2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Advice & Analysis
MLB records are broken almost every year, some big, some small. Some take longer than others. It took 38 years before Roger Maris's 61 in '61 was broken and then only another two years after for the record to fall again. Some records may just be etched in stone forever since the game is forever changing, like Cy Young's 511 wins. The bottom-line is that not only do the fans crave for them to be broken but the players do too. So we asked our writers: Of current players, who has the best chance of breaking a modern era MLB record before their career is over? Will anyone every beat Rickey Henderson's 130 swipes or Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak? We sure hope so...  Billy Butler MOST DOUBLES IN A SEASON: EARL WEBB 67 PREDICTION: BILLY BUTLER The record for doubles in a season was set by Earl Webb in 1933 with 67. Among current major leaguers with 5 years or less experience, the most likely candidate to surpass that mark is the Royals Billy Butler. Butler doesn't discriminate against any one section of the baseball diamond. He hits from foul pole to foul pole, from gap to gap. Taking a look at his spray chart, here's the breakdown of his 20 doubles (on pace for 49) thus far in 2010: 5 to LF, 5 to left center, 2 to CF, 2 to right center and 6 to RF. Butler hit 51 two base hits in 2009, and has 116 in 440 career games. Kauffman Stadium is a spacious park (330, 375, 410, 375, 330) and very accommodating to an all-field hitter like Butler. He has power, but is more of a pure line drive hitter than a long fly ball guy. His legs are certainly not a strong suit, so he won't be legging out many triples (3 career). Quite simply, Billy Butler was born to hit doubles, and all the confounding variables seem to be in his favor for a special run. 67 is a reach, but Todd Helton's 59 (highest total since 1936) is not out of the realm of possibility. Written by Adam Ganeles for thefantasyfix.com  Stephen Strasburg HIGHEST STRIKEOUT RATIO PER 9: RANDY JOHNSON 13.4 PREDICTION: STEPHEN STRASBURG In modern baseball, only Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, and Pedro Martinez have averaged over 10K/9 for their career. The single season mark is held by Randy Johnson's 13.4 K/9 effort from 2001. In his first four starts, Stephen Strasburg has started off with a 14.6 K/9 rate. So what if it's so early into Strasburg's career to begin speculating about how things will go, there is no reason to believe that he's going to slow down. 75 of the 95 pitches he threw in his last start were strikes and through every level he's kept his WHIP under 1. He throws strikes at an amazing percentage and hitters can not put the ball in play, sounds like a recipe for Ks to me. Written by James Weston for thefantasyfix.com  Ryan Howard MOST HOME RUNS IN A MONTH: SAMMY SOSA 20 PREDICTION: RYAN HOWARD Slamming Sammy holds the record but of course he played when taking steroids was the norm. The legitimate winner was Rudy York with 18 (1937) and runner-up Babe Ruth with 17 (1927). Although off to a slower start this year, Ryan Howard is still a home-run machine. Howard only has 15 right now and has historically been a second half player, with not only better power numbers, but a batting average 40 points higher. Even though there are plenty of other big sluggers out there, I feel Howard has the best chance for owning this record. Since his first full season in 2006 he hasn't hit less than 45 in a year. He's hit over ten in a month 11 times and reached a high of 14 in August '06. Ryan Howard was born to hit souvenirs into the bleachers! Written by Evan Marx for thefantasyfix.com  Mark Teixeira MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITH A HIT BY A SWITCH HITTER (AL only): JOSE OFFERMAN 27 PREDICTION: MARK TEIXEIRA It’s difficult to find a record in baseball that doesn’t seem ridiculously out of reach. With the difficult task at hand, I have combed through the archives for one that may fall. Something interesting jumped out at me while I was exploring current and past hitting streaks. As usual, after an April to forget Mark Teixeira is currently riding a 9 game hitting streak. Being a switch hitter you would think that a consecutive game hitting streak would be easier because one would be able to take advantage of favorable matchups. Especially in the AL where you get considerably more protection in the lineup because you don’t have to bat the pitcher. Apparently, this is where I was mistaken. Jose Offerman (known mostly for his chasing after pitchers with bats & punching umpires), currently holds the AL record for consecutive games with a hit as a switch hitter at 27 while playing with the Kansas City Royals in 1998. Nobody in baseball has a better chance to beat this record than Teixeira, who historically is a VERY streaky player. He is already 1/3 of the way there, and hitting in the Yankee lineup he will see plenty of good pitches. Mark has some great matchups the next 18 games as well with 7 vs. Seattle, 3 vs. Toronto, 3 vs. Oakland, 3 vs. TB, 2 vs. LAA, & the recorder breaker home against KC where Offerman played when he set the current record. Hopefully, the layoff of the All Star Game doesn’t cool off his hot bat. Written by Dan Pollak for thefantasyfix.com  Mark Reynolds MOST STRIKEOUTS IN A SEASON BY A BATTER (MARK REYNOLDS 223) PREDICTION: MARK REYNOLDS To me, the most likely record to be broken by a young player is strikeouts by a hitter in a single season. Not a difficult to predict, you say, and you'd be right. After all, its a record that has been broken 4 times in the past 7 years. But the tricky part is who will break it in the coming seasons. Will it be Mark Reynolds, who seems to have a lock on this record? Or will it be Justin Upton, who has only 7 fewer K's this year? Or maybe even Ryan Howard, who set the record himself two years ago? Or perhaps dark horse contenders Rickie Weeks and David Wright? After much back-and-forth, I'm gonna have to be boring and stick with Reynolds. The man strikes out so much - and is actually finding a way to do it more and more often - that its going to be virtually impossible for anyone to catch him. I expect Reynolds to break it twice in the next 4 years and eventually lose playing time because of it - that strikeout rate is just not sustainable even if he does hit a ton of home runs. GUEST WRITER: Jesse Mendelson, Partner and Senior Writer for www,fantasybaseball101.com,has been playing fantasy baseball almost as long as Ron Shandler with a long history of both tremendous successes and spectacular flameouts. Be sure to follow Jesse's writing on www.fantasybaseball101.com and on Twitter @fb101.  Pablo Sandoval MOST GIDP BY A SWITCH HITTER IN A SINGLE SEASON (NL): Ted Simmons (STL-1973)/Dave Philley (PHI-1952) 29 PREDICTION: PABLO SANDOVAL The double play is a pitcher’s best friend, a batter’s worst enemy and more often than not, an inning killer. Pablo Sandoval of the San Francisco Giants will break the record for grounding into the most double plays by a switch-hitter in a single season, this year. Technically, the switch-hitting batter is said to have an advantage over the pitcher, being able to strategically shift from one side of the plate to the other to counter the pitcher’s delivery. Additionally, It is not uncommon for the switch-hitter to achieve a higher batting average from one side of the plate and hit for more power from the other. Neither has been the case for Pablo Sandoval thus far in 2010 leaving fantasy baseball owners and stat geeks scratching their heads. Despite hitting for a higher average (.297) and more power (all six of his home runs) from the left side of the plate versus right handed pitching, Pablo has also grounded into 12 double plays. From the right side of the plate versus left handed pitchers, Sandoval is hitting .211 with zero home runs and has grounded into five double plays. Just 11 games before the All-Star Break, Kung-Fu Panda has grounded into eighteen double plays. This puts him on pace to surpass the current record by ten, for a season total of 39. In comparison, the greatest switch-hitter to ever play the game, Mickey Mantle, never grounded into more than 11 double plays in a single season. Additionally, despite not being a switch-hitter, Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers has yet to ground into a single double play through 320 plate appearances in 2010. Written by Alan Harrison for thefantasyfix.com with an assist to Juan Carlos! Are there any other current players that have a legit shot to break a modern day MLB record? Leave us a comment or hit us up on Twitter! Tags: Fantasy Sports Advice, Fantasy Baseball Advice, The Fantasy Fix, MLB, Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals, Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants, Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals, Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies Add Comment  Chris Carter Surveying the AAA ranks in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues – from the power bat of Chris Carter to the newly minted relief arm of Aroldis Champman. Plus the New York Yankees phenom, Jesus Montero, is starting to heating up! POSITION PLAYERS Chris Carter, 1B Oakland AAA Line – .237, 15 HR, 54 RBI There is no questioning the pop in his bat. Carter hit 39 HR in A ball in '08 and hit 28 HR between AA and AAA last season. He's displayed good patience at the plate, drawing 42 walks (85 in '09). The strikeouts, albeit, are alarming. He K'd 133 times last season, and has already whiffed 91 times in 76 games this year. When behind in the count he's hitting .151 with 40 K's, which means he's quite pitchable. I for one have had enough of Jack Cust, and would love to see Carter get a shot with the big club. Yonder Alonso, 1B Cincinnati AAA Line – .230, 3 HR, 21 RBI The 2008 #7 overall selection has struggled with his promotion to the International League. After posting a 19:16 BB to K ratio in 31 AA games, his current 10:33 ratio is a complete reversal. A LHH, he's struck out 26 times against RHP, and only seven times in 55 AB against LHP. He's sporting a .272 OBP in 45 games. Alonso is not flashing power either, with six combined HR's between the two levels (76 games). He's slugging .328 in AAA. Unless he's a trade piece, it's difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel with Votto in his path. Jesus Montero, C NY Yankees AAA Line – .251, 6 HR, 31 RBI It took a while, but Montero is starting to mash. To put things in perspective: he had three homers and 21 RBI in the season's first two months -- he has three HR and 8 RBI in his last nie games. Eight of his 17 doubles have come in the month of June. Standing at 6'4, and with stalwart defender Austin Romine also in the system, Montero seems destined for a position change. Josh Bell, 3B Baltimore AAA Line – .260, 8 HR 38 RBI Another power bat with too many K's in it. The switch hitting Bell averages a strikeout per game on the season, and has K'd 14 times in his last 10. This is not startling news, as he struck out 98 times in two AA stops last season. However, the precipitous drop in walks is worrisome. He's drawn only 18 BB in 72 games, as opposed to 61 BB in '09. On a positive note, Bell has shown enhanced focus in RISP situations, hit .304 and driving in 30 of his 38 runs. The O's certainly have no use for Tejada, maybe he'll find his opportunity by default. Allen Craig, OF St. Louis AAA Line – .306, 9 HR, 55 RBI After a strong showing in spring training, the 25 year old Craig broke camp with the big club. Unfortunately, his stay was short lived as he collected just one base hit in 18 AB. He's been tearing up the PCL since. In 27 June games, he's batting .336 with 11 doubles, seven HR and an eye popping 35 RBI. His June OPS is 1.044, and he has 14 RBI in his last ten games. Craig is hitting .366 in 71 AB with RISP. He can flat out rake, but there's simply no room for him in a stacked Cardinal OF. Michael Taylor, OF Oakland AAA Line – .249, 3 HR, 38 RBI Taylor was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal for Toronto, and then sent to Oakland for Brett Wallace. At 6'6 260, he's an absolute mammoth of a man, but possesses incredible athletic gifts. Not many people his size can run and play the outfield. He stole 15 bases in '08, 21 in '09 and eight thus far in 2010. He's a real threat to leg out a triple as well. The A's are still waiting on his power at the AAA level (.378 SLG %). Taylor is hitting .343 with RISP. At 24, he's still raw with a definite learning curve – but the skills are there. Brandon Allen, 1B Arizona AAA Line – .259, 8 HR, 33 RBI Allen is showing great plate discipline, drawing nearly as many walks (41) as he has hits (43). Despite his average, his OBP is .411. His previous high for BB in a minor league season is 60 in AA '08. In his 100 AB stint with the Diamondbacks last September, Allen hit .202 with four HR, and 12:40 BB to K ratio. He has a long swing and not a particularly swift bat. He will likely always struggle to make contact at the higher level. But when he does connect, it can go a long way. If the D'backs deal LaRoche, he'll play 1B. PITCHERS Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP Cincinnati AAA Line – 5-5, 4.06 ERA, 81 K The Reds have made the decision to use Chapman out of the bullpen for the remainder of 2010. However, the plan is still to groom him as a starter in the future. On the season Chapman has 81 K's in 68 2/3 innings, but with those strikeouts also come 41 BB. LHH are hitting .241 against him. After producing a 1.29 ERA in four April starts, he pitched to a 5.47 ERA in May and 5.09 thus far in June. Daniel Hudson, SP Chicago White Sox AAA Line – 10-3, 3.83 ERA, 97 K Hudson has put up stunning K:BB ratios at every minor league stop. 90:22 in Rookie ball, 166:34 between A, AA and AAA in '09, and 97 to 27 this season. Hudson's fastball is in the low-mid 90's with good location and his trademark pitch is his changeup. Hudson made two big league starts last season, compiling 11 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 8 K's and an ugly nine walks. With the resurgence of Freddy Garcia (sort of), I suppose he'll have to wait for his time. Tanner Scheppers, RP/SP Texas AAA Line – 1-0, 2.86 ERA, 39 K After 11 innings of 3 hit 1 run ball as a reliever in AA (.079 BAA), the Rangers are now trying to stretch Scheppers out in AAA. He's yet to throw more than four innings in any of his four starts. In 15 2/3 IP he's allowed 14 hits, 7 ER, K'd 12 and walked four. Scheppers is a power pitcher with a mid 90's fastball and a hard breaking curve, but lacks a 3rd pitch. He's suffered with shoulder problems in the past. Josh Lindblom, SP LA Dodgers AAA Line – 2-1, 6.25 ERA, 49 K Lindblom made a powerful impression during spring training, but his first half of 2010 has been rocky to say the least. In 10 games as a starter, opposing batters are hitting .349. He's given up an unfathomable 80 hits in 51 innings. His GO/AO ratio is 0.84. His last 6 appearances have come in relief, where he's been far more effective. He's allowed six hits and one run in eight relief innings. The Dodgers view him as a starter, but priority numero uno is getting him straightened out. Brandon Erbe, SP Baltimore AAA Line – 0-10, 5.73 ERA, 50 K Consistency has been a problem for Erbe in his young career, but he's been consistently awful in 2010. For a pitcher with his 'stuff' to go 0-10 is hard to believe, but the numbers don't lie. He's given up 86 hits in 70 2/3 innings and his BAA is .294. He's had difficulty getting the ball down in the zone, and thus has given up 11 HR and his GO/AO ratio is 0.75. Now for some good news, he's only allowed three ER in his last ten innings of work... I'll go out on a limb and say he gets a W before the All-Star break. Anthony Slama, RP Minnesota AAA Line – 14 Saves, 1.42 ERA, 49 K The 26 year old Slama is a proven closer at the minor league level. He finished with 14 saves in '07, 25 in '08 and 29 in '09. His strikeout figures have been off the charts, K'ing 110 in 71 innings in '08 and 112 in 81 innings in '09. However, command has been problematic. He walked 40 in '09 and 21 in 44 1/3 innings to this point in 2010. Opposing batters are hitting a rather ludicrous .122 off him this year. If he can harness his control, he'll be in the show-- but likely in middle relief. NOTES Alex Presley, OF Pittsburgh – The diminutive Presley hit .350 in the Eastern League before his call up to AAA. In just his third game with Indianapolis, he hit for the cycle, going five for six with a HR. An eighth round pick in 2006, Presley has never been classified as a major prospect (likely because of his size), but he's making serious waves now. Aaron Poreda, SP San Diego – The 6'6 lefty reliever was promoted to AAA after posting a 2.52 ERA and 1.50 GO/AO ratio in AA. It should be noted that despite those impressive numbers, he did walk 26 batters in 25 innings. In 11 1/3 innings in the PCL he's given up three hits and yet to allow a run. But once again, the seven walks are holding him back. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AAA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: MiLB, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor League Baseball, A, AA, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Yonder Alonso, Chris Carter, Jesus Montero, Josh Bell, Allen Craig, Michael Taylor, Brandon Allen, Daniel Hudson, Tanner Scheppers, Josh Lindblom, Brandon Erbe, Aroldis Chapman, Anthony Slama, Alex Presley, Aaron Poreda, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees  Derek Jeter Ultimately, a players career determines his value come free agency, however a big contract year can draw attention to a player and force a bidding war where a player gets paid more than he would have expected when the season started. Use Danny Tartabull as an example, Tartabull had two great seasons leading up to the off season of 1991/2. One of those great seasons was the 1991 campaign which was parlayed into one of the biggest contracts in baseball(Only $5 million a year, but it was 1992). The following players could benefit from a big second half just like Tartabull. Top of the Class Cliff Lee - Lee would be the #1 starter for most clubs and will be the most sought after pitcher on the market. His season so far has done nothing to change anyone's minds, but a 2nd half collapse could drive the market down. It's highly unlikely that will be the case, Lee will continue to dominate and he'll dramatically increase a teams odds of winning in 2011. Carl Crawford - Like Lee, Crawford will be one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. He posses all of the tools teams need and will be a top of the order fixture for whoever he signs with. So far so good in 2010 where Crawford has continued to do what he does. A big second half would be nothing more than icing on the cake, but rest assured that Crawford knows a big second half will afford him a lot of icing. Adam Dunn - Since 2004, Dunn has only hit less than 40HR once, last year when he hit 38. He'll be 31 when he signs and should have a few more years left to slugg at the same rate. With 17HR in 2010, Dunn is among the best in baseball at hitting the long ball and will get paid like one if he continues to do what he's always done. Honor Roll Paul Konerko - Unlike Dunn, Konerko doesn't have age on his side and will have to fight the nay sayers who expect him to tail off. He's showed a downward trend over the last few years, but he's come alive in his contract year. A revitalized Konerko could demand a hefty salary as long as he doesn't fade toward the end of the season. Jorge de la Rosa - De le Rosa looks to be a late bloomer who could add a lot of value to any rotation. After a magnificent 2009 season, he got started right where he left off this year, but has been on the DL since April because of a tendon issue in his finger. Before going down he was on pace to improve upon 2009, but only time will tell how the rest of the season pans out. Jorge should be back soon and stands the chance to leap frog past a lot of other candidates with a big second half. Perhaps no other pitcher has as much riding on the second half as de le Rosa. Juan Uribe - Uribe has been down this road before, a bad 2008 contract year allowed the San Fransisco Giants to have the upper hand in negotiations. He laid the ground work for some playing time in 2010 with a productive 2009 and with the help of some injuries to others, Uribe found more playing time than most expected. Uribe didn't put this time to waste and has proved to be the Giants most productive hitter this year. The market should be good for an infielder that plays three positions well...if he has a big 2010. Jonny Gomes - Gomes has quietly hit 20 HRs three times in his career even though he's never seen a full season with everyday at bats. Jonny is on pace to see his most ABs in a season and will need to put up his most productive numbers this year to garner a lot of interest this off season. Jorge Cantu - A corner infielder with power is what every team desires, how about a player that can play both corners? Even better... Cantu can do just that and has shown a lot of power from time to time. Although his career numbers may not support as much power as some may think Cantu has, he should fit well in any line up and shows no signs that he isn't due for a monster season. A big 2010 second half would sure help many believe. Rafael Soriano - Soriano found himself buried in middle relief until 2009 where he shined once getting a shot at closing with the Braves. Soriano has improved on his 2009 season and if he can keep getting better, he'll be the best closer(not named Marino Rivera) available. Class Clown John Buck - In April, Buck was just another soon to be free agent catcher. Now as the All Star break approaches, Buck has put himself in position to be held in high regard by many teams. He's approaching career highs Rs, 2Bs, HRs, and RBIs..... and it's not even July. If Buck expects a nice payday, he better keep on keepin' on. Most Popular Derek Jeter - The market for 37 year old Shortstops has never been better. Jeter hasn't shown many signs that he's playing days are past him and if he produces more in the second half, there isn't another Free Agent story that will have more drama. Most would be shocked if Jeter signs with anyone but the Yankees, but what if better offers are out there? Class of 2010 Troy Glaus and Aubrey Huff signed one year deals prior to this season, because teams were unsure how these veterans would hold up in 2010. How ya like me now? Both players have produced quite well this year and if they can improve on their numbers, each should expect a nice pay day this offseason. Which of these contract players will have the greatest fantasy baseball value in the second half of 2010? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter! Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, MLB, Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners, Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, Troy Glaus, Atlanta Braves, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants, John Buck, Toronto Blue Jays, Rafael Soriano, Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins, Jonny Gomes, Cincinnati Reds, Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals, Jorge de la Rosa, Colorado Rockies  Grant Green Player reports from Advanced A & A ball. Deep keeper and dynasty owners circle these names. POSITION PLAYERS Grant Green, SS Oakland Advanced A Line – .320, 5 HR, 30 RBI The A's 2009 first round pick has not disappointed in his first full season of pro ball. A .359 career hitter at USC, his quick adjustments at the plate have been impressive. Lefties are not getting him out, collecting 33 knocks in 76 AB (.434). He's slugging .466 with 18 doubles and three triples. He is red hot in June hitting .381 with three HR and 11 RBI. Grant will turn 23 in September, but his ceiling is still quite high. A quick advance through the ranks seems likely. Engel Beltre, CF Texas Advanced A Line – .326, 5 HR, 32 RBI After hitting .227 in the California League in '09, Beltre has restructured his approach this season. He's raised his BA nearly 100 points and his K rate is way down. He's struck out 29 times in 233 AB (1 per 8 AB). Last year he went down on strikes every 4.6 AB. After hitting .233 in April, he's responded with a .347 May and .436 June. His SB total is down, with 7 swipes in 13 attempts. Perhaps it's finally starting to click for the talented outfielder. Anthony Gose, OF Philadelphia Advanced A Line – .268, 2 HR, 13 RBI Gose has the potential to absolutely wreck a game with his speed. He stole 76 bags in '09 and has 24 this year. His caught stealing totals are alarming, however, being thrown out 19 times in '10. He also has 10 triples. His 72 strikeouts in 272 AB need to be cut down. Gose is still very raw at the plate, but he's shown a willingness to work counts and a take a free pass (23). With his incredible athletic gifts, it's difficult to put a ceiling on this 19 year old. Eric Hosmer, 1B Kansas City Advanced A Line – .356, 3 HR, 42 RBI Hosmer underwent LASIK surgery in the off-season and the 2008 #3 pick has come back a new hitter in '10. He's raised his BA 115 points from the .241 he posted last year. His BB:K ratio is an outstanding 33 to 27. Last season that ratio was 53 to 90, at the exact same level. While he's only connected on 3 dingers, he's still slugging .529, with 24 doubles and 6 triples. The LHH Hosmer is hitting .376 in 93 AB versus LHP, including an 11:10 BB to K ratio. Unlike last season, he's seeing the ball scary well. He's too classy to remain at this level. Brett Jackson, CF Chicago Cubs Advanced A Line – .298, 4 HR, 33 RBI Jackson has begun to light it up. He's batting .333 in June with 2 HR and 17 RBI, and over his last ten he's at .400 with 2 HR and 14 RBI. On the season he's sporting a .471 SLG% with 16 doubles and 7 triples. After drawing 31 BB in '09, he's already up to 42 in '10. His OBP is a robust .408. Jackson has good wheels as well, swiping 12 in 18 tries. Mike Trout, CF LA Angels Class A Line – .370, 6 HR, 35 RBI Trout is putting up video game type numbers. He's slugging .553 with 15 doubles and 7 triples. His OBP is .449 with a 33:39 BB to K ratio. He's hit at least .355 in every month. This after hitting .352 between Rookie ball and A ball last season. He's on absolute tear. And his prowess doesn't end with the bat, he's stolen 34 bases (6 CS) in 66 games. Trout has 21 hits in 50 AB (.420) with RISP. What else does he have to prove in the Midwest League? Aaron