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2013 Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report, Week 10: Wacha vs. Skaggs, Puig shines

Michael Wacha, St. Louis’s first round pick in the 2012 Draft, pitched very well in his Major League debut last week against the Royals. In mowing down an anemic Kansas City lineup, Wacha pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks. He struck out six batters, four of which came on his change up. In an ESPN Insider article Jim Callis writes that Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said in spring training Wacha had the best change up of any pitcher in camp with the Birds. That’s some high praise considering the glut of quality pitchers who were together in Jupiter.

Anyways, Wacha’s second big league start didn’t go as well. He was pulled in the fourth inning Tuesday night after giving up six earned runs to Arizona on 10 hits, one walk and four strikeouts. The 21-year-old didn’t pitch too well, missing his location on A.J. Pollock’s three-run homer and on Paul Goldschmidt’s RBI double. Several of the hits he allowed were of the seeing-eye variety – Didi Gregorius reached on an infield single as well as a slapped ground ball; Tyler Skaggs poked an RBI single through the left side that was just out of David Freese’s reach.

Wacha’s counterpart in the game, Tyler Skaggs, was recalled from Triple-A to replace the injured Brandon McCarthy. This 21-year-old failed to get out of the sixth inning by allowing five earned runs even though he only gave up six hits and walked no one while striking out four. He did allow two home runs, both of which came on fastballs right down the middle of the plate. One of the runs Skaggs allowed shouldn’t even have happened. Miguel Montero caught Carlos Beltran stealing in the sixth inning, but the third base umpire incorrectly called Beltran out. During the same at-bat, Yadier Molina singled in Beltran, which was the straw that broke the camel’s back for Skaggs. Skaggs did get a bit lucky in the game, however. David Freese missed a homer by a foot when A.J. Pollock jump-caught his ball at the wall in right-center field in the second, and Matt Holliday just missed a homer in the sixth to center field. It sure sounded like a homer off the bat.

Both pitchers didn’t pitch their best Tuesday night, but I’m still buying both guys. Wacha is a polished pitcher who’ll get plenty of run support and will be facing off against a bunch of weak lineups. Skaggs, who was labeled Arizona’s No. 1 prospect coming into the season by MLB.com, has three plus pitches and the pedigree to become a stud in the majors. With McCarthy on the DL and Randall Delgado optioned to Triple-A, Skaggs should be in the Arizona rotation for the foreseeable future.

  • Yasiel Puig, probably the Dodgers’ most hyped prospect, made his MLB debut Monday night going 2-for-4 and ending the game with a monstrous throw from the right field warning track to double off Chris Denorfia at first. Then on Tuesday night Puig hit his first homer, a bomb to left-center. He then hit his second homer an inning later, a liner smoked to right field. The Dodgers signed Puig last year after the 22-year-old defected from Cuba, and he had an instant impact in the minor leagues. He hit .354/.442/.634 in 95 plate appearances last year between Rookie ball and Single-A. Puig was putting up similar numbers in 167 plate appearances this year at Double-A with 12 doubles, three triples, eight homers and 13 steals.

    Yasiel Puig
    Photo courtesy of Randy McCoach

Puig is owned in 69 percent of ESPN and 57 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and if he’s still available in any leagues deeper than 10 teams I’d say go ahead and pick him up. But don’t expect more than a few weeks of production. Once Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford become healthy those two will return to the outfield and Puig will be without a job. There’s got to be a 99 percent chance Puig returns to the minors this season, so my best advice would be to drop someone you won’t miss for him and hope he continues his hot start so you can trade him ASAP.

  • Marcell Ozuna has quietly been productive for the Marlins while filling in for the injured Giancarlo Stanton. His 16-game hit streak ended May 31st, but he collected four RBI on three hits, including a double and a triple, Sunday. The 22-year-old only has one home run in 130 plate appearances, but he’s brought his ability to hit for other extra bases up from the minor leagues. He averaged 22 doubles and three triples in just 111 games from 2010-2012, and his 10 doubles and two triples in the majors equate to 51 doubles and 10 triples in a full season. He hasn’t yet shown the power that allowed him to average 22 homers over his last three full minor league seasons, though, perhaps because he plays in one of the worst hitters’ parks in the majors.

I’m hesitant to suggest Ozuna should be a fixture on your roster, because his .274 average and .333 OBP in the minor leagues suggest his .331 average and .372 OBP this season are a bit fluky. He’s also hitting .419 on balls in play, which is over 120 points higher than league average. He’s also walking less and striking out a tad higher than league average so if those balls in play start finding gloves he could be in for a severe cold streak. Ozuna is owned in 47 percent of ESPN leagues and 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and I’d say an average of those two percentages is about right where he should be. But if you’re in a deeper mixed league that counts doubles and triples you might want to take the plunge with Ozuna over a boring veteran like David DeJesus.

  • Jedd Gyorko still hasn’t taken that big step forward a lot of owners have been waiting for throughout the first third of the season despite a very good May. As the 13th ranked second baseman and third baseman on ESPN’s Player Rater, Gyorko is owned in over 99 percent of ESPN leagues. However, his numbers over the last seven, 14 and 28 days are very similar to his numbers on the season as a whole. But one set of numbers stands out at that link – his numbers at home. At Petco Park Gyorko’s hitting .336/.408/.536 in 125 plate appearances. His OPS at home (.944) is almost 400 points higher than it is on the road (.566). His 10.4 percent home walk rate is double his road walk rate of 5 percent, and his strikeout rate goes up to 25 percent on the road from 15 percent at home. “The Jerk” is only owned in 58 percent of Yahoo! leagues so you’ve got a good shot at picking him up at the Y! if you want to. I’d recommend sitting him in daily leagues when the Padres are on the road, but in all leagues definitely play him when he’s in San Diego.
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3 Comments

  1. Steven A
    June 5, 2013 at 5:16 pm

    “Jedd Gyorko still hasn’t taken that big step forward a lot of owners have been waiting for throughout the first third of the season despite a very good May. ”

    That sentence makes zero sense. As you mentioned within the sentence he had a very good May (.303/.361/.545). Those numbers were indeed a big step forward from what had been his only other mlb month! Not sure what exactly you are talking about here. I’ll take those May numbers from my rookie 2b any month of the season!

    • June 5, 2013 at 10:58 pm

      Gyorko’s just a confusing case for me. He had a great May, but since May 6 his OPS had only went up 13 points before tonight’s homer. It seems like his stats should be better than they are, but they aren’t for some reason. I wish I could explain it a bit better, and I tried to do that with his home/road splits so I think there’s something there. My mistake was not realizing how his numbers compare to other second basemen, but then he doesn’t even crack the top 10 on the player rater despite good power numbers compared to other 2b.

      • Steven A
        June 6, 2013 at 7:30 pm

        Yeah, I don’t get the home/road splits either. But I’d be far more worried if those splits were reversed! I think this kid is going to be a stud.