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2014 Fantasy Baseball: Real Offensive Value — Catchers Part 1

mesoraco land
Source: Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America

There is and always will be a tension between fantasy baseball and real baseball. Real statistical analysts often ignore run producing statistics (runs and RBI) because they are largely what we may call opportunity statistics. They are dependent on the quality of the players around a particular player and not necessarily a reflection of the player himself. Unfortunately, fantasy players cannot afford to ignore two of the five major statistics.

We often find ourselves trying to find the one number that identifies a player and it just isn’t possible. I say this in the background of a statistic I have introduced in previous articles. It is called “real offensive value.” While I love the statistic (especially because it strokes my ego), I’d be remiss to introduce it on its own. When we look at all of the positions at the half-way point, we will include both opportunity statistics and sabermetric ones. Below is a short tutorial of what we will include in the series.

Real Offensive Value (ROV)

Calculated by averaging batting avg. and secondary avg.

Runs Created (RC)

complex formula that calculates the runs a player produces

Runs Created per PA (wRC+)

a Fangraphs metric that calculates the RC per PA.

Runs Produced (RP)

Runs + RBI – HR

Since this is more or less a vehicle for ROV, we should note that the current big league average for batting average is .251 and the current average for secondary average is .240. Secondary average calculates everything a player does outside of batting average. So, the combination of the two approximates what a player produces in batting average form (average would be .2455). We include the others as references that many of you are familiar. Runs produces includes the luck factor.

ROV

RC

wRC+

RP

Devin Mesoraco

.374

35

190

51

Derek Norris

.347

35

160

52

Jonathan Lucroy

.317

55

155

68

Evan Gattis

.313

40

147

51

Chris Iannetta

.298

25

129

34

Russell Martin

.296

23

139

38

John Jaso

.285

29

131

44

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

.284

24

111

32

Josmil Pinto

.277

12

106

28

Miguel Montero

.272

38

111

61

Alex Avila

.264

23

103

35

Salvador Perez

.261

34

116

47

A quick perusal through these names indicates the tension talked about above. There are 18 players listed as catchers (counting Joe Mauer) that have produced more than 40 runs. Nearly half of the names above have not done that. We will profile those other names in a subsequent article. The tension at catcher is particularly telling because fantasy players must choose between run production and the quality of that run production.

The average for wRC+ is always set at 100, so we see all of these players are producing better than the league average no matter what metric you use (whether it be ROV, OPS+, or wRC+), but some of them don’t get to play regularly. Obviously, we could limit the list to guys with 200 or more plate appearances, but that would limit the field to 21 catchers and would severely limit your options. Devin Mesoraco has to be owned and there are others on that list with fewer than 200 plate appearances that should be owned. Below is a list of those players.

Devin Mesoraco– Cincinnati Reds

Mesoraco may get to 200 plate appearances by the time you read this. He is on pace for more than 20 home runs. He has produced 51 runs, so he is owned by most leagues. However, he is a name that some have not considered as a dominant offensive player. He always profiled as one in the minors, but it often takes catchers a few years to establish themselves at the big league level. This year is his coming out party.

Chris Iannetta– Los Angeles Angels

Here is a prime example of a part-time player that could help your team. There are a number of players outside of the top dozen that get regular playing time, but you have to ask yourself how much they are giving you. Iannetta has always been a low batting average guy, but he walks a lot and has some decent power. He’s a great option in daily leagues when facing a left-handed starter.

Josmil Pinto– Minnesota Twins

The Twins are currently riding the Kurt Suzuki wave and who knows, maybe he will continue to hit for average while they limit his exposure. Pinto is actually a better offensive player with his low average. That’s where the .333 secondary average comes into play. His strikeouts are down from last year and his walks are up. A .245 BABIP is keeping his average artificially low, so he could be an intriguing sleeper candidate.

Russell Martin– Pittsburgh Pirates

Believe it or not, Martin is currently running career highs in walk rate and wRC+. His BABIP is slightly elevated, but not running too high. Out of all of the players listed, he is more likely to get a bulk of playing time, so he might be a decent trade candidate if you are struggling behind the dish. He missed most of May on the disabled list, so add a month of production to his numbers and you can see he might have had career highs in a number of categories.

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