When DraftKings came on as a sponsor this year, I was hesitant about committing to playing and writing about daily fantasy contests. My main concern was that I knew I’d have to learn the game, and I wasn’t looking forward to the adjustment period. I just don’t like doing anything I’m not good at. That’s the reason I haven’t played video games in years. I want to go back to playing them, but I know I’ll suck for awhile. I’m not interested in getting pwned on Call of Duty for several months.

Alas, I had no choice but to learn the game and suffer through the adjustment period. But at this point, the adjustment period has passed, and I LOVE playing daily fantasy. I look forward to picking my daily team each night more than I look forward to setting my roto lineups and considering trade offers. And I’ve played on a couple of different sites and can genuinely say that DraftKings is my favorite place to play. Part of that is because I seem to win more there than other places. But I also like the interface better as well. And I really love all the game options they have. There are too many to name, but my favorites are the triple up (in which you triple your entry fee if your in the top 30%) and the 10x booster (in which you win $20 on a $2 entry if you finish in the top three or five depending on the size of the league).

Today I’m playing in both a triple up and a 10x booster. I have different lineups for each, and I’ll list the hitters I selected for each below. But I mainly want to talk about the process of selecting a pitcher today. I’m a huge proponent of spending big on pitching because they score the most points on average. It’s important that you lock down a couple of 20 point scorers if possible, and the best way to do that is to spend on two safe, stud pitchers. But there are sometimes days like today when the most expensive pitchers are not great options. Below is a screenshot of today’s most expensive pitchers.

When picking starters, I look at three things. First, the quality of the pitcher. I want a guy who has at least a league average strikeout rate who also has an xFIP that either backs up a good ERA or indicates he should have a good ERA going forward. The second and third things have to do with the pitcher’s opponent. I want to know how that team performs against pitchers of the same handedness compared to the league average. So I look at a team’s wRC+ versus left and right handed pitching. wRC+ compares the team’s offensive performance to league average. The further you get above 100, the better the team is. The further you get below it, the worse they are. I also want to look and see how much the opposing team strikes out. Big strikeout totals are the best way to have a big pitching point day in daily fantasy.

CC has the Angels today, but they don’t strikeout much against LHP (16th in K% vs. LHP). However, they do have a wRC+ of 83 against LHP, so if you want to spend big on SP, this isn’t a terrible option. But CC hasn’t been that good. His velocity and K% are way down. His xFIP indicates he’s been better than his 4.07 ERA, but I’m hesitant with him.

Greinke has the match up because the Pirates strikeout 22.7% of the time vs. RHP, and they’re 9% below league average vs. RHP. But Greinke hasn’t been good. His K% is below league average and his xFIP is over 4.00. Seems like too much money for a guy who is struggling.

Strasburg and Cueto are making their first starts back from the DL, so you should be hesitant to use them on that fact alone. But they also don’t have great match ups. The Indians strikeout a lot vs. RHP, but they’ve been above average against them this year. The Brewers have been below average, but they do not strikeout much at all vs. RHP.

I love Iwakuma and think he will continue to be an elite starter going forward, but this   isn’t too wonderful. The A’s are basically right in the middle of the pack  in K% and wRC+.

Of these top options, Fister is the one I like the most. His K% crept up the last few years and was actually above average last year. It’s down a tick this year, but it’s still at league average. And he’ll be facing the Twins who have the 11th worst K% vs. RHP and are below average according to wRC+.

Hamels is in Colorado. Enough said. Lincecum sucks. Enough said. Lyons has a great match up with Miami, but he’s shown no strikeout skills so far (14.3% K%). The lefties, Lester and Holland, aren’t good options either. Lester faces the Orioles who don’t strikeout much at all and who have been above average vs. LHP. Holland faces the Blue Jays who have not been good vs. LHP, but they don’t strikeout much. Plus, Holland has to do more than pitch 40 solid innings at home as he’s done this year to prove to me that home-road splits will not continue to be a problem for him.

If I had to pick two of these two to go with Fister, I’d probably go CC or Iwakuma. In my triple up contest, I’ll probably pair Iwakuma with Fister. But in my 10x booster, I’m going to try and go a little cheaper to free up some more cash for hitting because you have to finish so much higher in the standings to place. So who is the best cheap SP option today?

There are two good ones. Corey Kluber and Bartolo Colon have very, very similar match ups. Colon faces the Mariners who have a K% of 22% and a wRC+ of 94 vs. RHP. Kluber faces the Nationals who have a K% of 21.8% and a wRC+ of 88 vs. RHP. The strikeout rates are virtually identical, so Kluber has the slight advantage in match up. Colon would appear to have the advantage in skill as his ERA (2.92) is much lower than Kluber‘s (4.08). But Kluber has a huge advantage in K% as his 24.4% K% is significantly better than Colon’s (15%). Moreover, Kluber‘s xFIP (3.03) is much better than Colon’s (3.93).

To sum all that up, I’m rolling with Iwakuma and Fister in a triple up contest (or double up), and I’m going with Fister and Kluber in a 10x booster. Below are the complete lineups I’m using for each.