 Mark Ingram (credits below) QB Start: Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6: New Orleans)
With only one touchdown and four picks thrown in the last three weeks (and a particularly brutal performance at San Francisco last week), it is understandable if your faith in Freeman is a bit shaken.
But he can’t be this bad, right? Right.
At first glance, the fact that Freeman has already equaled his interception total from last season is alarming, but Freeman’s INT% was an unsustainably low 1.3% last year. The spike in INT’s was inevitable. Chase Stuart from FootballGuys.com has done some excellent work that shows QB interception totals are extremely random, so predicting further interception problems for Freeman going forward based on the first five games would be ridiculous.
And has he really been that bad? Aside from last week’s stinker, Freeman averaged just over 15 fantasy points per game over the first four week’s which almost equaled his 2010 average when he was the 7th highest scoring fantasy quarterback. Freeman’s ability to grab a couple extra points with rushing yards and to occasionally take the ball into the end zone himself help him accumulate points even when he doesn’t have his best day through the air. And let’s not forget that it hasn’t been all bad through the air as Freeman has improved his completion percentage from 61.4% last year to 64.0% this year.
This week Freeman faces a New Orleans team that generally forces teams to throw from behind and is better at stopping the run than they are the pass (10th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RB’s; 8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s). So this is a good matchup for a good quarterback. Sounds like a start to me.
QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 6: @ Baltimore)
This call is a layup. So much so that I almost feel like it’s pointless to put him here. But Schaub was selected among the top 40-50 players and was the sixth or seventh QB taken, so some might hesitate to leave a fairly high pick like that on the bench.
Schaub faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QB’s, is one of only six teams to have allowed less than 1,000 passing yards, and is tied for the fewest amount of passing touchdowns allowed. Moreover, that Ravens D is at home and coming off a bye. Throw in the absence of Andre Johnson and Schaub is a big stay away this week. If you backed him up with someone like Eli, Flacco, Fitzpatrick, or even Freeman, this is a week to make use of the backup.
RB Start: Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints, Week 6: @ Tampa Bay)
Ken Daube wrote an article for ESPN.com this week detailing Ingram’s failure to meet expectations. Daube cites Ingram’s low touchdown success ratio on carries inside an opponent’s ten (10%) as well as his low percentage of rushes that go for ten or more yards. One way of looking at that info, and how Daube sees it, is that those who believed in Ingram were wrong to take him in the 7th-8th round.
The other way of looking at it is that Ingram is due. Saying he’s due may not sound like solid reasoning, but all I mean is that there may be some regression to the mean in order. Touchdown percentage is a category where regression to the mean is bound to happen at some point. Unless Ingram stops getting carries in close, and there’s no indication of that happening, the touchdowns will come.
As for the criticism regarding Ingram’s failure to have runs longer than ten yards, Mike Clay pointed out on Twitter (@PFF_MikeClay) that Ingram has the same median run as Sproles and Thomas. Just because Ingram hasn’t busted one yet doesn’t mean he never will. He’s only played five games, so the sample size is pretty small. Whenever Ingram does bust one, his yards per carry will look like it should.
Against a Tampa run defense that has turned in varying results, I say this is the week Ingram gets what’s coming to him. I say he breaks one which helps him have his first 75-80+ yard rushing day, and I say he makes good on one of those carries in close.
RB Sit: Jahvid Best (Detroit Lions, Week 6: San Francisco 49ers)
Until further notice, it’s probably a good idea to sit all but the elite backs when they face the 49ers. This run defense is stout. They’re one of four teams that have yet to allow 300 rushing yards this season, one of two teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a running back, and the only team that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown at all.
Best is a back that can make hay as a member of the passing game, but San Fran has had success shutting down similar backs like LeSean McCoy and Felix Jones. Despite Best’s big play ability, he’s likely to get shut down this week.
WR Start: Mario Manningham (New York Giants, Week 6: Buffalo Bills)
Because Buffalo puts up a lot of points (3rd in points per game) and doesn’t have the best defense (3rd most yards per game allowed), this game has the potential to be a bit of a shoot out. The Bills D also allows 25 fantasy points per game to opposing WR’s, so there should be plenty to go around for New York receivers.
Hakeem Nicks is sure to get his and Victor Cruz has 54 fantasy points in the last three weeks, but I’m going with a gut call and saying Manningham gets in on the action this week. It’s hard to believe that a receiver with 900 yards and 9 TD’s last year will permanently disappear, and this matchup lends itself to Manningham finally showing up.
WR Sit: Santana Moss (Washington Redskins, Week 6: Philadelphia)
The blueprint to attacking the Eagles defense is a steady dose of hand offs, getting the ball to your backs in the passing game, and utilizing your tight end if you have one. The best plan of attack does not involve the heavy usage of your wide receivers. The Eagles have allowed the fifth fewest receptions to receivers but have given up the most rushing yards in the league and have been burned by the two respectable tight ends they have faced.
Whether it’s Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, or some practice squad running back you’ve never heard of, a Redskins running back is going to have a big day. And Fred Davis and Chris Cooley could have big days and are likely to be targeted in the red zone. Moss is usually a safe play (at least seven fantasy points each week), but this just isn’t a good matchup for him.
TE Start: Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings, Week 6: @Chicago) To be fair to the Chicago defense, they have faced an excellent group of tight ends in Gonzalez, Graham, Finley, Olsen, and Pettigrew. But they have shown no indication that they are capable of stopping the tight end. As a result, I’m recommending the opposing tight end of the Bears every week until Urlacher and company give me a reason to do otherwise.
TE Sit: Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 6: @ Atlanta)
Call me crazy, but I’m going to bet on Greg Olsen not scoring a touchdown four weeks in a row. Even if Atlanta wasn’t one of the better teams against the tight end, and even if Jeremy Shockey wasn’t around to potentially steal Olsen’s thunder, I’d still be willing to take my chances on Olsen not getting in the end zone for a fourth consecutive week. But as it turns out, Atlanta is one of the better teams against the tight end, and Jeremy Shockey is a factor. So I’ll definitely take my chances.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who just wrote Ingram is going to bust a big one. That’s what she said. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(September 17, 2011 - Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 6, Week Six
 Ryan Fitzpatrick (credits below) QB Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills (Week 5: Philadelphia)
Fitzpatrick has had three good games and one bad game. The good games all came against teams that rank in the top ten of most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. The bad game came against a team that ranks in the top ten for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. This week Fitzy faces a Philly team whose secondary has been of the middle-of-the-road variety so far, but everyone expects that secondary is capable of performing, and will perform, at a higher level.
The criticisms of Fitzpatrick’s actually physical ability to play QB are that he’s not accurate enough and doesn’t have a big arm. Last year he was 27th in the NFL in completion percentage, and, though he’s improved, he’s still not among the elite in that category at 13th so far this season. As far as arm strength is concerned, he ranked outside the top 20 in yards per completion last season and is only 18th so far this season.
Everyone seems to have bought in completely on Fitzpatrick, but it’s not overtly clear why that is. Sure, there have been some big games, but there have been some bad ones, too. With questions about his physical tools, a spotty track record, and a potentially difficult opposing secondary, Fitzpatrick isn’t an automatic start, even during the bye weeks.
