 Matthew Stafford (credits below) YOU ARE THE CHAMPION! But what do you do to repeat next season?
You’re season is over, or at the very least has one more week left. For the majority of leagues a champion has already been crowned. And if you read this column for the second half of the season, and followed the players listed here you probably won, I know I did. But the hard part isn’t over just yet, there is still next season you need to worry about. And while you may be scratching your head trying to figure out why I would be worrying about next season when technically this season isn’t over yet, it’s for good reason. Just like the NFL, as an entirety repeating championships isn’t an easy task to complete. Players get hurt, they get traded, new teams sign them and things can completely go awry, So going into next season here is my list of guys rising up the charts, and those falling to the bottom.
RISE:
Cam Newton (CAR, 3) has SHATTERED some NFL records let alone rookie records. Before the season even began NO ONE knew what was about to happen as for the most part Cam went undrafted. Following his first week performance when he came out and outplayed most veteran QBs he was snatched up faster then fallen money at a strip club. Next season we may see a drop off in rushing TDs, but when you score 14 rushing TDs one season the drop off would still be well worth a top QB pick. He only gets better as he goes and with a full off season for him to work out just imagine what he will be capable of going forward.
Matthew Stafford (DET, 5) finally stayed healthy, and has brought his Lions to the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade because of it. Many fantasy prognosticators believed that if healthy Stafford would be a monster, and they were absolutely right. Stafford threw for multiple TDs in every game except for two, including 6 games with 3 or more touchdowns. Combined with his great TD statistics Stafford also threw for more than 240 yards 12 times this season resulting in him finishing as a top 5 QB in the NFL.
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC, 4) proved that his injury is something of the past. The beginning of the season he was a yard-gaining monster, running for no less than 85 yards through the first 7 weeks of the season, and he only ran for less than 85 yards once all season. The problem was his inability to get in the end zone, and that had a lot to do with the Jaguars anemic offense. As the season went on MJD was able to find the end zone more frequently scoring 5 times on the ground in the last 7 games with three more through the air. If Jones-Drew can keep up the pace scoring more often than he was he will be back to a top 5 draft pick in 2012.
If you’re a Jets fan you will think I am absolutely out of my mind, but Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 10) put together a pretty good fantasy season. With double-digit touchdowns in 8 weeks so far this season, and 6 games of more than 230 yards passing puts him in the top 10 of fantasy QBs this season. His turnover numbers were high, and he had more under 230-yard games then he had over, but if he can grow on those numbers next season and become more consistent in the passing game Sanchez could find himself rising up the charts even more in 2012.
Not only was Rob Gronkowski (NE, 1) the best overall tight end this season, but also the 2nd best wide receiver to Calvin Johnson (DET, 1) and not by much. Gronkowski finished 16th among all fantasy point getters, ahead of some quarterbacks including Michael Vick (PHI, 11) and topnotch running backs like Adrian Peterson (MIN, 6). Rob caught at least 5 passes in 9 games this season and surpassed 70 yards receiving 9 times as well. Gronkowski blew people away with his record setting touchdown grabs breaking the record for the most touchdowns by a tight end in a season and that was done in a season where in 6 games he had zero scores. The Gronkman is going to warrant a very high draft pick next season and I could see him being the highest drafted tight end in fantasy sports history.
Marshawn Lynch (SEA, 5) proved me wrong, and showed that matchups mean nothing to him. Going into the final playoff weeks of the season Lynch had the toughest schedule for opposing running backs going up against strong run defenses such as the Bears and the best of the best 49ers. Not only did Lynch prove me wrong but he recorded 100 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games, scored 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games and was the only running back to gain 100 yards and the only running back to score on the vaunted 49er defense. Lynch seems to be back to his early career form and that should be represented with a high draft pick next season.
FALL:
Josh Freeman (TB, 18) was a highly touted sleeper candidate for quarterbacks in 2011, but man did he disappoint. Freeman was outscored by Tim Tebow (DEN, 14), Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 13), and Alex Smith (SF, 17) and only had two double-digit touchdown performances all season long. For the most part Freeman had the yards completing more than 240 yards passing 7 times this season, but his inability to find the end zone not only hurt him, but the playmakers around him.
Mike Williams (TB, 49) was one of those playmakers around Freeman that struggled big time in 2011. Williams came off an amazing rookie season scoring more than 10 times, but this year was a major difference with only 3 scores. It wasn’t just the number of touchdowns, or lack thereof that was the problem but his inability to gain yards that caused most of the problems. Williams had 11 games where he caught 4 or more passes, but had 8 games of 50 of fewer receiving yards and 4 of those games under 40 yards. If Williams plans on getting drafted next season he better pick it up big time in the off season.
Probably the biggest flop of the season was Chris Johnson (TEN, 17). Formerly known as CJ2k only had 5 games of more than 60 yards and only found the end zone 4 times on the ground. No one knows if it was the signing of his contract, or the hold out that slowed him down, but everyone waited for him to break out and the consistency just never came. His back to back 150+ yard games a few weeks ago were extremely promising, his 3 straight under 60 yard performances to follow sent him right back to the cellar where he belongs. CJ0K is not worth drafting in 2012.
Speaking of flopping first round draft picks, Rashard Mendenhall (PIT, 18) actually played worse than Chris Johnson. Mendenhall matched CJ’s 5 games of more than 60 yards rushing, and scored more touchdowns than Johnson did, but with only two 100-yard rushing games Mendenhall found him in the flex spot realm more often than not. Until Mendenhall can show that he consistently can get it done on the ground keep him off your draft boards entirely.
Another struggling halfback goes to Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG, 22) who was drafted among the top running backs in the league to start the season and finished outside of RB2 honors in the end. Missing 4 games in a row can easily do that to a player, but injury isn’t the reason why Bradshaw found himself falling as far as he did. With only one 100-yard game and only one other game over 60 yards rushing Bradshaw just didn’t get it done for your fantasy team. He couldn’t find the end zone consistently either. He did score 8 times on the ground this season, but with 3 in one game, and 3 in the last two weeks Bradshaw found himself with more goose eggs than not. Bradshaw just like Mendenhall, and Johnson have the talent of top tier halfbacks, but until he can prove that he can be there with fluidity he should be skipped on draft day.
Despite Mark Sanchez reaching top 10 numbers for fantasy QBs, his wide receivers weren’t all that consistent in their own rankings this year. Santonio Holmes (NYJ, 27) and Plaxico Burress (NYJ, 34) combined for only 205 fantasy points and never were able to put things together on a week-to-week basis. Burress and Holmes were able to combine for 16 receiving touchdowns which normally would be an amazing total however they only combined for 6 games of more than 60 yard performances and no games of 100 yards which brought their values down greatly. In 2012, flex spots for either wide receiver should be market value, reaching on either of these athletes would be a major mistake.
Congratulations on winning your leagues, and if you didn’t or came up short there is always next year (just ask the New York Mets, haha). Your seasons may be over, but the job is not done. Many of you are playing in keeper leagues, which will need to be worked out over the next 8 months until draft day. Knowing where these guys rank now and going forward will be a helpful tool going forward. Please look for my "I was right, I was wrong" column next week, as I break down the players who I was right about rising, and those who I was wrong about.
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
All Stats are up to date as of Week 16 games, and follow NON PPR Standard leagues unless otherwise stated
As always you can find me on twitter from 10am – 12pm every Sunday answering your start / sit questions.
Check out my Baseball PeckinOrder coming to you in the middle of January.
 DeMarco Murray (credits below) Highlight: With one playoff week in the books, your fight isn’t over just yet, and you will need to make the right moves to complete your task at hand.
One playoff week is now in the books. Another week filled with major injuries to top-flight players like DeMarco Murray (DAL, 22) and Greg Jennings (GB, 8). This may have cost you your chance at winning it all, but if you were one of the lucky ones to survive the first week of the playoffs then congrats, but the job isn’t over just yet.
I got lucky this week, in my big money league which is a 16-team league we play two week per round playoffs. My team that went 10 – 3 in the regular season and had the most points scored, decided it would be fun to underperform this week allowing my opponent to win week one by 3 points. But because I have another week to regain those three points, I am looking to the waiver wire to help me win my league, and so should you.
Rise:
As mentioned above, DeMarco Murray went down early in the first quarter with a terribly fractured ankle that will cost him his season. In steps Felix Jones (DAL, 48) who started the year as the starting running back for America’s Team, but due to injury and lack luster play lost his spot mid way through. Felix has always had talent, always capable of the big play but never really showed it. In week 14, once given an opportunity to carry the ball he truly showed why he was the guy in the waiting all these years. After entering the game in the first quarter, Felix went on to collect 16 carries breaking the 100-yard mark for the first time since week 3. He wasn’t able to reach the end zone, because Tony Romo (DAL, 7) was flinging the ball all over the place, but he did collect 6 catches for 31 yards and in a PPR that gives him 19 fantasy points which should be enough to help you win your games. Going forward Jones will be facing the Bucs, Eagles and Giants to finish off the season, a trio of teams averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Felix can get in the end zone he will be a great play the rest of the way.
