2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Marion Barber (credits below)
If you’re reading this, it’s safe to assume you made your fantasy football playoffs.  Congratulations.  Since you’re in the playoffs, you probably have a pretty solid team.  But if you’ve been spot starting QBs and TEs all year, or if you’re looking for a flex play or a sneaky defense, here are the best waiver wire options.

The Free Market

Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, 8.5% owned)
Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, 7.9% owned)
Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, 5.5% owned)

Both Moore and Ponder have been entirely adequate over their last six games.  Each guy has recorded double digit fantasy points in five of those six games, and Moore is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game while Ponder is averaging 12.3.  Unfortunately, neither draws a particularly favorable matchup this week as Miami faces Philadelphia and Minnesota travels to Detroit.

But Grossman has the enviable New England matchup.  Since reclaiming the starting job from John Beck four games ago, Grossman has two games of four fantasy points, and he averaged twenty fantasy points between the other two.  So hit or miss seems to be an accurate description of what you can expect to get from Grossman.  With this matchup, “hit” is more likely than “miss.”  New England is going to throw four touchdowns to Gronkowski, so you know Washington will being playing catch up against a secondary that allowed Dan Orlovsky to score 20 fantasy points last week.

Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, 17.3% owned)

Barber is pretty obviously the #1 pickup this week with Matt Forte injured.  And although you probably shouldn’t expect too much out of Barber, he’s a no-brainer pickup if you’re looking for a flex play this week.  Since the majority of your league mates are out of the running now, a #7 waiver claim or later might be enough to get you Barber.

Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 10.2% owned)
Brad Smith (Buffalo Bills, 0.2% owned)
Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks, 0.2% owned)

First of all, Williams is clearly the best widely available receiver for your flex spot this week.  He’s been good over his last six games, averaging almost eight fantasy points per game, and he has a great matchup against the Saints this week.  If you need a receiver/flex option and Williams is available, he’s your man.

But if he’s already owned, Smith and Tate might be nice plays this week.  Smith has 70+ yards in each of the last two weeks, and he led the Bills with ten targets last week.  Buffalo faces an average pass defense in San Diego this week.  Tate has been in on more of Seattle’s snaps recently, and he has a touchdown in each of the last two games.  If you need to play Tate, you’re either desperate or in a deep league, but he could cash in again versus St. Louis this week.

Demaryius Thomas (1.8% owned) and Andre Roberts (1.3% owned) had big games last week, but Thomas has a tough matchup against the Bears, and you’ll have to forgive me for not buying in on Andre Roberts.  If you’re reaching this far down, Smith and Tate are more worth your flier attention.

Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins, 2.2% owned)
Tony Scheffler (Detroit Lions, 2.1% owned)

Assuming the Ballards, Chandlers, Greshams and Celeks of the world are all owned in your league (all owned between 20-30%), then there’s not much left in the way of waiver wire tight end plays.  But unless you own one of the four or five studs at the position, you’re basically just hoping to hit a touchdown in your TE slot each week.  Fasano and Scheffler both play teams that are middle-of-the-pack against TEs, so maybe one of them gets in the end zone and gets you eight or nine fantasy points.  Fasano is probably the preferred choice since he’s the only TE Miami has and Scheffler has to compete with Brandon Pettigrew.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST (16% owned)
Denver Broncos D/ST (11.5% owned)
Arizona Cardinals D/ST (4.5% owned)

Seattle is a great pickup this week for your D/ST spot.  On the year, they’re 11th among defenses in fantasy points.  They’re also coming off a 17 point week 13 performance.  In week 11 they also scored 17 fantasy points when they faced the St. Louis Rams.  As scheduling would have it, Seattle faces that same Rams team this week, the Rams team who allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Since week 9, Denver has averaged just over 10 fantasy points per game.  This week they face the Caleb-Hanie led Bears and could very well come up with another ten fantasy points.  And in the event Denver and Seattle are both owned (highly unlikely), you could feel comfortable rolling with Arizona’s defensive unit.  They’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points per game over their last six, and this week they face a San Francisco team who is really good but whose strength isn’t necessarily its offense.

 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes comprehension of income tax material was as easy as identifying good defensive spot starts.  You can tell him to quit bitching and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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Victor Cruz (credits below)
Three things that made me go “WTF?” while looking over stats Monday night.

1. Mark Sanchez has been a top ten fantasy quarterback through 12 weeks.

WTF?  That’s right.  The 20th QB off the board in ESPN leagues this year has been outscored in fantasy points by only nine other quarterbacks.  When you look at all of the Sanchize’s numbers you notice that his completion percentage and quarterback rating have improved in each of the last two seasons, and his 2010/2011 interception rate has been a very acceptable and regression-proof 2.7%

Admittedly, a lot of his success is the result of a pretty easy schedule.  In the last seven weeks he has gone up against a team that currently ranks in the top ten of most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.  But assuming his accuracy continues to improve and his turnover woes don’t trend back in the direction of his rookie season, Sanchez could keep this up. 

Instead of being an afterthought again, next year Sanchez should be drafted in that 8th/9th round range where people who elect not to get an elite QB grab a couple of guys to rotate in and out of their lineup based on the matchup.  I can already imagine how much fun I’ll have choosing between Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez each week.

2. From Week 7 on Michael Bush is second among RBs in fantasy points per game.

WTF?  Since Darren McFadden went down we’ve watched Bush fill his shoes more than adequately.  But did you know only Arian Foster has been better than Bush in that time frame?

I considered the idea that Bush’s career path might play out a lot like Michael Turner’s when he leaves Oakland as free agent to be the starter elsewhere next season.  But Bush will be two years older and will have roughly 400 more carries (aka at least a full season’s load) under his belt than when Turner became the lead back in Atlanta.  Bush could certainly have some short-term success with his new team, but it’s probably not reasonable to expect him to become a top 30 pick for the next three to four years.

3. Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, and Laurent Robinson have been the league’s best WRs since week 8.

WTF?  On a per game basis, those three have scored more fantasy points than anyone other receivers.  What do they all have in common?  They are all on teams with a strong quarterback and a big, physical, deep threat WR1 lined up opposite them.  Moreover, they’ve all outscored their respective WR1’s for the season. 

Another guy who fits this description is Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown.  He’s been mentioned in this space extensively so I won’t go on too much about him, but he should be owned in every league.

Young guys like Vincent Brown, Brandon LaFell, and Titus Young are all worth watching as they play on teams with that combo of a strong quarterback and a deep threat WR1.  All three are on my 2012 sleeper radar.