QB Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Not that this is breaking news or anything, but Ryan puts up better numbers at home. Specifically, his completion percentage is over six points higher in the dome, his yards per attempt mark is full yard higher, and he’s got the same amount of TD’s and ten less INT’s than he does on the road in four fewer games played.
This week he faces a Green Bay team that forces their opponents to throw from behind in excess and isn’t very good at stopping their opponent from doing so successfully. They allow an average of 21.8 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s and have allowed the second most passing yards so far.
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers(Week 5: @ San Francisco)
I love LeGarrette Blount. So much so that I overpaid for him in more than one draft, and I might even be willing to let him sucker punch me. But his matchup against the Niners this week has to make you think about leaving him on your bench. With six teams on bye, it’s entirely possible (if not likely) that you don’t have the option of not using Blount this week. However, if Blount is your RB2 and you drafted some other guys late (i.e. Tolbert, Ingram, Starks, Addai, McGahee, or even Isaac Redman), this might be the week to put them to use.
San Francisco’s run D has been absolutely stifling to this point. They’ve allowed only 27 total fantasy points to opposing RB’s(*), and they haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown. And it isn’t like they haven’t played a team with a decent back. They shut down McCoy on the ground (although the Eagles didn’t elect to run much) as well as Benson, Jones (Felix), and Lynch. Throw in the short week after 25 carries on Monday night, and Blount may not be able to get much done on the West Coast.
For comparison’s sake, the Eagles have allowed at least 26 fantasy points to opposing RB’s in every single week.RB Start: New Orleans running backs (Week 5: @ Carolina)
For starters, Carolina’s run defense is atrocious. They got torched by Forte last week, gave up 100+ yards to MJD before that, and allowed 100 yards and a score to teams with marginal backs like Beanie Wells and James Starks.
Darren Sproles is the best of the bunch as he has double digit fantasy points in each of the first four weeks. He’s getting it done on the ground and through the air and is basically playing like Reggie Bush will always wish he could. Mark Ingram is also an RB2 in ten-team leagues for the week as far as I’m concerned. Carolina should be able to somewhat keep pace with the Saints, allowing for New Orleans to continue running the ball for the entirety of the game. There is a pretty decent chance Ingram finds the end zone as a result. Pierre Thomas is also an option in deeper leagues or possibly as a flex play in shallower leagues for those who are missing RB’s because of the byes. There’s more than a non-existent chance that Thomas gets a TD this week.
WR Sit: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints(Week 5: @ Carolina)
As mentioned above, Carolina is particularly vulnerable on the ground making it likely New Orleans scores via the ground game this week. Moreover, the Saints now have Jimmy Graham as a very reliable red zone option. There’s also the general frustrating boom-or-bust nature of owning Saints receivers. Even when Colston has been on the field week in and week out, you have never known when other receivers would get all the looks and Colston would put up a stinker. But with Colston in just his second game since returning from a broken collarbone, there’s an added element of uncertainty with him this week. You probably need to see him play a full game of snaps and produce on some level before reinserting him into your starting lineup.
WR Start: Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (Week 5: @ New York Giants)
When doing these start/sit articles, you kind of go through a checklist of things with each player. For example, this is the list I used to determine whether Rice was the receiver with which I wanted to put myself out there:
Has he performed well to this point: Check. Double digit performance in both starts.
Is he facing a non-threatening secondary: Check. Giants are injury depleted in the secondary and have allowed an average of over 20 points per game to opposing WR’s.
Will his team be throwing throughout the game: Check. Rice’s Seahawks are playing a superior opponent and should have to throw the ball from behind.
TE Sit: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Here is what I wrote about Gonzalez when I recommended you sit him in last week’s start/sit article:
**Gonzalez had his lowest reception total since 2002 last season and his lowest yardage total since he became a starter in 1998. He has also managed only six touchdown catches in each of the last two seasons. Two of his touchdowns this season came against an Eagles team that has a tough time defending tight ends. With all that in mind, it’s easy to see that Gonzalez will not be able to sustain his current touchdown rate. And his value is tied to those touchdowns as the points accumulated via his three touchdown catches account for more than half of his fantasy points this season (24 of 45). When the touchdown faucet gets turned off, Gonzalez’s value will be minimal.**
I’m sticking to my guns on this one, even if it means I shoot myself in the foot.
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (Week 5: @ Detroit)
Since I went with Gonzalez as my TE “sit” for the second consecutive week, I’m going to recommend starting Pettigrew for the second consecutive week as well. In fact, since I’m lazy, here’s what I wrote about Pettigrew last week:
**It seems that I can’t write a single fantasy football article without making at least one reference to ProFootballFocus.com, and this article is no different. They guys at PFF have developed a set of criteria in order to determine which TE’s will put up consistent numbers going forward. With Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates out, only seven TE’s meet the criteria, and Pettigrew is one of them (along with Gronkowski, Graham, Keller, Witten, Finley, and Davis).**
Pettigrew also has a nice matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far. They’ve allowed at least five receptions and at least 70 yards to opposing tight ends in each week this season.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would probably list Tony Gonzalez as a “sit” for the remainder of the season if he was the regular author of the start/sit article. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.(September 24, 2011 - Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images North America)
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 5, Week Five
 Frank Gore There are many approaches and philosophies to playing fantasy sports. Some people are willing to take on risk in the interest of upside while others are completely risk-averse. Some people go stars and scrubs on draft day while others will only draft players who go for a bargain.
My personal approach is to treat it like gambling. Take in as much information as you can to make the most informed, logical decision and rely on that proper decision-making process to make the aggregate result of your decisions enough to make a profit/win a fantasy league.
Unfortunately, publicizing your start/sit recommendations doesn’t allow for any sort of aggregate. It’s a very small sample size, and if enough people take your advice, some of them are bound to lose their weekly matchup as a result. Needless to say, I’m not crazy about going out on such a limb. So I guarantee this advice is 100% wrong or your money back.
Start/sit advice is based on ten-team leagues so QB/TE start recommendations are guys I think are top ten plays and RB/WR start recommendations are guys I think are top 20 plays.
QB Start: Rex Grossman, Washington Redskins (Week 4: @ St. Louis)
Over the final three weeks of 2010 and the first three weeks of 2011, Grossman is averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game. In week four he gets a Rams defense that has not been as good as some thought Steve Spagnuolo would have made it. To be fair, the Rams have faced Michael Vick, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco this year, but they’ve still allowed seven TD’s through the air while forcing only one interception. Unless you also own one of the top 6 QB’s (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Vick, Rivers, Brees) you should probably be starting Grossman this week.
QB Sit: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (Week 4: Detroit)
I’ll be honest, I own both Romo and Grossman on two teams, and it will be tough for me to actually pull the trigger on starting Grossman over Romo. But it’s probably, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, the safer play. Romo is still banged up, and the very capable pass rush of the Lions could make his rib injury an issue at some point. Not to mention the fact that Miles Austin is out on Sunday and Dez Bryant is a fairly questionable game-time decision. The Lions have also been pretty good against the pass so far allowing only two TD’s through the air (albeit to Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel, and Donovan McNabb). I understand if you can’t bring yourself to go with Grossman over Romo, but I’m going to force myself to take my own advice.
