2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Post Title. 10/18/2011
This is your new blog post. Click here and start typing, or drag in elements from the top bar. Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros Add Comment Following my 2B analysis, ranking the Outfield is like shooting fish in a barrel. There is a shortage of depth, but the Tier lines are very distinct. When entering many of my fantasy drafts, my first priority is securing the elite at the shallowest positions. Generally, I use my Outfield to strengthen individual or duel categories without focusing on the elite. There are 90 starting OFs on any given night during the regular baseball season, and with injuries plentiful, new talent appears every week. Let’s take a look at who has truly distinguished themselves in the fantasy baseball picture. Decision based on current production, career consistency, potential future results, health, and presence. (Runs-HRs-RBIs-SB-AVG)  Tier 1 1) Josh Hamilton, TEX (73-24-77-7-.355) 2) Ryan Braun, MIL (69-16-68-13-.290) 3) Carl Crawford, TB (78-12-58-38-.299) 4) Carlos Gonzalez, COL (75-25-77-18-.327) 5) Matt Holliday, STL (64-21-67-7-.298)  Tier 2 6) Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (65-21-86-4-.301) 7) Alex Rios, CWS (64-17-64-24-.298) 8) Jose Bautista, TOR (74-34-85-4-.260) 9) Delmon Young, MIN (53-14-84-4-.321) 10) Andre Ethier, LAD (51-18-63-1-.296) 11) Nelson Cruz, TEX (35-15-61-14-.314)  Tier 3 12) Chris Young, ARZ (62-19-67-22-.269) 13) Matt Kemp, LAD (62-18-61-16-.258) 14) Jayson Werth, PHI (67-16-58-7-.301) 15) Cory Hart, MIL (57-23-75-5-.291) 16) Justin Upton, ARZ (63-16-56-13-.280) 17) Adam Dunn, WAS (65-30-77-0-.274) 18) Shane Victorino, PHI ++++ (59-15-53-20-.250) 19) Nick Swisher, NYY (70-22-66-1-.299) 20) Aubrey Huff, SF (72-20-67-5-.304)  Tier 4 21) Torii Hunter, ANA (59 18 70 9 .294) 22) Angel Pagan, NYM (59 9 50 26 .311) 23) Brett Gardner, NYY (67-5-36-31-.283) 24) Shin-Soo Choo, CLE (55-14-53-14-.295) 25) Colby Rasmus, STL (61-18-48-10-.274) 26) Andrew McCutchen, PIT (61-9-33-22-.286) 27) Andres Torres, SF (63-11-45-21-.289) 28) Carlos Quentin, CWS (56-22-70-2-.232) 29) Raul Ibanez, PHI (54-11-57-3-.274)  Tier 5
30) Alfonso Soriano, CHC (52-19-57-4-.259) 31) Jonny Gomes, CIN (53-13-66-3-.272) 32) Vernon Wells,TOR (56-22-60-5-.274) 33) Hunter Pence, HOU (63-15-58-13-.278) 34) Ben Zobrist, TB (52-6-47-22-.264) 35) Drew Stubbs, CIN (56-14-51-18-.234) 36) Denard Span, MIN (63-3-42-18-.269) 37) Jason Heyward, ATL (54-11-50-8-.261) 38) Michael Cuddyer, MIN (66-10-50-3-.273) 39) Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (46-3-29-28-.312) 40) B.J. Upton, TB (59-10-41-32-.233) 41) Nick Markakis, BAL (52-8-40-4-.297) 42) Scott Podsednik, LAD (49-5-47-34-.300) 43) Bobby Abreu, ANA (61-12-60-16-.253) 44) Josh Willingham, WAS (52-15-54-8-.264) 45) Cody Ross, FLA (54- 10-53-9-.270) 46) Garrett Jones, PIT (47-16-63-6-.264) 47) Marlon Byrd, CHC (61-10-48-4-.310) 48) Juan Pierre, CWS (46-3-29-28-.312) 49) Curtis Granderson, NYY (48-10-33-10-.243) 50) Dexter Fowler, COL (47-3-19-11-.244) 51) Mike Stanton, FLA (24-10-31-4-.233) 52) Carlos Lee, HOU (48-14-56-2-.248) 53) Jon Jay, STL (26-3-14-1-.371) 54) Jason Kubel, MIN (46-15-68-0-.266) 55) Jason Bay, NYM (48-6-47-10-.259) 56) Michael Bourne, (62-1-27-35-.254) 57) Austin Jackson, DET (64-1-25-16-.307) 58) Adam Lind, TOR (41-15-50-0-.224) 59) JD Drew, BOS (51-12-51-2-.259) Written by The Fantasy Mechanic exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can catch him on Twitter @FantasyFix_FM Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Advice, MLB, Ranks, Outfield, OF, Fantasy Mechanic  Shortstop is a top heavy position in fantasy baseball. After five or six elite guys and three to four more decent options, the bottom falls out fast. Those playing in the popular ten-team mixed leagues might not have too much trouble filling their SS spot, but those in deeper leagues will most likely be scrambling for production. At this point in the roto season, the best thing you can do is to see which categories you can still pick up points, and use your SS spot to go after those category-specific needs.
TIER 1 Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 100 percent owned There is a lot of talk going around about Hanley’s “down” year. Sure, he had all of one extra base hit in July, and his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is significantly lower than it has been in previous years, but ESPN’s player rater shows he has been the best shortstop to this point. His current BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is 44 points lower than his career average, and he is striking out less while walking more. He is going to be fine. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, 100 percent owned The only thing to worry about with Tulo is him missing more time due to injury, because he has been fantastic when in the lineup. The numbers he has put up in 2010 would look like this scaled out to a full 162 game season: .315, 23 HR, 16 SB, 114 RBI, 98 R. Jose Reyes, New York Mets, 100 percent owned The majority of Reyes’s fantasy value is in his ability to steal bases. As we all know, you have to get on base to steal bases. Unfortunately, Reyes currently has his lowest OBP since his rookie year primarily because he is swinging at more balls outside of the strike zone and walking less. As a result, his SB/AB percent is .052, which is significantly lower than his previous career low of .081 in 2008. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 100 percent owned Take away Alexei’s awful month of April (.221, 1 HR, 1 SB, 13 K, 1 BB), and the South Side shortstop has a line of .293, 10 HR, 7 SB, 48 R, and 35 RBI. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, 100 percent owned Andrus has plenty of value because he leads all shortstops in steals with 27 and is second in runs with 67. However, his groundball rate is up and his fly ball rate is down, which has led to 100 singles (out of 115 hits), zero homers, and an embarrassingly low slugging percentage of .316. TIER 2 Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 100 percent owned Some might argue that Jeter’s lower-than-usual batting average is a result of his BABIP being 45 points lower than his career average. However, if you read the Fix’s latest sabermetrics article BABIP For Dummies, you know that a hitter can influence his BABIP by legging out infield singles and shooting the gaps between defenders. Unfortunately for Jeter, he may be slowing down with age, and he is not driving the ball like he used to because, according to Fangraphs, his line drive rate is down almost three percent from his career average. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies, 100 percent owned Since winning the NL MVP in 2007, Rollins has hit just .260 in 1,434 AB with 36 homers and 87 steals (only nine this year in 239 AB). Going forward, he is still a 15/30 candidate, but not the elite player he used to be. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers, 100 percent owned In 76 games, Furcal has hit .316 with eight HR, 18 SB, 57 R, and 39 RBI. All of those numbers look great except one. The 76 games. Furcal has missed 32 games this year and six in a row. If he was not such an injury risk, then he would be much higher on this list. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs, 82.5 percent owned Over the last 30 days, the rookie has hit .390 with 13 R, one HR, 11 RBI and four SB. Sure, the average is likely to come down, but Castro gives you a little bit of something in all five categories. TIER 3 Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 89.6 percent owned There are quite a few speed options still to come on this list, but Aybar (16 SB) is the best of the bunch because of his run production (62 so far this year) and an average that will not kill you (.276). Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, 91.9 percent owned Odds are Uribe is not available in your league, but if he is and you need power, then Uribe and his 15 home runs are just what the doctor ordered. Jeff Keppinger, Houston Astros, 40.8 percent owned As unexciting as Keppinger is, he is a guy who provides decent counting number production (45 R, 40 RBI), and his .290 average is here to stay because he walks more than he strikes out and has a very normal BABIP of .303. Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox, 89.8 percent owned As unexciting as Keppinger is, Scutaro is even less exciting. However, he has seven homers, a decent .275 average, and is third among SS’s with 65 runs. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, 79.2 percent owned Maybe Drew will eventually turn into the elite player many thought he would be, but for now, he is basically Jeff Keppinger with a little more power/speed and a poorer average due to a 19.9 strikeout percentage. Jerry Hairston, Jr., San Diego Padres, 15.2 percent owned Three homers, three steals, 17 runs, 14 RBI, and a .278 average over the last thirty days make Hairston a pretty decent option the rest of the way. Yunel Escobar, Toronto Blue Jays, 49.8 percent owned Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, 98 percent owned Here is what the two have done since they were traded for each other on July 14:  TIER 4 Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, 8.4 percent owned Desmond is a decent power/speed option with seven homers and twelve steals if you can handle the .260ish batting average. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays, 64.9 percent owned Bartlett has been a disappointment this year, but he does have five steals and a .282 average over the last thirty days, so maybe the guy who hit .320 and stole thirty last year is still in there somewhere. Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, 10.5 percent owned Pennington is extremely streaky, but if you need speed, he has 17 steals on the year and is likely available in your league. Omar Infante, Atlanta Braves, 40 percent owned The injury to Martin Prado has opened up some playing time for Infante. So far, he has taken advantage of the extra AB’s by hitting .388 over the last fifteen days. He does not provide much else, but ride the hot streak while it lasts if you are desperate for average. Just missed the cut: Asdrubal Cabrera (35.6 percent owned), Ryan Theriot (78.9 percent owned), Ronny Cedeno (1.4 percent owned), J.J. Hardy (32.3 percent owned) (Percentages taken from ESPN. Stats current through 08/08) Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who cannot list the amendments of the Bill of Rights. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL. Agree with the rankings? Leave a comment at the top or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Shortstop Rankings, 2nd half, MLB, Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, Jose Reyes, New York Mets, Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies, Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers, Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs, Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, Jeff Keppinger, Houston Astros, Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox, Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, Jerry Hairston, Jr., San Diego Padres, Yunel Escobar, Toronto Blue Jays, Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays, Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, Omar Infante, Atlanta Braves, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, J.J. Hardy Whether you spent a fourth round pick on an elite closer, or waited to piece together your closing committee, let’s take a look at how the relief pitchers will finish out the rest of the season. If you “mixed and matched” your relief corps this season hoping for saves here and there, it’s important to also mix in guys with high strikeout totals and low walk rates (as it is with most pitchers). In previous seasons, I've done just a "straight" ranking by position, as opposed to a "tiering" system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.  