Jake Locker (TEN, 40) has had two true opportunities behind center so far this season, and in both he has shined to amazing numbers. In week 11, Locker threw for 140 yards and two passing touchdowns in limited time after Matt Hasselbeck (TEN, 21) went down with an arm injury. This past week, Locker shined again throwing for nearly 300 yards, throwing for one score, and rushing for 36 yards and another score on the ground. Hasselbeck went down with a calf injury and there is a major speculation as to whether he will be good to go or not in week 15. If that’s the case, get Locker off waivers, and play him right away. Lockers remaining schedule isn’t the best, as the Titans face the 9th toughest schedule for fantasy QBs the rest of the way. But, his week 15 game is against the Colts, a team giving up more than 18 points per game to opposing QBs a number that seems to fit with Lockers ability. The Colts, can’t stop the run, and barely stop the pass, with Lockers double threat of his arm and his legs he should be a monster on game day.
Speaking of rookie quarterbacks playing in the AFC South, when did Blaine Gabbert (JAC, 29) become an NFL style QB? Blaine, has thrown for more than 200 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, a feat he only accomplished once in his previous 9. And in the last two games he has thrown two touchdowns each, something he hadn’t done all season long. Going forward Gabbert has a pretty decent schedule for QBs, with games against Atlanta, Tennessee, and Indianapolis three teams all giving up more than 16.5 points per game to QBs. I am not saying that Gabbert is a must start, but if you are playing in a pretty deep league, or keeper, you might want to stash him away for next season. He is showing a lot of improvement and could be a top notch QB in 2012.
Dwayne Bowe (KC, 19) can’t find the end zone, and with good reason. The quarterback situation in Kansas City isn’t the greatest to look at. There have been three different starting quarterbacks under center this season and none of them have really been able to get Bowe to the promise land. However, in PPR leagues Bowe has been pretty solid. In 4 of Bowe’s last 6 games he has reeled in at least 6 catches for more than 65 yards good for at least 12 fantasy points in each of those 4. With a remaining schedule that ranks 2nd easiest for fantasy WRs, including games against Green Bay, Oakland, and Denver a group giving up more than 23 points per game against opposing WRs, look for Bowe to continue on his PPR pace, and if he can get into the end zone more frequently he could be an extremely solid WR 1 the rest of the way.
Fall:
DeSean Jackson (PHI, 30) has been an absolute head case all season long. And if you were one of the fantasy owners to waste one of your first 5 draft picks on him you are probably cursing him out. Jackson has been either clearly distracted with the contract negotiations or lack thereof, or he is so disgruntled that he just doesn’t care. Either way, it isn’t helping the Eagles, and I am sure it isn’t helping you fantasy teams. Jackson finally found the end zone in week 14, his first since week 5 but was only capable of reeling in 4 catches for 59 yards, good for only 11 fantasy points. While some may take that as good news as it is also his first double-digit fantasy production since week 5, his remaining schedule is absolutely brutal for WRs. With the 2nd toughest schedule for fantasy wide outs, Jackson will face Revis Island in week 15, and then finish up the season against Dallas and Washington, two divisional opponents that usually play the Eagles pretty tough. If you are desperate use Djax as a flex option, but to be honest he should be on most benches collecting splinters at this point.
The Baltimore Ravens are in position to win the AFC North crown, but it won’t be a cakewalk. With a pretty tough schedule the Ravens will be facing the Chargers who are surging, and pretty good defenses in Cincinnati and Cleveland, division rivals who normally hang tough against the Ravens. This is bad news for Joe Flacco (BAL, 16) and Anquan Boldin (BAL, 26). For fantasy QBs, Flacco is going up against the 7th toughest schedule, and for fantasy WRs, Boldin is going up against the 4th toughest. Boldin hasn’t been himself this year with only three touchdowns on the season and only two games of more than 100 yards, and his PPR totals haven’t been that good either as in his last 5 games he has recorded 4 receptions or less in 4 of them. With the tough matchups he has coming, Boldin drops to a back end WR2, flex option that could hurt your chances of winning it all. Besides the Chargers who are giving up 18 points per game to opposing QBs which will favor Flacco, his week 16 and 17 games will be tough as neither the Bengals or the Browns are giving up more than 15 fantasy points to QBs.
It truly pains me to say this, as I have Ryan Mathews (SD, 10), in multiple leagues that are still fighting for the championship, but it is time to keep a close eye on the situation in San Diego. With a remaining schedule that ranks as the 10th toughest for fantasy running backs, Mathews and even Mike Tolbert (SD, 22) owners should be worried. It has been known all season long that Tolbert and Mathews would be splitting carries, and for the most part they have done this to great success. Tolbert has recorded 6 rushing touchdowns on the year so far, and in PPR leagues has been a monster recording at least 3 receptions in every game but 4 so far. Mathews on the other hand has produced 8 double-digit fantasy outputs this year scoring 4 times on the ground and catching at least 3 receptions in 9 of his contests so far. Going forward this running back duo faces off with the Ravens, Lions, and Raiders teams who are giving up fewer than 21 points per game to opposing running backs. Because these two are in a heated committee those numbers get split in half, and we wont be able to predict which one will come out on top.
You can follow me on Twitter @PeckinTheFix
As always I will be available from 10am – 12pm on Sunday answering your start / sit questions on twitter.
All stats are through week 14 games, and are based off of NON-PPR numbers unless otherwise stated.
(November 5, 2011 - Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America)
 Dez Bryant (credits below) Highlight: You’ve made it. The playoffs are finally here and you have survived. But now you’ll need to keep surviving if you want to get to the other side of the rainbow.
And then there were 4, 6, or 8. In most standard leagues (12 team to be exact) only 4 to 6 players enter in the final playoff rounds. Some leagues have some crazy settings, like 2 weeks per round and bye weeks for the top two players in your league. But in the end there is only one goal that everyone in the playoffs looks to achieve.
You’ll still need to stay on top of all the happenings even if you have a bye, or not in the playoffs and you are going to want to gear up for next season. With a few more major injuries to top-flight guys like Andre Johnson and Matt Forte some teams championship hopes may be dwindling before they began. So who do you play in their place? These players on the rise might surprise you more so then not.
For those of you who failed to reach the playoffs this is the perfect time begin the evaluation of your teams going forward. Continuing to look at next years draft, or who you are going to keep if in a keeper or dynasty league can be just as important as having to make the right lineup decisions for the playoff matchups.
Rise:
Brent Celek (PHI, 19) has really picked it up over the last few weeks. Sure his week 13 performance wasn’t that great, the Eagles were down nearly the entire game, and with the clock quickly diminishing the ball needed to be aired out deeper down the field. Despite only having four targets in week 13, Celek has collected at least 4 receptions in each of his last 6 games. Of those six games only two of them did he bring in less than 60 yards receiving, and he also reached the end zone twice during that span. As Tight Ends go, Celek is getting the looks, with Vick back this week, and Fred Davis (WSH, 5) being suspended for the rest of the season take a look at Celek for the playoff push. Philly has the 9th easiest schedule for tight ends still to come, including games against the Dolphins, Jets, and Cowboys, three teams who give up more than 8 points per game to opposing tight ends.
Dez Bryant (DAL, 15) has been inconsistent at best so far in his sophomore season in the NFL. Tony Romo (DAL, 7) has several weapons at his disposal including Laurent Robinson (DAL, 19) who I mentioned a few weeks ago, who has been his go to guy since Miles Austin (DAL, 49) went down with his second hamstring injury this season. Although the season has been a bit of a disappointment so far for owners of Bryant, he has scored a touchdown in three of the last 4 weeks, while also securing at least 60 yards receiving in that same span. Going forward Dez Bryant and the rest of the Cowboys wide receiver core face the 5th easiest schedule for wide outs in football. The three remaining opponents the Cowboys face are all giving up more than 20 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the Cowboys face the Giants twice.
Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 11) started the season off with a bang producing two 300-yard games, and 4 multiple touchdown performances in the first 5 weeks of the season. Since then he has slightly slowed down, only breaking the 300-yard mark once since week three and only two multiple touchdown performances since week 5. However, over the last 4 weeks Sanchez has recorded double-digit fantasy points in 3 of those games, and threw for 4 touchdowns in week 12. Going forward Sanchez has a pretty favorable slate of matchups with games against the Giants, Eagles, Dolphins, and Chiefs good for the 10th easiest remaining schedule for quarterbacks in the National Football League. Sanchez is playing like a high end QB2, but with injuries to QB1’s like Matt Schaub (HOU, 15), Matt Cassel (KC, 27), Josh Freeman (TB, 19), and Jay Cutler (CHI, 22), Sanchez can step in for the playoffs nicely.
Percy Harvin (MIN, 11) loves the absence of Adrian Peterson (MIN, 5). Since All day Adrian Peterson went down with a high ankle sprain, Harvin has reeled in a total of 16 passes for nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. In that span, Harvin is also getting the ball on the ground, and while he isn’t doing much with his opportunities to carry the ball (10 carries for 30 yards) he at least is getting the touches. If Harvin can continue to break the double-digit touches category for the Vikings his explosive numbers should continue. Harvin doesn’t have the most favorable set of games left in 2011 with the 11th toughest schedule for wide receivers, but as long as Peterson is out, Harvin will be the beneficiary as the main playmaker still left on the field.
