Chris GarosiFantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 10 Closer Report

I was remiss in not covering the Baltimore Orioles’ closer situation here last week, but I’m not too concerned with Jim Johnson. Buck Showalter said he’ll stick with Johnson and I think he will. Heck, Joe Maddon keeps trotting Fernando Rodney out there. Some managers just give guys longer leashes so we have to be patient when chasing saves. It’s like news reporting. You may want to get it first, but it’s better to get it correct.

I’ll cover the Orioles in depth below and also take a tour through the Astros’ and Indians’ bullpens as the Closer Report….continues.

Baltimore Orioles

Jim Johnson is not a sabermetric darling. He doesn’t strike out enough batters (career 15.7% K rate) to ever have long term success. Well, he did save 51 games last season and yes, he out pitched his peripherals (2.49 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.62 xFIP in 2012). And the luck gods have turned on Johnson as he’s not nearly as bad as his ERA (4.85) shows (3.91 FIP, 3.62 xFIP) due to an elevated HR/FB rate (13.6%), lower than average LOB% (64.9% vs career of 74.7%) and a bit higher BABIP than his career (.315 vs .282). All of this conspired to hurt Johnson this season. Who is behind Johnson should he need some time off?

Darren O’Day is probably first up for the O’s should Johnson need a break, but I don’t think he’s the optimal option for the O’s. O’Day’s surface stats look great this season (1.88 ERA), but digging deeper we see a 3.73 FIP and 4.19 xFIP. O’Day is a junkballer with his fastball averaging just over 85 mph, but he somehow is able to get strikeouts at an excellent rate (25.5% this season – nothing lower than 24.3% in the last three seasons). His control is a bit off this season so that could harm him should he be called upon to close.

Brian Matusz has been a superior pitcher since his switch to the bullpen. And this year, he’s figured out a way to get right-handers out more regularly than he had in the past (career .861 OPS by right-handers against him in his career , in 2013 it’s down to .570). I think Matusz is the better pitcher and is the long term or dynasty play in the bullpen. O’Day should get the first shot and could hold it for the year if Johnson continues to struggle.

Houston Astros

Jose Veras is a closer, but not a very good one. The Astros are a major league baseball team, but not a very good one. Veras has given up runs in three of his last four outings and picked up two losses and a blown save. The Astros could make a change, but it would be akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. If they choose to do that, before ramming into the iceberg at the end of the season, where would they go?

Hector Ambriz picked up the save on Thursday night after Jose Veras got the night off due to workload. The 29-year old right hander has bounced around in the minors and comes with little pedigree. He’s probably a bit better pitcher than he’s shown this year, but he wouldn’t be much different than Veras in this role.

Wesley Wright is no more than a matchup option for me. He’ll get a chance to get a save here or there if a lefty-heavy portion of an opponent’s lineup happens to come up in a save opportunity. With an improving walk rate, Wright has become an effective reliever, but he just can’t get right-handed hitters out on a regular basis.

Josh Fields continues to be the dark horse candidate in the Astros’ pen. Fields was activated from the DL on Friday. Fields was a first round pick out of the University of Georgia in 2008 and has been used exclusively as a reliever since signing with the Seattle Mariners. He was selected in the Rule V draft this winter by the Astros from the Boston Red Sox after a successful season at AA and AAA. He’s always had huge strikeout numbers in the minors, but struggled with control. He seemed to get that “under control” in 2012 and I’d like to see what he can do in high leverage situations.  He’s not a kid at 27 years old, but he could anchor the bullpen for the next few years and do it cheaply for a rebuilding Astros’ team.

Cleveland Indians

Chris Perez hit the DL this week with what was later diagnosed as mild tendonitis of the right rotator cuff. He’ll be rested for five to seven days and then reevaluated. I think Perez will be out a minimum of a month based on this current diagnosis.

Vinnie Pestano was named interim closer in Perez’s absence, but he has struggled with some elbow issues this year (he had Tommy John surgery in his past) and diminished velocity. Terry Francona chalked up the velocity drop to rust from Pestano’s recent DL stint, but his velocity bears monitoring. He was back up to 90-92 mph on Thursday. He then gave no clue to who might be next as he listed the remainder of his bullpen as options after Pestano. Pestano’s injury history this year concerns me and I’m not sure he’ll be able to hold up to a full workload. Moreover, Perez’s shoulder has been bothering him on and off this year so it’s unclear if he’ll be back in short order. Who else should we speculate on?

Joe Smith is behind Pestano. He came in after Perez was pulled due to injury and promptly blew the game. It was a tough spot to be called into so we’ll give him a pass. Smith has been a solid reliever, but nothing spectacular through his career. His surface stats this year (1.00 ERA) bely poorer peripherals (2.67 FIP, 3.30 xFIP). He’s not worth an add in most leagues.

Cody Allen is probably a better pitcher than Smith at this point. Allen has a 33% K rate in 2013 and his ERA is in line with his FIP (2.42) and xFIP (2.64). He’s always had outstanding strikeout rates throughout his minor league career and has the stuff to succeed as a closer even though he has not experience in the role.

Do you want a dark, dark horse? Would you believe Brett Myers? There was talk this week that if Myers’ elbow continues to bother him, the Indians may bring him back in the bullpen. Myers had some success as a closer in 2007 (for the Phillies) and 2012 (for the Astros). If Perez is out for a longer period, I could see the Indians slotting him into the closer’s role to maintain the other roles in the pen.

Close Calls

Kenley Jansen got through a seven pitch eighth inning. Brandon League gave up a two-run homer. Both happened on Friday night. Jansen likely edges back into the lead in the closer’s role in Los Angeles.

Rafael Betancourt gave up two runs in a tie game with the Dodgers on Friday night. We’re moving closer to Rex Brothers’ closing in Colorado.

Jose Valverde blew a save in spectacular fashion on Friday night giving up home runs to Nick Markakis and Chris Dickerson. I have no concern for him. Jim Leyland will give him a long leash.

Jared Burton picked up a save on Thursday night as Glen Perkins was unavailable. This just solidifies Burton as the handcuff for Perkins’ owners and saves speculators.

Francisco Rodriguez looks to be the closer while Jimmy Henderson is out for the Brewers. There hasn’t been an update on Henderson’s health and John Axford has been used in non-save situations since Henderson’s injury. Rodriguez is the play here as he picked up the save on Friday night.

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