Fantasy Sports Advice, Analysis and Projections | The Fantasy Fix
 Shortstop is a top heavy position in fantasy baseball. After five or six elite guys and three to four more decent options, the bottom falls out fast. Those playing in the popular ten-team mixed leagues might not have too much trouble filling their SS spot, but those in deeper leagues will most likely be scrambling for production. At this point in the roto season, the best thing you can do is to see which categories you can still pick up points, and use your SS spot to go after those category-specific needs.
TIER 1 Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 100 percent owned There is a lot of talk going around about Hanley’s “down” year. Sure, he had all of one extra base hit in July, and his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is significantly lower than it has been in previous years, but ESPN’s player rater shows he has been the best shortstop to this point. His current BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is 44 points lower than his career average, and he is striking out less while walking more. He is going to be fine. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, 100 percent owned The only thing to worry about with Tulo is him missing more time due to injury, because he has been fantastic when in the lineup. The numbers he has put up in 2010 would look like this scaled out to a full 162 game season: .315, 23 HR, 16 SB, 114 RBI, 98 R. Jose Reyes, New York Mets, 100 percent owned The majority of Reyes’s fantasy value is in his ability to steal bases. As we all know, you have to get on base to steal bases. Unfortunately, Reyes currently has his lowest OBP since his rookie year primarily because he is swinging at more balls outside of the strike zone and walking less. As a result, his SB/AB percent is .052, which is significantly lower than his previous career low of .081 in 2008. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 100 percent owned Take away Alexei’s awful month of April (.221, 1 HR, 1 SB, 13 K, 1 BB), and the South Side shortstop has a line of .293, 10 HR, 7 SB, 48 R, and 35 RBI. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, 100 percent owned Andrus has plenty of value because he leads all shortstops in steals with 27 and is second in runs with 67. However, his groundball rate is up and his fly ball rate is down, which has led to 100 singles (out of 115 hits), zero homers, and an embarrassingly low slugging percentage of .316. TIER 2 Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 100 percent owned Some might argue that Jeter’s lower-than-usual batting average is a result of his BABIP being 45 points lower than his career average. However, if you read the Fix’s latest sabermetrics article BABIP For Dummies, you know that a hitter can influence his BABIP by legging out infield singles and shooting the gaps between defenders. Unfortunately for Jeter, he may be slowing down with age, and he is not driving the ball like he used to because, according to Fangraphs, his line drive rate is down almost three percent from his career average. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies, 100 percent owned Since winning the NL MVP in 2007, Rollins has hit just .260 in 1,434 AB with 36 homers and 87 steals (only nine this year in 239 AB). Going forward, he is still a 15/30 candidate, but not the elite player he used to be. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers, 100 percent owned In 76 games, Furcal has hit .316 with eight HR, 18 SB, 57 R, and 39 RBI. All of those numbers look great except one. The 76 games. Furcal has missed 32 games this year and six in a row. If he was not such an injury risk, then he would be much higher on this list. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs, 82.5 percent owned Over the last 30 days, the rookie has hit .390 with 13 R, one HR, 11 RBI and four SB. Sure, the average is likely to come down, but Castro gives you a little bit of something in all five categories. TIER 3 Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 89.6 percent owned There are quite a few speed options still to come on this list, but Aybar (16 SB) is the best of the bunch because of his run production (62 so far this year) and an average that will not kill you (.276). Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, 91.9 percent owned Odds are Uribe is not available in your league, but if he is and you need power, then Uribe and his 15 home runs are just what the doctor ordered. Jeff Keppinger, Houston Astros, 40.8 percent owned As unexciting as Keppinger is, he is a guy who provides decent counting number production (45 R, 40 RBI), and his .290 average is here to stay because he walks more than he strikes out and has a very normal BABIP of .303. Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox, 89.8 percent owned As unexciting as Keppinger is, Scutaro is even less exciting. However, he has seven homers, a decent .275 average, and is third among SS’s with 65 runs. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, 79.2 percent owned Maybe Drew will eventually turn into the elite player many thought he would be, but for now, he is basically Jeff Keppinger with a little more power/speed and a poorer average due to a 19.9 strikeout percentage. Jerry Hairston, Jr., San Diego Padres, 15.2 percent owned Three homers, three steals, 17 runs, 14 RBI, and a .278 average over the last thirty days make Hairston a pretty decent option the rest of the way. Yunel Escobar, Toronto Blue Jays, 49.8 percent owned Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, 98 percent owned Here is what the two have done since they were traded for each other on July 14:  TIER 4 Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, 8.4 percent owned Desmond is a decent power/speed option with seven homers and twelve steals if you can handle the .260ish batting average. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays, 64.9 percent owned Bartlett has been a disappointment this year, but he does have five steals and a .282 average over the last thirty days, so maybe the guy who hit .320 and stole thirty last year is still in there somewhere. Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, 10.5 percent owned Pennington is extremely streaky, but if you need speed, he has 17 steals on the year and is likely available in your league. Omar Infante, Atlanta Braves, 40 percent owned The injury to Martin Prado has opened up some playing time for Infante. So far, he has taken advantage of the extra AB’s by hitting .388 over the last fifteen days. He does not provide much else, but ride the hot streak while it lasts if you are desperate for average. Just missed the cut: Asdrubal Cabrera (35.6 percent owned), Ryan Theriot (78.9 percent owned), Ronny Cedeno (1.4 percent owned), J.J. Hardy (32.3 percent owned) (Percentages taken from ESPN. Stats current through 08/08) Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student who cannot list the amendments of the Bill of Rights. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL. Agree with the rankings? Leave a comment at the top or hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Shortstop Rankings, 2nd half, MLB, Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, Jose Reyes, New York Mets, Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies, Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers, Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs, Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, Jeff Keppinger, Houston Astros, Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox, Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, Jerry Hairston, Jr., San Diego Padres, Yunel Escobar, Toronto Blue Jays, Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays, Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, Omar Infante, Atlanta Braves, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, J.J. Hardy Carl Pavano, Jeff Niemann, Colby Lewis. According to ESPN’s Player Rater (PR), these three have been top 25 starting pitchers to date… and none of them were drafted in ESPN standard ten-team leagues. In fact, of the top 60 pitchers on the PR, 22 of them went undrafted. Think pitching is deep? Moreover, the guys at the top are truly elite. Of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, an astounding 17 of them have an ERA under 3.00. So, you may not be hurting for pitching, but there are still plenty of guys out there who remain undervalued for you to target either through trade or on the waiver wire. All ownership percentages are from ESPN. (stats as of Sunday, July 25, 2010)  Adam Wainright TIER 1 1. Adam Wainwright (100% owned) 2. Josh Johnson (100% owned) Each has a WHIP right around 1.00, and Johnson has a marginal five strikeout lead over Wainwright. The only differences between them are Johnson leads in ERA 1.61 to 2.02, and Wainwright has four more wins. Johnson is more likely to see his ERA regress towards 2.00 than he is to win more games than Wainwright the rest of the way. So, while wins are not the best way to evaluate pitchers, they still count in fantasy, and their value cannot be ignored. 3. Roy Halladay (100% owned) 4. Cliff Lee (100% owned) 5. Tim Lincecum (100% owned) 6. Jon Lester (100% owned) 7. Jered Weaver (100% owned) Weaver is striking out almost ten batters per nine while walking just over two batters per nine, and all of his peripheral numbers indicate that what he has been is what he is going to be. If you have a stud starter with a lot of name value (say, Justin Verlander or Johan Santana), do not hesitate to swap them straight up for Weaver. 8. Felix Hernandez (100% owned) 9. C.C. Sabathia (100% owned)  Zach Greinke TIER 2 10. Zach Greinke (100% owned) In his last 7 starts, Greinke is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 7.98 K/9. The “buy-low window” is probably closed by now as Greinke looks poised for a monster second-half. 11. Justin Verlander (100% owned) 12. Ubaldo Jimenez (100% owned) 13. Yovani Gallardo (100% owned) 14. David Price (100% owned) 15. Chris Carpenter (100% owned) 16. Clayton Kershaw (100% owned) 17. Dan Haren (100% owned) Haren has always been a notorious first-half stud and second-half bust, but this year he had a disappointing first half. This led many to wonder how much worse it would get once he hit the inevitable second-half decline. However, if he broke the trend in the first-half, why can he not do the same in the second-half? He is 3rd in the league with 141 K’s.  