By the way, Miles Austin is questionable at best this week, and Robinson is still available in over 40% of ESPN standard leagues.  If for some reason he’s still out there in your league and you’re playing for a playoff spot, he’s a must add and a must start.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who thinks the Miami D is a strong play for those looking for a D to help them get in the playoffs.  For a team that struggles against the pass and shuts down the run, Carson Palmer and Michael Bush is something they can handle.  You can tell him how dumb that call is and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 27, 2011 - Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images North America)
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Toby Gerhart (credits below)
If it was up to me, we wouldn’t play fantasy football with team defenses in our lineups. 

There is too much luck involved with the game as it is, and defenses only compound that problem.  It’s almost impossible to predict who the top defenses will be from year to year.  For example, the three defenses that separated themselves from the pack last year are 10th (Packers), 16th (Steelers), and 22nd (Patriots) in fantasy points so far this year. 

It just seems dumb to have everyone throwing a proverbial dart at the wall with their late round defense pick.

Despite all that, an overwhelming majority of leagues play with defenses.  As a result, you have to hope your 15th/16th round pick hits a bullseye or else you’re playing the waiver wire for the rest of the year. 

If you are stuck choosing defenses week to week and fighting for a playoff spot, here are a couple defenses available in most leagues that could be useful in the last two weeks of the fantasy regular season.

Washington Redskins D/ST (20.4% owned)

In the last two installments of this article, we examined the strength of schedule of opposing quarterbacks and running games that teams have faced.  In both cases, the Redskins were among the group found to have faced a significantly superior group of opponents.  Despite having faced a strong set of QBs and RBs, the Redskins are right in the middle of the pack at 17th among defenses in fantasy points.

Aside from a rough schedule, they’ve had some other bad luck.  The ‘Skins have forced 21 fumbles (2nd most in the league) but have recovered only six.  Coaches will often say their team has “a nose for the ball” or some crap like that, but which team ends up recovering a fumble is basically a 50-50 proposition.  Teams can’t consistently recover fumbles at a rate much higher or lower than 50%.  Needless to say, don’t expect the ‘Skins 28% recovery rate to keep up.  If they keep forcing the other team to put the ball on the ground, they’ll start picking them up.

Like a good Cab with a nice steak, a good defense needs to be paired with a nice matchup in order to have a perfect combination.  The Redskins happen to get a great matchup in each of the final two weeks of the regular season in the Seahawks and the Jets who allow the third and fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses, respectively.  With those matchups, Washington should be a top ten fantasy defense for the next two weeks.

Miami Dolphins D/ST (3.6% owned)

Like Washington, Miami has been severely unlucky when it comes to recovering forced fumbles.  Miami hasn’t forced quite as many (13), but their recovery rate is the lowest in the league at 15%.  They’re bound to recover some fumbles in the final six weeks.  And after coming up with only two interceptions in their first eight games, the Dolphins have four picks in the last two weeks. 

Those interceptions have helped Miami put together an excellent three weeks on defense.  They’ve allowed less than ten points in each of the last three weeks and have averaged about 13 fantasy points per game over that span.

The problem with Miami is that they’re not very good against the pass as they allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  However, they’re excellent against the run as they allow the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  Therefore, Miami is a matchup play. 

The Thanksgiving Day matchup against Dallas isn’t a favorable one, but the Oakland matchup in the final week of the fantasy regular season plays right into Miami’s strength.  They can handle Oakland’s formidable running game, and Carson Palmer is the type of QB Miami can deal with.

The Free Market

As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.

Greg Little (Cleveland Browns, 10.4% owned)
Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 9.5% owned)
Jabar Gaffney (Washington Redskins, 25.5% owned)

Although Torrey Smith (43.7% owned) and Jerome Simpson (33% owned) will be hot pickups this week, this trio of receivers is also worth a look. 

Little is the only receiver with at least 60 targets who has yet to catch a touchdown.  That simply can’t keep up, and Little will find the end zone soon if he keeps getting that many looks. 

Speaking of looks, Williams got eleven targets on Sunday but only caught one pass.  Williams’ catch rate for the year of 44% isn’t necessarily high, but we can expect him to bring in more than one ball the next time he gets double digit targets.

And finally, Gaffney is a much more useful fantasy receiver with Rex Grossman at QB for the Redskins.  Gaffney has put up yardage pretty consistently, so he won’t kill you in weeks where he doesn’t find the end zone

Kevin Smith (Detroit Lions, 0.7% owned)
Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts, 6.8% owned)

As you can tell from his ownership percentage, not a lot of people thought Kevin Smith was capable of going off for 38 FANTASY POINTS (!!!!) this week.  There is no doubt he will be the most added player this week, but you ought to be careful about how much FAAB money you spend on him.  Who knows if he can consistently produce, especially considering his epic game came against the Panthers who allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs by a healthy margin.

Speaking of those RB-friendly Panthers, Brown will face them this week.  Considering that the Panthers have been torn up by such mediocre backs as Smith, Beanie Wells, James Starks, and, I hate to say it, Chris Johnson, it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that a Colts back can put up some fantasy points against them.  I say Brown is that back, but I put in the call on Maurice Morris last week instead of Smith, so you can expect Delone Carter or worse, Joseph Addai, to kill it on Sunday.

Toby Gerhart (Minnesota Vikings, 1.7% owned)

Atlanta is a tough matchup for running backs, so Gerhart probably isn’t more than a flex play if Peterson is out this week.  And if Peterson misses a few weeks, Denver and Detroit aren’t easy to run on either.  Any guy getting a lot of work is worth a pickup, but temper expectations on Gerhart.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who asks you to help control the pet population by having your pets spayed and neutered and to control the team defense population by choosing not to use them if you are a league manager.  You can tell him don't want a piece of him... you want the whole thing and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(November 6, 2010 - Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)
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Ndamukong Suh (credits below)
The San Francisco 49ers run defense:

· Has not allowed a rushing touchdown;
· Gives up the fewest yards per game on the ground;
· Is one of two teams to have given up only one 20+ yard run; and
· Allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs by a healthy margin.

So the Niners have the best run defense in football, right? 

(channeling my inner Corso)

Not so fast, my friend!  Teams that San Fran has faced this year average 105.2 rushing yards per game.  That’s the lowest number in the league which means the “best” run defense has also faced the easiest schedule.  The teams that have given up the second (Baltimore) and third (Houston) fewest points to running backs have also faced a significantly inferior group of runners.

So, if the Niners aren’t the best run D in the league, which team is?