Hicks, CF Minnesota Class A Line – .256, 5 HR, 22 RBI The unanimous top prospect in A ball. Hicks possesses all the tools scouts drool over, including a 93-95 MPH fastball, but he chose the route of the position player. The switch hitter is blessed with excellent patience and a feel for the strike zone. He drew 41 BB in 251 AB in '09 and 48 in 238 AB thus far in '10. So despite his pedestrian average, his OBP is .378. He's still a work in progress with the stick, thus his relatively low production numbers. Hicks is unpolished on the base paths as well, being CS 8 times against 6 SB. Patience is a virtue.. Wilmer Flores, SS New York Mets Class A Line – .278, 7 HR, 44 RBI At only 19 years of age, Flores is in his third season in the Mets system. His plate discipline is much improved. After recording a 22:72 BB to K ratio in 2009, he's already drawn 23 walks in 2010. He's flashing more power as he continues to grow into his 6'3 frame. He's driven in 44 runs in 66 games, compared to 36 in 125 games last season. William Myers, C Kansas City Class A Line – .287, 10 HR, 43 RBI Myers is slugging .502 (16 doubles) and has drawn 45 walks for a .408 OBP. Seven of his ten HR have come with runners on base, and he's batting .361 with RISP. His OPS is 1.083 in June and 1.118 over his last ten games. Myers provides speed at the catcher position with 9 thefts. PITCHERS Aaron Miller, SP LA Dodgers Advanced A Line – 2-4, 2.77 ERA, 75 K On the same minor league club with arms Ethan Martin and Nathan Eovaldi, Miller is taking center stage. In 74 2/3 innings he's allowed merely 53 hits and opponents are hitting .201 against him. A left handed pitcher, he's held RHH hitters to a .190 mark. Command a bit shaky, issuing 35 free passes. Walked six in five innings on June 9th. He features a fastball that cuts in on right handers and a sharp slider. Terrific athlete, was projected as an OF out of High School. Julio Teheran, SP Atlanta Advanced A Line – 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 49 K The 19-year old Teheran has absolutely blown away the SAL and Carolina Leagues. In 78 1/3 combined innings he's allowed just 11 ER. In 39 innings in '10, he's given up 31 hits, walked seven and struck out 49. He's pitching to a 1.38 ERA, and has surrendered one run or less in four of six GS. In his last start, on June 16th, he went seven innings allowing two hits, two BB and striking out 12. Fragility and stamina have been concerns with his 150 pound frame. The ball explodes out of his hand, topping out at 98 MPH. Matt Moore, SP Tampa Bay Advanced A Line – 3-7, 5.13 ERA, 98 K Moore is having an interesting 2010 campaign. He's given up 69 hits in 73 2/3 innings, and struck out a staggering 98 batters. The problem is he's lost seven games and his ERA is over five. Why? Look no further then the base on ball. Moore has walked 40 batters, or one batter every 1.8 innings. Success is difficult to come by when you're constantly in the stretch. Moore walked 70 in 123 innings in '09, so this is not foreign territory. If he wants to move up the chain, he needs to start throwing strikes. Shelby Miller, SP St. Louis Class A Line – 1-3, 4.79 ERA, 56 K The Cards 2009 first round selection has four potentially plus pitches, but he needs refinement. When Miller makes mistakes they're getting hit (44 hits in 41 1/3), but when he makes his pitches A ball hitters won't get a sniff (56 K). His 1.37 GO/AO ratio and two HR allowed are encouraging. His 15 BB (one every 2.7 innings) is not. Right handed batters are hitting Miller at a .290 clip. Tyler Matzek, SP Colorado Class A Line – 0-0, 2.28 ERA, 27 K The Rockies 11th overall pick in 2009 has made a powerful impression in his first five professional starts. In 23 2/3 innings, the left hander has given up 17 hits and opposing batters are hitting .207 against him (LHH .150). His fastball sits in the mid 90's. He's been touted for his pitching intelligence at a young age and should be a quick riser. Matzek's command has been shaky early on (16 BB). Kyle Heckathorn, SP Milwaukee Class A Line – 5-4, 2.34 ERA, 55 K After a rough 6.04 ERA in six Pioneer League starts in '09, Heckathorn has been dazzling this season. In nine GS, he's worked to a 2.19 ERA in 53 1/3 innings, allowing 44 hits and walking just 11. The 6'6 right hander is holding lefties to a .188 average, and all batters to a .216 mark. His GO/AO ratio is a spectacular 2.59 as a starter thanks to a good sinking fastball. NOTES Jason Kipnis, 2B Cleveland – Kipnis was promoted to AA after posting a .300, 6 HR, 31 RBI line at the Advanced A Carolina League. He’s hitting .355 with a 1.090 OPS in eight games. Tyler Chatwood, SP LA Angels – Chatwood recorded an 8-3 mark with a 1.77 ERA in 13 California League starts. His GO/AO ratio was 2.93. In his first AA start he was bombed for eight hits and six runs in 2 2/3 innings. Arodys Vizcaino, SP Atlanta – The 19 year old from the Dominican Republic was promoted from the SAL, where he went 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, to Advanced A ball. In two starts since the step up in competition, he’s lasted 8 2/3 combined innings, allowing 13 hits, six ER, striking out seven and walking three. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on A ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, A Ball, Minor Leagues, The Farm Report, Grant Green, Engel Beltre, Anthony Gose, Eric Hosmer, Brett Jackson, Mike Trout, Aaron Hicks, Wilmer Flores, William Myers, Aaron Miller, Julio Teheran, Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Tyler Matzek, Kyle Heckathorn, Jason Kipnis, Tyler Chatwood, Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics  Madison Bumgarner Brett Wallace 1B TOR, August 26, 1986 - Traded to Oakland for Matt Holiday and then swapped for Michael Taylor after the Roy Halladay deal, Wallace has hit 27 HRs since being promoted to AAA last year. Coming up in the Cardinals system, Wallace figured to play 3B. But the Blue Jays have depth at 3B, so he's played 1B exclusively this year. Lyle Overbay stands directly in his way and he's being paid almost $8 million. If Wallace does get the call it will be at 1B or DH, so he's call will depend on the play of Overbay and Adam Lind. Although neither player has put up amazing numbers, it's unclear if the organization is ready to make a move. Madison Bumgarner P SF, August 1, 1989 - The Giants came into camp this spring and slotted the 10th pick of the 2007 draft into the 5th rotation spot, by the time season started, Bumgarner was in AAA Fresno. There was a lot published about his dip in velocity and his personal issues he dealt with in the off-season, but that's all behind us now. Since April 19th Bumgarner has been brilliant including a 0.94 ERA in the month of May. He had one hiccup in June which included an ejection and a 3 game suspension that brought back some of the personality concerns. The Giants put Todd Wellemeyer on the DL recently, but they used their roster move to add Joe Martinez instead of calling up Bumgarner. The Giants plan on skipping the 5th spot next time around to give Wellemeyer a chance to come off the DL. If Wellemeyer can't come off the DL, Bumgarner could get the call this month. Brandon Allen 1B ARI, Feb 12, 1986 - Late last year the Diamondbacks traded away one of their best relievers in Tony Pena for 1B prospect, Allen. He made a big splash in AAA Reno and found a lot of playing time with the Diamondbacks late last year. His numbers were not good and the organization signed 1B Adam LaRoche to a 1 year deal in the offseason. Allen started the year in AAA and took a while to get going. But in the last few weeks he has performed quite well. His BB/K rate is very encouraging for someone with the power of Allen. He is seeing the ball well and stands to get a look with the big league club soon. With the trade of Conor Jackson and quotes from management, the Diamondbacks will be part of quite the fire-sale this year. LaRoche would make for a nice fit for many clubs and should be moved very soon. With that move, Allen should see the majority of the time at 1B One last player to keep an eye on is Dayan Viciedo who was just called up by the White Sox. The 21 year old Cuban defector is going to have to earn his playing time, but he has a lot of upside. His career BB and K rates need to improve, but if he produces when he plays he could be the White Sox 3B for the next 10 years. Which of these do you think has the greatest fantasy baseball value in 2010? 2011? Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Article by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for James' excellent fantasy insight and analysis. Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, James Weston, MLB, Brett Wallace, Toronto Blue Jays, Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, Brandon Allen, Arizona Diamondbacks, Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox, Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson, Tony Pena, Todd Wellemeyer  Simon Castro Key player notes from AA's Eastern, Southern and Texas Leagues. Who's moving on up and who's failing to distinguish themselves? POSITION PLAYERS Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia AA Line - .313, 10 HR 37 RBI The 6'5 phenom has all the tools. In his first full season of Eastern League ball, Brown is making mince meat of opposing pitching. His power stroke continues to develop, with 27 XBH and a .562 SLG %. He's shown his patience and plate discipline drawing 25 BB in 201 plate appearances. He stole 23 bases between A & AA in 2009, and has swiped 10 bags in 15 attempts in 2010. Left handed pitching has not altered his approach, hitting them to the tune of .314 in 51 AB. On almost any other team, especially one with question marks in the outfield, he'd already be in the show. Don't count on the Phillies replacing Raul Ibanez any time soon. Dee Gordon, SS LA Dodgers AA Line - .283, 2 HR, 18 RBI Speed, speed and more speed. After stealing 73 bases in the Midwest League (A) last season, Gordon hasn't lost stride in '10. He's already notched 25 SB in 58 games, but has been caught ten times. On the downside, he's not drawing enough walks for a leadoff man, just 12 (.329 OBP). With his wheels, any BB can turn into a triple. Weighing in at only 150 pounds, there's not much pop there yet, but he has knocked in seven runs in his last 10 games. Gordon, a LHH, is batting just .185 in 81 at bats against LHP. Overall, he's slowed down considerably since a .345 April. Brett Lawrie, 2B Milwaukee AA Line - .285, 5 HR, 32 RBI #16 pick in 2008 has been a gap hitting machine. In addition to his five jacks, Lawrie has 15 doubles and nine triples. He had 18 doubles and six triples in all of 2009 (424 AB). He's raising his level as the summer heats up, hitting .362 in June with 17 knocks in his last ten games. In 66 at bats with RISP, he's hitting .333. If his triples total is any indication, he likes to run — 12 stolen bases as well. Lawrie's 16:49 BB to K ratio against RHP is worrisome. Josh Vitters, 3B Chicago Cubs AA Line - .229, 1 HR, 10 RBI The promotion to AA has not been particularly kind to 2007's #3 overall selection. Vitters hit .291 in 110 AB in the Florida State League, but has hit a meager .229 in 96 AB in the Southern League. He's drawn three walks and is slugging .302. Patience has been a major obstacle for Vitters, failing to crack the 13 walk plateau in his first three minor league seasons. Looking at it from that perspective, his combined BB total of 11 is actually encouraging. Seven of his 22 hits at AA have come with RISP (.304). Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle AA Line - .251, 1 HR, 19 RBI Ackley's stat line may not blow your socks off, but after hitting .147 during April in his first month of pro ball, his numbers are on the incline. He hit .303 in May and .344 in the first half of June. His eye at the plate has been remarkable. His walk total of 43 almost matches his hit total of 49. So despite his struggles, he has not lost the plot or pressed the issue. Ackley will make an ideal number two hitter, but don't expect big HR totals. 13 of his hits are doubles, using both gaps to his advantage. Mike Moustakas, 3B Kansas City AA Line - .339, 14 HR, 54 RBI Moustakas has been a dynamic run producer in the Texas League. He's averaging 1.2 RBI per game, thanks in large part to a .429 BA with RISP (24 hits in 56 AB). 11 of his 14 jacks have come with runners on base. His freakish numbers don't end there. He has a .416 OBP and .678 SLG %. Yes, that's a 1.094 OPS. After a .393 May, he's at a pedestrian .250 in June. Still, in 12 June games he's brought in 13 runs. Despite his relative domination, Moustakas will not see major league action in 2010. Logan Forsythe, 3B San Diego AA Line - .274, 1 HR, 12 RBI Another BB machine. In 28 games and 95 plate appearances, Forsythe has walked 24 times. Much like Ackley, his BB total almost matches his hit total of 26. This is not foreign territory for Forsythe, who drew 102 walks between A & AA in '09. He missed almost the entire month of May with a broken hand, and is still working to get his stroke back. Forsythe is a definite call up option for the Padres, who could sorely use his polished bat. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B Cleveland AA Line - .292, 5 HR, 23 RBI After hitting 22 HR with 92 RBI in combined action last season, Chisenhall has found his power stroke in '10. He hit just a single homer with nine RBI in his first 126 AB, but has quickly jacked four homers and knocked in 14 in 42 June at bats. His double total of three is weak. PITCHERS Tim Alderson, SP Pittsburgh AA Line - 5-2, 4.29 ERA, 40 K The performance of the 6'6 right hander was underwhelming in 2009, and the same can be said thus far in 2010. He closed '09 with a 10-3 mark, but allowed 146 hits in 137 1/3 innings, and struck out only 84. In 65 innings in '10, he's given up 73 hits and has struck out 40. His GO/AO ratio is an improved 1.43, but opposing batters are seeing him too well, hitting .292. His last four starts have been extremely sharp: 25 innings, 20 hits and four ER. The Buccos just called up Brad Lincoln, so maybe they'll opt for a full bore youth movement. Alderson is just 21, however, and likely needs more seasoning. Kyle Gibson, SP Minnesota AA Line - 3-2, 3.65 ERA, 31 K The former Missouri Tiger was absolutely rolling and appeared on the fast track to the bigs. Gibson was 3-0 in May with a 1.37 ERA, and getting a sick 3.23 GO/AO. Queue the reality check. In his last two outings Gibson has gone 10 2/3 innings, allowing 15 hits and 11 ER. In his latest start on June 11th, he recorded just three ground-outs on balls put in play (0.38 ratio). Tight slider is his ground ball pitch. Jake McGee, SP Tampa Bay AA Line - 2-4, 3.65 ERA, 51 K The Rays have brought McGee along slowly following Tommy John surgery. His May 28th start was a turning point: 7 innings, the deepest he's gone into a game this season, giving up 5 hits and zero ER, walking one and striking out 11. He's allowed only one ER in his last four starts, spanning 23 2/3 innings. McGee has coughed up only two HR in 49 1/3 this season. He's a year away from contributing at the major league level, and even then his path is firmly blockaded. Simon Castro, SP Padres AA Line - 4-2, 2.48 ERA, 52 K Squaring up Castro's pitches has been an immensely arduous task. The Texas League is hitting a mere .197 against him. Righties are having an even tougher time at .164. After a 0.81 GO/AO ratio in '09, he's lived on the ground in '10 with a 1.69 ratio. Only three balls have left the park in 65 1/3 innings. Castro possesses a 'swinging gate' motion, which can definitely disrupt a hitter's timing. If the Padres suffer an injury in the rotation, he'd get the first call. Martin Perez, SP Texas AA Line - 2-3, 5.32 ERA, 47 K The 19-year old Perez has turned heads in the Rangers system, but is currently suffering through the growing pains. His WHIP is far too high at 1.69. He walked just 38 in 114 2/3 innings in AA last season, but has already given out 27 free passes in 45 2/3 innings this year. His strikeout and ground ball (1.47) rates show the promise of what lies ahead. The latest rumor has the Rangers, of all teams, interested in Roy Oswalt. If so, it could very well take an arm like Perez to acquire him. Zach Britton, SP Baltimore AA Line - 6-3, 2.84 ERA, 55 K The O's are a pitiful bunch right now, but they sure have a plethora of young pitching. Britton went 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA during the month of May, with a (don't adjust your monitor) 4.27 GO/AO ratio. He allowed 27 hits in 34 2/3 innings, K'ing 24. He's come out on top in both of his June starts as well, allowing one run in 13 1/3. Britton's ground ball success is not an aberration: In 147 1/3 innings of A ball in 2008 he finished with 2.81 GO/AO, and in 140 innings of Advanced A his ratio was 3.38. Don't panic Oriole fans, he's not related to former O Chris Britton. NOTES Wilkin Ramirez, OF Detroit- Ramirez was promoted to AAA on June 8. His immense power, 15 HR in 54 games, got him the call. Not his .243 BA or 82 K's in 210 AB. Kyle Russell, OF LA Dodgers- Russell got the promotion to AA after tearing through the California League, hitting .354 with 16 HR and 53 RBI in 53 games. His OPS was a 1.140. It's safe to say the soon to be 24 year old warranted an upgrade in competition. Phillippe Aumont, SP Philadelphia- After getting lit up in 11 starts at AA, Aumont was demoted to the Florida State League. He was 1-6 with a 7.43 ERA, and allowed 38 BB in 49 2/3 innings. In his first A ball appearance he went 2/3 of an inning, giving up 3 hits and 5 runs, walking 4 in the process. There is much work to be done.. Jemile Weeks, 2B Oakland, Weeks has been out since May 6th with a hip injury. He was hitting .304 with 2 HR, 3 triples, 7 doubles and 13 RBI prior to being disabled. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: MiLB, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor League Baseball, A, AA, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Domonic Brown, Dee Gordon, Brett Lawrie, Josh Vitters, Dustin Ackley, Mike Moustakas, Logan Forsythe, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tim Alderson, Kyle Gibson, Jake McGee, Simon Castro, Martin Perez, Zach Britton, Wilkin Ramirez, Kyle Russell, Phillippe Aumont, Jemile Weeks, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Florida State League, This week's roundtable question is: The Fantasy Fix asked five of the top & up-and-coming Fantasy Experts out there the following question: As we approach the 2010 All-Star Break who will you be targeting to trade for as a buy-low candidate or sleeper? Name one 1 batter and 1 pitcher that will make a big 180 for the 2nd half. Let's hear some realistic and unique options. Batter: Carlos Pena, 1B, TB My what a disaster Pena's season has been, at least up until his barrage of home runs last week. Trend or slight uptick? I say it should be more trend than mirage. If you've been paying attention, you already know he is streaky (see last week for example). But what you might not see is that he can't possibly continue to be as horrible as he was in the early going. Let's look at some numbers to date (valid through Wednesday June 9, 2010): BABIP = .200 (.250 in 2009, .283 in career) Walk Rate = 13.4% (15.3% in 2009, 13.3% in career) GB% = 44.1% (29.0% in 2009, 36.2% in career) FB% = 44.9% (54.1% in 2009, 45.7% in career) LD% = 11.0% (16.8% in 2009, 18.0% in career) What does this all mean? Well, since his strikeout rate is right on par with previous performances, it explains a lot. First, his BABIP indicates that he has been very unlucky on batted balls into play. As compared to career numbers, he could be batting up to 50 points above his current .184 on luck alone. A deeper look at his GB/FB/LD split shows that he is hitting the ball weakly into the infield a ton this year (GB% is a career high and LD% is a career low for him in seasons of 100+ AB). Even a speed demon like Juan Pierre would have trouble getting on base with those splits. The root cause of those symptoms is his Chase Percentage (O-Swing%), or how many pitches outside of the strike zone he is hacking at, which sits at 31.2% (also a career high for seasons of 100+AB). That may be a result of pitchers trying to keep him off balance by throwing more changeups and cutters, rather than fastballs which he can lace into the stands. Since his walk rate is holding steady as compared to career averages, I say it is only a matter of time before Pena settles down and adjusts to the pitching mix. Buy now and get the good part of his season stats on your roster. Pitcher: Jason Hammel, SP, COL The Rockies have really improved their rotation over the past few years, and the most under-appreciated member of the starting cast is Jason Hammel. Ignore the ERA he has posted to date, because much of that damage was done back when he was battling a nagging groin injury, the same one that sent him to the DL for a couple of weeks in early May. Now that he is back and healthy, I see nothing but sunny skies ahead. Hammel actually pitched very well in 2009, despite finishing with a 4.33 ERA. If you look deeper at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), or what he would have done with even luck and quality fielding across the board, he should have finished with an ERA of 3.71. Curiously enough, his FIP to date is 3.73, almost identical to what he posted last season. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has also fixed problems with gopheritis (0.87 HR/9 over that span, 1.07 in career) and free passes (BB/9 in the 2.55 range, 3.14 in career). For the third stright year, Hammel is forcing groundballs at least 46% of the time a batter makes contact, and he has kept his FB% right around 30%. You can attribute some of this to experience and the rest to his move away from changeups (11.2%, 9.5%, and 5.6% in 2008/2009/2010 to date) to more of a focus on curve balls (10.0%, 15.6%, 16.9%). Whatever the reason, Jason Hammel has been pitching like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 39 starts now, so it's time to give the kid his due. The best part is that he can be had for a waiver claim in the majority of leagues, so the price is most certainly right!  Tommy Landry Co-founder of RotoExperts.com, has a long track record of success in entrepreneurship, marketing, and the fantasy sports business. He now maintains multiple web properties, Return On Now (http://ReturnOnNow.com/) focused on social media, marketing, entrepreneurship, and sports; and RotoTommy's Fantasy Sports (http://RotoTommy.posterous.com) focused strictly on fantasy sports analysis and strategy. You can also join in the conversation with him on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/Tommy_Landry ___________________________________________________________________ Batter: Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR Hill was a guy I earned a lot of money on last year. The problem is that I got him for $1 in keeper leagues so there was no way I could let him go. Knowing this, I knew he was a classic stay away guy in 2010 because of the overachievement. What killed Hill was the hamstring injury right off the bat. Some of Hill’s fantasy #’s are very ugly and scream stay away. But if you dig deeper and look at why Hill has been so bad this year here is what you will find: • Contact Rate 83% (only a matter of time before they become base hits) • Walk rate is up from 5.7% to 11.7% (very good indicator of improved patience) • BABIP is .178 vs. .288 last year (terrible luck) • BA is .188 vs. .286 last year (BABIP and BA correlation) • FB % up to 49% vs. 41% last year 2B is very deep in the American League and in the majors overall. Hill could be a guy you use at UTIL/MI and great insurance. I think right now is the perfect time to get Hill and you can still get him very cheap. Buy now and speculate that his 2nd half numbers turn around. Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR It feels like Morrow has been around for 10 years and every year we wait for the breakout. He never got a true shot to settle into a rotation spot with Seattle and then was dealt to Toronto in the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay deal. Going with pitchers in the AL East is always a tough choice, but again like Hill there are some underliers that show me Morrow could be on his way to truly developing into that fantasy relevant pitcher. • K/9 10.41 – always love guys who get the k’s • .341 BABIP – this number is bound to settle in at .290.-.300 ◦ June has a .254 BABIP • 5.48 ERA but XERA 3.53 • 4.52 BB/9 – this # has to come down for Morrow to start being a good pitcher ◦ June has a 1.29 BB/9 I recently added Morrow in 2 leagues that have deep pitching requirements and I love the upside. In the past guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa have had similar profiles and finally broke through.  Michael Rathburn Fantasy Baseball writer for MidWestSportsFans.com and www.aroundthecooler.com. Follow Michael at http://twitter.com/cooler_guy ___________________________________________________________________ Batter: Adam Lind, OF, TOR Highly touted coming into this year (average draft position, 3rd or 4th round) and coming off a monster season that finally saw him put his potential to good use, Lind has so far had a horrendous start to 2010. .209 average, 8 homeruns, a paltry 26 runs and 31 rbi - all this for the team leading the majors in home runs - and just 49 hits. Yet, if you look deeper, some of his stats belie how atrocious he has been. Yes, he is chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than last year. Yes, he is striking out a slightly higher rate than last year. Yes, he has shown an alarming drop in power to center field. BUT. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .247, or nearly 60 points below his career BABIP of .305. That's right - SIXTY points. Aside from his stint with the Jays in 2007, when he proved he was not yet ready for the big time, he has never had a BABIP lower than .317. In the minors his BABIP routinely reached the .360s and higher. I don't expect Lind to hit 25 home runs the rest of the season, but from this point forward I expect that as his luck changes, so do his stats, and for the better. Pitcher: Jake Peavy, SP, CHW People forget that he's still not so far removed from major arm surgery, and had to deal with switching leagues, going from a great pitcher's park to one that's horrible, and learn a whole new set of hitters. I think he'll improve because we've seen flashes - his k/9, bb/9 and GB% (ground ball percentage) have improved month by month this season, and he is still averaging 7.5 K's per 9 innings this year. Plus, his LOB% is the lowest of his career and his BABIP Is close to the highest - not a good combination to have. I expect, though, that as his luck starts changing and he leaves more runners on, his K rate will continue to rise, his ERA will fall and he will pitch deeper into games and help himself to more wins.  