Fall:
Matt Forte (CHI, 7) went down this past week with a sprain to the MCL, and we may get to see him again just before the regular season in the NFL comes to an end. In the interim current backup to Forte, Marion Barber (CHI, 40) will take over the starting duties for the ball club. Starting in week 4 Barber began a stretch of 5 rushing touchdowns in the next seven games, although he failed to pass the 50-yard mark during that same span. Barber may be the one getting the ball, but he has been proven not to be able to handle the full workload. Insteps Kahlil Bell (CHI, 105) who following Forte’s injury ran the ball four times for 34 yards, 10 yards shy of what Barber did with 10 more carries. The remaining schedule for the Bears isn’t very favorable for running backs as they have the 10th toughest schedule for that position. Knowing the Bears also have the 3rd easiest schedule for quarterbacks and 2nd easiest for wide outs, the Bears will probably look more to the air than the ground, which will hurt the value of any Bear in the backfield, including Forte when he returns.
Beanie Wells (ARI, 10) saw a spike in fantasy production two weeks ago when he ran for more than 200-yards vs. the Rams in week 12. He followed up with a 67-yard performance in week 13 against the Cowboys a significantly tougher opponent against the run. Surprisingly Wells has been able to put together two consecutive games of 20 or more carries something he hasn’t done since weeks 4 and 5 earlier this season. Wells major downfall is his ability to stay on the field and to be healthy. His second major downfall is his schedule, with games still to come against the 49ers who have yet to give up a rushing touchdown or more than 100 yards on the ground in a single game so far this year, Cleveland, Seattle, and Cincinnati round out the rest of his 2011 schedule, the 7th toughest schedule for running backs. Not only will his health be in question but also his production.
Hakeem Nicks (NYG, 11) found the end zone in week 13 twice and for only the 2nd time since week 5. Victor Cruz (NYG, 3) has stepped in as Eli Manning’s (NYG, 6) favorite target which has significantly downgraded Nicks value. Although he has failed to reach the end zone regularly, in most weeks he has been PPR gold bringing in at least 6 passes five times this season. Nicks is on my list of players falling because of the inconsistency we are getting from the former North Carolina receiver, and his remaining schedule. There are only two teams with a tougher schedule for wide receivers in the NFL, which will not help Nicks or any other Giant pass catcher the rest of the way. With the playoffs starting this week, I would absolutely begin to play the matchups with Nicks who could hurt your chances of winning if played in the wrong situation.
Andre Johnson (HOU, 54) hurt himself again, this time his left hamstring. When will enough be enough though? Andre missed more than 5 games the first time he hurt himself, and while reports are much more optimistic this time around his value will continue to drop with T.J. Yates (HOU, 46) at the helm. Johnson did pull in nearly 100 yards receiving before going down with the injury which looked promising going forward but with yet another injury to his lower half that will hamper his ability to break away and cut from the defender his value will significantly drop. This is now the second season in a row where Johnson has missed time due to injuries, and the fourth time in his career where he wasn’t able to play in a full season. With the 15th toughest schedule for wide receivers and his history of missing time due to injury I strictly advice you to give up on Johnson who is turning out to be the Beanie Wells of wide receivers.
Greg Olsen (CAR, 12) has been slipping down the list fast. In week 8, Olsen was able to record 13 fantasy points, since then only 8 including 4 straight 2 fantasy point outings in a row. Olsen isn’t getting the looks that he once was, and Cam Netwon (CAR, 2) seems to be doing it all by himself. The toughest part of it all is that Olsen is getting the targets, just isn’t doing anything with the ball once he does. So far in 2011, Olsen has failed to bring in at least 3 receptions only three times and prior to the bye week was able to record at least 40 yards receiving 5 times, since the bye, only once. Carolina has the third toughest schedule for tight ends still to come, which isn’t going to help Olsen’s value going forward.
This is it folks, win and move on, lose, and the season is over. You need to keep up on the waivers, the injuries, and the match ups. Like I’ve said before, I’ll never tell you to bench a first or second round draft pick, but outside of those two rounds, match up play needs to be looked at with a fine toothed comb. Good luck to everyone hopefully you all reach the finals.
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix
I will be on twitter answering any questions you may have from 10am – 12pm every Sunday.
All stats are based on NON-PPR leagues unless otherwise stated, and are as of the end of week 13 games.
(November 19, 2011 - Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)
 LaGarette Blount (credits below) Highlight: One final push for the playoffs before your season, and your money is thrown away for good.
Here we go Ladies and Gentlemen, your final shot at making the playoffs for your fantasy leagues. Most leagues out there have one last game left until the playoffs begin and if you are lucky enough to have an additional game to get into the postseason then congratulations. However, for most, this week is the one that will keep you alive or bury you for good.
In week 12, we saw some pretty interesting performances, from Beanie Wells and his 200+ yard game, to Chris Johnson barely missing the 200-yard mark himself. We also have seen yet again more injuries to the quarterback position as fill-in for Matt Schaub (HOU, 12), Matt Leinart (HOU, 46) went down in the first half with a broken collarbone. Meanwhile some unfamiliar quarterbacks emerged with greatness this week as 10 signal callers broke the 20-fantasy point mark including Rex Grossman (WSH, 25), Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 12), Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 10), Caleb Hanie (CHI, 40), and Vince Young (PHI, 39). With one week left in the fantasy regular season lets take a look at some of the best and worst matchups for the playoff run.
Rise:LaGarette Blount (TB, 26) returned from his knee injury with two pretty subpar fantasy outings against teams that he should’ve put up numbers against. However since his those lackluster performances Blount has recorded back to back 100-yard games on fewer than 20 carries per game giving him an average of 5.5 yards per carry. Blount has also found the end zone once during that span as well. Going forward Blount goes up against the 4th weakest schedule against the run in the National Football League. With two games still to come against Carolina and one against the Jaguars who just lost their head coach look for Blount to power his way through to fantasy relevance again. The fact that he gets to practice against the 2nd worst fantasy rushing defense in the league on a daily basis will only help him when going up against these teams. Please be weary however of his week 17 match up, most likely your championship game, when he faces the Atlanta Falcons who are giving up less than 14 fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Rex Grossman was recently given the starting position back after losing it earlier this year to John Beck (WSH, 37) in week 7. Since then he has recorded two games of more than 290 yards passing and in each of those games has found the end zone twice. His turnovers need to come down a bit, but with Santana Moss (WSH, 71) back the field will be opened up to get others involved and he will be able to sling the ball around. Grossman has the 16th weakest schedule for quarterbacks however two of his remaining games are against the worst team against opposing QBs (Minnesota) and the second worst (New England), not to mention he also has the Eagles and Giants still to come, two teams not known for stopping the pass.
When did Reggie Bush (MIA, 18) learn how to be a NFL running back. For years Bush has been a PPR monster with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, but was never able to consistently run through the tackles or become that rushing threat everyone thought he would be out of college. Over the last 5 weeks Bush has seemed to figure it all out with double-digit fantasy points in each week so far, with 4 touchdowns rushing over that same span. The one consistent part of it all is that he is getting the ball, with at least 13 carries in each of those 5 games, Bush has also caught at least 3 passes in every one. Bush faces the 6th weakest schedule for running backs to finish out the season with Oakland, Philly, and Buffalo over the next three weeks, a group of teams who have all allowed more than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.
Notable players on the rise include Eric Decker (DEN, 12) and Demaryius Thomas (DEN, 120) of Denver. By now you should all understand my complete hatred of Tim Tebow (DEN, 22). While he may be 5 – 1 as a starter this year he has significantly crushed the value of these two wide outs. Going forward, the Broncos face the 3rd weakest schedule against opposing wide outs. If Tebow can figure out how to raise that completion percentage over 45% Decker who has caught 4 of Tebow’s 5 touch down passes and Thomas will be the guys who benefit greatly. (I still doubt it but keep it in mind).
Fall:
Three weeks ago Michael Vick (PHI, 14) went down with broken ribs, and has not played since. Vince Young stepped into the role of starting quarterback and has preformed with flying colors. You may ask me with all of his success why would he be falling? Well, his first two opponents are perpetually terrible against opposing quarterbacks and he was able to shine because of it. Going forward Young, and subsequently Vick when he comes back, faces the 10th toughest schedule for quarterbacks. The Eagles soar across the country to face Seattle on a short week who currently ranks 10th among opposing quarterbacks tonight. The rest of the schedule isn’t any easier as they face only one team that is given up more than 16 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The schedule isn’t any easier for the Eagle running backs or wide receivers as their schedule ranks 3rd toughest for the run, and 5th toughest for the wide outs, so be prepared for tough games with LeSean McCoy (PHI, 1) and the Eagles pass catchers.
Adrian Peterson (MIN, 4) missed his week 12 game with a high ankle sprain. Toby Gerhart (MIN, 69) stepped in and was able to score but wasn’t able to rack up the yards that is needed to be a valuable fantasy starter. Peterson is still ailing from the injury but has been active running during practices and seems to be better. However, his status is still unknown for the game and won’t be until game time on Sunday. In the end it won’t be the injury that forces you to be fearful of these two halfbacks, but their remaining schedule should have you skeptical. The Vikings have the 10th toughest schedule for running backs still to come, with games against Denver, Detroit, Chicago, and Washington all teams who give up less than 18.2 points per game to opposing halfbacks. They do have a week 15 matchup against the Saints that looks very enticing, but the rest of their schedule should keep you hesitant.
