2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
Whether you spent a fourth round pick on an elite closer, or waited to piece together your closing committee, let’s take a look at how the relief pitchers will finish out the rest of the season. If you “mixed and matched” your relief corps this season hoping for saves here and there, it’s important to also mix in guys with high strikeout totals and low walk rates (as it is with most pitchers). In previous seasons, I've done just a "straight" ranking by position, as opposed to a "tiering" system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.  Mariano Rivera Tier-One Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees Heath Bell - San Diego Padres Jonathan Papelbon - Boston Red Sox These top relievers are the same pitchers season after season who continue to be worth every penny for owners who draft them early. Mo Rivera may pitch until he’s 100-years old, but is still the best in the game, and having Kerry Wood help deliver a lead to Mo in the ninth makes him even better. Although Heath Bell is involved in trade rumors every season, he continues to be the backbone of a strong bullpen in San Diego, as they push towards a division title. Don’t be freaked out by Jonathan Papelbon being placed on waivers earlier this week, as most players are during this time of the year. “Cinco Ocho” hasn’t posted the strikeout numbers we’ve all wanted in 2010, but he’s still racking up the save numbers and has been one of the top closers over the past four seasons. Tier-Two Jonathan Broxton - Los Angeles Dodgers Brian Wilson - San Francisco Giants Carlos Marmol - Chicago Cubs Joakim Soria - Kansas City Royals Billy Wagner - Atlanta Braves Jose Valverde - Detroit Tigers Neftali Feliz - Texas Rangers Rafeal Soriano - Tampa Bay Rays The tier-two guys contain a mixture of all reliable closers who have job security. Jonathan Broxton is certainly capable of cracking the tier-one group, but after posting a disastrous month of July, his value is down right now. Since the All Star break, Broxton has posted an ERA of 9.00 and has only struck out 4.5 batters per nine innings (K/9 ratio). The recent poor results make you wonder if the big guy is dealing with some type of injury. The Dodgers brought in Octavio Dotel during the trade deadline, but he won’t pose a threat to Broxton unless he goes down with an injury. Dotel was just brought in because of Dodgers’ manager Joe Torre’s love affair with ex-Yankee players. Brian Wilson dealt with some small back issues in the beginning of August, but appears to be fine and still remains an undervalued closer. The only bright spot with the Chicago Cubs this season is Marlon Byrd’s defense and the strikeouts from Carlos Marmol (16.8 K/9 this season!). Injuries were the concern with Billy Wagner this off-season for fantasy owners, but those who took a gamble on the left-hander during the late rounds have certainly been rewarded. Wagner and the rest of the Braves’ bullpen have lifted Atlanta into a division lead showing the Phillies that not everything revolves around offense. Rafael Soriano leads the American League in saves with 31 and is also posting a 0.89 WHIP this season. He doesn’t have high strikeout totals like the rest of this group (36 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings) but doesn’t walk many hitters and has only surrendered three home runs. Things just keep getting better for the Texas Rangers and Neftali Feliz this season. The lights-out fireballer has taken the closer’s role and ran with it, striking out everyone in his way. Feliz’s ERA at home is a high 5.06 this season (thanks to the Ballpark in Arlington) but on the road, Feliz has posted a 1.45 ERA and currently sits in third place in the American League with 29 saves.  Leo Nunez Tier-Three Francisco Rodriguez - New York Mets Leo Nunez - Florida Marlins Matt Capps - Minnesota Twins Huston Street - Colorado Rockies Andrew Bailey - Oakland Athletics The original “K-Rod” has bounced back nicely this season during his second year with the New York Mets. He’s posting better numbers across all categories this season, and could climb into the tier-two section during the final month of play. The fantasy value for Rodriguez has slipped over the past two seasons due to the inability of the Mets to produce save opportunities. With questions around Leo Nunez’s job security earlier this season, he’s proved that he’s the man down in Miami. Nunez has allowed just one home run and walked 11 batters over 44 1/3 innings this season. With 26 saves already in the books this year, Nunez has matched his career high in saves (26 with the Marlins in 2009). The Minnesota Twins felt that Jon Rauch was not capable of closing games this season and went out and acquired Matt Capps during the trade deadline. Capps has bounced back this season after an unlucky 2009 in Pittsburgh. Capps is an above-average reliever who posts low strikeout totals (7.4 K/9) and has spent time closing against subpar National League hitters to this point. The move to the American League will truly be a test for Capps, as the NL East doesn’t have Miguel Cabrera types. Huston Street and Andrew Bailey when healthy are reliable arms during the ninth inning, but both pitchers have struggled with the injury-bug this season. With not many reliable closing options on their teams, both will continue to see save opportunities. Tier-Four Brian Fuentes - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Ryan Franklin - St. Louis Cardinals Bobby Jenks - Chicago White Sox Francisco Cordero - Cincinnati Reds Brad Lidge - Philadelphia Phillies Matt Lindstrom - Houston Astros Brian Fuentes and the Angels are fading fast in the American League West standings. Fuentes will continue to close in the ninth, but doesn’t post “wow” numbers. He posted better numbers during the month of July (1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) but continues to have the tendency to give up too many walks and home runs. Prior to the 2010 season, I warned fantasy owners about Ryan Franklin. He uses the magical illusion of smoke and mirrors to deceive fantasy owners into thinking he is a top closer when in fact, he’s not. Franklin has a 25/6 K/BB rate over 42 2/3 innings and left-handed hitters have a stat line of .303/.333/.515 against him this season, making him avoidable. Manager Tony LaRussa is also known for riding the hot hand and playing the matchups, so if Franklin fades down the stretch, so could his save opportunities. Brad Lidge this season has been inconsistent, but the Phillies are really left with no other options during the ninth inning, so look for manager Charlie Manuel to stick with Lidge.  