How about the Detroit Lions?  The Lions have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs despite having the fifth toughest schedule.  Despite having faced guys like Peterson, Forte, Gore, and Turner, the Lions have only allowed three touchdowns to running backs this season.  The Lions will see a lot of running back committees the rest of the way like Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego.  Those backs splitting time should be left on your bench when facing this strong Lions run defense.

It’s interesting to note that the Green Bay Packers have faced the toughest slate of opposing backs but have managed to give up the 12th fewest fantasy points to them.  This seems to back up the idea that backs will lose carries when playing Green Bay as their teams throw in excess while playing from behind.  As further proof, teams facing Green Bay only attempt about 22 runs per game when facing the Packers.  That’s the third lowest mark in the league.  Good backs on bad teams will struggle against Green Bay.  For example, LeGarrette Blount is a big time stay away this week when Green Bay travels to Tampa.

Teams whose runs defenses may not be as bad as they look are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City.  Those teams have allowed the fourth, fifth, and sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs but also have faced the fourth, fifth, and sixth toughest RB schedules.  On the other hand, teams with run defenses that are just as bad as they look include St. Louis, Carolina, and Indianapolis.  Carolina and Indy allow the most fantasy points to RBs and figure to continue to do so.  Maurice Morris could be a sneaky play against the Panthers this week.

The Free Market

As always, here are a few players owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues that might be worth a pickup.

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, 31.5% owned)
Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 13% owned)

This pair of receivers will be hot pickups this week as Moore recorded 24 fantasy points and Robinson put up an almost equally excellent 19 in week 9.  The problem with both of these guys is that playing time is no guarantee.  If and when Miles Austin returns, Robinson’s role will decrease.  And God only knows what the Oakland WR depth chart will look like week to week. 

Robinson is probably the better add because he should retain some value when Austin comes back, but either of these next two receivers might be better adds.

Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.6% owned)
Earl Bennett (Chicago Bears, 10.1% owned)

As was pointed out in this space last week, Doucet has been on a little roll of completely respectable “averageness.”  He extended his streak of games with between seven and nine fantasy points to five weeks with eight points against the Eagles this week.  Said it before and will say it again, Doucet could be a top 30 WR the rest of the way.  John Skelton and all. 

Meanwhile, Bennett has amassed 23 fantasy points in the two weeks since he returned from injury and has been the Bears leading receiver in yardage and receptions both weeks.

Carson Palmer (Oakland Raiders, 25.8% owned)
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals, 24.6% owned)

Are you a Matt Schaub owner?  If so, one of these two gingery quarterbacks is likely your best bet.  Which one to pick up largely depends on what you need.  If you need a QB to help you get into the playoffs, Palmer is your guy as he faces Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami in the final weeks of fantasy football’s regular season.  All three of these teams rank among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.  If you’ve got a playoff spot pretty well in hand, Dalton is your man.  He gets St. Louis and Arizona, both of whom also rank among the top ten in most points allowed to quarter backs, in weeks 15 and 16.

Maurice Morris (Detroit Lions, 12.4% owned)
Donald Brown (Indianapolis colts, 11% owned)

Morris was mentioned above as a sneaky play against the terrible Carolina run defense this week.  He’s still widely available, so add him if you’re looking for help with guys like Foster, Sproles, and Mendenhall on bye.

Also on bye this week is Brown.  However, when Indy returns from the bye, they’ll face that same terrible Carolina run defense.  Because he’s on bye, Brown’s ownership percentage may not jump too much this week.  Go ahead and grab him now while he’s off everyone’s radar.

Kendall Hunter (San Francisco 49ers, 5.4% owned)

Keep an eye on Gore’s injury situation as Hunter is one of the more potentially explosive handcuffs in the league.  If Gore can’t go, Hunter would be a nice play.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad Lee Corso is the only former college football coach he channels.  You can tell him it’s too soon and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(October 22, 2011 - Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)
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Roy Helu (credits below)
Once upon a time a fantasy player could gain an edge with just a little extra research.  But with the proliferation of the internet and fantasy sites galore, everyone has the same access to all the information.  And there’s a lot of it.  As an obligatory reference to the running title of this article, the stock market experiences the same phenomena as every piece of information is available to every person, and it’s all figured in to the price of a stock.

There really is no such thing as a sleeper anymore, and nothing is a secret.  Well, almost nothing.  In the blogosphere era, you can still gain an edge with a little extra research, but you have to dig deeper. 

Everyone in your league can click on the ‘points against’ tab on the ESPN fantasy page and find out which teams give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.  But what you won’t find is some sort of strength of schedule number telling you the quality of opposing position players that a team has faced.  It may seem like certain teams shut down opposing QBs while others give up fantasy points in bunches.  But things are not always as they seem.  For example...

Three of the five teams that have allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs are among the group of six teams that has faced a significantly inferior group of opposing quarterbacks (and I’ll leave out the description of how they were determined so I don’t have to use the words "standard deviation" in an article).

The Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Houston Texans have allowed the 3rd, 4th, and 5th fewest fantasy points on average to opposing QBs, respectively.  However, they have also had the 3th, 4th, and 5th easiest schedules of opposing quarterbacks. 

Check out the murderer’s row Cincinnati has faced: McCoy, Orton, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Gabbert, Painter, Tavaris, and Hasselbeck.  Not one of those guys ranks among the top 12 in passing yards this year.

Cleveland’s lineup is just as bad.  Aside from facing Matt Schaub this week and Matt Hasselbeck in week 4, the Browns haven’t faced a quarterback who ranks among the top 20 in passing yards in any of their other six games.

This information doesn’t mean these pass defenses are bad.  Cleveland held Schaub to eight points this week, Cincinnati held Fitzpatrick to seven points in week 4, and Houston held Roethlisberger to seven points in week 4 as well.  But the only time one of these teams faced a top six fantasy scoring QB, Drew Brees lit up Houston for 26 points.

What this information does mean is that these three passing defenses are no reason to bench an otherwise start-worthy QB. 

On the flip side, six teams have faced a significantly superior group of quarterbacks.  For the Miami Dolphins, this means that things aren’t as bad as they seem.  And they seem pretty bad considering the Fins allow the second most fantasy points on average to opposing QBs. 

It also means that the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, and Atlanta Falcons are probably in the middle of the pack against QBs as opposed to among the bottom third against them.

But the most important discovery to come out of this little experiment is how good the Jacksonville Jaguars are against QBs.  Jacksonville is currently 11th best against the QB despite having the third toughest slate of opposing QBs.  Those QBs are:

Hasselbeck, Sanchez, Newton, Brees, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Schaub.