Jesse Mendelson is Partner and Senior Writer for www.fantasybaseball101.com For more up-to-the-minute analysis, trade mediation, roster evaluation, weekly tip, chats, and more, make sure to check out www.fantasybaseball101.com and follow us on Twitter on @fb101. ___________________________________________________________________ Batter: Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW Gordon Beckam has basically played like garbage and polluted the fantasy landscape thus far. His .206 Batting Average and one Home Run have left a single tear welling in the eye of his owners. Some people have a deep abiding respect for the natural beauty that was once this highly touted prospect; and some people don’t. Gordo is currently owned in only 38% of Yahoo! leagues. If he isn’t a free agent in your league, his recent 102 At Bat streak without an Extra Base Hit should make him a cheap buy. What many people don’t realize is that Beckham has been plagued a .250 BABIP. His 15.5% Line Drive and 51% Ground Ball Percentages suggest this number should be higher. The league average for BABIP is .298. Beckham has also been unlucky with a 1.9% Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage. The league average for HR/FB% is around 10-11%. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft is much too talented to continue hitting this poorly. The White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, sat down with Gordon and told him to go back to his aggressive approach at the plate and he has responded well. Since the two had a pow-wow, Beckham has strung together a 4 game hit streak, going 4 for 13 with 3 doubles in the process. Last season Beckham hit 14 HR and stole 7 bases in 103 games, his price won’t be any lower than it is now. If you need some cheap, productive help at the 2B position, look no further. Pitcher: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD Chad Billingsley is a well known gunslinger. Tickets to Buffalo Billingsley’s Wild NL West Show could be expensive unless you can find an owner who is fed up with his 1.40 WHIP. Billingsley currently ranks 84th among all SP eligible pitchers on Yahoo! and his overall rank of 289 may help you acquire his services at a reasonable price. Chad’s ugly WHIP is not the result of him walking too many batters, he has actually reduced his walk rate from 3.94 BB/9 down to 3.17 BB/9. The issue is his .332 BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .308 and he is actually giving up less Line Drives this year than he has in the past (17.4 LD%). His 1.40 WHIP should be considered bad luck, not bad pitching. He is still striking out eight batters per nine and inducing a good number of ground balls (47.8%, 1.38 GB/FB) so I would also consider his 69.2% Strand Rate to be unlucky. His career average for LOB% is 75.4%. His owners may believe that Billingsley is pitching his worst ball in the past four years, but all this adds up for me to believe that Billingsley should be posting the best numbers of his career when it comes to ERA and WHIP. Look for a big turnaround in the second half of the season.  Andrew Holm (aka MDS) is the brainchild behind http://milliondollarsleeper.com. Follow Andrew on twitter at http://twitter.com/andrewakamds ___________________________________________________________________ Batter: Aramis Ramirez , 3B, CHC Aramis Ramirez's season has been a disaster of epic proportions. The once mighty run producer has seen his numbers washed away by a tsunami of strikeouts and lazy fly balls. By some measures, he's been the worst regular position player in all of baseball. Now on the 15-day DL due to a strained thumb, he also hasn't done much to shed the “injury-prone” label that he's earned over the past few years. Since A-Ram's never had a stretch this bad, I'm willing to assume that the thumb problem has exacerbated his usual slow start. Sure, he's on the downside of his career, but he's about to turn 32, not 37. Just last year, he put up a .317 BA with 15 HR and 65 RBI despite playing in just 82 games. A-Ram's always been a second-half hitter (second half OPS of .870 vs. .807 in the first half), and has always thrived at Wrigley Field (career .918 OPS). If he comes back healthy for the hot summer months at Wrigley, he should put up a .285+ BA and approach 15 HR and 50 RBI in the second half. That should be enough to outperform popular third-sackers like Jose Bautista, Scott Rolen, Casey McGeehee, Chase Headley, Placido Polanco, Alberto Callaspo, Juan Uribe, Ty Wigginton, and David Freese. See if you can lowball his frustrated owner and reap the benefits. Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA After Saturday night's shelling in Tampa Bay, Ricky Nolasco's ERA stands at 5.05 and his strikeout rate is down to 6.6 per 9 innings. That's a bitter pill to swallow for fantasy owners who looked past his bloated 2009 ERA and drafted him 20th among starting pitchers in ESPN leagues. Maybe this is deja vu all over again, as Ricky was awful in the first part of 2009, when he was rocked over his first nine starts to the tune of a 9.07 ERA. He turned his season around after a two-week stint in the minors, and was a true ace over his last 22 starts, with a 3.82 ERA and an elite 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. Unless there's a secret injury, we might just be seeing a mini-repeat of 2009. He's still in his prime and has shown the ability to lose his mechanics for a stretch and then bounce back. Perhaps he's turning out to be a second-half pitcher (he also pitched better in the second half of 2008). See if you can pry him loose from a frustrated owner, and hope that history repeats itself.  Follow Alex Shear on Twitter (@rotosleeperz) and check out his rarely updated blog at http://rotosleeperz.blogspot.com ___________________________________________________________________ Batter: Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA 2009 was Chone’s BIG contract year, and boy did he not disappoint. Figgins finished the year with 114 Runs, 101 Walks, 42 SBs, & .298 BA from the leadoff spot. Getting himself a 4 year $36 million contract, and a new city (Seattle) to boot. Now you’d expect an Allstar caliber player like Chone Figgins to handle a move to a new team like a pro, but after a forgeable first half we are left with some questions. Let’s take a look at where we are and where it has gone wrong: In his first 6 full seasons (2004-2009) Chone averaged: 44 SBs, 92.7 Runs, 52.2 RBIs, 162 Hits, .291 AVG Now for a prototypical leadoff hitter these numbers are some of the tops in the sport. One of the things I preach the most is that baseball is a game of averages. If you look back over 5 years certain trends will appear for the better players. Now I understand that Chone is facing some different circumstances than before; batting now in the 2 hole (behind Ichiro), & becoming an everyday second baseman. But you can expect a monster 2nd half as he becomes more comfortable with his roles, teammates, and city. Bottom Line 2nd Half Expectations Current 2010 1st Half: ABs- 220, BA -.227, Hits – 50, RBIs -16 Runs – 26, SB – 13 Projected 2nd Half: ABs – 400, BA - .300, Hits – 120, RBIs – 30, Runs – 75, SB - 25 Pitcher: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW It's been a rough, and altogether puzzling first half for White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. His staggering 6.18 ERA is the 2nd highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 50 IP. In 206 1/3 innings in 2008 he allowed 190 hits. In 193 innings in 2009 he allowed 178 hits. Through 67 innings of work in 2010, he's allowed 84 hits. The usually tough to square up Floyd is finding too many barrels. What's gone wrong: Right handed hitters are batting .306 against Floyd. The same RHH he held to a .256 clip in '09 and .226 in '08. When he gets himself into a jam, he's not escaping free of harm. He's allowed 26 ER in RISP w/2 out situations through 12 starts, compared to 35 ER all of last season. His LOB% is a dismal 62.6%. His BAA on balls put in play (BABIP) is .369, an obscenely high frequency of success for opposing hitters. Compare that figure to .268 in '08 and .292 in '09. Floyd is throwing more changeups and less curveballs, a recipe that doesn't seem to be paying dividends. Why things just don't add up: He's averaging 7.66 K/9 innings, the highest figure of his career. He's only allowed 7 HR, or 0.94 HR/9, his lowest gopher ball rate at the major league level. His ground ball rate of 46.6% is also the highest he's ever produced. His average fastball velocity has been 92.1 MPH, over a mile per hour higher (90.9) than he threw in his 17 win campaign in 2008. Despite his abysmal numbers, there is reason for optimism. Floyd has delivered only 4 quality starts all season, and 3 of those QS came in his last 4 outings. In those 3 QS he K'd 20 against only 5 BB in 19 1/3 innings. He did throw in a 2 2/3 6 ER disaster in between those starts, but we're trying to accentuate the positive. His line drive % is down, so eventually those groundballs with eyes will find some gloves. With a bit of good fortune and improved run prevention in RISP situations, Floyd's numbers should slowly creep back towards his traditional pitching line. He makes for a great buy low option (if he's not on the waiver wire) and should be solid piece for fantasy rotations in the second half.  