Chris Perez Tier-Five David Aardsma - Seattle Mariners Chris Perez - Cleveland Indians Kevin Gregg - Toronto Blue Jays John Axford - Milwaukee Brewers Joel Hanrahan - Pittsburgh Pirates Drew Storen - Washington Nationals Alfredo Simon - Baltimore Orioles Aaron Heilman - Arizona Diamondbacks David Aardsma - see above under Ryan Franklin. Aarsdma has blown four saves this season and has also walked 16 batters over 34 1/3 innings. With the chances of the Mariners actually having a lead during the ninth inning slim, Aardsma has little fantasy appeal. Chris Perez finally ends up where he belongs - pitching in the ninth and closing out games, but too bad it’s for the Cleveland Indians. With Kerry Wood leaving via a trade, Perez controls his own destiny and is a viable fantasy option for cheap saves the rest of the season. Prior to Trevor Hoffman imploding back in May, most knew little or nothing about John Axford. With little bullpen relief on the Brewers, Axford was given the job and hasn’t looked back since. Yes, Axford has the unknown factor surrounding his name, but with a sweet mustache and a 10.8 K/9 ratio this season, he’s a reliable bottom tier closer. With Octavio Dotel leaving for Los Angeles, Joel Hanrahan takes over the closer duties for the Bucs. It was a toss up for the ninth inning job between Hanrahan and All Star Evan Meek, but with Hanrahan owning more ninth inning experience, the Pirates will roll the dice with Joel. Hanrahan will have the same value as Dotel did when he was closing games for Pittsburgh, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be afraid to own either Meek or Hanrahan. The Drew Storen era is officially set to begin in Washington. The Nationals have stated that they will use a closer committee role the rest of the season with Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett, but Storen is your guy long term. Tyler Clippard posted horrible July numbers with a 7.90 ERA during 12 appearances. Clippard has already logged over 62 innings this season which is a career high for him, so fatigue could be playing a factor. Burnett, a former first round pick for the Pirates, is holding right-handed hitters to just a .174/.245/.209 stat line over 86 at-bats this season, while lefties are hitting .302/.371/.476 over 63 at-bats. Oh year, Burnett has a career 6.71 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP from the month of August until the end of the season. Take in this order: Storen, Clippard, and Burnett. Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter didn’t fool around with the bullpen during his fist game on Tuesday evening. Mike Gonzalez recorded the first two outs during the ninth before being replaced by Alfredo Simon, who recorded the final out for the save. With the Orioles having nothing to lose by trotting Simon out there, the whole closing situation in Baltimore is a toss-up. Gonzalez wants to pitch in the ninth inning badly and appears to have regained the velocity on his fastball which has been missing all season, so anything can happen. Be warned. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in shambles this season, and the bullpen isn’t exempt from the mess. In one of my earlier pieces, I wrote that Juan Gutierrez was the favorite to earn save opportunities for Arizona given the recent failures of Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman. With Qualls leaving for sunny Florida, D-backs’ manager Kirk Gibson was still reluctant to name a closer. With Gutierrez hitting the disabled-list with a right shoulder injury, it’s Heilman’s turn on the carousel. I also like rookie Sam Demel as a potential replacement for Gutierrez, as he’s posted 21/5 K/BB over 20 1/3 innings. - All statistical data provided via Baseball-Reference.com Reggie Yinger is the Senior Editor at Baseball Press and his writing has appeared in a men's national magazine publication. He also contributes exclusive writings to The Fantasy Fix. You can contact him at reggie@baseballpress.com or follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Closers, Relief Pitchers, Reggie Yinger Add Comment In previous seasons, I've done just a "straight" ranking by position as opposed to a "tiering" system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.  Miguel Cabrera Tier-One 1) Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals 2) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers 3) Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies 4) Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees Nothing new with these top tier guys, as any of these options will provide solid numbers during the second half of play. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and is still the king. Miguel Cabrera certainly is second to no one in fantasy baseball this year, as he’s posting a MVP/Triple Crown type of season. Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira had up-and-down numbers during the first half of play, but both know how to produce huge numbers after the All-Star break. As the temperature rises, so do the HR and RBI totals for both of these sluggers.  