Every single one of those QBs averages at least 12 fantasy points per game.  Brees and Newton are 1-2 in passing yards.  Newton leads all QBs in total yardage.

Imagine what they’ll do in their final 8 games.  Borderline start-worthy quarterbacks like Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck, and Matt Ryan all face Jacksonville down the stretch.  All three should probably be left on your bench in those weeks.  Even top ten guys like Rivers and Schaub may have to be on your bench when they face the Jags.

To recap: Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Houston are nothing to be scared of.  Miami isn’t quite the choice matchup it seems to be. And you should let Conrad Murray administer anesthesia to you before you start a middling quarterback against the Jaguars.

Next week, we’ll take a look at how teams really fare against opposing running backs.

The Free Market

Quickly, a few guys owned in less than 40% of ESPN leagues who need to be added.

Roy Helu (Washington Redskins, 16% owned) Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, 2.2% owned)

Helu touched the ball 24 times on Sunday, 22 more times than any other Washington back.  Robinson managed to have some success as Dallas’ WR3 but will now serve as their WR2 until Miles Austin returns from injury.  They’ll be the hot new pickups this week.  Just remember Helu still has crazy Mike Shanahan as his coach, and Robinson’s value is tied to Austin staying off the field.

Though this pair will likely be the most added RB/WR players this week, the most added player should be...

ANTONIO BROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Pittsburgh Steelers, only 31.1% owned!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Seriously, what are people waiting for?  He leads Pittsburgh receivers in targets (by 10), and he’s 7th in the league in targets.  He also leads the team in redzone targets and has double digit fantasy points in three straight games.  He faces the previously discussed not-so-great-after-all pass defense of Cleveland and Cincinnati a total of four times over his last seven games.  What are you waiting for?  Grab him NOW!

Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 33.8% owned)

If someone in your league bailed on Hardesty and you’re thin at RB, he’s probably worth adding.  For whatever reason, whether it is injury, Madden Curse or personal differences between Peyton Hillis and the Browns, it’s no guarantee that we see much of Hillis on the field for the remainder of the season.  Chris Ogbonnaya clearly sucks (13 for 28 with a lost fumble last week), so Hardesty is probably going to be the guy when he gets healthy.

Steve Breaston (Kansas City Chiefs, 39.1% owned)Early Doucet (Arizona Cardinals, 18.8% owned)

Breaston is averaging 8.6 fantasy points over his last six games while Breaston is averaging 8.2 over his last four.  If they can keep that kind of production up, they’ll be top 20 receivers the rest of the way.  It’s not likely they’ll continue to produce at quite that level, but it’s certainly within reason that these two are top 30 receivers from here on out.



Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who really misses using double entendres like he did in his weekly baseball article, The Rubber.  So how about this for a fantasy football name?  Schaub on my Kolb.  You can tell him someone else already came up with that and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.


(October 1, 2011 - Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)  
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Phillip Rivers (credits below)
Normally my articles start off with some sort of introduction that includes a haphazard analogy or anecdote in an attempt to link fantasy sports with a line of thinking from the real world.  But I spent a lot of time this week researching trade targets based on the strength of fantasy playoff schedules and either positive or negative regression that can be expected in the touchdown category.  As a result, I’ve compiled a fair amount of information, so let’s get straight to the names and numbers.

All discussions of playoff schedules assume a Week 14 start to the fantasy playoffs.  If your playoffs start a week earlier, see the attached spreadsheet to check the strength of Week 13 matchups.

Quarterbacks

Buy

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)

Rivers is the most obvious candidate among QBs for positive regression in the second half of the season.  Aside from non-fantasy options Sam Bradford and Matt Moore, Rivers has the highest yards per touchdown thrown number (298 yards for each TD pass).  To say it another way, Rivers is 9th in passing yards but only 23rd in TDs.  What this means is that Rivers is producing yardage like a top ten quarterback but has had bad luck in the TD department.  Yardage is something more within the control of the player, so as long as Rivers keeps putting up yardage, the TDs will come.

Rivers has also been unlucky in another category that is largely out of the quarterback’s hands, interception rate.  His 4.2% rate is the fourth highest in the league.  The league average this year is 2.7% and Rivers’ rate will certainly regress toward that mean.  Rivers is still a top ten quarterback.  He’s just been very unlucky.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)

Fitzy may be due for a minor amount of touchdown regression, but ultimately it’s nothing to be concerned about.  On the other hand, his matchups during the fantasy playoffs are drool-worthy.  After a tough matchup in week 14 against San Diego, Buffalo finishes the season with games against the three teams that have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s in Denver, Miami, and New England.

Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Last year, Freeman finished 7th among quarterbacks.  This year, he currently sits 14th.  Last year, Freeman was the beneficiary of an ultra-lucky 1.3% interception rate.  This year, his fortune has turned as his INT% is currently 3.7%.  Freeman is 15th in passing yards and averages three fantasy points on the ground per game.  If his luck is simply neutral going forward, he has the skill set to be a top ten QB in the second half.

Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)

Like Rivers and Freeman, Cassel has been unlucky with the interceptions.  And like Fitzpatrick, he has a very easy schedule in weeks 15-17.  He shouldn’t cost much if you’re looking for a reliable backup.

Sell

Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

It’s understandable if you don’t think you’d be able to pull the trigger on dealing Stafford.  After all, he is 4th among QBs in fantasy points ahead of guys like Tom Brady and Michael Vick.  But there are reasons to at least consider moving Stafford.  He has the lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and has an unsustainably low interception rate of 1.33%.  His fantasy playoff schedule is rather favorable, and he’ll still be a top ten QB from here on out, but he’s not likely to continue as a top five QB, and you should part ways with him if you can get top five value back.

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

If you thought it would be crazy to trade away Stafford, I can imagine how crazy you must think it would be to deal Rodgers, but hear me out.  He has the 2nd lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and his interception rate is even lower than Stafford’s (1.25%).  His playoff schedule isn’t tough, but it’s also not one of the most favorable.  Moreover, three of his last five games are in Green Bay, and his two road games are in cities that could also exhibit poor weather conditions (New York, Kansas City).

If you can afford to lose Rodgers because you drafted a viable backup like Stafford, Cam Newton, or even Eli Manning or Fitzpatrick, think seriously about trading Rodgers because of the ransom you could get in return.  No matter how good he is, he will experience some level of regression, and his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.

Running Backs

Buy

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Shonn Greene (New York Jets)
Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos)

There’s no point in discussing each back individually because the analysis is the same for all three.  Each back should see an increase in TD totals in the second half because they have high carry per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers.  All that means is that these guys are getting the ball a lot and doing something productive when they get it.  As long as that continues, they’ll eventually start finding the end zone more frequently.