RB Start: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (Week 4: @ Philadelphia)
I know, I know, it’s not exactly going out on a limb telling people to start a guy who was drafted tenth among running backs. But Gore has been brutal so far (19 points through three weeks), he’s got a bit of an ankle issue (listed as questionable but expected to play), and Kendall Hunter got in on the action last week (scored a touchdown). I just want to make sure Gore owners don’t panic and sit him this week. He’s got a fantastic matchup going against the Eagles who have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. If you drafted Gore in the second/third round, you’re going to need something out of him in order to win. This should be the week he finally gives you something.
RB Sit: James Starks, Green Bay Packers (Week 4: Denver)
With Ryan Grant out this week, Starks would appear to be a guy you should have in your lineup. And Green Bay could lead Denver by a healthy margin for most of the game which should mean more carries for Starks. However, Starks was horrible in week three as he averaged less than half a yard per carry and lost a fumble. Moreover, Denver’s run defense is actually pretty good. While it’s true that Oakland lit them up on the ground, they shut down Cedric Benson and Chris Johnson, and the only player to run for a touchdown against them was a quarterback (Jason Campbell). I could also see this one turning into a bit of a shootout and Starks not getting the expected mop up carries.
WR Start: Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (Week 4: @ Green Bay)
As I said, I could see this game being a bit of a shootout. And while Starks might not end up getting some extra touches, that doesn’t mean Denver isn’t going to have to throw a ton in this one. Eric Decker saw the most targets for Denver last week, but for now I’m chalking that up to Lloyd just returning from an injury. He’s off the injury report this week, so hopefully he’ll be the most targeted of Kyle Orton’s options this week against a Green Bay defense that has given up an average of 27.3 fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season.
WR Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (Week 4: Minnesota)
Bowe was a candidate for regression coming into this year as he was unlikely to repeat his 15 touchdown total from a year ago and it was unlikely that Matt Cassel could manage not to suck again. With Jamaal Charles going down for the year, Kansas City’s passing game (complete with a sucky Matt Cassel) no longer has the benefit of an excellent running game to take away some of the pressure. But Bowe has managed to extend his fortunate run into 2011 with two double digit fantasy point performances in the first three weeks. I don’t expect it to continue this week against a Vikings team that has kept a couple of #1 receivers in check (held Vincent Jackson to three points and held Mike Williams to zero).
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (Week 4: @ Dallas)
It seems that I can’t write a single fantasy football article without making at least one reference to ProFootballFocus.com, and this article is no different. They guys at PFF have developed a set of criteria in order to determine which TE’s will put up consistent numbers going forward. With Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates out, only seven TE’s meet the criteria, and Pettigrew is one of them (along with Gronkowski, Graham, Keller, Witten, Finley, and Davis). Pettigrew also has a nice matchup against a Dallas defense that is one of only eight teams to allow an average of ten fantasy points to tight ends.
TE Sit: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (Week 4: @ Seattle)
Gonzalez had his lowest reception total since 2002 last season and his lowest yardage total since he became a starter in 1998. He has also managed only six touchdown catches in each of the last two seasons. Two of his touchdowns this season came against an Eagles team that has a tough time defending tight ends. With all that in mind, it’s easy to see that Gonzalez will not be able to sustain his current touchdown rate. And his value is tied to those touchdowns as the points accumulated via his three touchdown catches account for more than half of his fantasy points this season (18 of 34). When the touchdown faucet gets turned off, Gonzalez’s value will be minimal. His opponent this week, Seattle, has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends so far and fared well against the one elite tight end they faced (held Vernon Davis to 47 yards on five receptions).
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would start Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate article and sit the article above. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
Tags: 2011 Fantasy Football, Sit Em Start Em, Lineup Advice, Brett Talley, Week 4, Week Four, Frank Gore, Rex Grossman, Tony Romo, James Starks
 Kevin Kolb (credits below) QB Start: Kevin Kolb, Arizona
Though he seems to have a fumbling problem (3 in two weeks), Kolb has also put up 18 and 16 points, respectively, in the first two weeks. His opponent this week, the Seahawks, have yet to intercept a pass, and made Alex Smith look good in Week One. Kolb can certainly air it out, and I expect him to put up good numbers.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo. The Bills should be playing from behind, and the Patriots have shown they can be thrown on (416 yards allowed in Week One, 378 yards in Week Two).
QB Sit: Sam Bradford, St. Louis
Like the Steelers, the Ravens are smarting after an inexplicable loss last week, to the Titans. But even more smart-worthy than that is the 358 yards that Matt Hasselback threw for, even though the Titans led most of the game. The Ravens’ pass defense will be sure to show up for this one, and cover whoever’s left in the Rams wide receiving corps.
RB Start: Darren Sproles, New Orleans
Clearly not the Saints’ running back, Sproles has proven to be an invaluable member of the passing attack, with 15 catches and a touchdown in the first two weeks (scoring 13 and 11 points in the process). The Texans’ defense boasts some pretty darn good cornerbacks in Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson, so a lot of checkdowns are in order…and Sproles in the king of the swing pass/check down. Especially for those of you in PPR leagues, Sproles is the man.
RB Sit: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England
The law firm is just too inconsistent for my taste. Yes, he’s put up a touchdown two straight weeks, but he isn’t a passing threat (1 catch total this season) and his rushing totals can range from minimal (7 in Week One) to moderate (17 in Week Two). As long as he’s sharing time with Little Danny Woodhead, I’d stay away from BJGE.
WR Start: Deion Branch, New England.
Quite simply, with Aaron Hernandez out, a lot of the possession receptions will go his way. He’s still the Pats’ #2 receiver, and gets a big leg up with the absence of the other young tight end.
WR Sit: Hakeem Nicks, New York Football Giants
He’s (supposedly) not injured, but I still wouldn’t touch him. Between not having Manningham on the other side (who on Earth is Victor Cruz????), and facing the top cornerback threesome in the league (Asomugha, Samuel, Rodgers-Cromartie), and having to be thrown by Eli Manning, Nicks is not even in my top 35 receivers this week.
TE Start: Randy McMichael, San Diego
The old Dolphin fills in for Antonio Gates, and I can’t believe that just because Gates isn’t playing, QB Philip Rivers will stop throwing to his tight end. He might not put up Gates numbers, but if you don’t have an obvious top-5 choice at tight end, or if you’re in a salary cap league, McMichael is a good cheap short-term pickup.
Honorable Mention: Fred Davis, Washington. A) I really do think he’s for real; B) I really do think Cooley’s on his last leg; and c) The Cowboys got burned by Dustin Keller in Week One, and Davis and Keller are employed very similarly in their respective offenses.
TE Sit: Scott Chandler, Buffalo
Everyone’s favorite tight end gem, Chandler has 7 receptions this season, comprising 87.5% of his career receptions. The problem, of course, is that he’s been in the league since 2009, and isn’t really all that good. And when you consider that the Patriots held Anthony Fasano scoreless in Week One and held the Gates/McMichael combo to 1 catch last week, Chandler is not a good bet to score. And if he doesn’t score, well, he’s not really worth very much at all. So, the logic goes, sit him.
Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Jesse’s NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em and in the meantime, follow him on Twitter @jessemendelson and The Fantasy Fix @thefantasyfix.