Mariano Rivera Tier-One Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees Heath Bell - San Diego Padres Jonathan Papelbon - Boston Red Sox These top relievers are the same pitchers season after season who continue to be worth every penny for owners who draft them early. Mo Rivera may pitch until he’s 100-years old, but is still the best in the game, and having Kerry Wood help deliver a lead to Mo in the ninth makes him even better. Although Heath Bell is involved in trade rumors every season, he continues to be the backbone of a strong bullpen in San Diego, as they push towards a division title. Don’t be freaked out by Jonathan Papelbon being placed on waivers earlier this week, as most players are during this time of the year. “Cinco Ocho” hasn’t posted the strikeout numbers we’ve all wanted in 2010, but he’s still racking up the save numbers and has been one of the top closers over the past four seasons. Tier-Two Jonathan Broxton - Los Angeles Dodgers Brian Wilson - San Francisco Giants Carlos Marmol - Chicago Cubs Joakim Soria - Kansas City Royals Billy Wagner - Atlanta Braves Jose Valverde - Detroit Tigers Neftali Feliz - Texas Rangers Rafeal Soriano - Tampa Bay Rays The tier-two guys contain a mixture of all reliable closers who have job security. Jonathan Broxton is certainly capable of cracking the tier-one group, but after posting a disastrous month of July, his value is down right now. Since the All Star break, Broxton has posted an ERA of 9.00 and has only struck out 4.5 batters per nine innings (K/9 ratio). The recent poor results make you wonder if the big guy is dealing with some type of injury. The Dodgers brought in Octavio Dotel during the trade deadline, but he won’t pose a threat to Broxton unless he goes down with an injury. Dotel was just brought in because of Dodgers’ manager Joe Torre’s love affair with ex-Yankee players. Brian Wilson dealt with some small back issues in the beginning of August, but appears to be fine and still remains an undervalued closer. The only bright spot with the Chicago Cubs this season is Marlon Byrd’s defense and the strikeouts from Carlos Marmol (16.8 K/9 this season!). Injuries were the concern with Billy Wagner this off-season for fantasy owners, but those who took a gamble on the left-hander during the late rounds have certainly been rewarded. Wagner and the rest of the Braves’ bullpen have lifted Atlanta into a division lead showing the Phillies that not everything revolves around offense. Rafael Soriano leads the American League in saves with 31 and is also posting a 0.89 WHIP this season. He doesn’t have high strikeout totals like the rest of this group (36 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings) but doesn’t walk many hitters and has only surrendered three home runs. Things just keep getting better for the Texas Rangers and Neftali Feliz this season. The lights-out fireballer has taken the closer’s role and ran with it, striking out everyone in his way. Feliz’s ERA at home is a high 5.06 this season (thanks to the Ballpark in Arlington) but on the road, Feliz has posted a 1.45 ERA and currently sits in third place in the American League with 29 saves.  Leo Nunez Tier-Three Francisco Rodriguez - New York Mets Leo Nunez - Florida Marlins Matt Capps - Minnesota Twins Huston Street - Colorado Rockies Andrew Bailey - Oakland Athletics The original “K-Rod” has bounced back nicely this season during his second year with the New York Mets. He’s posting better numbers across all categories this season, and could climb into the tier-two section during the final month of play. The fantasy value for Rodriguez has slipped over the past two seasons due to the inability of the Mets to produce save opportunities. With questions around Leo Nunez’s job security earlier this season, he’s proved that he’s the man down in Miami. Nunez has allowed just one home run and walked 11 batters over 44 1/3 innings this season. With 26 saves already in the books this year, Nunez has matched his career high in saves (26 with the Marlins in 2009). The Minnesota Twins felt that Jon Rauch was not capable of closing games this season and went out and acquired Matt Capps during the trade deadline. Capps has bounced back this season after an unlucky 2009 in Pittsburgh. Capps is an above-average reliever who posts low strikeout totals (7.4 K/9) and has spent time closing against subpar National League hitters to this point. The move to the American League will truly be a test for Capps, as the NL East doesn’t have Miguel Cabrera types. Huston Street and Andrew Bailey when healthy are reliable arms during the ninth inning, but both pitchers have struggled with the injury-bug this season. With not many reliable closing options on their teams, both will continue to see save opportunities. Tier-Four Brian Fuentes - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Ryan Franklin - St. Louis Cardinals Bobby Jenks - Chicago White Sox Francisco Cordero - Cincinnati Reds Brad Lidge - Philadelphia Phillies Matt Lindstrom - Houston Astros Brian Fuentes and the Angels are fading fast in the American League West standings. Fuentes will continue to close in the ninth, but doesn’t post “wow” numbers. He posted better numbers during the month of July (1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) but continues to have the tendency to give up too many walks and home runs. Prior to the 2010 season, I warned fantasy owners about Ryan Franklin. He uses the magical illusion of smoke and mirrors to deceive fantasy owners into thinking he is a top closer when in fact, he’s not. Franklin has a 25/6 K/BB rate over 42 2/3 innings and left-handed hitters have a stat line of .303/.333/.515 against him this season, making him avoidable. Manager Tony LaRussa is also known for riding the hot hand and playing the matchups, so if Franklin fades down the stretch, so could his save opportunities. Brad Lidge this season has been inconsistent, but the Phillies are really left with no other options during the ninth inning, so look for manager Charlie Manuel to stick with Lidge.  