Marshawn Lynch (SEA, 11) has been absolutely dominant so far this year. Lynch has recorded 6 double-digit fantasy point outings over the last 8 weeks and has scored in 6 of those games as well. The next two weeks are very interesting for Lynch, but it’s the semi-finals and finals weeks that you’ll need to worry about when looking to start or sit Lynch. Both the Eagles and the Rams are giving up more than 20 points per game to opposing running backs which should make Lynch an immediate start. Weeks 15, 16, and 17 are a completely different story when he faces Chicago, San Francisco, and the Arizona Cardinals, three teams who have given up less than 18 fantasy points to opposing halfbacks.
A lot of experts believed that this year would be Vincent Jackson’s (SD, 8) break out season. He seemed to put the contract distractions behind him when the lockout was lifted. Although it isn’t being reported that this is an issue with VJax his value has significantly dropped. In 5 of Jackson’s last 7 games he has recorded less than 5 fantasy points, which just isn’t going to cut it. In the games when he isn’t playing terribly he is exploding with more than 20 fantasy points in each. Going forward Jackson needs to be relegated to being a WR3 he will either be amazing or absolutely atrocious, there doesn’t seem to be an in between. The playoffs will not be very kind to Vincent Jackson and the rest of the San Diego Chargers. They face the 11th toughest schedule for wide receivers with games against Jacksonville who are giving up less than 15 points to opposing wide outs, and the Ravens later in the playoffs.
Two players you should keep an eye on for the playoffs will be Arian Foster (HOU, 3) and Ben Tate (HOU, 27). So far in 2011, Tate has been a pretty nice flex option for deeper leagues and Foster has been one of the best halfbacks to play this year. But with both their starting quarterback, and second string quarterback going down for the entire season teams will begin to stack the box vs. these two versatile ball carriers. The schedule favors them as they have the 3rd weakest schedule for running backs but with defenses forcing the Texans to beat them with the pass we may see a small drop off from these guys.
If you are one of those teams that have already made it to the playoffs then congratulations, and for those of you who need production from your guys in this final week before the playoffs begin good luck. Some great match ups are out there, and if you make the right decision you can find yourself on the inside, but make one false step and you’ll be the jealous one on the outside looking in. Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX
And as always I am available to answer any and all questions from 10am – 12pm on Sunday. (November 19, 2011 - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)
 Kevin Smith (credits below) Highlight: Breaking down the players with the best playoff schedules going forward
It is go time! The time of the year where your season is either over, or just beginning, with only two more regular season weeks this is the make or break time for your fantasy squads. It will be the moves you make now that will either win you your league, or flat out cost you the whole enchilada.
The 2011 season has had some major ups and downs, and if you are one of the lucky ones that have been able to come out of the bye weeks, or the injuries nearly unscathed then congratulations. However, if you were not as lucky, this is the time for you to step up your game and get the job done. Week 11 was another crazy week of injuries to star players. Another QB in Jay Cutler (CHI, 18) went done and will miss some significant time, first overall fantasy pick Adrian Peterson (MIN, 6) suffered a high ankle sprain that will cost him to lose several weeks as well. The prognosis seems better then expected with Peterson, but Felix Jones (DAL, 44) missed 4 weeks with the same injury, and with the fantasy playoffs coming up, plus the Vikings having no shot at making the playoffs Peterson may get shut down. Other injuries include Fred Jackson (BUF, 3), Matt Hasselbeck (TEN, 17) and A.J Green (CIN, 12). With all of these injuries occurring you will need to hit the wires and get yourself the right player for the playoff run.
Rise:
Carson Palmer (OAK, 36) has had three successful weeks in a row after suffering a terrible first appearance with Oakland where he played the second half 4 days after being acquired and threw three interceptions. Since then his turnovers have gone down in each week, an in week 11 he had zero turnovers, which is great to see. In those three games Palmer has six touchdown passes, rushed for another and has exceeded at least 18 fantasy points in each. Going forward Palmer is facing Chicago (14), Miami (7), Green Bay (6), Detroit (28), Kansas City (12), and San Diego (8). With 5 remaining games against teams in the bottom half of fantasy points given up to opposing QBs, Palmer is a great choice for your teams if you were one of the unlucky ones to lose your starting QB for the season.
DeMarco Murray (DAL, 20) blasted on the scene with a 253-yard performance against the Rams in week 7, and since then he has exceeded 100 yards rushing twice more, and except for week 8, he has had over 95 yards from scrimmage in every game since being named the starter when Felix Jones went down. Felix came back from injury this week and most fantasy players were worried that he would take away from Murray’s production, but that just wasn’t the case. Murray was not only the starter but the Cowboys pretty much put all the whispering to a hush when they gave Murray 31 total touches and Felix only 6. Murray is going to be the starter going forward, and while we cannot predict how many touches Felix will get, it is safe to say that he will not kill Murray’s value. With a remaining schedule of Miami (31), Giants twice (13), Cardinals (12), Eagles (8) and Buccs (2), Murray should be the number one half back for you going into the fantasy playoffs.
Kevin Smith (DET, 49) crushed the Panthers this past week. But who doesn’t, the Panthers currently rank as the worst rushing defense in terms of fantasy points given up. Most people thought Smith would have a good game, but not as good as he evidently had. What’s nice about Smith is his remaining schedule. He faces three teams in the bottom 15 of fantasy points given up to opposing half backs, Vikings (11), Saints (14), Raiders (7) and has games against the Chargers (17) and Packers twice (21). Much like Murray, Smith has a very enjoyable schedule going forward and should at the least be looked at as a RB2 and / or flex spot going forward.
A player to keep on eye on going forward specifically if you had a run of injuries lately is Jake Locker (TEN, 40) who put up 18 fantasy points after Hasselbeck went down with an injury to his elbow in week 11. If Matt can’t go Locker will get the start and should do pretty well for you if you are in a pinch.
FALL:
Chris Ogbonnaya (CLE, 41) wins this year’s award for hardest name to pronounce in the National Football League. Just about every announcer, analyst, or broadcaster cannot pronounce his name correctly, and they’re probably right not to be able to, because with his remaining schedule if he isn’t dead by the time the season is over he will have been forgotten. Ogbonnaya had a pretty good game in week 11 vs. Jacksonville who has been pretty tough against the run, however going forward Ogbonnaya will face the Steelers and the Ravens twice, the Bengals in week 12 and in between all of that they have Arizona. Peyton Hillis (CLE, 44) and/or Montario Hardesty (CLE, 55) should also be coming off the injury report soon which will also severely hurt Ogbonnaya’s chances at being a relevant fantasy half back in the playoffs.
Although an injury to Fred Jackson may give him the starting nod while Jackson is on the shelf, C.J. Spiller (BUF, 64) shouldn’t be looked upon as an option to fill in if you lost someone like Jackson or Peterson. Spiller hasn’t been given an opportunity to truly shine just yet, and in a PPR league he will have some value. However, he is going up against tough rushing defenses like the Jets, Dolphins and Broncos. Spiller also goes up against the Patriots and the Chargers and while they aren’t the toughest to run on, they are nowhere near the easiest. For now stay away, if he proves he can be relevant then maybe but I doubt it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 15) started off masterfully with a total of 82 fantasy points through the first three weeks of the season. He looked like a new man, a man on a mission, someone who finally understand the game and he was going out there and preforming in such a manner. However, since week 3 Fitzpatrick only has a total of 76 fantasy points, which is a total of 7 games. It is safe to say that Fitzpatrick was masking his inability in the beginning of the season and it caused for many owners to jump on him only to disappoint for the remainder of the season. Over the last three weeks Fitzpatrick hasn’t scored more than 11 fantasy points, has committed ten turnovers and threw for only two touchdowns. Many people believe it’s the act of injuries that has caused the downturn, but I believe it’s a just a case of him being the quarterback we thought he was. Going forward, Fitz has games against the Jets, and Titans two teams that have been pretty tough against the pass in 2011. The one thing that might save him, and your fantasy seasons is his remaining schedule where he faces off against four teams in the bottom 10 against opposing QBs, although, he did just get 5 fantasy points in week 11 to the 8th worst passing defense, so it doesn’t look good.
We have hit the time of the year where the schedules and matchups are the most important part of your roster selection process. In the beginning of the year I would’ve told you were crazy to sit some of the players most people were asking me about. But now that we are getting into playoff time, matchups will be the thing that keep you from the toilet bowl, and get you to the championship. All Stats and Rankings are based on NON-PPR leagues unless otherwise stated, and are updated as of the end of week 10.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX
And as always I am available to answer any and all questions from 10am – 12pm on Sunday. (November 19, 2011 - Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)
 Laurent Robinson (credits below) Highlight: Unexpected players stepping it up when no one thought they’d be this good.
