2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Ben Tate (credits below) Start ‘Em Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills, Week 17: @ New England Patriots) The Patriots have given up at least 14 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko. Enough said, moving on... Mark Sanchez (New York Jets, Week 17: @ Miami Dolphins) The Dolphins have allowed the 7th most passing yards and the second fewest rushing yards, so the way to beat them is obviously to air it out. Sanchez probably won’t throw it 50+ times as he did last week, but 40+ is a definite possibility. Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 17: Tennessee Titans) This little factoid has been mentioned in this space several times this year, but it’s worth noting again that Tate has double digit fantasy points in each of the games where he has received twelve or more carries. With Houston locked into the three seed, you can expect Arian Foster to be on the bench for most if not all of this one, which should allow Tate to get well over twelve carries and at least ten fantasy points. Darren Sproles (New Orleans Saints, Week 17: Carolina Panthers) Sproles is solid as Sears. He has nine games with double digit fantasy points and only one game with less than five fantasy points. With a matchup against the second worst run defense in football, it is unclear why ESPN’s Karabell and Harris have him outside their top 20 and why the Expert Consensus Ranking on him on FantasyPros.com is only #20. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 17: Washington Redskins) Maclin’s reception and yardage totals have increased each of the last two weeks, so it looks like he’s working his way back into the offense nicely. With no real reason for Philly to sit starters, Maclin should be a nice play this week. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 17: @ St. Louis Rams) With Braylon Edwards released and Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn unlikely to play, Crabtree and Brett Swain are the only San Francisco receivers healthy for a game they need to win. As will be discussed below, Vernon Davis may struggle to be productive in this matchup, so Crabtree is easily the best option for Alex Smith this week. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter should see a lot of work, but what San Fran gets through the air figures to go through Crabtree. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 17: @ Green Bay Packers) Green Bay sucks against tight ends to begin with, and if they rest any defensive starters (likely), it makes sense that they would suck even more against tight ends. Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans, Week 17: @ Houston Texans) Cook has 17 catches for 272 yards the last two weeks, and he’s available in 88% of leagues. Detroit Lions D/ST (Week 17: @ Green Bay Packers) Speaking of Green Bay sitting starters, there is a huge difference between Rodgers/Nelson/Finley and Flynn/Jones/Crabtree. Sit ‘Em Atlanta Falcons (Week 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Assuming Detroit beats Green Bay during the 1:00 games, Atlanta would be locked into the #6 seed before their 4:15 game. Even though coach Mike Smith has suggested he’ll play his starters no matter what, there’s no way you could trust Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Turner/Gonzalez to play much if at all. Cedric Benson (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 17: Baltimore Ravens) Benson did score two touchdowns against Baltimore in week 11, but he only managed 41 yards in 15 carries in that game. Benson has only managed 80+ yards in four games this year, but if he can get 84 on Sunday, Cincinnati would owe him an additional $250,000 for reaching 1,100 yards. As a result, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bernard Scott saw an extra series or two. Shonn Greene (New York Jets, Week 17: @ Miami Dolphins) See: Mark Sanchez Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers, Week 17: @ Oakland) Don’t be fooled by Jackson’s participation in practice late this week. San Diego has been eliminated from the playoffs, and it’s just too risky to put Jackson in your lineup when he could be held out of the game or pulled from it at the slightest sign of trouble. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 17: @ St. Louis Rams) The Rams have allowed the fewest yards, touchdowns, receptions, and fantasy points to opposing tight ends. They held Davis to 3 catches for 32 yards in week 13. There’s no way you can trust Davis in a fantasy final. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who will see you as soon as baseball mock draft lobbies get going. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (November 12, 2011 - Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America) Add Comment  Rex Grossman (credits below) Start ‘Em Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 16: Minnesota Vikings) If it’s a good matchup, Grossman has shown he can take advantage of it. And Minnesota is about as good as matchups get for quarterbacks. The Vikings have allowed at least two touchdown passes in all but one week since week five and 25 total touchdown passes over that nine game span. LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 16: @ Carolina Panthers) The key to Blount having a good fantasy day is simply having his team stay in the game. Blount’s four worst games of the season have been those where Tampa lost by two touchdowns or more with Blount getting about ten carries. Any time his carry totals have gotten deeper into the double digits, he’s been just fine. Although Carolina blew Tampa out the last time they played, Carolina’s defense is bad enough that the Bucs should be able to put up points with Josh Freeman at QB as opposed to Josh Johnson. And if Raheem Morris is smart (debatable), he’ll try to slow the game down and keep Cam Newton off the field by handing the ball off to Blount frequently. If Blount does get the requisite touches, he’ll have a good day, especially against a terrible Carolina run D. Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles) The Eagles absolutely stifle opposing receivers that line up out wide on the left side of the formation. Fortunately, for Robinson, Dez Bryant is the Cowboys wideout who works primarily from that side of the field. Robinson worked out of two-wide sets (and even a one-wide set at least once), so he should see enough snaps from a favorable spot (whether it be in the slot or wide right) to have a good fantasy day. Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 16: New York Giants) As mentioned in this space before, when selecting a tight end outside of the top six or seven guys you’re essentially just throwing darts at the proverbial touchdown dart board. Keller is sixth among tight ends in red zone targets and the Giants are tied for the third most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Hopefully one plus one actually equals two in that logic equation this week. Washington Redskins D/ST (Week 16: Minnesota Vikings) Over their last six games, the Vikings have allowed an average of just over 13 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. That’s a lot. Washington has an underrated defense due to a tough schedule and some bad luck in that they’ve forced the sixth most fumbles and have recovered the eighth fewest. Sit ‘Em Eli Manning (New York Giants, Week 16: @ New York Jets) Combine last week’s monstrosity and this week’s tough matchup, and how could you have the confidence to start Manning in the finals of your league? All the other top ten type QBs have at least decent matchups, and a few of the lesser guys have great matchups (like Grossman and Mark Sanchez), so there’s no reason to start Eli this week. Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams, Week 16: @ Pittsburgh Steelers) Somehow Jackson has managed 32 fantasy points in the last two weeks against above average run defenses (Seattle, Cincinnati). But with no threat of a passing game, it’s hard to bet on Jackson continuing to defy the odds, especially against a Steelers run D that’s better than Seattle and Cincy’s. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants, Week 16: @ New York Jets) If Eli is in your “Sit ‘Em” section and one of his receivers is likely to be covered by Darrelle Revis most of the time, then that receiver also has to be in the “Sit ‘Em” section. Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles) As mentioned above, the Eagles almost completely shut down receivers who line up on the left side. Bryant lines up on the left around 60% of the time. This is another case where one plus one should equal two. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 16: San Diego Chargers) The Chargers have the third lowest total of yards allowed to tight ends, and opposing tight ends have been targeted less against the Chargers than any other team. While they have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends (tied for third most), touchdowns can be affected by circumstance and aren’t the best measure of a team’s ability to stop a certain position. That’s a really long way of saying that the Chargers are pretty good against tight ends, so Pettigrew may not be a great play this week as a result. Chicago Bears D/ST (Week 16: @ Green Bay Packers) All of ESPN’s big four rankers have Chicago’s defense ranked 11th or higher, and Karabell has them as high as sixth. This seems insane to me as no defense facing the Packers has scored more than five fantasy points. Green Bay still has to win a game to lock up home field throughout the playoffs, so their starters are playing this entire game. You’d be crazy to start any defense against them. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas wishing you a merry Christmas, ya filthy animal. You can wish him a Happy New Year and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (December 17, 2011 - Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)  Dez Bryant (credits below) Start ‘Em Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 15: New York Jets) The matchup is not as scary as it looks. In six games against Romo, Tebow, Brady, and Fitzpatrick, the Jets have given up an average of 17.5 fantasy points to QBs. Their success in the “QB fantasy points against” category has been bolstered by the complete throttling of lesser competition. But the only top ten QB they’ve really handled has been... Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 15: Baltimore Ravens) If you haven’t noticed, his struggles appear to be over. He’s averaging almost 18 fantasy points per game over his last six, and he hasn’t thrown a pick since week 11 (inevitable positive regression). And his matchup is not as scary as it looks either. Sure, the Ravens have given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs, but they’ve only faced one QB in the top ten of passing yards (Roethlisberger). They’re good, but they’re probably not the best. Ryan Grant (Green Bay Packers, Week 15: @ Kansas City Chiefs) Admittedly, I no longer thought Grant was capable of being a relevant fantasy football player. But his 85 yards and two touchdowns against the pathetic Oakland defense proved he can still take advantage of a good matchup. He gets another good matchup to exploit this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fifth most points to opposing RBs and who has been especially porous in the last five weeks allowing 781 rushing yards and five rushing TDs. Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 15: Carolina Panthers) In the six games where Tate has received at least 12 carries, he has averaged 12.5 fantasy points and never had fewer than eight. While he hasn’t had 12+ carries in any of Houston’s last three games, he should see at least that many against Carolina, one of the two decidedly worst run defenses in the league, and should get double digit fantasy points as a result. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 15: Green Bay Packers) Kyle Orton lost his job in Denver because of the Mile High Messiah, but now Orton is the savior for Dwayne Bowe owners. Ever since Tyler Palko took over for the injured Matt Cassel, you couldn’t risk having Bowe in your lineup. With Orton under center, Bowe may finally be useable again. Especially against a Green Bay secondary that hemorrhages fantasy points to wide receivers. Santana Moss (Washington Redskins, Week 15: New York Giants) Moss saw 11 targets and recorded 14 fantasy points last week against the defense that allows the most fantasy points to receivers. This week he faces the defense that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers. He’s an absolute must start. Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 15: Dallas Cowboys) Williams had a run of consecutive solid performances halted at three games last week by a Jacksonville team that has only allowed more than one pass TD in a game once since week 5 and who has allowed less than 200 yards through the air in 9 of 13 games. This week Williams will face a Cowboys secondary that is not nearly as good as Jacksonville’s. Terence Newman looks so little like his former self that my dad has taken to calling him Clarence. My dad is doing that mainly because he’s old (not unlike Terence/Clarence), but his old and tired mind may just be subconsciously pointing out Newman’s rapidly declining skills. Jake Ballard (New York Giants, Week 15: Washington Redskins) Outside of the top four guys, you’re probably not getting enough yardage out of your tight end to make him an automatic start. It’s all about who can find their way into the end zone at that position. Ballard has been targeted in the end zone twelve times this season (four TDs) and faces the Redskins who are second worst against the tight end. That combination of factors gives Ballard a better shot of scoring this week than most other tight ends. Seahawks D/ST (Week 15: @Chicago Bears) In the three games started by Caleb Hanie, the Bears have given up an average of 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. On the year, only one team (the Rams) has allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses on average. The Seahawks D also happens to be 9th among defenses in fantasy points scored this year. So I have absolutely no idea why all of ESPN’s big four rankers have Seattle’s D ranked outside their top ten. Sit ‘Em Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 15: @ San Francisco 49ers) With Ben’s status up in the air because of his ankle injury, there is just no way you can risk waiting until Monday night to see if he is a go. That is of course unless you’re comfortable starting Alex Smith against the Steelers D or Charlie Batch as your QB in the fantasy playoffs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers, Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers) Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 15: @ San Francisco 49ers) The matchups are obviously bad for these two RBs whose teams are facing each other this week, but let’s also point that Mendenhall has not been very good this year and Gore has not been very good lately. Mendenhall has just one game with more than 70 yards rushing, and Gore is averaging less than eight fantasy points per game over his last four games. Marion Barber (Chicago Bears, Week 15: Seattle Seahawks) Seattle gives up and average amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs, but they mainly struggle with backs who can do damage in the passing game. Barber with his five catches this season is not that type of back. Moreover, it’s entirely possible that Khalil Bell sees a little more work this week after Barber’s two big blunders essentially cost Chicago a win last week. Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys, Week 15: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers) There are multiple reasons to be wary of Dez this week. First of all, he’s just inconsistent. He has had 14 targets and one target in the last two weeks. With Dez, Miles Austin, and Laurent Robinson all on the field at the same time, there may not be enough to go around each week. And Robinson and Austin are the guys who get a steady amount of looks each week, while Dez is more of the home run threat. Second, Tampa Bay’s run D is uglier than Arnold Schwarzenegger’s mistress. A lot of the Cowboy’s offensive production figures to come from Felix Jones. There’s just too much risk of getting nothing from Dez for me to feel comfortable enough playing him in the fantasy playoffs. Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis Rams, Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals) What the hell happened to Sam Bradford? Yeah, he’s playing hurt and his offensive line isn’t necessarily healthy either, but he has been downright atrocious this year. This is less of a knock on Lloyd and more a statement that he’s just too risky of a start with Bradford’s current level of play. Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots, Week 15: @ Denver Broncos) Hernandez is a quality tight end, but it’s hard to project him getting into the end zone with Gronkowski hogging all the touchdowns. Not to mention Denver being pretty stingy against the tight end as they’ve allowed the second fewest amount of yards to tight ends. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers) As you might imagine, Pittsburgh is pretty good at stopping tight ends, so this matchup is not ideal. But more importantly, Davis just hasn’t been very good this year. He’s 13th in fantasy points among tight ends, and he has three fantasy points in three straight games. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wants to be Rob Gronkowski when he grows up. You can see his lack of Gronkowski-like photos with porn stars and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (December 10, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)  Michael Crabtree QB Start: Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 14: New England) This is purely a matchup call. New England has given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko. That includes Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Mark Sanchez (twice), Vince Young, and the great Dan Orlovsky. QB Sit: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 14: Chicago Bears) Although squarely in the pro-Tebow camp for reasons unknown to even myself, I can’t help but shying away from playing Tebow this week. First of all, his interception rate is basically half of one percent. League average is just under three percent, and there’s just no way he can avoid throwing picks forever. Also, this game figures to be a tight, low scoring affair. Lots of it should be played in between the 20’s with lots of handoffs keeping the clock rolling. The number of plays each team runs will likely be well below their season average. Forgive me Father; I know not what I do. RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 14: @ Tennessee) Pierre Thomas is pretty good at football. You wouldn’t know it from the usage pattern of Sean Payton’s backfield, but he is. He averages just under five yards per carry for his career, and he’s averaging right at five yards per carry in 82 attempts this year. With Mark Ingram out, Thomas should pick up a few more carries. Although Chris Ivory might get 15 carries like he did in week 9 when Ingram was out. But, like I said, Thomas is a good football player who also has a chance to prove it this week. RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 14: @Jacksonville) How can you start Blount this week after he mustered just 19 yards on 11 carries last week in the choicest of choice matchups against Carolina? He’ll face the Jags on Sunday whose run D has had great games (held Houston to under 100 yards rushing) and awful games (gave up 115 yards to Chris Ogbonnaya). There’s just too much risk associated with Blount to be using him in the fantasy playoffs. BONUS FLEX PLAY: Brandon Saine (Green Bay Packers, Week 14: Oakland) With James Starks out, there’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to take advantage of a nice matchup against the Raiders. Ryan Grant has done nothing to show he’s any good, so why not Brandon Saine getting a little play this week? Per ProFootballFocus.com, he got 11 looks on just 21 snaps last week, and he’s been targeted seven times in the last two games. Saine is probably more interesting as a flex in a PPR league, but if you’re desperate, there’s upside here. WR