Chris Perez Tier-Five David Aardsma - Seattle Mariners Chris Perez - Cleveland Indians Kevin Gregg - Toronto Blue Jays John Axford - Milwaukee Brewers Joel Hanrahan - Pittsburgh Pirates Drew Storen - Washington Nationals Alfredo Simon - Baltimore Orioles Aaron Heilman - Arizona Diamondbacks David Aardsma - see above under Ryan Franklin. Aarsdma has blown four saves this season and has also walked 16 batters over 34 1/3 innings. With the chances of the Mariners actually having a lead during the ninth inning slim, Aardsma has little fantasy appeal. Chris Perez finally ends up where he belongs - pitching in the ninth and closing out games, but too bad it’s for the Cleveland Indians. With Kerry Wood leaving via a trade, Perez controls his own destiny and is a viable fantasy option for cheap saves the rest of the season. Prior to Trevor Hoffman imploding back in May, most knew little or nothing about John Axford. With little bullpen relief on the Brewers, Axford was given the job and hasn’t looked back since. Yes, Axford has the unknown factor surrounding his name, but with a sweet mustache and a 10.8 K/9 ratio this season, he’s a reliable bottom tier closer. With Octavio Dotel leaving for Los Angeles, Joel Hanrahan takes over the closer duties for the Bucs. It was a toss up for the ninth inning job between Hanrahan and All Star Evan Meek, but with Hanrahan owning more ninth inning experience, the Pirates will roll the dice with Joel. Hanrahan will have the same value as Dotel did when he was closing games for Pittsburgh, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be afraid to own either Meek or Hanrahan. The Drew Storen era is officially set to begin in Washington. The Nationals have stated that they will use a closer committee role the rest of the season with Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett, but Storen is your guy long term. Tyler Clippard posted horrible July numbers with a 7.90 ERA during 12 appearances. Clippard has already logged over 62 innings this season which is a career high for him, so fatigue could be playing a factor. Burnett, a former first round pick for the Pirates, is holding right-handed hitters to just a .174/.245/.209 stat line over 86 at-bats this season, while lefties are hitting .302/.371/.476 over 63 at-bats. Oh year, Burnett has a career 6.71 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP from the month of August until the end of the season. Take in this order: Storen, Clippard, and Burnett. Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter didn’t fool around with the bullpen during his fist game on Tuesday evening. Mike Gonzalez recorded the first two outs during the ninth before being replaced by Alfredo Simon, who recorded the final out for the save. With the Orioles having nothing to lose by trotting Simon out there, the whole closing situation in Baltimore is a toss-up. Gonzalez wants to pitch in the ninth inning badly and appears to have regained the velocity on his fastball which has been missing all season, so anything can happen. Be warned. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in shambles this season, and the bullpen isn’t exempt from the mess. In one of my earlier pieces, I wrote that Juan Gutierrez was the favorite to earn save opportunities for Arizona given the recent failures of Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman. With Qualls leaving for sunny Florida, D-backs’ manager Kirk Gibson was still reluctant to name a closer. With Gutierrez hitting the disabled-list with a right shoulder injury, it’s Heilman’s turn on the carousel. I also like rookie Sam Demel as a potential replacement for Gutierrez, as he’s posted 21/5 K/BB over 20 1/3 innings. - All statistical data provided via Baseball-Reference.com Reggie Yinger is the Senior Editor at Baseball Press and his writing has appeared in a men's national magazine publication. He also contributes exclusive writings to The Fantasy Fix. You can contact him at reggie@baseballpress.com or follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Closers, Relief Pitchers, Reggie Yinger From the perennial all-stars of Alex Rodriguez, David Wright and Evan Longoria to the surprise hammer of Jose Bautista… Third Base has always been stacked with big bats. Aramis Ramirez is finally back on track while Chipper Jones seems to be gearing up for getting out. Here are the rankings for the remainder of the season.  Tier One 1. David Wright, NYM (100% owned) The heart of the Mets, Wright is the definition of a MVP. Yes the Mets have some big names but Wright really has been carrying them all season. Solid numbers all around and as good a chance as anyone to hit the 30-30 mark this year. Wright will surpass Mets legend Mike Piazza this year for number two on the team's RBI list as well. Not bad for someone in only their sixth year. 2. Evan Longoria, TAM (100% owned) The minute Longoria stepped into the Bigs, he was a star. Nothing changed in the first half, nothing will change in the second half. Stolen bases this year, puts Longoria at the same level with Wright. 3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY (100% owned) If Derek Jeter is the brain of the Yankees, then A-Rod is the braun. A slight slowdown may occur while Alex is trying hit number 600 but as soon as they weight is alleviated it blue skies as far as the eye can see. Last year A-Rod hit over 50 points higher in the second half of play.  Tier Two 4. Kevin Youkilis, BOS (100% owned) Not a true 3B, but eligible nonetheless. On pace for his usual strong numbers and should be able to top 100 runs this season. 5. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (99% owned) Zim is on pace to pretty much duplicate every category as last year. The numbers are so similar, its eerie. Plus he's being paid $6.35 million this year. Anyone see where I'm going with this? Yes that's right - Ryan Zimmerman is... THE 6 MILLION DOLLAR MAN! I knew it! 6. Adrian Beltre, BOS (99% owned) Simply put, Beltre needed out of Seattle. Yes he had a few decent seasons there, but the expectations were never met after leaving LA. Only one other time in Beltre's 13-year career has he hit over .300 and that was his 2004 mega monster year. There hasn't been any signs of him slowing down, so expect a consistent second half. 7. Aramis Ramirez, CHC (97% owned) Patient Fantasy owners waited and finally have been rewarded. It was a strange first half for Ramirez but all looks to be on track. Since his return on June 25th, A-Ram has hit six homers, 16 RBIs, 16 Runs and bumped his average up 57 points. Aramis will be one of the top performers of the 2nd half. 8. Mark Reynolds, ARI (98% owned) Reynolds is as consistent as the wind. Huge power, zero finesse. You would think that in his 3rd season, Mark would be improving his average but instead its barely above the Mendoza line. One-third of Reynolds hits are dingers, so while he may be winning you home runs every week, he is single-handedly losing your BA column too. 9. Jose Bautista, TOR (95% owned) Hell if Reynolds is 2nd tier then so is Bautista. I barely make predictions, but at this point I think Jose will finish the year strong and then fade back into grey like the rest of his career. Enjoy it while it lasts folks!  Tier Three 10. Michael Young, TEX (99% owned) The model of consistency, Young became the Rangers all-time hits leader this year with 1,748. Split stats are virtually equal over his ten year career. A .300+ average is a guarantee for the second half. 11. Martin Prado, ATL (98% owned) Where did this kid come from? Numbers are slightly better than last year in a few less AB already. Can't wait to see where his end of season numbers finish. Only trails in Runs to Youk. You could say he's the main reason the Braves are on top. 12. Pablo Sandoval, SF (96% owned) He's not the Kung-Fu Panda on '09, but expect better 2nd half numbers at least. It's just a matter of time before Pablo joins the Giants hitting parade. 13. Casey McGehee, MIL (93% owned) In his second season (not counting 24 AB in 2008), we are seeing a slowdown, most likely due to a long season which McGehee is just not accustomed to yet. I believe Casey will get his second breath shortly and finish up the season where he started it... HOT! 14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN (96% owned) Following a monster 2009 season, Cuddyer has been solid this year. You can expect as least the same if not better for the remainder. Has a 14-game hitting streak right now.  Tier Four 15. Juan Uribe, SF (77% owned) Uribe carried the Giants before Aubrey Huff woke up and Buster Posey joined the team. 16. Jorge Cantu, TEX (86% owned) We'll have to see how this pans out in Texas with all the extra competition at first base. Mitch Moreland will supposedly get most of the right handed pitches with Cantu getting lefties. 17. Chone Figgins, SEA (87% owned) Seattle clearly hasn't inspired the speedster but at least he's racking up steals. Second half career numbers show he will have a better finish. 18. Ty Wigginton, BAL (71% owned) Things have slowed down since the beginning of June, but still a viable option. 19. Placido Polanco, STL (92% owned) Runs and average… not much more. 20. Chase Headley, SD (62% owned) Started off really strong, hit a huge slump. RBIs way too low for someone who's been batting clean-up. 21. Neil Walker, PIT (40% owned) Nice surprise for Pittsburgh. Excellent hitter. 22. Scott Rolen, CIN (88% owned) Rolen has been great so far, but its been a long time since Rolen finished with a solid full season. 23. Miguel Tejada, SD (74% owned) Not the All-Star we once loved, but should fit in nicely in San Diego. Should definitely have better numbers moving forward.  Tier Five 24. Chris Johnson, HOU (18% owned) 13-game hitting streak 15 R / 4 HR / 20 RBI in 126 AB. Keep an eye on this kid! 25. Gordon Beckham, CHW (86% owned) Hitting better as of late, but still hasn't blossomed. 26. Alberto Callaspo, LAA (68% owned) Decent first half. Just traded to Angels & has 3rd locked down. 27. Jose Lopez, SEA (68% owned) One of the biggest busts of the year. Injured hamstring now, no signs of coming around any time soon. 28. Pedro Alvarez, PIT (65% owned) Average is low, but this kid has big power. Two back-to-back home run games against Milwaukee last week. 29. Kevin Kouzmanoff, OAK (40% owned) Batting slightly above his career average and almost has as many runs already as all of 2009. 30. Ian Stewart, COL (84% owned) Piss-poor batting average but may be able to hit 25 homers for the second straight season. 31. Chipper Jones, ATL (65% owned) Only two years ago he batted .364. Now Chipper can barely bat .250. Tail end of his career. 32. Casey Blake, LAD (35% owned) Average player. Splits show he will have a slightly slower second half. Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Evan Marx exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Evan tried wearing a moustache today but decided he just wasn't cool enough. sigh... Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, 3B, Third Base, Post All-Star Break, 2nd half, Second Half, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Jose Bautista, Michael Young, Martin Prado, Pablo Sandoval, Casey McGehee, Michael Cuddyer, Juan Uribe, Jorge Cantu, Chone Figgins, Ty Wigginton, Placido Polanco, Chase Headley, Neil Walker, Scott Rolen, Miguel Tejada, Chris Johnson, Gordon Beckham, Alberto Callaspo, Jose Lopez, Pedro Alvarez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ian Stewart, Chipper Jones, Casey Blake, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers Carl Pavano, Jeff Niemann, Colby Lewis. According to ESPN’s Player Rater (PR), these three have been top 25 starting pitchers to date… and none of them were drafted in ESPN standard ten-team leagues. In fact, of the top 60 pitchers on the PR, 22 of them went undrafted. Think pitching is deep? Moreover, the guys at the top are truly elite. Of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, an astounding 17 of them have an ERA under 3.00. So, you may not be hurting for pitching, but there are still plenty of guys out there who remain undervalued for you to target either through trade or on the waiver wire. All ownership percentages are from ESPN. (stats as of Sunday, July 25, 2010)  Adam Wainright TIER 1 1. Adam Wainwright (100% owned) 2. Josh Johnson (100% owned) Each has a WHIP right around 1.00, and Johnson has a marginal five strikeout lead over Wainwright. The only differences between them are Johnson leads in ERA 1.61 to 2.02, and Wainwright has four more wins. Johnson is more likely to see his ERA regress towards 2.00 than he is to win more games than Wainwright the rest of the way. So, while wins are not the best way to evaluate pitchers, they still count in fantasy, and their value cannot be ignored. 