2013 Fantasy BaseballFantasy BaseballJosh Kay

The BABIP Monologues: Justin Verlander and His Mythical Bad Luck

verlander land
Source: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America

In my ever increasing attempts to rid the fantasy baseball landscape of broad paint brush stroke analysis on batting average on balls in play, I bring you “The BABIP Monologues.”

Justin Verlander and the Myth of Bad Luck

Justin Verlander has been quite awful this season in terms of ERA and walk rate. Justin sports a 3.90 ERA, accompanied by a .329 xFIP and 2.86 FIP; the Fielder Independent Pitching metric coming in at 2.86 is Justin’s lowest since his peak season of 2009. Let’s compare these two seasons on a broader scale.

Year K/9 BB/9 K% BB% FIP xFIP ERA BABIP
2009 10.09++ 2.36 27.4%+ 6.4% 2.80+ 3.20 3.45 .319**
2013 10.37+ 3.13** 27.0%++ 8.1%** 2.82++ 3.13++ 3.72** .344*

 

*Highest of career or best of career (BB/9, BABIP)

** Second highest of career (BB/9, BB%, BABIP, ERA

+Best of career (K/9, K%, FIP)

++ Second best of career (K/9, K%, FIP, xFIP)

The easy way out here would be to say “Verlander’s skills remain near his peak levels, although his walk rate is the second highest of his career, it looks like he’s mostly just been unlucky.”

Let’s look at Verlander’s pitch data so far this season; since Verlander’s velocity drop has been one of his most documented problems, we’ll examine his fastball.

 

Year At Bats K K%* BAA SLG ISO BABIP
2011 506 91 18% .221 .378 .156 .235
2012 496 111 22% .246 .417 .171 .283
2013 148 31 20% .297 .466 .169 .354

 

*In this context, strikeout percentage refers to “of the number of at-bats ending in a fastball, how often did it result in a strikeout?”

The most notable takeaway from this table is the three-year increasing trend of batting average against, slugging, and batting average on balls in play on the fastball. This is not a knock against Verlander, it makes sense given his aging pattern and the fact that he’s thrown an incredible number of innings over the past five seasons (1000+).

This is still not enough though, and it does not fully highlight the true problems Verlander is having with his fastball.

For Major League Baseball players, except Adam Dunn of course, the goal when you get a fastball depends on what the count is. When ahead in the count, the goal is to look for a fastball to drive for an extra base hit/home run. With two strikes, the goal is to look for a pitch to handle and poke it for a base hit.

 

Verlander Fastball On at bats ending on the first pitch, or pitcher behind

Year Total At-Bats BAA SLG ISO BABIP
2011 181 .292 .525 .232 .244
2012 182 .313 .566 .253 .274
2013 41 .268 .683 .415 .193

 

Verlander Fastball On at bats ending with 2 strikes

Year Total At-Bats BAA SLG ISO BABIP
2011 240 .171 .296 .125 .234
2012 222 .167 .266 .099 .302
2013 86 .291 .349 .058 .455

 

Obviously Verlander’s BABIP on two strike fastballs won’t continue at this level; however, it bears noting that if we recall the goal of a batter with regards to a fastball when the pitcher is behind, and when the batter has two strikes, it seems as if batters are becoming more successful against Verlander.

For this next exercise, I will count all extra base hits Verlander allows when he is behind in the count, all hits on the first pitch, and all singles with two strikes as “failures”. All recorded outs will count as successes. Once again this is on the fastball; in addition, I will count all walks issued on the fastball but make those a function of plate appearances.

 

Year Fastball Success Rate (as a function of making outs)*
2011 78%
2012 74%
2013 61%

*Consider the leniency given by not counting singles when behind in the count as a failure.

Still think it’s more a case of bad luck given the two strike astronomically high BABIP?

 

Two Strike Fastballs Thrown (Ball % + Strike % + Foul % + BIP % = 100%)

Year Ball % Strike % Swing % Foul % Whiff % Ball in Play %
2012 22.12% 19.65% 72.92% 38.41% 14.69% 19.82%
2013 29.15% 13.90% 65.47% 32.29% 8.52% 24.66%

 

Balls In Play Distribution on Two Strike Fastballs

Year Total In Play GB% LD% FB% Pop Up %
2012 112 out of 565 thrown 39.29% 20.54% 27.68% 12.50%
2013 55 out of 223 thrown 36.36% 32.73% 25.45% 5.45%

 

Sometimes there’s more to an increased walk rate than meets the eye. In Verlander’s case, it shows that his command has flopped (possibly his consistency with his delivery). Verlander’s ability to use the fastball as a go-to pitch has decreased markedly. His fastballs are being obliterated when he’s behind in the count and batters are handling his fastball on 0-2 counts, resulting in a 61% success rate on out making ability on counts when he is either behind or at two strikes. The reason I handpicked those scenarios is because they are the source of the biggest splits.