Fantasy football is hard; in general fantasy sports are hard. You really have to know what you are doing on draft day to put together the right team, but at the same time you also need to follow every game played, every minute of the action to see what players are going to be available on the waiver wire, or which ones you should look to trade for or trade away. The seasons are long, and grueling and if you aren’t paying attention around the clock you can easily see your seasons slip away.
With that said it is also extremely easy for you to fail if even if you are quick to pull the trigger. You may have hit the waiver wire this year and selected Montario Hardesty (CLE, 50) instead of DeMarco Murray (DAL, 21) or on draft day you may have selected Philip Rivers (SD, 12) instead of Eli Manning (NYG, 6) and could be kicking yourself now. As we approach the last few weeks of the fantasy regular season it will be the non-stop team manicuring that will win your season, but you have to make the right moves.
RISE:
Who would’ve thought that Eli Manning would be playing as well as he has? I know I found it very difficult to understand when players were drafting the Giants quarterback before the likes of Drew Brees (NO, 2), Mike Vick (PHI, 9), and Philip Rivers on draft day. I swore up and down that it must’ve been one of those Homer picks (I am from the East Coast so that was not out of the question). But as we stand here today with 10 weeks of football under our belts these fantasy players were right. Of the three quarterbacks mentioned above only Drew Brees has more fantasy value than Eli Manning does. Eli currently rests 6th among all fantasy QBs with 157 total fantasy points, only 5 points behind Matthew Stafford for the #5 spot. Manning is on pace to exceed his career numbers in passing yards, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. If he stays on his current pace he will fall short of career numbers in touchdowns and interceptions, but the numbers will be so close that I am sure you will all be happy with how he finishes out.
Injuries have caused a lot of players who we never thought would preform to step up and do just that. One in particular is Dallas Cowboys wide-out Laurent Robinson (DAL, 27). Miles Austin (DAL, 32) has been one of the Cowboys main go to guys in that offense for many years, however in 2011 injuries have sidelined the New Jersey resident two different times. In those injury-riddled stints Robinson has stepped up big time for the proclaimed America’s Team. During weeks 3 and 4 when Austin missed time due to a hamstring injury, Robinson combined for 10 grabs and 165 yards receiving. Following the bye week Miles Austin returned to the field, however besides that first game against the Patriots, Robinson has out preformed Miles Austin in every week. Specifically in weeks 8 and 9 when Robinson reeled in 10 passes from Tony Romo (DAL, 10) for 135 yards and 2 scores combined. Austin hurt himself again in the week 9 contest against Seattle, and there was Robsinon stepping it up again in week 10 converting 3 passes for 73 yards and 2 scores. Austin will be hurt for a few more weeks, so it is safe to say Robinson will get the looks, and with 4 TD grabs in the last three weeks Robinson will be a nice WR 2 / Flex spot going forward.
A few weeks ago I told you about wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, 6) and Roddy White (ATL, 19) being on the downturn. And while Roddy White is still dropping, Fitz has really picked it up. Shockingly a blessing in disguise came to the Cardinals when their new 60 million dollar quarterback Kevin Kolb (ARI, 24) went down with a foot injury causing back up John Skelton (ARI, 37) to step into the role. Since then Fitzgerald has been on fire, with more than 8 targets in each of Skeltons two games this year Fitz has amassed 11 catches for nearly 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in that span. Skelton clearly knows who his bread and butter is, something that Kolb couldn’t figure out. Going forward his matchups aren’t amazing, but his ability is, and he should be just fine especially if Skelton continues to target his main guy.
I find it hard to believe that in all of this time writing for TheFantasyFix.com that I have yet to mention Shady (LeSean) McCoy (PHI, 1). McCoy has been an absolute monster in 2011 both on the ground and through the air. McCoy currently sits #1 among all half backs in fantasy points nearly 20 points higher than the #2 HB in non-PPR leagues and 10 points higher in PPR leagues. He is second in the NFL in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, top 10 in receptions for HBs and second for TD receptions by HBs. McCoy is the only real option on the ground for the Eagles outside of Vick of course. They are getting him the ball regularly and will continue to do so making him one of the most consistent guys in the NFL this year. CLICK HERE TO ENTER OUR NFL JERSEY SWEEPSTAKES GIVEAWAY ON FACEBOOK!
FALL:
The law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE, 26) has taken a hiatus over the last few weeks. After back-to-back promising games for the Patriots running back in week 4 and 5, Green-Ellis hasn’t been able to put anything together. Since week 6 BenJarvus only has a total of 127 yards rushing in 4 games, including two games of fewer than 10 yards. In each of the four games BJGE has yet to collect double-digit fantasy points with two big fat zeros mixed in. Because of the Patriots poor passing defense it seems as if their offense is turning more towards the pass every week looking to put up points fast and often. This is hurting BenJarvus’ value and at this point should probably be benched.
Another running back that hasn’t been able to get anything going is Cedric Benson (CIN, 28). I mentioned a few weeks ago that if Benson can find the end zone he would be a pretty reliable halfback, but since saying that, he hasn’t found the end zone but once and that was against the Colts, arguably one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Benson has only three double-digit fantasy point games this year and hasn’t scored more than 18 all season long. Unlike Green-Ellis whose value is hurt by the passing game, Benson’s value is damaged because he just doesn’t seem to be able to run the ball efficiently. Benson has rushed for more than 15 times in every game this season including 4 games of 19 or more, he just isn’t getting the job done. Much like BenJarvus, Benson should be a bench player / bye week filler at this point.
With Kenny Britt (TEN, 56) playing, Nate Washington (TEN, 28) was one of the leagues top #2 wide receivers. With three straight weeks of double-digit fantasy points, Washington exceeded 5 catches or 60 yards in each of the first five games of the season. Then came the injury to Britt. Nate hasn’t recorded more than 40 yards since, and in that span only has one double-digit performance. Because Washington has become the go to guy in Tennessee it has been easier for defenses to lock on him forcing the rest of the Titans offense to step up, and as we have seen that hasn’t happened.
There are only three weeks left in the fantasy regular season. As I stated last week if you aren’t at least 5 – 5 or in an extremely tight league your season is probably over. It may be time to look and work for next season, and if you are in a keeper or dynasty league the players mentioned above could be guys to set your sights on or get rid of heading into 2012.
All Stats and Rankings are based on NON-PPR leagues unless otherwise stated, and are updated as of the end of week 10.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX
And as always I am available to answer any and all questions from 10am – 12pm on Sunday. (November 5, 2011 - Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America)
 Steven Jackson (credits below) Highlight: With only four weeks left in the fantasy regular season, who should we keep an eye on heading into the playoffs?
Week 9 has come and gone and we are now just a few weeks away from the beginning of the fantasy playoffs. If your record isn't at least 4 – 5 in a very tight league your season is probably over by now. But, if you are one of the lucky ones to have escaped the bye weeks so far with a winning record you should be looking pretty with just four matchups left.
With games beginning early this week most leagues rosters and lineup changes need to be in prior to the start of the Thursday Night showdown between the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders. As always each week there are players who rose to the occasion and those who stumbled and landed on their faces.
RISE:
Brandon Lloyd (38, STL) has been wearing blue and gold for just three weeks now and since doing so he has been on point. The former Illinois wide receiver has posted three straight weeks of double-digit fantasy points. In the three weeks since he was traded from the Broncos to the Rams, Lloyd has pulled in at least 5 catches in every game with 50 or more yards in each game. It is clear that the Rams are trying to get the ball to Lloyd. They wanted Mike Sims-Walker to play this role for the team, but that didn’t work so Lloyd was acquired to fill it. Josh McDaniels was Lloyd old head coach in Denver, which helped to propel Lloyd to the #1 fantasy wide receiver just a year ago. That combination is together again as McDaniels is the offensive coordinator and they are picking up right where they left off.
Another St. Louis Ram that is scaling the pecking order is running back Steven Jackson (14, STL). For years Jackson was known as a major value in PPR leagues and to start his 2011 campaign most fantasy owners were scratching their heads trying to figure out why he wasn’t living up to that hype. In the past 5 games played Jackson has recorded 4 catches in 4 of them with at least 19 yards in 3 of them. Besides Jackson’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield he has certainly picked it up when handed the rock as well. Since the week 5 bye Jackson has rushed for at least 95 yards in 3 of the 4 games with over 130 in his last two. Accompanied with his stellar rushing performances have been 3 touchdowns on the ground. Jackson has always been a prominent halfback but concerns of his inability to score touchdowns regularly have held him back. If he can continue doing what he has over the last few weeks he can be an even more dominant back in this league.
Matt Hasselbeck (13, TEN) has been known as one of those most consistent quarterbacks in the league. Since 2002 Hasselbeck has record at least 3,000 yards passing in every season but 2, one of which was an injury shortened season. So far in 2011 the former Boston College signal caller has thrown for more than 2,000 yards and that has only been in 8 games. With the disappearance of Chris Johnson at running back, Hasselbeck has needed to do it all on his own and he has stepped up to the challenge. Besides a lack luster performance in week 7 against the Texans, Matt has recorded double-digit fantasy points in every other game so far this season with at least 16 fantasy points 5 of the games. Hasselbeck has completed at least one touchdown pass in every game so far this year and he still has games against the Colts, Saints, Falcons and Jaguars. Hasselbeck should be one of the more reliable quarterbacks come Fantasy Playoff time.