3. Roy Halladay (100% owned) 4. Cliff Lee (100% owned) 5. Tim Lincecum (100% owned) 6. Jon Lester (100% owned) 7. Jered Weaver (100% owned) Weaver is striking out almost ten batters per nine while walking just over two batters per nine, and all of his peripheral numbers indicate that what he has been is what he is going to be. If you have a stud starter with a lot of name value (say, Justin Verlander or Johan Santana), do not hesitate to swap them straight up for Weaver. 8. Felix Hernandez (100% owned) 9. C.C. Sabathia (100% owned)  Zach Greinke TIER 2 10. Zach Greinke (100% owned) In his last 7 starts, Greinke is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 7.98 K/9. The “buy-low window” is probably closed by now as Greinke looks poised for a monster second-half. 11. Justin Verlander (100% owned) 12. Ubaldo Jimenez (100% owned) 13. Yovani Gallardo (100% owned) 14. David Price (100% owned) 15. Chris Carpenter (100% owned) 16. Clayton Kershaw (100% owned) 17. Dan Haren (100% owned) Haren has always been a notorious first-half stud and second-half bust, but this year he had a disappointing first half. This led many to wonder how much worse it would get once he hit the inevitable second-half decline. However, if he broke the trend in the first-half, why can he not do the same in the second-half? He is 3rd in the league with 141 K’s.  Matt Cain TIER 3 18. Matt Cain (100% owned) 19. Johan Santana (100% owned) 20. Roy Oswalt (100% owned) 21. Colby Lewis (98.5% owned) 22. Tommy Hanson (100% owned) With a record of 8-6, a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Hanson has not exactly given fantasy owners the return they were expecting on a top 80-ish draft pick. However, Hanson has pitched better than those numbers indicate. He is striking out almost a batter more per inning than he did last year at a clip of 9.03 K/9 , his walks are down, and his BABIP is .348 (the higher the number is over .300, the more unlucky the pitcher has been). If your league redrafted today, Hanson still might be worth a top 80 pick. 23. John Danks (100% owned) 24. Tim Hudson (100% owned) 25. Jeff Niemann (100% owned) 26. Stephen Strasburg (100% owned) 27. Mat Latos (100% owned) Both Strasburg and Latos are going to have their innings limited as we get deeper into the season, but if they were pitching through September, they would both be top 15 pitchers. Just keep running them out there every time they pitch, and then, use their roster slot to stream pitchers once they hit the shelf. By doing so, you can still get top 20 value out of that slot in your rotation. 28. Jaime Garcia (99.9% owned) Garcia was one of the most difficult guys to rank. You keep expecting the rookie pitcher with the unusually low HR/9 rate (0.41) and good but not great K/BB rate (2.09) to regress, but so far it just hasn’t happened. He is currently third in the majors with a 2.21 ERA and could absolutely continue to be a top 25-30 starting pitcher.  Francisco Liriano TIER 4 29. Francisco Liriano (100% owned) 30. Clay Buchholz (100% owned) 31. Matt Garza (100% owned) 32. Max Scherzer (84.1% owned) 33. Ricky Nolasco (97.9% owned) In 2009, Nolasco had a 5.76 ERA and 8.93 K/9 before the All-Star break. He rebounded nicely with a 4.39 ERA and 10.02 K/9 after the break. This year, he had a 4.55 ERA and 7.64 K/9 before the break, but in his two starts since the break, Nolasco has posted a 4.05 ERA and 10.99 K/9. See where this is going? 34. Jonathan Sanchez (99.4% owned) 35. Wandy Rodriguez (55.4% owned) 36. Cole Hamels (100% owned) 37. Ryan Dempster (100% owned) 38. Carl Pavano (93.1% owned) Pavano in 2010: 12-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (!), and 81 K’s to just 19 BB’s. Really?!?! As mentioned above, the undrafted Pavano is providing substantial value to his owners. In a 16-team league with 30 man rosters, I got Pavano with pick #433. Now that is value! The only reason he is not ranked higher is because, well, he is still Carl Pavano.  Gavin Floyd TIER 5 39. Gavin Floyd (90.4% owned) 40. Jason Hammel (26.2% owned) 41. Javier Vazquez (94.7% owned) 42. C.J. Wilson (72.3% owned) 43. Ervin Santana (88.9% owned) 44. Scott Baker (65.5% owned) Baker’s increased strikeout rate, decreased walk rate, high BABIP, and inflated FIP all indicate that he has pitched better than it looks on paper. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, shows how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how the defense played behind him. The nice thing about FIP is that it is based on the same scale as ERA. So, while his ERA is right at 5.00, Baker’s FIP is just over 4.00, and his xFIP (Expected FIP predicts future ERA by adjusting home run rates) is actually below 4.00. 