2013 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Team Preview: The Dallas Cowboys

NoteThis piece was originally written on July 14th by Davis Mattek and is one of many unique pieces that can be found in our 2013 fantasy football draft guide. None of this information has been updated since it was originally published.

Despite the win-loss record of the team, the Dallas Cowboys have been flush full with fantasy options as long as Tony Romo has been the franchises’ quarterback. In fact, before the meteoric rise of Dez Bryant’s ADP, the Cowboys have rarely had a player perceived as elite by the fantasy community. Strange for a team that finished with the 6th most total  yards, 3rd most passing attempts and yards, 6th most passing touchdowns, and despite not committing to the run, still scoring 8 rushing touchdowns and 1,265 rushing yards. Much of rush offense was due to offensive line woes that have been dealt with and another unfortunate DeMarco Murray injury.

Quarterback: Tony Romo is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy quarters. Excluding the year Romo got hurt and missed serious time, here are his finishes as a fantasy QB: 18 (with only 337 attempts and playing part time), 2, 9, 6, 7, and 8. In what way does it make sense for him to have an ADP of QB12? None. None at all. Given the teams continual hesitance to run in the endzone, the touchdown ceiling for Romo will consistently be high. Partially due to the fact that Murray is always hurt, but also, not an incredibly efficent redzone runner, it makes more sense for the team to throw near the endzone. If you want to draft one single quarterback and stick with him for the entire year, from a value standpoint, Romo is a no brainer. He has exactly one season with serious missed time and has shown a willingness to play through serious injuries before. The team clearly is advancing with aerial mindset, drafting Gavin Escobar and Terrance Williams in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively, while not improving the backfield. Given that the Rams drafting and signing of seemingly talented pass catchers has generated Sam Bradford buzz, it seems pretty reasonable that Cowboys addressing the needs of offensive line and second-tier receivers should be a positve sign for Romo’s already solid fantasy value.

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Running Back: Drafting DeMarco Murray comes down to one of the primordial fantasy football questions: do you believe in the label ‘injury prone’? If you don’t, Murray will be a lead back on one of the best offenses in football, a player who has averaged 4.8 yards per carry for his NFL career and shown serious ability as a pass catcher for a severe discount. A 16 game projection for Murray looks like something like this (Courtesy of the Rotoviz RB Sim Score App): 232 carries, 985 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns, 42 catches, 364 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. Those 176 fantasy points would have made Murray RB14 last year, tied for Reggie Bush. With an ADP of RB17, Murray is yet again another value. However, I find that projection to actually be a bit conservative. In fewer games, Murray has already topped 2.5 catches per game and reached 247 receiving yards in 10 games. Murray is a more than adequate receiving, and it’s really the extra receiving yards that push a running back into elite territory because they gain more yardage per touch. The lack of touchdowns will likely continue to be a fantasy value problem, but regardless, if Murray stays healthy for 16 games, he will make his fantasy owners very happy.

Quick note for Joseph Randle lovers; just… just no. Randle ran a 4.63 and really doesn’t score well on any measurable scale at all. If Murray gets hurt, the Cowboys backfield will be the same committee mess that it was last year.

Wide Receiver: Dez Bryant is going to finish as the 2nd overall fantasy wide receiver in 2013 and if Calvin Johnson is gone off the board and my choices are Arian Foster or Trent Richardson, there is a very serious case that can be made for Dez as a first round pick. During his downpour of fantasy point goodness, Dez accumulated 10 touchdowns in 7 games, had a 224 yard receiving game, and generally made defenses feel ridiculous.

Outside of Dez, things get dicey. Miles Austin could be fantastic value if his hamstring that has ailed him for 2 and a half years finally solves itself. There is room for a 2nd wide receiver to be productive in this offense, but Austin’s days of being a bonafide WR1 are officially over. Outside of Austin, the ‘Boys have Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Danny Cole and Terrance Williams all fighting for time. Jason Witten will barely leave the field which will make playing time harder to come by. In a redraft sense, these guys should be monitored should they decide to get their 2011 Laurent Robinson on, but none of them are worthy of being drafted.

Tight End: With all of the controversy surrounding the Patriots tight end situation, the ADP rise of Jimmy Graham, the uncertainty of  Vernon Davis’ role with the 49ers in wake of the Crabtree injury, there is a chance that Jason Witten might be the safest tight end in 2013. The last time he didn’t have at least 942 receiving yards was 2006, and while his redzone usage has decreased steadily since the emergence of Dez Bryant, I still feel comfortable projecting him for around 5. With his guaranteed role in the Cowboys offense, there is no reason to not consider Witten a top five tight end.

Defense: The Cowboys defense is a lot better than most people realize. The team certainly suffers late defensive collapses and injuries to key players have hampered their overall numbers. With a fully healthy system, under a not terrible coordinator, the skill level of Sean Lee, Demarcus Ware, #6 overall pick Mo Claibourne, an ACL-recovered Matt Johnson and a full year of Brandon Carr, this defense will surprise some people.

SEE MORE GREAT ARTICLES LIKE THIS IN OUR 2013 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT GUIDE!

Player to Watch: Bryant. Calvin Johnson has been the leading fantasy receiver two years in a row now, but before that it had not happened since the early 2000s when Marvin Harrison pulled it off. Given the unlikelihood of doing it two years in a row, three years would be a monster feat. If Johnson doesn’t three-peat, Bryant is the odds on favorite to take over the title.

Key Stat: 70.4%. Murray essentially claimed the role of lead back in the sixth game of the 2012 season. That means he’s been considered the best back on his team for 27 games. Unfortunately, he has missed eight of them, which means he’s only been healthy for 70.4% of the games since being the starter.

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