FantasyPros.com has become the place for experts to post their rankings because of the accuracy competition they conduct for the experts. We’re all competitive. It’s why we love fantasy sports, and the accuracy competition is just another way to scratch that itch. But FantasyPros has other cool features like their mock draft simulator which allows you to do a mock draft in minutes. And they also have reports for experts that show us where our rankings are significantly different from ADP or the average ranking of the experts. I thought it would be a good idea to go position by position and show you who I think is overvalued and undervalued before your drafts this weekend.

Quarterbacks

As you can see, Luck is the only quarterback within the consensus top 15 that I have ranked much differently than ADP. This isn’t surprising to me because I’m of the opinion that it doesn’t really matter which of the top 10-12 QBs you end up with. They’re all pretty good, and it’s unlikely that your QB pick will make or break your season. But if you’d like to know why Luck doesn’t quie make that cut for me, read this.

In the undervalued column, I guess you’ll see the three guys I consider to be my sleepers at QB.

As Michael Salfino pointed out, Schaub is a high yards per attempt passer (7.5+), and those guys average 27.5 TDs (5.5% TD%) and 500 attempts per year. He’s hit the 500 attempt mark in each of his full seasons, but the touchdowns are what keep him from being a stud. His three year TD% is just 3.7%. Admittedly, this is unlikely to change because of Houston’s desire to run in close, but if you’re looking for a flier or upside, it’s not a terrible idea to take the guy who we know has the talent.

Freeman is a really interesting guy. After his ridiculous 2010 where he finished as a top ten QB, he absolutely tanked in 2011 as his TD% dropped from 5.3% to 2.9%, his interception rate rose from 1.3% to 4%, and his YPA dropped from 7.3 to 6.5. The TD and INT rates were bound to regress somewhat, but they did more than regress. And his YPA went from slightly above average to well below average. But last year he rebounded somewhat. His TD% and INT% were pretty normal at 4.8% and 3.0%, and his YPA jumped back up to 7.3.

Yet Freeman was still pretty bad. Why? Two reasons. First, his completion percentage went in the tank. This was due to a significant spike in the number of deep balls he threw. In 2011, he threw the lowest percentage of deep balls in the league. But last year he threw the 4th highest percentage. Second, he didn’t do anything with his legs. He had only 139 rushing yards and scored zero rushing TDs compared to four in 2011. Long story short, Freeman probably won’t ever repeat 2010, but he could finish as a borderline top 12 QB if everything goes right.

As for Tannehill, the Dolphins didn’t go deep much last year as Tannehill was 26th in deep pass percentage. But when they did, Tannehill wasn’t bad. He was 12th in yards per attempt on deep throws and 9th in accuracy on deep throws. In 2010 and 2011, Tannehill’s new receiver, Mike Wallace, was 7th and 5th in yards per deep target. Adding a deep threat like Wallace might help Tannehill get his YPA over 7.0, which would push him into the top 20 and possibly top 15 at the position.

Running Backs

I wrote about Forte in our 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, which you can purchase here. But the driving force behind me being down on him is that his upside is limited. There’s a strong correlation between Forte’s usage and effectiveness. When he has received fewer touches in a season, he has gained more yards per touch. But when he has received more touches, his yards per touch have gone down. Maybe he doesn’t have much downside, but there’s little chance he finishes as a top ten back when you consider the usage/effectiveness issue as well as his poor track record at the goal line. Guys I have just ahead of him are Darren Sproles, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, and David Wilson. All of those guys have more downside than Forte, but, aside from maybe Sproles, they all have the chance to be top ten backs.

Bernard has sort of become this trendy little flex option, especially in PPR. If you took him as a potential in flex in PPR, I wouldn’t skewer you for it, but I’d rather have a receiver filling my flex spot in a PPR as opposed to a backup running back. But in standard, I think it’s crazy that Bernard has an ADP of 26 at the position. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is probably still going to be the goal line back, so a third down, change of pace back like Bernard isn’t going to produce enough to be worthy of flex consideration.

