Chris Paul (credits below)
A lot has happened since we last spoke, with teams ramping up both training camps and free agency deals in this short offseason. Let's get right into it without wasting a second.
The CP3 Trade
Chris Paul has finally been traded to Los Angeles but its the Clippers that pulled off the deal that sent Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Minnesota's unprotected 2012 first-round pick to the Hornets. After this trade, Paul is joining a team that may struggle to score early outside of himself and Blake Griffin. Paul is a top-4 pick currently according to ESPN.com's Live Draft Results page, and he'll likely stay right there even with the news. He'll put out his usual 20 ppg and 9 apg to start, but if you miss out on him, keep tabs on his owner. With the season about to start in just a week, it's possible he gets off to a slower start and may not live up to expectations of a crazed owner. He could be a buy-low option after a couple weeks of the year.
Around Paul, the two guys with the biggest jump in value are Caron Butler and DeAndre Jordan. Butler went from being potentially a bench scorer to being needed as the primary wing scorer. He'll still be third in scoring behind Paul and Griffin, but his ceiling on points goes way up. Previously a stay away, I'd say he's a nice value pick in the middle to late rounds and should be owned in all leagues. Jordan went from the backup center to the primary center, being looked at to offensive rebound and block shots on defense. He could be a very sneaky pick as a potential double-double machine with 1.5-2 blocks a game. If he stays healthy, I love DeAndre Jordan this year.
As far as the Hornets side of this trade, Eric Gordon will get to take as many shots as he wants now. He averaged 22.3 ppg on 16.9 attempts per game, and I could see both of those numbers rise this upcoming season. 26-27 points a game out of Gordon wouldn't be too surprising, but I wouldn't see him going much higher than that. Jarrett Jack will also get a nice bump in assists likely becoming the starting point guard. He'll be looked on to score as well, and a stat line like 15 and 7 assists a game seems likely. Jack will be a nice backup fantasy PG for any team.
Dallas's Busy In Free Agency
The Mavericks have been the most active of all teams this offseason, allowing championship pieces from last year to go elsewhere and acquiring new pieces in hopes of repeat performance. Caron Butler, J.J. Barea, Corey Brewer, DeShawn Stevenson, and Tyson Chandler were all pieces of the championship team that were allowed to leave thus far in free agency leaving holes in their lineup.
The sign-and-trade deal of Tyson Chandler made the biggest impact of all giving the Mavs a huge trade exception allowing them to acquire Lamar Odom from the Lakers for basically nothing. Expect very similar numbers from him this upcoming year with the potential of him as the starting SF increasing minutes and impact.
With J.J. Barea leaving town to sign with the Timberwolves, the Mavericks reacted by signing a pair of free agent guards in Delonte West and Vince Carter. West will likely be given minutes at both the PG and SG spots to start the season with those minutes being largely based on Rodrique Beaubois' ability to be an effective backup PG. West doesn't have much fantasy value yet because of the uncertainty of his role with the team at this time. On the other hand, Carter will likely start at the SG spot allowing Jason Terry to be a sparkplug off the bench. Carter is still able to put up points and should be owned in most leagues at least at draft day.
In Tyson Chandler's absence, Brendan Haywood will likely get the big bump in rebounds and blocks in moving to the starting lineup. He's not a big scoring threat, but I still like his rebounding ability enough to make him worth rostering. Ian Mahinmi could be worth a flier in deep leagues as his backup for the moment, but they have also signed Brendan Wright who could get time at the PF and C spots as needed.
The Bigger Stuff
On a more serious note, Jeff Green will be out the entire year after finding out he has an aortic aneurysm and will require surgery in January. Doctors have told him that he should be able to resume playing in the NBA by the start of the 2012-13 season. We hope Jeff has an easy recovery and that he's able to return to the league next season.
