2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 Brett Talley is joined by the owner of FB365.com, Charlie Saponara, to break down the info coming out of mock drafts to help you start prepping for you 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. Brett and Charlie discuss what positions are deep and what positions are shallow, when you should target your first starter and first reliever, and who might be a candidate to bounce back. Lots of names are brought up and a lot of good info is disseminated. Listen below by pressing play, or search "The Fantasy Fix" on iTunes and download the podcast to listen on your iPhone or iPod. Be sure to follow Brett on Twitter @theRealTal, and also TheFantasyFix.com on Twitter @TheFantasyFix for all your fantasy football needs. Add Comment  Asdrubal Cabrera (credits below) Which 5 Shortstop should you stay away from in 2012? I have said it time and time again; the most scarce fantasy baseball position is shortstop. With only 5, maybe 6, top tier players at the position, the drop off between that 6th and 7th guy is so much that it could cost your team the season. Being on top of the best available players as you creep through the draft is imperative to a winning season. The wrong shortstop could literally cripple your offensive output and put you into a major bind. The following group of players isn’t necessarily players I wouldn’t draft, but players I wouldn’t take as my starting option. Top 5 Shortstop to stay away from in 2012: For the first player on my do not draft list, 2011 was incredibly generous to him. So generous, that he SHATTERED career numbers. Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, CLE) posted 25 homers, nearly twice as many as he had in his career up to that point. He also drove in 92, scored 87, and stole 17 bases - all career high numbers. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s break out year reminds me way too much of another middle infielder that had similar career lows only to break out in one insane offensive year, Aaron Hill (2B, ARI). After Hill’s career year (2009) he began to slip back to his old self, and I am afraid that Cabrera will do the same thing. Keep Cabrera off your rosters, unless you need to fill a middle infield or utility spot...he isn’t worth your starting SS spot. As of late, Rafael Furcal (SS, STL) has come into some major issues with staying healthy. Furcal has completed 100 games just once over the last three seasons, and with the emergence of Dee Gordon (SS, LA) Furcal was shipped out to St. Louis to play with the now Pujols-less Cardinals. Furcal is 34 this year, and with age comes slower speed, quicker break downs, and decrease in ability. He shouldn’t be considered for anyone’s opening day fantasy rosters. Don't forget to check out our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. It's our best yet, with ranks, auction values, and insights from some of the best names in the game!  The Shortstop merry-go-round continues in Boston as they ship off once touted prospect Jed Lowrie (SS, HOU) to Houston in a deal that netted the Sox former hyped Yankee prospect Mark Melancon (RP, BOS). In four MLB seasons however Lowrie was never able to truly get things going. Lowrie only has 808 career at bats at the Major league level, but with only 19 home runs, 117 RBI and a .252 career average. He will certainly be in a bit of a friendlier hitting park but not by much. Don’t draft Lowrie unless desperate, as he will only disappoint. Our next participant will definitely help you in the steals category, but will do absolutely nothing else for your fantasy squad. Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) was thought to be the next Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) – a combination of average, minimal pop and 20+ stolen bases. Well, he got the steals down pat, but he hasn’t been able to put together anything else. In nearly 1200 Major League at bats Escobar has a .252 average and a .294 on base percentage, only 9 homers and 98 runs batted in and with minimal offense behind him runs scored will be limited as well. Our final shortstop to stay away from comes from the confines of San Diego. Jason Bartlett (SS, SD) has had a pretty nice career for himself, despite being bounced around to now three different teams. Last year’s .245 average may be a bit of an abnormality however, I just can’t take that chance. Bartlett has decent speed and has eclipsed the 20 SB mark on several occasions, and normally his average is much better than a year ago. But he has absolutely no power, which only gets hurt more by the very spacious ball park he calls home, and with a pretty anemic offense either in front of him or behind him, don’t expect him to drive in many, or score many on his own. If Bartlett can get his average back to respectability he is worth a late round UTIL