2014 Fantasy BaseballAndrew Miller

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Review

desmond land

Sunday night I had the opportunity to take part in an expert mock draft held by Nick Raducanu of FantasyTrade411 for his upcoming Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. The draft was a 12-teamer, which consisted of analysts from sites like Rotoworld, Fangraphs and Fake Teams, as well as several others. Below I’ll detail my draft as well as hit on a few of my selections I really liked. So this post will double as a mock review/players you should target piece. To see the full mock draft, purchase Nick’s guide, which will be released later this week.

I had the seventh pick in this 23-round draft containing your standard infield spots, five outfield spots, a middle- and corner-infielder, utility and nine pitcher spots. It was set to a 5×5 scoring system. My picks were:

  1. Robinson Cano
  2. Evan Longoria
  3. Ian Desmond
  4. Mark Trumbo*
  5. Madison Bumgarner*
  6. Carlos Santana*
  7. Alex Gordon
  8. Anibal Sanchez
  9. Jonathan Lucroy*
  10. Matt Cain*
  11. Daniel Murphy
  12. Billy Butler
  13. Brett Gardner
  14. Andrew Cashner
  15. Colby Rasmus
  16. Justin Masterson
  17. Alfonso Soriano
  18. Chris Carter
  19. Dan Haren
  20. Michael Bourn
  21. Cody Allen
  22. Luke Gregerson
  23. Joakim Soria

* – indicates player I’m very high on

Offense

I didn’t have any problem taking Cano seventh; I have him ranked sixth overall. There shouldn’t be any concern about Seattle’s lineup. The Mariners hit 44 more home runs than the Yankees last year, and even though they scored just 26 fewer runs they had a better OPS hitting in a worse park for hitters. In the second round I debated between Longoria and a few first basemen or outfielders, but decided on Longo due to third base being a little bit shallower than those other positions. Longoria’s averaged 29 home runs a year in his healthy seasons, and he’ll just be 28 this season.

I knew I had a good base in home runs so I wanted to get some steals while not sacrificing much power, so Desmond filled in perfectly here: 20-20 in consecutive seasons. I passed on first base earlier because I knew I could get a comparable player later, and that’s what I got with Trumbo. He’s averaged over 30 homers the past three years, and while he won’t help in average or steals he’s moving from a stadium with a right-handed park factor for home runs of 86 to a stadium with a 108 park factor for right-handed homers. It’s possible he could hit 40 bombs this year.

I keep landing Santana in mocks, and especially in this one a lot of hitters selected after him have question marks. Santana should qualify at catcher and first, and if all goes well this year, eventually third. His batted ball profile suggests a .260-.270 average is doable, and so are another 20+ homers with good run and RBI totals. Now, two rounds later I couldn’t pass on Lucroy at 103 overall. I’m able to slide Santana to first and Trumbo to the outfield. Lucroy’s able to hit for a good average and almost 20 home runs. Last year he chipped in nine steals, too, and if he’s there after pick 100 you should take him. Buster Posey went 37th in this draft, and the two had very similar lines last year, with Lucroy beating him in homers, RBI and steals. Butler and Murphy aren’t spectacular, but they won’t hurt me anywhere and have established high floors.

Going infield-heavy at the start of the draft left my outfield a little weak, but Gordon and Gardner should combine for 30 homers and over 30 steals while not hurting me in average. Rasmus‘s 22 homers in just 417 at-bats last year tied him for 19th among outfielders, and he now has back-to-back 20-homer seasons and three of his last four. I’m usually not a Soriano guy, but he fell too far. Father Time may catch up to him, but he’s shown no signs of wearing down and playing in Yankee Stadium should continue to help him. Carter and Bourn will give me a good combination of power and speed and should produce well for where I got them.

Pitching

I was able to land a bunch of my pitching targets, led by Bumgarner. He has three straight 200-inning seasons with a rising K rate (almost 25 percent) and very good ERA and WHIP numbers. He pitches in a ballpark that kills home runs, too. Sanchez has started at least 29 games in each of the last four seasons and saw an increase in velocity across the board last year, which led to a career-high strikeout rate. He’ll rack up the wins and be a four-category contributor, too. Talking about durability, Cain is your guy. He rebounded from an April that saw him post a 19 percent HR/FB rate, which is almost triple his career rate. After May 1 he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with everything else falling right in line with his career rates. He’ll be a value where you get him this year. I believe Cashner can pitch like he did in the second half last year (20.8 K rate, 3.2 K:BB, 2.14 ERA) for a full year. His home park (he had a 1.95 home ERA last year) always helps. Masterson might not strikeout almost 200 guys again, but I think he’s reliable and perform close to what he did last year. As long as Haren‘s healthy he’ll be a steal in the 19th round. In the second half last year he pitched 76.2 innings of 3.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 70 strikeouts and only 14 walks. With health and Dodger Stadium he could be in line for a nice bounce-back season.

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