Memphis has resigned both of their big guns in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to 4-year contracts in hopes of continuing last season's success into the future. Randolph is currently going in the 3rd round on average after a 20 ppg and 12 rpg season, but I could see that going down pretty easily. Expect more like 17 and 9.5 out of Randolph now that he's financially set for a while. If he falls beyond his average draft position, go ahead and snag him up; just don't go out on a limb and grab him early. However, I see Gasol taking a step up this year and like him to improve on last year's 12 ppg and 7 rpg stat line. The younger Gasol seems more like a 15 and 9 guy this year. Be aware, though, that Gasol did not play in the the Grizzlies first preseason game with a sprained ankle, and if his ankle continues to bother him, he could miss some regular season games at the start of the year.
Nene decided to return to Denver after being courted by many of the best teams in the league. We all know what Nene can do, but in their first full year without Carmelo Anthony he will be needed to shoulder even more of the scoring load. Nene has huge upside potential on a team that has very little returning for scoring and is currently going in the late 6th round of drafts. I will be taking him in many of my leagues before other teams will have a chance to scoop him up.
Jamal Crawford was the 2nd most sought-after guard this offseason outside of Chris Paul, and he decided to sign a long-term deal with the Portland Trailblazers. The combo guard is joining a Blazers team with a logjam at the SG/SF positions. Between himself, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Gerald Wallace, there is a lot of scoring on that team that could be exploited with some abnormal lineups. Crawford will be playing the same role he had in Atlanta as the first guard off the bench and will likely see some time at both PG and SG. The Blazers are light at PG with Raymond Felton as the only true PG on their roster. Look for similar numbers coming from the 31-year-old, at least to start the season until roles have become more clear.
David West has signed a 2-year deal with the Indiana Pacers in a move that benefits all parties involved. West is primarily a scorer (18.9 ppg last season) with only average rebounding stats for a power forward (7.5 rpg). The rebounding numbers could potentially go up but his knee is still an issue. West did not play in the Pacers' preseason opener against the Bulls Friday night, and won't see action until he has a better handle of the system there. The addition of David West means the subtraction of some of Tyler Hansbrough's fantasy value with a likely move to the bench for him. Less minutes means less of everything out of Hansbrough, but if that knee acts up on West, Hansbrough could be thrust back into a starting role once again. Regardless, I'll be staying away from both of them for the time being.
Thaddeus Young signed a big contract to return to the Philadelphia 76ers and return to his sixth man role off their bench. He is a streaky scorer and will get plenty of chances to score in this offense. His rebounding has also gone up slightly every year and getting 5-6 rpg from your SF is always a nice perk. He's a nice value later on in drafts.
The scoring machine that is Marcus Thornton has resigned with the Sacramento Kings, a team that has no lack of scoring already. Thornton joins a team with Tyreke Evans and rookie sharpshooter Jimmer Fredette in the backcourt and DeMarcus Cousins and J.J. Hickson in the frontcourt. This Sacramento team will be a high scoring team and will struggle on defense at times. Someone is not going to get enough minutes to make a big impact and at this point it's likely Fredette will be the odd man out until he can play better defense than he did at BYU. I'm interested in seeing Saturday night's preseason game against the Warriors to see who gets what minutes to start the season. If you're drafting now and you need points, Thornton can fill it up and is a nice late round sleeper.
The FYIs
J.J. Barea has signed a 4-year deal with the Timberwolves to compete in a backup role with Luke Ridnour. Ricky Rubio will almost surely start for the time being, making either Ridnour or Barea out of luck for minutes. Either way both Barea and Ridnour are unownable.
After being waived earlier this offseason by the Pistons, Rip Hamilton has joined the Bulls resulting in the release of Keith Bogans. Hamilton will likely start most games alongside Luol Deng and give them the extra scoring they're looking for there. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver will be the two subs at the SG/SF just like they were last year.
Mario Chalmers resigned with the Heat to retain his starting PG spot on that team. If he gets his act together there, he could be a decent source of assists in deep leagues. Until that point, feel free to ignore him just like James, Wade, and Bosh do.