And don’t forget that for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!(August 10, 2011 - Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Jesse Mendelson, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 3, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit
 Cadillac Williams (credits below) RB Start: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis ColtsKerry Collins did not exactly acquit himself well last week, and Addai’s facing the same defense that allowed the Bengals to rush for 140 yards in Week 1. I expect Addai to get the ball early and often and poke some more holes in that Brownies defense. RB Sit: Cadillac Williams, St. Louis Rams
He did have a good game last week, and everyone’s suddenly jumping on the Cadillac bandwagon in the event S-Jax can’t go. But don’t start Caddy! His last 100 yard performance came in December 2009, and his last multi-touchdown game was a year before that. I don’t see the Giants putting up another stinker; park the Cadillac.QB Start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh SteelersDon’t let last week’s game fool you – Ben is still a top QB, and still has great weapons at his disposal. And it’s the home opener, where the Steelers always play well. And don’t forget he’s playing the same Seahawks who didn’t force a single turnover or register a sack last week. To stave off the buzzards, I think Big Ben comes through with a bounce-back performance.
QB Sit: Matt Ryan, Atlanta FalconsI know he threw for 319 yards last week, but he also threw for no scores, even though the Falcons were playing from behind the whole game. And this week, he gets the Eagles, who looked very good in shutting down the Rams and holding Sam Bradford to 188 yards and no scores. I think the Falcons will try to run more than pass, and when they do pass, its tough sledding. Sit Matty Ice if you can.WR Start: Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints Marques Colston out + home opener on turf = big game for Mr. Henderson. You’ve gotta love his MO – run fast down sideline, catch ball, score touchdown. With Lance Moore probably still out, and only Robert Meachem to take catches away, run with Devery.
WR Sit: Miles Austin, Dallas CowboysCall me crazy, but Miles has never had to play without a legit WR2 on the other side of the field, and with Dez Bryant out for Sunday’s game against the Niners, and with how deep the WR field is, I think Austin sees double-teams all day, opening space for…
TE Start: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys & BOTH Zach Millers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks
Coming off a huge game against the Jets in Week 1 (6 catches for 110 yards), I expect Romo to find a lot of room in the middle of the field as the Niners work overtime to stop Miles Austin on the outside and Felix Jones out of the backfield.
The Jags’ Miller, meanwhile, steps into the lineup for the injured Marcedes Lewis, and gets to face the same Jets defense that Witten tore apart in Week 1. Between the less-than-stellar Luke McCown starting, and the Jets’ excellent cornerbacks patrolling the outside, Miller could be a great check-down option and a good start.
As for the Seahawks’ Miller, did you see what the Ravens’ Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta did to the Steelers last week? (It was 7 catches, 104 yards and a TD). Obviously, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t half the QB Joe Flacco is, but tight ends have always given the Steelers fits. And without Sidney Rice in the lineup, and the Steelers sure to be in Jackson’s face all day, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miller score.
TE Sit: Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins
I know its only one week, but we may have seen the changing of the guard in Washington last week with Fred Davis’ 5 catches and 105 yards to Cooley’s 2 catches for 21 yards. Davis was drafted to provide a stretch-the-field tight end threat, something Cooley hasn’t been for a little while now. And given the Panthers success in throwing deep against the Cardinals in Week 1, expect the field stretcher to get more looks than the old standby.
Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Jesse’s NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em and in the meantime, follow him on Twitter @jessemendelson and The Fantasy Fix @thefantasyfix. And don’t forget that for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
(December 26, 2009 - Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images North America)
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Jesse Mendelson, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 2, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit
 RB Start: Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins
Sidelined from week 9-13 with a hamstring injury, Torain has returned with a vengeance.
With no competition for snaps restraining his productivity, he ran for 172 yards on 24 carries vs. Tampa Bay in week 14, and posted 98 all-purpose yards and a TD last week at Dallas.
In six games as the starting running back he's compiled 500 yards rushing (83 per game).
Renowned as a downhill, one cut runner, Torain has seven runs of 20+ yards in 126 carries, and is averaging 4.9 yards per rush on the season.
While not a huge factor out of the backfield, he does have 15 receptions, six going for first down yardage and two scores.
Grossman was quite content in checking down to him last week.
I've been fading the dreadful Jacksonville pass defense all season, but they haven't exactly bottled up the run either. The Jags have allowed 116 rush yards per game (4.6 per carry) and 15 touchdowns. They were pierced for 155 yards last week by the Colts anemic ground game.
Torain has proven capable of monstrous fantasy weeks, and this is a golden opportunity to tack on another against the Jaguar piñata.
Sit him at your own risk.
RB Sit: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns
The waiver wire hero has developed a true cult following. He's amassed the second most fantasy points of any RB (behind only Arian Foster) and has been a savior for many fantasy squads.
Nevertheless, Hillis suffered a rough patch earlier in the year, and his performance is dipping once again at the most inopportune time.
He's an absolute beast, but this workload is foreign territory and he takes (and dishes out) a beating week in week out.
He averaged 111 rushing yards per game in November, but that figure has dropped to 75 in December.
His last three games: 18 carries for 57 yards (seven receptions for 22), 21 carries for 108 yards against the bewildered Buffalo run defense and 14 carries for 59 yards last week.
He's been held out of the end zone for three successive weeks, as he, and he alone, has been the focus of the opponents defensive game plan.
Hillis has suffered with fumblitis as well, fumbling eight times and losing five.
He torched Baltimore in the first meeting for 144 rushing yards (48 yarder, longest given up by Ravens this season) and seven catches. The Ravens have since righted the ship, however, ranking 5th against the run, holding the opposition to 94 yards per game and five touchdowns. They held the Saints to a paltry 27 yards last week.
It's not easy to sit a fantasy phenom, but sometimes the situation calls for making difficult decisions.
 QB Start: Jon Kitna, Dallas Cowboys
At 38 years of age, Kitna is producing like a QB in the prime of his career.
In nine starts since Tony Romo's injury he has four 300+ yard games and five multi-touchdown games.
Kitna has led the Cowboys rejuvenated offense to 27 or more points in six straight weeks, throwing 11 TD's against four interceptions during that 4-2 stretch.
His comfort level with tight end Jason Witten continues to augment each week, and he's spreading the wealth all over the gridiron (eight different receivers in week 14 and seven last week).
Kitna's 18.4 fantasy points per week (according to standard Yahoo scoring) eclipse the 17.9 of Matt Ryan and 17.5 of Joe Flacco.
There's no reason to believe he won't at the very least match that figure against an Arizona pass defense that ranks 23rd allowing 228 yards per game, rarely putting opposing quarterback's under pressure (26 sacks). They also haven't faced a dynamic passing offense since New Orleans in week five.
Kitna and co. should move the rock at will.
QB Sit: Matt Casell, Kansas City Chiefs
Cassel appeared reasonably healthy last week just 11 days removed from an appendectomy. His health, albeit, has no impact on this sit recommendation.
Cassel's 24:5 TD:INT rate is extremely impressive, but he amassed huge touchdown weeks against questionable, at best, secondaries in SF, HOU, DEN, SEA (14 of his 24 scores to be exact).
Outside of his ability to connect in the end zone, he's provided limited fantasy appeal (10th rated QB).
He's averaging 206 yards per contest with seven games below 200 yards, and has cracked the 300-yard plateau just once (469 on 53 attempts).
The Chiefs are a running, ball control style offense, with a high frequency of conservative passes–then taking an occasional deep shot with Dwayne Bowe.
Tennessee's secondary won't be bated into a big play, as they keep everything in front of them and rely on making a quick tackle. The Titans allow 65 percent completions, but only 6.8 yards per attempt.
