Fantasy Sports Advice, Analysis and Projections | The Fantasy Fix
Carl Pavano, Jeff Niemann, Colby Lewis. According to ESPN’s Player Rater (PR), these three have been top 25 starting pitchers to date… and none of them were drafted in ESPN standard ten-team leagues. In fact, of the top 60 pitchers on the PR, 22 of them went undrafted. Think pitching is deep? Moreover, the guys at the top are truly elite. Of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, an astounding 17 of them have an ERA under 3.00. So, you may not be hurting for pitching, but there are still plenty of guys out there who remain undervalued for you to target either through trade or on the waiver wire. All ownership percentages are from ESPN. (stats as of Sunday, July 25, 2010)  Adam Wainright TIER 1 1. Adam Wainwright (100% owned) 2. Josh Johnson (100% owned) Each has a WHIP right around 1.00, and Johnson has a marginal five strikeout lead over Wainwright. The only differences between them are Johnson leads in ERA 1.61 to 2.02, and Wainwright has four more wins. Johnson is more likely to see his ERA regress towards 2.00 than he is to win more games than Wainwright the rest of the way. So, while wins are not the best way to evaluate pitchers, they still count in fantasy, and their value cannot be ignored. 3. Roy Halladay (100% owned) 4. Cliff Lee (100% owned) 5. Tim Lincecum (100% owned) 6. Jon Lester (100% owned) 7. Jered Weaver (100% owned) Weaver is striking out almost ten batters per nine while walking just over two batters per nine, and all of his peripheral numbers indicate that what he has been is what he is going to be. If you have a stud starter with a lot of name value (say, Justin Verlander or Johan Santana), do not hesitate to swap them straight up for Weaver. 8. Felix Hernandez (100% owned) 9. C.C. Sabathia (100% owned)  Zach Greinke TIER 2 10. Zach Greinke (100% owned) In his last 7 starts, Greinke is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 7.98 K/9. The “buy-low window” is probably closed by now as Greinke looks poised for a monster second-half. 11. Justin Verlander (100% owned) 12. Ubaldo Jimenez (100% owned) 13. Yovani Gallardo (100% owned) 14. David Price (100% owned) 15. Chris Carpenter (100% owned) 16. Clayton Kershaw (100% owned) 17. Dan Haren (100% owned) Haren has always been a notorious first-half stud and second-half bust, but this year he had a disappointing first half. This led many to wonder how much worse it would get once he hit the inevitable second-half decline. However, if he broke the trend in the first-half, why can he not do the same in the second-half? He is 3rd in the league with 141 K’s.  Matt Cain TIER 3 18. Matt Cain (100% owned) 19. Johan Santana (100% owned) 20. Roy Oswalt (100% owned) 21. Colby Lewis (98.5% owned) 22. Tommy Hanson (100% owned) With a record of 8-6, a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Hanson has not exactly given fantasy owners the return they were expecting on a top 80-ish draft pick. However, Hanson has pitched better than those numbers indicate. He is striking out almost a batter more per inning than he did last year at a clip of 9.03 K/9 , his walks are down, and his BABIP is .348 (the higher the number is over .300, the more unlucky the pitcher has been). If your league redrafted today, Hanson still might be worth a top 80 pick. 23. John Danks (100% owned) 24. Tim Hudson (100% owned) 25. Jeff Niemann (100% owned) 26. Stephen Strasburg (100% owned) 27. Mat Latos (100% owned) Both Strasburg and Latos are going to have their innings limited as we get deeper into the season, but if they were pitching through September, they would both be top 15 pitchers. Just keep running them out there every time they pitch, and then, use their roster slot to stream pitchers once they hit the shelf. By doing so, you can still get top 20 value out of that slot in your rotation. 28. Jaime Garcia (99.9% owned) Garcia was one of the most difficult guys to rank. You keep expecting the rookie pitcher with the unusually low HR/9 rate (0.41) and good but not great K/BB rate (2.09) to regress, but so far it just hasn’t happened. He is currently third in the majors with a 2.21 ERA and could absolutely continue to be a top 25-30 starting pitcher.  Francisco Liriano TIER 4 29. Francisco Liriano (100% owned) 30. Clay Buchholz (100% owned) 31. Matt Garza (100% owned) 32. Max Scherzer (84.1% owned) 33. Ricky Nolasco (97.9% owned) In 2009, Nolasco had a 5.76 ERA and 8.93 K/9 before the All-Star break. He rebounded nicely with a 4.39 ERA and 10.02 K/9 after the break. This year, he had a 4.55 ERA and 7.64 K/9 before the break, but in his two starts since the break, Nolasco has posted a 4.05 ERA and 10.99 K/9. See where this is going? 