2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Drew Brees (credits below)
This is it, ladies and gents – the last Monday Night Football game of 2011. I’m hoping that you’re all reading this with your fantasy playoff matchups sewn-up, but if you’re like me…you’ve got a lot riding on tonight’s matchup.

I’ll get to the fantasy implications in a moment, but let’s take our usual look at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today (there’s still a week to go, obviously, so some of these are based on tiebreakers right now):

AFC
First-Round Byes: New England and Baltimore

Wild Card Matchups: Pittsburgh at Denver, Cincinnati at Houston

NFC
First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco

Wild Card Matchups: Detroit at New York Giants, Atlanta at New Orleans

Before we get to tonight’s NFC South slugfest, there was a lot of action around the league over the holiday weekend to look at first:

I’ll have to clear my eggnog hangover to remember back to Thursday, but I seem to remember the Colts attempting to ruin their chance to get Andrew Luck while the Texans seemed intent on backing into the playoffs.

Early-game action on Saturday saw the Patriots roaring back in the 2nd-half to nip the Dolphins, the Bills doing their best to ruin Tim Tebow’s playoff chances, Andy Dalton leading the Bengals over the Cardinals while all of Cincinnati didn’t care, and the Titans keeping their playoff chances alive with a win over the lowly Jaguars. Elsewhere, the Jets failed to back-up Rex Ryan’s bluster in losing to the Giants, the Raiders blocking a field goal to edge the Chiefs and keep a playoff berth realistic, and the Steelers shut-out the Rams despite missing Big Ben.

Other Saturday results included the Vikings surprising the Redskins in D.C., the Ravens sleepwalking to a close win over the Browns, Cam Newton single-handedly dominating the Buccaneers, the 49ers squeaking to a road-win over the Seahawks, and the Lions finally making it back to the playoffs with a win over the Chargers. Oh yea…and the Cowboys lost to the Eagles while Tony Romo’s early thumb injury ruined a lot of fantasy playoff matchups (hopefully not yours).

Tonight’s game doesn’t have a ton of playoff implications other than seeding, but there’s a lot of other things at-stake (including many fantasy championships). The Falcons technically still have a chance to overtake the Saints in the NFC South and Drew Brees is
this close to breaking Dan Marino’s single-season passing yardage record, but that’s not why you’re here so let’s get to the fantasy football part of this story.

In short, this one is mostly likely going to come down to the passing game (sorry Michael Turner owners). Both teams have decent rushing offenses, but they both also have somewhat decent rushing
defenses as well. On the same token, both teams have borderline great passing offenses while also boasting some of the league’s lower-ranked pass defenses (especially New Orleans).

Drew Brees has been on fire, as of late, and hasn’t scored less than 20 fantasy points since Week 9. Matt Ryan, however, has been sneakily good lately and put up 31 and 20 fantasy points in his last two games. With Brees only 305 yards shy of breaking Dan Marino’s record, and with this game on the fast turf of the Superdome…I’m envisioning a shoot-out. What does that mean for those of us in our fantasy football semi-finals or finals? In short, it means good things for the owners of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and maybe even Darren Sproles and Lance Moore. Like I said above, I’m hoping you’re all reading this with a win in the bag, but if not…best of luck to you all!

And finally, looking into my crystal ball for tonight…I’m going to predict a Saints victory with a final score of 34-31.

As always, let’s end this week with some of top fantasy-related news from this week:

- For those of you in keeper leagues, it’s going to be a long off-season of monitoring
Adrian Peterson’s status as he recovers from his ACL/MCL tear. His status for the season opener in 2012 is in doubt and it’s probably a pretty risky proposition to keep him, as crazy as that sounds.

- What does that mean for this year? It means we should all go running to our waivers to see if
Toby Gerhart is available for a Week 17 matchup against the Bears.

Tony Romo’s bruised thumb proved not to be anything serious, so he should be fine for next week, but I’m still a little wary of starting him to be honest…

Thanks again for reading all season…I hope you’ve enjoyed reading these articles as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them! I’d also like to thank Alan and Evan of TheFantasyFix for having me…it’s been an absolute pleasure. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to you all!

Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411


(December 17, 2011 - Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images North America)

 
 
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Marshawn Lynch (credits below)
Alright, folks, be honest. You’re here because you have a Seahawk or Ram player deciding your fantasy football playoff matchup, and not because you actually care about the game, right? That’s what I thought…  

With 49ers/Steelers and Saints/Falcons on the horizon, this is our last week of lackluster Monday Night Football matchups so stick with me! Both of tonight’s teams have a better chance at a top 10 pick than they do a playoff spot, but there’s still plenty of interest in tonight’s game for all of us fantasy nerds. Before we get to that, however, let’s do a quick Week 14 reset and take a look at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today (take these with a grain of salt since some are based on tiebreakers):

AFC
First-Round Byes: Houston and Baltimore

Wild Card Matchups: Pittsburgh at Denver, New York Jets at New England

NFC
First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco
Wild Card Matchups: Atlanta at New York Giants, Detroit at New Orleans

Before we get to tonight’s NFC show-stopper, let’s take our weekly trip around the league to see what happened yesterday (Since it was five days ago, I’ll save you the details from Thursday other than to say that no one should be starting any
Cleveland Browns but pretty much everyone should be starting Antonio Brown):

Early-game action had T.J. Yates carrying the Texans over the Bengals, Chris Johnson reverting back to CJ0K form as the Titans lost to the Saints, the Lions squeaking by over the Vikings (there’s an ABP out for Calvin Johnon’s hot-streak), and the Eagles starting their season way too late in beating Miami. Elsewhere, the Jets cost Todd Hailey his job in a romp over the Chiefs, Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a close one over the Panthers, Indianapolis fell to 0-13 in losing to the Ravens, and Maurice Jones-Drew went absolutely hog-wild in the Jaguars’ 41-14 win over Tampa Bay.

There’s an elephant in the room when it comes to the late-games, but first: the 49ers started to lose their grasp on a 1st-round bye with a loss to the lowly Cardinals, the Packers made the Raiders wish there was a Mercy Rule, the Chargers kept their playoff hopes on life-support in beating the Bills, and the Giants took control over the NFC East in beating the Cowboys on the strength of yet another Dan Bailey icing (this time not by his own coach’s doing).

And lastly…this is starting to feel like Groundhog’s Day writing this every week, but Tebow did it AGAIN! With Belichick and Brady coming to town…is this the week that the magic pixie dust runs out?

As I mentioned above, neither of the teams in tonight’s game have any type of playoff ramifications to worry about, and if you look at each team’s quarterback situation, it’s not hard to see why. Former #1 pick, Sam Bradford, has all the talent in the world but has had trouble staying upright (though it looks like he’ll play tonight) while the Seahawks seem intent on running their ship aground with either Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst at the helm. I think the Rams owe Bradford another season with some actual receiving weapons at his disposal, but a top-10 pick might do wonders for this Seahawks squad.

Both teams come into tonight’s game in the bottom-half of the league in the major offensive and defensive categories (outside of rushing yards allowed for Seattle and passing yards allowed for St. Louis). In looking at those numbers, it’s not very hard to see why both of these teams are pretty darn close to a barren wasteland for fantasy owners. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd have been staples for fantasy owners this year, but both have been struggling as of late (Jackson hasn’t had double-digit points for four weeks) and are no longer the safe plays they were earlier in the season. On the Seattle side of the ball, the aforementioned Tavaris Jackson has pretty much sapped any fantasy value from his banged-up receiving corps and Marshawn Lynch is really the only Seahawk worth owning right now (outside of their defense for tonight’s matchup).