pick up, but nothing more than that. The shortstop position is growing with the youngsters Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX), Dee Gordon (SS, LA) and Starlin Castro (SS, CHC) among others, which is great for you as you prepare for your drafts. But it isn’t there yet, and you need to be cautious when drafting. Jump quick and early and get yourself a stud at the position, or you could be looking from the outside in come playoff time. (September 16, 2011 - Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images North America) Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for The Fantasy Fix. You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix  Adam Wainwright (Credits below) Here's a sneak peek from our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. Our guide will feature Positional Ranks, Auction Values and tons of useful articles like this... It’s inevitable. Each year players get hurt and miss the remainder of a season, or season entirely, and ends up getting lost in the shuffle come draft time the following year. An adept and well informed owner can use this to his advantage on draft day to get some mid to late round bargains. That being said, who may be forgotten about this year that could cause some face palming from your opponents when you spend your 17th round pick or later on someone who could hit 30 HR? You could target (in no particular order)… Adam Wainwright – Wainwright missed all of 2011 after having Tommy John surgery in February last year. The Cardinals are planning on him being a part of their opening day roster. When healthy Wainwright is a top 10 pitcher in the fake game, but currently is the 30 pitcher taken off the boards at Mock Draft Central. People might be scared off, but Tommy John surgery generally has an 80% success rate, and with a price tag of round 8 in 12 team drafts everyone should be gambling on him returning to form. Josh Johnson – When he is on, few players are his equal. The problem is that he gets hurt all the freakin’ time. In 2007 he had Tommy John Surgery, 2008 he missed 91 games recovering from said surgery. He missed the end of the 2010 with shoulder inflammation and then again in 2011 with the shoulder inflammation. While he is supposed to be ready for opening day, his injury history has him falling down the draft boards, and he can be yours with a 7th or 8th round pick. Just make sure you have a backup plan for if (when) he goes down. Ike Davis – I like Ike. Through the first 36 games of the year he was batting .302 with 7 HR and 25 RBI. Then he collided with David Wright fielding a grounder and missed the remainder of the season with combination ankle sprain/bone bruise/cartilage damage. According to Newsday, Ike is scared his ankle will never be “100%” healthy, so there is some risk in picking him up, but as a late round flier (173rd pick on average) he could yield a hefty profit. Kendrys Morales – We all know the story, he broke his ankle celebrating a HR by jumping onto home plate in a mob of his teammates. That was 2010. He missed all of 2011 due to setbacks and the break taking an extremely long time to heal. When he was at the top of his game he was a 30 HR, 100 RBI kind of guy. Despite losing his position to Pujols, the Angels will use him at DH this year. Reports say he is looking good, but after missing one and a half seasons, there will be some rust to work off. It seems a lot of people have forgotten about him since he is coming off the board, on average, with the 219th pick.  Justin Morneau – Morneau may never be the same player he was before the concussions got him, and it’s a shame, cause he was MVP caliber when he was healthy. The last two years have been rough, with him appearing in only 150 games total. Last year alone he had surgeries on his neck, left knee, right foot and left wrist. He had a concussion in 2010 and another in late last season. According to an espn.com article he has felt great since 2012 began and even dropped 20 pounds this offseason. Johan Santana – Once the best pitcher in baseball, he tore a capsule in 2010, and missed all of 2011 rehabbing the shoulder after having the same surgery Mark Prior had. He has been working hard, and will be in Mets camp this year, but even as a Mets fan, I wouldn’t recommend Johan for anything more than a RD 20 pick or later lotto ticket. In a 12 team draft that amounts to pick 240 or later. So yeah, I would be OK drafting Santana ahead of guys like Erik Bedard, Carlos Zambrano and Ricky Nolasco. Buster Posey – A gruesome collision at the plate and the resulting broken fibula ended Buster Posey’s sophomore season early. After propelling the Giants to the championship his rookie year, he was still producing at a top level (for his position) at the time he got hurt. Unfortunately for us, Posey isn’t really under anyone’s radar, as he is