MJD and Greene also have the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules of any backs that aren’t a part of a backfield committee. McGahee’s schedule isn’t quite as favorable, but he will see middling run defenses in three of the four fantasy playoff weeks.

Sell

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)
BenJarvis Green-Ellis (New England Patriots)
Mike Tolbert (San Diego Chargers)

As you might have guessed given the previous analysis, each of the backs is due for regression in their touchdown totals.  They all have low carries per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers, which means their touchdown totals are likely to be lower in the second half.

They also have rough schedules during the fantasy playoffs.  McCoy and Tolbert will only see one defense in the last four weeks of the season that ranks among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.  And Green-Ellis will only face one defense that is currently below average in that category.

Wide Receivers

Buy

Brandon Marshall (Miami Dolphins)

Marshall is 12th in receiving yards, 9th in receptions, and 7th in targets yet he only has one touchdown.  That can’t last.  With that amount of work, the touchdowns will come.  In the fantasy playoffs, he will face a soft Buffalo secondary in Week 15 and an even softer New England secondary in Week 16.  However, he has to face Philly’s corners in Week 14 and will visit Revis Island in the final week of the season. 

All in all, you have to take the good with the bad with Marshall.  Positive regression is on its way, but it may be mitigated somewhat by Matt Moore throwing him the ball.  A couple matchups are awesome, but a couple matchups are brutal.  Considering that it wouldn’t cost a ton to get Marshall right now, the good probably outweighs the bad.

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Before his first career touchdown last week, Brown had the highest number of receiving yards without recording a touchdown catch.  Even though he finally got in the end zone, there’s more regression to come in the way of touchdowns.

There’s more to like about Brown.  He leads Pittsburgh in targets this season (yes, including Mike Wallace).  And the playoff schedule isn’t as bad for Brown as it will be for Wallace.  Both should feast on St. Louis’ secondary in Week 16, but they play Cleveland twice in the final four weeks.  Fortunately for Brown, Joe Haden can only cover one man.  He’ll undoubtedly focus on Wallace leaving Brown with second-tier coverage.

Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Steve Johnson (Buffalo Bills)

Because Freeman and Fitzpatrick are listed as in the QB “buy” section, it’s reasonable to assume that Williams and Johnson would be guys to target as well.  Johnson isn’t in line for a bump in his touchdown total, but he’s not in line for a decline in that category either.  His schedule during the playoffs is good just like Fitzpatrick’s, obviously, so he’s worth considering as a trade target.

Williams is a potential bargain both because Freeman’s play should improve and because, aside from Reggie Wayne, he is the most targeted receiver in the league (63) with only one touchdown or less.  It’s just not feasible that he will continue to get that many looks and not get in the end zone.

Sell

A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)

Green is 18th in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and 14th in targets.  There is nothing wrong with those numbers, but they aren’t exactly numbers you would expect to go along with receiver with the sixth highest fantasy point total.  Driving Green’s borderline top five fantasy receiver success is his touchdown total (tied for 3rd among WRs).  He should see a dip in touchdowns going forward and should slip outside the top ten among receivers by season’s end.

Victor Cruz (New York Giants)

Cruz is catching a touchdown pass once out of every seven of his receptions.  Mario Manningham is catching a touchdown pass once out of every 24 of his receptions.  That distribution of touchdowns is going to even out making Manningham the New York receiver you want to own behind Hakeem Nicks.  And you might not want to own either of them during the playoffs as the Giants won’t face a single defense that is below average in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers in weeks 14-17.

Tight Ends

Buy

Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Winslow is the only tight end with at least 30 receptions who doesn’t have more than one touchdown catch.  He also has two really sweet matchups to start the fantasy playoffs.  He’ll face Jacksonville and Dallas who allow the 2nd and 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)

During the playoffs, Gonzalez won’t face a single defense that is currently in the top half of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends.  Carolina (16th), Jacksonville (4th), New Orleans (12th), and Tampa Bay (5th) is about the best set of matchups you could hope for.

Add

Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, 8.6% owned)
Jake Ballard (New York Giants, 12.1% owned)

Both of these tight ends have been pretty damn good recently.  Ballard is averaging almost nine points per game over his last four, and Celek has double digit points in consecutive weeks.  Moreover, they have playoff schedules that are just about as good as Winslow’s and Gonzalez’s.  If you’re someone who doesn’t own one of the 5-6 safe tight ends, you should be able to add these two off your wire, and they should pay dividends in the last few weeks of the year.

Sell

Jermichael Finley

Because Finley has been somewhat of a disappointment, he may be a tough player to sell at this point.  However, there might be someone in your league who just looks at his point total and doesn’t realize he has recorded single digit points in six of seven games.  What’s worse is that it’s not like he has been unlucky.  In fact, he’s lucky that he has four touchdowns when he only has 25 receptions.

There are just too many options in Green Bay with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones.  Moreover, we’ve already discussed concerns that Rodgers’ production dips a little, and it should also be mentioned that James Starks’ touchdown total is not commensurate with his yardage production and the number of carries he has received.  Without a killer schedule in the playoffs, there really isn’t a single factor pointing to a turnaround for Finley.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who actually feels like he provided some legitimately useful information this week.  You can thank him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(October 18, 2009 - Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 9

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Jamaal Charles (credits below)
When your dad offers to take you to Game 5 of the World Series on a Monday night, you forego your normal routine of, and loose obligation to, write your weekly MarketWatch article.  As a result, MarketWatch is coming out on Thursday instead of Tuesday which means there’s really no point in discussing free agent pickups as almost every league’s waiver process is complete.  Instead, let’s use this relative midpoint of most fantasy league regular seasons to examine whether certain draft day strategies have been successful so far in 2011.

 Stars and Scrubs

In case you’re not familiar with the strategy that is “Stars and Scrubs,” the basic idea is that you spend a substantial portion of your auction budget on elite players, spend very little on mid-level players, and fill out your roster with a bunch of guys for a buck or two.  It’s hard to say exactly where the cut off for elite “stars” was this year, but the top 30 in average draft position seems reasonable.  So, if someone spent 75%+ on four, maybe five, top 30 players, how does their team look heading into Week 8?

