2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 21 Roundup

Photo credit: Arturo Pardavila III
Photo credit: Arturo Pardavila III

With the Major League Baseball season entering the stretch run and the National Football League set to begin in a matter of weeks, you may be noticing some owners jumping ship on their teams as they begin their preparation for the upcoming fantasy football season. Now, I’m not advising you do that by any means, but if you are, why not check out our 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide to help you dominate the competition. With that quick aside out of the way, it’s time to discuss how the rapidly approaching fantasy football season may be helpful to us fantasy baseball owners who are still in the hunt.

Now is the time to be constantly scouring your waiver wire for players coming back from the DL (Yadier Molina, Wil Myers, Michael Wacha, Andrew Cashner), players taking advantage of additional playing time due to injuries to studs ahead of them on the depth chart (Drew Stubbs, David Peralta), or guys simply riding hot streaks (Jon Jay, Oswaldo Arcia, Matt Shoemaker). The point being there is tons of value on waiver wires to be had at the moment and with fantasy football thoughts creeping in for some, paying attention and making the right adds will pay dividends for your team come seasons end. Sometimes the guys you would least expect to carry a fantasy squad do just that and owners ride their coattails to championship and the posterboy for that scenario is the focal point of the ensuing topic.

Carter Going Bonkers

Heading into Independence Day, Chris Carter was slashing an anemic .182/.263/.401 with only 13 homers and hardly looked worthy of receiving everyday at-bats for a lousy Astros team. Since July 4 though, Carter has been clicking on all cylinders. The 27-year-old DH for the Astros is batting .309 with an astounding 17 homers, 42 RBI, and 32 runs over those 38 games to improve his triple slash to .230/.298/.514 as of this writing. Carter is the top ranked player over the last month and it’s really not even close. You can check out his 30th homer of the year right here.

.230-30 HR-72 RBI-56 R-2 SB… In our current era where homers and run production come at a premium, Carter is certainly supplying an abundance of power for owners who have been lucky enough to ride the wave. His 30 homers are already a career-high total, and he still has 35 games left to add to his numbers. The behemoth slugger has come through in the clutch as evidenced by his .300 average with RISP, an unexpected bonus considering he’s a career .241 hitter in such situations.

While Carter’s walk rate has dropped five percent, he has also cut his enormous strikeout rate by over five percent (31 percent). Another positive is Carter owns a .287 ISO, trailing only fellow sluggers Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion. Additionally, Carter is lifting fly balls into the air at a 53.7% clip and his approach seems to be working with the short porch in left field at Minute Maid Park. For the most part though, we know what kind of player Carter is. He possesses prodigious power and has the ability to carry teams when he goes on his power binges, but his massive strikeout rate makes him an all-or-nothing player who can disappear when a cold streak hits. At the moment though, he is showing no signs of slowing down as he’s been even better in August (.329) compared to July (.289), and owners should ride him for as long as possible.

Richards Season In Jeopardy

Garrett Richards has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the fantasy baseball season and is a big reason why the Angels are in first place in the AL West, but his season came to a screeching halt last night after he suffered a gruesome injury to his left knee while trying to cover first base. He was in agony and writhing on the ground in the video and eventually had to be carted off. The Angels initial diagnosis points to a left patellar tendon injury and at this juncture, Richards can safely be ruled out for the remainder of the season.

It’s an extremely disappointing way for the 26-year-old to end the year as he was having a breakout campaign on the mound. Richards will likely finish 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 164/51 K:BB ratio over 168 2/3 innings. He currently rates as the 25th ranked player in Yahoo leagues and with an ADP of 203.2, he was providing an enormous profit for owners. Barring unexpected good news, it’s safe to drop Richards in redraft formats, but he obviously still holds a ton of long-term appeal as a keeper/dynasty option. Here are some pitching options I would target that are owned in 50 percent or less of Y! leagues: Marcus Stroman, Bartolo Colon, Collin McHugh, Matt Shoemaker, Phil Hughes, Kyle Kendricks.

Giancarlo Making Case for MVP

The Miami Marlins are 63-63, besting their win total from last year (62) and they sit only four games back of a wild-card spot in the National League even without the services of star pitcher Jose Fernandez. Raise your hand if you could have predicted that…sheepishly puts his hand down. As one could imagine, Giancarlo Stanton is leading the charge for the surprising Marlins team. The 24-year-old displayed his latest heroics on Tuesday night as he came through in the way of a walk-off single. Stanton has posted some gaudy statistics this year, as he boasts a .295/.400/.561 line with 32 homers, 89 RBI, 79 runs, and 10 steals. His RBI total is a career-high while he is tied for a career-high in runs and he’s five bombs away from matching his career-best 37 homers he established in 2012. Oh, by the way, he’s only been caught stealing once.

Stanton has been sizzling in August with a .306 average to go along with seven homers. With 36 games left, Stanton has an outside shot at eclipsing the 40 home run plateau. After only hitting .278 against southpaws in 2013, the artist formerly known as “Mike” is crushing left-handers to the tune of a .352 average this season. The third ranked player in Y! leagues has officially reached superstar status. Check out the table below for some key differences in his batting profile.

Year/Stat

K%

ISO

OBP

wRC+

LD%

HR/FB

    O-Contact

2013

27.8%

.231

.365

135

18.2%

21.8%

49.4%

2014

25.8%

.267

.400

162

20%

25.2%

53.7%

Perhaps the most interesting stat is his 4.3 percent increase in putting pitches in play that are outside the strike zone. This is largely due to his improved plate coverage on the outer part of the plate. This is evident in the two RAA/100P heat maps below, which show how many runs above average Stanton has been in each specific area.