currently the 4th catcher off the board. Ryan Howard – He tore his Achilles in the NLDS then had surgery to repair it. He is expected back sometime in May, but the good news for us is that the time he is missing has caused his price tag to drop significantly. On average he is the 142nd player going off the boards in drafts and there isn’t really any reason to think his power will suffer tremendously once he comes back. At the end of a fantasy season it isn’t how the player has performed, it’s how the position on your team performed. If you can pair him with someone who has first base eligibility like Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli or Michael Young, you’ll play one of them then move them back to whatever other position they qualify at once Howard comes back. You could potentially finish with the top production at that position in your league. Matt McMillen is a writer at FantasyBaseball365.com. Follow him on twitter @mattmcmillen365 (September 18, 2010 - Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)  Adam Jones (Credits Below) The definition of a sleeper has drastically changed over the years. Access to the internet, and instant news feeds such as Twitter, have ultimately provided equal access to relevant cutting edge information to all fantasy baseball enthusiasts. The following list of names will sound familiar to you, so you may not consider them a sleeper. However, these guys are a sure bet to outperform their current ADPs, and should be targeted on draft day. All round calculations are based on a 12 team league. Adam Jones While I was agonizing over the fact that I missed on Andrew McCutchen in our annual industry mock draft, I realized that I drafted almost the same player in Adam Jones in the seventh round. Jones clearly doesn’t fit the prototypical “sleeper” mold, but you will likely get a a similar value to McCutchen, with a five round discount. In Jones, you’re going to get a slightly higher average, at the cost of 10-15 stolen bases over the course of the year. Recently agreeing to a one-year deal with the Orioles to avoid arbitration, Jones is likely to meet or exceed his 2011 numbers while he searches for that much desired long term contract. A .280/25/75/90/15 season is on the horizon, don’t miss out. Current ADP: 75 Target: 5th/6th Michael Cuddyer Fantasy baseball’s “Swiss Army Knife”, Michael Cuddyer, will enjoy calling Coors Field his new home. According to ParkFactors.com, Cuddyer is leaving one of the four parks least friendly to hitters, for the mile high city which is considered to be the most hitter friendly of any MLB fields. Despite the fact he will likely be manning right field for the Rockies, the former Twin could potentially have position eligibility at 1B, 2B, 3B, OF and UTIL in your league. IN terms of production, take the .284/20/70/70/11 season he had in just 139 games in 2011, project it over a full season in Colorado, and you may have a .285/27/85/85/15 campaign in 2012. Current ADP: 94 Target: Late 6th Want to see more sleepers? Click to read the rest of this article..... Written by Alan Harrison exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow Alan's nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix  (February 25, 2011 - Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)  This season I am going to include you, the reader, on the journey of my NL-Only team “The Franchise”. This series could be considered a team blog, but it will also be a tool to give insight on how to approach many aspects of fantasy baseball. This will be my tenth year participating in this keeper/auction league, and is currently my longest consecutive tenure of any league I play in. Honestly before I became a member of the State House League fantasy baseball was a mundane hobby of mine, but it soon turned into much, much more for me. To give a short background on the league, it was started close to 20 years ago for Republican lobbyists, but has since evolved into an eclectic group of owners, ranging from college friends and work peers of current owners. It is normally a 10 team league which rosters 24 active players (normal NFBC roster plus an extra pitcher). Each team is allowed $270 on draft day and may keep up to three players from the previous year at their salary, but can only keep a player for one year. Each team is allowed five reserve spots on their roster, but can only use them for players that are on the disabled list, or demoted to the minors. A FAAB budget of $100 is used to acquire free agents, and players may only be acquired if they are currently active on a MLB roster at the time when waiver transactions are processed, and then rosters are set for the following week - pretty straight forward. I think writing this series throughout the season will put me at a disadvantage to my league mates because I will discuss my thought process on waiver priorities, possible trade targets, draft/trade strategies, player evaluation and so on, but at the same time, with most members participating in this league for at least five seasons now, we all pretty much know each other’s tendencies. Expect at least an article heading into every weekend discussing possible transaction moves, and probably throughout the week from time to time depending how much action among owners is happening. I know in my next contribution I will be discussing the changing landscape in the NL player pool, which is dictating possible keepers in a different way for other league owners (and myself) heading into the league’s auction on March 31st.  