It seemed to me like Mike Wallace (3, PIT) became a star overnight. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 NFL draft, he blasted his way onto the scene recording nearly 800 yards receiving and 6 scores. Since then, Wallace has been the epitome of consistency. Recording 10 receiving touchdowns in 2010 and so far 6 in 2011. The difference is, Wallace is now becoming a true #1 WR and has crept his way into top 5 status in fantasy football with 47 receptions and just under 900 yards in 9 games. Wallace is on pace to put up nearly 1800 yards receiving, 12 TDs and 90 catches which is something I didn’t see coming just a few years ago. Wallace should be looked upon as that top tier wide receiver talent for years to come and fantasy players should start thinking of Wallace before guys like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White.
FALL:
For years Maurice Jones-Drew (14, JAC) was known as top 5, first round talent. After an injury shortened season most players wanted to push him back a bit in hopes to land the guy that has top 5 talent later in the draft.. However, this year Jones-Drew hasn’t even played to his second round potential. Many may say it is a product of a new and very young offense led by rookie QB Blaine Gabbert but to me I think it’s more about the once great running back being not so great anymore. Maurice hasn’t had a terrible rushing season so far, as he has recorded at least 84 yards in every week. The problem he is having is the inability to reach the end zone. With only three rushing touchdowns so far Maurice has ranked outside of the top 10 for fantasy running backs through week 9. Those numbers suggest that something is wrong either with his own ability or the team’s ability to move the ball. Either way, it means it is time to keep a very close eye on MJD until things change. If you can trade the halfback and get name value for him now is the time to do it.
Ahmad Bradshaw (12, NYG) another 2nd round potential halfback has not produced as such. In 5 of 7 games played Bradshaw has scored 11 fantasy points or less. Bradshaw has some value in PPR leagues still with at least 4 receptions in 4 games, however much like Jones-Drew, Bradshaw isn’t finding the end zone. Besides his 3 TD performance against Buffalo (when he scored 3, 1-yard touchdowns after receivers failed to get the ball in the end zone) Bradshaw only has 2 rushing touchdowns and 1 more receiving. Bradshaw was drafted to be running back 1, but so far he has been a RB2, which is probably hurting more teams then helping them.
After two weeks of football almost every fantasy owner was buying in on Dustin Keller (11, NYJ). Since then, people have begun to give up. Keller began the season with nearly 30 fantasy points in standard non-PPR leagues after accumulating over 150 yards and 2 TDs in that two-week span. Since then Keller hasn’t found the end zone once, and in that duration has not recorded more than 8 fantasy points in a single game. Keller seemed to be Mark Sanchez’ red zone guy but something changed. He isn’t getting the looks that he once was which is causing his value to fall further and further each week. Keller is still a borderline TE1 but he is pushing it, and you should keep an eye on it when heading into the playoffs.
Notables:
I am sure most of you who read this column are wondering if I will ever give Tim Tebow (25, DEN) the credit he deserves. I am sure I eventually will when he earns it. Having one good game doesn’t make a superstar QB. Now, I heard a statistic given by Ray Flowers from Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio when he said that since becoming a starter last season, Tebow is averaging more than 24 fantasy points a game in games he has started. This number is shocking, and clearly puts him above the upper echelon of players. But, I am not buying it. Maybe it’s because of the way he was shoved down our throats, or the fact that he is a Gator and I hate the Gators, who knows. But for now, I will be hesitant.
Rob Gronkowski (2, NE) has really come on fire the last few weeks. In his last three games Rob has posted at least 7 catches for 74 yards in all of them. If he can find the end zone more frequently he would be the best tight end in the league.
Vincent Jackson (6, SD) doubled his touchdown output in the week 9 loss to the Packers with 3 scores and put up more than 30 fantasy points in this game. What concerns me is that he has more single digit fantasy performances then double digit. Philip Rivers obviously looked his way a lot, in this game, and if they can continue to do so Vincent Jackson will be the guy we have always thought he was.
All Stats and Rankings are based on standard 12 Team NON-PPR leagues
All Stats and Rankings are up to date as of the end of week 9 games
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX
And I will be answering your trade and line up questions on twitter from 10am to 12pm every Sunday. (October 22, 2011 - Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images North America)
 Fred Jackson (credits below) Highlight: Taking a look back at the average draft position and who has outperformed their ADP, and who under performed it at the halfway point.
Mock drafts are a great way to determine where players are being drafted before your real drafts. And as many of your little league and tee ball coaches told you after seeing you in dismay sulking in the corner thinking you are no good, “practice makes perfect”. Mock drafts are essentially that. Practice. Mock drafts are used to understand the logic of the other players around you. Who is high on Calvin Johnson, and who is low on Chris Johnson? Obviously these drafts are no substitute for the knuckle heads that will undoubtedly draft Eli Manning before they draft Drew Brees (and believe me I have seen it) but it will give you a good idea as to where players SHOULD go, who you will need to reach for, and who you can keep stowed in your pocket as a sleeper. At the same time, these drafts can also help you for when you want to take a look back and relive those knuckle head moves you and others made.
We have finally reached the mid-way point of the 2011 NFL season, and injuries have stormed the headlines so far in the early part of the year. We have already lost one first round pick for the year, another first rounder missing significant time, and arguably the first tight end drafted miss 5 games. Injuries are next to impossible to predict, so drafting Jamaal Charles and Andre Johnson was smart, but drafting Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald haven’t really panned out.
Most fantasy analysts will take this time to give you their mid-season awards, and while this article will be similar in a way, I will be basing this information totally off of the players ADP, who has out played their draft day status, and who hasn’t.
RISE:
I think it is safe to say that I have a slight man crush on Fred Jackson. This is now the third week in a row where I have mentioned him in some facet or another. But how can you not. Jackson ran for less than 1,000 yards last season, and in less than a full year he has accounted for nearly 75% of his 2010 totals. The whole Buffalo Bills offense is playing to a standard we aren’t accustomed to seeing and it all starts with Fred Jackson. Jacksons’ ADP among all players was 51 good for the 21st running back taken. Needless to say he has out performed his preseason position. Fred Jackson is being awarded my Arian Foster award, for the running back taken outside of the top 50 draft picks yet performed in the top 5.
It is hard to talk about outstanding players without mentioning Wes Welker. Welker, the clear go to guy for Tom Brady now that Randy Moss is gone (Ochowho?) has nearly outperformed every single wide out in football to date, beside Megatron of course. Welker currently sits at #2 overall in terms of scoring for wide receivers through the first 8 weeks of the season. To think that Wes Welker was a return man just a few seasons ago in Miami and now is one of the best players in the league is mind-boggling. In 2011 Welker is on pace for more than 110 catches and 1,700 yards receiving. Wes Welker is being given my Brandon Lloyd Award. Awarded to the most outstanding receiver based on ADP. Welker’s ADP was 48 in 2011 and 64 in 2010, both years he outperformed those numbers.
This next pass catcher, I had on my radar on draft day. Although it seems as if my radar was off because I didn’t want to touch this guy any time before the 10th round. Steve Smith has been resurrected from the dead in 2011 and I have to believe no one saw it coming. Smith currently ranks 4th among wide outs with nearly 1000 yards receiving through 8 games. His 83rd overall ADP didn’t suggest those numbers coming into the season. With the unbelievable emergence of Cam Newton as a top 5 QB, Smith has finally been able to run wild like he did for so many years in the past. Steve Smith is being awarded my Resident Evil Award. Given to the player who for the last few seasons has been a zombie on the football field, but seems to have found a cure for the T-Virus and is playing like we once knew him to.Fall:
With all of the hype surrounding Michael Vick on draft day you would think he would be outscoring everyone in fantasy football by 1,248 points by now. That is just not the case, and while some of you may be scratching your heads at this one, Vick was touted all off-season as being the best fantasy player in the game (although he didn’t even outscore Arian Foster in 2010 for most points in the league). Vick averaged a draft pick of 4 in most leagues right behind some of the best running backs in the league (minus Chris Johnson who was 3rd) and was the first among quarterbacks selected in most drafts. (Remember the Eli before Brees thing I mentioned before? Yea I saw Eli before Vick as well) Michael Vick hasn’t had a terrible season by any stretch of the imagination; he just hasn’t played to the hype. Vick currently sits 6th among all quarterbacks including both Matthew Stafford, 93rd, and Cam Newton, Undrafted, and 12th in the league in total scoring leaders. Michael Vick is being awarded my, Dude Where’s My Car Award. At this point people are scratching their heads saying, “dude where is my first round pick?”
In every season we find the player that was drafted really low and played really high, and then we find the player who was drafted really high, and is playing really low. This year is no different (SEE: Fred Jackson Above) and Chris Johnson. CJ2k was being drafted in the top 5 of most leagues. And anyone who was able to grab him later than that were dancing for joy knowing, or shall I say believing, they just drafted the steal of the whole thing and they haven’t even gotten out of the first round yet. I have got to believe those dancing fools are now banging their heads against the wall screaming “WHYYYYYY?” Chris Johnson is currently 30th among running backs in fantasy points for, barely a flex spot. Chris Johnson is being awarded my, Shonn Greene Award, given to the running back that was drafted really high, but performed really low.
