2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
 
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Jordy Smith
Cocaine, booze and foreign discos sounds like a wild night, but these are the things distracting the top surfers in the world as they compete around the globe in contests.~ These factors also must be taken into consideration when setting your line up for Fantasy Surfer because it is well known and documented that more than a few of the top surfers keep late hours on the piss and marching powder. There is no such thing as a curfew check in the world of professional surfing and in many contests the lack of one prevents some of the top names from getting solid results.  Drugs, booze and loose women make Fantasy Surfer one of the hardest “get it right” fantasy games in the world of sports. 
  
Fantasy Surfer hosted by Surfer Magazine at www.fantasysurfer.com  is a growing fantasy league in the world of professional surfing.  It boasts over 90,000 participants.  It is similar to most fantasy sports, in that you select a roster prior to each event. The “season” consists of  twelve contests held in various parts of the world. Some of these locations include France, South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Hawaii, Tahiti and southern California.   

The team selection is based on a payroll. Each players starts with a bank of $50 million and with that cash you are able to select a team of eight competitors.  Top competitors like Kelly Slater, Mick Fanning and Taj Burrow fetch between $10-12 million, while middle guys like Taylor Knox and the Hobgood twins get about $7 million and the perennial bottom feeders like Mick Cambell and Neco Padaratz cost in the $3 million range.  To top out the list, there are always a few local wildcards going for $300,000. Usually those are the guys used to fill out your roster when you are broke and surprisingly their knowledge of the wave sometimes makes them the best bargain available. 

With three contests down the usual guys are at the tops, but one surprise being Jadson Andre from Brazil. The newcomer won that last contest in his home country which vaulted him to a  number four ranking and as a result his fantasy cost  has risen.  I did not have him picked and I really never do well when selecting a team for the Brazil contest. It’s proximity to the source  (Bolivia, Colombian and Peru) combined with the Brazilian female contingency that run amuck at contest sites has caused many a top surfer to spend their time in Brazil holed up in a hotel room with a pile of powder and a few hot babes instead of focusing on their upcoming heats. Can you blame them? 

Next up, the Jeffery’s Bay, South Africa contest held between July 15th and the 25th.  The right hand point is considered one of the wonders of the world of surfing.  A long right where leg strength and speed are a prerequisite for any type of success. I am looking for the top guys to have solid results.  There are not blow peddlers on every corner  and hot women running around in g strings (sorry bru) on the beach, so this contest will have far less casualties than in some of the other contest locations.  I am going with a team of regular footers and hoping for the best. 

My line up - 

Kelly Slater - focused and on a roll and his 18 year old girlfriend has him feeling like a grom again 
Andy Irons - if he can stay clean or at least 1/2 way clean, he could be back on track 
Mick Fanning - speed he has, power he is getting - always dangerous in long rights 
Patrick Guadauskas - surfing well and we need another CA tour main stay 
Brett Simpson - I am from HB, I have to go with him 
Travis Logie - the lone goofy footer on my team, but he is from South Africa and that will help 
Jordy Smith - confidence of a vet - combining new school tricks and old school power - back at home in South Africa
Wild card - pick one up for cheap right before the contest

Patrick Reilly is not a grom. He is actually the Fantasy Surfer Editor @TheFantasyFix.com.
Email - Patrick@thefantasyfix.com

Tags: Fantasy Surfing, Fantasy Surfer, Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Kelly Slater, Jordy Smith, Jadson Andre, Patrick Guadauskas, Brett Simpson, Travis Logie, Andy Irons, Mick Fanning, Patrick Reilly, Taj Burrow, Neco Padaratz, Taylor Knox, Damien Hobgood, CJ Hobgood, Fantasy Surfer, Jeffery's Bay
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Johnny Cueto
A once proud franchise, the Cincinnati Reds have suffered through a prolonged drought of success. They've failed to register a winning campaign since the 2000 season, and have been absent from postseason play since 1995. Since '95 they've gone through 7 managers and 4 general managers. In 2010, the tide finally appears to be turning. Under the leadership of Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty, the Reds have assembled a diverse roster of experienced veterans and young talent- winning baseball has been the result. The Reds are 25-18 and in 1st place in the NL Central. 

OFFENSE
The Reds have been one of the most opportunistic hitting teams in Major League Baseball. Their team batting average with RISP is .287. That figure skyrockets to .313 in RISP w/2 out situations, tops in baseball. They've amassed 81 runs after 2 outs in a inning. Their hitting .371 in 35 AB with the base loaded, including 3 grand slams. In addition, the Reds have scored the most runs in baseball from the 7th inning on with 88, and have 4 walk-off wins (3 walk-off HR’s). Their combination of power (49 HR) and speed (30 SB) give them a myriad of options to create runs. 