Fantasy-wise, I could definitely see Steven Jackson struggling against Seattle’s 11th-ranked run defense – especially if Seattle goes up early. I was a little down on Brandon Lloyd all week with rumors that Kellen Clemens or Tom Brandstater would be throwing him the ball, but I think his owners can breathe a little easier with Bradford likely to play. For Seattle, I think anyone relying on Doug Baldwin or Golden Tate might be in for a bit of a letdown against the Rams’ 8th-ranked pass defense (not to mention the fact that Tavaris Jackson is the one delivering them the ball). On the bright side for the Seahawks…their defense has a great matchup and should deliver double-digit returns for those that took a risk on them. And of course, Marshawn Lynch has a juicy matchup against St. Louis 32-ranked run defense and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t continue each and every one of these streaks: 14+ fantasy points in his last five games, 100+ yards in four of his last five games, six touchdowns in his last six games.

And finally, looking into my crystal ball for tonight…I’m going to predict a Seahawks victory to the tune of 24-13.

As always, let’s end this week with some of top fantasy-related news from Sunday:

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Greg Jennings left the Packers-Raiders game with what is being reported as an MCL injury. His timetable is still unknown, but James Jones and maybe even Donald Driver look like the ones to own if Jennings misses any time.

-      
DeMarco Murray suffered a season-ended ankle fracture in the Cowboy’s loss Sunday Night. It was nice while it lasted, but it’s time we all drop Murray and go crying back to Felix Jones.

-      
Matt Hasselbeck left the Titan’s game with a calf injury and was very ably replaced by rookie, Jake Locker. Locker is a VERY risky start for the fantasy playoffs, but he does have a nice matchup against the Colts next week and I think he’s worth using over about a 1/3 of QB’s in the NFL right now.

-       I think I might’ve mistakenly been sent back to 2008 somehow, but I seem to remember seeing
Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant both rack up two rushing touchdowns yesterday. Not sure I’d bank on either going forward, but hopefully some of you benefitted from those resurgences.

-       I hate to over-think things and play matchups for the fantasy football playoffs, but I think it’s time to start looking at each and every QB/WR that goes up against the Patriots for the next three weeks. As such, make sure you keep tabs on
Demaryius Thomas - who now has three touchdowns in his last three games, and has a VERY nice home matchup coming up against New England.

Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411


(November 30, 2011 - Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)

 
 
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Maurice Jones-Drew (credits below)
After last week’s Saints-Giants fantasy bonanza, I think we’re in for a little bit of a letdown with the Chargers and Jaguars on-tap for tonight. As I was saying last week, we need to get through tonight’s game (and then next week’s Seahawks/Rams contest) before we finish with two exciting Monday Night Football matchups: Steelers/49ers and Saints/Falcons. That being said, any game can be interesting fantasy-wise and I promise I’ll work extra hard to keep you awake this week as we preview a matchup featuring 3-8 and 4-7 teams.

With three-quarters of the season in the books, it’s definitely not too early to take a look at the playoffs. If the season ended today, here’s what we’d be looking at (take these with a grain of salt since some are based on tiebreakers):

AFC
First-Round Byes: New England and Baltimore

Wild Card Matchups: Cincinnati at Houston, Pittsburgh at Denver

NFC
First-Round Byes: Green Bay and San Francisco

Wild Card Matchups: Chicago at Dallas, Atlanta at New Orleans

Before we get to tonight’s “blockbuster”, let’s take our usual look at what else happened around the league (I won’t get into Thursday’s game too much other than to say that Marshawn Lynch needs to be in your lineup except for Week 16 vs. San Francisco, and that DeSean Jackson shouldn’t be in your starting lineup if you want any shot at winning your league):

Let’s just get this out of the way now…Tim Tebow did it AGAIN! Ok, now that I’ve got the obligatory Tebow reference in here…other early-game action saw the Chris Johnson-led Titans surprisingly staying in playoff position by beating the slumping Bills, the Dolphins dismantling the Raiders (who gave up first in the AFC West to Denver), the Steelers asserting their AFC North dominance over the Bengals, and Cam Newton going hog-wild over the Josh Freeman-less Buccaneers. The Jets took advantage of 3 Shonn Greene TDs to take down the Redskins, Arian Foster led the Texans to a win over the Falcons, and the Tyler Palko led the Chiefs over Caleb Hanie and the Bears in a battle for crappy QB supremacy.