Start: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 14: @ Arizona) Prior to last week, Crabtree and Antonio Brown were the only receivers with over 500 yards, 70 targets, and 40 receptions and just one touchdown. Both had big weeks and Crabtree cashed in on some of that inevitable positive regression with a touchdown while adding another 96 yards. Now, Crabtree, Brown, and Reggie Wayne are the only three receivers with 600+ yards, 45+ receptions and 75+ targets that don’t have at least three touchdowns. So there’s more positive regression in store for Crabtree, and he faces the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers. WR Sit: Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys, Week 14: New York Giants) Like Blount, there’s simply too much risk associated with starting Austin in the fantasy playoffs. Who knows how healthy he really is and if he’ll be able to play a full complement of snaps. And with Laurent Robinson having filled in more-than-adequately, who knows how targets will be distributed with Austin, Robinson, and Dez Bryant all in the lineup. If you’re in a two week playoff matchup or looking for an upside play, Austin might not be a bad play, but, for me, there’s just too much risk in playing him. TE Start: Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 14: Kansas City) From my favorite fantasy football Twitter account to follow, @PFF_MikeClay: Tight Ends are enjoying a 14.1 YPR and 17% TD rate against the Chiefs this year. Most generous to TEs in both categories. That’s a good enough reason to start a borderline top ten TE if you ask me. TE Sit: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 14: Houston Texans) Gresham will probably get his usual four or five catches, but, against a Texans team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not likely to result in a lot of yardage or a touchdown. BONUS D/ST PLAY: Arizona Cardinals D/ST (Week 14: San Francisco 49ers) Arizona’s D has been playing well lately as they’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points in their last six games. They face a San Francisco team whose strength isn’t exactly offense and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, is due for some serious regression in the interception department (1.5% INT%). They’re available in over 95% of leagues. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned. It has been almost a year since I last exhibited disbelief in Tim Tebow.” You can recommend he do five Hail Marys and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.   Matt Moore (credits below) QB Start: Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins, Week 13: Oakland) ESPN’s current player blurb on Moore claims that the Raiders are underrated against the pass. Really? How? Oakland allows the fifth most fantasy points to opposing QBs, has given up the 11th most passing yards, and has allowed the 4th highest total of passing touchdowns. And they’ve done it against inferior competition. They’ve only faced two QBs who rank among the top ten in fantasy points at that position, and they haven’t seen one of those quarterbacks since Week 5. Then there’s this from one of my favorite people on Twitter, @PFF_MikeClay: Raiders Defense has allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in 9 of their last 10 games (only exception: 0 vs. KC Wk7). Hey, Matt Moore! The list of quarterbacks that have thrown for 2+ TDs against the Raiders includes such names as: Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, and Caleb Hanie. I see absolutely see no reason why Matt Moore can’t be on that list by Sunday night. QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 13: @ Houston) Houston may be suffering in its ability to get production from its quarterback position, but they’re having no problem suppressing the production of opposing quarterbacks. Admittedly, they haven’t faced the strongest opposition, but they’ve handled weak quarterbacks as they should. They’ve allowed double digit fantasy points to quarterbacks just four times and 15+ points just once. Ryan is in the 8-12 range almost every week in the QB rankings and when he faces a strong opponent like this, he shouldn’t be above the start line. RB Start: Carolina RBs (Week 13: @ Tampa Bay) The only team worse against the run than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the team that Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams play for. So this is as good as a matchup can get for the Carolina duo. God only knows which one of them will have the better day, but one or both of them should have a big day. If you just own one of the two, start him and hope it’s his day. If you own both of them, who knows? You could start them both if you’re weak at flex, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with Stewart. RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati) The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati in week 10 Mendenhall was listed in this very same space. The strength of Cincy’s run D and the fact that Mendenhall has only one game with more than 70 yards rushing (still true) were cited as reasons to leave him on your bench. Mendy racked up a whopping 44 yards on 16 carries (2.75 ypc). Unfortunately, he got in the end zone....twice. Both scores came from inside the 10, so the circumstances of the game resulted in that sit call being wrong. But it’s about process, not results, and the thinking is the same this time around. Mendenhall has sucked, Cincy’s run D hasn’t, so he shouldn’t be a top 20 RB this week. WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 13: Cincinnati) Brown is going to be listed in this spot every week until either he’s recognized as the top 20 receiver that he is or he stops playing like a top 20 receiver. He has at least eight points in his last five games (Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz are the only other receivers who can make that claim). And he’s doing it almost exclusively with yardage as he has only one TD catch. Brown is the only receiver with 700+ receiving yards and less than three touchdowns. He and Greg Little are the only receivers with 45+ receptions and 85+ plus targets with only 1 TD. Those numbers absolutely scream regression. REGRESSION! Brown is absolutely going to catch some TDs down the stretch, and after you combine that with the 90 yards he’s averaging over his last five games, he’s going to have some very big days. BONUS FLEX PLAY: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis) Speaking of regression alerts, Crabtree is only slightly less of a positive regression candidate than Brown is. Crab has over 500 yards, 74 targets, and 44 receptions, but only one touchdown. He has 13 catches the last two weeks and faces a Rams team that allows the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers. WR