Matt Cain TIER 3 18. Matt Cain (100% owned) 19. Johan Santana (100% owned) 20. Roy Oswalt (100% owned) 21. Colby Lewis (98.5% owned) 22. Tommy Hanson (100% owned) With a record of 8-6, a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Hanson has not exactly given fantasy owners the return they were expecting on a top 80-ish draft pick. However, Hanson has pitched better than those numbers indicate. He is striking out almost a batter more per inning than he did last year at a clip of 9.03 K/9 , his walks are down, and his BABIP is .348 (the higher the number is over .300, the more unlucky the pitcher has been). If your league redrafted today, Hanson still might be worth a top 80 pick. 23. John Danks (100% owned) 24. Tim Hudson (100% owned) 25. Jeff Niemann (100% owned) 26. Stephen Strasburg (100% owned) 27. Mat Latos (100% owned) Both Strasburg and Latos are going to have their innings limited as we get deeper into the season, but if they were pitching through September, they would both be top 15 pitchers. Just keep running them out there every time they pitch, and then, use their roster slot to stream pitchers once they hit the shelf. By doing so, you can still get top 20 value out of that slot in your rotation. 28. Jaime Garcia (99.9% owned) Garcia was one of the most difficult guys to rank. You keep expecting the rookie pitcher with the unusually low HR/9 rate (0.41) and good but not great K/BB rate (2.09) to regress, but so far it just hasn’t happened. He is currently third in the majors with a 2.21 ERA and could absolutely continue to be a top 25-30 starting pitcher.  Francisco Liriano TIER 4 29. Francisco Liriano (100% owned) 30. Clay Buchholz (100% owned) 31. Matt Garza (100% owned) 32. Max Scherzer (84.1% owned) 33. Ricky Nolasco (97.9% owned) In 2009, Nolasco had a 5.76 ERA and 8.93 K/9 before the All-Star break. He rebounded nicely with a 4.39 ERA and 10.02 K/9 after the break. This year, he had a 4.55 ERA and 7.64 K/9 before the break, but in his two starts since the break, Nolasco has posted a 4.05 ERA and 10.99 K/9. See where this is going? 34. Jonathan Sanchez (99.4% owned) 35. Wandy Rodriguez (55.4% owned) 36. Cole Hamels (100% owned) 37. Ryan Dempster (100% owned) 38. Carl Pavano (93.1% owned) Pavano in 2010: 12-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (!), and 81 K’s to just 19 BB’s. Really?!?! As mentioned above, the undrafted Pavano is providing substantial value to his owners. In a 16-team league with 30 man rosters, I got Pavano with pick #433. Now that is value! The only reason he is not ranked higher is because, well, he is still Carl Pavano.  Gavin Floyd TIER 5 39. Gavin Floyd (90.4% owned) 40. Jason Hammel (26.2% owned) 41. Javier Vazquez (94.7% owned) 42. C.J. Wilson (72.3% owned) 43. Ervin Santana (88.9% owned) 44. Scott Baker (65.5% owned) Baker’s increased strikeout rate, decreased walk rate, high BABIP, and inflated FIP all indicate that he has pitched better than it looks on paper. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, shows how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how the defense played behind him. The nice thing about FIP is that it is based on the same scale as ERA. So, while his ERA is right at 5.00, Baker’s FIP is just over 4.00, and his xFIP (Expected FIP predicts future ERA by adjusting home run rates) is actually below 4.00. 45. Phil Hughes (100% owned) 46. Brett Myers (21.3% owned) 47. Chad Billingsley (95% owned) 48. Edinson Volquez (73.2% owned) 49. Kris Medlen (9.8% owned) 50. Tommy Hunter (67.4% owned) Both Medlen and Hunter are nice young pitchers with which to fill out the back end of your rotation. While Hunter’s ownership percentage is substantially higher, Medlen is the guy you would rather own. He has an impressive 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 92.1 innings, and nothing in his peripherals suggests that he has just been lucky. Meanwhile, Hunter is 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine starts, but he is striking out less than five batters per nine innings and is receiving 7.3 runs per game of support from his offense. Just missed the cut: Trevor Cahill (84.8% owned), Jason Vargas (20.8% owned), Shawn Marcum (66.3% owned), Barry Zito (88.2% owned), Ricky Romero (91.4% owned) Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Ranks, SP, Post All-Star Break, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, David Price, Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Jeff Niemann, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, Francisco Liriano, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Cole Hamels, Ryan Dempster, Carl Pavano, Gavin Floyd, Jason Hammel, Javier Vazquez, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Phil Hughes, Brett Myers, Chad Billingsley, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hunter, St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates  Miguel Olivo Tier 2 Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, Chris Ianetta, John Jaso, Jonathan Lucroy, Jason Kendall, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, John Buck, Mike Napoli, Victor Martinez, Matt Wieters, Miguel Olivo, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Brett Talley | ArchivesCategoriesAll Website Marketing NJ
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