 

2013 BA OBP SLG ISO
First Pitch .334 .334 .548 .214
Batter Ahead .294 .459 .498 .204
Two Strikes .203 .211 .298 .095

 

Verlander is generating seven percent fewer swings on his fastball, six percent fewer foul balls (which is a function of how well a batter is timing it), and six percent fewer swings and misses. In addition, Verlander is also having five percent more of his two strike fastballs put into play for an overall BABIP of .455 on such pitches. That’s not bad luck, it’s an ineffective fastball. That plus his .415 ISO allowed on his fastball when he’s behind in the count or is throwing it as the first pitch is combining to give him that 3.72 ERA he has earned.

And it’s not just his fastball, here’s a look at all his pitches with strikes the last two years:

 

2013 Count Usage % AB ended Strikeout % BAA SLG
Fastball 223 43% 86 36% .291 .349
All Other Pitches 297 57% 128 57% .133 .180

 

2012 Count Usage % AB ended Strikeout % BAA SLG
Fastball 565 42% 222 50% .167 .266
All Other Pitches 785 58% 364 47% .120 .156

 

Verlander’s ERA is not guaranteed to come down because his xFIP, FIP and strikeout to walk ratios tell us so. He must become more effective with his fastball and or mix in more of his excellent off-speed pitches. He has not been unlucky, his fastball is fat and hitters are timing it perfectly (as evidenced by corresponding pop-up rate decline, line drive rate increase, decreased foul ball percentage and decreased whiff rate). So if you go out and trade for him, realize that you’re inheriting more risk than you realize. He may be hurt, he may be in a cold streak mechanically, but he is not unlucky.

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5 Comments

  1. Train
    June 24, 2013 at 8:27 pm

    Lol, I wish you were a Verlander owner in my league so I could trade you pennies on the dollar for him.

    • June 24, 2013 at 10:29 pm

      Train,

      The piece Josh wrote has some merit. I wrote a piece here defending Verlander because his fastball velocity was trending upward and I also assumed the walk rate would adjust to his career levels. The fastball has now been between 93-94, but apparently the walks have been an issue still. And although the velocity seems to be in an okay place, it doesn’t mean his fastball is currently as effective as in the past.

      If you look at his zone heat map, it looks like his fastball location is pretty similar to 2012. This could all come down to still losing a tick and perhaps even some movement issues with the pitch. The pitch values on fangraphs.com show the fastball has been his weakest pitch.

      I personally think Verlander will be fine, but this is a well done piece. And when this is your work, writing these type of articles for many to see isn’t necessarily easy to do. We don’t want to be wrong, but we have to go with what we find, know, and believe.

      I think we all should take a closer look at Verlander (visually) and see what his fastball is doing. I expect him to adjust if there is some loss of stuff. Scoffing at this article isn’t going to help you in the long run. The more research and time people put into all this (sports in general), the better it is for all of us as fans.

      • June 25, 2013 at 2:16 pm

        Thank you very much for those kind words Rich. I really appreciate it. What’s important for people to realize here too, is that im not predicting Verlander can’t and won’t turn it around. But what we have so far, the data he has given us, shows a pitcher that has just been bad, and not unlucky. Projecting out what he will do is tough because he’s so excellent. What he really needs to do is just use his secondary pitches more to keep the guys off his fastball.

        • June 25, 2013 at 7:15 pm

          You’re welcome.

          Verlander is throwing more change-ups than usual, so maybe even he notices what you are pointing out. Possibly trying to change speeds more.

          It may be interesting to rerun these numbers at the end of the year as well. Perhaps from this point forward, and overall. I’d like to see what his fastball success rate looks like after a full season.

      • June 25, 2013 at 9:27 pm

        Agree with Josh and Rich on this. This piece is evidently well-researched and well-written.

        And like Josh noted above, this may very well be just one small hiccup that could be corrected. With that said, this could also be a time to take advantage of a vulnerable Verlander owner if you have the ability/willingness to take some risk.

        Nice work, Josh.