The answer for that isn’t really an answer is: it depends on which elite players they got.  Jamaal Charles is out for the year.  Arian Foster scored three points in the first three weeks as he dealt with a hamstring issue.  Andre Johnson, Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, Miles Austin, and Antonio Gates have all missed time due to injury.  Even though they’ve been on the field, some “stars” have severely disappointed.  Chris Johnson may still be holding out.  Rashard Mendenhall has single digit fantasy points in five of seven weeks.  Philip Rivers is 17th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. DeAngelo Williams looks finished.

If someone navigated the minefield and ended up with something like Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, and Hakeem Nicks (might’ve cost something around $160), then they’re probably sitting pretty.  But avoiding the mines is difficult and often out of the fantasy owner’s control.  “Stars and Scrubs” might be better termed “Boom or Bust.” 

The other thing to consider is how much more devastating injuries and poor performance will be during the bye weeks and how difficult it may be to field a solid lineup without any depth during the bye weeks.  In the end, “Stars and Scrubs” is far too risky a strategy.  The chance that your fantasy season could effectively be over in the first few weeks isn’t a chance worth taking.

Wait on Kickers and Defense

Is there any reason to take a defense or a kicker before the last two rounds (rounds 15 and 16)?
To recap, four defenses drafted as top ten defenses are currently top ten fantasy defenses, and only five of the current top ten fantasy defenses were drafted as such.  There is a lot of volatility at the position from year to year, and it’s somewhat unpredictable.  

Moreover, the week to week success of a defense is more dependent on opponent than any offensive position.  Because only 10-12 defenses are usually drafted in standard leagues, owners have the opportunity to take advantage of favorable matchups each week.  Theoretically, and likely practically, fantasy owners can piece together a point total from the D/ST slot that equals that of a top five defense by taking a defense in the last two rounds and using the options on the wire.

Because you can get respectable production out of your defense with one of your last two picks, there is no need to waste a late mid-round pick that could potentially land you a position player like AJ Green, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham, Willis McGahee, Cam Newton, Darren Sproles, or Aaron Hernandez.  Those lottery tickets are far more valuable than making sure you get the Eagles defense.

As for kickers, only 17 fantasy points separate the #1 kicker from the #10 kicker.  By comparison, 72 points separate the #1 running back from the #25 running back (I’m assuming 5 RB’s are used in the flex spot), and 76 points separate the #1 wide receiver from the #25 wide receiver.  In other words, kickers are all relatively the same.  No point in using anything other than your last pick on one.

Almost everyone already knows there is no point in taking kickers and defenses before the last two rounds, but the evidence 2011 has presented reinforces that notion.

Wait on QB/TE or get an elite QB/TE?

There are two rationales for waiting on QB’s and TE’s.  

The first is the perception that, like kickers, there is not a significant gap between the #1 and #10 at those positions.  However, that perception is just plain false.  70 points separate Aaron Rodgers from Mark Sanchez and 50 points separate Jimmy Graham from Brandon Pettigrew.  There is a clear delineation between the elite and everyone else at these two positions.

The second is the idea that if you lose your starting QB or TE to injury or have to bench them because of poor performance, you will have had to the chance to draft a respectable backup in the later rounds, or there will be options on the wire with which to replace them.  This rationale holds up better than the first.  Cam Newton (12th round), Mark Sanchez (13th round), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (14th round) range from a must-start quarterback to a surprisingly decent fantasy quarterback to a completely respectable quarterback.  Moreover, Tim Tebow went undrafted and should be owned, and probably started, in every ten-team league.

As for tight ends, these current top ten tight ends were not among the first ten tight ends drafted: Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis, and Dustin Keller.  Not to mention Aaron Hernandez, who might be a top five TE option going forward, was drafted behind almost all of those guys just listed.

It would appear, at least this year, that waiting on QB’s and TE’s could easily have paid huge dividends assuming you wisely used the early picks you saved for RB’s and WR’s.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who would like to be reminded to update this article so that he can post it again during draft season next year.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.


(September 17, 2011 - Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 8
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Mario Manningham (credits below)
Unless you watch every play of a football game, you won’t see how every player impacted the game.  Even when you do watch every play, it’s impossible to watch all 22 guys.  The impact of a nickel back bumping a receiver off his route and disrupting the play or the impact of a second-level block by the left guard inevitably go unnoticed all too frequently.  And because football box scores are limited to things like yardage, reception and carries, and tackles, the impact of these things is never recorded and essentially ignored and/or forgotten.

Because that is the nature of the football beast, you might have missed just how close Mario Manningham (New York Giants) came to having a monster day.  The box score shows Manningham finished the day with five catches for 56 yards on eight targets.  But what the box score doesn’t tell you is that Manningham had two touchdown receptions overturned by replay and another pass thrown his way that likely would have been a touchdown catch had pass interference not been called on his defender.

One thing the box score does show us is that Manningham led the Giants in targets and doubled up his competition for the #2 receiver spot, Victor Cruz, in that category.  Manningham’s 900+ yards and nine touchdowns in 2010 are evidence that he is a better receiver than Cruz.  As a result, Manningham should continue to see more opportunity than Cruz.  With the opportunity and skill all Manningham needs is some good luck.  Hell, all he may need is the absence of bad luck.  Unless you’re a fan of the Cubs, Clippers or any Cleveland team, bad luck never lasts.  Manningham should see some positive regression in the luck category sometime soon and is an excellent buy-low candidate. 

The Free Market

QB Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, 40.5% owned)

Maybe it’s because Denver had a bye last week, but Tebow only saw his ownership percentage increase by 38% in the week after he replaced Kyle Orton in the 2nd half of Denver’s game against San Diego.  That was a second half in which Tebow managed to accumulate 16 fantasy points.  Sixteen!  In one half!  If Tebow wasn’t added in your league, don’t let him slip through your fingers again this week.  Denver faces Miami in Week 7 and the Dolphins are terrible against the QB.  Tebow should have a big game and could very well be owned in virtually all leagues this time next week.

RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, 15.4% owned)

Thanks to injuries to Jerome Harrison and James Davis, Peyton Hillis grabbed the lead back role in Cleveland early in the 2010 season.  With Hillis’ health in question, Hardesty could potentially pull a ‘Hillis’ on Hillis himself. 

Hillis is a better back than Harrison and Davis were, so whenever it is that he’s back on the field he’s likely to put a significant hit on any fantasy value Hardesty may obtain.  But for the time being Hardesty is a guy getting all the carries.  That alone has value, but this isn’t a situation where the new #1 back is someone we know to be inadequate or washed up.  Hardesty is a second year back but essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with an injury.  Who knows?  Maybe Hardesty is a legitimate NFL runner.  You should add him and hope that he is while hoping that Hillis stays off the field.

