 yards in 146 attempts. Season best effort aside, scat back Justin Forsett will still eat away at his workload going forward. The San Francisco run defense has limited opponents to 3.6 yards per rush and only seven ground scores. Don't hold your breath for a double dose of Marshawn magic.  TE Start: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders Miller has been utterly invisible since his week eight injury. Unbelievably, he hasn't recorded double-digit yardage in four games since, totaling five receptions for 28 yards. The Raiders all but abandoned the passing game last week as he saw only one target. If they utilize the same tact against Jacksonville this week, they'll be making a massive judgment error. The Jags rank 27th against the pass and have allowed over 3,000 yards through the air (22 touchdowns). Despite his abysmal efforts of late, it's difficult to sit a tight end with Miller's big play potential. He caught a pass of 20+ yards in six of the first seven weeks, and you simply won't find many TE's capable of that. He has a great opportunity to revisit those glory days this week, if his coordinator allows it. TE Sit: Joel Dreessen, Houston Texans It was originally believed that Dreessen could miss week 14, but his rib cage injury is just a bruise. He saw a significant eight targets and caught five balls for 63 yards at Philadelphia Thursday night, and hit paydirt in each of the prior two weeks (including a 100-yard game). However, his usage for Sunday is very much in question. Owen Daniels is set to return, and while he's been entirely ineffective, he will surely take snaps away from Dreessen (and possibly start). The Ravens have eliminated the tight end since their week eight bye: Anthony Fasano 3/26, Tony Gonzalez 4/38, Kellen Winslow 4/44 TD and Heath Miller 1/9. He's given his owners a nice fantasy run, but avoid this likely time-split situation. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 14, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit, Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills, LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks, Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings, Wes Welker, New England Patriots, Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders, Joel Dreessen, Houston Texans  Nothing more needs to be said. In a crazy NFL season, we finally have a game that is everything it was supposed to be. Tonight is the culmination of a series of events that began last season during the Jets playoff run. It built steam with hard knocks, reached an epic level with Rex Ryan comparing his wife to Tom Brady's and will hopefully climax with a classic Monday night battle between the team of the 2000's and the presumptive team of the 2010's. The first game between these two felt a little bumpy. Both teams were trying to figure things out, but tonight the Jets and Patriots are riding four and three game winning streaks, respectively, so no excuses this time. The Pats offense has been rolling with over 30 points in four straight games. Brady hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6, and during that span he has 13 TDs. He is at the the pinnacle of his craft with a passer rating of 117 in three straight games and is the sixth ranked fantasy QB for the season. All this with Deion Branch as his top receiver—this might just be his finest season yet. The vaunted Jets passing defense won't do much to slow down Brady, as the Pats are middle of the road in points allowed to QB's and WR's. The Pats running game is normally "like a box of chocolates," but tonight, against the No. 1 ranked rush defense we know EXACTLY what we are going to get—zero. Although, here's hoping "Hard Knocks" folk hero Danny Woodhead sticks it to his former team. The Jets have won three in a row, but many were very close affairs and ended on long bombs from Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes. You could see a few more of these hook-ups in tonight's game; over the last three games, Santonio Holmes has earned the No. 1 receiver spot as he's scored four touchdowns over that span. It's unlikely that the Patriots, 29th in points allowed to QB's and 27th to WR's, will pose much of a challenge to the Jets passing attack, so we might even see Dustin Keller regain his early season form. At the start of this year, Shonn Greene was a trendy pick for a breakout player. What was there not to like? He had a great run in the playoffs, a great offensive line and new WR weapons to take the pressure off of him. What could go wrong? Oh yeah, the hall of famer with a chip on his shoulder. LaDainian Tomlinson burst from the gate and took control of the running game, leaving Greene owners with a gaping hole on their roster. Fear not, Greene owners, a look at the touches over the last four games shows things trending Greene's way. Unfortunately, neither LT nor Greene is putting up huge fantasy numbers over that time span. But this might