Fantasy Sports Advice, Analysis and Projections | The Fantasy Fix
 
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Well????Fantasy owners love to use the “What have you done for me lately” approach to management of their teams.  So, how can you use that to your advantage?  In no other month will you see statistics that truly overvalue, and under appreciate scrubs and stars.   For example:   35 players are batting over .333 (15 of which are hitting .360 or better).  Obviously this type of production is not sustainable.  Yet you would be surprised how many owners in your leagues look at these numbers and think just that.  Essentially they gamble, but fantasy baseball championships are won with calculated decision making. Who to look for, and who to trade:
  1. Scott Podsednik
  2. Ivan Rodriguez
  3. Martin Prado
  4. Franklin Gutierrez
  5. Casey McGehee
Above represents 5 of the top 6 MLB batting average leaders through Tuesday.  Also, the first 5 players who should be traded this week.Try to steal:
  1. MarkTeixeira  / Prince Fielder (Obviously, always worth a try)
  2. Ian Kinsler / Jacoby Ellsbury(The wounded antelopes)
  3. Adam Dunn (Model of Consistency)
  4. Adam Jones  (Serious Young Talent)
  5. Jose Lopez (Versatile and Consistent)
This should get you started on the right path, but dig deeper and you may find some even nicer deals.

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Mechanic, Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
 
April Playoffs 04/19/2010
 
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It’s not the moves at the end of the season that will keep you playing in September (Fantasy’s October Baseball).  Just like the stock market, people make adds and drops early on because of emotion, and not logic.  In many of your leagues this jockeying has probably already started.  People get overexcited and grab the next hot thing off the waiver wire.  Sound familiar? 

* Jose Guillen, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Podsednik, etc. 

The Law of Averages is one thing you can count on in baseball.  There are certain things you can come to expect from certain players, year in and year out.  Yet every year some of the most consistently productive players end up cut halfway through April.   For example, in one of my leagues Nick Swisher, and Paul Konerko both just got cut for their April baby slumps.  These are 28-30 HR potential guys on good teams with lots of protection.   They may not have the sexy names like you see in the first round, but you can count on the returns they will provide.    Try to look for Veterans 28 – 34 years old who averaged approximately 500 ABs in the last 3 seasons, and who performed consistently above average.  Finding this type of value early on will take a lot of the stress off in late July.

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Sports Blog, Kansas City Royals, Jose Guillen, The Fantasy Mechanic
 
The Injury Fix 06/24/2009
 
When you look at your roster, and see that red DL do you ask yourself:  “WHEN IS HE COMING BACK?”

We all have the resources to find out this information, but what are some solutions?  To start we need to evaluate a few criteria:
 
  • Current Roster Space (Open Bench Spots)
  • Remaining Healthy Talent
  • Position Strength
  • Free Agents
  • Type and Determined Length of Injuries
In most of my leagues there is a cap on how many pickups I can make.  Therefore, I tend to leave a roster spot or two open in my deeper leagues if I’m not impressed with the available talent.  This helps when I run out of DL spots.  Having players on your roster just for the sake of taking up space or storage is not a winning strategy. 

Many leagues tend to have 10-12 starting offensive players, and 5-7 starting pitchers / relievers.  Playing in the popular H2H format, and having one of your starting players on the DL isn’t the end world. You’re only losing out on average21-23 at bats, or one pitching start.  In a good week you may lose out on 9-10 hits, but on average it’s probably only 6-7.  True…you miss out on some Runs RBIs and SB, but if your other players are firing on all cylinders it’s usually not substantial enough to matter.  Very rarely do I lose my hitting categories by 1 Run or 1 RBI.  Over the course of a 22-24 week season it is worth the risk to conservatively manage your moves.  Think about it, if a guy steals 30 bases in a season that’s an average of 1.5 a week, if he has 100 Runs or RBIs that’s a hair more than 4 per week.   My suggestion:   do not to make rash pickups, and save your moves for when you really need them.

 If the player who went down plays a position that is easily replaceable, then it’s worth considering replacing them altogether.  Baseball injuries tend to be reoccurring, and nag the player throughout the season.    This affects their efficiency, and makes them a long-term liability.  I tend to take this approach with 3 & 4th tier players, not yearly tier 1 & 2 type talent.   Players enjoying career years who have never made a splash like this before should also be considered a liability. Never be fooled by shallow past results, winning fantasy baseball is about calculating future predictability, not name recognition and short term performance.   This year second base, catcher and shortstop are very top heavy with talent, and depth has been difficult to find. 

Sometimes I feel like I’m in med school when I learn one of my players went on the DL with a new injury. It always drove me crazy when an injury like turf toe kept my starter out for 6 weeks.  The most important thing I’ve learned is to always take the latter of the expected return dates.  I believe doctors give 2 dates, one the player wants to hear, and one the team needs to prepare for.  I’d rather plan for the worst, so if the dr. says 6-8 weeks go with the 8 weeks.  Plus, the heart of today’s athlete just isn’t what it used to be.