On the undervalued side, we have two guys that are the starting running backs on an NFL team. DeAngelo is unquestionably the starter. Mike Tolbert and Cam will vulture some touchdowns, but Williams is an undisputed lead back. It’s insane that he’s not being drafted as at least a solid flex option. And that’s especially true when you consider the fact that he has a 4.9 yards per carry average for his career. There’s more than just flex upside here.

As for Moreno, he’s got some competition for the job, but he appears to have it for now. Rookie Montee Ball could certainly develop as the season goes on and take over the job at some point, and earlier this season it seemed like Ronnie Hillman might win the job. But for now, Moreno is worth a flier. I have him at 35 right behind all the guys I think will be starters plus Vereen and Ingram and right ahead of all the best handcuffs.

Wide Receivers

Johnson and Moore fall squarely in the WR3 group for me, and you can likely get them as your fourth wideout and build a deep corps of receivers. Johnson is money in the bank for 1,000 yards and seven scores each year. There is some concern about the QB situation there, but as long as E.J. Manuel is healthy for most of the year, I think Stevie will be fine. Moore is also good for 6-8 scores per year, and he’s coming off his first 1,000 yard season. He’s also moving up the depth chart to the #2 receiver and the third best option in an elite pass offense behind Colston and Graham. I end up with one or both of these guys in every draft.

Randle, Sanu, and Blackmon are my sleepers at the position. Randle is a big-bodied receiver who could get a lot of work on the outside with Victor Cruz lining up in the slot about 70% of the time. And if Hakeem Nicks gets hurt again, Randle would be the #1 option on the outside with a pretty good quarterback throwing to him. But even without a Nicks injury, I expect Randle to have value. I just think a potential Nicks injury gives him a ton of upside.

Sanu was pegged as a breakout candidate by ProFootballFocus in their draft guide because of his similarity to other guys who have broken out in the past in certain statistical categories. PFF is one of my favorite resources, so if they think Sanu is a breakout candidate, so do I. And when Andrew Hawkins went down in the preseason, Sanu’s opportunity got even better.

And Blackmon is intriguing because he was great in his last seven games of 2012. He started off that run with a ridiculous 236 yard performance in week 10. But even if you take that game out, he averaged  63 yards per game and a touchdown in every other game in his last six of the year. That’s nothing spectacular, but he could be useful when he returns from suspension.

On the overvalued side, I like Wes Welker fine. I’ve even ended up with him on a team. But I think banking on a top 15 season is a little risky. I think all three Denver receivers will get theirs, but it’s probably wise to be a little more conservative with Decker and Welker. I think one of them could be a top 15 guy, but I’d be lying if I said I felt strongly about which one it will be.

DeSean Jackson is a WR3 according to ADP unlike Johnson and Moore who I have there. Stevie is probably lower because of QB concerns, and Moore is lower because he’s not the first or even second option on his team. Jackson has Vick who is less of a concern than Manuel, but Jackson relies on being a deep threat and Vick wasn’t great on deep balls last year. Jackson is clearly the #1 option on the team. However, Jackson has done nothing in the last couple of seasons to make me feel comfortable drafting him. He’s on a three-year decline trend in yardage and touchdowns. He’s on a two-year decline trend in yards per reception. Opportunity is a big part of fantasy success and Jackson will have it, but I haven’t seen enough talent recently to buy in on opportunity alone.

To be a top 30 receiver in standard leagues, which is what Tavon Austin being drafted as, you need to finish the year with about 120 points. In the last 42 seasons, only 38 rookie receivers have finished with 120 fantasy points or more, which is less than one per season. It has happened a little more frequently in recent seasons with 16 rookies doing it in the last ten seasons, but it’s still not common. There’s obviously a chance Austin could do it, but he has a mediocre quarterback, and Chris Givens appears to be the #1 option in St. Louis.

Tight Ends

Efficiency. That’s essentially the reason why I’m comfortable with Myers or Davis as my tight end, why I don’t want Rudolph as my tight end and why I don’t think Pettigrew is a good flier. Here is how those four stack up the last two years in receptions per time thrown at and yards per time thrown at along with their rank in those statistics among the 31 tight ends with 100+ receptions in that time frame.

Big thanks to ProFootballFocus.com and Pro-football-reference.com for the information.