2014 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Football: Week 8 NFC Target Report

fitz land
Larry Fitzgerald
Source: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America

It’s that time of the week again folks. Waiver wire additions and lineup decisions become the main focus as we await the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to kick off the Week 8 games on Thursday Night Football. Looking at wide receivers usage through targets is a great way to help evaluate past results and future production and see whether performances are sustainable or not. If you happen to be unfamiliar with the formatting, I will examine the usage of five players by their targets and attempt to describe what it means in relation to said player’s fantasy value. Targets and the percentage of targets caught will be in parentheses to the right. Additionally, the targets will be displayed on a week-to-week basis to the right of the parentheses. Without further ado, the Week 8 NFC Target Report is now live.

Larry Fitzgerald – (49 targets/61.2 percent caught) 4-10-7-BYE-7-6-5-10

Fitzgerald turned back the clock on Sunday as he went off for a 7-160-1 line and all it took to cure his season-long woes was a date against his favorite opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles. In six career meetings against the Eagles, Fitz has recorded 11 touchdowns. It’s safe to say that Fitzgerald had been a major letdown for owners up until this game as he was averaging 3.8 catches for 47.1 yards and a score through the Cardinals first six games. With that being said, it was encouraging to see him match his season-high in targets (10), but it may not be an accurate reflection of his value going forward.

Fitz has only cleared five catches on three occasions while also failing to record more than 10 fantasy points in three of six games. At this juncture Fitzgerald is currently WR36 in PPR formats, barely returning WR3 value. Carson Palmer has a bevy of options in the passing game in Michael Floyd, John Brown, and Andre Ellington, and Fitzgerald will continue to struggle with consistency in the Cardinals spread the wealth approach. Treat him as a low-upside WR3 until he proves otherwise. He has another nice matchup against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9, and I would be looking to sell-high on him if he has another good performance if you haven’t already. This isn’t the Fitzgerald of yesteryear.

Randall Cobb – (55/72.7 percent) 9-6-6-9-4-7-7-7

Cobb continues to defy logic based on his current usage, height, and past touchdown rates as the 24-year-old caught his career-high ninth touchdown of the year. He put up a 5-127-1 line on only seven targets and while he has been dominant in the touchdown department when in the red zone, his score came on a 70-yard bomb. The speedster out of Kentucky has scored in seven of eight Packers games and is on pace for a mind-boggling 80-1,156-18 line. Currently, Cobb is the number four wideout in PPR formats. While he’s been an excellent value so far, I’m not sure so it’s sustainable.

It doesn’t take a genius to know that his touchdown rate is simply unsustainable and it would be much more realistic to project 12-13 touchdowns rather than the 18 he is currently on pace for, especially since he isn’t even the best wide receiver on his own team. Furthermore, the 55 targets Cobb has seen for the season are only good for 28th in the NFL. Cobb will be extremely hard-pressed to keep up his average of 19.34 PPR points per game when he only averages 6.9 targets a game. You have to treat Cobb as a WR1 at the moment and even if he regresses to the mean, he’s high-upside WR2. I would be looking to sell-high on Cobb if you can get an adequate return like Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones from owners who may be worried about them. Cobb and the Packers are on bye in Week 9.

DeSean Jackson (54/59.3 percent) 9-2-11-4-115-5-7

There was some cause for concern that Colt McCoy being inserted as the temporary Washington Redskins quarterback would hurt Jackson’s fantasy value due to McCoy’s so-so arm, but D-Jax squashed that notion by posting a 6-136 line on seven targets. It would have been an even bigger day if McCoy didn’t under throw Jackson on a deep ball that would have gone for an 87-yard touchdown rather than the 45-yard pickup it turned out to be. While he is on pace for less catches and touchdowns, D-Jax is still on a 64-1,328-6 pace and possesses plenty of value. His rest of season outlook is very promising as the Redskins announced that Robert Griffin III will be the starting quarterback in Week 9. This bodes well for his chances of connecting on more deep balls.

To date, Jackson is the WR15 in PPR leagues and he looks like he is here to stay as an every-week WR2. Averaging 6.8 targets a week, Jackson owners can project a slight increase in targets with the return of RG3. The 27-year-old already has four 100+ yard games this season after establishing a career-high of five such games in 2013. Fire him up as a high-upside WR2 against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.

Kelvin Benjamin (68/55.9 percent) 8-8-11-9-11-8-6-7

While a 4-94 line from Benjamin wasn’t single-handedly winning owners fantasy matchups, it was an especially encouraging performance from the 23-year-old out of Florida State considering he was uncharacteristically shadowed by Richard Sherman. If not for Benji dropping a perfectly placed pass in the end zone after beating Sherman off the line, it would have been a solid fantasy outing. His hands could definitely use some work as he’s had a case of butterfingers throughout the year, but averaging 8.5 targets per week ensures him enough volume to sustain or better his current pace. Benjamin is currently the WR13 in PPR formats. His 68 targets are six more than Greg Olsen, the next closest contender among the Carolina Panthers pass-catchers. The rookie has five scores already and is a great weekly bet to score due to his imposing size and weekly consistency in targets.

Benji is on a 76-1,142-10 pace and I wouldn’t be shocked if he outpaced those numbers coming down the stretch. He gets to face the burnable secondaries of the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons over the next three weeks before the Panthers bye in Week 12. Benjamin is right on the WR1 borderline and I believe he will produce like one down the stretch, but he’s best served as a high-upside WR2 to be safe. With that being said, look for Benjamin to have a nice outing in what will likely turn into a shootout against the Saints.

Julio Jones (83/63.9 percent) 9-13-11-8-16-12-8-6

If you can find a panicked Jones owner out there who is looking to deal the uber talented wideout, by all means take advantage of the opportunity. Granted, four of the last five weeks have been mediocre efforts from the 25-year-old Alabama alum and he hasn’t found pay dirt since Week 3, but his weekly consistency in targets suggests he’s due to bust out in a big way soon. His 83 targets are good for second most in the NFL while he is also averaging a healthy 10.4 targets per week. Jones is still obviously the most talented wide receiver among the Atlanta Falcons pass-catching corps and coming out of the Week 9 bye will get to face the sub-par defensive units of the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Browns.

Simply put, there isn’t much to fret about when it comes to determining Jones fantasy value. He is the seventh-best WR in PPR formats and is a top-5 wideout ROS in whatever fantasy format you may be in. Furthermore, Julio is still on a 106-1,468-6 pace and while more touchdowns would be nice, owners would have gladly signed up for the catches and yardage totals he’s posting considering the injury risk. Expect the touchdowns to come in bunches in the coming weeks as he’s simply too talented of a player to be held down for too long. Buy all the shares you can of him.

Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks you may have concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer questions you may have.

Previous post

2014 College Football: Week 10 DFS - Early Only

Next post

2014 Fantasy Hockey Daily Fix, October 30th 2014