Key contributors: 
 1B Joey Votto .313, 10 HR, 32 RBI- Outside of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Just Morneau, you'd be hard pressed to find a more consistent performer at first base. Votto always delivers a quality at bat, working the count into his favor and hitting line drives. His line drive rate is 18%. His strikeout number (39) is bloated as a result of his willingness to work deep counts, but he's also drawn 26 BB. He's batting .372 with RISP and .368 in RISP w/2 out situations. Votto is an extremely dependable RBI man. He's also flashed some speed, stealing 6 bases, which is always a bonus for a 1B. 

OF Jonny Gomes .292, 6 HR, 27 RBI- Gomes production with the bat and unbridled enthusiasm have earned him a spot in the Reds everyday lineup. He's gotten a start in 14 of the last 15 games. Gomes has been otherworldly with ducks on the pond. Of his 35 hits this season, 20 have come with runners in scoring position. He's hitting .419 in 31 AB with RISP, driving in 23 runs. He's hitting .583 (7 for 12) in RISP w/2 out situations, driving in 10. His RBI per hit ratio is sick. 

Struggling:
2B Brandon Phillips .266, 5 HR, 12 RBI- Thought of amongst the top second baseman in the game, Phillips has really scuffled in 2010. For a guy that spent 20 games in the cleanup spot, his RBI total of 12 is bordering on anemic. His batting average with RISP is an embarrassing .175. He's been far more effective in the #2 spot in the batting order, hitting .299 with a .371 OBP, and scoring 20 of his 31 runs.  After stealing 23 bases in '08 and 25 in '09, he's swiped only 4 bags this season and been caught 5 times. Phillips is only 28, but his dwindling numbers are a bit disconcerting. 

PITCHING

Key contributors: 
Mile Leake 4-0, 2.91 ERA, 52 2/3 innings 41 hits allowed, 39:21 K:BB ratio
Ironically, despite having never pitched in a professional game (MiLB or MLB) until this season, Leake has been the Reds most consistent arm. 22 year old Mike Leake has already drawn comparisons to one of the sport's premiere control artists, Greg Maddux. Leake walked 12 men in his first two starts, but has since overcome the rookie jitters. In his last 6 starts, spanning 39 innings, he's given out just 12 free passes. His WHIP is a sparkling 1.18. Not a huge strikeout pitcher, Leake has induced ground balls at a 53% clip. The league continues to make adjustments to Leake's pitching style, but he's adjusting along with them like a seasoned vet. 

Johnny Cueto 3-1, 3.67 ERA, 49 innings 46 hits allowed, 40:13 K:BB ratio
Cueto has turned up the heat in his last 3 starts: 22 innings, 15 hits allowed and 3 earned runs. He's struck out 23 and walked just 3 during that stretch. Instead of dancing around the strike zone, Cueto is now attacking hitters. His May 11th start at Pittsburgh was masterful, throwing a complete game shutout while allowing only a single baserunner. Despite his prosperous run, Cueto remains a predominantly fly ball pitcher and is quite susceptible to the HR. He's been the beneficiary of some good fortune on deep fly outs, which won't last forever. But instead of a 3 run homer after two BB, it'll be a solo shot with the new Cueto. 

Homer Bailey 1-2, 5.21 ERA, 48 1/3 innings 50 hits allowed, 40:20 K:BB ratio
He's shown flashes of brilliance, but Bailey continues to be plagued by inconsistency. Not just from start to start, but from inning to inning and batter to batter. For a guy that throws mid 90's, he gets in a lot of trouble with his changeup and breaking stuff. He showed what he's capable of in a complete game shutout of the Pirates (the day after Cueto's SO). He followed up that effort with a strong 7 innings against Milwaukee, but his ERA is still a bloated 5.21. His command has been erratic with four starts of 3 walks or more. For a power pitcher, he doesn't record massive strikeout lines (7.45 K/9). Too many balls are put in play against him. Bailey's BABIP is .309. The gopher ball has also tormented Bailey, allowing 1.3 per 9 innings. 

Struggling:
Aaron Harang 2-5, 6.02 ERA, 52 1/3 inning 67 hits allowed, 45:11 K:BB ratio
Harang has been getting battered around the ballpark. His batting average against is .316 and his BABIP is an outrageous .357. When you're a fly ball pitcher with those key numbers, it's likely to get ugly, and it has for Harang. He's allowing 1.72 HR's per 9 innings, and 18% of his fly balls are leaving the park. Harang has been a mainstay in the Reds rotation since 2004, but his time is near an end. 

Reinforcements on the way
SP Edinson Volquez- Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Volquez is expected to return shortly after the All Star Break. He's serving his 50 game suspension for PED's while on the DL, so he'll be ready to go when healthy. 

SP Aroldis Chapman- The lefty flamethrower from Cuba is currently starting in AAA Louisville. In 8 game starts he's 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA. In his 40 2/3 innings he's allowed 39 hits, walked 24 and struck out 48. With the Reds in the thick of things and Harang's inability to record outs, the team will be hard pressed not to give him the call.