just be what the fantasy doctor ordered: the Patriots are 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Jets put up 136 rushing yards in the first game and the Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break scheme, so there are plenty of points to be racked up during the "bend." The Patriots give up yards, points and most importantly, fantasy points. The Jets have been surprisingly generous to opposing teams' passing games, but you can't run on them, so don't even try (sorry Green-Ellis owners). These teams don't really like each other, so I'd expect some chippiness to go along with the scoring. As for the result, late in the season, at home, on Monday night with the division on the line and a hot QB leading the way, it's impossible to bet against the Patriots. Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Monday Night Football, Week 13, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez  The New Dance Craze - Do the Obomanu! So you’re sitting on your couch Sunday and you think to yourself, “How is it that Ben Obomanu scored more points this week than pretty much every receiver in the league not named Dwayne Bowe or Deion Branch?” Looking back on the entire season, you could insert plenty of other names in that sentence…Seyi Ajirotutu, Keiland Williams, Steve Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and so on. Some of these sleepers are one-hit wonders. Some go one to provide steady points for the rest of the season. Either way, every week there’s that random player that few teams own that puts up big numbers. In this column, we choose one player that falls into that “Gold Mine” category and we highlight his background. Basically, we try to answer the question, “Where the heck did that guy come from?” This isn’t a waiver wire recommendation. Consider it a short biography on a random player tagged with a rest-of-the-season performance projection. Ben Obomanu, WR, Seattle Seahawks, 159 yards, 1 TD Obomanu lettered in football and basketball at Selma High School in Selma, Alabama. He was valedictorian of his class. Selma, as you remember, was an active city in the United States Civil Rights movement in the 1960’s. While the small Alabama city sowed some significant seeds in the fight for racial equality, it’s harvest of professional athletes isn’t so plentiful. Obomanu shares the “most-famous-athlete-from-Selma” podium with United States Women’s Soccer legend Mia Hamm. Obo finished high school in 2002 as a Parade All-American. He joined Bears receiver Devin Aromashodu and Raiders quarterback at Auburn University. The Selma native entered the 2006 NFL Draft with a 4.45 40-yard dash time at the Combine, putting him .10 seconds ahead of Brandon Marshall and .10 seconds behind Aromashodu. Oba went in the seventh round of the draft, along with Aromashodu and safety-turned-punching-bag Cortland Finnegan. Projections: Obomanu is flourishing in the absence of Mike Williams, Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite receiver up until a foot injury sidelined him last week. Williams’ status for this week’s game against Kansas City. If Williams returns to the lineup, don’t expect much from Obamanu. If he stays out for more than another week, Obomanu may be a good flex play. He’s caught five passes and scored a touchdown in each of his last two games. Obomanu is currently available in 96% of Y! leagues. Written by James Duren, exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Do you think Ben Obomanu is worth the pickup? Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix, or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Football Gold, Week 13, Week Thirteen, Ben Obomanu, Seattle Seahawks, Mike Williams  QB Start: Matt Schaub, Houston Texans After failure to live up to the pre-season hype, Schaub has been forgotten in many fantasy circles. This could prove costly. In his last three starts he's completed 66 percent of his passes, thrown five touchdowns against zero interceptions, averaged just shy of 250-yards and working to a 104.8 QB rating. He was unable to connect on big plays against the "keep everything in front of you" Titans last week, but hit four 20+ pass plays at the Jets in week 11 and three at Jacksonville in week 12. The emergence of TE Joel Dreessen has softened the blow of an underachieving group of secondary receivers. Philadelphia's pass defense has allowed nine scores and forced eight picks since their week-nine bye. One way or the other, a meaningful play is being made. Houston's offensive line has done a better job protecting Schaub in recent weeks (3 sacks in last three games) but will be in for a stern test against the Eagles (30 sacks). *Eagles CB Asante Samuels is listed as questionable on the initial Wednesday injury report. QB Sit: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars Garrard has declared his wrist "good to go" for week 13, but I'm not comforted. The last month has been an up and down roller