Grant Hill signed a 1-year deal with the Suns this offseason to likely end his career there. He's been a decent scorer and rebounder and has value in deep leagues.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
(December 18, 2011 - Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America)
The CP3 Trade
Chris Paul has finally been traded to Los Angeles but its the Clippers that pulled off the deal that sent Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Minnesota's unprotected 2012 first-round pick to the Hornets. After this trade, Paul is joining a team that may struggle to score early outside of himself and Blake Griffin. Paul is a top-4 pick currently according to ESPN.com's Live Draft Results page, and he'll likely stay right there even with the news. He'll put out his usual 20 ppg and 9 apg to start, but if you miss out on him, keep tabs on his owner. With the season about to start in just a week, it's possible he gets off to a slower start and may not live up to expectations of a crazed owner. He could be a buy-low option after a couple weeks of the year.
Around Paul, the two guys with the biggest jump in value are Caron Butler and DeAndre Jordan. Butler went from being potentially a bench scorer to being needed as the primary wing scorer. He'll still be third in scoring behind Paul and Griffin, but his ceiling on points goes way up. Previously a stay away, I'd say he's a nice value pick in the middle to late rounds and should be owned in all leagues. Jordan went from the backup center to the primary center, being looked at to offensive rebound and block shots on defense. He could be a very sneaky pick as a potential double-double machine with 1.5-2 blocks a game. If he stays healthy, I love DeAndre Jordan this year.
As far as the Hornets side of this trade, Eric Gordon will get to take as many shots as he wants now. He averaged 22.3 ppg on 16.9 attempts per game, and I could see both of those numbers rise this upcoming season. 26-27 points a game out of Gordon wouldn't be too surprising, but I wouldn't see him going much higher than that. Jarrett Jack will also get a nice bump in assists likely becoming the starting point guard. He'll be looked on to score as well, and a stat line like 15 and 7 assists a game seems likely. Jack will be a nice backup fantasy PG for any team.
Dallas's Busy In Free Agency
The Mavericks have been the most active of all teams this offseason, allowing championship pieces from last year to go elsewhere and acquiring new pieces in hopes of repeat performance. Caron Butler, J.J. Barea, Corey Brewer, DeShawn Stevenson, and Tyson Chandler were all pieces of the championship team that were allowed to leave thus far in free agency leaving holes in their lineup.
The sign-and-trade deal of Tyson Chandler made the biggest impact of all giving the Mavs a huge trade exception allowing them to acquire Lamar Odom from the Lakers for basically nothing. Expect very similar numbers from him this upcoming year with the potential of him as the starting SF increasing minutes and impact.
With J.J. Barea leaving town to sign with the Timberwolves, the Mavericks reacted by signing a pair of free agent guards in Delonte West and Vince Carter. West will likely be given minutes at both the PG and SG spots to start the season with those minutes being largely based on Rodrique Beaubois' ability to be an effective backup PG. West doesn't have much fantasy value yet because of the uncertainty of his role with the team at this time. On the other hand, Carter will likely start at the SG spot allowing Jason Terry to be a sparkplug off the bench. Carter is still able to put up points and should be owned in most leagues at least at draft day.
In Tyson Chandler's absence, Brendan Haywood will likely get the big bump in rebounds and blocks in moving to the starting lineup. He's not a big scoring threat, but I still like his rebounding ability enough to make him worth rostering. Ian Mahinmi could be worth a flier in deep leagues as his backup for the moment, but they have also signed Brendan Wright who could get time at the PF and C spots as needed.
The Bigger Stuff
On a more serious note, Jeff Green will be out the entire year after finding out he has an aortic aneurysm and will require surgery in January. Doctors have told him that he should be able to resume playing in the NBA by the start of the 2012-13 season. We hope Jeff has an easy recovery and that he's able to return to the league next season.