Giancarlo 2013 Heat Map

Giancarlo 2014 Heat Map

 

 

 

2013 is on the left and you can see Stanton struggled on high and inside pitches as well as high and away pitches. The difference in his 2014 heat map is night and day compared to 2013 as the vaunted outfielder is hammering pitches up and away and is having success when pitchers try to jam him high and inside. As one would expect by looking at his heat map, Stanton has made better use of hitting the ball to the opposite field and it’s noticeable in the following spray charts.

2013 Spray Chart
2013 Spray Chart

 

2014 Spray Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The added ability to go the other way has undoubtedly been a factor in him registering a career-high batting average so far. It’s harder than ever to bat over .300 these days, but don’t count Giancarlo out, he’s a top-five talent. Pitchers may want to limit the amount of fastballs to him as he owns a 24.4 wFB, meaning he’s roughly 24 runs more productive against that pitch than an average MLB player. That mark rates as the best in the league. Yup, this guy is pretty, pretty good.

Monday Tidbits: Javier Baez hit his fifth homer and is providing the power owners were hoping for. After being pulled from a save chance last time out, Trevor Rosenthal blew another save chance. He’s still the closer for the time being, but Pat Neshek is looming in the background. Adam LaRoche socked a walk-off homer and is up to 19 HR and 67 RBI for the campaign. Wilson Ramos hit a two-run homer and has collected a hit in 1o of his last 11 games to raise his average to .298. Vance Worley got rocked for six runs in the first inning against the Braves, although he did notch eight strikeouts. Starling Marte belted two homers. Nelson Cruz hit his 32nd homer of the year but his production has predictably fallen off in the second half. Greg Holland earned his 38th save and hopefully he won’t wear down the stretch after admitting to feeling fatigued.

Tuesday Tidbits: Mike Fiers continued his dominance on the mound by limiting the Blue Jays to a run over seven innings and he now has 25 strikeouts over his last three starts. Jhonny Peralta hit his 17th homer of the year, a franchise-high for shortstops on the Cardinals. Owners should consider adding the 27th ranked player over the last two weeks. Zack Greinke (elbow) is questionable to make his upcoming start according to Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. Michael Cuddyer (hamstring) is expected to return to the Rockies lineup on Friday. Scott Kazmir notched his 14th win of the year by limiting the Mets to a run over six innings. Joe Mauer continues to rack up hits as he went 2-4 with an RBI double and has improved his average to .277. James Shields fared well at Coors Field as he held the Rox to two runs over six innings. Cody Allen picked up his 16th save for the Tribe and has only blown one chance all season. David Robertson surrendered a three-run homer but it was a non-save situation so owners can just consider this a minor blip. Jose Abreu hit his 32nd homer, his first since July 29. Look for Abreu to hit for more power down the stretch as he wraps up the AL Rookie of the Year award. Hisashi Iwakuma punched out 11 Phillies over eight shutout innings and owns a tidy 2.57 ERA. Ian Desmond collected four RBI and with 77 RBI, he’s four RBI away from breaking his career-high. Justin Upton continued his tear by blasting a three-run homer to go along with a two-run single. Upton has 80 RBI and should have no problem besting his career-high of 88. Andrew McCutchen (rib) went hitless in his return from the DL. Carlos Gonzalez (knee) underwent surgery on his patellar tendon and is out for the year. Oswaldo Arcia hit a homer for the third game in a row and now has five over his last 10 games. Owners in need of power should scoop him up ASAP.

Wednesday Tidbits: Neftali Feliz earned his fifth save since becoming the closer but he allowed two solo home runs in the process. His velocity isn’t returning and he’s pitching for the worst team in baseball, avoid him unless desperate for saves. Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon collected his 30th save of the year in uneventful fashion. Carlos Gomez hit his third homer in the last four games and is the only player in baseball to sport a 20/20 line (21 HR/27 SB). Lucas Duda hit his 23rd homer of the year and upped his RBI total to 69. He’s available in 35% of Y! leagues and is the 32nd ranked player over the last month. Jeurys Familia earned a five-out save as Jenrry Mejia was out with a sore back. Injuries have hurt his ability to perform on the field lately and Familia looks like the better bet for saves at the moment. Jeff Samardzija was lit up to the tune of seven earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Mets and his ERA jumped from 2.96 to 3.27. Andrew Cashner (shoulder) will rejoin the Padres rotation this weekend and owners will welcome his shiny 2.36 ERA to their squads. Jacob deGrom (shoulder) will be activated on Saturday to face the Dodgers. Yadier Molina (thumb) took his first swings since being placed on the DL and is looking to make a return in mid-September. Michael Wacha (shoulder) may begin a rehab assignment within the next two weeks. Wil Myers (wrist) was activated from the DL and should be scooped up for the stretch run in most formats. David Ortiz went 4-4 and one of his hits turned out to be his 30th homer. Tanner Roark blanked the Diamondbacks over seven innings but was left with a no-decision. He now sports a nifty 2.80 ERA. Rick Porcello tossed his third shutout of the season as he had his way with the Rays. Before this season he had zero career shutouts. Victor Martinez helped Porcello out by hammering a grand slam. Lance Lynn stymied the Reds (7 IP-0 ER-5 K) and now owns a 2.78 ERA. After second-half collapses the last two years, Lynn is proving that he’s one of the NL’s best starters. Brian Dozier stole a base and joined Carlos Gomez as the only two players in the 20/20 club. Hunter Pence had a combo meal as he provided a homer and a steal to continue another fine season at the plate. Anthony Rendon came on as a pinch-hitter and delivered a walk-off single to propel the Nationals to their ninth consecutive win.

Thanks to FanGraphs, BrooksBaseball, and Yahoo for providing the statistical information. Be sure to comment with any questions or remarks you may have. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy. Thanks for reading. 

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