These next two participants were drafted 1st and 6th among the leagues wide receivers but neither of them has achieved the numbers to establish their ADPs. Roddy White was drafted 11th overall and 1st for a wide out yet sits outside of the top 10 for receivers. Larry Fitzgerald is having similar problems as he also is on the outside looking in. Both of these high end WRs are experiencing some difficulties getting the ball regularly. The quarterbacks for the Falcons and the Cardinals respectively aren’t having that great of a season and thus it is causing these two top-notch pass catchers to stumble out of the gate. Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald are Co-Winners of my, WR Duo Award. As you can guess this is being awarded to the receiver(s) who can’t seem to get things straight.Other Notable Awards being handed out: Jimmy Graham is being awarded my Marcedes Lewis Award. This award is given out to the most outstanding TE who was barely touched on draft day let alone in the starting lineups in week 1. Graham has outscored the 2nd best tight end by 21 points so far this season.
Cam Newton is being awarded my Where the Hell Did This Guy Come From Award. I argued back in week 3 that Cam Newton wouldn’t finish in the top 20 of QBs, boy was I wrong. Cam Newton went undrafed in most leagues and is now the best player in fantasy sports and has the 3rd most rushing TDs in the league only behind Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy.
And Darren Sproles is being awarded my Wes Welker Award. Given to the guy whom no one thought could be a viable offensive option, and now he rests among the top offensive producers in the league. Sproles is currently 2nd in the league in catches only behind the namesake of this award.
All Average Draft Positions were used by MockDraftCentral.com
All Numbers, and Rankings are up to date as of the end of all played games in week 8.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX
As always I will be chatting live on twitter from 10am to 12pm on game day taking your fantasy and probably life questions. (October 15, 2011 - Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Peckin' Order, Justin Mandaro, Week 9, Players on the Rise, Players on the Decline
 Shonn Greene (credits below) Can you believe we are at the halfway point of the season already? Time flies when you’re having fun. Or for guys like Chris Johnson (TEN, 21) not having fun. So far through 7 weeks of the NFL season we have seen many ups and downs. We have some familiar faces at the top like Aaron Rodgers (GB, 1) and All Day Adrian Peterson (MIN, 4). But we have also seen some new faces cracking the top of the ranks like Cam Newton (CAR, 3) and Fred Jackson (BUF, 2). As always in this article we will break down the players who are on the rise, and those who are falling down the pecking order of fantasy football. And if you are still a little uncertain of what the pecking order means, check out my week 7 column.
RISE:Demaryius Thomas (DEN, 116) is a player to keep your eyes on. Thomas who was drafted in the first round by the Denver Broncos out of Georgia Tech University just two seasons ago has missed significant time to injuries. His hype out of college was that of Calvin Johnson (DET, 1) which caused him to be drafted so highly. He showed sparkle last week, and was clearly Tim Tebow’s main target with 10 looks for the game. He was only able to reel in 3 of those targets but one was for a score. Brandon Lloyd was dealt to St. Louis for a reason, and that was to get Thomas the ball. If Tebow can ring in that gunslinger arm of his and be more accurate this wide-out will be a monster.
Shonn Greene (NYJ, 20) is finally getting the rock. The Jets have called his name at least 20 times in each of the last three games and he has produced when they have. In that span Greene has averaged over 4 yards per carry and scored once. Greene is clearly taking control of the running game and the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets are returning to the ground game. With favorable fantasy playoff matchups in Philly, Mia, KC and against the Giants, Greene should be a your go to RB2 for the stretch run.
Last week I mentioned about running back committees in Carolina and Washington, but things changed this weekend. With Tim Hightower (WSH, 26) suffering a season ending injury in the loss to Carolina, Ryan Torain (WSH, 59) should be named the starter. Mike Shanahan is the mad scientist of running backs so that may also mean Roy Helu (WSH, 53) will also begin to see some extended time out there. For the Carolina Panthers it seems as if Jonathan Stewart (CAR, 17) is the one emerging victorious. Since DeAngelo Williams (CAR, 38) had back-to-back games of 82 and 115 yards earlier in the season he has been on the decline, failing to reach the end zone or 50 yards. Stewart has 48 or more yards and a score in each of the last two games. Stewart also holds value in point per reception leagues with at least 3 catches in 4 games so far.
For years Hines Ward (PIT, 44) and Big Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, 7) had a special connection and during their tenure together they have been one of the best quarterback / wide receiver combinations in the league. Ward is getting older and subsequently slower and Roethlisberger seems to have found a new special target. Antonio Brown (PIT, 46) caught 7 passes for 102 yards last week, his first 100-yard game of the year. Brown has amassed double digit fantasy points in 4 of the 7 games so far this year, and while he hasn’t reach the fantasy promise land yet with a score he should’ve had at least one this past Sunday but Roethlisberger over threw him twice. Brown is getting the looks, and that means he will eventually get that elusive touchdown under his belt.
Other notable players on the rise include Michael Bush (OAK, 31), Delone Carter (IND, 45) and Jason Hill (JAC, 50). Darren McFadden (OAK, 7) left after only two carries Sunday giving Bush the major workload vs. Kansas City. The Raiders are on a bye this week, which could hurt Bush from getting another chance. But if DMac’s foot injury is worse than what initially thought, Bush would be the beneficiary of his missing playing time. Carter is clearly the Colts goal-line running back of choice and he was the only Colt to cross that goal-line in the Sunday Night Massacre against the Saints. Hill has three straight double-digit fantasy point weeks and scored a touchdown in two of them. With Mike Sims-Walker (JAC, 95) back in Jacksonville, Hill is playing in the slot again and producing.
FALL:
I mentioned Chris Johnson earlier, and he currently sits outside of the top 20 in running backs, which means for 10 team leagues he isn’t even a RB2 and that’s shocking. CJ2k is no longer, only 18 yards rushing this week isn’t going to get it done for anyone’s fantasy football team. Granted the Titans were being demolished and couldn’t run the ball. Johnson did record six catches but for only 27 yards, a player of CJ’s caliber should be breaking out with those six catches (See: Arian Foster, 5 catches 119 yards, in that same game). Johnson cannot be trusted at this point. He received his payday and has packed it in and it doesn’t look good for your team. Buy low on this guy and stash him on your bench. If he can break out of the funk and prove people wrong he could be a huge asset for you come playoff time. Just don’t hold your breath.
Phillip Rivers (SD, 18) you would think by all accounts that Rivers would be a bust so far this season and that is just not the truth. However, the man isn’t playing like we have seen from him in the past. Rivers isn’t really having a problem getting the ball downfield, during the first five weeks of the season Rivers has collected at least 250 yards passing in each of them with over 300 yards in three of the games and only one game so far has he failed to reach the end zone. Where the problem lies with Rivers is his turnovers. In leagues where you get negative points for fumbles, and interceptions Rivers is falling. He has turned the ball over at least once in five of six games so far this year, with three turnovers in three of those games. The Jets pass defense stopped him for less than 200 yards passing for the first time this year and forced two interceptions. While Rivers numbers haven’t been dismal they haven’t been the same and that is causing this QB to crash.
I am sorry, but I do not believe all the hype surrounding Gods child in Denver. Since the start of the season, the controversy in the off-season and the attempted trade of Kyle Orton (DEN, 27), the fans, analysts, and preachers have been screaming for Tim Tebow (DEN, 33) to get his time behind center. He finally did, and I wasn’t impressed. Sure, Tebow threw for two scores ran in a two point conversion to tie it all in the fourth quarter and the Broncos went on to win. But he didn’t look extraordinary in that win, over throws to wide open receivers, terrible ball handling that eventually was fumbled, and spinning around turning his back to defenders were just some of the highlights that made me nearly sick to my stomach. Tebow ran for a big gain and bowled over a linebacker, but during that play he held the ball out, he spun out of tackles and was nearly running in circles — a real defense would’ve stopped him from doing so. A quick underneath route went for a big gain late when the Dolphins were trying to force him to pass and missed tackles. And if it weren’t for an amazing diving catch by Daniel Fells (DEN, 24) the comeback doesn’t happen. I am sure I will take some heat for this, but consider me unconvinced. I didn’t rush to the waiver wire to pick him up, and I am certainly not looking to trade for the man now.
Other notable players I consider to be falling are Rashard Mendenhall (PIT, 33), New Orleans Saints wide outs Robert Meachem (33) and Devery Henderson (53) and Knowshon Moreno (DEN, 56). Last week I told you to keep an eye on Mendenhall after he came out guns blazing against Jacksonville, this week was a disappointment to say the least. The Steelers did come out throwing Sunday with nearly 40 attempts but Mendenhall did get double digit carries, just couldn’t do anything with them averaging less than 3 yards per carry. This is not the first time Mendenhall has seen that problem, and it will not be the last. Mendenhall could be a great player but if he continues this way he is definitely falling. Meachem and Henderson combined for 3 catches and 36 yards in the 62-7 win over the Colts this past week. Neither wide-out has seen the end zone since week 3. And with Marques Colston (NO, 20) and Jimmy Graham (NO, 1) climbing the ranks, these two are falling down them. Willis McGahee (DEN, 19) suffered an injury that will give Moreno his shot to start. Moreno hasn’t ran the ball more than 8 times in a game and hasn’t reached the 30 yard mark yet. But with a fullback playing quarterback in Denver, Moreno probably won’t see any increased time, which to me means keep him out of your line up until we can prove he can take the ball.