Adrian Gonzalez Tier-Two 5) Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds 6) Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers 7) Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox 8) Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres Again, can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Joey Votto is carrying the Reds offensively right now and has done so all season long, and he could easily be thrown into the Tier-One group. Prince Fielder will probably be staying in Milwaukee the rest of the season, but his numbers should still continue to be around the same mark with the power numbers taking a slight hit. The on-base percentage (OBP) machine that is Kevin Youkilis is putting together another solid season. Expect more of the same during the second half, as the runs scored, slugging (SLG), and OBP numbers will be near the top of the AL leader board. I’m sure every Adrian Gonzalez owner is hoping that the Padres acquire a power-bat before the trading deadline passes. Gonzalez currently sits in second place in the NL with 17 intentional-walks, but with pennant races hitting up, I fully expect teams to start treating Adrian like Barry Bonds (you know..the walks and all).  Billy Butler Tier-Three 9) Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins 10) Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals 11) Adam Dunn - Washington Nationals 12) Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox 13) Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays Justin Morneau has yet to play a game during the second half due to an injury (surprise!) and is a suspect the rest of the season for poor numbers. Morneau floats around a .300/.360/.550 with an on-base plus + slugging percentage (OPS) over .900 during the first half of play, but when the second half hits, his numbers take a huge hit, posting drops in all categories, especially the home run department. Hopefully, you were able to trade Morneau for a high return before the second half of play started. Billy Butler doesn’t have the HR power like most first baseman, but still flat out hits every month. With KC being what it is, Butler will likely be limited as far as his runs scored and the RBI department. The Nationals want to move Adam Dunn before the trade deadline, but the price is reportedly high, so I see him staying put and signing an extension in D.C. Dunn has always been known for the high home run totals, walks, and high strike out totals, but he is surprisingly hitting at an average above the .275 mark right now, which is something he simply isn’t known for. The highest average Dunn has ever hit during an entire season is .267 (2009 season). Another down factor for Dunn is his OBP number this season, as he’s been attacking the zone aggressively, seeing the lowest numbers of pitches per plate appearance during his ten-year career. Over the past two seasons, Dunn hasn’t hit over 15 home runs post All-Star break since the 2007 season.  Adam LaRoche Tier-Four 14) Adam LaRoche - Arizona Diamondbacks 15) Aubrey Huff - San Francisco Giants 16) James Loney - Los Angels Dodgers 17) Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs 18) Lance Berkman - Houston Astros I’ve had a serious man-crush on Adam LaRoche all season long. Everyone knows how he tears the second half of play up, but I think we will see his best second-half surge ever during the 2010 season. Aubrey Huff of the Giants is having his best season since 2008 and has already surpassed his home run totals from last season. Huff’s best month has yet to come, so watch out when the calendar hits August 1st. James Loney reminds me of Billy Butler because of their similar numbers, and the fact that he will not hit for a ton of power, but will still have the high AVG and OPS number. Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman have a lot in common this season, from poor production numbers to the inability to hit left-handed pitching. On the bright side, owners can expect some bounce back from both players. I especially like Lee moving forward, so see if you can grab him from someone for a cheap price. Closing out the season, Lee should hit around the .290 clip and will end with between 20-25 HR.  Ike Davis Tier-Five 19) Ike Davis - New York Mets 20) Gaby Sanchez - Florida Marlins 21) Russell Branyan - Seattle Mariners 22) Justin Smoak - Seattle Mariners 23) Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies 24) Troy Glaus - Atlanta Braves 25) Daric Barton - Oakland Athletics Most of the Tier-Five guys are part of the youth movement and will be moving up the ranks next season, as they are able to hit for solid power numbers and are reliable late round options for that corner infield position on your team. Like most of the Mets roster, Ike Davis is red-hot when playing in Citi Field (.298/.387/.496), but struggles on the road (.212/.272/.400). The good news is that he’s hitting .278 with a .329 OBP against left-handed pitching this season. Former University of Miami slugger Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific rookie season across all categories. He’s hit left-handed pitching extremely well to this point and hits both while at home and on the road. Justin Smoak has the power, but has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, which should be expected for a player of his age.  Written by Reggie Yinger exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for Baseball Press.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, MLB, Ranks, Reggie Yinger, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Barry Bonds, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Aubrey Huff, James Loney, Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Smoak, Russell Branyan, Todd Helton, Troy Glaus, Daric Barton | ArchivesOctober 2011 CategoriesAll Website Marketing NJ
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