Over the course of the game yards can be accumulated, but a strict regimen of pass is required. That is not Kansas City's style. They'd prefer to grind it out on the ground.
If you have another viable option for championship week, utilize it.
 WR Start: Santonio Holmes, New York Jets
Against elite level defenses you need to pass to establish the run.
Hopefully the Jets came to grips with this phenomenon last week. They still played the game relatively close to the vest, but gave quarterback Mark Sanchez more opportunities to leave his imprint on the outcome.
The same approach will be necessary this week at Chicago, which is excellent news for Holmes owners. He proved last week that he's capable of taking on the role of "security blanket" (six catches for 40 yards) and has been targeted 84 times in ten games.
But make no mistake; his true value lies in his acclaimed game-breaking ability.
Holmes has nine receptions of 20 or more yards in the last seven weeks (including four over 35 yards).
While Sanchez doesn't always throw the ball accurately in the intermediate routes, he throws an aesthetically pleasing deep ball.
If the Jets can run successfully early on, that will open shots down the field to Holmes (and Braylon Edwards).
The Bears secondary allows easy completions (62 percent) and yardage (221 per game), but stiffen up on the goal line allowing only 12 air scores.
*Monitor turf toe as game day approaches.
WR Sit: Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
The media/fantasy hype surrounding Britt is spiraling out of control. 353 of his 601 receiving yards and three of his seven touchdowns came in a two-week period.
Outside of those two explosive efforts, he's missed four and a half weeks with a hamstring injury and was held below 41 yards in five games. He did crack the goal line in five successive weeks between three-seven, but his high-reception game was five, and high-yardage output was 86.
He's only seeing six targets per week (54 total), albeit was targeted nine times last week against Houston's invisible coverage.
Tennessee is still a predominantly rushing offense unless they fall behind early. Their passing attack will never be classified as efficient, with Collins averaging 195 yards in five games started.
The reward is high (18 yards per catch) but the risk of a no-show is very real.
In three games against the AFC West (left the San Diego game with injury) he has three total receptions.
The Kansas City pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, but that standing is on the upturn behind talented young corners. They allow only 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Don't let the talking heads alter your decision. Britt is NOT a must-start.
 TE Start: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lewis has broken through in his fifth NFL season, and it would be apropos for him to finish his masterpiece in style.
He's eighth amongst tight ends in receptions with 51, sixth in yardage with 637, second in touchdowns with nine and third in total fantasy points.
He's yet to surpass the 70-yard mark in any game this year, but has seven games above 50 yards.
He has been the definition of consistent, always finding a way to reward his fantasy owners.
He's the made the most of his 75 targets, with at least one 15-yard reception in 13 of 14 weeks and eight 20+ yard plays.
The Redskins pass defense is tied for 30th allowing 263 yards per contest. Kellen Winslow hauled in a 41-yard TD pass against them in week 14, and Jason Witten cut them to ribbons last week for ten catches, 140 yards and a score.
Start Lewis with comfort.
TE Sit: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
In three and 3/4 games with Drew Stanton behind center, Pettigrew has been a non-factor.
In week six at the Giants he caught four balls for 46 yards (after Hill went out with injury), and in Stanton's three December starts he has a composite nine receptions for 75 yards.
He was targeted nine times in week 13, but has been lost in the shuffle the last two outings.
Pettigrew ranks third amongst TE in receptions with 64, but loses much of his luster without Stafford/Hill tossing him the rock. He hasn't crossed the goal line since week nine.
Outside of Ben Watson's 10-catch for 100 yards and a TD effort in week 13, the Dolphins have kept opposing tight ends under wraps all season.
Seek a more secure option with established QB play.
*Latest report is that Shaun Hill (broken finger) took first-team reps on Wednesday. He’ll have to shake off the rust regardless, and does not change this recommendation.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'EmFollow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfixor for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 14, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit, Jon Kitna, Matt Casell, Ryan Torain, Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Kenny Britt, Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Pettigrew, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions
 QB Start: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For an inexperienced quarterback Freeman sure doesn't make many mistakes. Only Tom Brady, Michael Vick, Matt Cassel and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown fewer interceptions than his total of six. He only has a single multi-pick performance on his game log and doesn't leave fantasy owners exposed.
Freeman has five two-touchdown games and has a thrown a TD in 12 of 13 weeks (17 overall). After a stretch of four straight games with 25 or fewer pass attempts, offensive coordinator Greg Olson has begun to take the reigns off. He aired it out 37 times against Baltimore and 38 against Atlanta before dipping back to 25 last time out. Freeman can always be counted on for at least one big play, including 64 and 41 last week on almost 18 yards per completion.
Detroit's pass defense is likely to oblige, allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (29th) and 21 scores. The Lions pass rush is a real threat, but the Tampa line has done a better job protecting the last five weeks surrendering only five sacks. Freeman's mobility (300 yards rushing) is just an added perk.
QB Sit: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
100+ QB ratings have become a regularity for Flacco since mid-season. He's consistently around the 250-yard mark and has thrown 11 touchdowns against two picks since November.
Despite the aesthetically pleasing numbers, however, there are reasons to take heed. The Ravens have been operating at a high level of efficiency in first halves of games, but have become ultra-conservative with even slim leads. They haven't scored an offensive touchdown in the second half since week ten. This style of game calling explains his lone 300-yard passing game, and really inhibits Flacco's ceiling as a fantasy QB. His rapport with star wideout Anquan Boldin has also faltered in recent weeks, leaving Derrick Mason as the go-to-guy.
That might fly against the Texans porous secondary, but not against New Orleans. The Saints rank 5th against the pass, and have intercepted more passes (9) than touchdowns allowed (8). They allow 199 passing yards per contest. This is by no means an easy SIT decision in a playoff week, but a marquee effort should not be anticipated.
 RB Start: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers ground game has been revitalized since week 12, and Stewart has been the primary beneficiary. The last three weeks he's run 12 for 98, 21 for 92 and a TD and 18 for 133. Keep in mind, entering this streak his previous high yardage game was 33, and his high carry game was 14. The gamebreaking runs are also beginning to surface, with runs of 48 and 42 last week alone. In the first eight weeks his longest run was 24 yards. Backup Mike Goodson has vultured touchdowns in each of the past two weeks, but has received just three and nine carries respectively.
Look for Carolina to pound the rock against an Arizona rush defense that ranks 30th, allowing 143 yards per game and 16 scores. They've allowed 100+ yards on the ground in five consecutive weeks, and seven out of eight. Stewart had a monster culmination to 2009, exploding for 589 yards and four TD's in the final five weeks. Healthy, and suddenly with holes to run through, another strong finish is in the cards.
RB Sit: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills
After successful recommendations in weeks 10 and 11, it's time for Jackson to take a seat. He bounced back from two poor efforts against Pittsburgh and Minnesota (101 combined yards) with 112 yards last week vs. Cleveland, but on 3.9 per rush.
The workhorse back wore out the Browns with 29 carries, but teams simply don't pound the ball with success against Miami. The Dolphins allow a measly 3.6 yards per carry, under 100 yards per game and have cracked on the goal line just six times. They shut down two power-running attacks the last two weeks in Cleveland and NYJ. Explosive runs are just not Jackson's style (long of 19 last three), and he needs a significant workload to leave an imprint (65-yard receiving TD aside).