coaster ride for Garrard. Six touchdowns against zero interceptions the first two weeks, and two touchdowns four interceptions the last two. His QB ratings dropped from 157.8 and 134.1 to 65.1 and 57.1. The latter two performances are closer to his median level. With Mike Sims-Walker not fully healthy, or at least not himself, the Jaguars lack of downfield weapons is all too apparent. Relying on your tight end for big plays is not a successful endeavor long term. Garrard averaged just 4.6 yards per pass attempt last week at the Giants. He also fumbled three times, losing one (the game ender), and has now lost three fumbles in the last four weeks. Quite simply, he's not being protected, and his past history against Tennessee is not aesthetically pleasing: 14 career starts, 11 touchdowns, 12 picks and 33 sacks. It's a safe bet Garrard will have to utilize his legs with high frequency once again, running for his life rather than by choice.  RB Start: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears The Bears finished November with a 52.9 percent run ratio, good for second in the NFL (Rotoworld.com). In those four games, Forte's ground productivity spiked dramatically rushing for 332 yards on 74 carries (4.5). He's still having difficulty finding the end zone, but he's chewing up big chunks of yardage for a change. After having only one 20+ yard run in the season's opening seven weeks, he had four in November including two last week (61, 28). His PPR value has gone way down, but let's flashback to opening Sunday versus Detroit: seven receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps this is the week to reintroduce him to the passing attack? Success on the ground is expected against a Lions rush defense that ranks 24th and has allowed 13 rushing scores (third to last). Finally getting an opportunity to spread his wings with regular work, Forte is thriving in a more balanced Chicago offense. RB Sit: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets What do you know; the old LT wasn't really 'back' after all. Since the Jets week seven bye, his greatest impact has come in the passing game, catching 26 balls for 222 yards. In the rush game, however, Tomlinson has been completely shut down and his workload is gradually decreasing. He hasn't cracked the 100-yard plateau since week four or the 60-yard mark since week five (high of 3.8 per carry). In the last five weeks his longest run from scrimmage has been a whopping ten yards. That is scary. Even scarier for his fantasy owners is the 53:43 carry split, now in favor of Shonn Greene. LT for rushed for 76 yards on nearly seven per rush in week two versus New England, but the Jets philosophy has undergone minor reconstruction since then, putting more trust in their quarterback. The Patriots rank smack in the middle of the pack against the run allowing 110 yards per game. In a non-PPR league, Tomlinson's value is extremely limited.  WR Start: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins With only five plays of 20+ yards and three 100-yard games in 2010, Moss is no longer the electric downfield threat he once was. With that said, he's a first down machine and reliable possession receiver, and is on pace to decimate his previous career high in receptions. He has 62 catches on the year (8th) and has hauled in at least five passes in nine of 11 games. His 94 targets also rank in the top 15. December has been his most productive month statistically, with 150 receptions and 14 touchdowns as winter rolls in. Although held quiet the last two seasons, he's had tremendous career success against the Giants with eight scores in 11 games. New York boasts the number one pass defense in the league, but played too conservative last week. They allowed Jacksonville to convert ten third-downs, most through the air in short and manageable situations. If they come out with a similar game plan this week, Moss should be in for a heavy traffic day in the short/intermediate routes. WR Sit: Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals Ochocinco stills ranks seventh in the league with 103 targets, but he's come down with the reception on only 52 percent of passes thrown his way. Of his 54 receptions, 22 of them came in a two-game window, which also happen to be his only two 100-yard receiving games on the season. The ugly numbers are beginning to pile up i.e. seven games below 50 yards, eight games below five receptions and only four catches of 20+. The Bengals pass offense hasn't been dreadful (11th), but Ochocinco's contributions to the cause have been far from consistent. The New Orleans secondary has become a legitimate wide receiver killer. Their corners are playing at a freakishly high level, holding opponents to seven air scores and 198 yards per game. Ochocinco will turn 33-years of age in January, so it's not unrealistic to believe the tail end of his career is approaching.  