Players to keep your eyes on: Antonio Gates (SD, 30) it is hard to believe that a player of Gates caliber could be so far down the list of top tight ends. But with another injury-plagued season so far Gates hasn’t been able to do much. He found the end zone Sunday and surpassed the 50-yard mark on 5 catches. If Gates can stay healthy he should be back to must start immediately.
In PPR leagues Mike Williams (TB, 38) still has some value, but it’s diminishing. Williams reached the 60-yard mark for just the second time all season Sunday. The problem is the masterful rookie with 11 touchdowns a season ago only has one so far this year. Williams is getting the targets and the completions just not reaching the end zone, which as fantasy players we need.
I guess I have to mention DeMarco Murray (DAL, 41) and his record-setting performance against the Rams. I just am not sold yet, which is tough for me to say, as I am both a Dallas Cowboy fan, and an Oklahoma Sooners fan. Murray was helped by a few things: first, the Felix Jones (DAL, 36) injury; second, the Rams 29th ranked defense against the run in terms of fantasy points given up; and third, a 91 yard TD in the first quarter. I like Murray and have for a while, and while I think he can take over as starting HB for the Cowboys, I am just not totally sure he will replicate these numbers week in and week out.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow Justin on twitter @PeckinRotoX
Every Sunday from 10am – 12pm you can catch me on twitter with your start and sit questions.
Rankings and stats are as of Week 7 games.
Number in parenthesis is fantasy rank at players position. (October 8, 2011 - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Peckin' Order, Justin Mandaro, Week 8, Players on the Rise, Players on the Decline
 Fred Jackson (credits below) The definition of a pecking order as defined by the people at Merriam-Webster is known as a social hierarchy with ranks and classes. This can be added to any real world situation, from work, where you have a boss, and they have a boss and so on, to the NFL and fantasy football where there will always be the best player, and then players beneath them. In this column I will break down the pecking order of fantasy football by going over the players who are rising up the boards, and those who are dropping, heavily.
RISE:
The most notable of the rises must be Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills as he currently sits atop the pecking order for running backs in 2011. There has been no question to his value so far, but where the surprise comes from is his work from last season to this one. Jackson who only trails Darren McFadden in rushing with 601 yards through 6 weeks only had 927 yards rushing all of last season. Jackson is an obvious start each week, and his value will never be any higher. I would suggest holding on to him, but if you can sell high (and I mean mighty high, a kings ransom so to speak) pull the trigger.
Last night as I was putting together my list of rising players, Terrelle Pryor (NR) was a player I was going to list with the injury to Jason Campbell. Pryor wasn’t going to start in week 7, and probably wouldn’t see much playing time while the Raiders continue to win. But with Kyle Boller expected to start, who knows how long they would’ve kept that going. However, things changed this morning when the Oakland Raiders acquired Carson Palmer from the Cincinnati Bengals for two first round picks. Carson hasn’t played a game, thrown a pass, or even participated in a practice yet this season. Boller probably will start in week 7, but Palmer is sure to take over quickly. The acquisition of Palmer significantly increases Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK, 32)and Jacoby Ford (OAK, 89). Heyward-Bey has recorded at least 100 yards receiving, a score or 6 catches in each of the last three weeks. Palmer loved Ochocinco for so many years, and Heyward-Bey seems to fit that role.
Another nice storyline this season is the rise and fall of the tight end position so far. Brandon Pettigrew (DET, 5), Jake Ballard (NYG, 14), and Fred Davis (WSH, 13) are pushing up the ladder quickly. Pettigrew has put together some nice games as of late after beginning the season slowly. In the last four weeks Pettigrew has surpassed 12 fantasy points in each week, has scored in each of the last two games and even had an 11 catch 112 yard performance in week 3 vs. Minnesota. Jake Ballard has been a pretty nice replacement for Kevin Boss who went to Oakland this season. Ballard has had double digit fantasy points in each of the last three weeks, while recording either a touchdown or 70 yards in each of those games. With Chris Cooley missing some time in Washington, Fred Davis has really been able to shine. Davis only has one touchdown so far on the season, but he has reached 80 yards and 5 catches in 3 of the 5 games. Another tight end to quickly note is Dallas Clark (IND, 17). Clark has been pretty dismal so far this year, but he recorded his 2nd touchdown of this season Sunday and recorded 6 catches for the first time this season. If Painter can continue to look his way, Clark can find himself back in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends by seasons end.
Some other notable players on the rise, Andy Dalton (CIN, 19) has a QB Rating of 85 and over 1300 yards passing through 6 weeks. Jerome Simpson (CIN, 39) is benefiting from Dalton’s rise and caught 103 yards in week 6. Greg Little (CLE, 71) has recorded 6 catches and 50 yards in each of the last two weeks. Percy Harvin (MIN, 26) caught 2 passes for 35 yards once Christian Ponder came into the game Sunday night, and Marques Colston (NO, 53) has 13 catches for nearly 200 yards and a score since returning from injury and that includes a 1 catch 8 yard performance three weeks ago.
FALL:
As players rise, others must fall, that is just how it works. The most notable of the drops must be Marcedes Lewis (JAC, 40). Lewis finished fourth in 2010 among tight ends with 177 fantasy points and tied the league with the most touchdowns by tight ends with 10. Through 6 games, Lewis has yet to reach double-digit fantasy points something he only did 6 times in all of last year. Lewis hasn’t reached the end zone, hasn’t caught more than 3 passes, and hasn’t gained more than 38 yards in a single game. Lewis should be on waivers in most leagues until Blaine Gabbert can figure out how to get the ball to him more efficiently.
Another disappointing tight end is Green Bay’s Jermichael Finley (GB, 7). Finley who is still ranked in the top 10 so far has had three games of single digit fantasy points, and most of his points on the season come from his 3-touchdown performance in week 3. Since then Finley hasn’t been able to find the end zone and has only gained more than 28-yard mark once. Finley is falling, but he is still a guy you need to keep on your roster as his talent is way to high to release. If you can make a deal sending Finley off at a decent price I would do it right away. For now, rising tight ends like the ones I mentioned above should start above Finley.
Some surprising players who are falling down the pecking order include Matt Ryan’s top wide out Roddy White (ATL, 13) who only recorded 2 catches for 21 yards in week 6. While that may be an aberration it is something to keep an eye on if Ryan doesn’t improve. Running back committees like those in Carolina and Washington are unbelievably frustrating. DeAngelo Williams (CAR, 34), Ryan Torain (WSH, 54), Tim Hightower (WSH, 28) and Roy Helu (WSH, 51) shouldn’t even see playing time. Jonathan Stewart (CAR, 19) should be the only back in either system getting significant time on your fantasy teams as a deep league or flex option. Watch wide outs Santana Moss (WSH, 31), Victor Cruz (NYG, 17), and Denarius Moore (OAK, 45), carefully. Moss has less than 40 yards receiving in two straight weeks, Cruz looks to have fallen to the 3rd option, and maybe even the 4th with the emergence of Ballard in New York, and Moore has only one catch for 9 yards in the previous two games.
Prominent Players to Watch: Cedric Benson (CIN, 20) found the end zone for the second time this season and only the third time in his last 10 games. Benson is still a low end RB2 but if he can score more often then he has, he could creep up quickly.
Cam Newton (CAR, 2) had a relatively poor outing against an extremely poor secondary this week. We may have been spoiled with his previous weeks but 237 yards and 0 scores through the air is not something we want to see repeatedly.
Wide out Brandon Lloyd (STL, 60) was dealt to the Rams this week, where familiar coach Josh McDaniels is running the offense. There shouldn’t be much of a learning curve here but keep a close eye on the situation.
Wide outs, Anquan Boldin (BAL, 30), James Jones (GB, 37), and Jordy Nelson (GB, 12) are rising, but there needs to be more consistent play out of them to be considered high end WR2.
Injured halfbacks are opening doors for others to step up and show what they have. DeMarco Murray (DAL, 76), Montario Hardesty (CLE, 46) are getting their opportunities sooner rather than later as Felix Jones (DAL, ankle) and Peyton HIllis (CLE, hamstring, Madden curse) may be sidelined for a few weeks. While those guys are getting time because of others getting hurt Rashard Mendenhall (PIT, 26) is coming back from injury extremely strong, he had a great game against a pretty good run defense this weekend and should continue that trend going forward.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.comYou can follow Justin on twitter @PeckinRotoX From 10am to 12pm every Sunday I will be answering your fantasy football questions on twitter!
Rankings and stats are as of Week 6 games.
Number in parenthesis is fantasy rank at players position. (October 1, 2011 - Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Peckin' Order, Justin Mandaro, Week 7, Players on the Rise, Players on the Decline
|
RSS Feed