With only three weeks remaining, it's time C.J. Spiller gets some experience heading into his sophomore campaign. He's received 15 composite carries the past two games. That figure should hit double digits this week.
 WR Start: Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts
Collie's official status for week 15 has not yet been released, but word is he could return after missing three weeks with a concussion. If he suits up, Collie's a more than reasonable 3rd wide receiver on fantasy squads, most notably in PPR leagues. He has at least five receptions in six of the eight games he's played.
Collie is Peyton Manning's security blanket, converting on 82% of his 61 targets (50 receptions). He also caught six touchdowns in the opening six weeks before the injury bug hit.
The Jaguars pass defense ranks 28th in the NFL allowing a league worst 8.7 yards per attempt, plus 258 yards per game and 24 air scores. The Raiders deficient passing game torched them for 324 yards and two touchdowns last week. Collie wasn't overly involved in the first meeting against Jacksonville with five catches for 39 yards, but did hit paydirt.
If healthy, he's an extremely safe option in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.
WR Sit: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
The 34-year old warrior has cultivated moments of brilliance, but consistency has been a far cry from last season's standard. Ward has caught only 49 balls on 75 targets, a significant decline from 95 and 136 last year. His "dud" performances have been far too frequent: 1/9, 2/14, 3/15, 3/10, 3/28, 1/13.
In games where he hasn't cracked the 100-yard mark, he hasn't even reached the 35-yard plateau. Outside of hitting the century mark against Buffalo, all of his big efforts have come against questionable secondaries (ATL, MIA, CIN). The old Hines Ward might up his level against a chat happy opponent on the big state, but that WR hasn't been present in 2010. This Hines Ward is averaging 49 yards per game.
The Jets pass D ranks 9th in the league holding opponents to 51% completions. They thwarted the Dolphins air attack last week, limiting them to a ridiculous 30 net passing yards.
 TE Start: Kevin Boss, New York GiantsBoss tied for the team high in targets last week with nine, catching four balls for 23 yards and touchdown. He hasn't been a PPR threat up to this point, but that could change in the final three weeks. With Steve Smith out for the season, and Mario Manningham banged up, there's a good chance traffic in his direction will escalate. The Giants recent embarrassment of opponents on the ground will only open up more opportunities down the seam (his speciality) in the play action passing game. Boss has caught all four of his scores in the last six weeks, and has three career touchdowns (19 receptions) in five career games against Philadelphia. TE Sit: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota VikingsNot an overly difficult decision based on the numbers, but many owners have been forced to utilize Shiancoe as a result of injuries. Look elsewhere. The Vikings quarterback situation is a complete wreck right now, and there's a good chance rookie scrambler Joe Webb gets the call. Regardless, Shiancoe hasn't been operative no matter who's been taking the snaps. He hasn't cracked the five-reception barrier since week two, and has hit 50 yards only twice during that time period. He's been nearly invisible the last two weeks with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. His red zone proficiency of yesteryear is no longer applicable.Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em
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 WR Start: Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings
It didn't take long for Rice to get back in the swing of things.
In just his third game back from a serious hip injury, he caught five balls (six targets) for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Even without Harvin by his side, he appeared close to his old "freak of nature" self, beating double-teams with relative ease and overmatching defenders with the ball in the air.
Rice saw 14 targets in his first two games with Brett Favre at quarterback, so regardless of who's behind center he'll receive plenty of traffic.
The Giants secondary has not looked sharp in recent weeks, frequently looking confused and blowing downfield assignments. The Redskins were unable to make them pay for their transgressions, but the Vikings will.
With the rust shaken off, and apparently fully healthy, Rice is set to make a major splash in the final four weeks.
WR Sit: Wes Welker, New England Patriots
There's no questioning Welker's high level of performance over the past four weeks: 28 receptions for 317 yards and four scores. Nevertheless, don't except a full-blown return to Moss era form.
In the three weeks prior he was held under five receptions and below 40 yards in each contest, and he was held out of the end zone between week three and week ten.
The Pats don't possess a feared field stretcher (Brandon Tate) to open up the inside for Welker. It hasn't stopped him lately, but makes his job exponentially more difficult.
Expect the Chicago pass defense (13th) to get aggressive with him at the line and limit his ability in space, especially in the red zone. The Bears held another excellent slot receiver, Davone Bess, to one reception for nine yards in week 11.
Welker is still Tom Brady's number one option (97 targets) but there's a lot of footballs to go around between tight ends and backs in that offense.
 QB Start: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
The "gunslinger" has performed brilliantly the last two weeks posting QB ratings of 146.2 and 117.0. While Cutler's pass attempts are on the decline, his decision-making has improved without hindering his calling card playmaking ability.
Since the Bears week eight bye he's tossed ten touchdowns against just three interceptions (5:0 last two weeks). Entering week 14 of last season he had already gifted 20 interceptions, double his current total of ten.
Wide receiver Earl Bennett has emerged as Cutler's security blanket, a dependable possession receiver to balance out Chicago's deep threats. The efficiency of their running attack has also opened up opportunities in the play action passing game and taken pressure off Cutler.
New England's 31st ranked pass defense is tailor made for the Bears style – they don't pressure the quarterback (21 sacks) and allow 67 percent completions.
QB Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills
His random four-touchdown performances haven't made a believer out of me. Yes, Fitzpatrick has a thrown at least one TD pass in every start this season, but overall production has regressed sharply.
Fitzpatrick's thrown an interception in six of his last seven games, including three games of two picks (fumbled three times last week, lost two). His big plays are often the result of scrambling and buying time and not within the Bills' offense. Obviously consistency will never be a strength in this freelance structure.
On the season Fitzpatrick averages just 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and his completion percentage of 58.3 ranks 26th in the league.
The Browns rank 20th against the pass, but are second in the NFL with 18 interceptions. They bottled up Chad Henne last week forcing a 37.8 QB rating and ballhawking for three picks. There will be no air explosion for "Mr. Harvard" this week.
 RB Start: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Concerns over his recent struggles in short yardage and goal line situations have surfaced, but he remains a MUST start in week 14.
Since taking over the primary ball carrying duties in week seven, Blount has rushed for 100 yards+ twice, 80 yards+ four times and hit paydirt four times.
He's coming off a 20-carry 103 yard outing against Atlanta's eighth ranked defense, and looked like a man amongst boys for much of the game.
This week's opponents, the Redskins, were thoroughly gashed by the Giants to the tune of 197 yards and four rushing scores last week. Brandon Jacobs broke runs of 39, 28 and compiled 13 yards per carry. Blount brings a similar power style to the table, only with a lower center of gravity and more speed.
If the 'Skins bring the same poor tackling effort on Sunday, they will get run through and run over.
RB Sit: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Lynch scored three touchdowns against Carolina's 27th ranked run defense last week, but don't get too excited. Gashing the Panthers on the ground has become commonplace. Two of his scores came on 1-yard runs, and four of his five touchdowns on the year have now come from a yard out.
Between weeks eight and twelve he ran for 147 yards (29 per game) on 40 carries (8 per game) with a single TD. In eight games since joining Seattle he's received under ten carries on three occasions, and been held under 50 yards six times. Explosive runs have been few and far between, with a measly three runs above 20 yards in 146 attempts.
Season best effort aside, scat back Justin Forsett will still eat away at his workload going forward. The San Francisco run defense has limited opponents to 3.6 yards per rush and only seven ground scores.