34. Jonathan Sanchez (99.4% owned) 35. Wandy Rodriguez (55.4% owned) 36. Cole Hamels (100% owned) 37. Ryan Dempster (100% owned) 38. Carl Pavano (93.1% owned) Pavano in 2010: 12-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (!), and 81 K’s to just 19 BB’s. Really?!?! As mentioned above, the undrafted Pavano is providing substantial value to his owners. In a 16-team league with 30 man rosters, I got Pavano with pick #433. Now that is value! The only reason he is not ranked higher is because, well, he is still Carl Pavano.  Gavin Floyd TIER 5 39. Gavin Floyd (90.4% owned) 40. Jason Hammel (26.2% owned) 41. Javier Vazquez (94.7% owned) 42. C.J. Wilson (72.3% owned) 43. Ervin Santana (88.9% owned) 44. Scott Baker (65.5% owned) Baker’s increased strikeout rate, decreased walk rate, high BABIP, and inflated FIP all indicate that he has pitched better than it looks on paper. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, shows how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how the defense played behind him. The nice thing about FIP is that it is based on the same scale as ERA. So, while his ERA is right at 5.00, Baker’s FIP is just over 4.00, and his xFIP (Expected FIP predicts future ERA by adjusting home run rates) is actually below 4.00. 45. Phil Hughes (100% owned) 46. Brett Myers (21.3% owned) 47. Chad Billingsley (95% owned) 48. Edinson Volquez (73.2% owned) 49. Kris Medlen (9.8% owned) 50. Tommy Hunter (67.4% owned) Both Medlen and Hunter are nice young pitchers with which to fill out the back end of your rotation. While Hunter’s ownership percentage is substantially higher, Medlen is the guy you would rather own. He has an impressive 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 92.1 innings, and nothing in his peripherals suggests that he has just been lucky. Meanwhile, Hunter is 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine starts, but he is striking out less than five batters per nine innings and is receiving 7.3 runs per game of support from his offense. Just missed the cut: Trevor Cahill (84.8% owned), Jason Vargas (20.8% owned), Shawn Marcum (66.3% owned), Barry Zito (88.2% owned), Ricky Romero (91.4% owned) Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, SP, Post All-Star Break, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, David Price, Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Jeff Niemann, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, Francisco Liriano, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Cole Hamels, Ryan Dempster, Carl Pavano, Gavin Floyd, Jason Hammel, Javier Vazquez, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Phil Hughes, Brett Myers, Chad Billingsley, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hunter, St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates Fantasy baseball sees changes in position depth every year. What starts the season as a weak position may finish as the best, and visa versa. Entering the season there were 11 Second basemen ranked in the Top 100 players in mixed formats. Currently, there are only 7 active players who will find their name on that Top 100 list, and only 3 of them were part of the original 11. Let’s take a look at the current rankings for Second Baseman after the first half of the 2010 season (Injuries Noted):  Robinson Cano Tier 1 Robinson Cano NYY (100% Owned) His numbers across the board are great for any position (66-18-63-.332) This is an MVP candidate who will continue to improve, and continue to provide consistent statistical production. Chase Utley PHI (100% Owned) Chase would be #1 if he wasn’t injured, even with Cano’s great season. Utley’s consistency over the past 7 seasons cannot be ignored, you can pen in 100-30-100-.295 ever year. +++ Upon his return should be considered the Top Player+++DL+++ Rickie Weeks MIL (100% Owned) Finally his production is matching his potential (65-19-62-.277) Rickie was the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 player draft, and after this season may be the 2nd overall Second Baseman taken in 2011 fantasy drafts. Dustin Pedroia BOS (100% Owned) Similar to Utley, Dustin would be 3rd on the list after putting up excellent numbers (52-12-41-.292) when healthy. He has never had a bad single season in his young career. Look for him to immediately bounce back when he returns. ++DL++ Tier 1A Ian Kinsler TEX: This All Star Second Baseman plays for a first place team with lots of lineup protection. Thus far (53-6-38-.304), and expected for a duplicate second half with the pennant in reach. Brandon Phillips CIN: Another player in the midst of a pennant race, and putting up potential career numbers (70-13-33-.288). With the Cardinals & Brewers battling the Reds for Central supremacy Brandon will need to play to his max if they want to win. Expect an extra effort.  