Sit: Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills, Week 13: Tennessee) Before his antics and performance garnered him some attention last week, Stevie had been nowhere to be found since week 3, the last time he reached double digit fantasy points prior to his 13 against the Jets. As he goes up against a Titans team that is 6th best against WRs and has a pretty decent shutdown corner in Cortland Finnegan, expect him to slip back into the obscurity of mediocrity. TE Start: Jake Ballard (New York Giants, Week 13: Green Bay) TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 13: St. Louis) Unless you own Graham, Gronkowski, Gates, Witten, or Gonzalez, you’re just trying to guess which tight end will get in the end zone that particular week. Green Bay is really bad against tight ends, so Ballard has a shot to get you double digit points from your TE slot if he can get in the end zone. If he doesn’t, he should be safe for five points or so. As for Davis, more from @PFF_MikeClay: Vernon Davis owners -- No unit of tight ends has eclipsed 52 receiving yards in a single game vs. the Rams this season. They've allowed 1TD. Enough said. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who took a two-hour break from studying to write this. He apologizes if the words ‘statute’ or ‘doctrine’ were inadvertently typed into this article. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (November 19, 2011 - Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images North America) Week 12 Fantasy Football, Sit 'Em Start 'Em: Robinson A Solid Start With Austin Still Out 11/24/2011
 Laurent Robinson (credits below) QB Start: Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver) QB Sit: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons, Week 12: Minnesota) This is less of a statement that you should sit Ryan and more of a statement that it seems odd that most have Ryan ranked above Rivers this week when the matchup is equal (they face the two most fantasy-friendly-to QB defenses in the league this week). Rivers is capable of being a top five QB, and Ryan is squarely in the tier just below the elite quarterbacks and the tier just above risky plays like Flacco, Schaub, and Eli. The only reason Ryan is in the same sentence as Rivers this year is because Rivers has had bad luck with the turnovers. Interception rate is hardly a constant for QBs and not as within their control as you might think. Rivers’ 4.4% INT% is well above the average of 3% or so. He’ll start regressing to the mean at some point. There seem to be 11 start-worthy QBs this week (Rodgers, Newton, Stafford, Brees, Romo, Eli, Brady, Tebow, Roethlisberger), and Rivers/Ryan round out that list. No issue with starting Ryan. Just saying that if the choice came down to Rivers and Ryan, Rivers is still my guy. RB Start: Wills McGahee (Denver Broncos, Week 12: @ San Diego) RB Sit: Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers, Week 12: Denver Since Mathews racked up 125 yards against Denver’s run D in week 5, the Broncos haven’t allowed over 100 yards rushing to any group of running backs they have faced. For the year, Denver’s run D has only given up one rushing touchdown to a running back. So despite Mathews having some success last time out against them, the Broncos run D is pretty stout. More importantly, since his 12 fantasy point day against Denver, Mathews has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in any game and averaged only five fantasy points per game in the four games in which he appeared. Meanwhile, McGahee has accumulated a grand total of zero fantasy points in the last two weeks but was hampered by a hamstring injury in both games. Having a full ten days to rest since his last game, McGahee is reportedly healthy and good-to-go. He’ll go against the Chargers run D that gave up 125 yards on 16 carries to him in that week 5 matchup. Fortunately for McGahee owners, the Chargers run D hasn’t had as much success as Denver’s run D has had when the two teams aren’t playing each other. WR Start: Laurent Robinson (Dallas Cowboys, Week 12: Miami) WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 12: @Kansas City) ESPN has both of these guys ranked outside the top 20 (albeit close at 21 and 22), and I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Robinson has four straight weeks with no fewer than nine fantasy points and is facing a Miami team whose strength is stopping the run, not the pass. As long as Miles Austin is out, Robinson is start-worthy receiver in all formats. As for Brown, it’s like he finally got the recognition he deserved prior to his bye week and came out of it being undervalued again. He’s averaging ten fantasy points per game over his last four and has clearly assumed the #2 receiver role in Pittsburgh. A WR2 with talent that has a capable QB throwing him the ball deserves a start unless the matchup dictates otherwise. Kansas City has been average against opposing WRs but not so good as to warrant sitting Brown. WR Sit: Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens, Week 12: San Francisco 49ers) Boldin has been somewhat inconsistent this year with six games of single digit fantasy points and has struggled to post yardage at times as he has five games with less than 50 receiving yards. Given that Torrey Smith has seen his usage increase (nine receptions the last two weeks compared to Boldin’s three), Bolding doesn’t seem to be headed in the right direction. San Francisco may force Baltimore to throw quite a bit because the 49ers are so good against the run, but this should be a low scoring game and touchdowns may be hard to come by. For that reason, stay away from Boldin this week TE Start: Owen Daniels (Houston Texans, Week 12: Jacksonville) You could make the argument that Matt Schaub being out will hurt Daniels, but you could just as easily make the argument that Matt Leinart is likely to be conservative and might frequently use his TE underneath. Daniels has been on a bit of a cold spell, but a lot of that has been because he hasn’t found the end zone in awhile. He’s still a talented tight end who is facing a Jaguars team that isn’t so good at stopping talented tight ends, so this seems like a decent time for him to rebound. TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 12: @Baltimore Ravens) Yardage has not been Davis’ strength this year. He’s managed more than 50 yards in a game just twice. His week-to-week success has depended on him getting in the end zone (admittedly, this could be said about almost all tight ends). Unfortunately for Davis, the Ravens have yet to give up a TD to an opposing tight end. Not sure that streak gets broken this week. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who hates pumpkin pie and whose mother doesn’t make good dressing. Happy Thanksgiving indeed. You can tell him to quit complaining about his #firstworldpains and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (November 12, 2011 - Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)  Ben Tate (credits below) RB Start: Ben Tate (Houston Texans, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay) In the five games where Tate has 12 or more carries, he has averaged 12.6 fantasy points and hasn’t had fewer than eight points in any of those games. Against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and who is without DT Gerald McCoy, the Texans figure to run the ball a lot. Tate should get at least 12 carries and should record double digit fantasy points. RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati) Cincinnati appears to have an excellent pass defense. But, as I pointed out in my MarketWatch article this week, it only appears that way because they have yet to face a quarterback who ranks top 12 in passing yards. This week they face Big Ben Roethlisberger who is 3rd in passing yards this season. This is the week the Bengals pass D is exposed for the middle-of-the-pack unit that it really is. On the other hand, the Bengals run D has allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards despite facing backs like Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and a healthy Peyton Hillis. This is the true strength of the Bengals defense. Mendenhall has single digit fantasy points in five games this season and has topped 70 rushing yards in only one game. Pittsburgh is a throw-first team at this point, and that pass-happy approach figures to be more successful against this particular defense. WR Start: Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, Week 10: @ San Diego) Just kidding. WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati) We’ve already covered the fact that Cincy’s pass defense is overrated. Brown is 7th in the league in targets, the most targeted receiver on his team, and he has three straight weeks of double digit fantasy points. So why wouldn’t he be an automatic start against an overrated pass defense? WR Sit: Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 10: Minnesota) Nelson has five touchdowns but only 29 receptions. That’s basically one TD catch every six receptions. It’s certainly possible that he keeps that rate up, but such low usage plus a lot of scores just screams regression. This is a great matchup for Green Bay’s epic pass machine, so maybe this isn’t the week regression kicks in for Jordy. But, to be honest, I don’t know who else to tell you to sit at this position. QB Start: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 10: @ Kansas City) A few points here, a few points there, and before you know it Tebow has 20+ fantasy points on the day. He averages just over that 20 point number in the 3.5 halves where he has been the starter. Unless the matchup is just brutal, Tebow is a must start. Kansas City is only 17th best against the QB, and they’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing QBs. They’re not nearly good enough to warrant leaving Tebow on the bench. QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay) Schaub is a “QB Sit” regular at this point. He’s currently 9th among QBs in fantasy points, but he’s the only one of the top ten to have three games with single digit fantasy points. The suckitude of Tampa’s run defense has already been discussed, so we can expect Houston to run, run, and run some more. The Texans will likely lead most of this game, so they can run even more still. Andre Johnson is still out as well, and how can you feel good about starting a QB whose best receiver is Kevin Walter? TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 10: @ Chicago) (insert TE facing Chicago here) From ESPN’s blurb on Pettigrew this week: (The Bears) have allowed the most targets (80), catches (54), touchdowns (6) and ESPN standard fantasy points (86) to (tight ends). TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 10: New York Giants) Vernon Davis has fewer targets than Fred Davis has catches. 33 tight ends have more red zone targets than Vernon. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t seem to be a big part of San Fran’s offense. The Giants have allowed five or fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends six times. Admittedly, they’ve faced some pretty weak tight ends, but at this point Vernon Davis isn’t a strong TE option. Expect the Giants to continue shutting down tight ends they should shut down. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes there was a real life equivalent of “Suck for Luck.” You can tell him that sounded gay and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (October 22, 2011 - Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images North America) 2011 Fantasy Football, Week 9 Sit 'Em Start 'Em: Time For A Big Bounce Back From Wes Welker? 11/04/2011
 Wes Welker (credits below) With tremendous thanks to Brett Talley (@therealTAL) for filling in for me the past few weeks, herewith is Week Nine’s Sit/Start: QB Start: Matt Cassel, Kansas City The Dolphins are not bad – they’ve been tied or ahead in almost every game this year – but they do tend to give up a lot of air yards (including 345 to Eli Manning last week). And if this year’s game log is any judge, Cassel’s due for a hot streak. He started with two poor games, followed up with 3 excellent games, and has now had 2 consecutive bad games – time might be ripe for a few hundred yards and a couple TDs. QB Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Why, you might ask, would a lifelong Steelers fan be telling people to sit his beloved quarterback? Because, as anyone can tell you, Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense LOVE playing against Ben. Week One saw 7 turnovers and 18 sacks, and although the Ravens offense lives somewhere between functional and mediocre, the defense is not. They hate the Steelers, and will be all over Roethlisberger like white on rice. Plus, with Emmanuel Sanders out and Hines Ward hobbled, the receiving corps is seriously depleted. RB Start: Ray Rice, Baltimore On this list because everyone seems to think the Steelers’ run defense is (a) still very good, and (b) shuts down Ray Rice. Neither of those things is true. In Week One, he had 149 yards and 2 touchdowns, and while those were first two career touchdowns against the Steelers, he has seven TDs through 8 games and without Willis McGahee, he is clearly the Ravens go-to guy for touchdowns. And with three-fourths of the Steelers’ starting linebacking corps injured, Rice may have a lot of opportunities underneath. RB Sit: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England I know some out there are saying to start him, but how can you start a guy with one good game this season and no knowledge whatsoever about what his coach will do? Honorable