2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Bull: Fred Taylor – RB, New England Patriots For those of you keeping track, the Pats started the season with a five headed running back committee. Now, because of trade and injury, it’s down to three. Considering that Sammy Morris is, for all intents and purposes, the full back (only having one carry in two weeks) it then leaves us with Fred Taylor and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Neither one of them is what you call a number one fantasy back. Heck, as long as they are both splitting touches on a team that would much rather throw than run; you’re better off having them as your flex than as your number two. Taylor got less touches than Green-Ellis did last week, but it was against a very good run defense and it was Taylor who actually broke off the longest run of the day, before it was negated on an illegal shift. In fact, with half the carries, he produced eight yards less on the ground. I would look for Taylor to get the majority of the yards the rest of the way (barring the annual Fred Taylor Hamstring or groin injury), and Green-Ellis probably picking up the scraps. Projection: Consider Taylor a safe play at RB2 for this week against the Bills at home, 16 carries for 82 yards and a TD. Bear: Brandon Jacobs – RB, New York Giants I touched on this in week one with my Ahmad Bradshaw Bull, but man oh man, am I looking good now. Granted, Bradshaw hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, but Brandon Jacobs is in the dreaded Coughlin Doghouse. Take a closer look at the numbers though, and you realize that Jacobs hasn’t been good in over a year. His last 100 yard game came in Week 10 of 2008 against the Eagles. He hasn’t rushed for two TDs in a game since 2008 either. Equally important is that he’s a very big man, who doesn’t run with the power he did a few years ago. He’s taken a lot of hits, but now more and more on the goal line he tries to tiptoe around the end, rather than ram it home for fantasy owners. Just as disturbing for Giants fans are the reports of how unhappy Jacobs is; and regardless of his clear the air meeting with Coach and GM, its not exactly ideal to have your backup RB complaining that he’s not the starter. Projection: Jacobs had a meeting with Giants Brass this week to find out why he lost his starting job. Fantasy owners from last year can probably tell him why he was benched. It’s called diminishing returns. Going against Tennessee look for 13 carries for 42 yards and a charity TD. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “Lets go eat a god damn snack” – Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Fred Taylor, Brandon Jacobs, New England Patriots, New York Giants Add Comment  Just like the stock market, players can burn you, kick you to the curb, take your money, spit on you, call you dirty names, make you watch crappy girly movies and so much more. OR players can make you stinking dirty rich. The kind of rich where you wipe your butt with $100 bills. The kind of rich where you wear those 80's sunglasses and drive a corvette. The kind of rich that WINS YOU CHAMPIONSHIPS! Bull Market Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots Yes Welker is far from a waiver wire sleeper. Welker is a guy who is coming off a serious knee injury last year but even after last week’s performance some owners may still have a little uncertainty. Point being, your time to make a trade for him is quickly running out. Anyway, with NE playing the NYJ this week, and Randy Moss already booking his cruise to Revis Island, its gonna be Welker’s luck to get Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson. Football fans remember those two who were burned by every pass catcher on the Baltimore roster, including one particularly depressing moment where Cromartie was beaten deep down the field by Todd Heap. Considering Welker has thrashed the Jets to the tune of 461 yards on 38 catches, its not exactly a secret the Jets haven’t found an answer for Wes. I project six catches, 97 yards and one TD this week and for the season 98 catches for 1000 yards and eight TDs. Bear Market Nate Washingotn, WR, Tennessee Titans Look, I don’t hate Nate Washington. I don’t know the man. I do know that he is a tremendous deep threat and is a possible number one guy in Tennessee. Why the hate then? Because Nate Washington plays on a team that is going to run the ball as often as possible, and has two other mediocre WR (Justin Gage and Kenny Britt) who can double as the Titans best pass catcher. In fact, I will tell you flat out that by the end of the year, Washington will be the number two player on this team in big plays (Chris Johnson will need to shatter every bone in his leg to be not number one), but will be the number one guy in letting your team down if you are counting too heavily on him. The Titans are playing Pittsburgh this week, and it wasn’t a strong homecoming for Nate last year as he was held to one reception for eight yards. This year won’t be that bad. Pittsburgh will be preoccupied with stopping the run, so look for Nate to have three catches, 31 yards and zero trips to the end zone. For the season, you can expect 45 catches, 600 yards, and five TDs. Like I said, its not that he can’t have big weeks for you, it just probably won’t be consistent. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! – Bluto in Animal House Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Marketwatch, Stock, Wes Welker, New England Patriots, Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans, Chris Johnson, Randy Moss, Justin Gage, Kenny Britt, Darelle Revis, Kyle Wilson, Antonio Cromartie, Rick Marsh  Just like the stock market, players can burn you, kick you to the curb, take your money, spit on you, call you dirty names, make you watch crappy girly movies and so much more. OR players can make you stinking dirty rich. The kind of rich where you wipe your butt with $100 bills. The kind of rich where you wear those 80's sunglasses and drive a corvette. The kind of rich that WINS YOU CHAMPIONSHIPS! Bull Market Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants First things first, Bradshaw is the Giant running back you want. Last year he saw 184 touches and ended up just shy of the 1,000 yard mark from scrimmage. He has breakaway speed, which most fantasy teams crave, and with seven TDs, he’s capable of punching them in from the goal line. Why you should BUY As the starting back (Brandon Jacobs will still see a nice amount of playing time) Bradshaw is capable of 200-215 carries for 1,050-1,100 yards and eight TDs from the ground. If the Giants front five does its job, the scoring chances should increase, as Bradshaw can break one off on any carry. As for catching the ball, look for him to snag 30-35 balls in the air, for 370 yards and another two or three TDs. All of this from someone sharing the leather…not too shabby. Bear Market TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, Baltimore Ravens I like this move for Houshmandzadeh, but not for fantasy owners. Housh has gone from a cellar dweller in a weak NFC West to a team with a talented young QB, a superbly skilled RB, and pass catching weapons all around him. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Ravens have stocked up on three of the same person at WR. Derek Mason, Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh are all elite possession WR, but none is what you would consider a deep threat. Keep in mind that despite the additions of Boldin and Houshmandzadeh, the run game still comes first. Why you should SELL What the Ravens really needed to become an elite offensive unit is a home run threat that can keep a defense from jamming everyone at the line, and stretch them vertically. None of these three fit that role. Boldin has the most talent of the three WRs and will benefit from being the number one guy on the team. Remember though that Boldin hasn’t averaged more than 12.2 per catch since 2006, and the Cardinals didn’t seem to upset to see him go in the end. Derek Mason is as consistent a receiver you’re likely to find in the game. He’s someone who sneakily ranks among the top 25 in receptions and yards each year, but at age 36 he’s due for a step back. With that said, he still has the best chemistry with Flacco and will likely serve as a security blanket for the still young QB. As for Houshmandzadeh, there’s nothing to like really. At 32 years old, he’s on his third team in three years. There was no training camp to develop timing with Flacco and we have to assume that with a limited understanding of the playbook, there will be a lot of sitting early in the season. Projections: Mason – 60 catches, 750 yards, six TDs. Mason is worth a flex spot in your starting lineup or a reserve with potential. Boldin – 80 catches – 900 yards, eight TDs. Consider Boldin a nice number two receiver, but if there starts to be a WR run, don’t reach on him. Let someone else pay number one money for him. Houshmandzadeh – 50 catches, 600 yards and two trips to the end zone. Did you pick up on that I really don’t like Houshmandzadeh at all this year? Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, 'Au revoir, gopher'” – Bill Murray, Caddyshack Think Ahmad will shine in 2010? Was Houshmandzadeh even needed? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Projections, 2010, NFL, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Anquan Boldin, New York Giants, Baltimore Raves Gold Rush! With Kurt Warner’s retirement, it seems that the time is right for a new team to take over the NFC West, and what team has a better history of excellence than the San Francisco 49ers. In the past when the 49ers have been good, they have been All-Time good. They have had All-Time greats at QB, WR, and DB. They've had Pro Bowlers at RB, DT and DE. Guess what? This is one of those teams. Maybe no All-Time greats anywhere, but certainly Pro Bowl caliber players up and down this roster. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a closer look.  QUARTERBACK Alex Smith has been much maligned during his tenure in the Bay Area, and not without cause. He was a number one overall pick over local boy Aaron Rodgers (which is not exactly making the 49ers look good). After losing the trust of the old coaching staff, and being benched for Shaun Hill by the new regime, Smith finally won back his job through hard work and on the field production. Last year, playing 11 games he had his first season completing 60 percent of his passes. He also threw for 2,350 yards with 18 TDs and 12 INTs. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but played out over 16 games, its 3,408 yards with 26 TDs and 17 INTs. Those numbers maybe a bit high, but in a very mediocre NFC West, Smith can fatten up his stats against the Rams and Seahawks. Even when they were winning the NFC West, the Cardinals defense wasn’t exactly making people think of the ‘85 Bears. He has three talented targets in Vernon Davis at TE, Michael Crabtree at WR and Frank Gore coming out of the backfield. Let’s not forget Josh Morgan, who is poised to make the third year WR leap. With all these weapons Smith has the potential to be a tasty match-up QB in several weeks. Projections Smith was a very good college QB because he was able to accurately hit his weapons and keep the ball away from the defense (seven INTs in two years as a starter). Now with the weapons and the trust of his coaches, Smith seems poised to finally shed the label of “Bust” and become an efficient if unspectacular QB. If he stays healthy, 3,000 yards, 23 TDs and 12 INTs is well within his reach. Draft him as a backup and you can start him against Seattle twice, Kansas City, St. Louis twice, Tampa Bay and if he’s playing well for you, the Arizona games.  RUNNING BACK Since 2006 no running back has more yards from scrimmage than Frank Gore. That’s an important fact to think about. Every year at your draft, four or five running backs go off the board, and you’re left to think “Man, do I have to take Frank Gore here?” He’s the most underappreciated running back in the NFL and the reason is tangible. You know he’s going to miss at least one game. It’s likely to be two, plus parts of two others. He has only had one double-digit TD seasons. Since 2006, he’s not a lock to get you 100 yards rushing. He’s not even a lock to get you 80 yards rushing. In 14 games last year, Gore had five 100-yard games last year. He also had five games with fewer than 40 yards rushing. Per carries, he had five games with more than 20 carries and three games with single digit carries. This is the curse of Frank Gore. He’s going to carry your team for two weeks, and he’s going to lose two games for you. Brian Westbrook was signed recently to be Gore’s backup, which is like building a house out of sticks after the wolf blows down your house of straw. Westbrook is effectively Frank Gore Version 1.0. He catches the ball well, can kill a defense in space, and is never going to play a 16-game NFL season. He’s never rushed for double digit TDs, and only rushed twice for over 1,000 yards in ‘06 and ‘07. Anthony Dixon is the man who will benefit the most from the 49ers injury report. Drafted in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, Dixon is a bruising rusher who likely will get the majority of the goal line and short yardage carries. Projections It’s hard to state how the 49ers running backs will do with the delicate nature of their starting two runners. We do know Mike Singletary is committed to establishing the run, and behind a very good offensive line, the numbers could be impressive. I think if Frank Gore plays 15 games this year (with a better passing attack to take the pressure off of him) gets 1200 yards on the ground and maybe another 400 through the air. I still don’t think he will be punching it in the end zone unless he breaks ones from more than 15 yards. I expect eight rushing TDs and three more through the air. Brian Westbrook fans, have less to be excited about. I expect 300 rushing yards with a TD or two. Through the air he probably won’t get more than 150 yards and two TDs max. The guy I’m excited for is Anthony Dixon, who I feel will take the number two spot from Westbrook at some point during the season, and will be the featured goal line back. I think he is capable of 400 rushing yards and seven TDs, but don’t foresee him being a factor in the passing game.  