Fantasy Basketball

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Russell Westbrook Fallout

Photo credit: Keith Allison
Photo credit: Keith Allison

On a seemingly innocuous play where Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook ended up getting his hand caught in an opponents jersey while going up for a rebound, NBA fans and fantasy owners alike received a frightening early Halloween scare. An X-ray confirmed owners worst nightmares as Westbrook was diagnosed with a fractured second metacarpal in his right hand, and while no official timetable has been released yet, a normal recovery time for this type of injury is 4-6 weeks. The Thunder plan to issue an update on his status later today, but owners need to brace themselves for a lengthy absence.

UPDATE: (Nov. 1st) – Russell Westbrook underwent surgery on his fractured hand and the Thunder will re-evaluate his status in four weeks.

This is devastating news for fantasy owners who spent a first-round pick or an abundance of fake money on him in an auction, as he was set to be a fantasy monster with the Thunder already without superstar Kevin Durant. If his first game was any indication (32-3-6 w/ 3 ST, 15-16 FT), he was well on his way to returning top-10 value. It’s no time for what ifs though as looking ahead is of the utmost importance in an injury situation like this. With that being said, let’s take a look at who will be the primary fantasy beneficiaries.

Although he is out with an ankle injury of his own and may not return until next week, Reggie Jackson stands to benefit the most from this unfortunate situation. Jackson is going to get all the minutes he can handle upon his return, and owners have reason to be excited as R-Jax averaged a 13.1-3.9-4.1 line to go along with 1.1 steals, 1.0 three-pointers, and 89.3 percent free throw shooting in 28.5 MPG last season. With 30-40 minutes on a nightly basis, Jackson could come close to averaging 18-5-5 while also upping his averages in 3PM and steals. The only categories he will regress in are turnovers and likely field goal percentage due to his increased usage in the wake of the multitude of injuries on the Thunder roster. He has a real chance to be a top-50 value for as long as Durant and Westbrook are sidelined.

While Jackson stands to benefit the most, Perry Jones was the player who stole the show last night. In 42 minutes, Jones poured in a career-high 32 points with seven rebounds, three assists, three 3-pointers, and a block. Furthermore, PJ3 was efficient from the field as he shot 10-of-17 from the field and 9-of-11 from the charity stripe. He obviously won’t normally be this good and will be prone to some off nights (1-9 FG in season-opener), but on a team desperate for scoring, Jones is going to be plenty involved on offense. Averaging 13-16 points seems like a reasonable baseline as long as Durant and Westy are out of the lineup. His ability to post decent rebounding totals with some triples and defensive stats is encouraging news for his fantasy value. Currently, Jones is only owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues, but that number is swiftly rising. If he’s still available in your league, it would be a wise move to add him.

Serge Ibaka was already destined to be a first-round value in 9-cat leagues before the Westbrook injury and this news only further cements his status as a first-rounder. While the 25-year-old Congo native failed to record to a block, he still managed to score 17 points with nine rebounds to go along with his two 3-pointers. Ibaka only failed to post a block in 11 games last season so owners shouldn’t be expecting many more of these goose eggs in the blocks department for one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA. Ibaka has increased his scoring average the last three seasons and after averaging a career-high 15.1 PPG last season, he is set to take a step forward to the 17-18 PPG range as one of the primary offensive options on the team. This may be the year he averages double-digit rebounds after averaging 8.8 boards per game a season ago. Ibaka will continue to provide excellent field goal and free throw percentages for a center, and if he can hit close to a trey per game his value will continue to improve.

Sebastian Telfair had 11 points and seven assists with a triple in 38 minutes and could have some short-term value, but when Jackson returns Telfair will return to fantasy wasteland.  Andre Roberson played 37 minutes and put up a 9-6-3 line with two steals, but he’s not worthy of a pickup in fantasy leagues with less than 12 teams due to him not being much of a scorer. A popular sleeper pick by some, Steven Adams failed to impress for the second straight game as he scored six points with 10 rebounds on 2-8 FG in 28 minutes. He’s still raw on the offensive end and is unlikely to average double-digit points totals, but he should be able to post 7-8 boards per game while also chipping in some blocks. Beware of his free throw shooting though.

NOTE – Last night in an 8-cat auction draft I drafted Russell Westbrook ($63) with my first selection and a couple minutes later is when the injury happened. Safe to say, this post pains me just as much as I’m sure it does to some of you. Wishing the “better to be lucky than good” saying didn’t apply in this instance.

Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy.

Previous post

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: The Keys to Winning Your League

Next post

2014 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, October 31st 2014