Martin Prado Tier 2 Martin Prado ATL: All Star, First Place Team, NL Hits Leader (67-11-40-.317) Ben Zobrist TB: (49-5-44-19-.277) Multi Position Eligible, Continuous production. Tier 3 Dan Uggla FLA: (59-15-53-.271) May or May Not be traded to Contender. If so he jumps Zobrist. You have to love his power from this position. Kelly Johnson ARZ: (57-14-46-.275) Can he keep this up all season for the lowly Dbacks? My magic 8 ball says “Decidedly So” Howie Kendrick ANA: (42-7-53-.275) Still a potential injury risk, but his run production in 2010 is undeniable for a second baseman. Worth a Start in any format.  Gordon Beckham Tier 4 Gordon Beckham CWS: (26/71-14-3-12-0-.366) Over the Last Month…May be the HOTTEST 2B Placido Polanco PHI: (92/288-43-6-30-3-.319) Just back from injury and his timing is great already. Juan Uribe SF: (80/312-42-12-51-1-.256) Early Season Utility Super Star. Now Everyday Star. Tier 5 Jose Lopez SEA: Still Seattle’s Cleanup Hitter with TONS of potential 39 RBIs Casey McGehee MIL: 13 HR 55 RBIs Aaron Hill TOR: 13 HRs (Great Upside) Clint Barmes COL: 42 RBIs Ian Stewart COL: 13 HRs 47 RBIs Neil Walker PIT: (.320 BA) Chone Figgins SEA: 25 SBs Ty Wigginton BAL: 16 HR, 48 RBIs Alberto Callaspo LAA: (40Runs-8HRs-43RBIs) Written by The Fantasy Mechanic exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can catch him on Twitter @FantasyFix_FM Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Advice, MLB, Ranks, Second Base, Fantasy Mechanic, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, Martin Prado, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, Howie Kendrick, Gordon Beckham, Placido Polanco, Juan Uribe, Jose Lopez, Casey McGehee, Clint Barmes, Aaron Hill, Ian Stewart, Neil Walker, Chone Figgins, Ty Wiggington, Alberto Callaspo In previous seasons, I've done just a "straight" ranking by position as opposed to a "tiering" system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.  Miguel Cabrera Tier-One 1) Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals 2) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers 3) Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies 4) Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees Nothing new with these top tier guys, as any of these options will provide solid numbers during the second half of play. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and is still the king. Miguel Cabrera certainly is second to no one in fantasy baseball this year, as he’s posting a MVP/Triple Crown type of season. Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira had up-and-down numbers during the first half of play, but both know how to produce huge numbers after the All-Star break. As the temperature rises, so do the HR and RBI totals for both of these sluggers.  Adrian Gonzalez Tier-Two 5) Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds 6) Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers 7) Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox 8) Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres Again, can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Joey Votto is carrying the Reds offensively right now and has done so all season long, and he could easily be thrown into the Tier-One group. Prince Fielder will probably be staying in Milwaukee the rest of the season, but his numbers should still continue to be around the same mark with the power numbers taking a slight hit. The on-base percentage (OBP) machine that is Kevin Youkilis is putting together another solid season. Expect more of the same during the second half, as the runs scored, slugging (SLG), and OBP numbers will be near the top of the AL leader board. I’m sure every Adrian Gonzalez owner is hoping that the Padres acquire a power-bat before the trading deadline passes. Gonzalez currently sits in second place in the NL with 17 intentional-walks, but with pennant races hitting up, I fully expect teams to start treating Adrian like Barry Bonds (you know..the walks and all).  