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys, 3.3% owned)

Murray is in a situation similar to Hardesty as Felix Jones is out 2-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain.  Also like Hardesty, Murray is a young player.  However, Murray’s immediate future doesn’t look quite as bright as Murray will have some competition with Tashard Choice for carries and will have to deal with a bad offensive line.  If you’re desperate for RB help or just have a bench spot to play with on your roster, Murray is worth speculatively adding. 

WR Jerome Simpson (Cincinnati Bengals, 36.2% owned)

Simpson has topped 100 yards receiving yards twice this season, both times against defenses that rank in the top 5 of most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (Denver and Indianapolis).  So Simpson is a mainly a matchup play.  Unfortunately, the Bengals have two games remaining against Baltimore and two games remaining against Pittsburgh as well as two other unfavorable matchups against Tennessee and Cleveland.  However, there are a few good matchups left on Cincinnati’s slate, one of which comes two weeks from now when they come off their bye to face Seattle. 

Simpson has yet to score a touchdown so some positive regression in that category is to be expected at some point.  For those of you that will be without Roddy White, Greg Jennings or Santonio Holmes in week 8, maybe you should grab Simpson heading into his bye this week and use him as a fill in next week.

WR Jabar Gaffney (Washington Redskins, 7.6% owned)

How about this for consistency?  Gaffney has between 54 and 62 yards receiving in each of his five games.  He has been good for 5-6 fantasy points per week and recorded 11 fantasy points when he caught a touchdown pass in week 1.  During the bye weeks you could do much worse than a guy who is almost certain to give you 5-6 points and potentially double digits if he gets in the end zone.

TE Fred Davis (Washington Redskins, 47.3% owned)

Although you can’t catch every detail when watching a football game, that doesn’t mean things can’t stand out.  And Fred Davis stood out on Sunday.  Although Philadelphia isn’t the greatest against opposing tight ends, Davis did what a good tight end should do against a team like that.  He had six catches for an impressive 95 yards.  He also led the team in targets with 11 (Gaffney was 2nd with 10).  His ownership percentage should be, and will be, much higher than the 50% mark.

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles, 6.6% owned)

After almost 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in 2009, Celek was poised to be an excellent young tight end for years to come.  But then Michael Vick came along and the results were never the same for Celek.  However, he did show signs of life late in 2010.  Aside from two games against the Cowboys where he failed to record a catch, Celek had a decent last six weeks of the season with games of 11, 5, 13, and 9 fantasy points.  That success did not really carry over to this season as he had only five fantasy points in the first five games, but he had 42 yards and a touchdown catch this week for a ten fantasy point day.  There’s a good chance Sunday was an aberration, but Celek is at least worth monitoring after Philly’s bye this week.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes his friends sometimes had bye weekends from their wives.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.


(September 18, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 7
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Tim Tebow (credits below)
TINSTAAFL.  That is the only thing I remember from my high school economics class.  Mr. Warner, my extremely nice and extremely bald teacher, had that all caps acronym written on the dry erase board the first day of class.  It stands for “There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.” 

Seeing as how this phrase could be considered as much common sense as it could an economic lesson, one could argue that I learned absolutely nothing in Mr. Warner’s class.  However, Mr. Warner was the commissioner of the first fantasy league I ever played in, and I consider the role he played in developing my fantasy sports addiction to be far more beneficial than anything he could have taught me about the invisible hand and whatnot.

Today I’m going to be your economics teacher.  Or at least I’m going to analogize fantasy football to an economic theory in order to teach you something about fantasy football.  I hope, but don’t necessarily expect, to be more successful than ole’ Mr. Warner was.

Sell High
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) states the idea that financial markets are “informationally efficient”.  In other words, the market knows everything that you do, so it’s impossible to consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns. 

There are three different forms of the EMH.  The relevant form to the analogy that I promise I’ll make soon is weak-form efficiency.  In weak-form efficiency, future prices cannot be predicted by analyzing prices from the past. Excess returns cannot be earned in the long run by using investment strategies based on historical share prices or other historical data.

In fantasy football, touchdowns are the equivalent of historical share prices and historical data.  Using touchdowns already scored as a prediction of future success is a mistake.  Touchdowns are too variable.  Getting in the end zone is too dependent on factors out of the player’s control like situation and play calling to name a few.  Not to mention that scoring plays make up a very small sample size.  The better approach is to look at how frequently a player is used and how consistently they are able to put up yardage. 

By that logic, LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) is a prime sell high candidate.  McCoy’s seven total touchdowns account for 45% of his fantasy production this year.  That’s one of the highest percentages of any RB/WR along with guys like Calvin Johnson (who I recommended selling high on in last week’s article) Beanie Wells, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert.  It’s virtually impossible that McCoy will be able to maintain this TD rate.  As a result, McCoy’s value is as high as it will be.  If you can swap him for a legitimate top ten player, pull the trigger.  Or deal him for a package of players in order to add depth or address any weaknesses your team may have.

The Free Market
I’m not exactly sure how it took me six weeks to realize that I should do a waiver wire pick up section called The Free Market.  Seems kind of obvious.  Oh well, better late than never.  Here are some waiver wire guys to target as we head toward week 6.

Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, 2.6% owned)
Whether Tebow is the QB that gives the Broncos the best chance to win is a discussion for other forums.  And I’m sure the national media will discuss it ad nauseam.  The relevant discussion for this forum is whether Tebow is a QB who gives your fantasy team the chance to win.

The answer to that inquiry is unequivocally yes.  In the final three games of the 2010 season, Tebow racked up game totals of 22, 22, and 27 points as Denver’s starting QB.  His ability to make plays with his legs enables him to rack up the fantasy points.  If you don’t own one of the elite seven QB’s (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo, Stafford), then you should be using your #1 waiver priority to get Tebow.

Jackie Battle (Kansas City Chiefs, 0.7% owned)
Matt Cassel handed the ball off to a running back 33 times last week, and 19 of those handoffs were to Battle.  What’s more is that Battle did something with his touches.  He racked up 119 yards on the ground for an average of over six yards per carry, and he added a couple of receptions for 21 yards.  All the scoring was done by Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston, but if Battle continues to get the ball at that rate, he’ll find the end zone soon enough.  Maybe Battle is just the flavor of the week, but the opportunity is there for him to be a consistent producer.  He’s definitely worth adding in ten-team leagues.

Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.1% owned)
Dwyer is a much more speculative add than Battle, but for those of you in deeper leagues or those desperate for help at the running back position, Dwyer is worth a look.  He topped 100 yards rushing with only 11 carries this week, and if Mendenhall misses anymore time, Dwyer might be the guy you want to own over Isaac Redman.

