2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 11 Roundup

Photo credit: Sports Crazy
Photo credit: Sports Crazy

After going 94-68 and clinching their first playoff berth in the last 21 years in 2013, the Pittsburgh Pirates came into 2014 with hopes of making another playoff appearance. As we all know, sometimes things are easier said than done. The Pirates currently sport a 33-34 record and are 6.5 games back of the National League Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. Whether it be the notable regression from both Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton, or struggling hitters like Starling Marte, the Buccos just haven’t been able to recapture their magic from last season.

They rank 18th in Major League Baseball with 4.04 runs per game and after they were forced to place a surging Neil Walker (oblique) on the 15-day disabled list earlier this week, the Pirates organization made the move so many around baseball had been waiting for. Late Monday night Gregory Polanco made the announcement himself on Twitter (@El_Coffee), he would be called up from Triple-A Indianapolis for the Pirates game on Tuesday. With high-profile prospects like George Springer, Oscar Taveras, and Jon Singleton getting called up by their respective clubs in the weeks prior, the anticipation for Polanco’s promotion among fantasy owners was reaching a boiling point. For those fortunate enough to own Polanco, the wait was finally over.

Polanco Promotion

Prior to being promoted from Triple-A, Polanco was raking down on the farm. In 62 games, Polanco posted a robust .347/.405/.540 slash line to go along with seven home runs, 49 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. The 22-year-old cemented his status as a top prospect this year by continuing his gradual improvement across the minor league ranks. Check out his minor league stats below.

Year/Stat

Games

HR

RBI

R

SB

AVG

     2012 (A)

116

16

85

84

40

.325

2013 (A+/AA/AAA)

127

12

71

65

37

.287

If you add it all up from 2012-2014, that would be a .320 average with 35 homers, 202 RBI, 196 runs, and 92 steals in 305 games. That’s some rock solid production right there. Excluding his first two years of rookie ball, Polanco’s 16.1% strikeout rate this year is the highest of his minor league career. That would seem to indicate that Polanco won’t have a problem hitting for a good average at the MLB level. Before the season, FanGraphs writer Marc Hulet wrote a scouting report on Polanco’s game. Check it out.

A fast-mover, Polanco is still learning so it’s impressive that he reached Triple-A on the strength of his raw talent. The outfielder has a chance to be an above-average fielder with right field being his most likely destination where he’ll be able to showcase his plus arm. At the plate, he flashes the ability to hit for both average and power but he’s still learning to identify and handle breaking balls. He also has a bit of a long swing at times and needs to focus on taking a shorter route to the ball because he doesn’t need to swing out of his shoes to hit the ball with authority — thanks to his above-average bat speed.

In his MLB debut on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs, Polanco hit second and went 1-5 with run scored. Judging by how high he batted in the lineup, you can see the amount of trust Pirates manager Clint Hurdle already has in the rookie. His lone hit is in the gif below.

Gif credit: @hwkane
Gif credit: @hwkane

Polanco was hitting .214 with two runs and an RBI in his first three games prior to Friday’s game, but then he put up an incredible performance to justify all the hype. Polanco went 5-7 with three runs and two RBI in the extra inning affair and also hit his first MLB homer, a go-ahead two-run shot in the 13th inning. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Polanco had five hits and a homer in a game quicker than anyone in the modern era! He’s now hitting .381 through his first four games. Primarily batting leadoff and second in his first couple games means he should be able to provide good value as the table-setter atop the lineup as he will be getting plenty of at-bats.

He’s curiously only owned in 66% of Y! leagues, so owners need to change that ASAP if he is somehow still available, although I would imagine he’s gone in most competitive formats. My projections for him the rest of season are as follows: .282/.338./.451 with 11 homers, 42 runs, 39 RBI, and 13 steals. Rookies are tough to predict as they usually experience more downs than ups at first, but Polanco is a special talent and should be able to post top-100 value with the upside for much more. Now might be the perfect time to sell high with his big performance last night as he has delivered so far and other owners are undoubtedly foaming at the mouth to acquire his services. If you’d rather stand pat though, enjoy the ride.

Chisenhalling Away

Lonnie Chisenhall has been quietly producing all season for the Cleveland Indians as their third baseman, but you wouldn’t know it by his ownership in Y! leagues. Before Monday’s historic outburst in Arlington against the Texas Rangers though, Chisenhall was only owned in 50% of Y! leagues even though he owned a .365/.413/.538 slash line with four homers, 23 RBI, and 26 runs in 50 games. Sure, the counting numbers are mediocre, but a .365 average is quite useful. Lo and behold, Chisenhall made sure fantasy owners would take notice and did they ever. Five days later Chisenhall’s ownership has skyrocketed to 76%.

In case you happened to missed his outstanding game on Monday, he just went 5-5 with three homers and nine RBI. Is that good? Figuring it’s the first nine RBI have been recorded in a game since Carlos Delgado back in 2008, I would say so. His nine-game hitting streak (multiple hits in five straight) that raised his average from .360 to .393, ended on Friday night. His current .384 average is good enough. His current season totals are seven homers, 32 RBI, 32 runs, and two steals in only 172 at-bats. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, he’d be leading MLB in average.