Billy Butler Tier-Three 9) Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins 10) Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals 11) Adam Dunn - Washington Nationals 12) Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox 13) Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays Justin Morneau has yet to play a game during the second half due to an injury (surprise!) and is a suspect the rest of the season for poor numbers. Morneau floats around a .300/.360/.550 with an on-base plus + slugging percentage (OPS) over .900 during the first half of play, but when the second half hits, his numbers take a huge hit, posting drops in all categories, especially the home run department. Hopefully, you were able to trade Morneau for a high return before the second half of play started. Billy Butler doesn’t have the HR power like most first baseman, but still flat out hits every month. With KC being what it is, Butler will likely be limited as far as his runs scored and the RBI department. The Nationals want to move Adam Dunn before the trade deadline, but the price is reportedly high, so I see him staying put and signing an extension in D.C. Dunn has always been known for the high home run totals, walks, and high strike out totals, but he is surprisingly hitting at an average above the .275 mark right now, which is something he simply isn’t known for. The highest average Dunn has ever hit during an entire season is .267 (2009 season). Another down factor for Dunn is his OBP number this season, as he’s been attacking the zone aggressively, seeing the lowest numbers of pitches per plate appearance during his ten-year career. Over the past two seasons, Dunn hasn’t hit over 15 home runs post All-Star break since the 2007 season.  Adam LaRoche Tier-Four 14) Adam LaRoche - Arizona Diamondbacks 15) Aubrey Huff - San Francisco Giants 16) James Loney - Los Angels Dodgers 17) Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs 18) Lance Berkman - Houston Astros I’ve had a serious man-crush on Adam LaRoche all season long. Everyone knows how he tears the second half of play up, but I think we will see his best second-half surge ever during the 2010 season. Aubrey Huff of the Giants is having his best season since 2008 and has already surpassed his home run totals from last season. Huff’s best month has yet to come, so watch out when the calendar hits August 1st. James Loney reminds me of Billy Butler because of their similar numbers, and the fact that he will not hit for a ton of power, but will still have the high AVG and OPS number. Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman have a lot in common this season, from poor production numbers to the inability to hit left-handed pitching. On the bright side, owners can expect some bounce back from both players. I especially like Lee moving forward, so see if you can grab him from someone for a cheap price. Closing out the season, Lee should hit around the .290 clip and will end with between 20-25 HR.  Ike Davis Tier-Five 19) Ike Davis - New York Mets 20) Gaby Sanchez - Florida Marlins 21) Russell Branyan - Seattle Mariners 22) Justin Smoak - Seattle Mariners 23) Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies 24) Troy Glaus - Atlanta Braves 25) Daric Barton - Oakland Athletics Most of the Tier-Five guys are part of the youth movement and will be moving up the ranks next season, as they are able to hit for solid power numbers and are reliable late round options for that corner infield position on your team. Like most of the Mets roster, Ike Davis is red-hot when playing in Citi Field (.298/.387/.496), but struggles on the road (.212/.272/.400). The good news is that he’s hitting .278 with a .329 OBP against left-handed pitching this season. Former University of Miami slugger Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific rookie season across all categories. He’s hit left-handed pitching extremely well to this point and hits both while at home and on the road. Justin Smoak has the power, but has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, which should be expected for a player of his age.  Written by Reggie Yinger exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for Baseball Press.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, MLB, Ranks, Reggie Yinger, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Barry Bonds, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Aubrey Huff, James Loney, Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Smoak, Russell Branyan, Todd Helton, Troy Glaus, Daric Barton  Miguel Olivo Tier 2 Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Chris Ianetta, John Jaso, Jonathan Lucroy, Jason Kendall, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, John Buck, Mike Napoli, Victor Martinez, Matt Wieters, Miguel Olivo, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Brett Talley | ArchivesCategoriesAll Website Marketing NJ
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