OF Chris Dickerson- Dickerson will be out until early June after wrist surgery. There doesn’t appear to be a spot for him in the Reds outfield at the moment, but Dickerson has an excellent eye and provides another speed option, most likely off the bench. 


Do you think Cincinnati can keep it up for a full season? Will Brandon Phillips turn it around?
Leave a comment  or reply to us on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Cincinnati Reds, Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, Brandon Phillips, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman, Chris Dickerson
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Cameron Maybin
Off the charts potential. Unteachable physical ability. Five tool player. Top rated prospect. Minor league success. You hear these terms associated with a healthy number of up and comers, but only the special ones fulfill the hype. It takes experience, maturity and the ability to recognize the need for, and implementation of, adjustments in your game. Two center fielders in particular, both with undeniable talent, are going through these growing pains at the plate in 2010: Dexter Fowler of the Colorado Rockies and Cameron Maybin of the Florida Marlins. 

Fowler, 24, tore up AA Tulsa in 2008 with a .335 BA, .431 OBP, 9 HR and 64 RBI. He was recalled to the big club in September of '08, and spent his first full season in the majors in 2009. His rookie campaign was more than respectable, hitting .266 with 4 HR, 73 runs scored and 34 RBI. He didn't display home run pop, but used the gaps well finishing with 29 doubles and 10 triples. Despite 116 K, he showed good patience and plate discipline, drawing 67 walks. His 'easy' speed and long strides resulted in 27 bases swiped. 

The opening stanza of 2010 has not been as kind to Fowler. Pitchers have made their adjustments, and he has yet to make the appropriate acclimations. In 118 official plate appearances, he's batting .237 with 1 HR and only 3 RBI. He has struggled significantly with runners in scoring position, coming up with only 4 hits in 23 AB (.174). He's doesn't appear to be pressing, still having drawn 20 base on balls. In fact, he might be too patient. He's seen 567 pitches, and has faced an 0-2 count in 31 of his plate appearances (3 hits). He has 6 hits in 14 AB when putting the first ball in play. Perhaps a more aggressive approach would be beneficial. Fowler, a switch hitter, has had a rough go from the left side, hitting just .185 in 85 AB with 23 K. He's stolen 5 bases and been caught 3 times. 

Maybin, 23, was the 10th overall selection by the Tigers in the 2005 amateur draft. He got a taste of major league action as a 20 year old in 2007, where he struck out 21 times in 49 at bats. Despite his struggles, he was still considered a top 10 prospect in MLB, and was the cornerstone piece in the Miguel Cabrera trade. He spent 82 games in AAA New Orleans before getting the call in 2009. In 176 major league at bats in '09, Maybin hit .250 with 4 HR, 13 RBI and struck out 51 times. He showed flashes, but all in all seemed "lost" at the dish. 

2010 has been a similar story for Maybin. There are times when he gets overly pull conscious, opens up too early and flails at the ball. When he waits back and uses the whole field, which he's more than capable of doing, he looks like a completely different hitter. In 117 plate appearances he's batting .250 with 1 HR and 8 RBI. 25 of his 30 hits have been singles. Like Fowler, he's too patient early on in counts for a hitter with suspect pitch recognition. He's struck out 39 times, and after falling behind in the count 0-2, he's 2 for 27. He's seen 539 pitches. If he went up to the plate with a plan of attack, he'd take more full, assertive cuts rather than tentative, staying alive swings. 

Both Fowler and Maybin are still trying to find their identities at the highest level. Time is on their side. As they gain more experience, the future looks quite bright.At 6'4 and 6'3 respectively, you'd think both can still grow into power. Neither has shown it to this stage.

Other scuffling young OF's: 

Chris Coghlan, LF Marlins- .208, 1 HR, 7 RBI. Coghlan, last year's NL Rookie of the Year, has just two extra base hits in 125 at bats. His K:BB ratio of 31:10 is not pretty.  He's just 5 for 26 (.192) with RISP.

Adam Jones, CF Orioles- .245, 3 HR, 9 RBI. An All-Star in 2009, Jones has really felt the hurt of Brian Robert's absence in the lineup. 28 of his 38 hits have been singles, including 9 of the infield variey. He's had 1 successful stolen base attempt in 4 tries. After hitting .311 with RISP in '09, he currently sits at .208. 

Justin Upton, RF Diamondbacks- .250, 6 HR, 20 RBI- Scuffling is a bit harsh, but when you have sky high expectations as Upton does , the subtleties get pointed out. Quite simply, he's striking out exorbitantly. 49 strikeouts in 144 AB is just obscene (34% strikeout rate). With his natural stroke to right field, there is no reason he should be hitting .250. 

This article was written by our featured writer Adam exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. 

Adam Ganeles
adam.ganeles@inasectv.com
Twitter.com/adamganeles


Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Adam Ganeles, Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies, Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins, Chris Coughlan, Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
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