WIDE RECEIVER Michael Crabtree was one of the most talked about draft picks in recent memory when the 49ers grabbed him in the 2009 NFL Draft, but a lengthy hold out had him missing the first five games of the season. Even with that, Crabtree managed 48 grabs in 11 games for 625 yards and two TDs. Now with a full training camp, and ready to play 16 games, Crabtree could be primed to explode. Lining up on the other side of him is Josh Morgan, a former sixth round pick, who has really become a reliable possession receiver in just two years. No longer burdened with the necessity to be a number one WR thanks to Crabtree, and arguably not even the second pass catching option with Vernon Davis at TE, Morgan should be able to improve on last years modest numbers. Ted Ginn Jr. figures to be the number three WR, which is great for him, as it’s finally where he should have been his whole career. After three mostly forgettable years with Miami, where he failed to live up to expectations (not entirely his fault as he shouldn’t have been picked where he was), he looks to be the home run threat that the 49ers have lacked since Terrell Owens left town. That being said, Ginn has some of the worst hands in the NFL and won’t be more than the fifth option on most pass plays for the 49ers. Jason Hill and Dominique Ziegler round out the receiving corps. Neither is expected to have any value this year. Projections Crabtree is a guy who has all the expectations in the world on him. He’s going to draw the best covers, and has the talent to beat them all. Expect a very solid season from the second year man, to the tune of 70 catches for 900 yards and seven TDs. He should make a fine number two WR on most fantasy teams. Josh Morgan will continue to be the possession receiver on a team that doesn’t love to throw the ball. Look for him to get his hands on 50 passes, grab 585 yards and two visits to the end zone. He’s worth a roster spot, but don’t grab him expecting big numbers. They won’t be there. Ted Ginn Jr. will be a factor on this team in the return game and as a deep threat. If you’re in a league that drafts individual KR/PR then Ginn has significantly more value than if your league doesn’t. In standard leagues, he is a gamble due to a conservative game plan and his bad hands. Still 30 catches for 470 yards and three long TDs sounds about right. Draft him in the deepest of deep leagues only or in leagues where return yards are counted. Hill and Ziegler have zero fantasy relevance at this time.  TIGHT END Vernon Davis is good. You know it. I know it. The NFL knows it. Last year he finally put it all together to fulfill the promise the former sixth overall pick flashed early in his career. 78 catches, 965 yards, 13 TDs. Three 100 yard games, and most importantly for a TE, he got into the end zone in 10 of 16 games. Is it fair to expect the same numbers from a guy who until last year, had severely underachieved throughout his career? Probably not, but you’re going to anyway, and I think you’re going to be surprised by the output. He’s the number one red zone receiving option for the Niners, and is also able to break things open with his agility and speed. Projections Davis will be one of the top TEs off the board, probably right after Gates and Clark. He is in their class. Look for 80 catches, 900 yards and 12 TDs. Anything less will be a severe letdown.  DEFENSE Last year, the Niners had one of the top defenses in the league, and did so in a fairly quiet fashion. Part of it is their schedule, as they were able to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, Lions, Jags and Bears. But guess what? This year they get to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, Derek Anderson led Cardinals, Bucs, Raiders, and Chiefs. Patrick Willis is one of the best ILB in the game and Takeo Spikes balances nicely in the run game. Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer anchor a good pass defense, while Michael Lewis and Dashon Goldson are tackling machines in the defensive backfield. Jason Smith is slowing down at the DE spot, but can still get to the QB. Projections Expect the Niners to be a good defense to grab. They have Ginn who gives them electrifying special teams play, a favorable schedule against some bad offenses, and an elite leader in Willis. There is nothing to stop them from being a top five defense. Don’t reach for them (or any defense), but target them, maybe right after a kicker run starts. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. "Everyone looks up to you. They listen to you. If you tell them to fight, they'll fight. But they need to be inspired. And let's face it "Superman"... the last time you really inspired anyone -- was when you were dead." - Batman Feeling the Gold Rush in 2010? Think they will help your squad? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Projections, 2010, NFL, San Francisco 49ers, Niners, Defense, Vernon Davis, Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Anthony Dixon, Patrick Willis, Josh Morgan Can an improved air attack, and a return to health on the ground power the Dolphins to the AFC East crown, and you to a fantasy title? To find out, I’m taking my talent to South Beach… A lot of big name players changed teams in the AFC East this off-season, but none brings a bigger impact to his new team than the Dolphins acquisition of Brandon Marshall. With a young quarterback on the cusp of stardom, two running backs capable of being a number one back on almost any other team, and now an electric number one leading a deep list of talented wide receivers, its not a stretch to imagine the Dolphins as the sleeper source for fantasy football.  QUARTERBACK Last year, Chad Henne took over at QB for the Dolphins after Chad Pennington went down with an injury. This year, firmly entrenched as the starter, Dolphins fans and fantasy football owners alike are expecting Henne to soar. Two things are going to make this happen. One is a shift from a run first offense (only two teams ran the ball more than the Dolphins last year), to a more balanced attack, likely with the all but complete elimination of the Wildcat from the playbook. The second thing is Brandon Marshall. Henne threw for nearly 3,000 yards in only 14 games last year, without a bonafide number one target (remember, Ted Ginn Jr, the number one big play threat for a good part of the season, was tied for fourth in football in passes dropped) and the expectation this year is for more, more, more. Now he has a target with three straight years of 100 catches and 1,000 yards. So what can we expect? Projections Last year Henne completed 60.8% of his passes. Expect that number to rise up to around 63%. His yards should see the biggest increase, going from 2,878 yards in 14 games, to likely 3,400 yards. His TD numbers should see a nice bump and I expect around 20 TDs, while his INT numbers from last year, sound about right to me at 14. So what is Chad Henne from a fantasy outlook? He’s on the cusp of being an every week starter, and will probably reach that expectation this year, but this is your last year you can grab him as a backup and watch first as he becomes a match up starter, then around week 11, he becomes your go to guy at the QB spot.  RUNNING BACK As I mentioned earlier, only the Jets and Panthers ran the ball more than the Dolphins, and no one scored more on the ground than Miami. This should mean that the RB situation is prime for a first round pick, right? Wrong. First of all, the changing of the offense will affect the running game (though I still expect to see Miami be a top 12 team in rushing attempts), but the days of relying on it as the everything for the team appears to be gone. Secondly, the question mark over which running back you want on your team is an important one. Ronnie Brown is coming off his second season ending surgery in three years. His career high for yards in a season is 1,008 way back in 2006. But, his nose for the end zone (31 TDs in 60 games), the explosion of the Wild Cat offense, the highlights that followed with Brown at QB, and the fact that both times he got hurt he was on his way to a very good season, has made Brown a fixture in the public mind. On the other hand, also lining up in the Miami backfield is Ricky Williams. Williams is a young 33 for a running back. Having missed what amounts to two years of football, and playing as a split time back in the last two, have kept the mileage down on a hard nose runner. Last year Williams’ yards per carry was phenomenal (he had 27 carries of more than 10 yards) and it was arguably his best since 2002. While injuries are the risk for Ronnie Brown, there is a risk for Ricky Williams too… his hands. He’s gotten better the past couple of years holding onto the ball as a part time player, but does have a tendency to put the ball on the ground. In leagues that penalize for fumbles, this could be crippling, because with a healthy Ronnie Brown, Williams will be fighting for carries. If he starts fumbling, those carries will disappear. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs will battle for the third running back position. Projections Ronnie Brown will be the starter but remains an injury risk. You should expect 13 games, 900 yards rushing with seven TDs. You can also hope for 24 receptions for 200 yards and another two TDs in the air. The ground to air game makes him a viable number two back in most formats. I don’t see reason to forecast Williams missing anytime to injury, so I think 16 games, 800 yards rushing and ten TDs – also making him a viable number two running back. Remember any week though, one of these two may be made irrelevant by the other. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs should only be drafted in the deepest of leagues, or if an injury strikes before your draft.  