2013 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy Baseball

The Best Shot You’ll Have to Make $100,000 in Two Days

DK DraftKings.com is offering a very special and exclusive offer for TheFantasyFix.com readers. On Thursday (6/13), a measly five bucks will earn you one of 50 spots playing for two entries into Friday’s $100,000 Punch Out contest. Entries for that contest are $200. But yours is free if you finish top two on Thursday. And this is not just a lottery ticket. You have control over whether your $5 turns into $100,000. Click the linked text above to start building your team.

If you don’t finish in the top two, you can still cash. Those who finish 3-10 will win $10, and those who finish 10-20 will win $5. The way I see it, your odds of cashing in this contest are almost as good as they are in a double up, but this contest also has some serious upside that a double up does not.

Because this contest has such upside, you have to construct your team in a way that is different from how you should approach a double up contest. In a double up, you don’t really have to worry about who everyone else is picking. As long as you make solid decisions, your chances of cashing are good. But if you want to win one of those two entries into the $100,000 Punch Out contest, you’re going have to pick some big performances that are not common picks among the other entrants.

For example, a high percentage of the entrants will pick the two most expensive pitchers. They’ll pick Yu Darvish because well…..he’s Yu Darvish. And a bunch of them will pick Cliff Lee because he has a good match up against the Twins. If you take one or both of those guys as well, it’s going to be hard to separate yourself from the pack. So why not gamble with Kevin Correia? For one thing, his opponent (Philadelphia) is 10% below league average against right-handed pitchers like Correia (90 wRC+). And he likes pitching in Minnesota, which is where Thursday’s game is. He has a 2.95 ERA at home this year compared to a 5.56 ERA on the road. It’s obviously a risk, but you have to take them to win a contest like this. And it’s not a risk with no rhyme or reason behind it.

For your second pitching slot, you have to avoid A.J. Burnett and Ervin Santana because they’ll also be picked by quite a few owners. On top of that, they are both facing offenses that are above average against right-handed pitching. Matt Cain has a good match up against the Pirates who struggle against RHP, but his name value and preseason ADP probably means quite a few people will target him as their bargain pitcher. Kevin Gausman, another righty, has a brutal match up against the Red Sox who have been the best team vs. RHP this year. And lefties Mark Buehrle and Felix Doubront have tough match ups against two of the better offenses in the league in Baltimore and Texas. And those are both in Baltimore and Texas, two parks that favor hitters, especially in the warmer weather.

That leaves Jeremy Hellickson as the only other “cheap” SP option. Admittedly, Hellboy has been awful this year as evidenced by his 5.18 ERA. But there are things to like about what he has done this year. A lot of his underlying numbers are better than they were in either of his two previous full seasons. His K% is up to about 19%, which is league average. His BB% is down to an impressive 5.8%. That’s better than league average and has helped keep his WHIP at a decent 1.23. He’s throwing more first pitch strikes, getting more swinging strikes, and allowing fewer line drives. Given all of that, it’s not surprising to see he had a decent SIERA of 3.98. Unfortunately, he’s had trouble stranding runners on base (64.5% strand rate). But that will even out to some degree. There’s upside here.

The other thing to like about Hellickson is his match up on Thursday. He’s facing a Royals squad that is 28th in the league against right-handed pitching this year (21% below league average). With Hellickson’s positive regression and this type of matchup, you should take a shot on him in this type of contest.

Good luck!

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