45. Phil Hughes (100% owned) 46. Brett Myers (21.3% owned) 47. Chad Billingsley (95% owned) 48. Edinson Volquez (73.2% owned) 49. Kris Medlen (9.8% owned) 50. Tommy Hunter (67.4% owned) Both Medlen and Hunter are nice young pitchers with which to fill out the back end of your rotation. While Hunter’s ownership percentage is substantially higher, Medlen is the guy you would rather own. He has an impressive 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 92.1 innings, and nothing in his peripherals suggests that he has just been lucky. Meanwhile, Hunter is 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine starts, but he is striking out less than five batters per nine innings and is receiving 7.3 runs per game of support from his offense. Just missed the cut: Trevor Cahill (84.8% owned), Jason Vargas (20.8% owned), Shawn Marcum (66.3% owned), Barry Zito (88.2% owned), Ricky Romero (91.4% owned) Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, SP, Post All-Star Break, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, David Price, Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Jeff Niemann, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, Francisco Liriano, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Cole Hamels, Ryan Dempster, Carl Pavano, Gavin Floyd, Jason Hammel, Javier Vazquez, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Phil Hughes, Brett Myers, Chad Billingsley, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hunter, St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates Fantasy baseball sees changes in position depth every year. What starts the season as a weak position may finish as the best, and visa versa. Entering the season there were 11 Second basemen ranked in the Top 100 players in mixed formats. Currently, there are only 7 active players who will find their name on that Top 100 list, and only 3 of them were part of the original 11. Let’s take a look at the current rankings for Second Baseman after the first half of the 2010 season (Injuries Noted):  Robinson Cano Tier 1 Robinson Cano NYY (100% Owned) His numbers across the board are great for any position (66-18-63-.332) This is an MVP candidate who will continue to improve, and continue to provide consistent statistical production. Chase Utley PHI (100% Owned) Chase would be #1 if he wasn’t injured, even with Cano’s great season. Utley’s consistency over the past 7 seasons cannot be ignored, you can pen in 100-30-100-.295 ever year. +++ Upon his return should be considered the Top Player+++DL+++ Rickie Weeks MIL (100% Owned) Finally his production is matching his potential (65-19-62-.277) Rickie was the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 player draft, and after this season may be the 2nd overall Second Baseman taken in 2011 fantasy drafts. Dustin Pedroia BOS (100% Owned) Similar to Utley, Dustin would be 3rd on the list after putting up excellent numbers (52-12-41-.292) when healthy. He has never had a bad single season in his young career. Look for him to immediately bounce back when he returns. ++DL++ Tier 1A Ian Kinsler TEX: This All Star Second Baseman plays for a first place team with lots of lineup protection. Thus far (53-6-38-.304), and expected for a duplicate second half with the pennant in reach. Brandon Phillips CIN: Another player in the midst of a pennant race, and putting up potential career numbers (70-13-33-.288). With the Cardinals & Brewers battling the Reds for Central supremacy Brandon will need to play to his max if they want to win. Expect an extra effort.  Martin Prado Tier 2 Martin Prado ATL: All Star, First Place Team, NL Hits Leader (67-11-40-.317) Ben Zobrist TB: (49-5-44-19-.277) Multi Position Eligible, Continuous production. Tier 3 Dan Uggla FLA: (59-15-53-.271) May or May Not be traded to Contender. If so he jumps Zobrist. You have to love his power from this position. Kelly Johnson ARZ: (57-14-46-.275) Can he keep this up all season for the lowly Dbacks? My magic 8 ball says “Decidedly So” Howie Kendrick ANA: (42-7-53-.275) Still a potential injury risk, but his run production in 2010 is undeniable for a second baseman. Worth a Start in any format.  Gordon Beckham Tier 4 Gordon Beckham CWS: (26/71-14-3-12-0-.366) Over the Last Month…May be the HOTTEST 2B Placido Polanco PHI: (92/288-43-6-30-3-.319) Just back from injury and his timing is great already. Juan Uribe SF: (80/312-42-12-51-1-.256) Early Season Utility Super Star. Now Everyday Star. Tier 5 Jose Lopez SEA: Still Seattle’s Cleanup Hitter with TONS of potential 39 RBIs Casey McGehee MIL: 13 HR 55 RBIs Aaron Hill TOR: 13 HRs (Great Upside) Clint Barmes COL: 42 RBIs Ian Stewart COL: 13 HRs 47 RBIs Neil Walker PIT: (.320 BA) Chone Figgins SEA: 25 SBs Ty Wigginton BAL: 16 HR, 48 RBIs Alberto Callaspo LAA: (40Runs-8HRs-43RBIs) Written by The Fantasy Mechanic exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can catch him on Twitter @FantasyFix_FM Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Advice, MLB, Ranks, Second Base, Fantasy Mechanic, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, Martin Prado, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, Howie Kendrick, Gordon Beckham, Placido Polanco, Juan Uribe, Jose Lopez, Casey McGehee, Clint Barmes, Aaron Hill, Ian Stewart, Neil Walker, Chone Figgins, Ty Wiggington, Alberto Callaspo In previous seasons, I've done just a "straight" ranking by position as opposed to a "tiering" system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.  Miguel Cabrera Tier-One 1) Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals 2) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers 3) Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies 4) Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees Nothing new with these top tier guys, as any of these options will provide solid numbers during the second half of play. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and is still the king. Miguel Cabrera certainly is second to no one in fantasy baseball this year, as he’s posting a MVP/Triple Crown type of season. Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira had up-and-down numbers during the first half of play, but both know how to produce huge numbers after the All-Star break. As the temperature rises, so do the HR and RBI totals for both of these sluggers.  