WIDE RECEIVER As I touched in the Chad Henne piece, Brandon Marshall is the most important piece to the Dolphin receiving core. The last time a Dolphin had over 1,000 yards was Chris Chambers way back in 2005. On top of that, they’ve never had a player with 100 receptions in their history. So to say that he brings a dynamic that the Dolphins haven’t seen in a while is a bit of an understatement. Complementing Marshall are Devone Bess and Brian Hartline. While neither is a household name, both hold value for different reasons. In Bess, the Dolphins have a WR with solid hands, who can move the chains and act as a possession man next to the elite Marshall. Consider him a poor man’s Wes Welker, and draft according, moving him up accordingly in PPR leagues, since he seems to be Henne’s security blanket. Brian Hartline is the projected starter opposite Marshall at this time, and on paper has the tools to be right there with Marshall. At 6’2’’ and possessing home run speed, Brian is able to stretch the field well, making use of Henne’s great arm strength. Hands can be a bit of a question for him, and I think he will suffer from Marshall’s presence and the rapport Henne has with Bess. Projections Brandon Marshall is a clear cut number one fantasy WR. He’s got a young QB who will get him the ball and a running game that will force the safeties to cheat in a bit. I’m going to err on the side of history and won’t give him 100 receptions, but I think 94 catches for 1,200 yards with nine TDs is a strong possibility. He’s a number one WR and will be a top ten receiver at the end of the year. I said it earlier; I think Bess is the number two man at the end of the year. Fair projection has him with 66 catches, for 600 yards but only two scores. Hartline finishes number three on the Dolphins list, with 40 catches for 525 yards and five scores. Both Bess and Hartline are better suited to be number three or flex options, but if you need one as a number two, favor Bess as I think his numbers will come across more consistently.  TIGHT END Anthony Fasano is not a star TE. He’s not the guy who scored seven TDs two years ago, but he is a better receiving option than he showed last year. Quite frankly even though the Dolphins don’t have a better option… you should. If you’re stuck in a bye week then you could do worse. Projection Fasano is one of those dime a dozen TEs who figures to have one big week at some point, leading to people thinking he’s better than he is. You shouldn’t do that. Expect 28 catches for 260 yards and 4 TDs.  DEFENSE The Dolphins are not primed to be a big defense yet. They are a 3-4 defense that lacks a prototype nose tackle, and elite pass rushers from the edge. Karlos Dansby is a fine player and a fine addition to any NFL defense, but for fantasy purposes, doesn’t do anything for your categories. The Dolphins also play some very talented passing attacks with Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh (which will have Roethlisberger back), and New England twice. They also play some great rushing teams including Baltimore, Tennessee, Cincinnatti, and the Jets twice. Look somewhere else for a starting defense. If you find yourself hard up for a matchup based defense, they do see Buffalo twice, Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit, and Chicago. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “Now as long as you hurt the other kid as bad or worse than he hurts you, you will have done your job. And I'll be proud of you.” – Dennis Reynolds Gonna swim with the Dolphins in 2010? Think they can help your fantasy squad? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Projections, 2010, NFL, Miami Dolphins, AFC East, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Brandon Marshall, Ted Ginn Jr., Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Patrick Cobbs, Lex Hilliard, Chris Chambers, Devone Bess, Brian Hartline, Wes Welker, Anthony Fasano, Karlos Dansby For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the New York Jets are a contender to win their first Superbowl. Last year, they were one half away from going to the big show. They have one of the strongest offensive lines in the league, added a Superbowl MVP at WR (Santonio Holmes) to a unit that already had a very talented possession receiver (Jerricho Cotchery) and a big play (and big drop) WR (Braylon Edwards). They also have a defense that was ranked number one last year, and added former pro bowlers Jason Taylor and Antonio Cromartie. As if that’s not enough, they move into a brand new, state of the art stadium that no longer has another team’s name on it. All that may seem well and good, but let’s face it, you’re here to ask what does it mean from a fantasy perspective, and unfortunately to Jets’ fans the answers aren’t as rosy. The Jets’ offense is its biggest question mark coming into this season. The offense starts with the running game, which was the NFL’s number one rated ground game last season.  