In the late games on Sunday…the Packers sweated-out a close one over the Giants to keep their undefeated season alive, the Ravens beat the Browns on the strength of 206 Ray Rice rushing yards, the Cardinals benefitted from Jason Garrett brain-fart to beat the Cowboys, and the 49ers barely had to break a sweat in shutting-out the Rams. And in the Sunday Night game, the Saints marched on and handed Detroit its fifth loss in its last seven games.

Despite the Chargers still being in the playoff hunt (mathematically, at least), tonight’s MNF is much better-suited to fantasy owners than it is to casual NFL fans. The Jaguars are 3-8 and just fired their coach, while the Chargers are 4-7 and will likely find themselves looking for a new coach at the end of the season, as well.

The Chargers have made a living off of starting slow and finishing strong but after starting 4-1 this year, San Diego is now looking to avoid their seventh straight loss. A large reason for that (as his owners can attest to) is that Philip Rivers has more interceptions (17) than he does touchdown passes (16) this year. It also doesn’t help when your best offensive players are either wildly inconsistent (Vincent Jackson) or can’t stay healthy (Ryan Mathews, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd)…

San Diego boasts the league’s 6th-best pass offense and 7th-best pass defense, but they also have the league’s 18th-ranked rushing offense and 26th-ranked rushing defense. While that might mean great things for Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates…it also means great things for someone who I was shocked to see is second in the NFL in rushing yards. Know who it is?

I think we can all agree (including my wife) that I spend WAY too much time watching football, so I’m not sure how I missed this, but Maurice Jones-Drew is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,040! Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s only taken five carries to the house this year but as you saw above…the Chargers defense is ripe for the picking when it comes to giving up rushing yards. It’s a good thing for Jaguar’s fans, too, because Blaine Gabbert amazingly only has 331 more passing yards than Jones-Drew does rushing yards (in case you’re wondering…that’s NOT good). After looking at those statistics, it’s not surprising that the Jaguars have ridden Jones-Drew in becoming the 12th-ranked rushing offense in the league but have the 32nd-ranked passing attack.

Outside of MJD, the Jaguars’ defense is really the focal-point of this team and should present a formidable challenge to the Chargers. The Jags come into this game ranked 3rd against the pass and 14th against the run. If they have
any chance of pulling another Ravens-style upset…they’re going to have to rely on Jones-Drew to eat-up a lot of clock while their defense tries to hold Rivers and Co. at bay.

Looking at this one fantasy-wise, I could see Jones-Drew having a big game tonight but other than him…there’s really no reason to own anyone else on the Jaguars unless you’re in a keeper league and trying to pull the equivalent of a “Suck for Luck” campaign. On the Chargers’ side of the ball…I envision Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert having a rough go of it tonight, while Rivers and his receiving targets put up some good numbers (and I’m not just saying that because my wife’s fantasy team needs Rivers and Gates to have a big night). One thing to note: Vincent Jackson only had three targets in the Chargers’ last game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a disappointing game tonight. All in all, I just don’t see how the Jaguars are able to keep up with the Chargers, and I’m predicting a score of 27-17, Chargers.

As usual, let’s wrap it up with some of top fantasy-related news from Sunday:

-       Matt Forte left the Bears game with what’s being reported as an MCL sprain. Sources have him missing 2-4 games, and if that’s the case, his owners are going to have to make other plans for their playoff matchups.

-       Speaking of other plans, Marion Barber is pretty much assured of being this week’s top waiver-wire add.

-       Andre Johnson had a nice game (finally!), but had to spoil things by re-aggravating the same hamstring that made him miss all that time. The Texans are hoping this isn’t anything serious, but I think it’s time we all make arrangements for being without Johnson for our fantasy football playoffs.

-       James Starks sprained his ankle in Green Bay’s victory and was replaced by an ineffective Ryan Grant. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Brandon Saine is going to end up being more valuable than either of those guys.

Written by Trader X exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Trader X is a top-50 gamer on a major fantasy sports website, and is the founder of www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411


(November 26, 2011 - Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America)