Written by Nate Springfield exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Nate's NL-Only expertise, and follow him on his journey for a title of the State House League in 2012. Follow Nate on Twitter @NateSpringfield  Mat Latos (MLB.com credit) Cincinnati made the boldest move of any team in the NL Central to upgrade its starting rotation in the offseason. The Reds gave up four players, including veteran starter Edinson Volquez and a few top prospects, to get Mat Latos from San Diego. At only age 24, Latos has electric stuff as shown by his 413 strikeouts in 429 career innings and a 3.37 ERA in 72 career starts. Latos has been durable, making 31 starts in each of the past two seasons. There have been concerns about Latos including worries that the Padres overused him early in his career. More than 400 innings pitched before turning 24 is a lot and San Diego seemed to annually debate shutting him down early once it was eliminated from contention. Still, he's worth a bundle in fantasy baseball even though moving from Petco Park to Cinci could result in an increased ERA. He should get more wins with the Reds as well. He's an ace-in-the-making and is worth an early pick in all fantasy formats. Latos could be joined by another heavily-hyped prospect making his debut in the rotation this year if the Reds follow through on the plan to make Aroldis Chapman a starter. He's been sensational out of the bullpen with a 3.27 ERA in 69 appearances, but he was brought to Cinci to be a starter. If he does get a spot in the rotation, he doesn't become a fantasy stud right away. He will almost certainly have his innings limited because he has thrown barely 60 major-league innings, so don't expect him to toss 200 this year. I think he'd likely start out throwing about six innings a night and could be skipped a couple times to give him a break during the season when the Reds have a day off. The hype surrounding him will likely make him go higher in drafts than he should, so be careful jumping in to soon on Chapman. Johnny Cueto finally lived up to his billing as a staff ace last year when he 2.31 ERA in 24 starts, although that resulted in only nine wins. He dealt with a strained lat late in the season, but should be fine for spring training. Cueto's ERA has dropped in each of his past three seasons and although last year's number will be tough to beat, he should be around 3.00 with more wins this year, so a solid fantasy starter. Bronson Arroyo has become as hard to predict as any pitcher in the National League. His ERA went down nearly a full point from 2008 to 2009 and then stayed about the same in 2010 before rising more than a point to 5.07 last year. You have to think last year was a bit fluky and he should be back around 4.00 this year and back into double digit victories. Mike Leake could be one of the most improved pitchers this year because the Reds may finally lift the innings cap they seemed to put on him during his first two seasons. His 12 wins and 3.86 ERA last year were nice and I think those numbers get even better this season. Homer Bailey has never lived up to his hype as a top prospect. In five seasons, his ERA has never been below 4.40 and his career ERA is getting close to 5.00. At 25, there is time for a turnaround and thus he's worth a cheap flyer late in a draft or auction, but don't expect much considering his track record. Jeff Francis signed with the Reds, but there does not look to be any room in the rotation for him. The former top prospect of the Rockies has battled inconsistency and injury, so he's got no fantasy value at this time. Sam LeCure looks to be back in the bullpen this year, but his value increases if the Reds need him in the rotation. Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!   