To indicate just how valuable he’s been to the Indians, his 2.2 WAR trails only Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier at the hot corner. This is especially impressive considering he has significantly less plate appearances than both of those players. Surprisingly, he seems to be more comfortable away from the confines of home as evidenced by his .413 average on the road. Chisenhall has been automatic with runners on base as well. He’s 3-3 with the bases loaded and 16-40 (.400) with RISP. The left-handed batter is having no problem against southpaws either, a big surprise when you look at how he fared against them last year. Chisenhall is 14-29 (.483) against lefties in 2014 after only going 4-36 (.111) against them last year. Quite a drastic improvement.

A peak behind the curtain reveals that Chisenhall’s hot start may not be as fluky as it seems. His .418 BABIP is ridiculous and will surely regress, but when you’re hitting line drives at a 28.3% clip, you’re going to be collecting plenty of hits. Additionally, his strikeout rate has dropped from 18.2% to 13.5% compared to last year while his ISO has climbed from .173 to .221. The 25-year-old is a former top prospect so we could be looking at a post-hype sleeper right here. He’s currently the 43rd ranked player in Y! and is ripe for the taking in roughly a quarter of leagues, make your move before it’s too late everyone. He won’t be this good, but he can provide good value the rest of the season.

Quit Dickerson Around

With the suprising news that Carlos Gonzalez is expected to miss the next five weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a “fatty mass with tentacles” from his finger and Michael Cuddyer (shoulder) will miss the next 6-8 weeks, the door officially opened for Colorado Rockies outfielder Corey Dickerson to seize a starting job while the two oft-injured players are on the disabled list. Based on his recent performance of recording a hit in 12 of his last 14 games and his season totals, it’s safe to say he’ll be garnering starts basically everyday.

Over his last 14 games, Dickerson is 16-49 (.326) with three homers, 10 runs, 10 RBI, and two steals. The 24-year-old is the 14th ranked player in Y! over the last two weeks. Although his playing time has been limited in the early going, you wouldn’t know it by looking at his season totals. Over his first 47 games and 121 at-bats, Dickerson is hitting .339 with eight homers, 23 RBI, 23 runs, and four steals for the year. His hot start isn’t just a byproduct of playing half his games at Coors Field either. While he is raking at home (.371), he’s also having plenty of success away from the altitude (.305).

Much like Chisenhall, Dickerson is doing the bulk of his damage with runners on board. With runners on he’s 22-46 (.478) and with RISP he’s 11-27 (.407). The lefty has made strides against right-handed pitchers as well. After hitting .278 in those situations last year, he’s drastically improved to a .349 mark this year. Looking at his advanced profile shows that he has made improvements in other areas as well. His 10.1% walk rate is above average according to FanGraphs and his O-Swing%, which indicates how often a batter swings at pitches outside the strike zone, has dropped from 42% to 34.7%. It’s clear he has developed a better eye at the plate. Additionally, his power output is encouraging. His ISO has risen from an okay .196 mark last year to a sensational .306 this year. Last but not least, his 33% line drive rate would tie Freddie Freeman for the best in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify.

If there is a negative to point out, it would have to be his poor to below average strikeout rate. Dickerson has struck out in 22.5% of his plate appearances this year but it obviously hasn’t been affecting him at the plate much lately. With job security for the foreseeable future, fantasy owners should run, not walk, to pick up Dickerson from the waiver wire. He’s only owned in 37% of Y! leagues! What else does he need to do to justify ownership? Nothing.

Monday Tidbits: Brandon Belt (thumb) fielded grounders. He’s hoping to return from the DL by the end of the month. Eddie Butler (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day DL and mixed league owners can move on for the time being. Ian Desmond went 3-5 with five RBI and is red hot at the plate lately. Grant Balfour was removed from the closers role after he was obliterated on Sunday (1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB). Jake McGee looks like the most obvious pickup. Kendrys Morales made his debut with the Minnesota Twins after signing a one-year, $7.6 million contract. Fantasy owners in need of power should make the add. Edwin Encarnacion blasted his 20th homer. Garrett Richards held the Athletics to one earned over seven innings after getting lit up by them last time. He now owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the year. Michael Brantley with 3-3 with five runs. The magical season continues. Tommy Hunter returned from the DL but Zach Britton still is in control of the closers role.

Tuesday Tidbits: Francisco Liriano (oblique) left his start and was subsequently placed on the DL. What a nightmare of a season for the injury-prone southpaw. Wilson Ramos (hamstring) was forced to leave the game and is headed for the DL. Manny Machado was suspended 5 games for his actions against the A’s last weekend. He’s appealing the suspension and will be able to play until they rule on it. Adam Wainwright threw seven shutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, lowering his ERA to 2.15. Matt Holliday hit his fourth homer of the year, hopefully his power starts coming in bunches. Anthony Rizzo went 3-4 with three runs and three RBI to lift his average up to .284. The Chicago Cubs first baseman is having a breakout season. Jonathan Papelbon recorded his 14th save of the year and 300th of his career. Trevor Rosenthal got the four-out save for his 17th save of the year. Josh Beckett fired six more shutout innings and is the proud owner of a 2.35 ERA. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Drew Pomeranz surrendered only an unearned run over seven innings and he has a 1.90 ERA. He’s available in 45% of Y! leagues. Doug Fister earned his fifth straight win after blanking the San Francisco Giants over seven innings.