Mention: Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Another guy with one good game this season, and playing a defense he traditionally does not excel against. WR Start: Wes Welker, Patriots Don’t think he’s too hurt – I expect a monster day from him. Belichick, Brady and the Pats are furious, Welker wants to bounce back from getting his clock cleaned last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have another 12 or 14 catch performance coming. WR Sit: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo Bills Two words: Darelle Revis. TE Start: Ben Watson, Cleveland Finally over the concussion that has hampered him the past few weeks, I expect Colt McCoy to find him early and often against the Texans, whose underneath pass defense isn’t the best. Honorable Mention: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Suddenly relevant again and the #4 tight end in the AFC. TE Sit: Any Redskins tight end not named Fred Davis Please don’t think that it’s the system that has caused Davis’ success. It’s Davis. Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Jesse’s NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em and in the meantime, follow him on Twitter @jessemendelson and The Fantasy Fix @thefantasyfix. And don’t forget that for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 17, 2011 - Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images North America) Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Jesse Mendelson, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 9, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit  Pierre Thomas (credits below) QB Start: Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 8: @ Kansas City) It seems ridiculous to recommend starting Rivers when he was generally the fifth quarterback taken, a high second/low third round pick, and someone who went for around $30 in auctions. But a lot of rankers have Rivers right around the cutoff point of tenth for those in standard ten-team leagues. It’s entirely possible that you have Rivers and added Tim Tebow a few weeks back. Or you might have Joe Flacco or Tim Hasselbeck backing up Rivers, both of whom have favorable matchups this week. Tebow would be the most tempting to start over Rivers, but he has a tough matchup this week (Detroit), and despite ending up with 20+ fantasy points last week, he accumulated single digit fantasy points in the first 55 minutes of that game. Flacco and Hasselbeck are less tempting simply because of seemingly limited upside. Don’t give up on the “elite” quarterback you drafted just yet. He’s been a bit unlucky as his interception rate is a little high at 4.1%, and his upside each week is still huge. We’re not yet at the point where Rivers isn’t an automatic start. QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 8: Jacksonville) Please welcome Mr. Schaub to the “QB Sit” section of this article for the third straight week. In week 6 he proved he belonged in this space, and in week 7 he turned in a top ten fantasy QB performance. Week 8 has the potential to be more like week 6 for Schaub as he faces a surprisingly tough Jacksonville defense. He’ll also be without Andre Johnson again this week, and he’ll have to compete for yardage with a healthy backfield duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 8: @ St. Louis) It seems like ages ago, but Thomas has a 1,000+ total yard season with eight touchdowns under his belt. More recently he has had success as he racked up over 100 total yards last week. However, competition in the New Orleans backfield has kept Thomas’ fantasy value in check. But with Mark Ingram out this week, Thomas should see his fair share of touches. Darren Sproles is likely to be the New Orleans back that touches the ball the most, but with a matchup that couldn’t be sweeter for running backs in the St. Louis Rams, both backs will have the opportunity to rack up fantasy points. Last week, DeMarco Murray torched St. Louis for 31 fantasy points, and backup Phillip Tanner got nine. The distribution should be a little more even between Sproles and Thomas, so each could easily have double digit fantasy points this week. RB Sit: Montario Hardesty (Cleveland Browns, Week 8: @ San Francisco) It looks like Peyton Hillis will be out again this week, so Hardesty is in line to get his second straight start. The reasoning behind sitting Hardesty is pretty simple. San Francisco has allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to opposing RB’s by a fairly large margin. Moreover, Hardesty couldn’t get to 100 yards last week with 33 carries. This one’s a no-brainer, right? WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8: New England) After Mike Wallace, the exact order of Pittsburgh’s receivers on the depth chart has seemed a bit hazy. Hines Ward, Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders could be confused for a WR2 by committee. However, the young guys, Brown and Sanders, led both Wallace and Ward in targets last week. Brown is probably in line ahead of Sanders as Sanders only saw his workload increase after Ward left with an injury. The good folks at ProFootballFocus.com tell us that Brown was targeted on 40% of his pass routes and averaged an impressive 3 yards per pass pattern. So Brown looks to solidly be the WR2 in Pittsburgh and for good reason. Opportunity + talent = success. Throw in a favorable matchup against a New England team who allows the most fantasy points on average to opposing WR’s and Brown looks to be a legitimate fantasy WR2 in week 8. WR Sit: Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis Colts, Week 8: @ Tennessee) Tennessee’s defense has been more than a little shaky lately, but, then again, so has Garcon. He had only three catches in a game where Indy was playing from behind from the outset. And despite Tennessee’s less-than-stellar showings the last two weeks, they still rank in the top five for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. The Titans seem to be much more vulnerable to the run and tight ends through the air. It’s hard to recommend starting any Colt these days, but maybe Delone Carter and Dallas Clark are the best fantasy options coming from the Colts against Tennessee. TE Start: Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings, Week 8: @ Carolina) Unfortunately, the Bears are on bye this week, so I can’t automatically put their opposing tight end in to this slot for once. In Christian Ponder’s first start he targeted Shiancoe eight times and Visanthe got in the end zone. Minnesota’s week 8 opponent is a Carolina team that has been below average against the tight end. There’s a decent chance the Ponder-Shiancoe connection could thrive again in that matchup. TE Sit: Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 8: Minnesota) You’d think people would be off the Olsen bandwagon after two uninspiring performances in a row, but a lot of rankers still have him as a top ten option this week. It’s more a product of there being a stark lack of alternatives at the position than anything else, but you’d still think people would be willing to admit that Olsen sucks when Olsen has sucked right before their eyes for two consecutive weeks. Jeremy Shockey out-targeted Olsen last week by a count of four to one. However, neither guy is a great option this week against the Vikings who allow less than 6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. When in doubt, assume Greg Olsen sucks, and leave him on the bench. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** Rangers. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. (October 22, 2011 - Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images North America) Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 8, Week eight, Sit Start  Tim Tebow (Credits Below) QB Start: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 7: @ Miami) Tebow has been the starting quarterback for seven halves in his young career. In those seven halves he has averaged over 12 fantasy points per half. If you haven’t already done the math, that’s 24 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t shown the ability to be effective through the air (career 48.9% CMP%) which forces him to use his fantasy friendly ability to use his legs. Tebow has a rushing touchdown in all four games where he has been the starter, so starting Tebow is essentially like using a running back in your QB slot with the added bonus of a few passing points. Tebow might not be the answer at QB for the Broncos, but he is a must start for fantasy owners. QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 7: @ Tennessee) Schaub has had three good games which came against three defenses that all rank in the top five of most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. In two of those three games, Schaub had Andre Johnson to throw to. This week Schaub faces a defense that has allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Andre Johnson isn’t available (hamstring). Two “wrongs” don’t make a “right.” RB Start: Mike Tolbert (San Diego Chargers, Week 7: @ New York Jets) The J-E-T-S are N-O-T good against the run. They’ve allowed the second most rushing yards in the league and are tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed. Ryan Mathews is sure to benefit from the matchup as well, but the two San Diego backs have shared success in the same game before as they each scored double digit fantasy points in weeks 1 and 4. Tolbert is reportedly healthy and still the goal line back as well as an option in the passing game. He’ll find some yardage either on the ground or through the air and will get a chance to punch it into the end zone. RB Sit: Handcuffs starting this week Montario Hardesty, DeMarco Murray, and Maurice Morris are all getting the start this week as the lead backs in front of them are out with various injuries. However, it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the trio. Murray will be running behind a bad offensive line and alongside some competition in Tashard Choice. Wait and see how the carries are distributed among the two Dallas backs and whether either of them is able to be effective behind that line before starting them. Morris just may not be any good. Wait and see to make sure he doesn’t suck before using him. Of the three, Hardesty has the best chance to be a viable RB2 going forward. However, this week he faces a Seahawks defense that has actually been pretty good against the run. Use him if you must, and you may have to with six top 20 running backs on bye this week, but temper your expectations. WR Start: Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans, Week 7: Houston) Washington has been extremely consistent this year as he’s recorded at least 60+ receiving yards in every game. If and when he gets in the end zone, Washington will easily get into the double digits in fantasy points. During the bye weeks, you could do much worse than a safe six points with a pretty decent chance of cracking ten or even fifteen fantasy points. WR Sit: Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis Rams, Week 7: @ Dallas) Lloyd will be good in St. Louis, and he’ll likely be good sooner rather than later as he’s already familiar with Josh McDaniel’s offensive scheme. But it seems a little much to expect much from him after six days as a St. Louis Ram. Not to mention Sam Bradford is out and A.J. Feely will be throwing Lloyd the ball. Give Lloyd a week or two to get acclimated and Bradford a week or two to get healthy before reinserting Lloyd in your starting lineup. TE Start: Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 7: Chicago, game in London) The Bears D finally held an opposing tight end in check last week, but they only managed to do so against Visanthe Shiancoe with McNabb and Ponder throwing him the ball. And even after shutting down Shiancoe the Bears still allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Winslow leads the Bucs in receptions this year, but has yet to find the end zone. With such a good matchup, expect Josh Freeman to continue to heavily target Winslow and for Winslow to finally find pay dirt. TE Sit: Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 7: @ San Diego) Let’s be clear, if Gates is healthy, he could go off. Even though it’s not the most favorable matchup, Gates is on a level where matchups don’t matter too much when he’s 100%. But is he 100%? He seems likely to go on Sunday, but the Chargers chose not to let Gates practice three days in a row this week. Will he be able to play in three straight series’ on Sunday? It’s just that Gates’ questionable tag raises a lot more questions than one might normally have for a guy listed as questionable. Because there are so many questions and because the matchup isn’t ideal, it might be smart to leave Gates on your bench until he proves he can make it on to, and stay on, the field. If you are a Gates owner, you have likely found a decent backup option by now. If that’s the case, roll with your plan B for one more week. If you’ve been piecing together your TE starters with waiver wire slop, you can understandably roll the dice with Gates. Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who really “went out on a limb” with that Brandon Lloyd call. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL. Photo Credit: (October 8, 2011 - Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America) Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 7, Week seven, Sit Start, Time Tebow, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow, Nate Washington, Matt Schaub, Mike Tolbert, Brandon Lloyd | CategoriesAll  |
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