Derek Jeter (credits below) Well another Fantasy Baseball season is upon us and I'm sure most of you are preparing quite hard right now for your upcoming drafts. Some of the cabin fever baseball diehards may have drafted already and many others are hitting the mock draft scene (check out www.mockdraftcentral.com) on a nightly basis to help finalize your draft boards. I personally like to wait right up until the last two weeks before the season starts to make sure I have taken in the spring games (Michael Morse 2011 spring training phenom), know player injury status and have a good feeling about how the teams will set their rosters for the season. Remember patience is a virtue!! The below tips are meant for first time fantasy baseball players. It's even a good reminder for owners who have played before but forgotten key elements to playing the game. Either way, hope you win in 2012! 1) Do your research. Check the draft guides and compare all the experts opinions then buy our very own The Fantasy Fix 2012 Baseball Draft Kit. 2) Choose a league you will have fun in. There are many to choose from (Mixed, A.L. only or N.L. only). Do you want to try a keeper or dynasty type league? Know your options and go with a type of league you have some knowledge about. 3) Know your league rules BEFORE you draft. I can't tell you how many live drafts I've been in where 2-3 guys have no idea if they are in head-to-head leagues, total points or a Rotisserie league. Is there a games started limit etc. Know the rules and draft accordingly! 4) Do the scoring rules put more prominence on pitching or hitting stats? How many players do we draft? What positions do we start in our lineups? Is there a Injured Reserve spot on my roster etc.. Can I draft 12 pitchers out of 21 roster spots or do I have requirements to draft at a certain position? All these questions you must know the answer to going into the draft. 5) Have a draft plan going in but be flexible so you are prepared for something to happen you didn't plan on. I don't care how many mock drafts you do, it always seems that the league your actual draft is taking place in it never goes like the mocks. Be prepared and when in doubt take the next best player on your list! 6) Do not "fall in love" with certain players that have helped you in the past or are on your favorite team. This is sure fire disaster waiting to happen. If Derek Jeter is your favorite SS or player, that still doesn't warrant taking him in the first round. Be patient and be prepared that you may not get him this year . 7) How and who to draft is your choice but I can tell you that small ball, batting average and steals do not win head to head leagues. You want power and RBI guys, those stats out produce the others hands down. Some leagues do punish batters for striking out and pitchers for losses, earned runs etc. so keep that in mind. Pitching is also key – try loading up on two-start pitchers with good match-ups each week in head-to-head formats. 8) Once your draft is over, the great team owners know how to win with waiver wire pickups, trading, putting in the right lineup each week and be as active as you can. Keep an eye out for the Desmond Jenning's of 2011 (picked him up in two CBS leagues off waivers last year) or the Matt Moore's of the world. Be active and check the game stats daily. 9) Keep relationships with other owners of your league at a high level. You will be offered some bone-head trades and the first thing you will want to do is scold the other guy, but don't. If you see a trade you deem is fair for two other owners in your league, do not veto it to be spiteful because it may come back to bite you. Also some owners value players much differently than you do therefore remember happy owners will be more willing to trade with you and accept and approve the trades you are making with others so keep it POSITIVE!. 10) Remember above all else to keep things in perspective, this is just a GAME! Life is full of ups and downs and the so is the fantasy sports world. None of of us have a crystal ball that will predict just how well these players we have drafted will do. You will lose one week to an opponent by five points because your ace starter was taken out after seven shutout innings and you lose those 10 extra complete game points. Have fun and remember the highs and lows will come frequently. 11) Above all else never give up no matter how bleak things look. I scratched my way into the playoffs last year with a team that started 0-8 and won the championship. It would have been easy to tank it but if you draft a solid team, make a few trades and work the waiver wire you can right the ship quickly. hang in there til the end ! Written by John Marino exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 23, 2011 - Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images North America)   Matt Garza (see credits below) The Chicago Cubs starting rotation will have a different look this season. For the first time since 2001, Carlos Zambrano will not be a part of the rotation after being dealt to Miami. That was one of a few deals that the Cubs made to acquire starting pitchers who could be cheap finds in fantasy baseball if they can live up to their billing. Paul Maholm was signed from