Pitcher written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Follow Adam here weekly or on twitter http://twitter.com/adamganeles. Batter written by DP (aka Fantasy Mechanic) for The Fantasy Fix, there's a reason why he wins championships every year. Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Sports Blog, The Fantasy Fix, All-Star Game, All-Star Break, Carlos Pena, Aaron Hill, Brandon Morrow, Jason Hammel, Gordon Beckham, Chad Billingsley, Aramis Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco, Chone Figgins, Gavin Floyd, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins, Tommy Landry, Rotoexperts.com, Michael Rathburn, Midwestsportsfan.com, Andrew Holm, milliondollarsleeper.com, Alex Shear, rotosleeperz, Jesse Mendelson, fantasybaseball101.com The Fantasy Fix's AAA Farm Report 06/06/2010
 Madison Bumgarner Key player notes from AAA's International and Pacific Coast Leagues. Who's moving on up and who's failing to distinguish themselves? POSITION PLAYERS Michael Brantley , OF Cleveland- AAA Line .281, 1 HR, 11 RBI With Grady Sizemore sidelined for the year following knee surgery, a spot appears to have opened up for Brantley. But where has Brantley's speed gone? After stealing 46 bases in 116 games at AAA Columbus in 2009, he's swiped only 5 bags in 36 games in 2010. He's not even attempting to run, only being caught twice. It should also be noted that he didn't attempt a stolen bases in 9 games with the big club earlier this season. Brantley hit .313/0/11 in '09 in 112 major league AB, and .156/0/3 in 32 AB in '10 before his demotion. Pedro Alvarez , 3B Pittsburgh- AAA line .278, 11 HR, 47 RBI Alvarez, the Buccos #2 overall pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, is showing serious pop at the highest minor league level. He's compiled 12 doubles, 3 triples and 11 HR for a .527 SLG %. After struggling early on against left-handed pitching, Alvarez has picked up the pace. His .286 BA in 56 AB against LHP now sits higher than .275 BA in 149 AB versus RHP. He can't be too far from the majors with Andy LaRoche and his .317 OBP and .349 SLG in his path. There's also a possibility Garret Jones will shift to RF and Alvarez will move across the diamond to 1B. Todd Frazier , 1B Cincinnati- AAA line .194, 7 HR, 19 RBI Talk about struggling with the stick.. Frazier is in a rough place right now. After hitting .292/16/77 in AAA Louisville in 2009, he has just 33 hits and a .266 OBP through 47 games in 2010. The Reds have moved Frazier all over the field defensively, and it could be taking it's toll on his overall game. They may be better suited keeping him in one spot and letting him focus on his ticket to the bigs, his swing. Desmond Jennings , CF Tampa Bay- AAA Line .236 0 HR 6 RBI Jennings missed much of April with a left wrist injury and has not been himself since returning. Jennings numbers are dramatically down from 2009 when he hit .318/11/62 for AAA Durham. In his last 10 games Jennings is batting .175 (7 for 40) with 1 RBI, 11 K and 1 SB. He has been extremely effective on the base paths on the season, stealing 12 while being caught only once. He swiped 52 bags in 59 attempts in '09. Jennings is viewed as the Rays top offensive prospect, but will need to pick up his production to reach the majors. Jason Castro , C Houston- AAA Line .279, 1 HR, 18 RBI Castro's best attribute has been his eye at the plate. He's walked 31 times against just 24 K's for an OBP of .396. However, the pop, in the hitter friendly PCL nonetheless, is sorely missing. He has 1 HR and 7 XBH in 165 AB, and is slugging an unimpressive .333. Castro has done his best work with RISP, hitting .326 and driving in 15 of his 18 runs. Logan Morrison , 1B Florida- AAA Line .300, 3 HR, 17 RBI Gaby Sanchez has been adequate at 1B for the Marlins, but he can't hold off Morrison for long. In 25 games with AAA New Orleans, Morrison is sporting a .400 OBP and .544 SLG. His BB/K ratio is 16/13. In 24 AB with RISP he's raking to the tune of .458. He's also displayed solid top end speed notching 3 triples to go along with his 7 doubles. PITCHERS Jake Arrieta , SP Baltimore- AAA line 6-2, 1.85 ERA, 64 K The O's top pitching prospect is rolling right along in 2010, owning the top ERA in the International League. Opponents are hitting a meager .189 against him, and he's getting 1.43 ground outs to air outs. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 22 innings, allowing 16 hits, 2 ER and striking out 23. Arrieta was scratched from his June 5 start and could be headed to the big club imminently. Snatch him up while you can! Jeremy Hellickson, SP Tampa Bay- AAA Line 8-2, 2.28 ERA, 71 K The power pitching Hellickson leads the AAA IL with 8 wins. He's been real stingy on the mound, not yielding a run in 4 of his last 5 starts. In those 4 starts he's pitched 27 innings, allowed 16 hits and K'd 27. With Wade Davis' ERA now over 5, will Hellickson get the call? Carlos Carrasco , SP Cleveland- AAA Line: 4-2, 4.68 ERA, 46 K Now at 23 years of age, Carrasco has still failed to live up to the hype. Prior to being dealt to the Indians, Carrasco made 20 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley in 2009, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He finished the season strong for AAA Columbus winning 5 of 6 starts with a .319 ERA and allowing only 31 hits in 42 1/3 innings. He has taken a step back once again in early in 2010. He's given up 64 hits in 59 2/3 innings while striking out only 46. Opponents are hitting a comfortable .282 against him, and right handed hitters are hitting .313. On a positive note, Carrasco is getting ground balls with a 1.21 GO/AO ratio. Madison Bumgarner , SP San Francisco- AAA Line: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 43 K As Todd Wellemeyer continues to get shelled, a logical question arises: where is Madison Bumgarner? The Giants top farmhand has been sharp since two rough starts to open the AAA season, albeit, not in dominating fashion. He's allowed 66 hits in 62 2/3 innings of work and struck out only 43. Nevertheless, Bumgarner's been extremely effective at forcing opponents to pound the ball into the ground. For example: In his May 23rd start vs. Nashville he recorded 14 outs on balls put in play. 12 were recorded on the ground. Despite giving up his 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings in that start, he maneuvered his way through the jams without conceding an earned run. WHERE'D THEY GO? Chris Davis, 1B Texas- Davis is hitting .313 with 5 HR and 31 RBI for AAA Oklahoma City in the PCL. He's still striking out too much with a 13/37 BB/K ratio. Alex Gordon , OF Kansas City- Gordon has been killing the ball in 31 games for AAA Omaha in the PCL. He's batting .371 with 9 HR and 26 RBI. His OBP is a ridiculous .510 and his SLG % is an equally preposterous figure at .662. Keep in mind, Royals GM Dayton Moore said it is unlikely that Gordon will be called up for the remainder of 2010. Chris Johnson , 3B Houston- Johnson is tearing the cover off the ball for AAA Round Rock: .330, 6 HR and 26 RBI. However, he still refuses to take a BB. He's walked only 5 times in 103 AB, and his OBP is only .24 higher than his BA. With the Astros season nearing an early termination, he'll get the call back up soon. Johnson hit .227/0/2 in 22 AB earlier this year for the 'Stros. Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam's awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball! We'd love to hear your thoughts on AAA ball. Hit us up on Twitter. Twitter.com/thefantasyfix Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Featured Blog, Minor Leagues, AAA, The Farm Report MLB, NL, AL, Michael Brantley, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Desmond Jennings, Jason Castro, Logan Morrison, Jake Arrieta, Jeremy Hellickson, Carlos Carrasco, Madison Bumganer, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Chris Johnson, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Florida Marlina, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, |