Running Backs The Jets made a huge change to their running attack when they released incumbent starter Thomas Jones and his 1400 yards with 14 TD last year. TJ, who had in his three years with the Jets carried 931 times, was on the wrong side of 30, and the Jets decided that the slowdown Jones showed in the postseason, was enough to send him on his way. In his place steps Shonn Greene who certainly looked like the real deal in the playoffs last year, when he rushed 54 times for 304 yards, averaging a robust 5.6 yards per carry, before being hurt against the Colts in the AFC title game. The Jets are certainly banking on a full season repeat of those games. That’s high hopes, for a rookie who only had 108 total carries last year, but with the offensive line intact except for Left Guard, its certainly possible. The other big changes to the running game were in the area of third down back, where shifty runner and pass catcher Leon Washington was traded during the draft. Leon’s main place on the job was using his potentially game-breaking speed in open space, creating long gains. When a broken leg ended his season with the Jets, after he had threatened a holdout, it wasn’t a surprise the Jets looked to change-up. The change though, was the unexpected addition of former MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. Clearly LT isn’t the same player he was setting all those rushing records with the Chargers, and some would argue he’s never been as classy as he’s been portrayed. What he can do though, is act a great mentor to Greene, and serve as the best pass catching RB the Jets have ever had. The number three running back figures to be fourth round pick Joe McKnight. Barring injury or blowout, its unlikely McKnight sees more than five carries per game. Projections - Shonn Greene projects to be a borderline number one RB, but best fits the bill as a number two RB with tremendous upside. A safe projection for Shonn is 1150 yards, with 12 TD. Tomlinson should see close to 600 all purpose yards, and with his nose for the endzone, could end up vulturing maybe 8 TD. McKnight doesn’t warrant drafting at this time.  Quarterback Mark Sanchez started 15 games last year for the Jets, and had what has to be called a disappointing rookie season. His TD/INT Ratio was 12:20, and threw at least one pick in eight games and four with multiple interceptions. His completion percentage was a middling 53.8% and topped 60% in only three games. Despite this, the Jets are pleased with Sanchez, and feel that he could break out in a big way this year. The reason can be traced to the playoffs, and more specifically the AFC Title game, where Sanchez led his team to within one-half of the Superbowl, highlighted by an 80-yard hook up with Braylon Edwards in the second quarter. For the game, Sanchez completed just over 56 percent of his passes, but the leadership he showed, was impressive to most. In the playoffs overall, he was 41 for 68, a 60.3 completion percentage with a 4:2 TD/INT ratio. Looking ahead, Sanchez will have Cotchery and Edwards for a full season, as well as Santonio Holmes for 12 games. Plus, the Jets will likely make more of an effort to incorporate talented pass catcher Dustin Keller into the game, and LaDainian Tomlinson out of the backfield on 3rd downs. All in all, they stand to be a far superior passing targets to last year. Mark Brunell was signed to be the back-up to mentor Sanchez, and should not cut into the playing time of Sanchez at all. Erik Ainge and Kellen Clemens are competing for the number three QB spot. Projections - Mark Sanchez doesn’t project to be a starter in fantasy this year, but with the weapons he has available to him, and the fact that there isn’t going to be anyone gunning for snaps against him, Sanchez fits in nicely as a solid number 2 QB with the weapons to be a number one. If the team decides to open up the offense for him, then 3,000 yards / 16 TD / 10 INT is a fair projection.  Wide Receiver Jerricho Cotchery continues to be one of the leagues most consistent, yet underrated wide receivers. Consider that Jerricho has caught at least 57 passes each year since 2006 and has yet to produce under 800 yards, while routinely being considered the number two WR. His underwhelming TD production may speak more to the Jets decision to run the ball down in the trenches. Lining up opposite Cotchery figures to be Santonio Holmes once he serves his 4 game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Holmes, a former Superbowl MVP, finished last year tied for number two (Miles Austin) in plays of over 20 yards with 21. Holmes recorded eight games with at least 80 yards receiving, and in any game in which he recorded at least three catches, he finished with 70 plus yards. It’s also worth