Jacoby Jones (Houston Texans, 15.4% owned)
Jones was a popular pickup last week after Andre Johnson went down with a hamstring injury.  Unfortunately, he was unable to capitalize on his increased role in the offense as he hauled in just one pass for nine yards.  However, Jones was targeted a team high eleven times.  According to ProFootballFocus.com, Jones entered the game against Oakland with 70% career catch rate on balls thrown his way.  So the 9% catch rate this week was out of character for Jones and an aberration. 

Houston faces Baltimore and Tennessee the next two weeks which aren’t ideal matchups, but if Johnson misses more time, Jones will continue to be targeted fairly heavily.  Odds are he won’t lay such a complete egg again.

Damian Williams (Tennessee Titans, 0.0% owned)
Since Kenny Britt went down for the season, the pecking order of Tennessee’s receiving corp has been muddled to say the least.  It’s pretty much been Nate Washington and everyone else.  But week 5 brought some clarity to the situation. 

Again, according to ProFootballFocus.com, Williams played 62 snaps on Sunday, more than any other Tennessee receiver, including Washington.  Williams also led the team in targets with eleven and hauled in six of them for 66 yards and a score.  It’s possible that Williams isn’t just the next best option past Washington but the best option himself.

Who knows if this latest status quo will be maintained going forward, but it’s not often that you see a potential #1 receiver that is literally not owned in any leagues.

Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans, 7.9% owned)
Speaking of Tennessee pass catchers, Cook followed up his 93 yards and a score in week 4 with four more catches and 59 yards in week 5.  He trailed only Williams in targets and recorded his highest snap total of the season with 57. 

Cook seems to be starting to display some of that talent everyone was talking about during the preseason.  The combination of that skill and all the opportunity he has been getting lately could potentially make Cook a top ten tight end option at some point this season.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who took most of that economic jargon off Wikipedia.  Thanks Wikipedia.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(October 8, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 6
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Ryan Torain (credits below)
Ever been in a bar with your buddies on a Tuesday night?  Maybe you’re playing pool or throwing darts or just sitting around putting down pitchers faster that Tony Romo can blow a 24 point lead.  Whatever it is you’re doing, you’re probably looking around the bar at other groups of guys doing pretty much the same thing.  What you won’t see when you take a look around the bar is a lot of women.

But you will see a few.  There are always a couple girlfriends scattered around the place who have passed up an evening in watching Watch What Happens: Live to go out with their boyfriends and his frat boy buddies.  There also might be a cute waitress or two.  And every guy in the place will spend more time looking at a cute waitress than they will at whatever random college football game is on that particular Tuesday night.

This situation is a classic example of supply and demand.  When there aren’t a lot of women at the bar, the ones that are there are in high demand. 

Now let’s say fantasy owners go down to the Waiver Wire Watering Hole.  If the only players in the place are a handful of running backs that are getting some carries, you can bet those backs are going to get a more-than-marginal amount of attention.  Guys like Stevan Ridley (3.6%), Ryan Torain (57.6%), Isaac Redman (2.3%), and Kendall Hunter (12.0%) are going to get some love this week.

What you have to be careful of is something I like to call LOOS, the Lack of Options Syndrome.  If there aren’t many ladies in the bar, the blonde across the room goes from the six she was during the day to an easy seven, maybe seven-and-a-half.  You know how they say the camera adds ten pounds?  Well a bar short on girls takes away ten pounds from the heftier of the two girls sitting at the table in the corner.

The LOOS running back of the week is definitely Torain.  When listed with those other three backs, the Washington runner starts to look pretty attractive.  What with his 135 yards and a score and all.  But Torain really isn’t as cute as he looks.  He didn’t have a single carry in the first three weeks.  What’s more, he’s got a crazy father.  If you picked up Torain off the wire and went back to his place, his daddy (aka Mike Shanahan) would take Torain’s hand from yours and send you to his other child’s room, Tim Hightower. 

So while Torain looks attractive, I’d rather pick up one of the other available backs in Ridley, Redman, or Hunter.  Especially when you consider how much more Torain should go for than the other three in this week’s free agent auctions.  Of the other three, I want to go home with Ridley.  Redman and Hunter might be good for a little fling, but they both have boyfriends (Rashard Mendenhall and Frank Gore, respectively).  Ridley is young (a rookie), sexy (averaging over eight YPC), and has yet to do anything that would make it seem he’s not as awesome as he appears.

Now let’s say you take all the running backs out of the WWWH and replace them with tight ends.  In that case, it’s more like a weekend night out at the bar.  A lot of people have, and are there with, their significant others (like Witten, Finley, Graham, Gronkowski, Davis, Gates, Daniels), and everyone who doesn’t have someone has plenty of options. 

Brandon Pettigrew is still available in about 1/3 of leagues.  He’s averaging over ten yards per reception and almost eight targets per game.  Even better, he’s bringing in just over 70% of his targets for catches.  He has yet to score, but Calvin Johnson isn’t going to score two touchdowns every week.(*)  When the scores start coming his way, Pettigrew may become one of the best tight end options week in and week out.

(*) It sounds crazy to say you should trade away the best outside receiver in football (tip of the cap to slot man Wes Welker), but Johnson’s value will never be higher.  He simply can’t continue to score touchdowns at anything close to his current pace.  If I could get an elite RB (which would include Peterson, Rice, McFadden, and maybe Forte for me), I’d trade Megatron in a heartbeat.  If I didn’t have a top end QB, I’d do it for Rodgers, Brady, or maybe even Brees, too.  And if I could get someone to overpay with a package of players, I’d obviously pull the trigger on that deal as well.

Other tight ends like Ed Dickson (10.5%), Lance Kendricks (1.2%), Jared Cook (3.6%), and Jermaine Gresham (12.8%) are also potentially viable options.  With Danny Amendola out in St. Louis, we’ve been waiting to see who would emerge as Sam Bradford’s preferred target.  While we still don’t have a definitive answer, Kendricks led the Rams in targets in Week 4 with 9.  Likewise, Cook may be the primary benefactor of Kenny Britt’s injury as he led the Titans in targets in week 4 and racked up 93 yards and a score.  Finally, Gresham trailed only AJ Green in targets this week for Cincinnati, and he displayed how talented an athlete he is with a nice performance of 70 yards and a score.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go talk to that blonde across the room.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who just barely managed to work in the words supply and demand in this “market” themed article.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(October 1, 2011 - Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Brett Talley, Week 5
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