Pittsburgh where he had been a mainstay in the Pirates rotation for six seasons. The lefty had an up-and-down run with the Pirates, but had a 3.66 ERA last year and that should result in more than the six wins he got last year. Although his ERA had been over 4.40 in his two previous years, I think Maholm is a nice add if you can get him near the end of a draft. Travis Wood came over in a trade for the Reds after a disappointing season with a 4.84 ERA in Cinci. He's a former top prospect who impressed in his debut in 2010 with a 3.51 ERA and I think the 25-year old can get close to those numbers again, so another good bargain. Chris Volstad was the player acquired for Zambrano after posing an ERA above 4.50 in each of the last three seasons. He's another former top prospect, but not one that I want to touch after struggling for three years in a row. Andy Sonnanstine signed with the Cubs from Tampa Bay where he pitched mostly in relief the past two years. His career ERA is 5.26 in 132 games, so no reason to think that will come down much. The two returnees at the top of the rotation are Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster. Garza had a nice debut with the Cubs last year, winning 10 games with a 3.32 ERA. He's a reliable starter who has had an ERA under 4.00 in each of his past five seasons. He's not the ace of your fantasy staff, but a solid starter. Dempster had bright spots last year, but finished with a 4.80 ERA, his worst in nearly a decade. He's a nice buy-low candidate because he posted three straight seasons with double digit wins and an ERA under 4.00 before his steep drop last season. I'll take a chance on him late in a draft or cheap in an auction. Randy Wells is one of those guys who always seems to be on the waiver wire when you need pitching depth, but the waiver wire is where he belongs. After a good rookie season in 2009, he has been disappointing and has no guarantee of a spot in the rotation. Jeff Samardzija always seems to be in the mix for a starting spot, but is never able to hold on, and at age 27, he looks destined for a career in the bullpen. Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (September 26, 2011 - Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images North America)  Jeff Karstens (credits below) The Pirates always seem to have a pitcher or two you can find in the bargain bin who turns out to have fantasy value. James McDonald and Paul Maholm are among the pitchers who have posted good fantasy numbers on a bad Pirates team in the past few years. Last year, it was Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens who rewarded those fantasy owners who likely took them in the final rounds of a draft or picked them up from the free-agent pile. Karstens may be the ace of Pittsburgh's shaky staff this season after posting a career-low 3.38 ERA in 30 games, including 26 starts last season. That came after two seasons of ERAs close to 5.00. He'll continue to be an innings-eater for Pittsburgh, but I see his ERA flying back up north of 4.00 this season while struggling to match even his nine wins from last season. Morton is another guy that surprised early last season before injuries wore him down late. There was some pre-draft hype last year that Morton was trying to model the mechanics of Roy Halladay and he did make a big improvement with 10 wins and a 3.83 after never having an ERA under 4.50 in his first three seasons. Since there seemed to be a cause to his improvement, a change in his mechanics, I tend to trust that he can continue to post numbers similar to last season and maybe even better, since his numbers got worse late due to a hip injury. That injury remains a question as Morton is questionable to be back for Opening Day, but if he gets a good medical report, I'd keep an eye on him as a cheap starter who could pay big dividends. McDonald was a disappointment last year in his first full season with the Pirates with a 4.21 ERA. His biggest problem was consistency as he would give up one run in seven innings and then get rocked the next time out. He's got big-time potential and at 27, it is time to show it. He's another guy I will take a shot on late in the draft, but if somebody wants to take a chance on him higher, they can have him. Pittsburgh's big addition this offseason was Eric Bedard, who becomes available for the first time in National League-only leagues. He continues to be a risk or reward guy as he's good when healthy, but never seems to be healthy for a full season. However, he made 24 starts last year, his most since 2007, and had a 3.62 ERA. He hasn't had an ERA above 4.00 since 2004 and moving to the National League should only help him. He will be the Pirates' best pitcher if he stays healthy, but that is too big of a question mark for me to treat him in drafts like the stud he can be. The back end of