Wednesday Tidbits: Collin McHugh (blister) is scheduled to make his start today but the blister could be an explanation for why he walked five last game. Adam Wainwright underwent an MRI on his elbow after complaining of sorness but there is no ligament damage. Sounds like a major crisis has been averted, but he could have his next start skipped or pushed back. After announcing that Grant Balfour was removed from the closers role, Rays manager Joe Maddon inserted him for the final 2 1/3 innings and he responded by not giving up a run and earning a save. Who knows who will get the next chance. Johnny Cueto struck out 12 Dodgers over six scoreless innings and has a 1.85 ERA. Tyson Ross threw seven shutout innings against the Phillies and lowered his ERA to 2.97. Cliff Lee played catch for the first time since being placed on the DL. Andrew McCutchen hit his sixth homer of June after going yard against the Cubs. Julio Teheran had his worst start of the season at Coors Field (who doesn’t?) after allowing seven earned in 6 1/3. Yu Darvish recorded the first complete game shutout of his career against the Miami Marlins. Masahiro Tanaka improved to 10-1 and is single-handedly keeping the Yankees alive. Phil Hughes dominated the Blue Jays to the tune of nine strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. He’s matchup-proof at this point. Yordano Ventura fired seven innings of one-run ball to earn his fourth win of the year, but he only struck out three batters. Hopefully his strikeouts pick back up soon, he’s still throwing as hard as ever. Josmil Pinto was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. Robinson Cano hit his first homer of the season at home. Event hough he’s on pace for less than 10 homers, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t clear the 20-homer threshold.

Thursday Tidbits: Michael Saunders (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day DL. Jesus Montero was recalled from Triple-A Tacoma to take Saunder’s spot on the Mariners active roster. In his 179th start in MLB, Max Scherzer rattled off the first complete game of his career. The streak to begin his career was the longest in MLB history. Never would have expected to hear that considering his talent and dominance of late. Jose Altuve left the game after being hit on the hand, but X-rays came back negative. He might miss a game or two, but should be good to go soon. Jonathan Lucroy hit a two-run bomb and is now batting .336 for the year. Might be the most underrated catcher (or hitter) in the game. Gio Gonzalez allowed only a run over seven innings in his rehab start with Triple-A Potomac and should rejoin the Nationals rotation sometime next week. Tim Hudson recorded another quality start (7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 5 K), his eighth in his last nine tries. He has a 1.81 ERA and is the 20th ranked player in Y!. What a remarkable year for the grizzled veteran. Alfredo Simon continued his suprising start to the year by earning his 9th win. Tony Cingrani, not Simon, will head to the bullpen when Mat Latos returns. Mark Trumbo is at least a month away from returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Matt Adams will be activated from the DL on Friday.

Friday Tidbits: Josh Donaldson went hitless again and is now 0-24 over his last six games. Shane Victorino (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket on Saturday. Corey Hart (hamstring) took BP for the first time since going on the DL. Brandon Belt (thumb) took dry swings and is still on track to return later this month. Jimmy Rollins recorded his 2,234 hit as a member of the Phillies, tying Mike Schmidt on their all-time hit list. He’s having a productive year with eight homers and 10 steals. Jake Arrieta struck out nine batters while only giving up a run over seven scoreless innings. He’s only owned in 8% of leagues, yet he’s been really good lately. Neil Ramirez recorded a save for the Cubs as normal closer Hector Rondon is dealing with a sore elbow. Lance Lynn fired eight scoreless innings against the Nationals to earn his seventh win of the year. He sports a quality 3.16 ERA, lets hope the second-half struggles don’t happen again this year. Matt Adams (calf) hit a bomb in his first game back from the DL. Drew Hutchison held the Orioles scoreless over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 3.62. Although he will have his share of stinkers pitching in the AL East, he deserves to be owned in more than 28% of Y! leagues. Giancarlo Stanton hit his NL-leading 18th homer of the year. Ho-hum. Alex Cobb got back on track and dominated the Astros to the tune of 11 punchouts while only allowing a run over 6 1/3. Jon Singleton took Cobb deep for his fourth homer of the year. His average won’t be anything special, but his power looks to be legit. George Springer went 0-4 with the golden sombrero. After allowing only six runs his last four starts, Nathan Eovaldi got lit up for six runs over 4 2/3 innings versus the Pirates. Starling Marte tied his career-high with four hits and has been hot at the plate lately. Felix Hernandez only gave up one earned run over 8 1/3 against the Rangers, but the Mariners gave him no run support and he was saddled with the loss. Billy Hamilton hit the go-ahead RBI single and stole his 25th bag of the year.

Thanks to FanGraphs and Yahoo for the statistical information. Be sure to comment below with any remarks of questions you may have. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions you may have.

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