Memphis has resigned both of their big guns in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to 4-year contracts in hopes of continuing last season's success into the future. Randolph is currently going in the 3rd round on average after a 20 ppg and 12 rpg season, but I could see that going down pretty easily. Expect more like 17 and 9.5 out of Randolph now that he's financially set for a while. If he falls beyond his average draft position, go ahead and snag him up; just don't go out on a limb and grab him early. However, I see Gasol taking a step up this year and like him to improve on last year's 12 ppg and 7 rpg stat line. The younger Gasol seems more like a 15 and 9 guy this year. Be aware, though, that Gasol did not play in the the Grizzlies first preseason game with a sprained ankle, and if his ankle continues to bother him, he could miss some regular season games at the start of the year.
Nene decided to return to Denver after being courted by many of the best teams in the league. We all know what Nene can do, but in their first full year without Carmelo Anthony he will be needed to shoulder even more of the scoring load. Nene has huge upside potential on a team that has very little returning for scoring and is currently going in the late 6th round of drafts. I will be taking him in many of my leagues before other teams will have a chance to scoop him up.
Jamal Crawford was the 2nd most sought-after guard this offseason outside of Chris Paul, and he decided to sign a long-term deal with the Portland Trailblazers. The combo guard is joining a Blazers team with a logjam at the SG/SF positions. Between himself, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Gerald Wallace, there is a lot of scoring on that team that could be exploited with some abnormal lineups. Crawford will be playing the same role he had in Atlanta as the first guard off the bench and will likely see some time at both PG and SG. The Blazers are light at PG with Raymond Felton as the only true PG on their roster. Look for similar numbers coming from the 31-year-old, at least to start the season until roles have become more clear.
David West has signed a 2-year deal with the Indiana Pacers in a move that benefits all parties involved. West is primarily a scorer (18.9 ppg last season) with only average rebounding stats for a power forward (7.5 rpg). The rebounding numbers could potentially go up but his knee is still an issue. West did not play in the Pacers' preseason opener against the Bulls Friday night, and won't see action until he has a better handle of the system there. The addition of David West means the subtraction of some of Tyler Hansbrough's fantasy value with a likely move to the bench for him. Less minutes means less of everything out of Hansbrough, but if that knee acts up on West, Hansbrough could be thrust back into a starting role once again. Regardless, I'll be staying away from both of them for the time being.
Thaddeus Young signed a big contract to return to the Philadelphia 76ers and return to his sixth man role off their bench. He is a streaky scorer and will get plenty of chances to score in this offense. His rebounding has also gone up slightly every year and getting 5-6 rpg from your SF is always a nice perk. He's a nice value later on in drafts.
The scoring machine that is Marcus Thornton has resigned with the Sacramento Kings, a team that has no lack of scoring already. Thornton joins a team with Tyreke Evans and rookie sharpshooter Jimmer Fredette in the backcourt and DeMarcus Cousins and J.J. Hickson in the frontcourt. This Sacramento team will be a high scoring team and will struggle on defense at times. Someone is not going to get enough minutes to make a big impact and at this point it's likely Fredette will be the odd man out until he can play better defense than he did at BYU. I'm interested in seeing Saturday night's preseason game against the Warriors to see who gets what minutes to start the season. If you're drafting now and you need points, Thornton can fill it up and is a nice late round sleeper.
The FYIs
J.J. Barea has signed a 4-year deal with the Timberwolves to compete in a backup role with Luke Ridnour. Ricky Rubio will almost surely start for the time being, making either Ridnour or Barea out of luck for minutes. Either way both Barea and Ridnour are unownable.
After being waived earlier this offseason by the Pistons, Rip Hamilton has joined the Bulls resulting in the release of Keith Bogans. Hamilton will likely start most games alongside Luol Deng and give them the extra scoring they're looking for there. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver will be the two subs at the SG/SF just like they were last year.
Mario Chalmers resigned with the Heat to retain his starting PG spot on that team. If he gets his act together there, he could be a decent source of assists in deep leagues. Until that point, feel free to ignore him just like James, Wade, and Bosh do.
Grant Hill signed a 1-year deal with the Suns this offseason to likely end his career there. He's been a decent scorer and rebounder and has value in deep leagues.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix
or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!
(December 18, 2011 - Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America)