Adrian Gonzalez Tier-Two 5) Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds 6) Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers 7) Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox 8) Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres Again, can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Joey Votto is carrying the Reds offensively right now and has done so all season long, and he could easily be thrown into the Tier-One group. Prince Fielder will probably be staying in Milwaukee the rest of the season, but his numbers should still continue to be around the same mark with the power numbers taking a slight hit. The on-base percentage (OBP) machine that is Kevin Youkilis is putting together another solid season. Expect more of the same during the second half, as the runs scored, slugging (SLG), and OBP numbers will be near the top of the AL leader board. I’m sure every Adrian Gonzalez owner is hoping that the Padres acquire a power-bat before the trading deadline passes. Gonzalez currently sits in second place in the NL with 17 intentional-walks, but with pennant races hitting up, I fully expect teams to start treating Adrian like Barry Bonds (you know..the walks and all).  Billy Butler Tier-Three 9) Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins 10) Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals 11) Adam Dunn - Washington Nationals 12) Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox 13) Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays Justin Morneau has yet to play a game during the second half due to an injury (surprise!) and is a suspect the rest of the season for poor numbers. Morneau floats around a .300/.360/.550 with an on-base plus + slugging percentage (OPS) over .900 during the first half of play, but when the second half hits, his numbers take a huge hit, posting drops in all categories, especially the home run department. Hopefully, you were able to trade Morneau for a high return before the second half of play started. Billy Butler doesn’t have the HR power like most first baseman, but still flat out hits every month. With KC being what it is, Butler will likely be limited as far as his runs scored and the RBI department. The Nationals want to move Adam Dunn before the trade deadline, but the price is reportedly high, so I see him staying put and signing an extension in D.C. Dunn has always been known for the high home run totals, walks, and high strike out totals, but he is surprisingly hitting at an average above the .275 mark right now, which is something he simply isn’t known for. The highest average Dunn has ever hit during an entire season is .267 (2009 season). Another down factor for Dunn is his OBP number this season, as he’s been attacking the zone aggressively, seeing the lowest numbers of pitches per plate appearance during his ten-year career. Over the past two seasons, Dunn hasn’t hit over 15 home runs post All-Star break since the 2007 season.  Adam LaRoche Tier-Four 14) Adam LaRoche - Arizona Diamondbacks 15) Aubrey Huff - San Francisco Giants 16) James Loney - Los Angels Dodgers 17) Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs 18) Lance Berkman - Houston Astros I’ve had a serious man-crush on Adam LaRoche all season long. Everyone knows how he tears the second half of play up, but I think we will see his best second-half surge ever during the 2010 season. Aubrey Huff of the Giants is having his best season since 2008 and has already surpassed his home run totals from last season. Huff’s best month has yet to come, so watch out when the calendar hits August 1st. James Loney reminds me of Billy Butler because of their similar numbers, and the fact that he will not hit for a ton of power, but will still have the high AVG and OPS number. Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman have a lot in common this season, from poor production numbers to the inability to hit left-handed pitching. On the bright side, owners can expect some bounce back from both players. I especially like Lee moving forward, so see if you can grab him from someone for a cheap price. Closing out the season, Lee should hit around the .290 clip and will end with between 20-25 HR.  Ike Davis Tier-Five 19) Ike Davis - New York Mets 20) Gaby Sanchez - Florida Marlins 21) Russell Branyan - Seattle Mariners 22) Justin Smoak - Seattle Mariners 23) Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies 24) Troy Glaus - Atlanta Braves 25) Daric Barton - Oakland Athletics Most of the Tier-Five guys are part of the youth movement and will be moving up the ranks next season, as they are able to hit for solid power numbers and are reliable late round options for that corner infield position on your team. Like most of the Mets roster, Ike Davis is red-hot when playing in Citi Field (.298/.387/.496), but struggles on the road (.212/.272/.400). The good news is that he’s hitting .278 with a .329 OBP against left-handed pitching this season. Former University of Miami slugger Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific rookie season across all categories. He’s hit left-handed pitching extremely well to this point and hits both while at home and on the road. Justin Smoak has the power, but has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, which should be expected for a player of his age.  Written by Reggie Yinger exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for Baseball Press.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, MLB, Ranks, Reggie Yinger, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Barry Bonds, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Aubrey Huff, James Loney, Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Smoak, Russell Branyan, Todd Helton, Troy Glaus, Daric Barton  Miguel Olivo Tier 2 Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Chris Ianetta, John Jaso, Jonathan Lucroy, Jason Kendall, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, John Buck, Mike Napoli, Victor Martinez, Matt Wieters, Miguel Olivo, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Brett Talley | ArchivesOctober 2011 CategoriesAll Website Marketing NJ
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