TE Start: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles Signs of life from Brent Celek have been few and far between, but last week was encouraging. After catching a bagel against the Giants in week 11, Celek rebounded to haul in three balls for 50 yards and a touchdown at Chicago. More importantly, he was targeted eight times by Michael Vick, including a few downfield shots. Houston's 31st ranked pass defense has allowed 25 touchdowns (NFL worst), which certainly doesn't hurt his cause for start consideration. Nevertheless, this recommendation does not come without its caveats. Celek has posted four games below ten yards and is amongst the leaders in dropped passes. Potential for high reward is there, but a clunker is not out of the realm. TE Sit: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens Heap has quietly been one of the hottest tight ends around. After taking a 65-yard pass to the house last week, Heap now has five touchdowns in the last six weeks. His performance, however, has been considerably above his proven standard. He's been making big plays left and right, as his 15-yard per reception average is dwarfing his 11.7 career mark. Expecting this pace to continue is unreasonable, and he doesn't get enough targets (59) to make up the fantasy points elsewhere. His season high for game yardage is 79, and high for receptions is six (week one). Outside of what would have to be considered a fluke performance by Rob Gronkowski, the Steelers have bottled up opposing TE's. A tough sit given his current level, but the cooling process begins in week 13. Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 13, Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, Joel Dreessen, David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars, Mike Sims-Walker, Matt Forte, Chicago Bears, LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Washington Redskins, Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals, Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles, Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens, Rob Gronkowski  Tonight is truly a historic match-up. Two teams battling for the first overall pick AND to only be one game out of the division lead after 11 games. The people at ESPN must be going apoplectic trying to sell advertising revenue. Things being what they are, the winner of this game will have the sterling record of 4-7 and be a mere one game behind Seattle and Saint Louis. Quick aside, where does Sam Bradford's season rank amongst the great rookie QBs? Peyton Manning and Dan Marino were both brilliant—if Bradford continues at this pace, doesn't he have to rank with them? His best receiver is Danny Amendola, no offense to Danny, but he wasn't even the first pick in his family's annual Turkey day game (ok, I made that up). Can you tell I'm trying to waste time and not talk about tonight's game? Let's be honest, neither team is very good, and that's coming from a life-long Niner fan, but facts are facts. The Niners have played better recently, winning three of five. Had they been more adept at closing out games they'd be in first place. Troy Smith has looked mostly adequate and sometimes spectacular. This up and down is all too common with Niner QB's named "Smith." Frank Gore has been solid all year despite the incredibly unimaginative play calling. At least five times a game they will run him right up the middle where he'll be stopped cold; at least twice a game they'll follow up that play with the exact same play and encounter the exact same result. So basically, the personification of the definition of insanity. The Niners' receiving targets are a pure gamble because the QB and play calling prevents them from reaching full potential. That being said, the Cardinals are middle of the road in points allowed to opposing QB's and WR's, so you have a puncher's chance. Do you think the Cardinals regret letting Matt Leinart go? Max Hall is not ready for prime time (hard to imagine considering he's an undrafted 25-year-old rookie) and Derek Anderson is somehow still dining out on a ten game stretch from 2007. Look, Leinart is not great, but he showed flashes as a rookie and since then, has never really been given a clear shot to start; why not give him a season? Honestly, was he any worse than what they've trotted out there each week? The QB's merry-go-round has destroyed the value of possibly the best receiver in the game, Larry Fitzgerald and has hampered a once decent running attack. As a Niner fan, I'll pick them to win on the road, but I don't feel good about it. Either way, tonight's fan bases will either be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes or in the hunt for the division crown. Are you ready for some football? Written by Chris Summers exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Week 12, NFL, Monday NIght Football, Chris Summers, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Frank Gore, Sam Bradford, Larry Fitzgerald | CategoriesAll  |
RSS Feed