paying attention to the fact that Holmes is playing in the last year of his contract, and would love to audition for the Jets or any other team that is willing to pay for him. Also in a contract year is last year’s midseason acquisition, Braylon Edwards. Edwards was expected to break games wide open for the Jets last year, however Sanchez’s struggles combined with Edwards struggles to hold onto the ball, led some of the wonder to fizzle out. Even with the struggles, Braylon recorded four TD and 541 yards on just 35 catches, good for a 15.5 Y/R. Edwards is the type of WR that drives you crazy, because his talent is obvious when you watch him, but his inconsistencies make you think he lacks the determination to perform at the elite level for more than spurts. Now with Holmes on board, Edwards is expected to be the slot receiver, meaning he will draw the nickel back or safety more times than not. Considering that at 6’3” with great downfield speed, Edwards has the physical tools to dominate number one defensive backs. Going up against a team’s number three should make for numbers akin to what he had in his Pro Bowl season of 07. At this time, Brad Smith and Laveranues Coles will likely round at the four and five WR spots. Projections – Jerricho Cotchery should continue his steady numbers, and expecting 67 catches for 850 yards and three TD seems a fair placement for him. Consider him a number three WR for fantasy purposes, as his lack of scoring will prevent him from being a star. Santonio Holmes will only play in 12 games this year, but should still remain in the neighborhood of 58 catches for 855 yards with five TD, making him a number two WR. Braylon Edwards in my mind, is the WR to watch on this team. Playing in the slot with two other exceptional possession wide-outs surrounding him, look for somewhere to the tune of 58 catches, 880 yards, and five TD. Brad Smith, who operates the Jets hybrid Wild Cat formation has little fantasy value. Coles has less at this time.  Tight End Dustin Keller should be a very good TE in fantasy football. He’s a decent route runner with good hands, who is not often called upon to block. Dustin’s game hasn’t matched up to his expectations, despite some individual flashes. I bring this up because good pass catching tight ends are supposed to be a target down in the red zone, but five TD in 30 games, just isn’t going to cut it for anyone’s number two fantasy TE, let alone a guy some predicted could be a number one. Yet, like most Jets I’ve talked about, the playoffs last year served as something of a coming out party as Keller caught 12 balls for 181 yards and three TD. Except Keller to be a bigger part of this offense, but draft him as a number two TE.  Defense The defensive unit as a whole was among the best in fantasy last year, and this year, things should be the same. Jason Taylor was brought in to assist in getting after the QB, and throughout his career, few have been better. I see Taylor playing mainly in passing downs, and should contribute five or six sacks. Kris Jenkins being healthy makes the leagues top run defense even better, and with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the passing unit should be top five. Obviously that takes into account that Revis is signed and ready to play on opening day. If he isn’t, I don’t think his being on the team really impacts the defense from a fantasy standpoint all that much, unless you are in a league that awards points on yardage allowed. The biggest impact at corner back will come from Antonio Cromartie. The Jets brought him in to lock down the side opposite Revis, and as his ten INT in 2007 prove, Cromartie is good. He isn’t Revis good, but in fantasy, that’s better, because the ball is more likely to come his way. And the more the ball is thrown in Cromartie’s direction, the more likely he is to come away with an INT. Revis locked down other teams’ number one wide out, but he did his job so well, they just didn’t throw in his direction as much. This should be the first defense off the board. Written by Rick Marsh exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. “I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class. Especially since I rule” – Randal Graves Believe in the Green in 2010? Think they can help your fantasy squad? Leave a comment at the top right of the post or hit us up on twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, 2010, NFL, New York Jets, AFC, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Antonio Cromartie, Jason Taylor, Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Leon Washington, LaDainian Tomlinson, Joe McKnight, Mark Sanchez, Mark Brunell, Erik Ainge, Kellen Clemens, Miles Austin, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, Laveranues Coles, Dustin Keller | CategoriesAll  |
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