Don't hold your breath for a double dose of Marshawn magic.
 TE Start: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders
Miller has been utterly invisible since his week eight injury. Unbelievably, he hasn't recorded double-digit yardage in four games since, totaling five receptions for 28 yards.
The Raiders all but abandoned the passing game last week as he saw only one target. If they utilize the same tact against Jacksonville this week, they'll be making a massive judgment error. The Jags rank 27th against the pass and have allowed over 3,000 yards through the air (22 touchdowns).
Despite his abysmal efforts of late, it's difficult to sit a tight end with Miller's big play potential. He caught a pass of 20+ yards in six of the first seven weeks, and you simply won't find many TE's capable of that. He has a great opportunity to revisit those glory days this week, if his coordinator allows it.
TE Sit: Joel Dreessen, Houston Texans
It was originally believed that Dreessen could miss week 14, but his rib cage injury is just a bruise. He saw a significant eight targets and caught five balls for 63 yards at Philadelphia Thursday night, and hit paydirt in each of the prior two weeks (including a 100-yard game). However, his usage for Sunday is very much in question.
Owen Daniels is set to return, and while he's been entirely ineffective, he will surely take snaps away from Dreessen (and possibly start).
The Ravens have eliminated the tight end since their week eight bye: Anthony Fasano 3/26, Tony Gonzalez 4/38, Kellen Winslow 4/44 TD and Heath Miller 1/9.
He's given his owners a nice fantasy run, but avoid this likely time-split situation.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'EmFollow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfixor for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 14, QB Start, QB Sit, RB Start, RB Sit, WR Start, WR Sit, TE Start, TE Sit, Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills, LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks, Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings, Wes Welker, New England Patriots, Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders, Joel Dreessen, Houston Texans
 QB Start: Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
After failure to live up to the pre-season hype, Schaub has been forgotten in many fantasy circles. This could prove costly.
In his last three starts he's completed 66 percent of his passes, thrown five touchdowns against zero interceptions, averaged just shy of 250-yards and working to a 104.8 QB rating.
He was unable to connect on big plays against the "keep everything in front of you" Titans last week, but hit four 20+ pass plays at the Jets in week 11 and three at Jacksonville in week 12.
The emergence of TE Joel Dreessen has softened the blow of an underachieving group of secondary receivers.
Philadelphia's pass defense has allowed nine scores and forced eight picks since their week-nine bye. One way or the other, a meaningful play is being made.
Houston's offensive line has done a better job protecting Schaub in recent weeks (3 sacks in last three games) but will be in for a stern test against the Eagles (30 sacks).
*Eagles CB Asante Samuels is listed as questionable on the initial Wednesday injury report.
QB Sit: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard has declared his wrist "good to go" for week 13, but I'm not comforted.
The last month has been an up and down roller coaster ride for Garrard. Six touchdowns against zero interceptions the first two weeks, and two touchdowns four interceptions the last two. His QB ratings dropped from 157.8 and 134.1 to 65.1 and 57.1. The latter two performances are closer to his median level.
With Mike Sims-Walker not fully healthy, or at least not himself, the Jaguars lack of downfield weapons is all too apparent. Relying on your tight end for big plays is not a successful endeavor long term.
Garrard averaged just 4.6 yards per pass attempt last week at the Giants. He also fumbled three times, losing one (the game ender), and has now lost three fumbles in the last four weeks.
Quite simply, he's not being protected, and his past history against Tennessee is not aesthetically pleasing: 14 career starts, 11 touchdowns, 12 picks and 33 sacks.
It's a safe bet Garrard will have to utilize his legs with high frequency once again, running for his life rather than by choice.
 RB Start: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
The Bears finished November with a 52.9 percent run ratio, good for second in the NFL (Rotoworld.com). In those four games, Forte's ground productivity spiked dramatically rushing for 332 yards on 74 carries (4.5). He's still having difficulty finding the end zone, but he's chewing up big chunks of yardage for a change.
After having only one 20+ yard run in the season's opening seven weeks, he had four in November including two last week (61, 28).
His PPR value has gone way down, but let's flashback to opening Sunday versus Detroit: seven receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps this is the week to reintroduce him to the passing attack?
Success on the ground is expected against a Lions rush defense that ranks 24th and has allowed 13 rushing scores (third to last).
Finally getting an opportunity to spread his wings with regular work, Forte is thriving in a more balanced Chicago offense.
RB Sit: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets
What do you know; the old LT wasn't really 'back' after all.
Since the Jets week seven bye, his greatest impact has come in the passing game, catching 26 balls for 222 yards.
In the rush game, however, Tomlinson has been completely shut down and his workload is gradually decreasing. He hasn't cracked the 100-yard plateau since week four or the 60-yard mark since week five (high of 3.8 per carry).
In the last five weeks his longest run from scrimmage has been a whopping ten yards. That is scary.
Even scarier for his fantasy owners is the 53:43 carry split, now in favor of Shonn Greene.
LT for rushed for 76 yards on nearly seven per rush in week two versus New England, but the Jets philosophy has undergone minor reconstruction since then, putting more trust in their quarterback. The Patriots rank smack in the middle of the pack against the run allowing 110 yards per game. In a non-PPR league, Tomlinson's value is extremely limited.
 WR Start: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
With only five plays of 20+ yards and three 100-yard games in 2010, Moss is no longer the electric downfield threat he once was.
With that said, he's a first down machine and reliable possession receiver, and is on pace to decimate his previous career high in receptions. He has 62 catches on the year (8th) and has hauled in at least five passes in nine of 11 games. His 94 targets also rank in the top 15.
December has been his most productive month statistically, with 150 receptions and 14 touchdowns as winter rolls in.
Although held quiet the last two seasons, he's had tremendous career success against the Giants with eight scores in 11 games. New York boasts the number one pass defense in the league, but played too conservative last week. They allowed Jacksonville to convert ten third-downs, most through the air in short and manageable situations. If they come out with a similar game plan this week, Moss should be in for a heavy traffic day in the short/intermediate routes.
WR Sit: Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
Ochocinco stills ranks seventh in the league with 103 targets, but he's come down with the reception on only 52 percent of passes thrown his way. Of his 54 receptions, 22 of them came in a two-game window, which also happen to be his only two 100-yard receiving games on the season.
The ugly numbers are beginning to pile up i.e. seven games below 50 yards, eight games below five receptions and only four catches of 20+. The Bengals pass offense hasn't been dreadful (11th), but Ochocinco's contributions to the cause have been far from consistent.
The New Orleans secondary has become a legitimate wide receiver killer. Their corners are playing at a freakishly high level, holding opponents to seven air scores and 198 yards per game.
Ochocinco will turn 33-years of age in January, so it's not unrealistic to believe the tail end of his career is approaching.
 TE Start: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles
Signs of life from Brent Celek have been few and far between, but last week was encouraging.
After catching a bagel against the Giants in week 11, Celek rebounded to haul in three balls for 50 yards and a touchdown at Chicago. More importantly, he was targeted eight times by Michael Vick, including a few downfield shots.
Houston's 31st ranked pass defense has allowed 25 touchdowns (NFL worst), which certainly doesn't hurt his cause for start consideration.