Pittsburgh's rotation can be ignored in fantasy drafts including Kevin Correia, who got off to a fast start last year but finished with an ERA over 4.70 for the second straight season. Former top prospect Brad Lincoln is expected to contend for a spot in the rotation, but he's had his chances before and 5.74 ERA in the past two seasons. Jeff Locke is another prospect who struggled in a short major-league stint but could contend for a rotation spot. Jo-Jo Reyes signed with the Pirates in the offseason, but I want no part of his 6.05 career ERA in 70 big-league games. The best starters this spring for the Pirates won't make the major-league roster, but plenty of eyes will be on Gerrit Cole, last year's No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and Jameson Taillon, another former first-rounder. Grab them if you can in dynasty leagues. Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (August 9, 2011 - Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images North America)  Bud Norris (credits below) For those of us in National League-only fantasy leagues, its our last shot at picking Houston Astros. Pardon me if I pass on their starting pitchers. The Astros had a team ERA of 4.51 last year and that included an ERA of 4.46 or worse from three of their regular starting pitchers. As for the offseason, Houston's big addition to the rotation was Livan Hernandez. Yup, he's still alive...and playing. The rotation will look similar to last year led by Wandy Rodriguez, who was the ace of the staff with 11 wins and a 3.49 ERA. Rodriguez has been the only consistent starter for Houston since Roy Oswalt departed and he has had an ERA of 3.60 or below for four straight seasons, but unfortunately has won more than 11 games just once during that span. His strikeouts have dipped a bit in each of the past three seasons and I think at age 35 his stats will start to regress a bit, so I'm not as high on him this year. If you are going to target an Astros starter, take a shot on one of their guys with greater upside. I got Bud Norris a couple years ago when he was a rookie and held on to him for two shaky seasons before he finally had a breakthrough last year. The hard-throwing right-hander would be my top pick among their starters this year after he had a 3.77 ERA in 31 starts last year. The wins weren't there, only six, and while that will increase a bit, don't expect more than 10 for any Houston starter. His ERA dropped a full point last year and he continued to strike out about one batter per inning, so his numbers should only get better this year. Jordan Lyles was one of the top prospects last season and his call-up from the minors excited fantasy owners, but his debut was a dud. He had a 5.36 ERA in 20 games, including 15 starts. His numbers will improve and if you can get him cheap, take a shot, but don't invest too much in him because at 21 he is not a lock to be in the starting rotation, or even the majors, to begin the year. Brett Myers was a pleasant fantasy surprise in 2010 when he had 14 wins and a 3.14 ERA in his first year with the Astros, but followed it up with seven wins and a 4.46 ERA. Like all the Astros starters, he is tough to trust so only worth a flyer if he drops in drafts or auctions. J.A. Happ has hit the skids after thrilling fantasy owners as a sleeper in 2009 when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA for Philadelphia. His trade to the Astros has slowed his development and last year was a disaster as he went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA. For a guy who was not a top prospect and surprised many with his 2009 season, it is hard to imagine he gets close to his numbers from that year again. Kyle Weiland is generating some buzz as one of the top rookies this season after being traded in the offseason from Boston. The 25-year old had good numbers in the minors but struggled in a short stint with the Red Sox last season. He will get a shot to be in the rotation and considering his competition for those spots, he could be there and worth a risk late in a draft or auction. Henry Sosa is another contender for the rotation, but after going 3-5 with a 5.23 ERA in 10 starts, he's not worth a look in fantasy. Aneury Rodriguez is also in the mix to start, but he's another guy to avoid after posting an ERA north of 5.00 last year. So with all those less-than-desirable options to start, what about Livan Hernandez? Some fantasy owners who had him in 2010 when he had a 3.66 ERA may be willing to buy in again, but before you do, note that his ERA has been above 4.40 in the other four of his past five seasons including 4.47 last year with Washington. Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team! (August 22, 2011 - Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images North America) | 
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