Nevertheless, this recommendation does not come without its caveats. Celek has posted four games below ten yards and is amongst the leaders in dropped passes. Potential for high reward is there, but a clunker is not out of the realm.
TE Sit: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens
Heap has quietly been one of the hottest tight ends around. After taking a 65-yard pass to the house last week, Heap now has five touchdowns in the last six weeks.
His performance, however, has been considerably above his proven standard.
He's been making big plays left and right, as his 15-yard per reception average is dwarfing his 11.7 career mark. Expecting this pace to continue is unreasonable, and he doesn't get enough targets (59) to make up the fantasy points elsewhere. His season high for game yardage is 79, and high for receptions is six (week one).
Outside of what would have to be considered a fluke performance by Rob Gronkowski, the Steelers have bottled up opposing TE's. A tough sit given his current level, but the cooling process begins in week 13.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'EmFollow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfixor for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 13, Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, Joel Dreessen, David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars, Mike Sims-Walker, Matt Forte, Chicago Bears, LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Washington Redskins, Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals, Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles, Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens, Rob Gronkowski
 WR Start: Mario Manningham, New York Giants
The Giants wide receiver position has been ravaged by injuries. With Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out, Manningham will get a major boost in targets, and defensive attention.
Even with a full compliment of wideouts Manningham received 55 targets, and his rapport with Manning continues to augment week by week.
He has developed into a dynamic, big-play weapon with a 25+yard reception in seven of the eight games he's played.
After a ten-reception performance in week ten (16 targets), Manningham was targeted only three times last week. He should see a bounce back in activity against Jacksonville's putrid 28th ranked pass defense that's allowed 67 percent completions and 20 touchdowns through the air.
He's been presented with a golden opportunity to be "the man", and judging by his clutch ability, he will respond admirably.
WR Sit: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts
After exploding onto the scene in 2009-2010, Garcon has reverted back to raw form. He's second in the league in dropped passes, and appears to have lost confidence in his skills.
Even with Dallas Clark out (and Austin Collie missing time), Garcon is still seeing a decrease in traffic his direction (70 targets). Quite simply, Manning doesn't trust him.
He's capable of the spectacular, but those moments have been few and far between.
Garcon has been held scoreless and without a 20-yard reception for four consecutive weeks. His meal ticket was the deep ball, and that has all but vanished.
On the season, he has just one touchdown and one 100-yard game.
His luck is unlikely to change this week against the Chargers number one rated pass defense. They've held opposing quarterbacks to a 74.8 QB rating and have allowed nine touchdowns against nine interceptions.
Sitting a wideout on a team quarterbacked by Manning is not an easy decision, but it's the prudent one.
 QB Start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
In six starts since his return from suspension Roethlisberger has fallen into a pattern: two good, two bad, two good. If the pattern continues he's on pace for a poor effort on Sunday, but six games doesn't make a trend.
He followed up two sub-200 yard efforts with 387 (296 in the fourth quarter) and 275 in his last two starts with seven composite touchdowns. He also ran for 55 yards against Oakland, the largest single-game rushing figure of his career.
Overall, Roethlisberger sports the number three passer rating in the NFL at 101.9 and a 12:4 touchdown to interception rate.
Pittsburgh's offensive attack is more pass heavy than in years past, utilizing the big play with speed on the outside. Mike Wallace caught long balls of 52 (TD), 37 and 27 last week and Big Ben averaged 9.5 yards per attempt.
Buffalo's pass defense ranks a respectable tenth, but that says more about their 32nd ranked rush defense than the quality of secondary play. They've allowed 20 passing touchdowns against just four interceptions forced (two last week).
QB Sit: Jon Kitna, Dallas Cowboys
Kitna has posted 124.1 and 129.7 QB ratings over the last two weeks. Despite only 46 total pass attempts in those starts, he's thrown six touchdown passes (one interception) and ran for a seventh score.
There's no doubt he's played solid football, but his scores the last two weeks have largely been the result of yardage after the catch and tremendous field position. He threw for only 147 yards last week, frequently looking to dump off in the face of Detroit's pressure (one completion over 20 yards).
Like most quarterbacks, pass rush, or lack thereof, usually determines his fate.
When the pocket collapses he's considerably more careless with the football. The Saints pass rush has been ordinary this season (19 sacks), but they're pass defense (2nd) has been anything but. They've allowed a paltry seven touchdowns through the air and just 186 yards per game.
Kitna's touchdown barrage ends here against the velcro coverage of New Orleans.
 RB Start: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots
Green-Ellis is not an explosive ball carrier, but he makes every touch count.
In the eight games which he's received ten or more carries he's reached the end zone is six of them. In five games with 15+ carries he's averaging 93.8 yards per game and 5.3 per carry. He's a solid bet to hit the 20-carry mark for the second time this season on Thanksgiving, which will equate to productivity.
The Lions rush defense ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 131 yards per contest, 4.6 per carry and 11 touchdowns. Detroit struggled to contain a similar power-style back in Fred Jackson (25-133) two weeks back.
The Pats still favor the pass but are certainly not opposed to exploiting the weakness of their opponent. Danny Woodhead might take a handful of carries, but BJGE is the man in the running game.
Don't expect a sudden PPR surge, it's not his strength (despite four receptions at Pitt in week ten).
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The rookie has run the ball impressively since being handed over the reigns in week seven, but he'll face a different animal this week.
The Ravens and their ninth rated ground defense have held their three opponents since the bye to 253 net rushing yards (albeit 120 last week).
Blount was unable to get going against a pinching Atlanta run defense in week nine (13-46) and was held to 3.2 yards per rush last week at San Francisco.
Baltimore will almost certainly force the game into young Josh Freeman's hands on the road in a hostile environment. He hasn't been mistake prone (five interceptions) but he hasn't been asked to carry the load either (25 or less attempts in four straight weeks).
The Ravens will aim to take Blount out of the mix and let their ballhawk secondary go to work.
The Bucs have only seven rushing scores on the season, and the Baltimore D has only allowed five. Can you say reality check?
 TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
In his second season, Pettigrew is blossoming into one of the premiere tight ends in the NFL.
He's fifth amongst TE's in targets with 74, and has thrived with Shaun Hill behind center. In Hill's seven starts he's caught 44 balls (six per game) for 455 yards (65 yards per game). Oddly enough, however, he's hauled two of his three touchdowns with Stafford at quarterback. Nevertheless, fantasy owners can be confident that Pettigrew will be heavily involved in the offensive game plan.
The Patriots haven’t been overly exposed by the TE, but Heath Miller (5-60) and Jacob Tamme (7-60) made some noise the last two weeks.
TE Sit: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lewis has been a fantasy godsend, second behind only Antonio Gates in touchdowns at the tight end position with eight. With that said, the injury to Mike Sims-Walker could have a marked impact on his success going forward.
The focus of opposing defenses will shift from Sims-Walker to Lewis, and space in the middle will be tougher to carve out.
The Jags also plan on utilizing more two tight end sets with Zach Miller (the other one), which should detrimentally impact his targets.
Since their bye week, the Giants have held John Carlson to two catches for nine yards, Jason Witten to one catch for seven yards and Brent Celek to nada. The Garrard/Lewis combination has been over performing to put it mildly, and the joyride ends here.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'EmFollow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfixor for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 12, Ben Roethelisberger, Jon Kitna, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeGarrette Blount, Mario Manningham, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Bucaneers, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
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